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Power Transportation

Vehicle Electrification Could Require 55% More Copper Mines in the Next 30 Years (ief.org) 153

Long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 shares the announcement of a new report from the International Energy Forum: The seemingly universal presumption persists that the copper needed for the green transition will somehow be available... This paper addresses this issue by projecting copper supply and demand from 2018 to 2050 and placing both in the historical context of copper mine output...

Just to meet business-as-usual trends, 115% more copper must be mined in the next 30 years than has been mined historically until now. To electrify the global vehicle fleet requires bringing into production 55% more new mines than would otherwise be needed... Our main purpose... is to communicate the magnitude of the copper mining challenge to the broader public that is less familiar with upstream resource issues.

"On the other hand, hybrid electric vehicle manufacture would require negligible extra copper mining..." the report points out.

Wikipedia describes the non-profit as a 73-country organization promoting dialogue about the world's energy needs. The group's announcement ends with a hope that the report "will promote discussion and formulation of alternative policies to be certain the developing world can catch up with the developed world while global initiatives advance with the green energy transition."
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Vehicle Electrification Could Require 55% More Copper Mines in the Next 30 Years

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  • Public Transit (Score:5, Insightful)

    by basecastula ( 2556196 ) <basecase.fmNO@SPAMgmail.com> on Saturday June 01, 2024 @04:35PM (#64516115)
    Anything but public transit huh?
    • Re:Public Transit (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @04:57PM (#64516155)

      One of the promises of self-driving cars is the public transit fleet.

      Imagine a live demand routed transit network that does instant carpooling. Four to a car, all pick-ups and drop-offs along the main route for minimal delay. And some routes could scale up to using buses, because large numbers of people are going from the same area to the same area.

      They'll probably need partitioning to avoid the inevitable assault (either an actual crime or just socially or hygienically-offensive person), but it's not exactly an insoluble issue.

      • Sounds horrible. All I see is harassment and sick people sharing with multiple strangers in close quarters everyday who know where I live.

        • multiple strangers in close quarters everyday who know where I live.

          No. Multiple strangers who know which bus stop you use.

          Before I lived where I do now (which is 100m from the food shop, 200m from the computer shop, and 400m from the library), I had a choice of 3 bus routes from home to different parts of the town centre, all on 10~15 minute cycles through the business day. I just used whichever went closest to which ever place I wanted to go to first, and got a "day ticket" which entitled me to use any b

      • Lots of people have imagined a lot of forms of PRT which are like what you are describing, but only the ones on some type of elevated rail make sense. (Cue Simpsons references in 3, 2, 1) The use of all of this valuable ground-level real estate for vehicles on pneumatic tires is absurd. 50% of all marine microplastics come from tires!

        Part of what makes PRT more desirable than buses is what you say about partitioning. You have it through the virtue of having multiple vehicles. The vehicles can be virtually l

    • Re:Public Transit (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Rosco P. Coltrane ( 209368 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @05:12PM (#64516191)

      I use public transport a lot, mainly because I hate driving even more. But the old saying is true: public transport takes you from where you aren't to where you don't really want to go in more time than you want to spend.

      People hate public transport and I fully understand why because even I hate it too.

      • Re:Public Transit (Score:5, Interesting)

        by systemd-anonymousd ( 6652324 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @05:33PM (#64516221)

        It's also shit for tasks that require the ability to carry a lot of items, like buying groceries, getting things from stores, going to the dump/recycling center, etc. Also shit for going to recreational areas where you want to bring bikes/camping stuff/etc. that you need to haul in and out. These things are compounded for the elderly, weak, sick, or infirm.

        • Public transport is part of a mix of solution when you don't want to drive. If I can't use it for any reason, I call a cab or - infrequently - rent a vehicle. It's expensive, but over a year, calling a cab a dozen times and renting 2 or 3 times a year and riding the bus the rest of the time is way cheaper than owning a car.

          Also, I organized my residence to be within reasonable cycling and walking distance from work and from the supermarket. This makes a surprising difference in my quality of life when the t

        • Re:Public Transit (Score:4, Insightful)

          by R3d M3rcury ( 871886 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @07:30PM (#64516421) Journal

          It's also shit for tasks that require the ability to carry a lot of items, like buying groceries [...]

          Well, depends on how you shop...

          If you go to the giant megastore and lay in provisions for a month, yeah, you're going to have an issue carrying fifty-seven bags on the bus. If you shop day-to-day, it's not as big of a deal...

        • by flink ( 18449 )

          For groceries, I would just get a couple of days' worth on my way home from work when I commuted regularly by train. For other things you can hopefully get delivery or if needs be rent a truck. In my city anyway, they have single stream recycling for everyday stuff, and you can schedule pickup for something big like an appliance.

    • Re:Public Transit (Score:5, Informative)

      by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @05:34PM (#64516227)

      Anything but public transit huh?

      Because when I want to go somewhere on a whim, I'm not standing around for half an hour waiting for a bus to take me someplace else so I can get on another bus or train and dilly dally getting to where I want.

      Let me know when public transportation will take me to every place I want to go to on a Saturday without taking the entire day to do it.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        My kids' school is one km from my house.

        The grocery store is two km from my house.

        The closest bus stop is five km from my house.

        • by Computershack ( 1143409 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @05:58PM (#64516249)

          My kids' school is one km from my house.

          The grocery store is two km from my house.

          The closest bus stop is five km from my house.

          My job is 40km from my house. I have to travel 50km in the wrong direction to catch a bus/train that goes to where I work. I can't however get home because I finish work 2-6hrs before public transport starts in the day.

        • Re:Public Transit (Score:4, Insightful)

          by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @06:27PM (#64516303)

          My kids' school is one km from my house.

          The grocery store is two km from my house.

          The closest bus stop is five km from my house.

          Because everyone is like you. Never been to Wyoming or Montana, have you?

          • My kids' school is one km from my house.

            The grocery store is two km from my house.

            The closest bus stop is five km from my house.

            Because everyone is like you. Never been to Wyoming or Montana, have you?

            I think he's saying that 5 Km is a bit far away from a bus stop.

      • Re:Public Transit (Score:4, Insightful)

        by flink ( 18449 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @08:29PM (#64516521)

        That means you have dysfunctional or inadequate public transit, which is why people are advocating for spending money on it. No one wants to force anyone to use bad transit. We want to fund public transit at least at the level we fund roads so it becomes a viable alternative.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        It's not all or nothing, you can both own a car and use public transport.

        For commuting at busy times, a well designed public transport system can be quicker and cheaper. That also helps alleviate traffic at the busiest times.

    • by NFN_NLN ( 633283 )

      > Anything but public transit huh?

      "Yesterday, in response to the ridership’s fear of crime, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced the state will deploy 750 National Guard soldiers and 250 state troopers and MTA officers to New York City’s subways. This amounts to sending four Army rifle companies and an extra police precinct’s worth of troopers into the transit system."

      https://www.vitalcitynyc.org/a... [vitalcitynyc.org]

    • Public transit? I guess if I want to catch a nice Fent high from the "temporarily unhoused" guy in the back seat then sure, why not?
    • But that means you want people to live in potentially very crowded "15 minute cities." Many don't want to live in some place as extremely crowded as Tokyo, Mumbai, Kolkata or parts of Chongqing in China.

  • by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @04:44PM (#64516125)

    Wasn't it just a day or so ago we were reading about telcos ripping up their copper to make money on the recycling market, because they'd replaced it with fibre and they knew the mines couldn't keep up with copper demand?

    • by penguinoid ( 724646 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @05:03PM (#64516171) Homepage Journal

      Nope, the telcos haven't suddenly turned into hobos desperate for a bit of spare change. They're recycling copper wires because that's more profitable than throwing them in the landfill.

      • >They're recycling copper wires because that's more profitable than throwing them in the landfill.

        You just paraphrased my post.

        • They wouldn't ever dream of paying a fortune to rip up their copper to "make" money on the recycling market, and don't give a shit whether mines keep up with copper demand.

          • >They wouldn't ever dream of paying a fortune to rip up their copper to "make" money on the recycling market,

            Except that's exactly what they're starting to do.

            > and don't give a shit whether mines keep up with copper demand.

            Except that's exactly what is driving up the price of copper and making ripping out dead lines for recycling profitable.

            • Aren't phone lines 24 gauge? Just how many miles of phone line can one guy dig up per hour, how many lines do you think are buried in one spot that it would pay for an excavator and road repairs?

              • by gwjgwj ( 727408 )
                They are in conduits. You don't have to excavate to replace the cable. And by removing them you make place for fiber.
    • Wasn't it just a day or so ago we were reading about telcos ripping up their copper to make money on the recycling market

      I wonder what volume it can output compared to currrent production. I note It has the advantage of being already refined compared to mine output.

  • Funny how there's sudden and overwhelming support for industry and capitalism after we wipe out everyone's job and the right people hoover up all the excess cash.

    Wages have been stagnant for 51 years and counting. But I'm sure that's just a coincidence.

    • Re:Coincidence (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @04:52PM (#64516141)

      Remember the days when it was perfectly normal for your boss to live in the same neighbourhood you did, because they didn't make THAT much more than you?

      Every step up the chain has seen the same kind of wage gap grow, and by the time you get up to the CEO of a major corporation it's beyond obscene. Our economic system is fundamentally broken and our political system isn't equipped to correct it. Our culture isn't even terribly interested in doing anything about it because too many people think their turn at the top will come some day.

      • I have no mod points, so I'm just popping in to say thanks for an insightful comment. Especially the last sentence - I never thought of the problem that way, but what you wrote has the ring of truth.

      • Remember the days when it was perfectly normal for your boss to live in the same neighbourhood you did, because they didn't make THAT much more than you?

        My old bosses ALWAYS had more than I did.

        More $$. More vacation time. More & better cars. More kids. More ex-wives. More in alimony to pay out. More heart attacks. More funerals.

        /satire or sarcasm ?

    • Funny how there's sudden and overwhelming support for industry and capitalism

      Support for industry and capitalism is not a new thing.

  • by klipclop ( 6724090 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @04:48PM (#64516131)
    Most copper mines are low grade open pit mines. There's lots of known copper resources out there, but they're low grade and need to be open pit mined. If I also understand it, the easy to reach copper resources have already been mined and now it's the high elevation or deeper resources left. (and expensive to mine). I'm not sure we can replace ICE to EV 1 for 1....
    • It's the same with oil, there's a theory that the current generation of humans, we are it, there can't be another industrial revolution as we've tapped all the easily accessible oil fields so without modern tech already it's all inaccessible, at least for millions of years.

      That said with copper, there's plenty of it, even in pit mines, it's just a matter of cost of extraction and high demand will drive mining efforts, copper is a very base commodity, every industry needs it so there is no shortage of produc

      • There's lots of research into using carbon nanotubes for motor windings.

        • I mean if we figure out scalable carbon nanotube mass production that's a sea change for a lot of things, a kind of holy grail of materials science but they've been chugging away at that one for at least a couple decades now but fingers crossed I want my space elevator.

        • Looking at the loom in my car - the motor windings are probably a lot less than half the copper count. Routing that current (and sensing) around the car is a lot of wire.

          But "meh". To approach a "Western" lifestyle for everyone, we're already well into needing our third Earth-size planet. And by the look of things (to this geologist) neither Mars nor Venus has undergone a similar degree of re-melting and re-concentration of elements into (relatively) concentrated ores. Mars + Venus ~= 1 Earth, so where are

      • It's the same with oil, there's a theory that the current generation of humans, we are it, there can't be another industrial revolution as we've tapped all the easily accessible oil fields so without modern tech already it's all inaccessible, at least for millions of years.

        It would take (trust me on this, I'm a geologist) most of a mountain-building (and ocean re-flooring) cycle, say 100~150 Myr. So we've time for between 8 and 10 such cycles between now and the Sun boiling the oceans. That would probably s

        • Appreciate you sharing your knowledge, it's interesting to know the timescale at which this type of stuff would replenish.

          Can I ask when you say lubrication do you mean like literal lubrication that the plates move around in?

          • There is a theory that the incorporation of water into the descending slab at a subduction zone returns significant amounts of water to the mantle, lowering viscosity and so speeding up convection. Certainly the lab work strongly suggests that water is incorporated, and the resultant rocks (serpentinised gabbros, versus "fresh" gabbros ; similarly altered eclogites) are mechanically weaker than the original rocks. But, large amounts water are also driven out of the descending slab into the overlying mantle
    • now it's the high elevation or deeper resources left

      High elevation isn't that much of a problem. Every orebody that is worth mining at (say) 5km elevation has sections at 3 km elevation, so you tunnel into those (a one-off cost) at 3km elevation (about airliner pressurisation level) and haul your ore out that way, after bringing the roof down in a controlled manner. If the ore body is worth developing, you can swallow that billion dollars set-up cost.

      Once you've got the roof clear, you can move your benefi

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      We could be recycling more. There is a lot of copper wiring that is becoming redundant as we switch to fibre optic. It's relatively easy to recycle too, it just needs the sheath stripping off and then you have large amounts of known quantity copper wiring that can either be re-used or recycled into new wires.

    • The cumulative production curve on their Figure 1 indicates that we have more than enough resources to cover it by current USGS copper resource estimates [usgs.gov]. The curves shows that by about 60 years from now total cumulative mine production between now and then will be 1.2 billion tons out of 2.1 billion tons of copper resources currently know. Their infinite future demand (as fictional as this must necessarily be) of 5.8 billion tons (centuries from now) is about equal to the USGS resources estimates that incl

  • And swathes of rare earths and probably other stuff too.
    • EVs use neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy).

      They are both used in motor magnets.

      Most neodymium is produced in China. There are huge reserves in Greenland, but mining there is controversial.

      Most dysprosium is also produced by China, but Australia is ramping up production.

  • by wonkavader ( 605434 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @06:04PM (#64516261)

    This is an oil-funded group with plenty of articles about the oil and gas industries. Big surprise they are throwing up blockers. Unlike with ICE engines, where we are basically at the end the line technologically, EVs are constantly innovating and changing. We'll come up with cheaper, easier technologies than the current copper wrap when it becomes economically important to do so.

    This is just FUD.

    • No, it is your country and most every tech country including those with massive renewable energy programs.

      The need and shortage of copper for the next few decades is real and engineering and scientific reality.

      On the other hand, your ignorance is the FUD

      • I show up thread (with a link to a USGS resource report) that according to the estimates in this report we have enough identified resources to cover the demand for the next 60 years without even needing to do more exploration. With exploration resources would meet their ultimate infinite time demand.

        So, no, the "copper shortage" is not real.

    • by Samare ( 2779329 )

      Indeed, "The IEF member countries account for more than 90 percent of global oil and gas supply and demand." and "The IEF is promoted by a permanent Secretariat based in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia."

      Note that "cobalt, copper and nickel are not required for many types of sodium-ion batteries" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

  • When they put out the "Green New Deal" legislation economists crunched the numbers and found out that all copper output (at current rates) until 2069 would be required by 2030.

    Politicians called them nerds, passed the legislation and shut down the biggest copper mine in the Western Hemisphere (Guatemala) to "save the environment".

    We have the government we deserve.

    • We have the government we deserve.

      That's odd - I usually figure that I have the government which other people deserve!

    • When they put out the "Green New Deal" legislation economists crunched the numbers and found out that all copper output (at current rates) until 2069 would be required by 2030.

      It would be impossible for it to be any other way - increased demand will bring increased production. Current production is only enough to meet current demand. It is how economics and mining work. There is no surprise here.

      Politicians called them nerds, passed the legislation and shut down the biggest copper mine in the Western Hemisphere (Guatemala) to "save the environment".

      We have the government we deserve.

      I call bullshit on this. This never happened - it is still lying if you make stuff up about politicians. Multiple absurdities here. "Politicians" (U.S. is the implication) shutting down mining in another country? Do you know how international mining works? Second, Guatemala produces no co

  • by dfghjk ( 711126 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @06:49PM (#64516347)

    "On the other hand, hybrid electric vehicle manufacture would require negligible extra copper mining..." the report points out.

    This could only be true if the extra copper demand was not in the vehicles themselves. If that were the case, what they're really saying is that if we don't achieve significant electrification, then we won't need extra copper. Duh.

    A hybrid vehicle has all the ICE components plus a functional electric drivetrain. There is no way a hybrid vehicle's copper demand is only "negligibly" more than ICE. And it would need to be a plug-in electric, otherwise it accomplishes little toward electrification.

    Just another oil-funded smear.

  • Didn't I just read an article about how the telcos were looking at a windfall by retrieving all their copper that's being replaced by fiber? Sounded like we were going to be up to our ears in copper!
  • "Headquartered in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, The International Energy Forum ... is governed by an executive board which is composed of 31 representatives of ministries of the respective member states.... The IEF member countries account for more than 90 percent of global oil and gas supply and demand." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
    • by mspohr ( 589790 )

      Thank you.
      This is just more disinformation from the fossil fuel industry.
      Their claim that hybrids (which use fossil fuels) don't require more copper defies logic. Hybrids have electric motors, batteries and yes, wires. Just bull.

  • You might want to read the IEF's Wikipedia page before you go any further with this report, especially this bit, "The IEF member countries account for more than 90 percent of global oil and gas supply and demand." Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    So, a consortium of interested parties from oil & gas producing countries, headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, are trying to disuade us from electric car adoption. What a surprise!
  • 48V (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Quila ( 201335 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @08:54PM (#64516565)

    Does this consider if others follow Tesla and go 48V?

    • by kge ( 457708 )

      Modern (ICE) cars are also using far more copper than before, it is not an EV only thing.

      By going 48 Volts and using aluminium wires we need far less copper.
      I do not think this will be an issue as we can recycle the copper from scrapped ICE cars.

  • Copious amounts of fossil fuels to create and run, and large amounts of petrochemicals to extract, transform, and refine the ores into useable metals

  • by mike449 ( 238450 ) on Saturday June 01, 2024 @09:41PM (#64516647)

    How about noble metals used in catalytic converters? Not claiming to know if this has bigger cost/impact compared to copper in EV, just curious.

  • Copper mines for green energy puts holes in the earth, fossil fuels put holes in the atmosphere.
  • We can just 3D print the copper we need. Computers got better so logically so will 3D printing.
    In case it doesn't we can just build a Space Elevator and mine the asteroids and colonize Mars incidentally on the way there.
    Totally realistic and plausible.

  • Are we stuck behind patents here? Or does nobody know how to make organic materials to help out?

    Or mixing cheaper materials in to stretch existing supplies?

    Or recycling what we throw out?

    Or...

  • So in the essence smaller electric motors mean lower consumption of copper, but why do they want to add a clunky inefficient combustion engine .. (because otherwise they would be "running on empty")

    The real twist is, that we need a sensible limit of power potential in electric vehicles, removing the brutal acceleration, yet due to the properties of the the electric engine to provide yet much more than enough acceleration that you are still better than most double-clutched ICE cars.

    The bigger electric motors

  • by DrXym ( 126579 ) on Sunday June 02, 2024 @08:10AM (#64517261)

    It wouldn't happen to be Toyota would it?

  • Aluminum is a pretty good conductor.

C for yourself.

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