Vehicle Electrification Could Require 55% More Copper Mines in the Next 30 Years (ief.org) 153
Long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 shares the announcement of a new report from the International Energy Forum:
The seemingly universal presumption persists that the copper needed for the green transition will somehow be available... This paper addresses this issue by projecting copper supply and demand from 2018 to 2050 and placing both in the historical context of copper mine output...
Just to meet business-as-usual trends, 115% more copper must be mined in the next 30 years than has been mined historically until now. To electrify the global vehicle fleet requires bringing into production 55% more new mines than would otherwise be needed... Our main purpose... is to communicate the magnitude of the copper mining challenge to the broader public that is less familiar with upstream resource issues.
"On the other hand, hybrid electric vehicle manufacture would require negligible extra copper mining..." the report points out.
Wikipedia describes the non-profit as a 73-country organization promoting dialogue about the world's energy needs. The group's announcement ends with a hope that the report "will promote discussion and formulation of alternative policies to be certain the developing world can catch up with the developed world while global initiatives advance with the green energy transition."
Just to meet business-as-usual trends, 115% more copper must be mined in the next 30 years than has been mined historically until now. To electrify the global vehicle fleet requires bringing into production 55% more new mines than would otherwise be needed... Our main purpose... is to communicate the magnitude of the copper mining challenge to the broader public that is less familiar with upstream resource issues.
"On the other hand, hybrid electric vehicle manufacture would require negligible extra copper mining..." the report points out.
Wikipedia describes the non-profit as a 73-country organization promoting dialogue about the world's energy needs. The group's announcement ends with a hope that the report "will promote discussion and formulation of alternative policies to be certain the developing world can catch up with the developed world while global initiatives advance with the green energy transition."
Public Transit (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Public Transit (Score:5, Interesting)
One of the promises of self-driving cars is the public transit fleet.
Imagine a live demand routed transit network that does instant carpooling. Four to a car, all pick-ups and drop-offs along the main route for minimal delay. And some routes could scale up to using buses, because large numbers of people are going from the same area to the same area.
They'll probably need partitioning to avoid the inevitable assault (either an actual crime or just socially or hygienically-offensive person), but it's not exactly an insoluble issue.
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Sounds horrible. All I see is harassment and sick people sharing with multiple strangers in close quarters everyday who know where I live.
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No. Multiple strangers who know which bus stop you use.
Before I lived where I do now (which is 100m from the food shop, 200m from the computer shop, and 400m from the library), I had a choice of 3 bus routes from home to different parts of the town centre, all on 10~15 minute cycles through the business day. I just used whichever went closest to which ever place I wanted to go to first, and got a "day ticket" which entitled me to use any b
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Lots of people have imagined a lot of forms of PRT which are like what you are describing, but only the ones on some type of elevated rail make sense. (Cue Simpsons references in 3, 2, 1) The use of all of this valuable ground-level real estate for vehicles on pneumatic tires is absurd. 50% of all marine microplastics come from tires!
Part of what makes PRT more desirable than buses is what you say about partitioning. You have it through the virtue of having multiple vehicles. The vehicles can be virtually l
Re:Public Transit (Score:5, Interesting)
I use public transport a lot, mainly because I hate driving even more. But the old saying is true: public transport takes you from where you aren't to where you don't really want to go in more time than you want to spend.
People hate public transport and I fully understand why because even I hate it too.
Re:Public Transit (Score:5, Interesting)
It's also shit for tasks that require the ability to carry a lot of items, like buying groceries, getting things from stores, going to the dump/recycling center, etc. Also shit for going to recreational areas where you want to bring bikes/camping stuff/etc. that you need to haul in and out. These things are compounded for the elderly, weak, sick, or infirm.
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Public transport is part of a mix of solution when you don't want to drive. If I can't use it for any reason, I call a cab or - infrequently - rent a vehicle. It's expensive, but over a year, calling a cab a dozen times and renting 2 or 3 times a year and riding the bus the rest of the time is way cheaper than owning a car.
Also, I organized my residence to be within reasonable cycling and walking distance from work and from the supermarket. This makes a surprising difference in my quality of life when the t
Re:Public Transit (Score:4, Insightful)
It's also shit for tasks that require the ability to carry a lot of items, like buying groceries [...]
Well, depends on how you shop...
If you go to the giant megastore and lay in provisions for a month, yeah, you're going to have an issue carrying fifty-seven bags on the bus. If you shop day-to-day, it's not as big of a deal...
Re:Public Transit (Score:4, Informative)
Shopping day-to-day is a massive timesink. One of the ways a car can bring value to your life
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For groceries, I would just get a couple of days' worth on my way home from work when I commuted regularly by train. For other things you can hopefully get delivery or if needs be rent a truck. In my city anyway, they have single stream recycling for everyday stuff, and you can schedule pickup for something big like an appliance.
Re:Public Transit (Score:5, Informative)
Anything but public transit huh?
Because when I want to go somewhere on a whim, I'm not standing around for half an hour waiting for a bus to take me someplace else so I can get on another bus or train and dilly dally getting to where I want.
Let me know when public transportation will take me to every place I want to go to on a Saturday without taking the entire day to do it.
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My kids' school is one km from my house.
The grocery store is two km from my house.
The closest bus stop is five km from my house.
Re:Public Transit (Score:4)
My kids' school is one km from my house.
The grocery store is two km from my house.
The closest bus stop is five km from my house.
My job is 40km from my house. I have to travel 50km in the wrong direction to catch a bus/train that goes to where I work. I can't however get home because I finish work 2-6hrs before public transport starts in the day.
Re:Public Transit (Score:4, Insightful)
My kids' school is one km from my house.
The grocery store is two km from my house.
The closest bus stop is five km from my house.
Because everyone is like you. Never been to Wyoming or Montana, have you?
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My kids' school is one km from my house.
The grocery store is two km from my house.
The closest bus stop is five km from my house.
Because everyone is like you. Never been to Wyoming or Montana, have you?
I think he's saying that 5 Km is a bit far away from a bus stop.
Re: Public Transit (Score:2)
So if you charge the car at home and go to the regular grocery store without free car charging so you come out ahead on cost?
Re:Public Transit (Score:4, Insightful)
That means you have dysfunctional or inadequate public transit, which is why people are advocating for spending money on it. No one wants to force anyone to use bad transit. We want to fund public transit at least at the level we fund roads so it becomes a viable alternative.
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It's not all or nothing, you can both own a car and use public transport.
For commuting at busy times, a well designed public transport system can be quicker and cheaper. That also helps alleviate traffic at the busiest times.
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> Anything but public transit huh?
"Yesterday, in response to the ridership’s fear of crime, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced the state will deploy 750 National Guard soldiers and 250 state troopers and MTA officers to New York City’s subways. This amounts to sending four Army rifle companies and an extra police precinct’s worth of troopers into the transit system."
https://www.vitalcitynyc.org/a... [vitalcitynyc.org]
Re: Public Transit (Score:2)
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But that means you want people to live in potentially very crowded "15 minute cities." Many don't want to live in some place as extremely crowded as Tokyo, Mumbai, Kolkata or parts of Chongqing in China.
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Because you enjoy being crammed in shoulder to shoulder with smelly obnoxious people harassing you.
I'm sure the mega wealthy who push these ideas will be right there next to you on the bus. Right after they get back from their WEF meeting they took a private jet to discuss planetary resource management for the little people.
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Because you enjoy being crammed in shoulder to shoulder with smelly obnoxious people harassing you.
I spent several of the most productive years of my career in a city, population thirty million, where everyone used transit. Very crowded, but everyone, rich or poor, was polite and well-behaved. No smelly or obnoxious people. The trains were always on time, with an average of two years between equipment breakdowns. No crime whatsoever, at any time of day.
What our cities need is a better grade of poor people and union workers who still take pride in their craftsmanship.
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I took the train for years in San Francisco. Whatever city you were in was dramatically different from my experience.
Of all the numerous unpleasant things that happened over the years I think the most awkward was the 4'10" woman whose face was pressed into my chest for 25 minutes until enough people got off that we got 2 inches of space between us. She wasn't smelly or anything. Just some office worker. But super awkward for both of us.
Cattle cars have more room.
The most stupid thing I saw was a rich hi
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I like travelling by train in Japan because it gives me time to do other stuff, which I can't if I'm driving. But Japan is a first world country with a decent public transport system, so you don't get many smelly and obnoxious people harassing you.
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I do. You might be happy living in a two tiered society where you're being "taken care of by your betters". I'm not anyone's pet.
Re:Public Transit (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm sure the mega wealthy who push these ideas will be right there next to you on the bus. Right after they get back from their WEF meeting they took a private jet to discuss planetary resource management for the little people.
You act like your income isnt beholden to major monied interests. Tell me, what reality do you exist in where "your betters" dont decide your income. Personally, I'd rather have forces like unions and government to have my back then the good will of most employers.
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My WEF masters do not determine my income. And that wasn't the topic, anyway.
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Excuses. Your "betters" determine your income just like everyone else.
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Dude you're off topic. Still. Again. And they don't. I haven't filed a 1040 in years. How about you?
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Your claim that not filing 1040 in years as not being under any ones else's thumbs is an appalling stupid argument.
And how about me, right? I work for an employee owned company who makes decisions based on my own well being and not just the company's. How about you?
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I'm retired. You work.
And you're still off topic.
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And your wage is still determined by what you can negotiate versus people with far more resources than yourself unless you're lucky enough to have a very limited skill set.
And hey, good for you if you have such a limited skill set that you're not at the negative end of negotiations considering the economic imbalance. Never the less, such a thing exists and you've been posting about it for a bit now.
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What tf are you talking about?
I will repeat myself: I AM RETIRED. I DO NOT WORK. I DO NOT NEGOTIATE WITH ANYONE FOR MONEY. I DO NOT HAVE A WAGE.
I retired early because I have a rare and critical combination of skills and experience. You got the retired part this time, right? Are you drinking?
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No, I just thought someone who was telling working people what's what would actually be working. I'm sorry I made a poor assumption then.
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I'm not anyone's pet.
You are. You just don't realize it.
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It doesn't have to be that way. In many places public transit works more like a Star Trek transporter. You go somewhere, go down some stairs, and come up another set of stairs in a distant place. It's not as fast but it's reasonably quick. The only problem is this kind of transit is alien to most parts of the US, and the few cities that do have it also don't manage their extremely mentally ill and/or criminal population.
The kind of transit you're thinking of is the only transit much of the US has built -- c
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It doesn't have to be that way. In many places public transit works more like a Star Trek transporter. You go somewhere, go down some stairs, and come up another set of stairs in a distant place. It's not as fast but it's reasonably quick. The only problem is this kind of transit is alien to most parts of the US, and the few cities that do have it also don't manage their extremely mentally ill and/or criminal population.
The kind of transit you're thinking of is the only transit much of the US has built -- commuter transit. That kind of transit sucks and most people don't use it.
While I live 2 miles from work, some days I would have to travel 100 miles away, get back at midnight, then go to another place, then have a social dinner that evening. Then travel a couple states away for a presentation. And that isn't the air travel. Some locations are in what is essentially wilderness. It's a use case. It might be a bit chaotic, but the pay more than makes up for that. Interesting places, and people - seldom the same thing.
And that is why I note that for some people with highly stru
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People like you have no idea the harm they do by popularizing such blatant lies. Our reaction to global warming was set back decades by people like you and people like you will be the reason why your own children's lives will be worse than your own.
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What an asshole. No one has made any meaningful amounts of money off of what you're describing.
If I could take you seriously I would but I cant so I wont. You're like all the angry signs I drove past when I visited the South for the first time in years right around this last Thanksgiving. There is no blue state parallel for you people's aggressively negative narrative that has no basis in reality. I would never shop at any blue state shop that put forth the level of negativity I saw that way.
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Now give me a hand hear then. If it was all just a joke which parts should I then take seriously and which parts should I not? Be very specific because we're currently not communicating very well.
Re: Public Transit (Score:2)
For a guy who claims to be smart you sure do seem to have a problem understanding that just because you don't see the climate catastrophe happening in the same time scale as you spilling your Cheerios does not mean it's not a catastrophe.
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I do not claim to be smart.
I am a total fucking idiot.
My name still applies. Don't be Dunning Kruger guy.
There's also recycling (Score:5, Interesting)
Wasn't it just a day or so ago we were reading about telcos ripping up their copper to make money on the recycling market, because they'd replaced it with fibre and they knew the mines couldn't keep up with copper demand?
Re:There's also recycling (Score:5, Informative)
Nope, the telcos haven't suddenly turned into hobos desperate for a bit of spare change. They're recycling copper wires because that's more profitable than throwing them in the landfill.
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>They're recycling copper wires because that's more profitable than throwing them in the landfill.
You just paraphrased my post.
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They wouldn't ever dream of paying a fortune to rip up their copper to "make" money on the recycling market, and don't give a shit whether mines keep up with copper demand.
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>They wouldn't ever dream of paying a fortune to rip up their copper to "make" money on the recycling market,
Except that's exactly what they're starting to do.
> and don't give a shit whether mines keep up with copper demand.
Except that's exactly what is driving up the price of copper and making ripping out dead lines for recycling profitable.
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Aren't phone lines 24 gauge? Just how many miles of phone line can one guy dig up per hour, how many lines do you think are buried in one spot that it would pay for an excavator and road repairs?
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Wasn't it just a day or so ago we were reading about telcos ripping up their copper to make money on the recycling market
I wonder what volume it can output compared to currrent production. I note It has the advantage of being already refined compared to mine output.
Coincidence (Score:2)
Funny how there's sudden and overwhelming support for industry and capitalism after we wipe out everyone's job and the right people hoover up all the excess cash.
Wages have been stagnant for 51 years and counting. But I'm sure that's just a coincidence.
Re:Coincidence (Score:5, Insightful)
Remember the days when it was perfectly normal for your boss to live in the same neighbourhood you did, because they didn't make THAT much more than you?
Every step up the chain has seen the same kind of wage gap grow, and by the time you get up to the CEO of a major corporation it's beyond obscene. Our economic system is fundamentally broken and our political system isn't equipped to correct it. Our culture isn't even terribly interested in doing anything about it because too many people think their turn at the top will come some day.
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I have no mod points, so I'm just popping in to say thanks for an insightful comment. Especially the last sentence - I never thought of the problem that way, but what you wrote has the ring of truth.
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Remember the days when it was perfectly normal for your boss to live in the same neighbourhood you did, because they didn't make THAT much more than you?
My old bosses ALWAYS had more than I did.
More $$. More vacation time. More & better cars. More kids. More ex-wives. More in alimony to pay out. More heart attacks. More funerals.
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Funny how there's sudden and overwhelming support for industry and capitalism
Support for industry and capitalism is not a new thing.
Open pit copper mines (Score:4, Interesting)
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It's the same with oil, there's a theory that the current generation of humans, we are it, there can't be another industrial revolution as we've tapped all the easily accessible oil fields so without modern tech already it's all inaccessible, at least for millions of years.
That said with copper, there's plenty of it, even in pit mines, it's just a matter of cost of extraction and high demand will drive mining efforts, copper is a very base commodity, every industry needs it so there is no shortage of produc
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There's lots of research into using carbon nanotubes for motor windings.
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I mean if we figure out scalable carbon nanotube mass production that's a sea change for a lot of things, a kind of holy grail of materials science but they've been chugging away at that one for at least a couple decades now but fingers crossed I want my space elevator.
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But "meh". To approach a "Western" lifestyle for everyone, we're already well into needing our third Earth-size planet. And by the look of things (to this geologist) neither Mars nor Venus has undergone a similar degree of re-melting and re-concentration of elements into (relatively) concentrated ores. Mars + Venus ~= 1 Earth, so where are
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Having been to Davos this year, I personally came away with the impression that even if these people did have some grand plans they actually lack the drive or the work ethic to really act on it. These people are insulated, being with the hundreds of workers who have to transform the entire town, then leave entirely so rich folks can take it over for 4 days and live in their fantasyland. It's giant companies pitching their wares to other giant companies and wealthy people.
Whether we think they care about t
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It would take (trust me on this, I'm a geologist) most of a mountain-building (and ocean re-flooring) cycle, say 100~150 Myr. So we've time for between 8 and 10 such cycles between now and the Sun boiling the oceans. That would probably s
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Appreciate you sharing your knowledge, it's interesting to know the timescale at which this type of stuff would replenish.
Can I ask when you say lubrication do you mean like literal lubrication that the plates move around in?
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High elevation isn't that much of a problem. Every orebody that is worth mining at (say) 5km elevation has sections at 3 km elevation, so you tunnel into those (a one-off cost) at 3km elevation (about airliner pressurisation level) and haul your ore out that way, after bringing the roof down in a controlled manner. If the ore body is worth developing, you can swallow that billion dollars set-up cost.
Once you've got the roof clear, you can move your benefi
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We could be recycling more. There is a lot of copper wiring that is becoming redundant as we switch to fibre optic. It's relatively easy to recycle too, it just needs the sheath stripping off and then you have large amounts of known quantity copper wiring that can either be re-used or recycled into new wires.
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The cumulative production curve on their Figure 1 indicates that we have more than enough resources to cover it by current USGS copper resource estimates [usgs.gov]. The curves shows that by about 60 years from now total cumulative mine production between now and then will be 1.2 billion tons out of 2.1 billion tons of copper resources currently know. Their infinite future demand (as fictional as this must necessarily be) of 5.8 billion tons (centuries from now) is about equal to the USGS resources estimates that incl
Quelle surprise (Score:2)
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EVs use neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy).
They are both used in motor magnets.
Most neodymium is produced in China. There are huge reserves in Greenland, but mining there is controversial.
Most dysprosium is also produced by China, but Australia is ramping up production.
This is an oil and gas boosting organization (Score:4, Interesting)
This is an oil-funded group with plenty of articles about the oil and gas industries. Big surprise they are throwing up blockers. Unlike with ICE engines, where we are basically at the end the line technologically, EVs are constantly innovating and changing. We'll come up with cheaper, easier technologies than the current copper wrap when it becomes economically important to do so.
This is just FUD.
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No, it is your country and most every tech country including those with massive renewable energy programs.
The need and shortage of copper for the next few decades is real and engineering and scientific reality.
On the other hand, your ignorance is the FUD
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I show up thread (with a link to a USGS resource report) that according to the estimates in this report we have enough identified resources to cover the demand for the next 60 years without even needing to do more exploration. With exploration resources would meet their ultimate infinite time demand.
So, no, the "copper shortage" is not real.
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Indeed, "The IEF member countries account for more than 90 percent of global oil and gas supply and demand." and "The IEF is promoted by a permanent Secretariat based in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia."
Note that "cobalt, copper and nickel are not required for many types of sodium-ion batteries" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Re: This is an oil and gas boosting organization (Score:2)
Oh i don't know, there probably will be some replacement. Maybe not in the EV industry directly, but in other industries that use copper. For example, aluminum house wiring really wasn't bad, it got a bad rap in the US for causing fires mostly because people didn't know how to work with it (particularly to splice it with existing copper). You also can't skimp on the gauge of it, there's more resistance so undersizing the wire is a bigger deal. But it really wouldn't be that big of a deal to swap to it again
Re: This is an oil and gas boosting organization (Score:2)
Aluminum is the obvious substitute. Yes it needs to be mined but there's also plenty of it going to lower value and higher volume uses today. The other obvious substitutes are effectively air, glass, and plastic: operating at higher voltages requiring less conductive material and more insulation, fiber optics and wireless for data. At the expense of even more semiconductors you can furt
Green New Deal (Score:2)
When they put out the "Green New Deal" legislation economists crunched the numbers and found out that all copper output (at current rates) until 2069 would be required by 2030.
Politicians called them nerds, passed the legislation and shut down the biggest copper mine in the Western Hemisphere (Guatemala) to "save the environment".
We have the government we deserve.
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We have the government we deserve.
That's odd - I usually figure that I have the government which other people deserve!
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When they put out the "Green New Deal" legislation economists crunched the numbers and found out that all copper output (at current rates) until 2069 would be required by 2030.
It would be impossible for it to be any other way - increased demand will bring increased production. Current production is only enough to meet current demand. It is how economics and mining work. There is no surprise here.
Politicians called them nerds, passed the legislation and shut down the biggest copper mine in the Western Hemisphere (Guatemala) to "save the environment".
We have the government we deserve.
I call bullshit on this. This never happened - it is still lying if you make stuff up about politicians. Multiple absurdities here. "Politicians" (U.S. is the implication) shutting down mining in another country? Do you know how international mining works? Second, Guatemala produces no co
doesn't pass the sniff test (Score:5, Interesting)
"On the other hand, hybrid electric vehicle manufacture would require negligible extra copper mining..." the report points out.
This could only be true if the extra copper demand was not in the vehicles themselves. If that were the case, what they're really saying is that if we don't achieve significant electrification, then we won't need extra copper. Duh.
A hybrid vehicle has all the ICE components plus a functional electric drivetrain. There is no way a hybrid vehicle's copper demand is only "negligibly" more than ICE. And it would need to be a plug-in electric, otherwise it accomplishes little toward electrification.
Just another oil-funded smear.
Re: doesn't pass the sniff test (Score:2)
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And isn't much of our electric grid aluminum?
Copper Shortage? (Score:2)
About the group that issued this report: (Score:2)
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Thank you.
This is just more disinformation from the fossil fuel industry.
Their claim that hybrids (which use fossil fuels) don't require more copper defies logic. Hybrids have electric motors, batteries and yes, wires. Just bull.
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Please explain the engineering reality of how hybrid cars which have electric motors, batteries, and wires don't require copper.
Do they use some magic fairy dust?
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Both TFA and TFS (which you obviously didn't read) state that hybrid cars don't require more copper.
I believe that hybrid cars have electric motors, batteries, controllers and lots of extra wires all of which require copper.
I'd like to get your expert engineering opinion on how that could be true.
Who are the IEF? (Score:2)
So, a consortium of interested parties from oil & gas producing countries, headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, are trying to disuade us from electric car adoption. What a surprise!
48V (Score:4, Insightful)
Does this consider if others follow Tesla and go 48V?
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Modern (ICE) cars are also using far more copper than before, it is not an EV only thing.
By going 48 Volts and using aluminium wires we need far less copper.
I do not think this will be an issue as we can recycle the copper from scrapped ICE cars.
And those copper mines require (Score:2)
Copious amounts of fossil fuels to create and run, and large amounts of petrochemicals to extract, transform, and refine the ores into useable metals
What about palladium used in ICE cars? (Score:3)
How about noble metals used in catalytic converters? Not claiming to know if this has bigger cost/impact compared to copper in EV, just curious.
Well ... (Score:2)
Not a problem (Score:2)
We can just 3D print the copper we need. Computers got better so logically so will 3D printing.
In case it doesn't we can just build a Space Elevator and mine the asteroids and colonize Mars incidentally on the way there.
Totally realistic and plausible.
What about non-metalic material research? (Score:2)
Are we stuck behind patents here? Or does nobody know how to make organic materials to help out?
Or mixing cheaper materials in to stretch existing supplies?
Or recycling what we throw out?
Or...
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In shorter term a replacement is aluminium https://www.wired.com/story/ca... [wired.com]
Longer term graphene https://www.bosch.com/stories/... [bosch.com]
"On the other hand, hybrid electric .." (Score:2)
So in the essence smaller electric motors mean lower consumption of copper, but why do they want to add a clunky inefficient combustion engine .. (because otherwise they would be "running on empty")
The real twist is, that we need a sensible limit of power potential in electric vehicles, removing the brutal acceleration, yet due to the properties of the the electric engine to provide yet much more than enough acceleration that you are still better than most double-clutched ICE cars.
The bigger electric motors
So who sponsored this research? (Score:3)
It wouldn't happen to be Toyota would it?
aluminum (Score:2)
Aluminum is a pretty good conductor.