Falling Lithium Prices are Making Electric Cars More Affordable (seattletimes.com) 173
The New York Times reports:
Since January, the price of lithium has dropped nearly 20%, according to Benchmark Minerals, while sales of electric vehicles have soared. The price of cobalt, another important battery material, has fallen by more than half. Copper, essential to electric motors and batteries, has slipped by about 18%, at a time when U.S. mines and copper-rich countries such as Peru are struggling to increase production.
The price moves have confounded many analysts who predicted costs would stay high, or climb higher, slowing the transition to cleaner forms of transportation. Instead, the drop in commodity prices has made it easier for carmakers to cut prices for electric vehicles. This month, Tesla lowered the prices of its two most expensive cars, the Model S sedan and Model X sport utility vehicle, by thousands of dollars. That followed cuts in January by Tesla to its more affordable Model 3 and Model Y, and by Ford Motor to its Mustang Mach-E. The average price of an electric vehicle in the United States fell by $1,000 in February compared with January, according to Kelley Blue Book. "For electric vehicles, the major roadblock is cost," said Kang Sun, the CEO of Amprius Technologies, a young battery maker that this month announced plans for a factory in Colorado. The falling price of lithium, he said, "is going to promote EV sales."
Sun said he thinks prices could fall much further because demand for the metal has not risen as fast as some in the industry expected.... Ryan Melsert, CEO of American Battery Technology, attributed the recent decline in lithium prices to temporary factors like a seasonal slowdown in electric vehicle sales in China. "We expect to see very high prices for the foreseeable future," Melsert said. Vivek Chidambaram, the senior managing director for strategy at Accenture, the consulting firm, also expects the decline to be temporary. Lithium prices have fallen because sales of electric vehicles, while still brisk, are not growing as fast as automakers expected, he said. That has led suppliers to produce more than is needed.
The article notes America's Department of Energy is providing $3 billion in grants to create a domestic battery supply chain — partly because the supply of lithium has to increase 42-fold by 2050, according to the State Department's undersecretary for energy.
"We have to find additional sources of supply because 42 times is a lot," he tells the Times. "Right now, we don't have enough."
The price moves have confounded many analysts who predicted costs would stay high, or climb higher, slowing the transition to cleaner forms of transportation. Instead, the drop in commodity prices has made it easier for carmakers to cut prices for electric vehicles. This month, Tesla lowered the prices of its two most expensive cars, the Model S sedan and Model X sport utility vehicle, by thousands of dollars. That followed cuts in January by Tesla to its more affordable Model 3 and Model Y, and by Ford Motor to its Mustang Mach-E. The average price of an electric vehicle in the United States fell by $1,000 in February compared with January, according to Kelley Blue Book. "For electric vehicles, the major roadblock is cost," said Kang Sun, the CEO of Amprius Technologies, a young battery maker that this month announced plans for a factory in Colorado. The falling price of lithium, he said, "is going to promote EV sales."
Sun said he thinks prices could fall much further because demand for the metal has not risen as fast as some in the industry expected.... Ryan Melsert, CEO of American Battery Technology, attributed the recent decline in lithium prices to temporary factors like a seasonal slowdown in electric vehicle sales in China. "We expect to see very high prices for the foreseeable future," Melsert said. Vivek Chidambaram, the senior managing director for strategy at Accenture, the consulting firm, also expects the decline to be temporary. Lithium prices have fallen because sales of electric vehicles, while still brisk, are not growing as fast as automakers expected, he said. That has led suppliers to produce more than is needed.
The article notes America's Department of Energy is providing $3 billion in grants to create a domestic battery supply chain — partly because the supply of lithium has to increase 42-fold by 2050, according to the State Department's undersecretary for energy.
"We have to find additional sources of supply because 42 times is a lot," he tells the Times. "Right now, we don't have enough."
Battery Wars. (Score:3, Informative)
"...America's Department of Energy is providing $3 billion in grants to create a domestic battery supply chain — partly because the supply of lithium has to increase 42-fold by 2050..."
This statement creates a massive panic in a hype attempt to recover a 20% price drop by artificially creating future supply chain stress by assuming we'll never find another type of material to make a future battery out of.
This, is how wars get started.
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"how wars get started"? Poppycock.
Re:Battery Wars. (Score:5, Insightful)
We don't even need another material. There are sources of lithium we aren't even tapping yet. What we need is new ways to get lithium, and to stop making NMC batteries so we don't need cobalt or so much nickel. LFP has no Co, and a lot less Ni.
Re:Battery Wars. (Score:5, Informative)
Exactly this. I don't know where this notion that "lithium is rare" comes from, but it's not. Nevada clays alone have enough to transition the entire US fleet over to EVs, and then some. There's enough oceanic lithium to produce ~12 trillion EVs at $5/kg ($80 per pack), and the only reason we don't is that land resources are even cheaper. It's about 50% more common than lead, 40% as common as copper, concentrates nicely in specific locations, yet those locations can be found all over the world, so there's no risk of one country dominating the mining supply. And EVs use tiny amounts of it - it's 1-3% the mass of a battery.
People consistently make several mistakes:
Assuming that the price of lithium is due to "mining shortages". It's not. "Mines" (a sizable minority isn't even mined, but rather just sun-dried brine) have no issues with production. The recent shortage was due to refining capacity (which is primarily in China). Refining capacity was underbuilt. Like all industries, you have to forecast demand years in advance, and they underforecast. Which, to be fair, is very difficult to do right when you're dealing with an exponential growth curve.
Assuming "reserves figures" are all there is. It doesn't work that way. Reserves figures are "proven resources". If you have way more reserves than you need, you stop exploring for more. That doesn't mean there isn't any more, it just means you have no incentive to bother looking for more. With lithium, as a general rule, "looking for more" is has proven very easy. It's found concentrated in salt lakes, salars, salty clays, certain types of igneous rock, geothermal brines, oil well wastewater, etc.
Using outdated information: If all you think about when you think about lithium production is South American salars, your info is way out of date. Salars have been eclipsed by spodumene, while clays look likely to overtake spodumene at some point in the next decade.
Lithium is not a limiting mineral for battery production. The closest thing to a "limiting mineral" is nickel (cobalt would be, but it's been increasingly phased out, currently only used in higher-energy-density cells, with the lower end being taken up by LFP - which also does not use nickel). Nickel makes up the vast majority of the cathode mass in NMC/NCA (high energy) cells. As a general rule, batteries can't use ferronickel or even class 1 nickel powder (not economically, at least); they need highly pure nickel sulfate, which is produced from entirely different sources - nickel sulfide deposits, of which there just aren't that many (comparably) in the world vs., say, laterites. While there's been work (most notably, HPAL) to affordably produce battery-grade nickel sulfate from laterites, thusfar it's not taken off. Hopefully Tesla's process for producing cells from class 1 nickel powder and skipping sulfates altogether takes off, but even still, nickel supply will determine the market ratios between LFP and NMC/NCA.
LFP is of course basically mineral-unlimited, with its cathodes produced from iron (the most common industrial metal) reacted with phosphoric acid (one of the most common industrial acids, compounds from which farmers around the world dump on their fields in insane quantities). Both share graphite anodes, which can be either natural or synthetic graphite - the latter made from any carbon source. Both sides vie over whose graphite has the better performance. My understanding is that at present, natural is cheaper and higher energy density, while synthetic is higher longevity and higher power density.
Cathode and anode materials together make up the majority of the mass. Nextmost you have the electrolyte, which is mainly organic carbonates (petrochemical product). Think household solvents - their properties are pretty similar to that, though a bit more stable and somewhat less toxic. You also have the alumium cathode foil (literally, it's alumium foil, just high-grade) and the copper anode foil. It's
Re:Battery Wars. (Score:5, Interesting)
I forgot to mention, natural graphite (the minority at present, but growing) is basically very high-grade coal. Anywhere that has anthracite coal deposits, there's pretty good odds that there's some graphite deposits as well. It's a fuzzy line, because you can basically extract and refine the graphite content from pretty much any anthracite, it's just a question of cost, relative to how high the grade is. China has dominated (esp. in refining) due to low costs and a government focus on dominating battery mineral supplies, but African supplies are expected to overtake China this decade, with significant growth in North America and Australia as well. African supplies are mainly spread out over the southeast, a triangle from Tanzania to Namibia to Madagascar.
Graphite does have some threats to its future in batteries, in that everyone wants to reduce it - not due to cost or supply, but rather, it's just not great at its job. Doesn't hold that much lithium relative to its mass or volume. Everyone wants either high-silicon or lithium metal anodes, and we keep moving in that direction - it's just a question of when we get there. Silicon (already in use at low levels) has the challenge that it absorbs so much lithium that it pulverizes itself, while the challenges with metal have been dendrites and disconnected free metal surrounded by SEI (lost) - but both have increasingly-maturing techniques to counter their drawbacks.
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Gasoline from fossil fuels is still so prevalent in certain countries that they pay pennies per gallon while many others are screwed with prices several times higher. People often make the mistake that Greed is ever satisfied. Watch as common lithium is still treated like a "rare" commodity, simply because Greed can create that delusion, and often does successfully.
Hell, a lot of people still think marijuana is "deadly". Including Governments who treat it as worse than fentanyl. And an entire hemp indus
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Gasoline from fossil fuels is still so prevalent in certain countries that they pay pennies per gallon while many others are screwed with prices several times higher.
No, anyone getting gasoline that cheap is screwing everyone else over, because you can't accomplish that without obscene levels of pollution. Of course, most of the people paying a lot for it are also screwing everyone else, because the money isn't going to carbon fixing, bioremediation, cleanups, etc etc.
You're not also paying high prices so the shit coming out of the tailpipe is worry-free. AG diesel used in off-road engines isn't a LOT cheaper because it's dirty shitty fuel. It's simply not subject to Greed charging more taxes to maintain roads.
Hell, a lot of people still think marijuana is "deadly".
And for the same reason, those with a vested interest in disguising the truth are permitted to defraud us.
All the more reason my original point stands regarding how wars get started. Watch as Greed finds many new ways to mine this material, while Greed also finds many new ways to sell it as "rare" and justify taking from others to protect their own resources. The S
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AG diesel used in off-road engines isn't a LOT cheaper because it's dirty shitty fuel. It's simply not subject to Greed charging more taxes to maintain roads.
Roads do require maintenance. However, your assertion is incorrect, red diesel is taxed too [igentax.com]. The difference in taxes is typically less than twenty-five cents, and it's actually cheaper because of competition. A farmer commonly has a 500+ gallon diesel storage tank, they can afford to get it trucked in by someone more competitive.
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AG diesel used in off-road engines isn't a LOT cheaper because it's dirty shitty fuel. It's simply not subject to Greed charging more taxes to maintain roads.
Roads do require maintenance. However, your assertion is incorrect, red diesel is taxed too [igentax.com]. The difference in taxes is typically less than twenty-five cents, and it's actually cheaper because of competition. A farmer commonly has a 500+ gallon diesel storage tank, they can afford to get it trucked in by someone more competitive.
It's actually cheaper for both reasons, and those taxes vary by state being 2 to 3 times higher than what you're claiming. And it's quite incredible what competition can do to prices, isn't it? All the more reason we perhaps shouldn't buy into for-profit clickbait headlines regarding us having to solely rely on lithium until 2050, with an always-persistent threat of highly-profitable warmongering to secure it.
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The ironic thing is that in some areas, people don't bother with "Ag diesel", "reefer diesel", or "red diesel". Mainly because the effort it takes to ensure that the red dyed stuff does not wind up in the wrong tank makes the savings on taxes not worth it. So, people just buy the fuel + tax, and then file a tax refund form with the state to get the off-road used fuel tax refunded, which is a lot less of a pain than accidentally putting red diesel in a vehicle's tank that is driving across state lines, bec
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Not just pollution, but government subsidies to provide it cheaper than cost. Both Venezuela and Iran -- the two countries where gasoline is the cheapest in the world -- subsidize the price for the first XX liters. Raising the price of petrol to actual production costs has caused riots in those countries in the past.
See: https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Venezuela/gasoline_prices/ [globalpetrolprices.com] and https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Iran/gasoline_prices/ [globalpetrolprices.com]
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They're starting to use some nickel in the carbon anodes in LFP batteries now, so they may contain some nickel, just not very much. https://www.sciencedirect.com/... [sciencedirect.com]
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Research paper != actually used
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LFP has fatal flaw, at least in the north.
"The charging temperature range for LiFePO4 batteries is 0C to 55C.
It is not recommended to charge below 0C, theoretically, it is allowed a small current of 0.05C to 0.1C. However, charge under 0C will crystallize the lithium ions, thus reducing the effective capacity. So, if not necessary, do not charge below 0C."
https://sunonbattery.com/guide... [sunonbattery.com]
You also lose capacity as the temperature drops, somewhat more so than other batteries.
https://shop.gwl.eu/blog/LiFeP... [shop.gwl.eu]
Re:Battery Wars. (Score:4, Insightful)
LFP has fatal flaw, at least in the north.
"The charging temperature range for LiFePO4 batteries is 0C to 55C.
It is not recommended to charge below 0C, theoretically, it is allowed a small current of 0.05C to 0.1C. However, charge under 0C will crystallize the lithium ions, thus reducing the effective capacity. So, if not necessary, do not charge below 0C."
https://sunonbattery.com/guide... [sunonbattery.com]
You also lose capacity as the temperature drops, somewhat more so than other batteries.
https://shop.gwl.eu/blog/LiFeP... [shop.gwl.eu]
My understanding is that the first thing the EV batteries do when charging (or driving) is heat themselves to a more appropriate temperature.
There's certainly an efficiency loss, but it's not a "fatal flaw".
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Your understanding is correct. EV batteries are thermally managed. These aren't just oversized cell phones.
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That's because there isn't. Lithium is irreplaceable for high-density battery storage because it has an extreme electrode potential and extremely low weight. I mean literally extreme since there is no material with higher (well, lower since it has a minus sign) electrode potential [wikipedia.org] for a plain ionisation, and there is no lighter solid material.
You can play with all the other metals and components in batteries like nickel
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I don't get why people assume that producers of grid storage products don't know what they're doing.
Li-ion is being used because it's literally the cheapest for the role. That might (I daresay, almost certainly will) change some day, but that day is not today. ZEBRA for example is an inefficient use of nickel, and doesn't have production volumes backing it up anyway.
And I see no reason to see "lithium becoming more expensive in the long term". It's just too damned abundant, and we keep getting cheaper a
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Last I checked, The Slashdot Effect wasn't even enough to cripple a T-1 line, let alone start a war.
Nice try though.
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$2 KwH? You know why that's not going to happen? Because, this is Texas, and our 1300 KwH / mo of air conditioning would cost $2600 / month. If that happened even once, the people would clear out the state house by force, and replace those people by some that will not allow such a rape. Not being able to air condition in 105 degree Texas summer, and someone is going to get themselves a really bad name in a really big hurry. Tar and feathers comes to mind.
Re:NO THEY AREN'T (Score:5, Informative)
You need more insulation.
I have about 1,850 and my electric bill is $60 most of the year (and $37 of that is a connection fee). In the summer, it's $120 to $140 in june,july,september with a spike up to $190 in august.
If you are paying $600 a month or more...
1) Check PowerToChoose and get a new plan.
2) Add insulation to your attic.
3) Check your windows for leaks.
4) Consider a *few* particular windows to put in double pane storm windows.
5) Consider shade cloth or awnings for back windows with a sun exposure.
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Building a Barndo. It will be insulated within an inch of its life.
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A "tax break" only helps one who pays income taxes, alas: has income.
A retired house owner most likely does not pay any income tax.
I think you US guys should start becoming more rational. Figure out what "systematic problem" in "your system" causes this "problems" and start fixing them from the root up.
If you own a house in Europe: it is most certainly no problem at all to get a loan for energy related improvements. Completely regardless of your age, income situation etc. p.p.
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Unfortunately the right-wingers in the US push everything possible towards being written as tax credits, specifically so that they can't benefit poor people, retirees, students, etc. So, for example, the EV subsidy was originally written as a straight discount off of the purchase price in order to help poor and lower-middle class to buy EVs, the right-wingers forced it to change to tax credits. Grrr.
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Aren't going to be any poor people buying new cars. If they're buying new cars, they're not poor.
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Not sure I need more insulation. The house I left in Virginia, a bit smaller but not a lot, used 1350 KwH at times. I did have insanely efficient geothermal heat and cool, tho. But it was not as hot there. Anyway I think "more insulation" might get me down to maybe 1000 KwH, which would be $160.
Can't do insulation here, it's a rental. Building a Barndo that will be insulated within an inch of its life. Investigating Geo for here, although locals say "we don't do that", but saw a chart showing Dall
Re: NO THEY AREN'T (Score:2)
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$2 KwH? You know why that's not going to happen? Because, this is Texas,
Ah yes, Texas. Where just 2 years ago, 246 people died -- literally froze to death -- because the government refuses to require basic common sense -- that the power companies must winterize their equipment. You might not want to brag about Texas too much.
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It won't be $2/kWh right away. But there is a high probabilité that energy prices will (more or less) slowly rise in the near future. At that point, insulating your house may be a better choice than keeping your air conditionning up all the time. 105 degrees fahrenheit can easily be managed if you don't have a shitty house (as someone said: insulate the attic, open the windows early in the morning to allow fresh air in, close your curtains or have some shade in front of your windows...).
Have you ever c
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A friend of mine was in the US - long ago.
In a hotel.
We both worked at an energy company in Germany that time - long ago, but energy saving was a thing already.
So: his room was to hot. Windows could not be opened as they their not made to be opened. For some reason - did not made sense at that time of the year - the heating was running. The radiators had not valve/wheel to regulate the heat or close them.
So after being frustrated not being able to figure what to do, he called the room service.
A guy came in,
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I'm gues
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Being from Texas, this gets me wondering about something. What we desperately need is more advancements in cooling. The ideal would be a solid state (think Peltier, but something that is more efficient, and could have the cold side well separated from the hot side for better movement of heat) system that because it has no moving parts, can last indefinitely. Pretty much, what is needed in refrigeration is an advance similar to Dr. Goodenough's lithium battery, that adds more efficiency, and fewer moving
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I've been charging an EV at home since 2018, and it added a few percent to my home power bill. That's not going to cause the price of power to skyrocket. EVs don't take that much power, on average, to charge. The average daily drive in the US is 37 miles, which can recharge on a single 15 amp circuit overnight (i.e. off peak, when you're not using much power). No drama.
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Now what's the cost to own and operate an EV when electricity is $2/kWh?
Excepting inflation, that's simply ridiculous and isn't going to happen.
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If nothing else if it went that high it'd be cheaper to run a generator. Or install solar PV where you'd break even in less than a year.
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In a world where electricity is at $2/kWh, the manufacturing of your solar panel is gonna make it hard to recoup any cost. I am gonna go on a stretch here, and say that if electricity costs as much as $2/kWh, then the price of any other kind of energy will also be on the high end.
Energy is not just about running appliances, it is about making and manufacturing everything you interact with on a daily basis.
That reminds me of those famous words of Marie-Antoinette, when the people of Paris were starving right
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Energy is not just about running appliances, it is about making and manufacturing everything you interact with on a daily basis.
Yep, and thus would cause massive inflation even if that was the only factor.
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At the national average price of electricity, compared to the national average price of gasoline, my Tesla costs 1/4th as much per mile to drive as the gas vehicle it replaced. And electricity is (in well run states) regulated, so while the prices can go up over time, they can't go up unpredictably just because an investor wants more money (as gas prices did), and historically they go up more slowly than inflation, meaning that electricity gets cheaper over time, in constant dollars.
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I've already personally encountered chargers (they're at Disney) where charging a Tesla model 3 would actually cost more per mile than driving my ICE econobox.
I guess you looked wrong at the price. That does not make any sense. And: what ever one is charging, the modle makes no difference anyway.
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Wait until you find out what a gallon of fuel costs when it's not subsidized by war... and you will.
All forms of retail energy become increasingly more costly when you stop externalizing the costs. I recall it wasn't that long ago that natural gas was touted as a fantastic way to cut your heating costs. It was cheaper, until supply and demand did its usual thing.
"Energy star" just means it has a rating and, for some items, a sleep mode. This information is freely available, yet you still think "energy star" means efficient.
They are more efficient, track my kWh usage every month. Problem is, utility rate increases have negated the benefit. Sure, I'm still technically saving money, but it feels like a lateral move.
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Problem is, utility rate increases have negated the benefit. Sure, I'm still technically saving money, but it feels like a lateral move.
This is exactly the problem of energy consumption of the last 80 years: engineers increased efficiency of almost everything, but we used the added efficiency to just use more of everything.
Take today's ICE cars for instance. They are almost 3-4 times more efficient than the cars from the 60s. However, they weigh 3-4 times more. We used the added efficiency to add fancy features like electric windows, 12 speakers, more comfortable seats, electric heating (because our ass would freeze to death without that, r
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Wait until you find out what a gallon of fuel costs when it's not subsidized by war... and you will. Hint: Even more than we're paying now. Now, guess what happens to the price if they ever have to stop polluting when they refine crude, or if the fuel gets carbon taxed.
LOL. In Europe about 60-80% of gasoline price is taxes, and greenies still push propaganda that it's somehow "subsidized". No, subsidies run the other way around in this setup, and have been for a VERY long time. Or rather would be if EU leftists actually spent those taxes on what they promised, i.e. road maintenance and green infrastructure, rather than using them to buy votes.
Re:NO THEY AREN'T (Score:5, Insightful)
Sigh. Let's start at the beginning.
EVs stabilize power grids. They're a steady, predictable load that occurs primarily at off-peak hours. Fast charging isn't, but that's a minority, and can be buffered if needed. Overwhelmingly, though, EVs are a boon to power grids. They let operators get more usage out of existing infrastructure, aka more revenue without new costs.
What does "a boon to power grids", "more revenue without new costs" mean? It means any combination of the following:
1) Lower costs to consumers
2) Greater grid stability
3) Greater utility profits
How much each contributes to the total depends on the competitive and regulatory environment of your local grid. But what EVs don't do is make the overall picture worse.
One may counter, "well, that may be in the long term, but in the short term, it's more power demand!" Except, no to that as well. The simple fact is that grids build out faster than EVs can be built. So the only way said "short term disaster" can occur is if grid operators either:
1) Vastly underestimate how quickly EV adoption will spread in their area
2) Don't like money and don't want more of it.
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So yeah in theory it's perfectly possible, but it's not the reality we live in.
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1. Smart grid, at least smart enough for this, has been here for decades. I mean, my pool pump is on a power plant controlled switch, my parent's water heater is, etc... We get a smallish discount on our power for having it. You can get the system installed for HVAC systems as well.
The whole setup is controlled by strict service level contracts. They can only shut the stuff off for a relatively limited time.
2. Draining electricity from EVs: Same deal as the above
A: They could only "drain", or have th
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If less than 1% of cars can do car2grid, then why did you talk about "waking up to find an immobile brick..."? If the car can't put power onto the grid, the WORST that the power company can do is not charge it, potentially only by cutting the power to the entire house.
Besides, I covered that bit in 2A: "if the car is enabled to do so". Less than 1%, by your own words, can do so.
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Uhhhh. I know from experience how leftist governments operate once their idiotic policies inevitably start failing. With totalitarian fascist measures. So yeah, enjoy your ability to decide whether "your car is enabled to". While it's still legal. To unplug your car despite The Party needing every comrade to do his part to keep the grid from falling apart.
As far as I can tell, most power companies are for-profit companies, so any decision would be made in a boardroom with an eye to maximizing profits; for examples, look at PG&E or Texas.
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...leftist... fascist...
These are diametrically opposed ideologies.
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No. In this reality, where the vast majority of charging is (A) steady, (B) predictable, and (C) off-peak. No smart-grid needed.
And you don't even seem to understand the concept of smart-grid-connected charging anyway, wherein the user sets the desired charge level and the time by which it needs to be achieved, and the car and grid negotiate on when - not IF - to make it happen.
Re: NO THEY AREN'T (Score:2)
Re: NO THEY AREN'T (Score:2)
Solar and storage will
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Your pivot to an entirely different topic (grid reliability on a 100% renewable system) is duly noted.
First off, wind just reinforces my point, as nighttime wind is wasteful without nighttime consumers. But secondly, since you no longer want to talk about EVs and instead want to talk about how to make a reliable grid with intermittents:
First off, the grid is already intermittent, and has been for centuries. Mainly intermittent demand. Such as, say, the sun pops out from behind the clouds, and everyone's a
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Re:NO THEY AREN'T (Score:5, Insightful)
It's like you didn't even read the comment you replied to.
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That's a few percent increase in power consumption over almost 30 years. That's nothing. By your logic the grid would have collapsed many decades ago, when home and work HVAC rolled out everywhere, doubling residential and office power consumption. That of course didn't happen, either.
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There's already a huge difference between peak electricity usage and off-hours. Power plants that currently turn off turbines or generate less can just keep them on
Re:NO THEY AREN'T (Score:5, Insightful)
And it's not just generation; transmission infrastructure faces the same situation. An at-capacity line can't transmit more power to sell during the day. It can at night.
The TL/DR is "more money to utilities, with minimal costs to them". And from there, the three possibilities:
1) They reinvest the money, into making a more resilient grid.
2) They cut rates
3) They pocket it.
Which of the three happens, and how much, depends on how competitive the environment is and its regulatory environment.
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40amp charge x .8 (for safety) x 220v is an instant load demand of 4.4KW per car.
You might want to check your math. And I don't even know what you mean by .8 for safety.
Re: NO THEY AREN'T (Score:4, Insightful)
And yet during that Texas storm brand new f-150 hybrids were powering people homes because they suddenly had an backup electric source. They provided enough power for lights and heat.
I am in NH 2 weeks ago we got hit with 35" of snow in 24 hours. Not just dry powder but wet heavy snow. Trees snapped like twigs.
People were out of power for days as crews tried to clean up the mess.
Most of them had generators or friends with generators who didn't lose power.
Why because the grid is unreliable in storms. And backup is required.
I have used it once in 2 years. But we have it.
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This reminds me of my grandparent's house in upstate NY(roll downhill into Vermont), up in the mountains there.
They could heat the house with at least three different fuels, and only 1 of them required any electricity at all.
Re:NO THEY AREN'T (Score:4, Insightful)
Tell that to the 246 people who died in Texas in 2021 -- literally froze to death -- because the power companies refuse to winterize their equipment.
That is purely a failure of capitalism; the fact that power company executives have no been put in front of a firing squad for this is a secondary failure.
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You can also detonate a set of nuclear warheads in the Sahara desert periodically to create a light cooling effect in the atmosphere. It would be less far less intense than a nuclear winter, but enough to help and we already have the nuclear warheads and barren land available.
Yeah, please let's not do that. I'm all for *not* crippling our civilization through drastic anti-GW measures, but if that's the alternative you're proposing then starting Greta Thunberg worship doesn't actually sound so bad in comparison.
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You can also detonate a set of nuclear warheads in the Sahara desert periodically to create a light cooling effect in the atmosphere.
That would work, but we are using our spare nukes to destroy hurricanes.
The price of cars is still shooting way up (Score:3)
I don't see how the current car market is at all sustainable. We're rapidly pricing a substantial number of workers out of car ownership. That would be fine if cars were a luxury but besides a handful of people living in San Francisco and New York and maybe one or two other major cities you either have a car or you don't have a job. You can't be reliable enough to function without one.
And while electric cars need less maintenance in a lot of ways you still have to deal with those battery packs and the need to replace them at some point.
Re: The price of cars is still shooting way up (Score:3)
Yep, you want to see something funny? Go on ford.com (switch to the US site if you somehow get region-hijacked if coming from some other place) and then "Cars" and see how many there are. Spoiler: only the Mustang, well two of them: 2022 and 2023. You can't make this shit up.
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It all leads to either self driving cars as a service, or, remind me again how soon after falling to fascism did Germany start building a "People's Car"? It could go either way.
I'd be all thrilled about the prospect of an affordable brand new carbon-neutral socialism-mobile, except for the fact that people like me will probably be in concentration camps by that point. I wish history repeating itself could be more like Hollywood reboots, where they take out aspects of the original which aged poorly.
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And while electric cars need less maintenance in a lot of ways you still have to deal with those battery packs and the need to replace them at some point.
Just like for ICE cars you will need to replace the engine and or the transmission at some point. Granted that electric cars haven't been on the road long enough to have good statistics on battery lifetime, but they are engineered to last in the multiple hundreds of thousands of miles, so I wouldn't expect the battery lifespan to be significantly different than an ICE engine or transmission.
Re:The price of cars is still shooting way up (Score:4, Informative)
And EVs have been around for long enough to see what the replacement process looks like in the real world, too - by the time there was enough demand to actually offer them, the Tesla Roadster's battery got a replacement pack for ~70% of the original price (not accounting for inflation) that offered 40% more range. Of course, it was always going to be expensive, as the Roadster's battery had to be handbuilt.
That said, most people would not replace a dead battery pack (which for a typical EV would be ~15 years or so after the purchase... they're typically warrantied for 8 years) with a new pack, just like people generally don't replace the engine on ~15yo cars with a new engine; they'll generally get one salvage, such as from a car that was in an accident that didn't damage the pack and was a writeoff (same as with ICE engines). So if someone's pack died at 300-500k km, they might buy a salvage pack with 100-150k km on it at 1/2 to 1/3 the cost of a new pack.
If we apply these trends to a vehicle built today with, say, a $7,5k pack on a 340mi / 550km vehicle, then in the future you would likely have a choice of:
* New: $5,4k inflation-unadjusted / $3k inflation-adjusted. ~475mi / ~765km range.
* Salvage: $2,1k inflation-unadjusted / $1,2k inflation-adjusted. ~320mi / ~515km range.
Of course, one needs to also add in labour. Replacing a battery pack is a lot easier than replacing an engine, but it's still a cost (one that today is made more expensive by the relatively small number of mechanics with experience in doing so, but that obviously won't be the case 15 years in the future).
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I find that unlikely, since EVs have neither of those things. EVs have electric motors (far cheaper and more reliable than high-temperature ICEs with thousands of moving parts) and there is neither gearing nor transmission required (the motor is installed directly on the shaft).
I live in Norway, where EVs were phased in much earlier, and EVs are well-known to be cheaper to maintain and way more reliable than ICE
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Only motorheads replace engines for that extra 5% gain. People who do not have GM automatic transmissions do not replace those either, though they may need a rebuild eventually.
Manual transmissions last for decades until the bearings give out. The clutch is the wear part and good for 150,000 miles, at least mine were.
I miss my five-speed, but I do admit they have finally fixed the mad hunting between gears on a steep hill.
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EVs do not have a transmission.
And an electric engine: lasts for ever.
At least on a human time scale. We have the first water powered electric generators still running in Germany. After ... how many hundred years, close to 200?
What exactly do you think could break in an electric car engine? (* facepalm *)
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EVs do not have a transmission. And an electric engine: lasts for ever.
[...]
What exactly do you think could break in an electric car engine? (* facepalm *)
That was actually my point, although a couple folks didn't get it so maybe I didn't state it well. There is much FUD put out by those opposed to electric cars, of which the common (fake) worry is about the need to replace the battery. My point was that the battery in electric cars will need to be replaced on about the same schedule as you would need to replace the engine or transmission on a gas car. When buying a gas (ICE) car, worry about needing to replace the engine or the transmission is not a factor f
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I've done both.
Talking about "almost no one" is entirely the wrong perspective. It's not about "per person" but rather, "per vehicle". Someone who never keeps a vehicle that's more than 5-10 years old or sells it immediately as soon as a major issue comes up, then no, they will never replace an engine or transmission. But the person they sell it to very well might.
The mean age of a vehicle - ~20 years - is the combination of most vehicles lasting somewhat less than 20 years, with a minority lasting much
Lithium not really a big factor (Score:5, Informative)
For the $11,000 battery, only about $400 is lithium.
There is a *lot* of nickle, copper, and graphite.
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About 5kg per 60kwh as of May 2, 2022 tho it varies by type.
See: https://www.mining.com/web/the... [mining.com]
This breaks it down by battery type.
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That may be a bit optimistic, but not far off.
Do note that you'll sometimes see figures that say something like "60kg" or whatnot. These are lithium carbonate-equivalents (LCE). Lithium carbonate used to be the main traded form (today it's lithium hydroxide), and so the mass of lithium carbonate became a common trading metric. To convert from LCE to actual lithium content, divide by 5,3x.
Re:Lithium not really a big factor (Score:5, Informative)
Here's a nice infographic for NMC [visualcapitalist.com]. For NCA, more alumium replaces the manganese, and the proportions adjust slightly. For LFP, alumium, cobalt, and nickel go away and are replaced by iron and phosphorus, in a greater mass fraction (aka, the mass fractions of all the other components decreases).
Note that this chart omits oxygen. NMC / NCA are actually oxides, and LFP is lithium iron phosphate (PO4), not phosphide (P). It also omits the electrolyte (which is mainly organic carbonates) and separator membrane, but does include the current collection foils.
Sodium-ion as well soon (Score:2)
Sodium ion batteries are just starting to be produced and I bet in a few years they'll be extremely common in vehicles. Lithium isn't a rare earth but it is still in short supply and the price reflects that. Sodium is everywhere and therefore batteries made from it will be cheap. The downside is energy density is lower, but I could see them being used in standard range vehicles the way lithium iron phosphate is today, and more energy dense lithium manganese batteries for extended range cars.
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Lithium is dirt-cheap at the mine, and only small amounts are used. This price spike was due to a refining shortage. And "being produced" is meaningless. I remember when solid-state batteries started "being produced". Titanate batteries that can charge in just a couple minutes have been "being produced" for decades. "Being produced" means nothing. You have to actually have competitive stats and pricing, or you never scale.
Chemically, sodium is just an annoying substitute for lithium. Not from its mas
Umpossible! (Score:2)
We all know the planet - which is basically made from Lithium - has not enough lithium to make "many" car batteries. Lithium should be worth more than gold right now! I blame: blockchain!
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Makes sense... (Score:2)
Makes sense. Companies have been investing for a few years now in ramping up production. And at the same time battery companies have been investing in refining their designs to reduce the need for rare minerals. For example, LFP batteries, which Tesla uses for all their "standard range" vehicles, for example, contains no Cobolt. Which means that while the number of EVs being produced is up, so is the supply of the required materials, and the quantity required per vehicle is dropping. So it's not shocking th
Still higher than two years ago (Score:2)
Cobalt may be down relative to what it was a few months ago but it's still much higher than it was two years ago. So is lithium. The cost of electricity is also about 50% higher than what it was two years ago. IMHO, the mainstream media loves to pretend that factual history doesn't exist and therefore everybody should just listen to what they're saying today. Sadly, most people just buy it without doing any research. Ultimately, the time to buy an EV is not now.
More Affordable for Whom? (Score:2)
Typically, a one-quarter drop in raw resources used in manufacturing doesn't translate into lower prices for consumers unless the distance between resource and consumer is small. For example, a 50% reduction in the cost of steel won't result in a noticeable drop in the price of air conditioner units for some time whereas a significant drop in the price oil will result in a cheaper gallon of gas within a few weeks or months.
Yes, if lithium is cheaper, then battery manufacturing is cheaper. But battery manufa
Bogus? (Score:2)
I am too lazy to look for the data, but frequently this type of drop occurs after there was a speculative run-up in prices, and the speculation turned out wrong, e.g. Ukraine war did not kill lithium supply, or demand did not go up astronomically.
Cobalt refiner trick (Score:2)
Someone must have figured out the cobalt refiner trick [fandom.com] and then figured out how to apply it to lithium as well.
Double-check me on these facts? (Score:2)
1) A typical basic EV contains only 9 kg of lithium.
2) A typical basic old car battery contains 10kg of lead.
3) Lithium is much more abundant in the Earth's crust than lead is (20 ppm vs 14 ppm)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Unless you can show me that lithium much-more-rarely is concentrated anywhere, has fewer ores that are as cheap to mine as lead ores are, then I have to conclude that the lithium shortage is all about production, and the free market will direct enough money to it to find more lithium
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High schools, at least in the US, are strongly incentivized to teach only what's on the standardized tests (english and math).
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"Supply and Demand" economics only works in rare cases (as taught in school).
No idea what you learned in school, but I suggest to watch "real life" economics a bit more closely. It is basically bubbles all around you ...