Microsoft Fueling HD Wars For Own Benefit?

DaveyJJ writes "According to Transformers' director Michael Bay, in a story over on Electronista, Microsoft is deliberately feeding into the HD disc format wars to ensure that its own downloads succeed where physical copies fail, he says in a response to a question posed through his official forums. The producer contends that Microsoft is writing "$100 million dollar checks" to movie studios to ensure HD DVD exclusives that hurt the overall market regardless of the format's actual merit or its popularity, preventing any one format from gaining a clear upper hand."

Alternative explanations

...Or maybe it's because Microsoft has been a strong backer of the format since the very beginning, and doesn't want it to end up like all of Sony's other consumer device formats. (Betamax, MiniDisc, Memory Stick, SACD, UMD...)

...Or maybe it's because HD-DVD is the format that its cash cow video game console system supports, whereas they have nothing to do with Blu-ray.

Of course, I could just be grasping at straws.

At any rate, I do think he is right in that neither format will be the choice for obtaining and playing hi-def content, online distribution ultimately will win.

Re:Alternative explanations

...because HD-DVD is the format that its cash cow video game console system supports...

And, alternately, Blu-ray is what Playstation 3 supports, which I think is more like what thier real motivation is - Xbox vs PS3.

Re:Alternative explanations

I was with you right up until the end....

I do think he is right in that neither format will be the choice for obtaining and playing hi-def content, online distribution ultimately will win.

Online distribution is only feasible if you have an Internet-enabled device connected to your HDTV. Sure, media center PCs are getting more common (and more affordable), and the numbers [vgchartz.com] on HD-ready game consoles are steadily rising, but the vast majority of HDTV owners do not possess either (a fact that will likely remain, as the magnitude of the HDTV sales figures [parksassociates.com] indicates).

Maybe in 10 years the tide will have turned and most people will be using online distribution. However, there's serious money to be made in the meantime, and that requires physical media.

Re:Alternative explanations

>online distribution ultimately will win.

Really? So right now in the lo-def world we cant get this stuff to work and Joe Sixpack isnt goign anywhere near it and when he does the quality is shit (netflicks) but next year or two we'll have the extra bandwidth and marketshare and the equipment and joe sixpack's trust and a pricing scheme that works and and ....

Right.

Discs are going to be the delivery mechanism for the forseeable future. MS is backing HDDVD. Sony is with Bluray. This is just a slashdot trolling hit and run page. Enjoy the ad impressions.

Not to mention if anyone pushes online distribution it'll be soaking in DRM. Enough to make bluray and hddvd look like Richard Stallman. This crowd will go apeshit and will never use it.

Because heaven knows....

Because heaven knows Sony hasn't thrown around a ton of money to make sure it gets as many studios and others on the Blu Ray train.

Both Sony and MS throw money into supporting the horse that their respective wagon is tied to. That's how it is.

And I agree that in the long term on line distribution will win, but before it can the internet as we know it needs some substantial upgrading. Not to support the concept (it already does), but to support what happens when the masses start using it.

Re:Because heaven knows....

And I agree that in the long term on line distribution will win, but before it can the internet as we know it needs some substantial upgrading. Not to support the concept (it already does), but to support what happens when the masses start using it.

Bingo! MS isn't trying to destroy physical media anymore than Verizon is trying to destroy the POTS. While both know that the future doesn't lay in these technologies both also know that for now they're pulling down a reasonable profit with them because of mass usage.

By the time the internet is seriously up to the task of delivering HD styled content to the masses both HD DVD and Blu Ray will have gone the way of the laser disc. The lifespan of these new formats will not be longer than that of the traditional DVD. We've been DVD for what now? 10 or 12 years? Do people here honestly think that technologies like FIOS are going to be nation wide (let alone world wide) in the next decade? I think people are fooling themselves into the ultra futuristic world of downloadable content being just around the corner. We have communities within 20 miles of a somewhat major city (if you can call Pittsburgh a major city) that still don't have DSL or Cable internet. This doesn't even bring the frail backbone of the internet into question.

Online content as a mass market is still a long ways off and it's ability to replace physical media won't be a reality in the next 10 years.

Re:Because heaven knows....

Both Sony and MS throw money into supporting the horse that their respective wagon is tied to. That's how it is.

I agree. However, it is very clear why Sony is willing to dump a ton of money into Blu-Ray. It's pretty much their format. They'll make a killing if it becomes dominant, and they'll loose a ton if it looses.

Microsoft, on the other hand, isn't as heavily invested. For example, their console supports HD-DVD only as an add-on. If HD-DVD becomes dominant, they get some licensing fees on each unit sold, which is no doubt nice, but not that big a deal.

I think Microsoft wants to kill Blu-ray, but they don't care if HD-DVD succeeds or not. They don't want to be at the mercy of Sony for two reasons:

1. If Blu-Ray becomes dominant, they'll be forced to licence it for their next console, (and possibly a XBOX360 add-on). What if Sony denies them? What if the fees put them at too much of a disadvantage.

2. Microsoft envisions some soft of computerized media center in each home. They need some control of the format to do this.

Re:Because heaven knows....

Blu ray is NOT a Sony format, anymore than the CD is a Sony format. They are the dominant member of the industry consortium that developed Blu Ray, and one of the original developers. Microsoft would never have to license Blu Ray from Sony, they would license it from the consortium just as with the regular CD.

What Microsoft does NOT like about Blu Ray is that it requires a java VM.

Wrong on two counts

Thanks for pointing this out, and correcting me. It sounds like Sony would still get the benefit of licensing fees

No, a neutral Blu-Ray forum gets the licensing fees [blu-raydisc.info]. Sony makes money the old fashioned way, selling hardware and software (media).

Do you know why this (Java support) a big deal to Microsoft? It doesn't sound like there's any practical reason to me

Why don't know why but we know it's a big deal to Microsoft, because the only thing that stopped HD-DVD and Blu-Ray combining a few years back was the refusial of the Blu-Ray consortium to add iHD (Microsofts menuing format) into the Blu-Ray standard.

Claims made about BD-J that bear scrutiny

Microsoft have many political reasons to dislike Java, but BD-J being a messy, ill-specced pile of slowness in comparison to iHD is a valid technical one.

This is actually the first time I've seen anyone claim that BD-J is poorly specified or slow. Could you provide some references to support that contention?

I can't speak to the speed of BD-J, though clearly this smacks of the "Java is slow" FUD that Java proponents have been dealing with for years now. Java VMs aren't really "slow" anymore, unless you're dealing with memory-constrained devices. Most Blu-Ray players are going to have plenty enough RAM, so I don't think constrained memory footprint is going to be an issue.

As for the "ill-specced" claim, I'm puzzled. I know that BD-J is based on an already existing standard for embedding interactive Java content in terrestrial television broadcasts and European cable transmissions; this technology is used, for example, in the German version of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" (or maybe it was "Deal or No Deal") -- it allows viewers to play along at home using their remote control. BD-J is just an extension of this already existing and deployed standard, so how is it poorly specified?

I attended JavaOne in 2006, and attended a couple sessions on BD-J and related technologies, so that's where I got my information from.

proof?

Does he have any sort of proof to back up this assertion? Not to mention that TFA states that Bay has gone on record saying he prefers Blu-ray. Considering all the crap that Michael Bay has put out, I have no problem calling this his own version of FUD.

They wrote the HD content software.

Microsoft wrote the software for the HD interactive [wikipedia.org], which means they must be getting a royalty for each machine.

What's a few $100M here and there when you have the potential to collect so many licenses from consumer boxes?

Plus, the Blu-Ray content software is written in Java. What better reason for MS to hate it?

Strategically consistent

This development appears to be consistent and predictable. Look at Vista and its license agreement, and you see M$ trying to control not only the software layer but levying requirements on hardware makers, i.e. toe the line and show commitment to DRM in every layer of hardware or M$ won't certify your drivers, and this means NOT providing any open source drivers to the Linux community. Although Peter Gutmann's essay contained some inaccuracies, it detailed these steps. Why did M$ abandon technical functionality for the end user in favor of an OS that provides a bit of eye candy to users but a whole lot of technology that is aimed at protecting content provider monopoly? Why did they release the ultra-DRM portable platform, the Zune, about the same time? Why is M$ now meddling in the media content market, apparently trying to orchestrate some sort of movement in HD media? It has looked for some time like M$ sees the revenue stream Apple has through ITunes and thought it worthwhile to put a stake in the ground for developing a media market. Which, in typical M$ fashion, they want to control absolutely. Look for M$ to either acquire or announce a media provider that offers only protected WMA and ultra-DRMed MP3 formats to compete against ITunes. M$ sees that the OS and application space has limited legs. They appear to be making a move toward becoming a content provider. Pretty savvy on their part, but I think their jack-booted super-mega-ultra-DRM approach will not be well received. They're either way out in front on the cutting edge, or a dinosaur trying to put a cap on emerging mammals in the media marketplace. Time will tell.

Re:Strategically consistent

I thought about that too. A while back actually. If MS causes waves in the media industry. Get consumers pissed off and not buying, then stock prices fall and they can buy into some of these studios. They've already started putting up data centers. (preparing for what?) I think they saw the success of iTunes and wanted to get a leg up on the next thing. iMovies? Moviesoft? If they can buy into the studios, they can get voting privileges and coax the studios into giving the "exclusive" access to heavily DRM'd download movies. I'm pretty sure this is why Vista was so DRM heavy and the whole move behind Media Center functionality. To get that ball rolling in their biggest market. Once (if) they get to that point, they simply claim that OSX and Linux are not secure enough to protect the artist and therefore they do not support clients on those machines. They essentially turn the movie industry into the gaming industry and get a cut of every sale cementing their long term income.

FUD

Maybe MS sees Blu Ray as the next Betamax? (http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060420-6641.html)

Maybe since they're offering their set top game box in HD DVD it's a business interest?

What's the problem here and why is this news?

They have real interest in seeing HD get the upper hand. Yes. Would they like to see downloadable content as a better business prospective? Yes. Who doesn't. MS has invested billions into their 360 product, throwing in a bit more money to give it the edge in home movies isn't unthinkable and certainly isn't unheard of.

I seriously do not understand why people are in such a twist over this. Oh, that's right, it's because it's big bad Microsoft and we all need to focus our attention for our daily two minutes of hate.

Re:

Heh, what I find funny is that if, say, Apple, did the exact same thing, people would be happy.

I don't care for the why.

I don't care why Microsoft would support HD-DVD, I'm just glad that they do although the argument seems rather foolish because you could equally argue Sony are trying to fuel the HD-DVD war so that they can sell more PS3s and downloadable movies via their online store too.

The HD-DVD format whilst not perfect is much more consumer friendly in that it's cheaper, it's region free and it's backwards compatible to an extent.

In comparison Bluray suffers from being region locked, having much more unfriendly, more problematic DRM and doesn't support backwards compat. in DVD players.

A lot of people don't want HD-DVD to win because Microsoft are backing it, but I think Microsoft is the lesser of two evils in this case, the biggest bonus for me is the region free part, whilst this is probably largely useless for North American consumers who get films earlier and cheaper anyway for those of us in Europe this is immensly important, rather than paying £23.99 for a film we can import it for about £15 and often get it 6 months earlier. With Bluray you're stuck with your £23.99 cost and the 6 month delay between North American and European releases.

Sadly it may be too late, HD-DVD isn't holding up that well right now it would seem, for me personally if HD-DVD won I would buy an HD-DVD player because of the cheap import HD-DVDs I can buy but if Bluray won I'd go for online purchases of HD content for no other reason than I refuse to pay over £15 for a movie.

Re:

I don't believe Michael Bay either, but how deliciously evil would this be if Microsoft actually planned this? This is the kind of evilness that requires a slow clap.

How is this open?

Yes, how deliciously evil for Microsoft to be buying support for an open and public standard (HD-DVD)

I'm sorry, but at least, say, OOXML pretends to be open. Google for "OOXML Specification dowload" and the very first result has PDFs, linked to directly, not even so much as a free registration required.

I develop HD-DVD applications for a living. On my desk are four volumes of "DVD Specifications for High Definition VIDEO (HD DVD-Video)", totaling almost three inches thick. (I'd tell you how many pages, but the pages are not numbered.) There's probably another three and a half inches worth of updates, which someone else here has read and memorized, that I don't really look at.

We do not have these in electronic form. As far as I know, you cannot get them in electronic form, and they do not come with an index, which makes them a bitch to search until you start to memorize enough of it to have a vague idea of where to start randomly flipping through to find what you need.

This is because on every single page, at the bottom of the page, is the following notice:

DO NOT COPY ©Copyright 2005--2006 The DVD Forum*. All rights reserved. CONFIDENTIAL

"Open" and "public" my ass.

Re:I call bullshit on this one...

It also doesn't make much logical sense. Bay claims that MS is prolonging the format war until they can get downloadable video working right, then swoop in and be declared "A winner is you!" Seems to me that Bay as been watching too many of his own movies.

True, Downloadable video is nice, as is stuff like Video on demand. I can picture telling my kids that "In my day, if you wanted to watch a show? You just had to wait until it was on." However, I don't think that downloadable movies will ever overtake actually having the disk in hand. If I want to watch Army Of Darkness, I don't want to wait 20 minutes for it to stream, then hope that my connection stays steady enough to prevent it from freezing. Just pop in the disk, no problem. The more steps you take from wanting to watch a movie, and pressing play, the worse off it is, in my opinion.

Re:I call bullshit on this one...

Microsoft is quite obviously betting it will. In fact, they've been telling people that's the future that Microsoft will bring for years now. I went to a "Digital Home" show that was nothing more than Microsoft shilling their Digital Home products under a different name.

Throw in the added benefit of taking some of the wind out of the PS3 and it seems like a very cheap way for Microsoft to purchase marketshare in several different markets (Console, DVD Downloads, Home Electronics).

Re:I call bullshit on this one...

pppffft.

That's already the case with Tivos and Tivo-like devices.

You just wait until it's "been released" and then decide
when you're going to get around to watching it after that.
The more storage space you have in your PVR, the more it
starts to look like your own personal VOD system. You
just need to give it a little time to accumulate stuff.

Streaming is always open to problems. Whereas whole files are
a lot more reliable to deal with. It doesn't really matter if
they were downloaded from a torrent or recorded off of some
TV broadcast channel.

Re:

CDs aren't yet dead, and the mp3 format is older than a decade.
      So yes, it will take a decade for downloaded videos to kill DVDs and high definition alternatives

Re:

Microsoft is only prolonging this battle between the different formats, to enable more choice for the consumer! Nope, I couldn't write that either with a straight face...

Re:Wait a minute

No, the complaint isn't that Microsoft is supporting one format over another or even both at the same time. The problem is that they are allegedly encouraging "exclusives" on one format or another, i.e. you want a particular movie, you can only buy the HD-DVD version. This means consumers have less choice, not more.