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Power Transportation

Will Electric Cars Transform the Workforce? (laist.com) 181

Gas-powered vehicles "have hundreds of moving parts and other components" that keep mechanics busy, argues CalMatters (which describes itself as a "nonpartisan and nonprofit news organization.")

"By 2040, the state projects that nearly 32,000 auto mechanics jobs will be lost in California, since electric vehicles need far less maintenance and repair than conventional combustion engines." And they base that prediction on statistics from the state's own Air Resources Board (part of California's Environmental Protection Agency): Throughout the economy, an estimated 64,700 jobs will be lost because of the mandate, according to the California Air Resources Board's calculations. On the other hand, an estimated 24,900 jobs would be gained in other sectors, so the estimated net loss is 39,800 jobs, a minimal amount across the state's entire economy, by 2040. But no single workforce in the state would be hurt more than auto mechanics: California has about 60,910 auto service technicians and mechanics, and more than half of those jobs would be lost over the next two decades if the mandate goes into effect, the air board calculates....

Some industries gain jobs while others lose them as the state shifts to zero-emission vehicles. The retail trade sector, which includes gas station workers and automobile and parts dealers, would lose 38,669 jobs by 2040 or about 2% of the retail workforce. Most of the losses would be at gasoline stations. As the electric vehicle fleet grows, air board officials project gas stations could provide charging to offset the losses.... Another 20,831 jobs in state and local government would be eliminated because of the decrease in gas tax revenue.

But the transition to electric cars also will create thousands of jobs. Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric and other power industry companies would benefit most, with the creation of about 5,600 jobs by 2040 as car owners spend more on electricity to power their vehicles. Insurance carriers will benefit from about 1,700 new jobs, while the construction industry is expected to gain about 3,600.... Mechanics who work on internal combustion engines would still have plenty of work: The rule would not ban sales of used cars, and it wouldn't force the state's residents to stop driving the roughly 29 million gas-powered cars that are already on the road. Californians also could keep importing new or used vehicles from out of state.

That means Californians will still own a lot of gas-powered cars past 2035, softening the blow for car mechanics and industries dependent on fossil fuels, said James Sallee, an economist and research associate at the Energy Institute at University of California, Berkeley's Haas School of Business. Sallee said the changes wouldn't occur fast enough to trigger a sharp economic slowdown within the auto repair industry.

One 67-year-old mechanic still tells CalMatters that "The electric vehicle repair market is just about nonexistent."

But another mechanic tells them "I'm not against electric vehicles. I've always loved cars and I'll work on them until I can't anymore. So we have to adjust. We have to get out of our comfort zones."
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Will Electric Cars Transform the Workforce?

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  • by Dirk Becher ( 1061828 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:09PM (#62575552)

    On Cybertron, workforce transforms into electric cars.

  • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

    Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Solar power. Don't tell me you don't know what it is. Google it. Why should we take you seriously when you have never even heard of solar power?

      • Or hydro, wind, wave or even nuclear and (in less than a decade!!1) fusion?

        • And also, "over the lifetime" considerations:

          You'll here people complaining that building EV, and constructing low emission energy production still emits lots of CO2, so it's not zero emission neither.

          Yes, electric cars cost a tiny bit more emission to manufacture, mostly due to their batteries, when compared to manufacturing an ICE powered car.
          BUT! ...once you factor in the lifetime of the car, these manufacturing emissions are absolutely dwarfed by the gobsmackingly large amount of fossils that ICE cars b

  • Far less? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by fahrbot-bot ( 874524 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:14PM (#62575564)

    ... electric vehicles need far less maintenance and repair than conventional combustion engines.

    Perhaps less with regard to the ICE itself, but the rest of the car's systems are pretty much the same -- A/C, brakes, steering, suspension, tires, etc... I don't have an electric vehicle, so can't speak directly to them, but I have a 2001 Honda Civic EX (150k miles) and 2002 Honda CR-V EX (50k miles -- my wife's, who died in 2006) that I keep well maintained and most of the expenses over the years are for non-engine wear items. (Both do need to be painted as the clear coat is starting to fail after 20+ years parked outside.) Sure an electric vehicle will eliminate the periodic oil and coolant changes and the once every 7-year / 100k miles items like spark plugs and timing belt (though my CR-V has a permanent timing chain), but I imagine there will be other maintenance items specific to EVs. Perhaps EV will require far less maintenance for people who neglect their ICE vehicles...

    • Re:Far less? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by jabuzz ( 182671 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:21PM (#62575578) Homepage

      Brakes are one thing that you need less maintenance of in an EV, because most of the braking is regenerative breaking which does not wear down your break pads. Consequently they will need replacing far less often.

      • Re:Far less? (Score:5, Informative)

        by larryjoe ( 135075 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:32PM (#62575608)

        Brakes are one thing that you need less maintenance of in an EV, because most of the braking is regenerative breaking which does not wear down your break pads. Consequently they will need replacing far less often.

        This is true. I have seen very minimal wear on the brakes of my PHEV. However, I try to maximize regenerative braking, i.e., by coasting to a stop. On the other hand, I've seen much faster wear on tires, with tires needing to be replaced around 20,000 miles on my car. That really surprised me. This is due to greater torque (why get an *EV car if you aren't going to feel the acceleration?) and the weight of the batteries. From my experience the cost and frequency of tire replacement outweighs the benefits of slower brake wear.

        • I have almost 28,000 miles on my Model 3. They will probably need replacement at about 30k.

        • Most EVS tend to be higher end vehicles and you've probably got higher in tires on the thing? The hiring tires tend to not last as long. I don't know of a consumer grade EV except maybe the Chevy spark. Everything else I've seen has been fairly high-end SUVs or Tesla's and BMWs.
          • I don't know of a consumer grade EV except maybe the Chevy spark. Everything else I've seen has been fairly high-end SUVs or Tesla's and BMWs.

            In Europe the Renault Zo (and Nissan Leaf) tend to be popular.
            But I've never owned one personally, only drove a lot of km on Zoés from the local car sharing, who took care of tires themselves, so I can't comment on the tire costs.

      • Brakes are one thing that you need less maintenance of in an EV, because most of the braking is regenerative breaking which does not wear down your break pads. Consequently they will need replacing far less often.

        Thanks, good example of how similar systems are different on ICE vs EV. But how often are they typically replaced anyway? I think the brake pads have been replaced once on both my vehicles over 20+ years -- most of the Civic's 150k miles are highway while the CR-V's 50k miles are city.

        • Yeah, not very often. I've done track days in my car and still only replaced pads once in 10 years. It's a Miata though so so with a heavier car and more city driving it might be more often. Also the calipers sometimes go bad and get stuck especially if you have winter. Still, it's a very quick, easy and cheap thing to replace.

          I think internal engine failure is (thankfully) going to be pretty rare with reasonable usage nowadays. What's more likely is various electronics and accessories going bad. Coils, plu

      • most of the braking is regenerative breaking which does not wear down your break pads.

        Yes - I recently bought a new car, chose an electric one and set the regeneration level to high. I got used to one-pedal driving very quickly, and I find it more comfortable and pleasant than the three pedal style (my previous car had a shift-stick). I hardly use the brakes in regular city driving, and when I do it's at low speeds, having used regenerative braking for most of the slow down.

        Another thing is that the recommended service period for my car is only once every two years or 21000 miles - as oppose

      • by madbrain ( 11432 )

        That is not what I observed on my 2012 Nissan Leaf. The brake pads wore out quickly, and I had to be replaced before I returned it at the end of the lease. Living on a hill might have something to do with it. The street is very steep. I haven't seen the same on our current 2015 Volt and 2017 Volt, though.

        • The amount of brake usage saved depends on a lot of parameters having to do with the regenerative braking system's capability. Basically, the power represented by the car's momentum needs to be sent to the battery pack over a short time. So the efficiency of the motor when in generator mode and the size and configuration of the battery pack play parts. A battery pack that can be charged at a high rate of speed combined with motors that can generate nearly as well as they drive will provide the best braking
          • by madbrain ( 11432 )

            Thanks. I figured there had to be a variables. The Leaf battery was only air-cooled also, whereas the Bolt and Volt are liquid-cooled.
            The Leaf had a small battery pack, and I always charged it at 100% for that reason. The fact that it was always full when leaving home and driving downhill. Perhaps there was nowhere for the energy to go except the brake pads in this case. Though we always charge our Volt and Bolt in full as well, and drive the same downhill, and just haven't had the same issue yet. It could

            • All cells are always charged to the same level, because that makes for a simpler battery management system. If you had left some room at the top of the battery in the Leaf, you would've had a higher state of charge at the bottom of the hill than when you started.
              • As I recall, the only options for charging on my 2012 Leaf were 80% and 100% I had a hard enough time living within the 100% battery range that I would never have considered charging at 80%. 97% perhaps, but it wasn't available.
                Glad I returned that Leaf to Nissan.

      • It is fascinating to me that you could spell "brake" correctly AND spell "brake" incorrectly in the same sentence.
      • Unless you're dumb enough to buy a BMW (like I did) and the brakes are a nightmare because they rust and even with limited use, they actually deteriorate faster because you tend to only use them when you're pressing harder. The rust causes more damage.

        I have no idea how BMW has been using the same terrible brake design for so long. Everyone always talks about how great BMW is at making cars.... and frankly, I keep my cars from the time they're purchased new until I calculate that the cost of ownership is hi
    • Re:Far less? (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Zontar_Thing_From_Ve ( 949321 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @05:57PM (#62575744)
      I leased a Nissan Leaf for 3 years and I can speak directly to the repair issues. When I got the lease, I thought you had to also prepay for regular maintenance on the car, so I did that. It wasn't until some time later that a co-worker also got a lease without any maintenance agreement and I found out I was wrong. The maintenance was pretty much a waste of money. They updated a few software things and rotated tires (this does have actual value) but in 3 years not a single thing needed to be repaired. I did have to buy brand new tires a little before I finished the lease and turned in the car. With every car I've ever bought, the tires that come stock on the car never last as long as they should. I loved the car and all my friends were fond of it. I turned it in when the lease ended because I have family that lives too far away from me for a Leaf to be a practical car if I want to see them, so I bought a standard gasoline powered car to replace it. I was paying about $1 a day in electricity to drive to and from work, which was about 42 miles round trip.
    • Brake jobs are expensive because people are kind of dumb when it comes to cars but they're super cheap to do. Why do you think there are so many places that specialize in brakes? Engine and transmission is where the skilled work goes. And that's where the higher paying jobs are. It's not just that we're going to be losing tens of thousands of jobs we're going to be losing tens of thousands of middle class jobs. And those absolutely nothing on the horizon to replace them.

      This happened during both industr
      • Brake jobs are expensive because people are kind of dumb when it comes to cars but they're super cheap to do.

        I've actually replaced brake pads (and shoes) myself. It's not really that difficult, just a little messy.

    • One thing I have observed with ICEs is that many of those other systems are only considered critical by the first owner who often dumps the vehicle when the warranty runs out. Future owners are concerned whether the car can get them back and forth to work. If they have to roll the windows down, constantly adjust the steering, drive slow over bumps because the shocks are shot, use tires that someone else traded, etc. they will. If the engine breaks though, they have to fix it. So, when the entirety of the ve
    • by mspohr ( 589790 )

      100,000 miles on my Tesla.
      Only maintenance was tires. They lasted about 30,000 miles a set.
      No other maintenance. No oil, lube, antifreeze, transmission, etc.

  • by raymorris ( 2726007 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:16PM (#62575574) Journal

    The idea that mechanic work will be cut in half doesn't jive with my experience over the decades owning cars. The last few times my cars have been to the shop:

    Annual safety inspections (not engine specific)
    Suspension problems (not engine specific)
    Airbag related recall (not engine specific)
    New tires (not engine specific)
    Collision repair (valet parking guy had an oops - not engine specific)

    At least the last four times my cars have been to the shop, it hasn't had anything to do with the engine. The car is going to need tires, airbags, etc just the whether it's power by gasoline, by a natural gas electric plant, or by magic fairy dust. Unless the rest of you are all using much less reliable engines than I've ever had, I don't think fully half the work that gets done is on the engine. I suspect you have problems with your air conditioning, infotainment systems, etc, not so much your engine all the time.

    Even IF half the work was on engines, so say it'll cut mechanics work in half presupposes that electric vehicles never have any trouble or need any maintenance on their motors, batteries, etc. I suspect electric systems will need work occasionally too.

    • by jabuzz ( 182671 )

      The article didn't say there would be *no* mechanics left, just that 32,000 are likely to no longer be needed out of a total of about 61,000 existing mechanics. New tyres and your tracking checked is a lot quicker than having your timing belt replaced.

      There are still people making buggy whips, just not as many as there where 100 years ago.

      • The claim is very specific "California has about 60,910 auto service technicians and mechanics, and more than half of those jobs would be lost". The claim is "more than half".

        Considering that zero percent of of my recent car maintenance and repair has been engine related, I find "more than half" an unlikely statement. I've owned a lot of cars over the decades. Maybe 5% of my auto repair and maintenance has been on the engine. EVERY car I've owned has had tires replaced; less than 10% have needed engine wor

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          The scheduled maintenance for my car for the first 5 years is:

          - oil and filter change every 12 months
          - brake inspection, clean and lubrication every 24 months
          - cabin air filter replacement every 24 months
          - drive belt inspection and engine air filter replacement every 36 months
          - exhaust inspection every 48 months
          - spark plugs every 120,000 km
          - engine coolant at 120 months

          Of that list, only the cabin air filter is relevant to an EV. A lot of the routine stuff is engine related, a lot of it has already gone aw

          • You're thinking of an EV that doesn't have air conditioning, or indeed brakes?

            "brake inspection, clean and lubrication" is needed on an EV as much as it is on the same car with an ICE.

            Your AC is still driven by the same belt, or an whole new motor, which has it's own failure points including brushes that will wear out over time.

            Btw:
            > my car for the first 5 years is: ...
            > spark plugs every 120,000 km
            > engine coolant at 120 months

            120 months is a bit longer than five years. As is 120,000km, for most p

            • by Ă…ke Malmgren ( 3402337 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @11:23PM (#62576414)
              The AC is never belt driven in an EV, because the main motor only spins when driving. In fact, nothing at all is belt driven, everything has its own motor. And it's usually brushless, clutchless, and maintenance free.
            • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

              EV brakes generally last way longer because of regenerative braking. EVs driven in "one pedal mode" often don't use brakes except to stop - the regen braking will get you down to about 5-10mph or so, then brakes are applied to slow to a stop.

              This slow speed braking basically puts almost no wear on them - you can go 5 years of this and still have 90% of the brake pads still available.

        • Transmission is also simpler and less likely to need a rebuild. (It's not really a transmission just the differential they have on an ICE and maybe one more gear to give the drive unit a particular ratio)

          There also are a ton of new things added making them more complicated like ADAS systems etc.

        • by madbrain ( 11432 )

          It's hard to extrapolate from an individual experience. The plural of anecdote is not data.

          I don't know how accurate the following is :
          https://www.centennialcollege.ca/centennial-college-blog/2017/june/23/the-nine-most-common-car-repairs/

          1) is spark plugs. I had to have them replaced on at least one of our Prius; probably multiple.
          2) fuel cap. Actually happened too. Needed replacement
          3) oxygen sensor. Never had this, luckily
          4) brake work. Had this, on my EV.
          5) oil changes. Have done them on ICEV and PHEV. N

          • by madbrain ( 11432 )

            This link has a different list of top repairs.

            https://www.carmd.com/wp/vehicle-health-index-introduction/2021-carmd-vehicle-health-index/

            All of them are only applicable to ICEVs.

            The top one is the catalytic converter replacement.

            Fuel injectors is on the list, also, at #8. Something I remember having to replace on my 2001 Prius.

            • That's a list of "check engine" light repairs.
              Check ENGINE. The check ENGINE light.

              I wonder why they seem to be engine related? :)

              Actually the "check engine" light is the "emissions related malfunction" light. So it lights up for things that would increase emissions. What obviously doesn't apply to EVs, because for EVs the emissions are done elsewhere, at the power plant and the battery plant, rather than at the vehicle.

              • by madbrain ( 11432 )

                You are correct. I noticed that after posting. I couldn't find a better source of common repairs besides this and the previous link I posted.
                The per mile emissions for EVs may not happen anywhere, assuming renewable power is used for charging.
                Battery manufacturing emissions seem to be a small subset of total emissions, though they are higher than for ICEV at manufacturing time.

                See https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths #5 .

        • by jabuzz ( 182671 )

          Just because *zero* percent of your maintenance has not involved the engine does not make that representative of the amount of time auto mechanics spend on different things.

      • Funny the last car I saw by the side of the road on the freeway waiting for a tow was a model 3. It was not in a good spot either. I would not have wanted to be the tow truck operator. The car must have died quickly as no one would have chosen that spot to break down. CU also withdrew the 3's recommended b/c of reliability. I think the mechanics will do just fine.
    • by JaredOfEuropa ( 526365 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:53PM (#62575636) Journal
      Depends a lot on the age of the car. We have a couple (too many) older IC cars, and there's a fair bit of maintenance related to the engine. The most expensive in terms of parts and man-hours are engine seals, timing belt, transmission issues, and pump / generator refurbs. And there's still plenty of smaller stuff related to the engines: MAF sensors, exhausts, engine mounts, and so on. In terms of money and time spent on our cars, I'd say about 75% is engine related.

      But you're right, EVs still need maintenance. One thing that needs regular attention in our older cars is the aircon. In an EV (depending on the model), the heating / cooling unit is more complex than in an IC car, and more important as well: it ensures the battery remains at the right temperature (plus in winters, you rely on it to get any kind of heat in the cabin). That thing is going to need coolant refills, maintenance on the seals, and compressor or radiator replacements.
      • They still need far less maintenance than ICE.

        And the major bits, batteries and the motor are basically plug n play replacements, vs an engine or transmission.

        20 yr ownership is entirely reasonable to become almost normal for the mechanical pieces. ICEs could never achieve that due to their physics.
    • I guess California's different. Here in Florida, a) no inspections, b) oh well, no inspections, c) that airbag I popped? (no inspections), d) yeah, there is that, e) you actually repair collision damage instead of pocketing the cash (no inspections)?
      • I learned to actually check suspension-related symptoms right away. As it turns out, that bit of wobble was because the A-arm connecting the wheel to the car had broken. It was left connected only by a much smaller bar that's intended to stabilize the alignment.

  • by Narrowband ( 2602733 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:22PM (#62575582)
    In a year where we're already seeing reports about insufficient electric generation capacity to meet existing needs, and power grids that need work to transmit power safely without risking fires in drought-stricken climates, it's hard to underestimate the scale of what really needs to be built to support electric vehicles on a massive scale.

    Some of the latest high speed charging equipment from ABB calls for a charger having a maximum output of 350 kW. Imagine an electric equivalent of a gas station with, say, 10 lanes, where each lane is bumping the power draw up or down 350 kW each time a car starts or stops charging. Scale that up, and you're looking at a +/- 3.5 Megawatt draw for a single station... a variable draw that's plus or minus the output of four 1 Megawatt solar power stations., or about 1/250 to 1/300 the output of a Gigawatt nuclear reactor.

    Slower speed chargers don't have quite that draw, but still, imagine a thousand stations spread across several states. Neither our generation capacity, nor our grid, is designed to handle that kind of additional usage beyond existing loads. EVs are a good thing, by and large, but to me the math says we just aren't ready.
    • by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:35PM (#62575614) Journal
      You are imagining EVs refueling the same way ICEV do. Run the battery to zero. Then charge it full 100%. Drive to some location to do the charging. These are all clueless ICEV thinking.

      EVs top up every night at home. ( High speed charging is only for long distance drivers and people who don't have garages. ) There is so much excess generation capacity at night. So there will be no serious issue of the grid capacity.

      • I think there are a lot more long distance drivers than you realize, but that's only part of it. Even home-to-work commuting in our metropolitan area runs as high as 150-200 miles/day, not counting any other errands or travel, and those numbers keep going up as suburban sprawl goes further and further out.

        More importantly, as close as we are to maxing the grid without large quantities of EV charging, and with more generating plants closing, we no longer have the massive excess capacity at night much of
        • by madbrain ( 11432 )

          I drive a PHEV as well, a 2015 Volt. I get about 30-35 miles out of it, a bit less than the EPA rating, due to living on a steep hill, and always using heat in the winter. I almost never exceed the battery capacity. The "engine maintenance" comes up every few months to burn some gas that's been sitting in the tank unused.

          The average US driver drives 39 miles a day. Those driving 150-200 miles a day are very much the exception. And the average accounts for those drivers. If you are driving that many miles ev

        • 150 miles *per day*? I had a fairly lengthy commute in the DC area that was 70-80 round trip.

          Any more than that and you're willfully living hours away from your job and not at all typical.

          Vast majority of drivers do less than 50 per day in total. Perfect for EVs
        • It does not matter how many people can not use it. Let me say it again, it does not matter how many can't use it. 90% of the people can not use motorcycles or boats or thousand other things. It does not matter.

          What matters is how many people can use it. 66% of Americans with garages can use it. That is a big enough population to create a viable sizeable market. We have not even scratched the surface in meeting their needs. First let is concentrate on people who can use it. By the time we serve significant

          • by shilly ( 142940 )

            Spot on. There's so much room for growth just by tapping the market of people who can charge at home. Then there's another large chunk of people who can charge at work. We'll get to the people who live can't charge at home *and also* do 200 mile commutes one day, but they're sufficiently nice we don't have to worry about it any time soon. Frankly, I'd say the same of 350kW chargers -- all v nice, but addressing a very much niche need.

      • Yes, right now there is plenty of coal and gas capacity at night. When I charge my PHEV all the power comes from the coal plant down the road. But if we actually move to a grid powered by solar that stops being true. Our municipal utility just opened a solar farm with battery storage that will provide 10% of its power. But I will still own a coal burner since the coal plant will provide the extra power needed when I plug in the charger. All that solar will be used regardless. Electric industries are puttin
        • by madbrain ( 11432 )

          Coal is hardly a factor in California, which the article is about . It represented just 2.74% of the CA power mix for 2020, the most recent year I could find data for. Only one coal-fired power plant remains operating in California, the 63-megawatt Argus Cogeneration Plant in Trona (San Bernardino County). CARB would never allow a new coal-fired plant to open in California.

          https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2020-total-system-electric-generation

          When we charge ou

          • by drhamad ( 868567 )
            Yeah... in my state, it's even more lopsided towards not-the-things he's talking about - about 55%ish NG, 40%ish nuclear, and just 3 or 4% renewables, a bunch of which is hydro. There's no strain on the grid from most EV charging.
        • by ghoul ( 157158 )
          An ICE engine loses 60% of the energy as heat and only 40% is used to turn wheels. Whereas an industrial power plant burning diesel converts 90% of the energy into electricity, 4% transmission losses, 1% charging loss and then the electric motors pretty much use all the energy (including regenrative braking energy which ICE cant) so even if you are burning diesel to power your EV you are burning less than if you burned diesel to power your ICE.
          • An ICE engine loses 60% of the energy as heat and only 40% is used to turn wheels. Whereas an industrial power plant burning diesel converts 90% of the energy into electricity

            Try 35% typically although the most efficient turbines in existence will get you 63%

            https://www.ge.com/gas-power/p... [ge.com]

            4% transmission losses, 1% charging loss and then the electric motors pretty much use all the energy (including regenrative braking energy which ICE cant) so even if you are burning diesel to power your EV you are burning less than if you burned diesel to power your ICE.

            There are all kinds of losses ignoring transmission and generation that also have to be accounted for:

            AC to DC conversion loses (wall to vehicle charge controller)
            Charging losses
            Discharging losses
            DC to AC conversion losses (to power motors)

            This gets you closer to 85% in a modern Tesla.

            In real world there are numerous practical considerations that can also significantly affect efficiency such

            • by ghoul ( 157158 )
              100% of studies done have shown end to end EVs have higher efficiency than ICEs. Find me one study which says there are more losses in the entire EV ecosystem than in even the best ICE. You wont find one. Its simply not even close. ICEs are inefficient. There is a reason we dont burn Whale oil for lamps in our houses anymore.
      • You don't need high speed charging for people who don't have garages. I live somewhere that off street parking is rare. The amount of on street charging is increasing. Some dedicated charging stations, others are chargers built into lamp posts.

      • The traditional thinking of the grid having excess capacity at night because manufacturing is closed is becoming outdated. As more and more power is being provided through rooftop solar, there is a lot of capacity which is available during the day which goes away at night. Also as more of the US economy moves to services away from manufacturing, manufacturing demand during the day is less and less of a factor. Electricity usage in offices is mostly lights and HVAC and those same people when they go home sti
    • by kulaga ( 159303 )

      There's some concern about total capacity, but I don't think you will see a concentration of charging stations beyond interstates and enough to service the "oops I forgot to charge and need to head across town" crowd. I "fill up" 2-3 times a week. It costs me about $3 at home or about $30 at a charging station, I obviously try to avoid charging stations whenever possible. In the 9 months of having an electric vehicle, I've charged away from home maybe 12 times. 10 of those were on long trips. I think we'll

      • by Narrowband ( 2602733 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @05:33PM (#62575714)
        I expect charging load will be statistically a Poisson process, just like telecommunications. If you run a telecom infrastructure, you don't calculate the capacity you need for phone lines based on what happens on an average day, you calculate the capacity based on Mothers day, when everyone picks up the phone to call their mother. For electric vehicle charging, I imagine the parallel scenario might be getting everyone out of a large area in California for a wildfire evacuation. How do you make sure there's adequate capacity so everyone over a significant part of a state can charge up and make it a long ways to safety all at once?
        • by madbrain ( 11432 )

          If there is a wildfire nearby, the grid is likely going to be shutdown by the utility for safety, so no charging will be possible. However, most EVs will already be fully charged every night. If the grid suddenly goes down due to a wildfire, and there is a need to evacuate, the biggest trouble is to manually open the garage door to get the car out. That might not apply to ICEs, since many neighbors keep them outdoors and not in the garage. Even then, I have seen a neighbor with a Tesla and an outdoor charge

          • > However, most EVs will already be fully charged every night.

            I wonder how many people will be put off by EVs after, say, the 3rd or 4th time they forget to plug the car in the day before and don't have enough juice to get to work or the supermarket the next day.

            • by madbrain ( 11432 )

              It's possible to get stranded with any vehicle, ICEV, BEV, even PHEV.

              I have been lucky enough never to completely run out of gas or battery in my decades of driving. Perhaps it'll happen some day. But I won't considering changing to a different vehicle technology if it does. I'll be pissed at myself forgetting to fill-up and/or charge.

              I have forgotten to plug-in my PHEV at home a few times when the battery was partially depleted. It's not been dramatic, since there was gas in the tank, and I was not stuck a

            • by shilly ( 142940 )

              I've had EVs since December 2015, and my first EV had a paltry range of just 70 miles in the winter (gen 1 Renault Zoe). I have had no more than three occasions when I woke up without enough charge to do the thing I was supposed to do straight away due to forgetting to charge. And I'm not very organised, as my family and colleagues will attest. I just don't think this is going to be an issue.

    • In a year where we're already seeing reports about insufficient electric generation capacity to meet existing needs, and power grids that need work to transmit power safely without risking fires in drought-stricken climates, it's hard to underestimate the scale of what really needs to be built to support electric vehicles on a massive scale.

      Most EV charging is done at night, when the grid is lightly loaded.

      Some of the latest high speed charging equipment from ABB calls for a charger having a maximum output

    • EVs are a good thing, by and large, but to me the math says we just aren't ready.

      And we won't be until just before we need to be. It's a gradual, incremental thing but as the demand becomes visible, the supply will be built. This is not going away and the investment will pay off because people will be happy to pay to charge their cars. We have a great example, here, of how market economics will really help things.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      No EVs draw 350kW continuous. At most they draw it for a few minutes. Most don't come close, not least because it's not worth paying for expensive electronics to save a few minutes a year. Most charging is done on AC over a few hours.

      In any case, those chargers can balance the load and limit the peak to whatever the site can provide.

    • Very ill informed post. It imagines the petrol station model of refueling for EVs. Completely wrong.

      EVs will create decent load at off peak levels, their charging schedule can be very flexible. EVs will improve the grid utilization and improve robustness.

    • by madbrain ( 11432 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @07:19PM (#62575958) Homepage Journal

      Think again. The average American drives 39 miles a day. Even assuming an efficiency on the low side of 3 miles per kWh, that's just 13 kWh needed per vehicle per day. EVs can all charge at different times of the day, and most are charged with slow chargers, not fast ones. Thus, adding one EV is the equivalent of adding a 541 W continuous load to the grid. I have been driving EVs for over a decade. The number of times I ever needed to use a fast charger is well under 100. Probably under 30.

      If all 108 million cars got replaced with EVs, this would add a 58 GW load to the grid.
      Last year, the US electric grid capacity was 1,143,757 MW, or 1143 GW. 58 GW is 5% of the total US grid capacity.

      While 5% is not a negligible load increase, this is hardly the problem you think it is. There are already load management technologies built into chargers. I have been using that on my 2 Juicebox Pro Pro 40 for 5 years already. This allows the utility to reduce or increase the charging rate depending on grid conditions, on a per second resolution. It is totally painless since it happens overnight, and the cars are still guaranteed to be fully charged in the morning, based on the time I set. And I get a small break on the electric bill for using it, about $80/year rebate. Oh, and BTW, I live on a hill in a drought-stricken area.

      The grid infrastructure needed for EVs are not what you think they are. They are not so much with the electric grid distribution or generation, as with installing a sufficient number of slow chargers, where people normally park their cars for long periods of time. The biggest challenge is to install enough chargers for drivers who rent and live in apartments, and at employers.

      • by ScienceBard ( 4995157 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @09:48PM (#62576262)

        I didn't validate your numbers, but even at face value the EV charging problem is a little more complicated than you're making it out to be. For one, the grid isn't some homogenous mass upon which power is efficiently transmitted. EV's represent a serious shift in WHERE power is consumed, not just how much. The utility presentations I've seen that detail how the groundwork is being laid for this change are pretty intense. Take something like a local warehouse/logistics center. Right now that facility is probably using the energy equivalent of a typical grocery store. When it switches to EV charging it's going to require power more like what a large shopping mall draws, which is going to necessitate effectively building a new substation to service it. And those facilities tend to co-locate.. you might have 30 of them in a square mile. That's a very significant set of grid upgrades that has to happen. New substations, new mains, additional land that has to be bought... and unfortunately that brings up the second point, which is the power draw is likely to be simultaneous.

        The fear in the electric utility industry is that right now, with most of the country using fixed rate electricity and following roughly similar life schedules, that people will come home after work and plug in their vehicles at the same time, basically in sync. That also happens to be the most vulnerable time for the grid, on a daily basis. So you aren't talking about some 5% increase on average in power consumption, you're talking about a much larger percent draw all at once at literally the worst possible time for the grid. Are there technical solutions to that? Sure, you can adopt time of use billing in tandem with mandating chargers that can delay and charge at times more favorable to the grid and the customer. But it doesn't take very many people charging with dumb chargers at 7PM to have major ramifications for reserve capacity... we have to size the grid to meet peak demand not average, it's a throughput issue.

        Not only that, but the issue compounds massively when you factor in solar energy. If you have a grid with a high percentage of solar, then the prospect of trying to maintain enough energy storage not just to cover AC load at sunset (which is difficult), but now also continue to shift that produced energy well into the night, is daunting. The modeling I've seen actually has the load curve largely start to smooth out with the electrification of society, such that we get away from "peakiness". This again assumes time of use rates and various load shifting technologies, not just for EV's but all sorts of stuff like cooling and appliances. More consistent load used to be the dream, but with the death of baseload power it's kind of a nightmare now. Really what you want is those vehicles charging at 1pm when the solar output is maximized, but that isn't likely to happen. So you're either building a shitton of batteries to shift that power, or running absurdly expensive peaking gas plants into the night.

        The numbers and models I run are just one little corner of a pretty vast and complicated utility industry, but make no mistake that this is going to be an extremely heavy lift.

        • by madbrain ( 11432 )

          Thanks for the detailed response. There are no numbers in it, and I didn't see the utility presentation you saw.

          As far as your statement that all the power draw from EV charging is likely to be simultaneous, that absolutely doesn't have to be the case, and it certainly isn't for us. Cars are driven an average of 1-2 hours a day. They are parked for 22-23 hours. Drivers are unlikely to own an EV if they don't have charging available at their home location. The car is likely plugged in at home for 10-12 hours

        • by shilly ( 142940 )

          1. This is a growth opportunity for the electric utility industry. Weird that it gets presented as a problem for them: they have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get paid to substitute their joules for oil joules. When you consider the wealth of the people who have been paid for oil joules, this ought to have the electric utility industry salivating
          2. The electric industry has already gone through multiple spikes in demand, which are often concentrated. 30 years ago, people didn't come home and put the A

    • imagine a thousand stations spread across several states.

      Imagine a beowulf cluster of EV charging stations!

  • Maybe (Score:4, Insightful)

    by PopeRatzo ( 965947 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:26PM (#62575588) Journal

    I'm old enough to remember when all cars needed periodic tune-ups. I don't recall fuel injection putting many mechanics out of business.

    • I know for a fact that the prevalence of smartphones with all their features has had a significant impact on electronic retailers. We're down to just one, best buy. I think one of them might have tried to expand out of California a decade ago but they didn't make it very far. And Best buy just barely survived by the skin of its teeth largely because of profits from expensive home appliances and tvs. Even now they seem to be switching into opening up discount retail outlets.

      Toys r Us couldn't survive the
      • Getting back to your tune-up place a tune-up is something you can do with a minimal amount of skill as a mechanic.

        I have a minimal amount of skill as a mechanic, but I've never been able to properly adjust a carburetor or gap spark plugs correctly. The last time I tried was on my '74 Fiat 128 (lime green!) and I messed it up so bad that it never ran properly until I took it to a mechanic.

        I said "minimal".

        Most people back in the day took their cars to mechanics for tune-ups. In my life I've only met a hand

  • As the West got more and more wealthy, the price of a basic car increased with the purchase power.
    ===
    Results in consequences that basic parts will be replaced with more luxurious and comfortable parts. So the suspension is more complex, crumble zones is more complex, and you get luxurious options for the interior like a actual AC system instead of some fans and a window. Safety also means more redundancy for all parts.
    ===
    All these luxury options and redundancy create more maintenance down the line.
    So even i

  • by nicolaiplum ( 169077 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:32PM (#62575610)

    The very closed nature of some electric cars, especially Tesla but also others, is a problem for independent repair (and therefore for owners, especially second-hand owners). Getting parts is hard, and getting service gear is hard. That used to be true for combustion vehicles too - remember how BMW, especially, tried to use technology to freeze out independent repair garages? BMW started to introduce custom equipment to reset the service indicator, customised diagnostic buses, and so on - and getting hold of that equipment was very difficult for anyone other than BMW dealers.

    Most of this vendor lock-in was removed with the OBD-II standard and regulatory requirements to sell test equipment to independent repair workers, sell parts to them, and permit the manufacture of pattern parts by third party manufacturers. BMW had to stop trying to freeze out independents.

    Electric cars have not reached this yet: third-party parts for the electric powertrain are not common, software integration is tight across the entire vehicle and often closed to independent repair, and many vendors are not interested in changing this. They are even less interested in providing component interoperability than combustion vehicle makers.

    The claim that combustion engines have far more moving parts and therefore need more servicing is not really true. It is rare that one has to open a modern engine within the first several years of life, and only every few years after that. The engines may have many moving parts, but they are very reliable (as are the gearboxes). Repairs to modern cars are mostly things like body panel damage or corrosion, wheels/brakes/bearings/etc, suspension, interior fitments, lights or other smaller parts, or breakdown of electronic modules. All of these things happen to electric vehicles too. Electric vehicles need fluids replaced too: brake/hydraulic fluid, transmission fluids, battery/motor cooling fluids, etc.

    Meanwhile, a modern combustion engine vehicle has dozens of intercommunicating computer modules, an integrated ICE unit, ECU, radar and ultrasonic sensors, cameras, etc - like a modern electric car.

    The work for both servicing and fault repair will change, but there will still be plenty of it on a global fleet of mostly electric cars. As long as manufacturers don't lock us all into their own service providers, it can be done by independent mechanics.

  • Not a single government job will be lost. The tax will come from somewhere else
  • - Gradual changes in the mix of jobs does not create hardship. No large fraction of the workforce will be suddenly unemployed. Instead, slowly more people exit the auto repair field than enter it.

    Electric vehicles will reach a tipping point in the future where they are better than ICE in all respects, price, range, availability, number of public charge points, etc. However, it will still take many years after that point to retire all existing ICE vehicles. It's going to be a gradual slope away from ICE.

  • One thing I don't see much comments on is that less routine maintenance (no oil changes, no engine air filter, less frequent break changes) along with fewer repairs due to less moving parts will take the bread-and-butter work from the repair shops. You can't keep a shop open only relying on fixing infrequent breakdowns. Electric vehicles will require a big realignment of the entire industry involved in maintaining the cars. I can see fewer centralized shops covering bigger geographic areas. This will mean i
    • by pesho ( 843750 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @05:27PM (#62575706)
      Edit: Forgot to mention the opportunities charging stations provide for restaurant and retail industry. When on the road 20 to 60min charge times are long enough for people to try and finding something to do: get food or drink, do some shopping, play a short game. I already see gas stations where I live like Sheetz with their large retail spaces adding charging stations in addition to their gas pumps.
  • by Residentcur ( 1189677 ) on Sunday May 29, 2022 @05:46PM (#62575730)
    I neglected to seek service for my 2002 RAV4-EV for 7 years (seemed like 2 or 3), only to receive a no-issues report after I did take it in. Of course, tires, brakes, and bearings wear out and have to be dealt with, usually on a non-emergency basis, and there were one or two standard issues that arose with these early but stellar EVs. Those could be anticipated and dealt with in advance, or merely tolerated if infrequent (charging problems in wet weather, for example.) No exhaust replacements, no catalytic converter thefts, no coolant or oil leaks or frequent changes, no fuel or water pump failures, no blown head gaskets, etc., etc. Modern EVs have some complex hardware, although not nearly as many critical moving parts as ICE cars. Let's hope the bugs will be mostly ironed out during the warranty period.
    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      So are internal combustion engines. A few oil changes aside, they run for a few hundred thousand miles with minimal maintenance.

      What costs money is things like brakes, tires, suspension components and blinker fluid. All things EVs share.

  • If I save $1200 on auto repairs, that money *will* be spent elsewhere. On a generator, on a solar battery, on an electric bike, eating out at nice restaurants, eating out at fast food joints.

    This is the one of the major beneficial points of capitalism. It relentlessly reallocates capital to more efficient uses. That's why it benefits society over time. You are not wasting money keeping antiquated activities to protect fake jobs. Instead, the money is going to *real* jobs that increase GDP.

    • by madbrain ( 11432 )

      That really doesn't follow. Wealthy people couldn't spend all their money even if they tried. If some expenses go down, it just means they get to keep/save more of their income. Even the average person can choose to save some or all of the excess cash flow freed by lower auto repair costs for rainy days, also, rather than spend it all.

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • A typical car is used 1 hr in the morning and 1 hr at night and sits in place 22 out of 24 hrs. A self driving car can roam about working as a taxi doing the job of 10 cars. With self driving even if frivolous use goes up it wont go up by 1000% so in general society will need fewer cars. The bigger change will be society considering cars a utility and not an extension of their peronality. Once you are no longer emotionally invested its easy to sign up for car sharing programs so that whenever you need to go
  • We need less jobs and more workers

  • It's hard to find a mechanic that really knows how to diagnose and fix an engine when they can't plug a computer into it. Good luck finding one that understands the inner workings of a carburetor.

  • Hardly a brilliant observation. When dishwashers, laundry machines, and vacuums arrived, so began the decline of jobs devoted to the cleaning of homes. Cars destroyed the horse and carriage industry. Airplanes destroyed the passenger ship industry. Computers destroyed huge swaths of jobs, not to mention robots and manufacturing.

    What about auto dealerships already being threatened by the advent of cars being sold by the manufacturer?

    Everything changes. Jobs will be lost but others will be created. On balance

    • Hardly a brilliant observation. When dishwashers, laundry machines, and vacuums arrived, so began the decline of jobs devoted to the cleaning of homes. Cars destroyed the horse and carriage industry. Airplanes destroyed the passenger ship industry. Computers destroyed huge swaths of jobs, not to mention robots and manufacturing.

      What about auto dealerships already being threatened by the advent of cars being sold by the manufacturer?

      Everything changes. Jobs will be lost but others will be created. On balance, we find ourselves having to create new work for the workforce every day.

      It's interesting people take for granted as some kind of natural law the worlds reserve labor force will always be kept in some kind of rough equilibrium with labor demand.

      It isn't at all clear to my why this must always be the case especially once "dead labor" is able to do most jobs. If this situation remains the case forever one can only imagine how far GINI coefficients would have to be driven up in order to bankroll such a reality.

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • drive them with robots.

    So... let's imagine that Tesla were to make a truck. And it's autonomously driven.

    A Model S somewhere registers that it's time for maintenance. The telemetry of the car has cataloged a list of all the issues registered by the sensors. Also, since the last service, Tesla has designed new sensors which should be installed in the car as there were issues that weren't being detected earlier. Also, the owner of this car has registered that they keep a baby seat for ages newborn - 18 months

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