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The Trouble With TiVo

Posted by Zonk on Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:03 AM
from the cute-little-antenna-guy dept.
BobCratchit writes "Multichannel News has an interesting take on TiVo: The DVR company has incredible mindshare but is totally dependent on cable providers to survive. Cable does not have many good reasons to let TiVo thrive. As a result, TiVo is destined to fade away unless it can carve out a niche as the cool kids' DVR (a la Macintosh) with products like the $299 HD DVR it just announced. From the article: 'TiVo has long been a darling of consumer-tech reviewers -- check out, for example, these happy hosannas from BusinessWeek, New York Times and Wall Street Journal. These guys are constantly befuddled that TiVo hasn't been more successful. Yes, TiVos make cute little popping noises when you click the remote. And they definitely provide cool features, like suggesting shows you might be interested in. But the cognoscenti enamored with TiVo's whizziness ignore a certain reality. It's easier to get a DVR from your cable company. And most people prefer to rent, not own, a set-top.'"
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[+] News: Tivo HD Released Into the Wild 228 comments
B.Gud writes "Tivo has launched the new 'Tivo HD' DVR, validating what was learned from retailer leaks last week. The new unit is available for orders and will ship in early August, but the good news is that Tivo is going to activate serial ATA later this year, and that TivoToGo support is coming as well. From the article: 'Suffice it to say that it's the machine we thought it was, loaded with dual tuners, support for two CableCARDs (or one MCard!), a 160GB drive (180 hours recording SD, 20 hours HD), and HDMI. It really makes the Series 3 look weak. Or put another way, it makes the Series 3 into the boutique device it really is.'"
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  • by catbutt (469582) on Friday July 27 2007, @11:06AM (#20010997)
    is for tivo to sell/rent their dvr's through the cable company. Its not like the cable company makes their own dvr's currently
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Ahhh yes... The quick and dirty reasons why Tivo is the bane of cable companies existence.

      1. Not invented here. Cable companies didn't think of it so it's bad. Period. No logic. Just bad.
      2. Negatively affects ratings. Since most "cable companies" are subsidiaries of the entertainment conglomerates, you bet the word comes from the mountain top that pvr's are bad. Dings ratings, failure to fully monetize their content.
      3. Most consumers believe renting the box is a benefit. This is a dead end for consu
      • Ahhh yes... The quick and dirty reasons why Tivo is the bane of cable companies existence.
        [list of reasons clipped]


        You missed a big one. CONTROL.

        Cable companies control the entire DVR user experience when you rent/buy their boxes. (If you buy a box off eBay, the cable company will "update" its firmware).

        TiVo doesn't let them do that. Instead of ads plastered everywhere (mine - if you scroll the guide (which only shows 5 channels because the full-screen guide has the top half used) using the up/down buttons, they stick an ad at the bottom of the list, reducing the guide to only 4 channels long, but the ad is a "hotspot" now, so it takes 5 button pushes) - TiVo only lets them have one at the bottom of the main menu (rotates) with the rest hidden under a "Showcase" menu.

        It's also not like TiVo can't support stuff like Video On Demand or Pay Per View (I don't use it, I don't care, my "bonus" coupons from the cable company haven't been touched) - they did PPV stuff just fine with DirecTV.

        Also, I suspect they know once people go TiVo, they're not going back. There are a lot of unhappy DirecTV customers since the DirecTiVo was discontinued (and I'm sure, many ex-DirecTV customers from those who left when it was revealed that the replacement DVRs are crap, much like the cable DVR). So the Cable company really doesn't want to be beholden to people who get used to TiVo, and who'll leave their cable service behind when they decide to abandon TiVo. They want a nice audience who'll sit infront of the TV, without considering alternative TV providers.
  • VCR (Score:3, Funny)

    by atanamar (638935) on Friday July 27 2007, @11:09AM (#20011035) Journal
    I still enjoy my VCR, thank you very much...
  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 27 2007, @11:09AM (#20011039)
    No suprise people like renting, as it's quickly becoming the 'new' model for everything.

    You don't own a cellphone, you rent it.
    You don't own the DVR, you rent it.
    You don't own that DVD, you license it.

    Pretty soon, you will not 'own' your 'Personal' Computer, you will rent it.
    You already effectivly rent the software, it works for the MMORPG, it can work for Microsoft Word.

    It's a way to ensure a 100% foolproof revenue stream.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      Dude you already RENT a Tivo. if you do not pay for the lifetime subscription after purchase you are in essence RENTING it.

      Yeah,yeah, you can call it subscribing to the guide service, but then why does it completely stop working when I stop paying? it should work as a VCR and let me access everything I recorded when on the service.

      I know that some of the wierder DVD recorders have a "tivo basic" that does just that, but the older Tivo's and the new HD units dont.
  • by Applekid (993327) on Friday July 27 2007, @11:10AM (#20011053)

    It's easier to get a DVR from your cable company.
    It's also easier to buy fast food than cook some yourself.

    Anyone I've let play with my Tivo for a while thinks it's cool, but to really appreciate getting cherry-picked recommendations, automatic deletions, season tickets, video podcasts, and other features it's gotta be in your home.

    It's too bad TiVo isn't in such great financial shape because all they'd really have to do is give away a bunch of boxes for free and let people play with them for a month. They have it now, pure leased boxes where you just pay your subscription. But it's pricey.

    I wonder if they could get puchased by a company with more financial backing.
  • TiVo has some great things going for it. Whether or not it can beat the marketing and packaging deals of the cable and sat companies, I don't know, but there's some aspects that just beat out other offerings, including Mythboxen:

    It works. All the time, every time, with minor exceptions. I have a wife who loves certain TV programs and will easily strangle anything that doesn't work and record them like they should.

    It doesn't require a degree to run Sure, it might lack some more complex features that some people like. It might make annoying, "to-TOINK!", noises when you move around. But an idiot with a blindfold could sort it out, and that makes it easy on me. Not that my wife's an idiot; far from it. But I don't need to be explaining to her how to run the damned TV.

    I can screw with it Because I own the box, it's mine. I can hack it, fiddle with it, change out hard drives, use them for something else, add to it, paint it, whatever I want. I might void my warranty, but whoop-de-do. I can because I own it.

  • Guys (and it's usually guys), we luff ya, but get over it.

    It's wicked kewl thyat you can take a spare PC, install some clever software on it, find a source for TV listings, and make it do amazing tricks. Really. Wow. Awesome. Yay you!

    But many of the rest of us aren't interested in doing that ourselves. For us, an appliance, like a TiVo, is the way to go. A black box, paying for a service contract, IT JUST WORKS.

    I diddle with enough technology, I don't want to with my DVR. I just want it to have a great interface and a steady supply of programming that engages me. Everything else is gravy (and yes, the Tivo has some gravy too.)

    So please, whenever you hear the name "TiVo" don't go into a pavlovian MythTV-MythTV-MythTV chant.

    We get it. We got it. We're getting annoyed over it. We're getting to the point you're not getting invited to the fun parties because you can't restrain yourselves. Soon you'll be in pushed into the holy roller corner with the Operalytes (poor souls).

    Some folks can't understand why anyone would watch TV. Some can't understand why anyone would pay for it. Some can't see a need for a DVR. Some can't see the need for paying a bit more for a TiVo DVR. Some can't understand whyeveryone doesn't just whittle their own DVR out of pine. Please, live and let live and let us hold a discussion without your pulling your homebrew out and wagging at us. It's big, that's nice, now let us talk about the conumer product we're interested in.

  • by apachetoolbox (456499) on Friday July 27 2007, @11:51AM (#20011747) Homepage
    Tivo wont die because of the cable companies' DVR, Tivo is a much better product. But I could easily see Tivo dieing out because of the mandatory subscription. If anything that is what is going to kill them. I love my Tivo but there's no justifying the high monthly subscription.
    • by thczv (541683) on Friday July 27 2007, @12:39PM (#20012559)
      Sometimes I think like you, that the Tivo subscription is too high. Other times I compare to the other things I spend my money on. My cost for a second Tivo (due to the multi-service discount) is only $6.95 per month. This is is about 75% of the cost of a single movie ticket. Today, I will probably spend around $6.95 on my lunch, and in 20 to 30 hours or so it will be in the sewer. But my Tivo will still be giving. There are very few things that I spend $6.95 on that give me as much as my Tivo. Even if I had to pay full price, it would be worth doing. My stupid comcast DVR sucks compared to my Tivo. I estimate that at least 90% of the people who don't want a Tivo have never used one, and so don't know what they are missing. thczv
  • by Fallen Kell (165468) on Friday July 27 2007, @11:59AM (#20011897)
    There are three easy changes that TIVO can do that would allow them to dominate, let alone survive.

    1. Ethernet Network connectivity to allow access to the web as well as network diskspace

    2. Allow the users FULL control of the device (i.e. if you hit that 30sec skip button, do the 30 sec skip....)

    3. Allow ability to record shows to physical media such as DVD, BluRay, or HDDVD

    There you have it. The big three. The first company to release such a device will dominate the market as this is what the consumer wants, not what Hollywood wants. Remember we are a capitalist society, which means the consumer is in charge of what they want, not the corporations (even though the corporations do not want to admit this, their income is directly tied to the consumers purchasing their products).
  • by martyb (196687) on Friday July 27 2007, @01:47PM (#20013585)

    What DO you get if you put these together?

    • Google Set to Bid $4.6 Billion for Airwaves [slashdot.org]
    • FTFA: Let's consider one other option: Could TiVo sell itself, perhaps to Cisco/Scientific Atlanta or Motorola? Not likely. True, the company is affordable. TiVo's market cap was around $550 million as of Thursday. The problem is that TiVo carries baggage -- i.e., its existing business model. Cisco/SA and Motorola wouldn't want to continue to service and support the 4.3 million TiVo subscribers out there, and it would be a rather pricey acquisition just to get the technology. I can't imagine buying TiVo would tickle Comcast's fancy either.(emphasis added)

    The author of the article apparently perceives support of 4.3 million fanatic users as a burden!!??!!! I propose that Google would do well to buy TiVo.

    Granted, there are additional costs beyond an acquisition: building the wireless infrastructure, merging it all together... but to put this in perspective, I just checked market caps:

    • GOOG [cnn.com] $158 Billion ($158,390 Million)
    • TIVO [cnn.com] $.55 Billion ($000,550 Million)
    (NB: GOOG's Market Cap went up $190M while I was writing this post.)

    Lessee, $4.6B + $0.55B = $5.1B for nation-wide reach, a fanatic user-base (TiVo users), direct access to what customers are watching (more data!), YouTube tie-in capability (they already have a distributed video infrastructure)... what's not to like?

    Heck, google could afford to give TiVos away, and have a guaranteed platform on which to sell its ads - nationwide, just for a few $billion more.

    Prediction: if Google gets the wireless spectrum it is looking for, I expect to see "GooTiVo" (TM) within a year.

    • Yea, but doesn't your lifetime subscription only apply to the box you have right now? If you were to upgrade to a Series3 for example, it would go away?
      • Re:TiVo Over Cable (Score:4, Informative)

        by tlhIngan (30335) <.ten.frow. .ta. .todhsals.> on Friday July 27 2007, @11:23AM (#20011285)

        Yea, but doesn't your lifetime subscription only apply to the box you have right now? If you were to upgrade to a Series3 for example, it would go away?


        Except for the few-times-a-year offer where you can get a Series 3, and transfer the lifetime sub to it. Everyone knew about the one that ended Jan 1, 2007, but since then, I have seen at least 2 more (one that ended last week, too!).

        Basically, if you have a Series 2 with lifetime, they will for $200 let you transfer it to a Series 3. Bonus - the old Series 2 gets 3 years of prepaid service (nominally $300). So your old TiVo still gets service, and lifetime is moved to your shiny new Series 3.
    • Re:DVR (Score:5, Informative)

      by jeffmeden (135043) on Friday July 27 2007, @11:20AM (#20011245) Homepage Journal
      MythTV or... MythTV. It's all the same to me as long as the commercials are deleted before I watch the show.
      • Re:DVR (Score:4, Interesting)

        by glindsey (73730) on Friday July 27 2007, @12:56PM (#20012793)
        And MythTV's recording stability is going to be seriously negatively impacted by Zap2It Labs shutting down [zap2it.com]. Yes, MythTV's dev team has stated they can go back to website scraping, but that will break every single time the website's format is slightly altered.

        Don't get me wrong, I really like MythTV, but when it loses its only source of reliable guide data, I anticipate some serious problems.
        • Re:DVR (Score:5, Informative)

          by Reverend528 (585549) on Friday July 27 2007, @11:34AM (#20011479) Homepage

          Yes, and nothing like losing a minute of the show because of a false positive...
          Mythtv doesn't actually delete the commercials, it merely flags them so that they may be automagically skipped. In the event of a false positive, it's quite easy to go back and see what was skipped.
        • Re:DVR (Score:4, Informative)

          by jeffmeden (135043) on Friday July 27 2007, @01:25PM (#20013249) Homepage Journal
          It's simple, MythTV is never wrong. Seriously. In over a year of extensive recording with the new commercial detect engine, it has only erred toward caution, and an extra commercial creeps into the playback. Trust me, it beats the hell out of fast forwarding.

          Plus, they aren't really 'gone' like the other poster said.
      • Re:DVR (Score:5, Informative)

        by jargoone (166102) on Friday July 27 2007, @01:25PM (#20013245)
        Sigh. Every time a TiVo article gets posted, I have to do this. Here we go.

        Have you looked at any of TiVo's features in the last, oh, 7 years? TiVo can do a large subset of what you can do with a MythTV box, "Media Center-ish" PC (whatever that means), and has a service to download stuff. With a TiVo, you can use it as a DVR, transfer recordings to your PC, play your own music, play music on the internet, play purchased movies that are downloaded to your TiVo, check traffic, check weather, check movie listings, buy movie tickets, and that's just using their out-of-the-box supported features. They have an open API for application development that makes the possibilities nearly endless.

        And as a bonus, since it's "done right", people like me can watch TV without worrying about my guide data provider vanishing, or my wife calling me because the damn front-end needs restarting.

        Based on every cable company's DVR I've seen, they better be looking elsewhere for lunch.
      • Re:DVR (Score:5, Informative)

        by Canthros (5769) on Friday July 27 2007, @02:04PM (#20013873)
        Amazon Unbox can now be accessed directly from your TiVo.
        With the right (TiVo-provided) software, you can tell your TiVo where on the local network it may find your MP3s and photographs, which you may then play or browse at you leisure. (That feature is at least three years old.) Dunno about video on your local network. However, I can check that out this evening.

        In the mean time, if the cable companies "eat TiVo's lunch", we won't get a better TiVo. TiVo will be gone, and we'll be stuck with mediocre, cable company DVRs and over-priced HTPCs. And AppleTV, which isn't the same thing at all. Well, and ReplayTV, but I can't recall the last time I actually saw one of those in a store.

        You can crack open your TiVo and upgrade its hard drive right now. Takes some know-how, but not that much more than doing the same thing to a PC, from what I recall. There have been versions which included built-in DVD burners (they were $$$, so didn't sell so great, IIRC, ca 2004, when DVD recorders were $$$). And it's easy to use. It may not be a general computer, but there's really no good excuse for making it one, either.
      • Re:DVR (Score:4, Interesting)

        by jsdcnet (724314) on Friday July 27 2007, @02:37PM (#20014337)

        I hope the cable cos do eat TiVo's lunch. As it stands, a TiVo is just a DVR "done right," according to people that own them. If regular DVRs become that good/decent/whatever, it will force TiVo to come up with something better.
        I owned a TiVo (direcTV version) for 4 years and I've been using the Comcast supplied Motorola DVR for a year now. The difference is night and day. Comcast is a clunky, unreliable POS and TiVo was a brilliantly designed totally reliable joy to use. If the cable cos do "eat TiVo's lunch" I expect that just means we'll all be stuck using clunky unreliable POS's forever, since the cableco's will have no incentive to improve their product.