Tesla's 'Master Plan, Part Deux' Includes Trucks, Buses and Ride-Sharing (latimes.com) 176
An anonymous reader writes from a report via Los Angeles Times: After teasing Part 2 of his "master product plan" for over a week, Elon Musk finally delivered. Los Angeles Times reports: "In a blog post published on the automaker's website, Musk introduced a multiyear, four-pronged strategy that includes new kinds of Tesla vehicles, expanded solar initiatives, updates on Tesla's 'autopilot' technology and a ride-sharing program. Commercial trucks, buses, a 'future compact SUV' and a 'new kind of pickup truck' will be added to Tesla's fleet of electric cars. A heavy-duty truck called the Tesla Semi and a shrunken bus that Musk called a 'high passenger density urban transport' vehicle are in early development stages 'and should be ready for unveiling next year,' he said. The smaller bus would be designed without a center aisle, with seats close to the entrances, and would be able to automatically pace themselves with traffic, the post said. The bus driver would become a 'fleet manager.' Musk also used the master plan to defend his bid for rooftop solar power provider SolarCity and said he aims to make Tesla's Autopilot robotic driver-assist system 10 times safer than cars that humans drive manually. Musk also plans to move Tesla into the popular ride-sharing business, not only with an Uber-like fleet but also with an app that lets Tesla owners rent out their vehicles when they're not using them, perhaps defraying a portion of their auto loans. This will happen, he said, 'when true self-driving is approved by regulators,' a turn of events that's at least several years away."
So funny (Score:2)
to see the Tesla hating Luddites flail.
"Master Plan", sounds a bit ominous (Score:1)
HITLER!
I always said that Elon Musk character was a ridiculous caricature of a Bond villain and just plain bad writing.
But then we got a billionaire reality TV star, who was involved with Professional Wrestling, going to be President and the audience isn't howling for a purge of the writers' bullpen. Demand more sensible scripting of reality.
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Re: So funny (Score:5, Insightful)
Agree with him or not. However he is one of the few people who is using his money to inovate solutions to problems that are seeming to big for governments to handle.
Found a way to sell Solar Panels as to not hinder the customers.
Found a way to make an electric car cool and exciting vs a slow little box.
Found a way to make rockets to go to space as a private institution.
He has a vision of the future and is working to create it.
Is he always right? No he isn't and he isn't some Magic man. But he has a vision and the vision includes trying to make the world a better place for everyone and not just him. So he deserves some credit. However if you disagree with his vision, you should feel free to work to create your future.
Re: So funny (Score:4, Insightful)
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None of those problems were too big to handle for governments if they were allowed to work on it, and realistically they do work on it because they funded all the basic science that has made these things possible.
You actually don't know how small a percentage of basic science is done by government funding, do you?
Government sends Michelle Obama to tell all the kids, "let's get fit!".
The private markets create Pokemon Go and actually get all the kids outdoors. Profit is how a money-based system sends inform
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Also, the government certainly didn't fund all the basic science that made these things possible. They funded a good chunk of it, but private industry does research too.
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He does all this with HUGE government loans and private loans. And has failed to turn a profit. (SpaceX might be profitable, not sure.)
Just check out the earnings reports for both his solar and car company... And check out the debt to equity ratios....
Sure he's "inovative", but he's not using his own money and he isn't making it work. The companies would be bankrupt if it wasn't for the government freebees.
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He does all this with HUGE government loans and private loans.
Maybe you might want to look at reality [electrek.co]. You say they received HUGE government loans. I assume you mean the $465 million dollar loan Tesla received from the Department of Energy. Are you aware that Tesla paid that loan back with interest? The government made money on that loan. Were you aware that the DOE gave Ford a $5.9 billion dollar loan, and Nissan $1.4 billion under the same program?
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Here's the problem with Musk, and I don't think it's his fault, but people worship him and ridicule people who point out problems with what he does. Fact is Tesla is losing money. A lot of money. And the reason they're calling out on their earning statements is recalls. They don't make a quality product and the amount of money they're spending on recalls is literally putting them out of business. That also gets paired with that they continually miss manufacturing goals. Note that this isn't they're se
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Fact is also that this is cited because they're pumping such vast amounts of money into scaleup. If they'd not done so previously they wouldn't have had the Model S and would have just been a tiny Roadster company. If they don't do so now then they'll be stuck at the S/X stage and never scale up to Model 3 numbers. Investors want them to be losing money in this manner now because they want to own part of a much larger company rather than get short-term profits.
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Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car
And...
Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.
The reaso
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They can't keep up with demand for the model X, how the hell are they going to do it for the model 3? What's going to happen when people who pre-ordered the model 3 thinking a $35,000 price tag realizes that Tesla has used up their government rebates and it'll be $42,500
Oh for fuck sake stop bull-shitting! The base price [tesla.com] of the Model 3 was $35,000 BEFORE the incentives.
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I don't think it's so much "defend against factual claims" so much as "factual claims" usually aren't factual. For instance, in your post:
1. Quality problems - I think you'll find this mainly and primarily applies to the Model X. The Model S did quite well even after the Consumer Reports downgrade, which was reported based on an early-production Model S of which most of the problems were already solved in later revisions. So like most of your post, there's *some* truth, but not the whole truth.
2. Recalls an
Re: So funny (Score:5, Insightful)
Yeah, why does he keep saying he can do things and then actually doing them? What's wrong with the guy?
"I'm going to start a company making electric supercars."
"They'll never work and nobody will buy them. You'll go bankrupt soon."
"So, I've got a big list of buyers for a very real electric supercar."
"Your gearbox problem and price estimate issues will break you. You'll go bankrupt soon."
"So, we've resolved the pricing and gearboxes, and the cars are being delivered to owners"
"Yeah, you're making them at a tiny rate, you'll never scaleup You'll go bankrupt soon."
"So, we scaled up production, and now we're going to make a super long range, even cheaper, luxury car"
"Hahaha, no, that's never going to happen. You'll go bankrupt soon."
"So, we're making the car with basically the specs and pricing we announced."
"Yeah, in tiny numbers. You'll never scale up, and you'll go bankrupt soon."
"So we've scaled up model S production and it's getting great owner satisfaction. We're going to make a crossover now, and then a $30k EV in huge numbers"
"The crossover will be a failure, and those numbers are laughable. You'll never get interest nor raise capital for that. You'll go bankrupt soon."
"So, the crossover is getting great reviews too, we've raised capital to start production of our factories...."
Meanwhile, on the other side:
"Hey, I'm going to start a company to launch payloads into orbit!"
"Har har, this isn't going to last long, you're going to be the next Roton. You'll go bankrupt soon."
"Hey, we've actually got a built and are starting to launch it."
"Yeah, but it's unreliable as heck, and too small to compete for the high dollar contracts. You'll go bankrupt soon."
"Hey, we got the bugs worked out of our rocket, and we're starting work on a vastly larger rocket."
"Har har, like that's ever going to happen. It'll never work, and you'll go bankrupt soon."
"Hey, so we built and are launching our vastly larger rocket..."
"Nobody's going to trust that thing, you'll never be able to compete, you'll go bankrupt soon."
"Hey, we're launching payload after payload, and we're going to start landing and recovering our rockets."
"You're going to land first stages, something even NASA hasn't done? Hahaha, good luck, You'll go bankrupt soon!"
"Hey, so we're pretty consistently landing and recovering rockets now..."
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If you want know why people tend to listen to Musk rather than his constant chorus of naysayers, it's because the naysayers have such an unbelievably bad track record with their naysaying. Come on, at least be like a stopped clock and be right once every so often.
Re: So funny (Score:5, Informative)
A lot of people expected more from autopilot than being the most advanced cruise control available on a car? That's their problem, not Tesla's.
Tesla's Model S ranges from $70,000-108,000, not $150,000.
Tesla has not, because Tesla is the car company. But if you meant to ask that about SpaceX:
Anything practical other than the 16 satellites they put into orbit? There were the 8 resupply missions to ISS, the tests of their manned capsule, a dozen more customers launching by the end of the year and dozens more out to 2020, and the Falcon 9 Heavy first launch which will double their payload capacity.
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It becomes Tesla's problem because it affects public perception of Tesla. They are at the next challenge, which is, can they manage the PR spin and survive it.
has Tesla done anything practical with their rockets yet?
Tesla has not, because Tesla is the car company. But if you meant to ask that about SpaceX...
Have you seen how fast a Tesla goes? [extremetech.com] 0-60 in 2.8 seconds. I think that qualifies as a rocket. :-)
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Don't bother with silly little things like ... ugh ... facts.
Haters gunna hate. They'll go on about how everyone is drinking the koolaid and they're the only ones with a real perspective and wah wah wah. Little things like facts that fly opposite their opinion are ignored. Other things that support their opinion but are minor get exaggerated. par for the course.
Tesla is losing money...because they're building and expanding as fast as they can. If they cared to sit back and just make a botique car line
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Who told you about Tesla's plans for a rocket-powered car? Someone's leaking private documents, and I'm going to need to find out who....
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You're of the strange view that there's something preventing Tesla from doing rounds of equity financing, the standard for a rapidly growing company (virtually all new companies go through repeat financing rounds, and continue to do so until their growth tapers off). Something Tesla has done many times in the past, and something that they've always gotten strong interest in the past, with much weaker demand lined up than that for the Model 3.
At some poin
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I too hate super smart & successful people who reach for the stars and don't always quite get there.
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Then you're clearly not paying attention.
Also he is overestimating his customer base for cars
Well, except for the 325,000+, $14.5B+ in PREsales for the model 3. That those people KNOW won't come for 1.5 years.
releasing a half baked solution that will kill them if they don't follow the instructions
As opposed to the non-semi-automated car I now drive? Will it save my life if I swerve into a truck?
So far I haven't seen anything smart there.
I'm pretty sure that's not a commentary on Musk....
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Will it save my life if I swerve into a truck?
Will you mistake a truck for a bridge? Will your manual car drive under it's own power into another vehicle while you are in a restaurant?
I meant overestimating in terms of ability to use half-baked autonomy, not overestimating in terms of sales. Since you bring up the sales, it is known that a large number of these people will get their money back rather than buy the car. Furthermore, Tesla may not even be able to produce them all so the jury is still out on how smart that move was.
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Will you mistake a truck for a bridge?
Humans do that WAY more than computers do.
"Known", huh?
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Please outline any recent accomplishments you've made, and let us compare to Musk. We are particularly interested in your fantastic success creating profitable startups with no outside investors in extremely difficult fields.
Thanks
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Right.
And I've also got $millions in the bank but I can't get to them just this minute, so can you buy luch?
Oh, and my Bently is being waxed, the Ferrari is a roadster and it looked like rain this morning, and my porche only seats two and I didn't know who was coming to lunch...so can you drive?
Oh, hey, I'm so fameous in this restaurant that they always stop everything and seranade me when I go in ... it's such a hassle...do you mind running in to grab the food too? I'm not banned for trying to skip my che
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Thank you! It's so easy to criticize and point out others' mistakes.
It's much more difficult to implement solutions to problems yourself. We need more of the latter.
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He put all of his Zip2 money into PayPal, then all of his PayPal money into Tesla and SpaceX. Yes he is also using other peoples' money.
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Both Tesla and Space X have enormous subsidies [latimes.com].
That article is a hit piece likely paid for by oil and auto interests. The article claims for instance that Tesla will receive a $1.29 billion dollar subsidy from Nevada for building the Giga-Factory. What Tesla was actually promised was a 1.3% break on the state sales tax. To cap the discount, the state said that the maximum total tax break over TWENTY YEARS could not exceed $1.29 billion dollars. Tesla would have to spend $100 billion dollars over 20 years to reach that; the article makes it seem like
Eh, looks pretty free-market to me. (Score:2)
What's not free-market about it, aside from the fact that if they'd printed outright lies they could have been sued? I really doubt that that's the kind of government intervention in free markets you were referring to. One of the colossal problems with free-market ideals is that the consumer will *never* have all the information, nor will the very partial info the have be representative or properly weighted by importance, nor will the (partial, sensationalized, and unrepresentational) information be unencum
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Way the fuck smarter than you.
Re: So funny (Score:4, Interesting)
But he is using other people's money, not his
So does every startup company. Investors and loans are normal, even when the founder can invest significantly into the company.
His competitors got pretty much the same tax incentives. If Chevy decided to make an ugly electric car and then not sell it, well, maybe that explains why Tesla is making headway.
That is probably where the traditional manufacturers made a mistake. EVs are new tech in the public mind, which implies a degree of uncertainty and risk---exactly what your typical econobox buyer avoids whenever possible. Tesla went after buyers who are willing to buy something because it's new and shiny or because it makes a statement.
Tesla still has a monopoly on performance/luxury EVs. And if you can deliver the goods in that market, you can probably economize your design down for the masses.
Still, the late delivery of virtually every product and feature would make me shy away from preordering anything. I like what's happening, but the company is far from perfect.
Re: So funny (Score:2, Insightful)
You disingenuously act as though he stole their money. He did not. I gladly invest in his companies, and have made a lot of money doing it.
You're welcome to hate or ignore him, but stop being a fucking liar and manipulator. There is nothing wrong with running a business, investment, or making profit. If you disagree, move to a 3rd world shithole where you'll be comfortable.
Re: So funny (Score:4, Interesting)
SolarCity isn't pretty revolutionary. But SpaceX and Tesla's work has been pretty revolutionary. No, it's not like SpaceX "invented rockets" or like Tesla "invented electric cars". But they did vastly change the paradigms in both regards and turn a bunch of new techniques / technologies from the kit / niche / hypothetical arena into mainstream production, as well as radically altering public perceptions..
I'm not sure why people don't see that as commendable.
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North Korea has lost a lot more than one rocket in the past few years.
[citation given] (Score:2)
F9-001: Success
F9-002: Success
F9-003: Success
F9-004: Primary mission success, secondary mission scrubbed due to ISS safety rules
F9-005: Success
F9-006: Success (first v1.1 flight)
F9-007: Success
F9-008: Success
F9-009: Success (first flight with landing legs)
F9-010: Success
F9-011: Success
F9-013: Success
F9-012: Success
F9-014: Success
F9-015: Success
F9-016: Success
F9-017: Success
F9-018: Success
F9-020: Failure, RUD at T+150s
F9-021: Success, first v1.1 FT, first successful landing at Canaveral
F9-019: Success
F9-022:
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Yeah, right?
It's not like he has a history of, say, putting actual rockets in space, or building an EV from scratch, or anything like that.
It's absurd that people are paying any attention at all, right?
Sounds amazing, but... (Score:2)
He hasn't finished the first master plan yet.
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He hasn't finished the first master plan yet.
Well, this was more a move to try reclaiming some positive PR ground than anything else. He didn't really state anything other than the obvious direction everyone already knows the autonomous vehicle space is heading.
But he had to do something... unfair or not, Tesla's been receiving a lot of bad press lately.
He should try trains (Score:5, Funny)
He should try trains. It might be easier to get the autopilot working.
Re: He should try trains (Score:2)
Maybe you've heard of Hyperloop?
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Maybe you've heard of Hyperloop?
I've heard of it but I can't seen it yet..
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Is that like rloop but with more publicity?
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Well duh. If you run on rails you have two variables - which track you're on, and where you are along it.
Disclaimer: worked on this kind of shit before GPS was even a thing.
New kind of pickup truck? (Score:2)
It's pretty much all been done, hasn't it? Even electric pickups have been done. They've been done with independent rear suspension, with or without unibody, cab-forward, cab-over, mid-engine, rear flat engine, etc etc etc. Granted, most of those were concepts, but some of them were production somewhere, somewhen, or even still are. What could possibly be new and still reasonably be called a pickup?
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Show me a current model 1/2 ton pickup that has an electric drive factory option. It doesn't exist at any price. VIA converts Chevys, and puts the equivalent of a 4 cylinder NA gas engine (~300ft-lb peak torque, 150ft-lb continuous torque) in a vehicle which can only carry 2/3 the load of the equivalent truck (1000lb vs 1500+). Oh, and it's $80k for the equivalent of a $35k appointed gas truck.
The 3 majors have fumbled the ball pretty completely on electric / hybrid trucks. Hell, they've fumbled the ball on
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Re: New kind of pickup truck? (Score:1)
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Well, I was hopeful when I heard "a new type of pickup"... and then quickly disappointed. Here's what I was hoping to see.
From an aerodynamics perspective, increasing a vehicle's height or width costs you energy, but increasing its length does not. Actually, just the opposite - a longer vehicle gives you more room for a more gradual taper and so can even decrease energy consumption.
The biggest hauling need in a pickup in a work environment is generally for things that are significantly longer than they a
Re:New kind of pickup truck? (Score:5, Informative)
Those pictures are not from Tesla. (Score:3)
Are you seriously unable to tell the difference between an official company sponsored concept and some fanboy renderings?
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I'm curious about your pickup truck concept. In my head, I'm imagining a somewhat-flattened cigar shape. I rather suspect that parking would be a bear, and that there'd be a serious possibility for rollovers.
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If you wanted to take it to extremes, you'd get something along the lines of a larger, heavy duty Aptera [inevitable.org]. Although for a pickup that's probably going a bit far. ;) At the very least, you need some depth on the rear end, and some degree of rear wheel spacing for load stability.
Re: rollovers, however, EVs are naturally resistant, because you keep the batteries on the underside of the vehicle.
One of my more extreme concepts is to have all of the wheels as self-contained, independent azipods, each with their
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65 mph = 105 kph = 29 m/s
Let's limit deceleration forces in an accident at those speeds to the human limit (around 100g).
a = -100G = -100 * 9,81m/s^2 = -981 m/s^2
v1 = v0 + at
0 = 29 + -981 * t
981t = 29
t = 0.03
Average velocity during deceleration = 29 / 2 = 14,5
0.03 * 14,5 = 0,42m = 1,3 feet.
No, you don't need vast distances to make highway-speed crashes into a brick wall survivable. Furthermore, that's not real-world
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Well, since their current electric cars way out-perform current gas cars (comparably priced ones), it wouldn't be a shocker at all.
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>Well, since their current electric cars way out-perform current gas cars (comparably priced ones), it wouldn't be a shocker at all.
That is a bit of a misnomer, they can out accelerate performance cars; all those cars out brake, handle, higher top speed, and have more range.
Other than that, they can out range cars costing half as much.
They beat everyone to the cruise system, but now need to play catchup to Ford and GM, in that their systems detect drowsy drivers, and force their customers to keep their h
Where is my Johnny Cab?! (Score:3)
I've been dreaming of it ever since I saw the movie.
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I've been dreaming of it ever since I saw the movie.
They did exist, but the manufacturers did a total recall on them. However it seems that you've erased that fact from your memory.
If it's 10 times safer than manual drivers... (Score:4, Funny)
Elon (Score:2)
That's what a "grand plan" is. (Score:4, Insightful)
"grand" implies "ambitious" and "plan" implies "future". If you just want a quarterly update then google for that.
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No, they want him to do what most businesses do: plan for only what you know you can already do. Also, focus only on short term profits...because if you can't explain how you'll make a profit it definitely isn't worth doing. Don't you know this is how innovation works?
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Could improve collision avoidance and other stuff (Score:3)
Where are the interconnected cars we were/are promised?
Where's the open standards that would allow - say - a Ford 20 miles ahead to warn an Audi or a Toyota of an icy patch, a crash or traffic slowdown?
Hell, GM has had OnStar for ages and it cannot do that even within its own brand.
Seems like the OEMs and the Googles, Apples etc. are too busy duking it out as to who will control the customer and her information to actually give two shits about what we actually want and need.
I'm guessing if a significant number (unlikely) of Tesla cars, bus and trucks get built than at least they'll be talking to each other.
No more terrorists needed (Score:2)
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The terrorist is already optional, at least on site. You only need to be able to install a cell-phone with a data plan as well as the hardware required to remote control the car. No need for self-driving and this can be done by modifying any current car/truck. The terrorist can sit comfortably in ISIS' headquarters while remote controlling the truck. It just happens to be cheaper to sacrifice a terrorist than to build that setup.
A logical move (Score:2)
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Or wise up and use such safety features as safety features not as default state.
Just because you have Anti-Lock brakes and All wheel drive. It doesn't mean you can drive like you would normally in snowy/icy conditions. These features that kick in make sure you are safe when an problem occurs, not as your main state.
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Autopilot does exactly what Tesla claims it does. It doesn't do what some people seem to think it does, but that's hardly Tesla's fault.
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It is a beta feature that requires driver attention. Looking at accident rate I'd say it is clearly safer than human drivers (3-4 accidents in 130 million miles).
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You can't compare Autopilot's safety on sections of road that it won't even be able to be used on.
Such as? What streets exactly does autopilot fail to work on? Autopilot won't stop for stop signs and street lights, but anywhere else it will work just fine.
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The problem with this "Sharing" Economy is that they had been abused to become a major income source.
It was intended for commuters to find people going to the same place. However it morphed into an unregulated taxi service.
The same thing with Air B&B Rent out your home while you go on vacation. Turned into a make shift hotel service.
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Not sure how that's abuse, but that's none of my business.
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Technically, it's an unregulated limousine service.
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The app sure sounds like a central dispatcher to me...
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Uber's only value is its network effect.
Anyone can copy the Uber app and model and competes against it. Most will fail because the network effect is a big barrier to entry.
Just like Facebook.
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> Tesla is doing all the hard work and running the cars seems to be just going 5% extra.
I think your selling that short to say it is 5% extra. You need chargers, parking, inventory, insurance, maintenance, advertising.
It did seam obvious Tesla is wanting to manage fleets of rentals, and include owners cars in them. But Uber has the app, the advertising, the eyeballs, the insurance all in the works.
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Most people with 2 cars would be perfectly fine even if one of them was a range-limited EV.
I would also say that most people wants clean air to breath.
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I meant a regular (non-Tesla) EV would be fine a second vehicle for most people. A Tesla is a fine first vehicle for most people. Don't forget many people spends as much on gas as on their car.
A lot of people have two cars and both are reliable enough for a long trip.
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There are already hybrid buses on the road. They employ regenerative braking, engine shutoff at stops, and electric assist on acceleration so the engine doesn't have to work as hard and can avoid inefficient operating conditions. Reports on efficiency vary, but some have claimed fuel savings of 33% or more.
Full electric buses are also available but not many are currently in use by transit systems. As costs come down and range improves they are likely to become more popular, especially on inner city bus rout