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Power Science

Study Shows Renewables Are Kicking Natural Gas To the Curb (cleantechnica.com) 267

An anonymous reader quotes a report from CleanTechnica: After analyzing the most recent data from two of America's largest electricity markets -- ERCOT in Texas and PJM in the Northeast -- the Rocky Mountain Institute has come to a startling conclusion. Renewables are muscling in on natural gas as the preferred choice for new electricity generation. In fact, according to RMI, what happened to coal is now happening to gas. What is needed, the organization argues, is a move away from the monopoly markets that have been the norm in the utility industry for more than 100 years and toward more open competition. Because when renewables compete head to head with thermal generation, they win hands down 95% of the time.

The data doesn't lie. RMI looked at the interconnection queues for both ERCOT and PJM and found over the past two years there has been a dramatic shift away from building new gas fired generating plants and toward more renewable energy projects. Interconnection queues track new generation projects proposed to be added to regional grid. That information provides a leading indicator of market trends for new power plants. Not all projects in these queues are ultimately built, but the mix of resources in the queue represents the investments the market is prioritizing, according to RMI. [...] RMI finds that since 2018, the queue for clean energy projects has more than doubled while the queue for gas projects has been cut in half. In all, more than $30 billion worth of gas projects have been canceled or abandoned. Currently, the capacity of wind, solar, and storage projects slated for construction in ERCOT and PJM is ten times greater than for new gas projects.
"Though COVID-19 may be contributing to some recent decline in planned gas additions, it's not the only driver," says RMI. "The trend has been building for years and investors more broadly are now waking up to the implications. For example, just five years ago in ERCOT, the interconnection queue contained an even split between proposed gas and renewables generation capacity. However, gas capacity in the queue started falling steadily in 2015, well before the COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic downturn. Meanwhile, renewable energy and storage projects in the queue have continued to grow even during the pandemic."

"Therefore, it is likely that a more fundamental driver is at play -- raw economics, driven by the continually falling costs of clean energy and the associated risks of investment in new gas-fired capacity."
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Study Shows Renewables Are Kicking Natural Gas To the Curb

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  • What? (Score:5, Informative)

    by BrainJunkie ( 6219718 ) on Monday October 05, 2020 @10:46PM (#60576168)

    The data doesn't lie.

    Surely you mean The data don't lie?

  • Enh. (Score:2, Interesting)

    by roc97007 ( 608802 )

    I have solar panels in my back yard, to power a detached workshop that I couldn't run power to. (The only path ran perpendicular to a water pipe, and local rules prevented crossing it.) It works ok. I'm familiar with the technology and know how to manage it.

    So I sought to take advantage of the local power company's offer of government subsidized solar power. The tech came out to the place, surveyed it, and said I didn't qualify.

    I'd have to chop down... lessee... one, two, three... six mature trees on my

    • Besides the trees provided shade, which reduced the aircon costs in the summer.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by Maxo-Texas ( 864189 )

        Trees are okay... until they destroy your house in a storm. Happened to my neighbor 10 years ago and just a barely avoided it at my house 7 years ago- $12,000 tho + ripped out my electricity which had to be put back in up to code ($3600).

        Healthy trees too. Just a worse than average storm after rain softened the ground. And it can kill people too.

        I wouldn't want a tree close enough to shade my house. I'd rather put in extra blowin insulation in the attic. $3k of extra insulation is much more noticable- p

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          Yep there is a reason why insurance companies ask if you have any trees near your property and the jack up your premiums because of them.

      • Actually, solar on the rooftop does a great job of lowering building temp.
    • Re:Enh. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by dstwins ( 167742 ) on Monday October 05, 2020 @11:00PM (#60576204) Homepage

      I think you are confusing a trend and overall costs vs. your unique use case.

      Obvious for solar, its not going to be the best case for EVERY single person (especially without some concessions like placement, height, etc..).. If your house is in the middle of a shady glen, then yeah, chances are solar (as it right now) is not your best bet.. but it doesn't really matter because as the primary power producers invest, you would still take advantage of solar, just on someone else's "land".

      • This is what happens when people like the ones now running Slashdot turn lots of things into an "us vs. them" contest, just to push our primitive part of our brain buttons and get more mouse clicks.

        Why cannot natural gas and renewables co-exist? Why does natural gas need to be "kicked to the curb"? The whole premise of this article title is so immature.

    • by Kisai ( 213879 )

      This is one of the unfortunate side-effects of renewables.

      It's very situational. Live in some place with poor sunlight, no subsidy for you because you're just generating inefficient power. Want a wind turbine, got to make sure piles of regulations are followed.

      Like I'm not saying don't, but the ideal thing in most of the US and Canada is to consider Geothermal first, even though it's expensive, it's also perpetually going to run and costs nothing since you can have a complete closed loop for it, much like a

      • Re:Enh. (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Evtim ( 1022085 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @03:37AM (#60576606)

        So much dancing around with numbers, so much trouble, so much effort to squeeze a few more joules from unicorn farts and pet political projects...sigh

        Just go nuclear and stop bull-shitting everyone. Burning fossil fuels for energy should be outlawed...

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          You can have nuclear if you are willing to pay for it. And I mean really pay for it, none of this free unlimited insurance bullshit.

          Personally I don't see the point and am already on a renewable only energy tariff. I'm confident the lights will stay on and happy to save money with renewable energy.

      • by shilly ( 142940 )

        Offshore wind has been massively successful in the UK, for the reasons you mention (birds, NIMBYs). Hasn't been combined with solar or tidal except insofar as the whole grid is connected.

      • Re:Enh. (Score:5, Interesting)

        by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @04:18AM (#60576664)

        What needs to happen is a combined Solar-Wind farm model with a storage system where the solar runs during the day, and the wind runs during the night (and less likely to chop up birds).

        I know you see a lot of birds during the day... but for significant portions of the year (including right now) there are far, FAR more of them moving around at night. With some modern weather radars, you can even see the amazingly dense echoes of them as they begin their flights at dusk.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          Wind is actually one of the least deadly forms of electricity production for birds. Nuclear can sometimes get close, it depends where the fuel is from and what's done with it when it becomes waste, but fossil fuels certainly can't.

          Also both are a tiny fraction of the number of birds murdered by domestic housecats.

      • For an individual home owners, it's not as vital that you get your own local electricity generation. It might be nice if you can, but no one should beat themselves up for this. Not being able to install your own solar should be treated like not being able to install your own wind turbine, both need special conditions and suitable space. Since we're not all going to be able to live on an acre of land (4000 sq meter), we pool resources, create utilities, let them manage the complexity for us.

    • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

      I have to KILL TREES in order to be MORE GREEN.

      Yes, in fact trees are the original renewables.

    • Re:Enh. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by h33t l4x0r ( 4107715 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @01:42AM (#60576392)
      No you need to kill trees to get the subsidy. You make it sound like they told you you're not allowed to have solar panels.
    • An inconvenient factoid is that thanks to mechanized farming, we now use less farmland in North America and Europe than in the 19th century, with the result that tree cover has increased enormously - the trees grew up like weeds on the old Soviet era farms: https://ec.europa.eu/environme... [europa.eu] and this https://link.springer.com/chap... [springer.com] and this https://www.researchgate.net/p... [researchgate.net]
      • An inconvenient factoid is that thanks to mechanized farming, we now use less farmland in North America and Europe than in the 19th century, with the result that tree cover has increased enormously - the trees grew up like weeds on the old Soviet era farms: ...

        Surely that is a good thing for the environment. Trees are a very good way of sequestering atmospheric carbon, and tree root systems are good to prevent flooding and leaching of nutrients out of the soil.

        I thought the big problem was trees being cut down to make way for agricultural land, in Brazil for example.

        I do not think it is mechanised farming that would reduce agricultural land use. I thought it was due to new crop varieties, and various fertiliser inputs. Some of this productivity gain may be eroded

  • by bobstreo ( 1320787 ) on Monday October 05, 2020 @10:51PM (#60576186)

    A decommissioned coal plant (it had been shut down for 10+ years) was replaced by a NG generating plant.

      I think they're still cleaning up coal trailing contamination to this day.

      In a place without that much sun, NG makes a lot of sense, if it's being burned "clean". Cheap and "clean" as opposed to coal plants....

    •   In a place without that much sun, NG makes a lot of sense, if it's being burned "clean". Cheap and "clean" as opposed to coal plants....

      What about wind?

      •   In a place without that much sun, NG makes a lot of sense, if it's being burned "clean". Cheap and "clean" as opposed to coal plants....

        What about wind?

        Very small footprint for site, the NG generators took up a corner of the property which was blocked for wind in about 3 directions. The sad part was that they tore down 3 of the stacks for the coal plant, which were pretty cool looking.

      • Wind is great on a windy day... The problem is there are lots of days where it isn't windy.

        • at ground level yes, but at the height they put up turbines now, its almost always windy
          • by PinkyGigglebrain ( 730753 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @03:27AM (#60576588)

            might also be too cold for windmills. even carbon fiber gets brittle is it gets cold enough. And then there is also the prospect of ice build up on the blades, etc.

            There are a lot of inhabited locations on Earth that are not suited for solar or wind. Humanity needs to consider all possible energy sources that are carbon neutral, and that actually would include NG if it is generated from biomass instead of the ground.well.

            • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              The UK just announced it will massively expand offshore wind by 2030. Our government is full of liars but you never know. Anyway most of them will be in the North Sea, an extremely harsh environment. We have the technology to deal with it though. Salt water, freezing temperatures, big waves, high winds.

            • So how come aircraft is using more and more CFRP despite them flying at altitudes where the temperature is way lower?

          • Not really, the data from the generators say otherwise.

            The UK at least has cool data showing how much power is generated by each type of system. Updated in near real time too.

            https://energynumbers.info/gbg... [energynumbers.info]

            Pretty good today, at 12:46pm, we have 3.5GW from solar, 7.7GW from wind, and 13.7 gas. Of course solar will drop to nothing later tonight, and the wind may hold up. Last week though, wind was showing 1.5GW

            And that's the problem - wind and solar are so unrelaibale that you cannot build a grid off them.

    • Natural gas replacing coal is a good interim solution, because we still need on-demand power generation, and NG is considerably cleaner than coal, in terms of pollutants like oxides of sulfur, heavy metals, and so on.

      The alternatives to power generation based on fossil fuels, such as renewables and nuclear, do not meet all the requirements for a national power system. Wind and solar are intermittent sources; useful when they are there, but you can't add supply on demand. Nuclear is strictly baseline stuff.

  • Solar everywhere (Score:5, Informative)

    by backslashdot ( 95548 ) on Monday October 05, 2020 @11:09PM (#60576224)

    Why aren't we using solar panels everywhere? It doesn't make sense not to do solar everywhere. In a decade all cars will be electric anyway. It can't be stopped, the Chinese will stamp out cheap electric cars if Nissan, VW, or Tesla doesn't. Because of the drivetrain, the internals of electric cars are a lot less complicated and easier to manufacture than internal combustion engine driven car, and and they can be assembled with far less human intervention .. and they last much longer -- no oil change BS required .. the only thing is brake service. Don't take my word for it .. ask anyone who owns an electric car. Maybe 2030, definitely by 2035 we'll have new cars that are 250 mile range, with million mile longevity batteries (motors are already at that mark), and bunch of advanced accident avoidance features for $15,000. Come back in the year 2030 or 2035 and check this comment.

  • Nuclear is next (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Required Snark ( 1702878 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @12:47AM (#60576326)
    No matter how excited you are by your fission power plant fantasy, renewable energy is the future. No cool but completely untested thorium, molten salt, or small modular reactor is going to be able to compete economically with renewable power.

    Fusion will become viable sooner then expected. Many of the problems with fusion can be addressed with advances in engineering and materials, with better superconducting magnets being the obvious example. Supercomputing will also be important because better simulation will lead to better design at lower development cost.

    A mix of renewable energy and fusion for the base load is the long term solution. Advocating for fission is akin to trying to bring back horses for most transportation and ignoring what to do with the horse shit.

    • I hope you're right about fusion. I still think fission, with all the latest safety advances, is better than all the other currently existing types of energy but people are too scared of it. It would be much cheaper to build than the others if the red tape and lack of scale didn't make it super expensive.

    • You'd have a better rant if you didn't say that stupid stuff about thorium being "untested."

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by rossdee ( 243626 )

      "Fusion will become viable sooner then expected."

      What do you think solar is? A fusion reactor that is 93 million miles away.

    • Fusion will become viable sooner then expected is a pretty meaningless statement.
    • Fusion will become viable sooner then expected.

      Yes, it will become viable sooner than it is expected, then it will become expected.

      It's already too late for fusion to become viable sooner than expected, because it was expected decades ago.

    • ^ this is same sort of substanceless, math-disregarding cheerleading that leads to stupid ideas like UBI "we'll just pay everyone enough to live on, then everyone will be happy!"

      Renewable power cannot handle surge loads, and is environmentally dependent. Not a lot of solar generation in Minnesota winter with a sun angle of 22 degrees and 2/3 of the days with no sun at all.
      No geothermal.
      Wind is a terrible base load provider, although it can be a decent supplemental generator.
      Fusion DOESN'T EXIST. "it's abou

  • I'm sure there are ways of breaking down oil into NG but I thought NG was plentiful enough naturally. Before being used in homes it was vented into the atmosphere without burning. So isn't it a bad thing if what is going to be released anyway isn't used? From what I understand burning NG is way better for the environment that just letting it escape into the atmosphere.... unless of course it's being artificially generated. Anyone know?

    • by Ronin441 ( 89631 )

      Every oil well is licensed by that nation's regulatory body. It's unheard-of for a regulator to allow bulk release of the natural gas directly to the atmosphere. (If nothing else, it would be a fire and explosion hazard.)

      Different reservoirs have different mixtures of stuff in the product, where "stuff" is mostly oil, natural gas, carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, water, and sand particles.

      It's uncommon for regulators to allow the gas to be simply burned on location, unless there's only a small amount o

  • by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @01:47AM (#60576396)

    There's exactly one state where both wind and solar are actually economical in US even without subsidies. The area where high solar intensity and constant wind without dust particulates exist. Texas. Which is why that's the one state in US where both wind and solar are unsubsidised and growing. This was known for a long time, there's nothing "startling" about this.

    Everywhere else in US, that doesn't exist. Which is why everywhere else, natgas remains the king, except where forbidden by state law. In that place, there are blackouts.

    What they "discovered" is their own sampling bias.

    • Re: (Score:2, Flamebait)

      by Noishkel ( 3464121 )
      Facts have no place in a discussion forum about renewable energy. Just shut up and screech about the Climate Crisis.
      • ... is because it is Texas. None of that en-vir-on-mental bullshit in the lone star state.

        It just happens to be economical there as well. But with a bit of a subsidy it would be huge.

        What is needed is a tax on carbon emmissions. Then let the economics decide the best approaches.

        But that ain't never going to happen in Texas.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Are there any states where it's actually economic for fossil and nuclear to exist without subsidies? Seems unlikely if renewables can't, given that renewables are at worst comparable on cost and usually cheaper.

      At the heights they build turbines these days there is near constant wind in many places, and even more so off shore. With a bit of geographic distribution it's a solved problem.

      Any evidence of blackouts due to lack of natural gas plants? Seems a bit far fetched.

      • by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @07:16AM (#60576934)

        >Are there any states where it's actually economic for fossil and nuclear to exist without subsidies?

        Yes. Literally everywhere. There's a reason why developing countries that want to actually get a stable electric grid go for coal.

        This isn't new or interesting. Read on what Paris Agreement payments from developed to developing countries are based on. Hint: It's to offset the additional costs of installing much more expensive, much less reliable sources of energy than coal.

        Because if you don't care about CO2 emissions, coal is an undisputed king in most of the world. It's stable, it's easy to move, easy to store, doesn't spoil, it's highly energy dense and it's easily available across the planet. In other words, it's cheap to build burners for, cheap to buy, transport and store and cheap to burn. Reminder that while natgas is all but free in US right now because of shale revolution and excellent piping infrastructure, this doens't exist anywhere else. Everywhere else outside major supplier countries like Gulf states and Russia, natgas is still significantly more expensive than coal. And infrastructure needed to transport and store it is incredibly expensive and limited.

        And that is why we agree to pay developing countries not to just install coal when they express their desire for having what developed world takes for granted: a stable, regionally scaled and nearly universally reliable electric grid. The base necessity for things like industry to exist.

        And until people reach a reasonable amount of wealth, they don't care about CO2 or global warming. This is also well documented at this point. People need to hit certain income brackets before they start caring about "issues that might affect my children and their children". Before that point, "being able to get a job at a factory now that pays good money" takes precedence. This is largely culture-agnostic. And all the whining of rich far leftist children that never grew up about their original sin doesn't affect the fact that they're a tiny minority of people on this planet. And most people are still well below the threshold where they will start to care about AGW, which means that they will demand those coal plants where they can.

        Nukes are a thing for wealthier countries. Because they require a stable country. An established one if you will. Because they're a half a century or more of an investment, and if your country goes through several government overthrows in that time on median, with each carrying a risk of access to fuel or technology needed to keep it running, that's not a good investment.

        >At the heights they build turbines these days there is near constant wind in many places, and even more so off shore. With a bit of geographic distribution it's a solved problem.

        And then you looked at global wind maps, and understood that you're an idiot. Wait, if you had any self awareness, you wouldn't be posting this nonsense for years on end. Nevermind.

        >Any evidence of blackouts due to lack of natural gas plants? Seems a bit far fetched.

        Basic physics as related to electricity are more than sufficient. The fact that you're not just claiming "impossible" any more as you did in the past is progress I suppose. I guess you got hammered with facts and experienced people explaining this in exhaustive detail in the previous cali blackout thread, that you're actually no longer of absolute opinion. A rarity, and a welcome one. I am encouraged by the fact that even someone as zealous as you with most opinions can still waver in your faith when overwhelming body of evidence is hammered down every post you make about it.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          Well how about China, for example? Built a load of coal plants and then mothballed them because renewables were so much cheaper they couldn't compete.

          Having said that do you know of any country that doesn't subsidise fossil fuels? Hard to even do a fair comparison without that.

    • There's exactly one state where both wind and solar are actually economical in US even without subsidies

      False. Texas does provide subsidies in the form of incentives and tax rebates [energysage.com].

      Which is why that's the one state in US where both wind and solar are unsubsidised and growing.

      If they were unsubsidized, incentives and tax rebates wouldn't be needed.

      Which is why everywhere else, natgas remains the king, except where forbidden by state law. In that place, there are blackouts.

      Huh? What does this even mean?

  • by kenwd0elq ( 985465 ) <kenwd0elq@engineer.com> on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @02:05AM (#60576424)

    "Because when renewables compete head to head with thermal generation, they win hands down 95% of the time."

    If this were true, then most "renewables" wouldn't need the massive taxpayer subsidies that they get. Eliminate the subsidy on "renewables", and let the "market" decide.

    • Re:Oh, Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Maxo-Texas ( 864189 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @02:25AM (#60576474)

      Sure as long as we remove the multi-trillion dollar subsidies for oil, coal, nuclear, and natural gas thru free on land and naval security, tax payer backed decommissioning costs (they keep the profits- your grandkids pay the bill), a full on naval fleet protecting tankers, 4,000 dead, countless others crippled protecting oil fields and so on. Hell the coal subsidies are complete embedded in uniquely favorable treatment for their industry in the tax code.

      I'd love to drop subsidies for all of them. And to have escrows up front and clawbacks on savings and pensions afterwards for pollution and excess costs. Private insurance companies wont even consider insuring nuclear plant decomissioning costs because they are *always* high. And that doesn't included involuntary premiums on tax payers and rate payers decades after plant are built such as we saw in the midwest.

      We really need to stop alternative energy companies from externalizing their costs- but we also need to stop subsidizing all the existing energy companies too.

      • Don't forget insurance costs. If nuclear power plants needed private insurance before they could operate, there would be no civilian nuclear power in any free market system. No private company would take on that risk. All fission reactors are effectively insured by the state.

        Fossil fuels also get an implicit free ride because they are not burdened with realistic costs when it comes to pollution, cleanup costs for extraction, and the long term costs after the resources have been used. There are abandoned t

    • by Ronin441 ( 89631 )

      Up to 2015 or so, unsubsidised renewables were more expensive than fossil fuel plants. So they needed subsidies to compete.

      But we've gotten better at making renewable power for a cheap price. Now, whether it's cheaper to build and operate a new renewable plant or a new fossil plant depends on the circumstances: Lots of sun/wind? Little sun/wind? Maximum output aligned with maximum demand for electricity or not?

      Renewables are continuing to get cheaper in line with Wright's law (as you manufacture more o

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Nuclear has infinite subsidies. Literally unlimited free insurance, no maximum payout.

      Just last week a court in Japan rules that victims of the Fukushima nuclear disaster were due even more compensation from the government than they had already received. Over 9 years later and they haven't even finished the litigation.

  • by Pinky's Brain ( 1158667 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @02:58AM (#60576528)

    Renewables are coasting on existing infrastructure serving as backup without investment, but it will have to be replaced eventually.

    Any country which buys the fairy tales and doesn't provide the appropriate incentives for that replacement will likely run into trouble. Private industry isn't going to gamble on arbitrage potential for decades to build it.

  • the massive toxic waste from batteries and other renewables...
  • by WindBourne ( 631190 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @08:08AM (#60577034) Journal
    It is time to stop the massive subsidies on regular wind, and solar over land. In addition, we need to hold accountable with with storage or whatever backup they are doing.
  • by Wild_dog! ( 98536 ) on Tuesday October 06, 2020 @08:45AM (#60577162)

    The author in the article displays quite a tone that is not necessary.

    "Orange Judas who occupies that office at present nominated Bernard McNamee — an avowed fossil fuel advocate who slobbers all over himself when Charles Koch waves dollars under his nose. "

    One may agree or disagree with the president in office currently, but focusing not on disparaging monikers but on the data would be better appreciated.

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