VW Says the Next Generation of Combustion Cars Will Be Its Last (bloomberg.com) 502
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Bloomberg: Volkswagen AG expects the era of the combustion car to fade away after it rolls out its next-generation gasoline and diesel cars beginning in 2026. "Our colleagues are working on the last platform for vehicles that aren't CO2 neutral," Michael Jost, strategy chief for Volkswagen's namesake brand, said Tuesday at an industry conference near the company's headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany. "We're gradually fading out combustion engines to the absolute minimum."
The world's largest automaker has started to introduce its first wave of electric cars, including next year's Porsche Taycan. The rollout across its stable of 12 automotive brands is forecast to comprise about 15 million vehicles, as the company earmarks $50 billion over the next five years to spend on its transformation to self-driving, electric cars. Production of the VW brand's I.D. Neo hatchback will start in 12 months in Germany, followed by other models from the I.D. line assembled at two sites in China as of 2020. VW plans to launch fully or partly electric versions across its lineup of more than 300 cars, vans, trucks and motorbikes by 2030. The company "will continue to modify its combustion engine technology after the new platform is introduced next decade," reports Bloomberg. "After 2050, there may still be some gasoline and diesel models in regions where there is insufficient charging infrastructure, according to Jost."
The world's largest automaker has started to introduce its first wave of electric cars, including next year's Porsche Taycan. The rollout across its stable of 12 automotive brands is forecast to comprise about 15 million vehicles, as the company earmarks $50 billion over the next five years to spend on its transformation to self-driving, electric cars. Production of the VW brand's I.D. Neo hatchback will start in 12 months in Germany, followed by other models from the I.D. line assembled at two sites in China as of 2020. VW plans to launch fully or partly electric versions across its lineup of more than 300 cars, vans, trucks and motorbikes by 2030. The company "will continue to modify its combustion engine technology after the new platform is introduced next decade," reports Bloomberg. "After 2050, there may still be some gasoline and diesel models in regions where there is insufficient charging infrastructure, according to Jost."
Future Business Case Study (Score:5, Interesting)
That's a bold statement to come from the world's largest car maker. Automotive development cycles are long. What if they get it wrong and EVs don't prove to be universally applicable; for example because some can't charge at their homes?
If I were in their shoes I would want to milk at least some ICE cars for the profit and to have a fallback plan. Wait until demand has fallen sufficiently for these legacy cars and then pull the plug.
Unless of course that is their plan and they simply won't be updating their platforms anymore but continue selling them for as long as possible. Sort of how the Crown Vic soldiered on with the same platform for a quarter century.
Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:5, Interesting)
I imagine it's one of those things where we're hitting the "no waffling" decision point; aka "s*** or get off the pot". Up until now, automakers have been cramming EVs into their existing automobile platforms. The result is a kludge, because ICE platforms have a lot of different needs than EVs. You can build a much-better performing, more cost-effective, safer EV, if it's built on a platform that is built to accommodate batteries and doesn't need a front that accommodates a huge ICE. Tesla, of course, has been so successful partly because they're not invested in old ICE platforms, so could do it correctly from the start.
Now manufacturers are looking at their next generations of platforms. This means complete retooling of factories and is a huge investment. Do you go conservative and lock yourself into a kludge for the next 10-20 years? Yes, you get to hold onto ICE production, but you very much risk becoming absolutely obsolete when makers of proper EVs steal the market.
Up until now, automakers could afford to hand over the EV market to Tesla, but the writing is on the wall: EVs are the future. It'll certainly be interesting to see how it all plays out and who wins and loses.
Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:5, Informative)
I hardly see it as that ambitious of a statement. They'll be introducing the new generation in 2026. A platform can last decades.
That said, of the major automakers, VW is the most ambitious regarding EVs. It'll be interesting to see how they translate their talk into action over the coming years; I'm watching them closely.
I was disappointed to find out recently that the Ionity network which was supposed be the first real competition with the Supercharger network in Europe is... I hesitate to call it a "fraud", so let's just call it "poorly advertised". They're billing it as a network of 350kW chargers, but what they're actually installing at present in most locations is just your typical high-end V1 CCS chargers (maxing out at 200A - and some people are claiming that it only supports ~400V charging, although I don't know if anyone has actually tested ~800V charging on it). The 500A V2 CCS charging is supposed to be a "modification at a later date". Basically more of the "okay, not today, but we'll be competitive tomorrow" stuff we've been getting from major automakers for the past decade.
To major automakers and infrastructure developers: I'm a big Tesla fan, but I don't want you guys pulling this sort of stuff. I want you guys to be competitive. Put up a fight, for Thor's sake, don't just talk about doing it "in the future"!
A recent survey found that 45% of current non-Tesla EV owners want their next EV to be a Tesla (I expect these numbers to apply to the "buying their first EV" crowd as well). This was celebrated as great news for Tesla. But it also means that there's 55% of non-Tesla owners out there who want their EV to be a non-Tesla brand. We need you guys to serve them. We're not even close to this being a zero-sum game; right now, and for the forseeable future, the game is "cannibalize the ICE market".
Make it happen. VW (and Porsche), you're my best bet on serving the non-Tesla crowd. Let's see it. :)
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350kW chargers have only recently become available, that's why they are only now being installed. They didn't exist before. There are no 800V cars out at the moment either, so it would have been a bit premature to start installing them. Better to get more rapid chargers capable of delivery 150kW to current cars than to push the 350kW ones before they were ready and before anyone could use them.
There are some test sites already active in Europe, on free vend for the moment. Bjorn tested one, it worked great
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200A does not deliver 150kW to a 400V EV. And that's the problem. What they've only just started installing only a bit over 2/3rds the power of where the Supercharger network (vastly more extensive) stands today. But Tesla is switching to more powerful V3 superchargers starting early next year.
I had thought that Ionity was an attempt to catch or surpass the Supercharger network. This is not a promising start.
And no car could pull 350kW from the site he visited (I assume you're talking about the one he vis
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Those 150kW chargers support 200A and 500V on the existing CCS 1 system for cars that support it. What's a shame is that they don't support dual 75kW charging from the same unit.
If you look at the video Bjorn shows the data plate on the charger. It is capable of 920V and 500A. Obviously not at the same time. The charger will likely have some kind of cable upgrade when 350kW capable cars become available, to provide water cooling. For now they are field testing the chargers for reliability and putting them i
Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:5, Funny)
I don't have anything valuable to add, I just wanted to mention this conversation is EXACTLY what I would have expected if anyone asked me, "What would it look like if nerds argued about cars?"
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Up until now, automakers have been cramming EVs into their existing automobile platforms.
That's not really fair. The Nissan Leaf was an EV only from the start. The new Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro were both designed as EVs from the start. The BMW i3 was an EV from the start.
And before someone says they share some common parts with ICE models, so do Tesla. They don't make all the parts for their cars, they buy various bits from other manufacturers.
Re:An alternative approach is to tweak ICE fuel (Score:5, Insightful)
While CO2 is wreaking havoc on the planet's climate, it is still a small fraction of air, around 500 ppm, and is chemically inert (well, it's a combustion product, so obviously...). Extracting CO2 from the air is very difficult. You can use current technology with biofuels, though these are obtained by fermentation and have a short shelf life. For example, biodiesel is OK for city buses because they run around regularly, but if you fill your diesel car with biodiesel and park it at the airport for 2 weeks while on holiday, you may find a nasty surprise when you try to start it again and the fuel has precipitated solids.
The infrastructure for EVs is way more pervasive than fossil fuels today. I am en EV owner (Nissan Leaf) and I almost never need to use fast charging: overnight charging at 2 kW covers over 95% of my needs. Just connect it in the evening and it will be ready the day after. Fast chargers are a necessity for longer travels, but charging at home is a whole lot cheaper.
And since I often hear the argument "but what if everyone charges their car at the same time?", well that just does not happen. The grid would collapse also if everyone started their washing machines at the same time, but that does not happen. Sure, the grid will need some strengthening here and there, but there is plenty of time to do it, consumers are not going to buy EVs all at the same time.
Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:5, Interesting)
Risk is the nature of business. If VW does nothing new, they could be on a case study on how a company treaded too carefully in a market that seems to be changing more rapidly then before.
I expect most car companies have an electric car plan in the works. I think most are just waiting for battery costs to go down for wider scale release.
The electric car isn’t new technology and the charging infrastructure is growing too. And charging stations are much easier to implement then gas stations. A shopping mall can have a charging station implemented in a couple of days. Vs taking weeks to dig for tanks and make sure they are environmentally safe.
In other news (Score:3)
The tech is far from perfected and it's only Just becoming usable in 2018
In other news: Microsoft announces that Windows 10 will be the last version of Windows ever. We all know that has gone just swimmingly.
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They actually have plans for limited ICE cars for some areas. However going 50/50 is often a good chance of wasting 50% of your money. There is more risk going 90/10 but the reward is much greater.
VW Beetle lasted ~50 years. 30 without major... (Score:3, Interesting)
changes in Brazil.
Why do I bring this up? Because they said they are designing their last generation of ICE cars. That doesn't mean that generation won't last far into the foreseeable future, so long as the profits outweigh the manufacturing costs.
Really, if they were smart, they would be taking the old school VW platform, updating it with limited safety features, then replacing the gas tank up front with a LION pack, and putting a manually controlled electric motor in the back, minimizing cost and maintena
A: Because it disrupts the flow of the reader (Score:2)
Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:5, Interesting)
Most of Europe has set deadlines for the end of general sales of fossil cars, so chances are every manufacturer is viewing this generation as the last that will be primarily fossil fuel based.
Governments will have to step up to get charging sorted out. Some countries are doing really well, adding charging to every lamp post, installing posts along residential streets, and encouraging employers to offer it. Fortunately 99% of the infrastructure is already there, it just needs last 1%, the socket and maybe some metering, to be installed.
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Many countries have set a deadline by which no more new ICE vehicles can be sold. It tends to be either 2030 or 2040. But in truth by then there will be no consumer demand for them anyway. And manufacturer that is not switching it's focus to EVs, is committing suicide.
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A vanishingly small percentage of drivers use all their range each day.
Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:5, Insightful)
a very bad day the next.
No worse than running your battery out, finding a flat tire, car won't start, etc. People who drive already have a backup plan - for me it's a call to AAA and an Uber. I drive cars into the ground so I'm pretty good at this by now. "Forgetting to charge" has a pretty stiff feedback loop, so I don't think it will be that frequent. Like "forgetting to fill up", which happened to me once - after a 3 mile walk with a gas can I remembered not to do that again.
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after a 3 mile walk with a gas can I remembered not to do that again.
Been there, done that walk of shame. Never again.
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Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:4, Insightful)
Why wouldn't it be? The fun of a motorcycle is the open road, feeling the wind, the speed and the power. What tech the bike uses to go forward doesn't matter so long as it goes.
Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:4, Funny)
I believe there's an industry that's pretty good at making electrical vibrators. Electrically powered sound reproduction has been a think for a long time.
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Actually, half the fun to me is...the vibrating motor
So, put an unbalanced weight on the rotor axis? ;)
Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:5, Informative)
The Zero is pretty exciting.
https://www.zeromotorcycles.co... [zeromotorcycles.com]
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Because banning X ten years from now gets you political points with the people who don't like X, and doesn't lose too many with people who do like X. It also means absolutely nothing will happen until you're either safely out of office or everyone has forgotten that it was you who instituted the ban in the first place.
Bonus points if in ten years the object of the ban is eye rollingly anachronistic.
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What are these "massive infrastructure upgrades" you speak of?
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Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:4, Informative)
The very simple solution to that is to encourage slow charging overnight with discounted rates. Demand is low at night anyway.
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Installing a network of 350kW chargers will have significant local grid impact, even if they are fully buffered with local storage (25% assumed utilization, 50% off-peak recharge) still puts you around 100kW daytime average load. This is comparable to 100 homes or an office of 85 people for a single charging station.
That charger is (in theory) adequate to support the needs of either the homes or the offices (assuming 40-mile average commute and 300Wh/mile), so essentially what you end up with is a doubling
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Homes in the UK are typically wired with a 100A fuse, so about 20kW max load. In the evenings with the cooker, kettle and shower/immersion heater on 10kW isn't unusual. So at worst it's about 35 homes.
A 350kW charger doesn't pull 350kW constantly anyway, and they are designed to operate in banks so that they can distribute load between them and be thus operate on sites that can't supply the full load at once.
Thing is, 350kW chargers will only be common on motorways and at certain destinations. Most charging
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With the next generation platform coming out in 2026, and a likely life of 15-20 years, I think your point is well understood. This is likely the most logical timeline any manufacturer could offer, where they won't fully destroy themselves in the process.
Cars today seem to have an average life of about 12-15 years, but let's say 20 years for shits and giggles. That means we have little under 50 years before the last generation of ICE vehicles times out, and a whole lot of time for the world to prepare for
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Or, not so much. He (she/it) is making a statement that seven years from now they'll stop DESIGNING IC engine cars. NOT that they'll stop MAKING them then...
So, the current head of VW is saying that his successor (or his successor's successor) is going to stop with the IC engines.
Note that most modern cars will last a couple hundred thousand miles (say, 15-20 years), so this is a promise (?) that there won't be any VW internal combustion
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I don't really see EV's becoming universally usable until cities make very large investments in charging infrastructure to make EV's even a consideration for curbside parking, apartment dwellers
Classic VW Beetle, 60 year production run (Score:2)
Personally I wouldn't go so far as to say they won't be updating a platform, rather they won't be designing a brand new platform. Certainly incremental improvements to the platform would be made if appropriate. And certainly cosmetic and/or luxury and/or tech based changes can be made to the body and passenger cabin. I doubt their cars will be unchanged year t
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That's a bold statement to come from the world's largest car maker. Automotive development cycles are long. What if they get it wrong and EVs don't prove to be universally applicable; for example because some can't charge at their homes?
Perhaps the change from ICE to other-powered-vehicles will also result in redefining market segments and regions where they want to sell. With the knowledge of the markets these guys have, maybe they understand what are the markets where they are going to be big winners and those where divesting makes more sense.
VW Group owns many brands, and they don't mean the same to customers in different geographies. It could happen that VW and Audi move 100% carbon neutral, while Skoda or Seat retain a few petrol vari
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CO2 Free by 2050 Study (Score:2)
Many EU countries want to be CO2 neutral by 2050. Even in Germany, where the government is overprotective of the car industry, had a couple of setbacks, i.e., in more and more cities older diesel cars are no longer allowed to enter town, even a highway will get blocked. So there is a lot of pressure to go out of fossil fuels. If your home market is changing, you have to adapt.
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I think it's an issue of scale - unless they go all-in, they'll never get the costs down.
Charging at home is a problem solved by EV sales volume rising - the more of them are out there, the more incentive people have for building charging infrastructure. Anyone who owns their home can install a charger - I did in an hour or so; anyone who rents (depending on the person / company you rent from) can request chargers to be installed adding a marketable amenity to their property. The more requests, the more l
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for example because some can't charge at their homes?
True, some people can not charge at home. And some people will not buy pickup trucks. Does it mean there is no market for pickup trucks? The number of people who can charge at home will outnumber those who can't. The market will serve them.
The ICEV market is not a monolithic all or nothing affair. BEV will peel off customers. Initially it is the early adapters, tree huggers, acceleration fanatics, ... Then cost conscious people who can charge at home, if the price is right, As the BEV sales increases, m
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Unless of course that is their plan and they simply won't be updating their platforms anymore but continue selling them for as long as possible. Sort of how the Crown Vic soldiered on with the same platform for a quarter century.
Exactly. A platform can last a long time as it is the base on which vehicles are built. One platform can be used in a variety of vehicles, and the vehicle's shell redesigned as need in periodic refreshes. Car manufacturers do that toady with vehicles undergoing mid-production life face lifts to update the design, add new features, etc. The basic platform can soldier on for years even though the vehicles do not look similar. More telling is VW's comment:
“We’re gradually fading out combustion eng
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That's a bold statement to come from the world's largest car maker.
Sure, but what reason could we have to possibly doubt Volkswagen's word?
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I just don't see this becoming viable by 2026 to just toss ICE vehicles completely, just too many things we haven't figured out yet.
A lot of these problems actually have solutions, but that's incidental. VW Is saying they will start selling their final ICE ranges from 2026. They don't plan to produce a new "platform" after that, so they ar ebetting that ICE cars become niche by 2040 or so.
Re:Future Business Case Study (Score:4, Informative)
Let's tackle a few of these:
1. Temperature shifts. Battery packs in EVs come with battery management systems. The evidence to date is that they provide excellent protection of battery state of health. EVs are pretty common in Norway, which gets pretty damn cold, for example.
2. Environmental costs of lithium extraction. There are worse chemicals in most EVs. Lithium extraction is about as benign as you can get for a metal. It's certainly nowhere near as damaging as extracting oil.
3. Power generation. Most EVs will be charged at night, and this is when other power demands are low. So the net additional capacity required is low as a result. Additionally, the average American car is driven 30 miles per day. At 3 miles per kWh, that's 10kWh of power. So that would be just over 3 hours of a 3kW outlet. Not exactly a massive strain between say 2 and 5am.
4. Disposal of used EVs (due to batteries wearing out in 6 to 7 years). Battery packs last a lot longer than that. Once they do wear out -- likely 10 to 20 years in the future, they can be second-lifed as home power management systems (where SoH matters less). Once they're no good for that either, the lithium can be recycled. That makes them much easier to manage than engine blocks.
5. Cheap EVs. Second hand EVs are routinely available for under the $10k you mentioned. Not there with new EVs yet, but it'll happen.
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No action is not guaranteed to be risk free.
I think you made the classic mistake that assumes that continuing as you are is the most risk averse option.
With Tesla coming to Europe and other mayor car brands jumping on the bandwagon (Mercedes, BMW) this seems not to apply in this case.
On the other hand they are planning to milk the maximum out of their current investments. They just decided that the generation afther the one they are currently working on will be electric only. So, they are winding down their
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That's a bold statement to come from the world's largest car maker. Automotive development cycles are long. What if they get it wrong and EVs don't prove to be universally applicable; for example because some can't charge at their homes?
If 80% of the people switch to electric, and the remaining 20% stick to combustion because they can't charge at home, do you realize what will happen? The number of gas station will fall. The offer of combustion cars will also fall. It will be a pain to drive a combustion car at that point. So most condos/apartments/parking lots will have to adapt one way or another.
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This new platform can do both ICE and EV; they are "gradually fading out combustion engines to the absolute minimum", not halting them suddenly.
But what about the broom broom sound. (Score:3, Interesting)
I just remember and old VW commercial advertising its clean desiel cars. And they were making fun of hybrids because they were less cool because they didn’t loud engine noise.
Vroom vroom from speakers (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Vroom vroom from speakers (Score:4, Insightful)
I really hope that this continues to be a feature you can switch off, as it is today in the UK. One of the enormous benefits of EVs is that they are so much quieter. Our cities and motorways will be utterly transformed for the better once most vehicles are EVs.
Re:Vroom vroom from speakers (Score:4, Insightful)
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That's exactly how it works today. The Zoe has a pedestrian warning sound below 18 mph. You can switch it off if you want -- I tend to. And you can choose between three different sounds.
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I think they (Renault along with the EU) did quite a lot of work to find out the minimum speed for tyre and wind noise to become audible to pedestrians, and it turned out to be 18mph. Anyway, that's why I like being able to switch the noise off. Sometimes, being silent is exactly what you want.
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Sometimes, being silent is exactly what you want.
Except the noise isn’t being added for YOUR benefit...
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I've never understood this. Why do EV proponents claim that EVs are so much quieter? Yes, they don't make engine noise, but they do make a very distinct buzz when the accelerate. But in all but the most obnoxious cars that are trying to be loud, the bulk of the noise isn't engine noise. It's tire noise. Seriously, walk down a lane of traffic and actually listen to the noise. You'll hear a slight undertone of engine, but you have to search for it. And where I live, we've got quite a few Teslas. They make just as much tire noise as every other car. And that noise starts coming at really low speeds. Even in parking lots, unless it's some big effing diesel truck, I hear the tires, not the engine. Most modern sedans aren't very loud.
The issue is this... you're walking through a parking lot to find your car. You're walking past car after car after car. Then one of them suddenly backs out of its spot into you, or at the least into your path. You didn't hear its engine start as a clear and obvious signal that it might be about to move, because it doesn't have an engine.
Back-up sensors and cross-path sensors and several cameras may assist with this, but the sound of an engine signaling "this death-dealing device is ON" was a very usef
Better Product (Score:5, Insightful)
The interesting thing is that this is not going to be because of the whole 'green' thing. Sure for some people that is important, and it is a nice add on, but if people really cared about that they would buy city cars instead of trucks or luxury sedans.
No, the reason this is going to happen is because they are better products. I live in a central city area, and after 5 years being carless am looking at buying a second hand car for work. I fix my own cars, but don't have the time to do that anymore. It is extremely annoying having to deal with timing belt changes (thankfully not so common now), potentially expensive emission control problems, changing spark plugs, water pumps, flushing coolant, engine oil every 6 months. As they get older (~100km for many modern cars) you have a whole bunch of gotchas that will empty your pocket. On one model of Nissan/Renault (would never buy) a friend had the direct injectors fail. They basically had to strip the head to fix it, and it was half the value of the car to fix. That's just incredible. Gas cars also have incredibly complicated transmissions and these can cause problems.
With an electric car you don't have to do any of these issues. You just charge and go. You don't even need to change the brake pads these days. And depending on your housing situation, not having to go to a petrol station and having a fully filled car every morning is a positive not a negative.
The other thing is that the cost of these things is going to keep going down. I see another trend on the horizon which will be battery replacements. I expect that once there are enough old electric cars with poor batteries, someone will start making replacement packs enmass. These will be cheap (as batteries have gotten cheaper) or have better capacity. So you can probably keep the same car for much longer and just keep changing the tyres and upgrading the pack as required.
Outside those with the money to burn, most people just want a car that is reliable and cheap to maintain. Electric cars will do that for them, and for that reason alone nobody will want to touch a thousands-of-things-can-go-wrong gas car once the cost becomes competitive.
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The interesting thing is that this is not going to be because of the whole 'green' thing. Sure for some people that is important, and it is a nice add on, but if people really cared about that they would buy city cars instead of trucks or luxury sedans.
People are already doing that around here in Europe and it's not enough. How would doing more of the same help?
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Unless going back to mineral oil, like in old citroens, you still have to change the braking fluid, preferably yearly. Even if the brakes are rarely used.
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I agree with much of this, but not the battery replacement part. Packs might well outlast the chassis, BMS systems are so good.
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The interesting thing is that this is not going to be because of the whole 'green' thing.
You are 100% correct on this. Because tree hugging liberals ranting about fossil fuels evangelize so much about BEV, there is an impression it is for the "environmentally conscious people willing to sacrifice money and time and convenience". Nope. Not true at all. I am thankful for them for funding the early R&D and overpaying for their Tesla model S and X to make BEV practical.
Truth be told, I am one of them too, in a smaller degree, (I only overpaid for my Model 3 ). But BEVs will take over the worl
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a
The other thing is that the cost of these things is going to keep going down. I see another trend on the horizon which will be battery replacements. I expect that once there are enough old electric cars with poor batteries, someone will start making replacement packs enmass. These will be cheap (as batteries have gotten cheaper) or have better capacity. So you can probably keep the same car for much longer and just keep changing the tyres and upgrading the pack as required.
I agree replaceable packs will be eventually part of an EV's design. However, I think there will be some issues with them:
1. I would be willing to bet manufacturers will do everything the can to prevent 3rd party packs from becoming widely available. DRM to detect and not 3rd party packs, non-standard designs along with specialized mounting hardware to make it less economical for 3rd parties to manufacture or refurbish, design patents, etc. With less maintenance work they will look to ways to replace the
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Sounds like you are making work for yourself.
Many car manufactures recommend oil changes only every 15,000 miles (yearly) and that is likely only to keep dealers happy. With full synthetic, you could go likely go several years between oil changes. When was the last time you had a car that was scrapped or in for any major repair that could possibly been oil related? (not counting running out of oil, that is a different matter.j Coolent? Maybe at 60,000 miles, but it is not even on the maintaince schedule fo
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With an electric car you don't have to do any of these issues. You just charge and go.
While there are less moving parts in the electric car, it isn't "just charge and go". There are still batteries, regenerative breaking, electric motors, suspension components and electronics to break.
Additionally, there are other considerations. Like, "did I remember to plug in", "is my car charged", "is it cold outside".
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Of course there's reason to assume greater reliability -- they have far fewer moving parts to fail.
And there's no basis to say battery packs will last only 8 to 10 years. The likelihood is they'll still be delivering 80% or more of original range when they've done 200k miles, because the BMS is very effective (and gets better OTA).
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But you can't deep discharge the pack, because of the BMS. 0 range is not the same as 0 charge. A percentage of charge is reserved to avoid deep discharge. Manufacturers are understandably being cautious. I think you'd really have to be going some to get your pack to 60% SoH after 8 years.
Re: Better Product (Score:4, Insightful)
Not to mention the inability for average Joe to work on his own vehicle will be a massive problem
The average Joe gets his oil changed at Jiffy Lube or equivalent. The vast majority already turn to a mechanic for easy maintenance tasks.
Getting rid of the vast majority of these easy maintenance tasks by changing to a power train that does not require such tasks is a good thing for the average Joe.
This matches Amazon's statement: (Score:2)
VW is fairly on top of things ... (Score:2)
... in the "decommissioning ICE" department. Much unlike some other German carmakers that wil get a huge kick in the balls in the next few years, loss 100 000+ high quality German industry jobs included. Our politicians deserve a clobbering for this bullshit, inlcuding sucking up to the auto-industry over here for so long, with the current Diesel scandal and all.
Electric cars are not happening (Score:2)
What about urban use? (Score:5, Interesting)
Customers in the suburbs and rural areas have decent access to plugs. With a little infrastructure work, level 2 chargers could proliferate and this could be good for a lot of reasons.
For urban life where on-street parking is the norm, what are you gonna do? It's not like it's practical to deploy level 2 chargers (or anything else) along the sides of the road. Many of them are on the driver's side, which means those plugs would be subject to additional splashing and kick-up from passing road traffic. Additionally, those huge L2 plugs are now going to stick out an extra few inches. How do you do that without creating tripping hazards?
I'm all for increased electric car deployment. I was shopping hard for a pure electric car that would serve my needs, and failing that, a plug-in hybrid. My problem is that I need to go for trips with the Boy Scouts where I can tow a trailer over 1500 pounds (which drops all plug-in hybrids and I think only leaves the Model X for all-electrics) and those trips average 2-3 hours away (range is a problem). Stopping with a carload of boys to charge for 2 hours along the way is ... not going to sell cars.
VW (and the rest of the car makers) have a lot of work to do to overcome those challenges.
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Re on-street parking -- I expect lamp-post charging such as Ubitricity will proliferate. And car park charging. You'll get a bit of charging done most times you park. It's a different model from empty-to-full refuelling, just as wireless devices create different usage models from wired devices.
Re your needs. I think it's going to be a while before your needs are met. Maybe as much as 5 to 10 years at a competitive price point. But it's fairly unusual as a usage pattern.
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Expect some streets to be re-striped with angled parking on one side rather than parallel parking on both for a block, with EV chargers. The good thing about city driving is fewer miles per day, so even a slow Level 2 charger can get you on your way in an hour. Add faster chargers, and you can charge for several days in an hour.
Interesting, "combustion cars" (Score:5, Interesting)
It is inevitable. The battery prices have been falling and have reached a tipping point. The battery pack cost estimate varies from 120 $/kWh to 150 $/kWh. (Battery cell prices range between 100 $./kWh to 130 $/kWh). The general consensus is when the battery pack costs 100 $/kWh the cost of electric power train (battery + motor + charger) will equal the cost of ICE power train (engine + transmission + emission control + gas tank). At that point BEV and ICEV will sell at the same price. BEV will cost three to five times less [FN1] compared to ICEV. At that point transition to BEV will be rapid.
People who have never driven BEV are misled by the lack of visible charging infrastructure compared to gas stations. Tesla super chargers few and far between. What they don't realize is every home, every electrical outlet is a gas station. Charging time does not matter. Cars sit idle all night long, enough time to charge. In fact BEV people feel ICEV fueling takes too much time, having to stop by at the gas station every week or so.
Also cars are the second most expensive thing bought by home owners, and the single most expensive thing bought by renters. When they see a big flux coming, things are unsettled, they post pone the decision to buy the next car. It will hurt ICEV companies a lot more than BEV companies.
But vehicles are just the beginning. There is no new breakthrough needed in batteries. The breakthrough needed is in manufacturing, industrial engineering, assembly lines for batteries, volume production, etc, all are known issues with known solutions. We know how to do this, we are just struggling to figure out how to finance this. When battery packs cost 80 $/kWh in 2022 all vehicles, from 18 wheelers to earth movers to train locomotives will run on batteries. Oil demand falling by 50% creating a glut and gasoline price falling to 1 $/gallon .. even that will not stem the tide. ICEV will be more expensive than battery. At 60 $/kWh we can store three days worth of electricity used by the entire grid in batteries. Solar and Wind will be enough and all the coal/gas/oil fired powerplants will go bust.
My friend works in a salt mine that ordered a 130 million dollar HVAC system because they are using diesel earth movers deep in the mine's confined spaces. In today's prices, you can buy 1 GWh of batteries, keep thm on 16 hour charge, 8 hour duty cycle, and run 40 earth movers, each using 500 HP motor operating 24/7. Only problem is 1 GWh of batteries is 2.5% of the world's battery making capacity! Look at the demand, look at the potential, the tipping point has been reached already. It is just a matter of ramping up the production volumes!
[FN1] BEV, Tesla model 3, 75 kWh for 310 miles, 1 kWh = 12 cents, 2.9 cents/mile. Compare to 250 HP BMW X3 25 mpg, 3 $/gal, 12 cents. Ratio = 4.1, plug in your numbers, ratio can down to 2.5 or go up to 6.
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Re that salt mine. This was an interesting Forbes story:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/h... [forbes.com]
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Actually you do need a battery breakthrough. Current battery technology (lowest Co content available) would need 5-10x our current worldwide cobalt production if it were to be used in all personal cars alone, more if we were to use batteries for buses heavy transport, boats etc.
To get battery production to scale we need essentially zero cobalt use or another tenfold reduction, but that would arguably mean the same thing: A completely new type of battery. Current zero Cobalt types of batteries is getting pha
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Amethyst was the most expensive gem in Europe for a while, more expensive than rubies and diamonds. Today you can buy a amethyst geode, several hundred pounds in weight, tastefully cut geode exposing the gem studded interior for a few hundred dollars in any natural curiosity store.
Re: Interesting, "combustion cars" (Score:5, Informative)
Re: Interesting, "combustion cars" (Score:5, Insightful)
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Long distance trips? Just think back. How many times in the last three years you drove more than 250 miles on a single day..
That doesn't matter at all if a requirement I have for the vehicle I buy is to take it on a long distance trip at least once.
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Yes, it would. Good thing that after taxes are deducted that puts you around $15/bbl.
Gas will have its place for a long while-- I am surprised to not see much in the series hybrid (range extender) truck space for towing applications. But, it will be niche applications.
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"Full or partly electric" (Score:2)
No They Won't (Score:2)
Emergencies (Score:2)
lack of petrol will kill 'em first (Score:2)
Once the volume of sales makes orthodox refuelling stations uneconomic, or their is more money to be made from recharging electric cars, it will become more and more difficult to find somewhere to refill the tank. After that there will be a tipping point, where it is simply too hard to keep a non-electric vehicle running.
Not only will the bottom fall out of the marke
Where are all the charging stations? (Score:2)
Aside from California, very few states here in the USA have undertaken the effort of installing charging stations for electric cars. For most people, charging the cars at home is the only option. A few businesses have installed charging stations but those are few and far between.
For fully electric cars to be successful we will need at least half as many charging stations as they are gas stations. Who is going to build them? Is our electric grid up to the task of handling all that extra load?
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With enough range, home charging is more than adequate for daily use. Saves time too, my time spent refueling went from 5-10 minutes per week to just 42 seconds when I traded in my Honda S2000 for a Tesla Model 3; that's 6 seconds per day, 3 to plug in when I get home and 3 to unplug when I leave.
We're still early in the switch to EVs, so non-home charging will depend upon where you live. Here in the suburbs of Houston I have a number of options to charge while I'm out grocery shopping(Krogers, Whole Foo
The Market (Score:2)
Handwriting's on the wall and VW sees that (Score:3)
You can say this is because they've screwed themselves in the diesel market, but consider this: they cheated because it's becoming impossible to meet fuel economy and pollution standards with ICEs.
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Gasoline still offers higher energy density and is rather safe.
It only recently battery technology is getting good enough. Mostly due to advancement needed for cellphones and laptops. While not always the same type of battery it means the money from the technology r&d went to side development of what can be a good automobile battery.
Now There is a problem where a business sector is becoming obsolete and there is more of an effort to keep it on life support vs having a migration plan. Because the fos
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LION - safe to mine, safe to use, safe to eat.
And abundant at scale when all ICE passenger vehicles and commercial trucks are replaced with electric, all power plants renewable with battery backup, etc.
And sourced without any messy geopolitical issues.
Re:So then power-plant software needs "tweaking".. (Score:4, Insightful)
Of course things are won:
1. Powerplants can have better scrubbers and run more efficiently than cars, because they're much larger and the load is more predictable.
2. You shift particulate and other emissions out of urban centres
#2 alone is worth its weight in gold. I went to the University of Cambridge. The old buildings there had to have their stone washed down on a regular basis to clean off the soot from vehicles. If that soot were all shifted to the stacks of powerpoints, that would be great
Re:So then power-plant software needs "tweaking".. (Score:4, Informative)
Actually, there still is.... even in areas where electricity production is still dirty, an electric car will still "produce" about 3 tons less carbon pollution per year than an ICE vehicle itself would. While that savings might not be as significant in terms of its environmental impact in areas where energy production is coal based, it is still quite far from "nothing".... and would definitely add up quickly as electric cars become more common.
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but idea of not being able to "charge" my car within 3 minutes is a problem.
Why?
The primary use for all cars is for commuting to work. That drive is, on average, less than 50 miles round-trip. The vehicles have >200 mile range when fully charged. So you do your commute and get home with 150 miles left in the batteries....and plug the car in.
In the morning, you're back at 200 miles.
With an EV, you don't stop at a "charge station" for a fill-up every other week. You plug it in every night.
Road trips? They're actually quite rare these days. The majority of drivers never do on