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The Battle Over Chips is About to Get Uglier (yahoo.com) 74

Posted by EditorDavid from the in-the-chips dept.
"We're in a new world where governments are more concerned about the security of their digital infrastructure and the resiliency of their supply chains," Jimmy Goodrich, vice president of global policy with the Washington-based Semiconductor Industry Association, tells Bloomberg.

"The techno-nationalist trends gaining traction in multiple capitals around the world are a challenge to the semiconductor industry." At once highly globalized and yet concentrated in the hands of a few countries, the industry has choke points that the U.S. under the presidency of Donald Trump has sought to exploit in order to thwart China's plans to become a world leader in chip production. Washington says Beijing can only achieve that goal through state subvention [funding] at the expense of U.S. industry, while furthering Communist Party access to high-tech tools for surveillance and repression. China rejects the allegations, accusing the U.S. of hypocrisy and acting out of political motivation. For both sides, Taiwan, which is responsible for some 70% of chips manufactured to order, is the new front line...

Citing the need to promote "digital sovereignty," the European Commission is exploring a 30 billion-euro ($35 billion) drive to raise Europe's share of the world chip market to 20%, from less than 10% now. Japan is also looking to bolster its domestic capacity. At least one Japanese delegation traveled to Taiwan in May and June this year in the hope of convincing TSMC to invest in Japan, a person with knowledge of the visit said. But TSMC announced in May that it was building a $12 billion facility in Arizona, and the company declined to receive any foreign visitors seeking to woo it, said another person familiar with the company's thinking....

A focus of Beijing is to accelerate research into so-called third-generation semiconductors — circuits made of materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride, a fledgling technology where no country dominates. Yet without silicon capabilities it will be difficult for China to build a proper semiconductor industry, said a senior TSMC official. Another person from a company involved in third-generation chip production said designing them is an art, and even poaching a team of designers won't necessarily guarantee success. The consensus is it won't be easy for China to catch up, especially at the cutting-edge where TSMC and Samsung are producing chips whose circuits are measured in single-digit nanometers, or billionths of a meter. SMIC [a partially state-owned Chinese semiconductor foundry] would have to double annual research spending in the next two-to-three years just to prevent its technology gap with those companies widening, says Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Charles Shum.

The tussle raises the prospect of a broader decoupling of the global industry with two distinct supply chains.
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The Battle Over Chips is About to Get Uglier More

The Battle Over Chips is About to Get Uglier

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  • Will the US ever catch up with the Republic of China?

    • Re:Catch me, I'm right behind you (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Pinky's Brain ( 1158667 ) on Sunday October 25, 2020 @06:51AM (#60645854)

      The US has a pretty good chance of plain catching Taiwan, instead of catching up. Taiwan can become a vassal of the US, or it can be slowly isolated by China until surrender is the only option. Given the Arizona plant, they seem to be leaning towards vassal of the US.

      Of course China will threaten nukes if the US creates a formal defence pact with Taiwan, but TSMC might be important enough to risk it ... the US should have never let the situation fester this long. Nixon and Kissinger fucked up royally.

      • Re:Catch me, I'm right behind you (Score:4, Informative)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Sunday October 25, 2020 @08:04AM (#60645946) Homepage Journal

        China has been recruiting TSMC talent lately. Very attractive packages to come and help them develop their domestic fabs.

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • The Republic of China, or the People's Republic of China?

      • China is neighther a republic nor a people's republic. It is a violent, murderous, genocidal totalitarian regime.

        • Re: (Score:3)

          by nagora ( 177841 )

          China is neighther a republic nor a people's republic. It is a violent, murderous, genocidal totalitarian regime.

          The Republic of China is the official name of the country that we are normally told is called "Taiwan".

          Guess who insists that we call it "Taiwan"?

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by dj245 ( 732906 )

            China is neighther a republic nor a people's republic. It is a violent, murderous, genocidal totalitarian regime.

            The Republic of China is the official name of the country that we are normally told is called "Taiwan".

            Guess who insists that we call it "Taiwan"?

            The USA, to make the distinction that it is independent from China?

            China applies political pressure to call the country "Chinese Taipei" in many international forums. I imagine that is what they prefer.

        • You are misunderstanding the question, RoC and PRC are two different countries.

          • Re: (Score:1)

            by ebvwfbw ( 864834 )

            You are misunderstanding the question, RoC and PRC are two different countries.

            Maybe you know something I don't? I thought the RoC ceased to exist in 1949. Any reference to RoC would refer to what most people consider China.

            BTW, I'm surprised they didn't simply ask BHO for Taiwan when he was over there. I'm sure he would have said - go ahead and take it. He pulled back every carrier we had prior to his leaving office. December and even January was a prime time for them to simply say - It's ours. I knew someone at the time that was born in Taiwan. Her family was very concerned it would

      • The Judean People's Front!
    • This war will only distort investment decisions. Now that capital is cheap, more will be in on the game. Taiwan won that game, because it had customer certainty as well as being most efficient and hide yield numbers from the USA. With scanning tunneling microscopes it is easy to see what is - not where it needs to be in 2 years time. Taiwan is building in the US,like Foxconn because it knows it needs to hedge its bets. China decided it will not hedge. Interesting times. But if USA goes nutty with 3rd party

    • Wrong perspective. The US doesn't need to catch up to the RoC, when the US can do something better: protect it.

      TSMC can also open fabs in the US (or buy some from Intel once their foundry business becomes moribund) for geopolitical diversification.

  • Disappointing news (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Joe2020 ( 6760092 )

    I came here to read about fried potatoes and instead do I get to read about Trump again. Out of curiosity do I need to ask, what did Mr. Trump ever do that didn't turn ugly at some point? About anything the man has touched turned ugly, didn't it?

    • I came here to see the Sinophobes take their token pot shots. But you're right, Trump is cancer on aids. Election Day will drag on for months in the courts, the stocks will enter a slow burn due to the uncertainty and his RWNJs will run rampant online and IRL. The only thing that can save America is a turn-out above 65% and that hasn't happened in decades. It will come down to the number of voters deleted from the rolls, the number of postal votes that don't get opened and the number that stay in their queu

      • Re: (Score:1, Troll)

        by nagora ( 177841 )

        I came here to see the Sinophobes take their token pot shots. But you're right, Trump is cancer on aids. Election Day will drag on for months in the courts, the stocks will enter a slow burn due to the uncertainty and his RWNJs will run rampant online and IRL. The only thing that can save America is a turn-out above 65% and that hasn't happened in decades. It will come down to the number of voters deleted from the rolls, the number of postal votes that don't get opened and the number that stay in their queue on the day.

        No, it will come down to the moronic Electoral College system which routinely throws millions of votes in the bin because the states don't represent the way their voters voted.

        Hanging chads, a few hundred denied from the rolls, some postal fraud. None of that - ALL of that added up - doesn't come close to distorting the result the way the college system does. That other stuff is a distraction from reforming one of the fundamental problems with the US voting process.

        • The Electoral College exists to stop people like you.

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by nagora ( 177841 )

            The Electoral College exists to stop people like you.

            People who get more votes than their opponent?

          • The EC system exists for SLAVE holders. duh!
            It all came down to compromises to get states to join up at the time.

            Until 1 person = 1 vote you don't have equality. 90% were rural back then and now 90% are concentrated in cities and that trend continues.

        • This is the United States of America, not the People's Republic of America. The Electoral College is a weighted vote of the states, as befits the sort of country this is. It also involves the workings of separation of powers, inhibiting the takeover of government by poorly thought out political fads.

    • Kettle brand is good. I find they have the best salt & vinegar, and it's surprisingly low in sodium, especially considering they have the salty taste plants crave. Only 6% DV sodium per ounce, and 6% DV potassium. Likely it's due to using good sea salt. (Not all sea salt is created equal).

      If S&V isn't your thing, pretty much every flavor they have is good. Personal favorites for me include the dill and jalapeno. I don't know what the hell they do to those potatoes, but it's perfect. Lay's brought ou

  • Next time (Score:4, Informative)

    by ZombieCatInABox ( 5665338 ) on Sunday October 25, 2020 @07:42AM (#60645908)

    Next time, don't put your country's entire manufacturing buziness into to hands of a cruel, murderous dictatorship.

  • Isn't it possible that both are correct? (Score:5, Informative)

    by CrankyOldEngineer ( 3853953 ) on Sunday October 25, 2020 @07:53AM (#60645924)

    Yes, Trump is a moron. And yes, PRC is a murderous regime that uses its mercantilist trade policy and slave labor to exert influence all over the globe. It's not sinophobia to want to insulate ourselves from this. The more products we're dependent on China for, the worse off we'll be. Didn't we learn anything from the PPE and pharmaceutical shortage? That's only the tip of the iceberg.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by ebvwfbw ( 864834 )

      Yes, Trump is a moron. And yes, PRC is a murderous regime that uses its mercantilist trade policy and slave labor to exert influence all over the globe. It's not sinophobia to want to insulate ourselves from this. The more products we're dependent on China for, the worse off we'll be. Didn't we learn anything from the PPE and pharmaceutical shortage? That's only the tip of the iceberg.

      You should recognize that Trump isn't a moron and he has helped make America great again. He's brought back a lot of jobs and I've seen it. It's incredible. There is a moron running for President, his name is Joe Biden. I remember before Obama he used to be knocked out of the primaries in the first round, because he IS a moron. Besides, he's a stand in for Harris. I think we all know that. Probably from day one.

  • There should never be only one supply chain. Doesn't matter what the product is.

    • Well, now it is more about entities in the chain from being under the control of the same government. Not sure I put that quite correctly but you get the point, I hope.

    • But who is going to use the second supply chain when it's so much more expensive than the first?

  • For both sides, Taiwan, which is responsible for some 70% of chips manufactured to order, is the new front line...

    The fabless might be about to get fucked. Design operations that can't actually produce silicon might be in trouble.

  • It's about area control.
    After US $ tanks (soon), they'll need to run the whole area Israel style - as an open prison.
    EU has been methodically prepared to serve as Agenda's new "home".
    It has been carpet bombed with state of the art surveillance that make Elon's Neuralink look like a toy:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/consp... [reddit.com]
    https://www.reddit.com/r/consp... [reddit.com]
    Starlink and 5G are coming in soon:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/consp... [reddit.com]

  • Real soon, after USD hits the ground, new digital bullshit currency is to be announced.
    But in order to keep people from using their own choice, they need to control the equipment, so that their Crypto Shekel has no competition:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/consp... [reddit.com]

    This is all part of The Great Reset they keep talking about:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/consp... [reddit.com]

  • I thought the smooth vs ruffled battle ended long ago. There are only two, maybe three, companies which make ruffled chips any more.

    People have made their choice. They want smooth chips.

    *whisper* *whisper* *whisper*

    Oh. Those chips. Never mind.

  • Great place to set up a chip fab, if you never, ever want to run out of silicon to refine. Of course the shortage of fresh water might become an issue as the fights over the water rights of the Colorado river become more intense.

    • Intel has multiple fabs in Arizona. Unfortunately Intel is falling way behind overseas competitors.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

        Believe me, Intel is paying attention to the water rights fights, and putting in their two cents worth when they can. Desalination will solve the problem -- whenever there is the surplus power to run it, which probably means fusion. The trick is to not get caught in a bind between now and that eventual future.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by hoofie ( 201045 )

      China already has water problems - demand is outstripping their resources.

  • The PRC has been modernizing at the expense of the West by holding production hostage since they figured out that you can bribe politicians in the West to have Western taxpayers subsidize explotation of Chinese labor. Since all corporations in the PRC are considered extensions of the CCP anytime a design is of interest to them or the PLA their interests are satisfied or your workers go on strike or your plant burns down.

  • I think it quite possible that Chinese industries could become significant or even dominant in semiconductor manufacture. The pattern for many years is for China to aggressively fund industries to support its economy, and this is steadily encroaching on areas such as design and development.

    One example of this, that I have been observing for some time, is the plastic molding business. At one time, mold tools were designed and made in the UK, and shipped to China, to take advantage of cheap labour there for m

  • Forget about the chips, I want to know the real chip battle:  Guacamole, salsa, or heated queso dip?

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