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Power United States

IEA Lowers Renewables Forecast For Clean Hydrogen (reuters.com) 34

Although hydrogen-dedicated renewable energy capacity is expected to increase by 45 GW between 2022 and 2028, the estimates are 35% lower than what the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted a year ago. Reuters reports: There is growing political momentum for low-emission hydrogen but actual implementation has been held up by uncertain demand outlooks, a lack of clarity in regulatory frameworks, and a lack of infrastructure to deliver hydrogen to end users, the IEA said in an emailed response to questions. Slow progress on real-world implementation "is a consequence of barriers that could be expected in a sector that needs to build up new and complex value chains," the IEA said. Uncertainties have been exacerbated by inflation and sluggish policy implementation.

Expected renewable energy capacity for hydrogen production represents just 7% of the capacity pledged for the same period and one tenth the sum of government targets for 2030, IEA said in its report. Around 75% of expected capacity is based in three countries, with China taking the lion's share, followed by Saudi Arabia and the United States, the IEA says.

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IEA Lowers Renewables Forecast For Clean Hydrogen

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  • by Rosco P. Coltrane ( 209368 ) on Saturday February 03, 2024 @02:21AM (#64210128)

    From TFA:

    Hydrogen is hard and expensive to transport, opens new tab and store, with exceedingly low temperatures needed to create liquid hydrogen and high leakage rates for gaseous hydrogen.

    They're not thinking it through: just use one oxygen atom as a handy carrying handle for two hydrogen atoms, and hey presto, it becomes really easy to transport.

    • From TFA:

      Hydrogen is hard and expensive to transport, opens new tab and store, with exceedingly low temperatures needed to create liquid hydrogen and high leakage rates for gaseous hydrogen.

      They're not thinking it through: just use one oxygen atom as a handy carrying handle for two hydrogen atoms, and hey presto, it becomes really easy to transport.

      At the same time, wear another H2O molecule as a hat because the copyright on Mickey Mouse has expired.

    • They're not thinking it through: just use one oxygen atom as a handy carrying handle for two hydrogen atoms, and hey presto, it becomes really easy to transport.

      Or we could use one carbon atom as a handy carrying handle for two hydrogen atoms. We can string those carbon atoms together to make all kinds of interesting fuels that would be easy to transport and store. We could get the carbon from biomass, or carbon capture, to close the carbon loop.

      If not carbon then maybe nitrogen?

    • They're not thinking it through: just use one oxygen atom as a handy carrying handle for two hydrogen atoms, and hey presto, it becomes really easy to transport.

      You need to be able to transport it in a way that can be readily used on the other end. Lighting something on fire is easier when you don't need to pump it into a proton exchange membrane in the presence of high voltage first.

  • by jcochran ( 309950 ) on Saturday February 03, 2024 @02:51AM (#64210154)

    I would agree that making and storing liquid hydrogen is costly and dangerous. Additionally, there's issues with leakage when it's in its gaseous form. But, there is a form available that has a proven history of ease of use as well as easily stored. Simply combine with carbon to produce chains of carbon. By using different lengths of chains, one can create anything from an easily used gas that can be liquified at room temperature as well as easily burned liquids that are liquid at room temperature and atmospheric pressure. If one is worried about carbon dioxide, the obtain the required carbon from atmospheric carbon dioxide, making the storage, transportation, and usage carbon neutral.

    • the obtain the required carbon from atmospheric carbon dioxide

      I think you don't understand the scale of these processes. DAC in both forms currently available requires between 6 and 10 GJ / tonne of CO2 captured, most of this in heat, with the more efficient process requiring high temperatures. You'd be burning a significant portion of the hydrogen generated just to capture the carbon needed to later convert hydrocarbons. There's no wind farm or solar panel large enough to make this a viable process, you're literally combining 3 very energy intensive processes togethe

  • Green hydrogen is typically produced through electrolysis which is very energy inefficient, and once produced hydrogen is difficult to store. The very small size of the hydrogen molecule means that leaks are very likely, and the pressures and low temperatures required to store hydrogen in liquid form add to the costs. Converting hydrogen to Methane (CH3) or Methanol (CH3OH) introduce a troubling carbon (C) atom which needs carbon capture (CCS) when they are used which again increases costs. Converting to am

    • by ukoda ( 537183 )
      I think home batteries are an important complement to grid scale batteries as they help reduce issues with lower quality parts of the grid, notably rural power feeds.
    • Mostly agree with you. But for off-grid unwired transport, standard battery may not be the best choice. It may be the weather being too cold there, or it may be the battery is too heavy to carry for extreme long distance. There is a tipping point where energy density surplus (read: lighter vehicle/plane/ship) trumps the energy inefficiency in manufacturing the organic chemicals.

      At that point, methane/LNG, propane/LPG, ammonia, or maybe even hydrogen can be better solution.

    • NH3 conversion efficiency isn't bad at all, especially compared to all the alternatives. The far bigger problem is risk. You need big ammonia plants and that stuff is *looks up the technical term* fucking nasty on a risk of accident scale.

      Forget the green hydrogen and just install grid scale batteries

      No one is proposing hydrogen as a solution for where batteries can be used instead. Okay, no one other than Toyota with it's head in the tar-sands is proposing hydrogen as a solution where batteries can be used instead. The point of hydrogen is to de-carbonise heavy indust

      • by Zuriel ( 1760072 )
        This. Green hydrogen has an important role to play in steelmaking and other industries. Using it as an incredibly inefficient battery by turning it back into electricity though? That's a terrible idea.
    • by rossdee ( 243626 )

      Maybe we should try yellow hydrogen instead.

      • Huh? Yellow hydrogen? Oh, I found how it's defined...
        https://www.nationalgrid.com/s... [nationalgrid.com]

        Yellow hydrogen is how we define hydrogen produced from solar power. But the sun isn't yellow, it's green.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

        If I understand this correctly the human eye isn't as sensitive to green light as other colors, which is especially true for people with certain kinds of color blindness. This explains why green traffic lights have a bluish tint to them, and perhaps could explain why old LCD screens

    • Forget the green hydrogen and just install grid scale batteries, they are proven technology, they are cheap and getting cheaper by the day. Batteries are already very efficient for storing and retrieving energy, and electricity cables are a proven and effective way to transport electricity.

      This is a pretty common misconception. "Grid scale" batteries are neither cheap, nor serving the same purpose something like a hydrogen burner presumably would.

      Current grid-tied batteries are predominantly used for ancillary functions. So ensuring grid stability minute to minute, not necessarily for load shifting. Actual energy arbitrage is not even remotely profitable with current battery technology, and is only attempted in places with extreme subsidies and harsh mandates. Even then, at full discharge ca

      • by HiThere ( 15173 )

        The proper way to address the 3rd level is with "carbon recapture" kinds of things. Hydrogen + carbon -> hydrocarbon. Well, you need some oxygen, too. This requires building some excess capacity, and the capture plants, and storage facilities. And maintaining the hydrocarbon burning plants. This will be a cost center, not a profit center, as recapturing carbon is going to be expensive. You want to avoid burning the "recaptured carbon", as part of the justification is to lower the carbon component o

    • They are not competitive technologies. Batteries are great for grid storage, but not useful for shipping energy globally, as a chemical feedstock, nor for seasonal storage.

      Yes, you are correct the fossil fuel industry likes hydrogen for the reasons you give, but also because shipping gases is what they do. If the fossil fuel industries and their skill sets survive while not destroying the environment that's not a bad thing.

  • The argument is already won, electric is better. Most hydrogen is made by splitting methane anyway, green hydrogen via electrolysis is low efficiency at this time, compared to just using that electricity to charge a battery..
    • by HiThere ( 15173 )

      Not clear. Electric is better when you've got a generator available. This generally isn't true on, say, an airplane. There are lots of circumstances where having a stored fuel is a big benefit, and it's difficult to do that at scale with electric power.

      There probably *ISN'T* a good "one size fits all" solution.

    • The argument is already won, electric is better. Most hydrogen is made by splitting methane anyway, green hydrogen via electrolysis is low efficiency at this time, compared to just using that electricity to charge a battery..

      Your local hospital likely has multiple diesel or NG backup generators for when the grid goes down. You are not going to run a hospital on batteries for any significant length of time, so what is your carbon neutral solution for stationary backup generation? Synfuels and H2 seem to be the only choices. Perhaps ammonia, which has just as many challenges.

    • If electrolysis of water is too inefficient then consider another process, such as a sulfur-iodine cycle.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      Maybe in the end batteries still have a higher total end-to-end efficiency but batteries require expensive materials while sulfur and iodine are pretty cheap. Fossil fuels aren't exactly known for being efficient but they are cheap. Then comes the costs of any inconvenience of time spent charging batteries, or the problems of batteries having so much mass/weight/volume

The 11 is for people with the pride of a 10 and the pocketbook of an 8. -- R.B. Greenberg [referring to PDPs?]

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