As America Funds Domestic Chip-Making, Some Questions Remain (msn.com) 40
There's been "an enormous ramp-up in U.S. chip-making plans" over the last 18 months, reports the New York Times. For example:
- In September Intel pledged $20 billion for two chip factories in Ohio
- Micron expects to spend at least that amount on a new manufacturing site in Syracuse, New York.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company plans to invest $40 billion in Phoenix.
"The boom has implications for global technological leadership and geopolitics, with the United States aiming to prevent China from becoming an advanced power in chips..." Across the U.S., more than 35 companies have pledged nearly $200 billion for manufacturing projects related to chips since the spring of 2020, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association, a trade group. The money is set to be spent in 16 states, including Texas, Arizona and New York on 23 new chip factories, the expansion of nine plants, and investments from companies supplying equipment and materials to the industry. The push is one facet of an industrial policy initiative by the Biden administration, which is dangling at least $76 billion in grants, tax credits and other subsidies to encourage domestic chip production....
The new U.S. production efforts may correct some of these imbalances, industry executives said — but only up to a point. The new chip factories would take years to build and might not be able to offer the industry's most advanced manufacturing technology when they begin operations. Companies could also delay or cancel the projects if they aren't awarded sufficient subsidies by the White House. And a severe shortage in skills may undercut the boom, as the complex factories need many more engineers than the number of students who are graduating from U.S. colleges and universities....
A $50 billion government investment is likely to prompt corporate spending that would take the U.S. share of global production to as much as 14 percent by 2030, according to a Boston Consulting Group study in 2020 that was commissioned by the Semiconductor Industry Association. "It really does put us in the game for the first time in decades," said John Neuffer, the association's president, who added that the estimate may be conservative because Congress approved $76 billion in subsidies in a piece of legislation known as the CHIPS Act.
The article also cites predictions of 40,000 new jobs (made by the Semiconductor Industry Association) in exploring the possibility of a U.S. "talent shortage."
"Intel, responding to the issue, plans to invest $100 million to spur training and research at universities, community colleges and other technical educators."
- In September Intel pledged $20 billion for two chip factories in Ohio
- Micron expects to spend at least that amount on a new manufacturing site in Syracuse, New York.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company plans to invest $40 billion in Phoenix.
"The boom has implications for global technological leadership and geopolitics, with the United States aiming to prevent China from becoming an advanced power in chips..." Across the U.S., more than 35 companies have pledged nearly $200 billion for manufacturing projects related to chips since the spring of 2020, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association, a trade group. The money is set to be spent in 16 states, including Texas, Arizona and New York on 23 new chip factories, the expansion of nine plants, and investments from companies supplying equipment and materials to the industry. The push is one facet of an industrial policy initiative by the Biden administration, which is dangling at least $76 billion in grants, tax credits and other subsidies to encourage domestic chip production....
The new U.S. production efforts may correct some of these imbalances, industry executives said — but only up to a point. The new chip factories would take years to build and might not be able to offer the industry's most advanced manufacturing technology when they begin operations. Companies could also delay or cancel the projects if they aren't awarded sufficient subsidies by the White House. And a severe shortage in skills may undercut the boom, as the complex factories need many more engineers than the number of students who are graduating from U.S. colleges and universities....
A $50 billion government investment is likely to prompt corporate spending that would take the U.S. share of global production to as much as 14 percent by 2030, according to a Boston Consulting Group study in 2020 that was commissioned by the Semiconductor Industry Association. "It really does put us in the game for the first time in decades," said John Neuffer, the association's president, who added that the estimate may be conservative because Congress approved $76 billion in subsidies in a piece of legislation known as the CHIPS Act.
The article also cites predictions of 40,000 new jobs (made by the Semiconductor Industry Association) in exploring the possibility of a U.S. "talent shortage."
"Intel, responding to the issue, plans to invest $100 million to spur training and research at universities, community colleges and other technical educators."
Europe should be wondering... (Score:5, Insightful)
If they can rely on the US for chips, and if they shouldn't be demanding for plants to be built in Europe.
Re: Europe should be wondering... (Score:2)
Re: Europe should be wondering... (Score:5, Informative)
You'd be surprised how much EU tech and knowledge is present in TSMCs most advanced fabs.
ASML in the Netherlands makes all of the photolithography steppers used by TSMC for sub-10 nm processes.
ASML is the only company in the world making EUV equipment.
ASML doesn't ship EUV equipment to China, so China will need to develop its own EUV tech, which will take at least a decade.
Re: Europe should be wondering... (Score:5, Informative)
ASML doesn't ship EUV equipment to China, so China will need to develop its own EUV tech, which will take at least a decade.
Typically rather than take the time to develop a technology themselves, the Chinese find it much faster to just steal it [datacenterdynamics.com]. So I wouldn't wager too much money it taking "at least a decade".
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ASML doesn't ship EUV equipment to China, so China will need to develop its own EUV tech, which will take at least a decade.
Typically rather than take the time to develop a technology themselves, the Chinese find it much faster to just steal it [datacenterdynamics.com]. So I wouldn't wager too much money it taking "at least a decade".
This is the entire reason why a block of high-tech countries (USA, Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, etc) have slapped China with a technological blockade. It makes tech transfer and IP theft almost impossible to occur. IP theft doesn't occur with a Tom Cruise character dropping to a fab lab to steal corporate secrets. It occurs during tech transfers and corporate collaboration.
China has been put in a very bad spot, technology wise.
Re: Europe should be wondering... (Score:1)
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Who, other than ASML, makes EUV photolithography equipment? Not individual components, but actual complete steppers that allow you to make working chips at single-digit-nm resolution?
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ASML in the Netherlands makes all of the photolithography steppers used by TSMC for sub-10 nm processes.
ASML is the only company in the world making EUV equipment.
ASML doesn't ship EUV equipment to China, so China will need to develop its own EUV tech, which will take at least a decade.
If ASML were an American company, they would move production to China, executives would get 7-figure bonuses that year, and well, you can guess the rest
Re: Europe should be wondering... (Score:2)
The law wouldn't even allow that in the US. Nor do I think China is presently capable of manufacturing such a thing. Most of the work they do is assembly, not fabrication.
Also, back in the day, the reason you manufactured in China was because they were cheap, but currently you only manufacture there if they have a comparative advantage of manufacturing whatever it is you make. It seems unlikely that would apply in this case.
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You forgot to mention that all the optics in their EUV systems are made by Zeiss in Germany. One of the key improvements in EUV systems relates to optical efficiency (numerical aperture). This could take years for another manufacture to replicate.
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You'd be surprised how much EU tech and knowledge is present in TSMCs most advanced fabs.
ASML in the Netherlands makes all of the photolithography steppers used by TSMC for sub-10 nm processes.
ASML is the only company in the world making EUV equipment.
ASML doesn't ship EUV equipment to China, so China will need to develop its own EUV tech, which will take at least a decade.
It took China a decade to develop the fine-tune metallurgy to manufacture their own ballpoint pens. China has a lot of bright people, but technological advancement is a function of more than that.
Nah, China in the aggregate is not even close to be at a place where it would take it a decade to develop EUV tech.
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The EU has strong anti-subsidy laws which makes this difficult. There was recently a demand for a quick trade deal with the US so such subsidies could apply to EU firms in the US and US firms in the EU.
I presume the US said no. As it's not an urgent priority, the EU is slow at making such decisions and I wouldn't expect unilateral legislation until the end of the year at the earliest.
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Why does it need to be a binary option?
Globalization is a good thing, however it just can't run without controls and rules, and competition.
The problem with the last 30 years or so, was the big shift to outsourcing as part of the Globalization effort. Where we got to a point where a country would produce nearly all of the worlds supply of a product, because they happen to do it cheaper than the rest. Where a managed set of globalization is more of a way to help manage and stabilize production output and
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If they can rely on the US for chips, and if they shouldn't be demanding for plants to be built in Europe.
Do you realize how much chip-related tech is based in the EU? I mean, c'mon.
Moreover, not a single chip-manufacturing country does everything vertically. Chip manufacturing is highly distributed among tech players (USA, Netherlands, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, to name a few.)
ASML, for instance, it's in the Netherlands, and they are kingmakers when it comes to lithography tech. Any country that wishes to create the latest semiconductor stuff depends on their products.
Sometimes I get the impression t
Coming glut (Score:1)
All this spending was a knee-jerk reaction to the Covid supply shortages.
When all these fabs come online, there will likely be a massive capacity glut and rock-bottom prices.
Once again, the taxpayers will be stuck with the bill.
Always the "taxpayers" s***t (Score:2)
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Intel is struggling to remain relevant on the fab side. The CHIPS act is going to help their foundries stay alive a bit longer, at least until they can spin them off ala Globalfoundries.
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Intel is struggling to remain relevant on the fab side. The CHIPS act is going to help their foundries stay alive a bit longer, at least until they can spin them off ala Globalfoundries.
They are, but at this point I'd wager everyone is. Only Intel, Samsung and TSMC are at the leading edge, with TSMC being a bit ahead and also very much so on the fab for hire side (Samsung is apparently a pain, Intel don't do that yet).
They're behind but not super far behind. If TSMC stumble, Intel will likely overtake, thou
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Intel is no longer at the leading edge. They pretend that they're going to get back on track by 2025, but they're still struggling. Intel 4 is still a huge question mark.
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Intel is no longer at the leading edge.
But they're not far behind. They can match TSMC on transistor density, but not yield, so they can't ship in useful volumes at that density. But it's easier to go from 30 to 60% yield than from 80 to 160% (obviously), so if TSMC fail to hit their own timelines, they could swap places.
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No they can't. TSMC has higher transistor density on N5 than Intel has on 10ESF which is the latest node they've actually brought to market. Meteor Lake, their first actual commercial product on Intel 4, is looking like a limited Q4 2023 release with zero desktop volume. They're launching yet another 10nm product in 2023 - Raptor Lake refresh - to fill in that gap.
Meanwhile TSMC has N4 and N4P already on the market and a delayed N3/N3B entering volume production soon.
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TSMC has higher transistor density on N5 than Intel has on 10ESF which is the latest node they've actually brought to market
Because the yields are too low, like I said.
TSMC's N5 is better, by about 20% or so density wise.
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Yields have nothing to do with transistor density of a given node. If you're implying that yields are the reason why Intel 4 isn't on the market, then duh. Yields are also why n3 isn't on the market (though it will be soon). At this time whatever problems still exist with Intel 4 are keeping it off the market such that it may as well not exist.
Plus density of n4p is likely better than Intel 4 anyway. Nobody knows for sure since independent verification of logic density for Intel 4 doesn't exist. Unless
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Yes that's what I'm saying. I don't know why you think I'm implying it, I though I was pretty dirty about it.
Intel can Fab competitive chips but not at competitive yields. They are behind, but not excessively so at the moment. I would count them out just yet. Given the numbers being bandied around I don't see why the two 4nm processes would differ significantly.density wise.
Re:Coming glut (Score:4, Insightful)
The goal is to prevent the supply chain from being consolidated in China. Without being able to build chips there, manufacturers will be incentivized to build out of the country. At least, that's what some people hope.
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"Some Questions Remain" (Score:2)
it's just corporate welfare to the usual suspects (Score:2)
Whereas "Talent Shortage" Equals No Cheap Labor (Score:2)
So the advice should be "don't do it"? (Score:1)
No.
If the US is going to climb out of the technological hole it's in now, it needs to start somewhere.
That means ACTUALLY STARTING.
Simply throwing your hands up and deciding not to do it because it's "HHHHARRRRD" simply insures that we become serfs in the industries we founded and then gave away.
The best way to fall behind (Score:2)
ALL of the money the US is devoting to chip development will be instantly deposited in billionaires bank accounts. Without milestones and strict accountability, and slowly paying out funds as
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As I remember, they shut down all of Beijing for the entire time that the Olympics were happening plus some time beforehand. The only reason that didn't put a severe dent into their economy is because the communist government subsidized everything.
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