Follow Slashdot blog updates by subscribing to our blog RSS feed

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
Hardware

PC CPU Shipments See Steepest Decline In 30 Years (tomshardware.com) 128

According to a new report by Dean McCarron of Mercury Research, the x86 processor market has just endured "the largest on-quarter and on-year declines in our 30-year history." "Based on previously published third-party data, McCarron is also reasonably sure that the 2022 Q4 and full-year numbers represent the worst downturn in PC processor history," adds Tom's Hardware. From the report: The x86 processor downturn observed has been precipitated by the terrible twosome of lower demand and an inventory correction. This menacing pincer movement has resulted in 2022 unit shipments of 374 million processors (excluding ARM), a figure 21% lower than in 2021. Revenues were $65 billion, down 19 percent YoY. McCarron was keen to emphasize that Mercury's gloomy stats about x86 shipments through 2022 do not necessarily directly correlate with x86 PC (processors) shipments to end users. Earlier, we mentioned that the two downward driving forces were inventory adjustments and a slowing of sales -- but which played the most significant part in this x86 record slump?

The Mercury Research analyst explained, "Most of the downturn in shipments is blamed on excess inventory shipping in prior quarters impacting current sales." A perfect storm is thus brewing as "CPU suppliers are also deliberately limiting shipments to help increase the rate of inventory consumption... [and] PC demand for processors is lower, and weakening macroeconomic concerns are driving PC OEMs to reduce their inventory as well." Mercury also asserted that the trend is likely to continue through H1 2023. Its thoughts about the underlying inventory shenanigans should also be evidenced by upcoming financials from the major players in the next few months. [...]

McCarron shines a glimmer of light in the wake of this gloom, reminding us that overall processor revenue was still higher in 2022 than any year before the 2020s began. Another ray of light shone on AMD, with its gains in server CPU share, one of the only segments which saw some growth in Q4 2022. Also, AMD gained market share in the shrinking desktop and laptop markets.

This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

PC CPU Shipments See Steepest Decline In 30 Years

Comments Filter:
  • by ffkom ( 3519199 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @08:20PM (#63283559)
    ... these days to upgrade some old systems, and will gladly watch how the lower demand causes some lower priced offerings to come up. If market theory is correct, that is going to happen, right? If it isn't, well, there is still the option to use them old systems a little longer...
    • by Z00L00K ( 682162 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @10:34PM (#63283781) Homepage Journal

      I have been considering an upgrade, but the total price is nasty.
      "Modern" motherboards also have very few slots, which sucks if you want to do some things.

      • I just built a new system to be a small home server, and I got an AMD CPU for about 50% off the regular price. And then a big chunk of the money I saved was taken up by the motherboard, which was about $100 more than I paid for a motherboard last time.
      • "Modern" motherboards also have very few slots, which sucks if you want to do some things.

        How many slots do you need? Most ATX form factor boards have 4-5 PCIe slots. Bear in mind features like sound, networking, and even WiFI/Bluetooth are built into many motherboards, the need for expansion beyond video is usually beyond what average consumers need.

        • by Z00L00K ( 682162 )

          2 or 3 slots on most of the ones I have seen today.
          1 or 2 for graphics card, then I sometimes use oddball old stuff requiring actual classic serial port. Often software to program communication radios.

    • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Saturday February 11, 2023 @05:20AM (#63284227)

      If market theory is correct, that is going to happen, right?

      Your market theory is one sided. It will hold weight if there is a massive supply chain glut that can't be moved. Otherwise the other side of market theory will state that a supply side reduction occurs to prevent the price from dropping to the point of no longer generating profits on units.

      If you're expecting cheap toys because people aren't buying, you're going to be disappointed.

      • by ffkom ( 3519199 )

        If you're expecting cheap toys because people aren't buying, you're going to be disappointed.

        Not as disappointed as those invested into the manufacturers. For me, not having a newer PC is at most a slight inconvenience. For them its the difference between selling something and selling nothing. Selling nothing is a certain way to not make profits.

    • > If market theory is correct, that is going to happen, right?

      Perhaps eventually, in a rational market.

      In the meantime GM can't ship vehicles because they can't get chips made and Intel has idle desktop chip fabs because they demand $2-300 profit per SKU while AMD is happy with $25.

      The beancounters are holding out for the cheapest car chips and the most expensive CPU chips respectively and causing great harm to their companies with that mindset.

      When MBA's get engineering management jobs and bonuses are

  • Not a surprise (Score:5, Insightful)

    by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @08:25PM (#63283565)

    PC tech has not gotten much faster in the last few years and for most applications even systems from 10 years back are sufficient, despite attempts by MS to force people on new hardware. The sorely lacking adoption numbers for Windows 11 are a good indicator for that. We are simply seeing an adjustment from upgrades to mere replacement of broken systems. That is as it should be.

    • You do realise Windows 11 is actually one of the fastest adoption rates for OS upgrades ever. they are already hitting about 20% which is insane for an OS less than 2 years old.
      • by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @09:09PM (#63283669)

        Do you realize that for most it is just a klick to say "yes, I want". And many, many chose "no" or go back. Well, you probably do not realize that at all.

        • And? The same was for Windows 10 and the GP is right. 2 years in Windows 11 has a higher adoption rate than Windows 10 did, and Windows 10 was released on the back of a disaster OS that most of us would like to forget.

          People who are only used to iOS adoption rate numbers are masturbating furiously over Microsoft's "failure", but in reality it is nothing of the sort.

          You think you were making a point with Windows 11, but the reality is most OS updates have been tied to replacement hardware. That's literally h

          • And? The same was for Windows 10 and the GP is right. 2 years in Windows 11 has a higher adoption rate than Windows 10 did, and Windows 10 was released on the back of a disaster OS that most of us would like to forget.

            People who are only used to iOS adoption rate numbers are masturbating furiously over Microsoft's "failure", but in reality it is nothing of the sort.

            You think you were making a point with Windows 11, but the reality is most OS updates have been tied to replacement hardware. That's literally how it's been since Windows 95 came out.

            Not in the Mac world. Nevermind iOS/iPadOS. Here we have 81% adoption of macOS Catalina in those same 2 years.

            https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]

      • Re:Not a surprise (Score:5, Insightful)

        by edwdig ( 47888 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @09:51PM (#63283731)

        Wasn't 10 way faster? It was initially only supposed to be a free upgrade for a limited time, it was a huge improvement over 8, it basically ran fine on any PC that could handle 7 or 8, and it satisfied most people who preferred 7 over 8. All of that combined to make 10 pretty attractive. Yeah, I know they ended up the upgrade to 10 free permanently, but the threat of it expiring helped make people upgrade.

        11 will be a free upgrade indefinitely. Tech oriented people seem to be completely avoiding 11. The UI seems to be a regression over 10. It doesn't work on a lot of PCs that are more than a few years old. 10 won't be EOL any time soon. There's no compelling reason to rush to upgrade now, but there are reasons to wait.

      • You do realise Windows 11 is actually one of the fastest adoption rates for OS upgrades ever. they are already hitting about 20% which is insane for an OS less than 2 years old.

        Any OS Ever?!?

        20% in two years?!?

        Hahahahahahaaa!!!

        Howabout 81% in 2 years?!?

        https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]

        BTW, that was despite the fact that Catalina (macOS 10.15) was the first version of macOS to completely discontinue all support for 32-bit Applications, Drivers, Frameworks, etc..

      • That means nothing. People upgraded because they're used to brainlessly upgrading. What they don't realize before they click that button is that it's the worst GUI update since Windows 8. And again, technical users get screwed the most. It's just a terrible GUI.
    • by Chas ( 5144 )

      That and people looking to dig in on "work from home" or "educational" buys, they MASSIVELY over-bought in terms of power.

      Meaning that they're probably at LEAST a decade from needing another machine (barring high-end gaming).

      This will distort the buying market for at LEAST another 3-5 years.

    • by sjames ( 1099 )

      Also, most people who actually needed an upgrade or had a good case for replacement did so during the pandemic.

    • I gifted my son my first gen i7 machine and with SSD/good graphics card it performs quite well. Bit of a pig on electricity though...
  • and we can play older games forever cause also no one is gonna pay 90-99 for a base game that then needs dlc
    todays lesson in stupid is brought to you by
    microsoft , apple , nvidia, amd, and intel and more....

    • Yeah, the gaming market is hitting a wall. Gaming managed to stay at the 50 (PC) or 60 (consoles) price tag for almost 3 decades. We got very used to that price tag. And until now it was very sustainable.

      Yes, development cost for games went up, but so did sales. And with games, sales almost entirely mean additional profit. There is a very low per-unit cost in software. But the market has reached saturation, while costs exploded. What we saw was 0-day DLCs and other tricks to make games still LOOK like they

  • by Somervillain ( 4719341 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @08:41PM (#63283599)
    So we have scary inflation for a year coupled with scarily uncertain economic indicators causing people to be a little smarter with money...followed by the fact that computers add less and less value each year. I honestly don't know the appeal of upgrading anything less than 5 years old.

    I have a 5yo laptop. My wife has a brand new one. Both are expensive and I can't tell the difference in any app. I haven't bought a computer for a few years. I just looked and I honestly can't tell the difference from the specs..the number of cores and speed looks really similar. If I upgraded today, I can't tell if I would actually notice, even on CPU-intensive games.

    Give us cool and meaningful upgrades...not just slightly faster RAM which we'll never notice...and I bet you'll see a lot more people upgrading.

    So let's turn the question around.

    If someone has a 5-year-old computer, what benefit would they get from upgrading their CPU/RAM/Motherboard? Will webapps work more smoothly? Will they notice a difference in any local app? What about games? I know upgrading the GPU probably makes a difference, but how much faster is a $500 CPU from today vs a $500 CPU from 2018 even on a demanding game?
    • Try MSFS 2020. My rig is not even a year old, and I'm thinking of building another one that can take at least half a terabyte of ram and slots for 4 Arc 770 cards - thou gh by that time my 2 Arc 770 cards will probably be obsolete, replaced by Battlemage 770s. Because that is one sim that can use everything you can throw on in when using a 100" 8k video wall. But boy is the view awesome.

      Read an article of a bios ack someone did to allow a 128gb motherboard to take a full terabyte. I'd settle for 512gb and

      • MSFS thrives on a 5800X3D more than any other cpu.

        As to feeding 8K, it really only needs a RTX 4080. Turn on DLSS upscaling and frame generation
        • MSFS thrives on a 5800X3D more than any other cpu.

          Not quite. It's about on par with an i9-12900k, and an i9-13900k handily beats it.

          Of course from a value perspective.... It's no contest.

          • NOTHING beats the 5800X3d in MSFS if you're flying over photogrammetry cities or using major airports. A 13900K dips to 30fps on MainThread limit while a 5800X3D will hum along at 70fps.
        • I'm boycotting NVidious. And when MSFS starts supporting XeSS, it will really be no contest in terms of price/performance. And everyone in the flightsim forums who has an Arc770LE loves it, even without XeSS.

          As for CPU, it runs fine at 8k on an i5-12400. You gust need LOTS of ram to make up for the CPU. At 128 gb, I'm good. However, for my next build, I'm looking for half a terabyte and a cpu upgrade, and maybe doubling the number of 770LEs to 4. Already figured out the power supply problems - dual Corsai

      • Try MSFS 2020. My rig is not even a year old, and I'm thinking of building another one that can take at least half a terabyte of ram and slots for 4 Arc 770 cards - thou gh by that time my 2 Arc 770 cards will probably be obsolete, replaced by Battlemage 770s. Because that is one sim that can use everything you can throw on in when using a 100" 8k video wall. But boy is the view awesome.

        So an 8k 100" video wall is anything but mainstream. But even then...are there benchmarks that indicate how much faster a CPU at the same price is today vs a year ago for your application?

        I will wager that given a dollar-per-dollar comparison, a $500 CPU today is 20% faster than a $500 CPU from 2018. Given that you'd have to upgrade your RAM and motherboard, it's a 1k investment if your drives and PSU are still good. 1k for 20% boost is just not compelling.

        Like most consumers, I'll buy when I need

        • Let's try some apples-to-apples comparisons. Some games have implemented XeSS and they kick ass.

          And you can bet if the performance on an 8k 100" video wall is sweet, it's gonna be even better at 4k - and definitely a lot better than all those gamers running at 1440 or 1080.

          Seriously, if you're going to spend money gaming, at least get something decent.

        • Also, I'm looking for a motherboard that can take at least 256 gb for my next build, probably next year, because 128 gb it's starting to get a bit memory-constrained, and I'd also like to stick a 3rd card in for 2 50" 4k screens in portrait mode that I'm adding for another project anyway, and I can consign this machine to being a plug-n-go backup machine and local backup computer. 256 gb of DDR5 is starting to look like a reasonable price/performance option.
    • If you aren't using your system for playing new games, what do you need an upgrade for? I'm running Linux on ten year old hardware and it still plays all the games I want to play. I'll upgrade when something breaks because otherwise, what kill app is there?

      It's not like Linux is just going to turn around and not work on my hardware for no real reason at all. That's for Windows users.

  • We are at a stage where you can be 3, 4 or even more generations off the current gen and still have no noticeable difference in gaming let alone average usage that most people do. This is a great situation for consumers, not so great for the chip makers as they have killed their own market by making chips powerful enough to last many years of usage now.
    • You can get by with old chips. I'd hardly say there's no noticeable difference. UE5 and AMD's "X3D" chips are offering some seriously huge leaps in performance right now. We're getting really close to being unable to distinguish a realtime rendered video from a live action video. Couple that with VR and ChatGPT and we're going to have VR holodecks within a decade.
  • by aergern ( 127031 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @08:51PM (#63283629)

    When GPU prices are 2.5x MSRP even on cards that are a year old, why would I want to upgrade my motherboard and CPU to have the bottleneck be the 4 year old card I already have.

    They jacked up prices the last 2 years and when demand came down they still want the same outrageous prices. And they wonder why no one is buying. I'm not paying $2500 for a card that they told us had an MSRP of $800. They can go F themselves.

    • Funny thing, but everyone complaining about the Intel Arc 770LE performance don't actually own one. They're super value for the price. Buy 2, and you save enough money to buy an i9-13900 and 128 gb of ram. Screw AMD and NVidious.
    • What $800 card costs $2500? You can get a MSRP $999 7900 xtx for around $1100 if you shop around.

    • Also there MSRP $1099 6950XT is now $699.

    • When GPU prices are 2.5x MSRP

      When are GPU prices 2.5x MSRP? You are repeating a stale talking about from this time last year that isn't at all relevant right now. The past quarter GPUs have been sold at MSRP or below and yet we've seen a decline.

      Whatever point you were making is wrong, try and find another reason.

  • Too many hoops (Score:4, Interesting)

    by RitchCraft ( 6454710 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @08:57PM (#63283641)
    yes, yes, Inflated prices, inventory shorting, artificial upgrade barriers, minute increases in performance, and other shenanigans by manufactures have caused a lot of this. But the purchasing experience needs to be addressed too. I was recently asked by a friend to build a new system for him. I've been building his systems since the early 2000's and about every 5 to 6 years he wants a new system. Trying to find parts at a reasonable price, in stock, and not from a third party seller is tiresome. I've already given up on trying to purchase anything on Amazon (what a load of garbage that company has become). When searching on Newegg I had to make sure shipped from and sold by Newegg are always checked. Even then, I needed to make sure it wasn't some third party company from China sneaking by. Purchasing computer parts was easy (and arguably fun) years ago. Today, not so much. Since CPUs really haven't progressed that much over the years I've been telling people if they have a 4th gen or above CPU simply upgrade the system with an SSD and more RAM and you should be fine. This has the added bonus of avoiding Windows 11 too. Oh, and one other thing that's annoying, why do so many freakin' components now had RGB lighting built in? Disco died in the 70's people.
    • Re:Too many hoops (Score:4, Interesting)

      by dmomo ( 256005 ) on Saturday February 11, 2023 @12:37AM (#63283969)

      I started down the path of specing out a new PC and ran into all of the disincentives you mentioned above. The general PC component marketplace is a cesspool. But, even after sourcing reputable parts, I find the cases themselves lacking. Front bays for blue-ray drives, audio inputs, and USB connectors? Forget it.. it's Disco lights for you, son.

      • I finally found a case without the stupid lights and at least had one drive bay for a DVD drive (Antec Performance Series P7 Neo Newegg Item#: N82E16811129274). Also, as you pointed out, very few front USB ports.
      • There are plenty of cases that do not have lights but have audio and USB connectors. Cases with front bays for bluray or any optical drives are rare.
  • McCarron shines a glimmer of light in the wake of this gloom, reminding us that overall processor revenue was still higher in 2022 than any year before the 2020s began.

    Truly it's the end of everything, and no one could have ever predicted after much of the developed world decided to upgrade their home equipment in the last two years due to a global pandemic!

    More disaster!: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a... [wsj.com]

  • by Waccoon ( 1186667 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @09:13PM (#63283679)

    I haven't bought any upgrades in a while, because every time I buy something new... things break.

    Before "product activation" became a thing with XP, I used to upgrade my PC every 6 months whether it needed it or not. After XP, there were two occasions when I replace some hardware and I had to call Microsoft on the phone, begging to use my PC again. Since then, I realized I didn't need to upgrade my PC so often, and I only really change hardware when something dies. I think the only thing I've bought in the last decade are a slew of larger SSDs.

    If it were worth buying new hardware, both in terms of a performance upgrade and reliability, I'd do it. I'm not going to spend real money on minor tweaks and a lecture about how certain features are "not supported". No kidding CPU sales are the slowest in 30 years. This is a different market than back in the 1990's. Upgrading isn't fun anymore. It's a chore.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Just set up a KMS server emulator on a rpi somewhere in your house, an rpi zero will even work.

      Now all Microsoft product activation is free and they’ll let you download software off their website. It’s actually a really good system and probably the best relationship I’ve had with microsoft in years.

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Where do you buy a powerful desktop computing machine that isn't x86? I have seen a mini itx risc-v board but I don't think it was intended for everyday desktop use in addition to being overpriced and out of stock
    • by vbdasc ( 146051 )

      April 1st, 1970

      Datapoint 2200 is June 1970, Intel 8008 is April 1972. Earliest precursors/implementations of x86 have nothing to do with April 1st, 1970, as you see.

  • by mveloso ( 325617 ) on Friday February 10, 2023 @09:37PM (#63283713)

    Consumers have migrated to mobile and/or tablets, and don't need a PC/laptop anymore.

    Businesses have also realized that an i5 is just fine, and lasts for years. In fact, the only thing moving CPUs now is going to be Windows EOL'ing hardware platforms.

    • Young consumers don't even use PC's, or laptops. Everything is on their phones or tablets.
      • Actually they're more likely to use a phone for personal stuff and a lappie for work/school. Tablets are kind of passe now.

  • The PC industry is in good shape. Tons of CPUs were sold over the past 2-3 years, a lot due to Covid and with every peak comes a valley. This is totally normal, as with any industry. The real reality is that they (hopefully) took the gains of the last few years and are using it to both prop up the current slow years and develop the next advancement. Nothing to see here. Move on
  • Not so long ago - a few years back - the large corporate entity I work for did laptop replacements every 3 years.
    It was just a standard procedure - and I'm sure they had a preferred supplier(s) and a contract signed to that end.
    Now it's every 5 years. This corporate has over 70,000 staff.

    I can't prove it, I doubt I could find any evidence to support it, but it seems highly likely they aren't alone in extending the "lifetime" of hardware issued to employees.
    They also keep some of those older laptops in stora

  • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Saturday February 11, 2023 @04:49AM (#63284185)

    I can plug my phone into the docking station made for my laptop. That way, I can take the screen of my phone to a real screen, use a real keyboard and mouse to access everything and practically work that way. Now add a few office applications to the whole thing and I have to wonder: What exactly do I need a computer for?

    The speed is about on par of a computer of roughly 10 years ago. Which is plenty for office work, unless you're working with graphically challenging applications or if you need a lot of processing power to crunch numbers. For that, I'd SSH/RDP into a relevant server and use its power instead.

    Offices will move towards cellphone-based computing in the near future. Especially now with WFH being more and more adopted, having your "computer" in your pocket 24/7 will be considered an asset by companies, not only are you reachable 24/7 but you have all your documents and information with you 24/7 as well. They will like that. Employees will enjoy not having to lug about their laptops, they just plug out their phone at work, take it home in their pocket, plug it into their home office setup and continue exactly as they did in office.

    • I can plug my phone into the docking station made for my laptop.

      Meh. We've had this thick/thin client debate since the 80s at least. Basically what happens is that thin clients are all the rage until computing power gets so cheap that you can just throw another CPU in the screen anyway (I mean, this is basically what's happened to TVs already) and then it's just easier to do it that way rather than having to plug your phone in.

      • The thick/thin client processing power debate is moot. Phones do have enough processing power for nearly all applications you'd want to run in an office environment.

        • Phones do have enough processing power for nearly all applications you'd want to run in an office environment.

          True. However, having enough processing power is not sufficient. The application also has to fit the restrictions of a major phone operating system's platform security model. Software development, for example, tends to be one of the things that phone operating systems tend to deter as a side effect of deterring malware.

  • It's funny how these reports only look at deltas, narrowly. The pandemic and the lockdowns created a hugely unnatural growth in the PC market, with the work from home and all. Now that the lockdowns are over, people don't buy computers as a matter of emergency anymore, so obviously we go back to the trends before the pandemic. The demand goes abruptly back where it was, and the natural trend will resume, i.e. the years long slow decline of the market.

  • Many people bough computers for home-offices during Covid, and those computer aren't yet 3 years old. Most people, most companies don't buy a new computer every year, nor do they buy technology that's no better that what they already have. If everyone buys at once, everyone passes at once, for a period of time.

    On the gaming/workstation side, in spite of the RTX 4090's popularity for a high-end card, most video cards are still too expensive. Their prices still haven't settled to the inflation-adjusted leve
  • With so many people disliking Windows 11, perhaps also, they want to keep their older Windows 10 systems.
  • Now maybe they'll be able to make that new car I ordered 18 months ago.
  • This was to be somewhat expected. During the pandemic everybody started working from home so they upgraded their systems. Now, everybody has new computers so they're a few years from needing another upgrade. Not only that, but the used/refurb market is fairly well stocked with their old systems.

    The second part is inflation. Wages trail prices which means the average consumer has less discretionary spending power. Computer upgrades are one of those discretionary items that can be postponed, meaning yet anoth

  • PC sales have been on a slow decline for quite a few years. Then we got a pandemic-fueled surge in demand as people set up for work-at-home, and as schools bought large quantities of Chromebooks and other systems for at-home learning.

    As the world reopens from the pandemic, we have simply returned to the ongoing trend; PC sales are gradually falling off because of a shift to mobile devices and because people are keeping them longer than they did in the past. But it looks like a huge drop because of the incre

Every nonzero finite dimensional inner product space has an orthonormal basis. It makes sense, when you don't think about it.

Working...