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Power United States

135-Year-Long Streak Is Over: Renewables Overtake Coal, But Lag Far Behind Oil and Natural Gas (forbes.com) 187

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Forbes: Last week the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported something extraordinary. For the first time in 135 years, last year U.S. consumption of renewables surpassed consumption of coal. There are two interrelated reasons for this: The collapse of coal consumption over the past decade, which was fueled by the rise of cheaper alternatives. I have covered the reasons for coal's collapse previously. The short version is that policies to curb carbon emissions were put in place about the same time the shale boom and renewable power revolutions created cheaper, cleaner alternatives to coal. The graphic above shows the surge in renewables that helped collapse coal demand. This surge is better shown by the following graphic, which highlights the three categories of modern renewables that have driven the consumption surge: Wind power, solar power, and biofuels. The report points out that fossil fuels still dominate our energy consumption. "Last year the U.S. consumed 11.3 quadrillion BTUs (quads) of coal and 11.5 quads of renewables," adds Forbes. "But we also consumed 36.7 quads of petroleum and 32.1 quads of natural gas. Each of these categories of fossil fuel consumption was greater than our combined consumption of renewables and coal, which provides a broader perspective on our energy consumption."

"In total, the U.S. consumed 80.5 quads of fossil fuels, 11.5 quads of renewables, and 8.5 quads of nuclear power. Renewables represented 11.4% of U.S. energy consumption in 2019, versus 8.1% a decade ago."
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135-Year-Long Streak Is Over: Renewables Overtake Coal, But Lag Far Behind Oil and Natural Gas

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  • And in other news, the EIA is apparently run by Krogan.
    • In other news: Renewables were ahead of coal in the 19th century.

  • Just coal (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Livius ( 318358 ) on Monday June 01, 2020 @11:07PM (#60133990)

    I think renewables versus non-renewables, or at least renewables versus hydrocarbons, would be a more meaningful comparison.

    • Re:Just coal (Score:4, Insightful)

      by blindseer ( 891256 ) <blindseer@eartBO ... minus physicist> on Monday June 01, 2020 @11:40PM (#60134084)

      I think renewables versus non-renewables, or at least renewables versus hydrocarbons, would be a more meaningful comparison.

      Why lump all renewable energy sources together? Should we not break that out into wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, and biomass? We could. From that we will find that wind and hydro really dominate in this and solar contributes little more than a rounding error. Wood and other biomass fuels contribute quite a bit but I'd rather see wood used for building material (especially since this is an effective carbon sink). I'd also rather see crop land used for food and clothing crops instead of energy crops or getting paved over with solar panels.

      I remember seeing people celebrate that former tobacco fields were being covered in solar PV panels. What a waste of good land. That should instead be used to grow cotton, sunflowers, wheat, strawberries, cabbage, or seeded with wild grass and left to nature. Before someone mentions "agrivoltaics" I'll consider that an improvement of what they are doing now but that's not what people are doing. Yes, agrivoltaics does allow for electricity and crops on the same land but I'm not seeing people do that. Likely because that costs a lot of money. Doing that means that large harvesters cannot be brought in to get the crops. Even with the minimal shading that happens there is a noticeable loss in crop production so even with hand harvested crops there is little incentive to go this route. The people that grow crops want to grow crops. If someone wants to make this harder for them by putting solar PV panels in the way then they will have to be paid enough to make it worth the effort. This means rising costs for food and energy.

      We should be breaking these energy sources out separately. Then we can see just how shitty solar power is by comparison with just about anything else we could do for producing energy.

      • by dwywit ( 1109409 ) on Tuesday June 02, 2020 @12:24AM (#60134194)

        This is becoming tiresome.

        Show me on the doll where the solar panel touched you.

        • Re:Just coal (Score:4, Informative)

          by blindseer ( 891256 ) <blindseer@eartBO ... minus physicist> on Tuesday June 02, 2020 @12:37AM (#60134226)

          This is becoming tiresome.

          Show me on the doll where the solar panel touched you.

          My taxes. My wallet.

          This is getting tiresome, seeing money that taxpayers earned being flushed down the toilet by elected officials trying to by votes with solar power projects that fail to lower CO2 emissions or lower energy prices. If some private citizen wants to pay their own money on a solar power project then that's fine by me. What we don't need is a solar power industry propped up by regulations and taxation, which has only raised energy prices and done little to nothing to lower CO2 emissions.

          End all energy subsidies. If solar power is so great then it doesn't need subsidies.

          • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Tuesday June 02, 2020 @01:08AM (#60134318)

            I have solar panels on my roof, but I agree that solar subsidies are a bad idea.

            There was an article in Scientific American a few years back about the effectiveness of different carbon reduction policies. Solar panel subsidies were one of the least effective per dollar spent. About a hundred times less effective than the best policy when measuring over the next century.

            The most effective policy was making contraceptives more available to women in developing countries.

            • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

              by Freischutz ( 4776131 )

              I have solar panels on my roof, but I agree that solar subsidies are a bad idea.

              There was an article in Scientific American a few years back about the effectiveness of different carbon reduction policies. Solar panel subsidies were one of the least effective per dollar spent. About a hundred times less effective than the best policy when measuring over the next century.

              The most effective policy was making contraceptives more available to women in developing countries.

              Solar and wind don't need subsidies any more. Coal does, nuclear does and fracking gas and fracking oil needs the US government to walk from OPEC country to OPEC country with a big spiky stick issuing threats to make sure they don't drop carbon fuel prices into regions where the US fracking industry is hopelessly unprofitable.

            • The most effective policy was making contraceptives more available to women in developing countries.
              That is nonsense. Most developing countries are already close to stable population. And most of the CO2 is produced in America and Europe and not in a developing country.

          • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

            by Anonymous Coward

            End all energy subsidies

            Funny, you sure seemed OK with these recent DOE subsidies [slashdot.org].

          • Re:Just coal (Score:4, Insightful)

            by Bert64 ( 520050 ) <bert@NOSpaM.slashdot.firenzee.com> on Tuesday June 02, 2020 @01:30AM (#60134372) Homepage

            The market is concerned with short term profit, not about long term sustainability. Without some form of counterbalance (eg regulation) you will just end up with destruction...

            Not giving a shit about the environment is much cheaper than making any effort to preserve it. Burning the dirtiest fuels and dumping of toxic waste is the cheapest and most profitable course of action. If companies are free to do this, then this is exactly what they will do. Any companies that choose not to will end up being more expensive than their competitors and being forced out of the market.

            • If companies are free to do this, then this is exactly what they will do.

              Stronger statement: when companies were free to do that then that is exactly what they did. See, e.g. rivers catching fire.

          • campaign to transfer all the subsidies from the old tech to the new tech - old tech has not needed subsidies for decades.
          • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

            by Freischutz ( 4776131 )

            This is becoming tiresome.

            Show me on the doll where the solar panel touched you.

            My taxes. My wallet.

            This is getting tiresome, seeing money that taxpayers earned being flushed down the toilet by elected officials trying to by votes by subsidising an unprofitable coal mining industry ... blah blah blah ...

            Now show us on the doll where else the solar panel touched you...

          • by orlanz ( 882574 )

            Then get off the grid. Seriously, you have no idea just how much the energy you use is subsidized all over the world. Irrelevant of how its produced or transferred or where it is used, every watt that comes to you has a huge spread of subsidies so that you don't need to deal with the political & environmental fluctuations from every corner of the world for every part of the supply chain.

          • This is becoming tiresome. Show me on the doll where the solar panel touched you.

            My taxes. My wallet. This is getting tiresome, seeing money that taxpayers earned being flushed down the toilet by elected officials trying to by votes with solar power projects

            The amount of your taxes used on solar power is so trivial that you can't make a pie chart large enough for the wedge to be visible. Really.

            If taxes are your real issue, you're looking in the wrong place.
            e.g., https://i.insider.com/50887413... [insider.com]
            ...and if you're ready to say "there it is, that little green wedge named "Department of Energy"-- no. Most of the DOE budget goes to nuclear-- a big part to nuclear weapons and maintaining existing weapons, a somewhat smaller but still large part to cleaning up pas

          • If solar power is so great then it doesn't need subsidies.

            That comment applies to literally every form of energy all of which is subidies in one form or another. But the reality is solar doesn't need subsidies. It is more than financially viable on its own. However our goal is not to sit here and wait for attrition to slowly find a to stop us fucking ourselves. Hence subsidies are used to accelerate a transition.

            And they have worked amazingling. Thanks to subsidies production has increase. Thanks to subsidies costs have come down. Thanks to subsidies R&D has b

          • End all energy subsidies. If solar power is so great then it doesn't need subsidies.
            Everything new needs subsidies. Or it never comes to market.

            Are you a clown?

            Well, most subsidies come in form of multibillionaires investing into something new to bring it to market. Or do you think such things popped up from a garage and suddenly dominated a market and replaced old obsolete technology?

            Everything new comes by one for of subsidizing ... why not with taxes where you have influence with your vote? About what mu

      • "Yes, agrivoltaics does allow for electricity and crops on the same land but I'm not seeing people do that. Likely because that costs a lot of money."

        Why do you always have this unrealistic expectation that a new industry has to be 100% in place overnight? Rome wasn't built in a day. You can also have livestock in the same fields as solar. Solar will also become more of a force once more buildings have panels and storage. - again Rome wasn't built in a day.
        • Why do you always have this unrealistic expectation that a new industry has to be 100% in place overnight? Rome wasn't built in a day.

          I'm not expecting an overnight change. I've simply been told for my entire life that we will have our energy from 100% renewable sources any day now. Well? Where is it? How much longer do I have to put up with this bullshit before I see something out of solar power?

          I've seen wind power gain some meaningful ground. We dammed up all the rivers with a hydroelectric dam sometime in the 1950s. What I've also seen is nuclear power being held back because of solar power was supposed to replace all our nuclea

          • I've simply been told for my entire life that we will have our energy from 100% renewable sources any day now.

            You've been told the same things about nuclear fusion. Well, I guess in a roundabout way it's true: renewable power is actually nuclear fusion.

            It's been over 40 years of the promise of solar power replacing nuclear power. It's no closer to happening now than it was then.

            Judging from the annual rate of installation, you're very wrong on that. If everything goes right, 9.4 GW of new nuclear capacity will go online in 2020. Meanwhile in 2019, PV capacity corresponding to ~14 GW of nuclear capacity in terms of total production was connected to the grid. It's not just "closer to happening"; it's already happened. In 2021, it's expected t

            • The one thing that baffles me is how so many people just don't even consider the massive variance in the feedstock supply chain and maintenance costs of various power sources.

              When the nuclear power plant in my area needs to get refueled, it's major news. Roads get shut down, there's talk about the loss of power generation and what's going to make up for it, etc. They plan a good 6 months in advance for it, and it's a very big deal.

              When the wind turbines undergo maintenance or the solar panels get washed, no

      • What a waste of good land. That should instead be used to grow cotton, sunflowers, wheat, strawberries, cabbage, or seeded with wild grass and left to nature.

        Here's an idea. Just ditch all the corn production that is being used for making ethanol. In that area alone, you'll be able to produce hundreds of gigawatts of average power output. Plus you'll be able to grow many of those things things in that area anyway.

        Even with the minimal shading that happens there is a noticeable loss in crop production

        There are actually cases where it leads to *increased* production: [oranit.de]

        “We found that many of our food crops do better in the shade of solar panels because they are spared from the direct sun,” says Baron-Gafford. “In fact, total chiltepin fruit production was three times greater under the PV panels in an agrivoltaic system, and tomato production was twice as great!”

      • by XXongo ( 3986865 )

        Why lump all renewable energy sources together? Should we not break that out into wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, and biomass?

        If you looked at the links in the summary, the second graph linked does show this:
        https://specials-images.forbes... [forbesimg.com]

        We could. From that we will find that wind and hydro really dominate in this and solar contributes little more than a rounding error. Wood and other biomass fuels contribute quite a bit

        Yes, looks like wood, hydro, and biofuels are the three big ones. ("wood" should have been called a biofuel, of course, but since burning wood for energy is ancient, I guess they didn't want to lump them together.)

        but I'd rather see wood used for building material (especially since this is an effective carbon sink).

        Mostly, this is a different type of wood,.

        More notably, though, there just isn't enough building material usage to notice on the scale of energy usage, in which fossil fuels us

      • I'd also rather see crop land used for food and clothing crops instead of energy crops or getting paved over with solar panels
        You got already hundreds of times too: basically no one is doing that.

        Why would anyone do that?

        The only cases I'm aware about are crop lands that got taken out of service by EU laws and got special solar subsidies in Germany. Often close to railways.

        And then again: Japan is experimenting with combined solar and crop fields. Only about 30% of the field is covered with panels standing

    • I think renewables versus non-renewables, or at least renewables versus hydrocarbons, would be a more meaningful comparison.

      Depends on what you're trying to show. We can focus on renewables vs all fossil fuels next, but even this is quite meaningful as coal and fuel oil are the two most carbon intense energy sources we have.

      Even if coal's demise was entirely due to the rise of natural gas that is still an outright win.

  • And replace it with more renewables, not with natural gas.
    We have to do that rapid phase-out to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets to prevent warming more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial resolution global average temperature.
    Natural gas superficially seems clean, and has less local air pollution concerns compared to coal, but it just slows dow the move to zero-emission energy sources, and natural gas is also a powerful greenhouse gas, especially when some of it leaks during exploration, production, and transportation.
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by blindseer ( 891256 )

      And replace it with more renewables, not with natural gas.

      Why not replace coal with nuclear power? It would be cheaper than solar.

      We have to do that rapid phase-out to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets to prevent warming more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial resolution global average temperature.

      We will not meet any CO2 emission reduction goals without more nuclear power.

      Natural gas superficially seems clean, and has less local air pollution concerns compared to coal, but it just slows dow the move to zero-emission energy sources, and natural gas is also a powerful greenhouse gas, especially when some of it leaks during exploration, production, and transportation.

      Natural gas is cheap, that's why we use it. If people want to see more solar power then make it cheaper than natural gas. Onshore wind is likely already as cheap as natural gas. When moved offshore then it gets expensive. If we can afford offshore wind then we can afford nuclear power. Once we gain experience in nuclear power then it will get cheaper than

      • by Maxo-Texas ( 864189 ) on Tuesday June 02, 2020 @12:11AM (#60134154)

        When private insurance companies will reinsure decommissioning costs, then we can truly say nuclear is cheaper.

        Right now- it's cheaper for us but the cost of storing and guarding the waste plus cost over runs on decomissinoing plus cost surcharges *always* fall involuntarily on future tax papers. It's immoral for us to take "cheap" nuclear power and toss the costs forward on to them. And it's also lying to say nuclear is cheaper when we do that.

        Likewise- with warming sea water and disappearing glaciers- many nuclear plants may be even less efficient in the future.

        • Comment removed based on user account deletion
          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            It requires a bi-annual report on the state of the decommissioning fund. What are the consequences for under-funding it? What assumptions is it based on, e.g. X years service before decommissioning is required? What happens if it needs decommissioning early?

            And of course the big one, what if there is a serious accident and the piddly little $300M decommissioning fund doesn't cover the $300B clean up cost? I can tell you that in Japan's case the taxpayer took the hit, and that was just the clean-up, economic

      • by Uecker ( 1842596 ) on Tuesday June 02, 2020 @01:34AM (#60134388)

        Subsidies had the effect of making renewables much cheaper. While nuclear (which would not even exist without massive influx of tax dollars) is still very expensive.

        https://www.lazard.com/perspec... [lazard.com]

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by blindseer ( 891256 )

          Subsidies had the effect of making renewables much cheaper. While nuclear (which would not even exist without massive influx of tax dollars) is still very expensive.

          Subsidies makes energy cheaper? How? Subsidies are just taking money from one pocket, putting it in another, and somehow thinking that this is making us money. It's an accounting illusion of money being saved.

          Let's assume that subsidies do in fact make energy cheaper. What energy source has the lowest CO2 emissions? Which is the safest energy source? Which energy source has the lowest demands in labor, materials, and land per energy output? The answer for all those questions is nuclear power. Then l

          • Subsidies makes energy cheaper? How?

            By propping up an industry that is expected to make significant progress in terms of cost reduction to make that progress happen earlier.

            Which energy source has the lowest demands in labor, materials, and land per energy output?

            Antimatter? The problem is, antimatter is actually very expensive...and all is ultimately a matter of economics, and antimatter loses badly on that.

            How do we know how much a nuclear power plant costs until we actually build them? The answer is we don't know.

            Now THAT is true. Sadly what you find when you start building the plant is that costs will be significantly higher than what you expected.

          • Solar power was also very expensive years ago. The costs dropped significantly because we built solar PV panels anyway. This is because of experience improving the technology and bringing economy of scale.

            Er, no. The costs dropped significantly because China spent $47 billion in subsidies [scientificamerican.com] to help build its solar manufacturing sector into what it calls a “strategic industry,” dropping world prices for solar panels by 80% over five years (2008-2013).

      • Here in the UK, nuclear power is subsidised because it can't compete on price and has been for decades
        • Here in the UK, nuclear power is subsidised because it can't compete on price and has been for decades

          The UK nuclear industry is a massive pile of stupid and a great example of the government undercutting actual British industry in the most expensive way possible. That damage is long done.

    • Natural gas has lead to a tremendous increase in the amount of methane.

      https://www.nationalgeographic... [nationalgeographic.com]
      https://www.msn.com/en-us/news... [msn.com]

  • The real story (Score:5, Informative)

    by alvinrod ( 889928 ) on Monday June 01, 2020 @11:12PM (#60134006)
    It isn't so much that renewables have overtaken coal as much as our coal consumption has been decreasing quite rapidly for a while now. There's a nice graph on Wikipedia that shows our energy consumption and where it's coming from [wikimedia.org]. Coal decrease has been mainly offset by an increase in natural gas use, which is probably more of a byproduct of fracking and the increase in U.S. oil production making natural gas less expensive.

    The good news is that even though we're still using fossil fuels, natural gas releases about half as much CO2 as coal for the same amount of energy that's produced, not to mention it doesn't have some of the other pollutants that also go along with coal. Also a lot of the gain in the renewables column is from biomass and that's by far the dirtiest as far as renewables go.
    • If you just look at methane use from an energy production view it is far better than using coal.

      However, if you are leaking CH4 during the fracking[1] - and during incomplete combustion when used as a fuel for cars - then the calculation doesn't look so good. Simply because methane is a climate gas[2] too and it has a much higher potential than its CO2 equivalent[3].

      The good side is that CH4 is faster removed from the atmosphere as CO2 would have been and that most of the methane emissions to the atmosphere

    • Higher-res version of the graph [wikipedia.org], although I think it's a bit suspect since it claims to go out to 2016, but was uploaded in 2014. Here's the raw data from the EIA [eia.gov], and the numbers aren't that far off from the graph.

      Also a lot of the gain in the renewables column is from biomass and that's by far the dirtiest as far as renewables go

      Biomass is net zero CO2. It can be dirty (as in producing other non-CO2 pollutants) if you burn wood. But most of it [eia.gov] is ethanol, burning of solid waste (i.e. sewage), and meth

    • "It isn't so much that renewables have overtaken coal as much as our coal consumption has been decreasing quite rapidly for a while now. "

      It doesn't matter if you went faster or someone else in the race went slower, if you pass them then you're overtaking.

  • Another burying of the lede on what is replacing coal and lowering CO2 emissions. It's not renewable energy. It's natural gas. Also, another story ignoring what is the lowest CO2 emitting energy source we have available, and has been such for decades. A source that is also the safest we've had.

    The idea of renewable energy powering the world is a delusion.
    https://www.theguardian.com/en... [theguardian.com]
    https://www.withouthotair.com/ [withouthotair.com]

    A plan for wind, water, and sun powering the world is a roadmap to nowhere.
    http://www.roadmaptonowhere.co... [roadmaptonowhere.com]

    Why we should favor nuclear power.
    http://cmo-ripu.blogspot.com/2... [blogspot.com]
    http://cmo-ripu.blogspot.com/2... [blogspot.com]
    http://cmo-ripu.blogspot.com/2... [blogspot.com]
    http://cmo-ripu.blogspot.com/2... [blogspot.com]

    We will not get to net zero CO2 emissions soon.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/r... [forbes.com]

    Renewable energy is expensive.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/m... [forbes.com]

    If climate change is a problem then why the opposition to solving it?
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/m... [forbes.com]

    • Nuclear fusion is better than fission in basically every way.
    • Oh welcome back. It's nice to see you posting your nuclear propaganda again, at least you mildly have a clue on this topic.

    • You've been flogging the wonders of nuclear energy for years, non-stop. Who's paying you?
  • by slashmydots ( 2189826 ) on Tuesday June 02, 2020 @01:36AM (#60134394)
    If figured it out. Billionaires are paying riot seeders to cause trouble so more people act like idiots and then they drastically increase the coal demand from santa for their stocking on Christmas. It all makes sense.
    • I think that's mostly it. But it's also a plot against Donald Trump. Don't forget that. Other billionaires can't afford to run for president. Or maybe Santa Claus is the plot against Trump. Or is Santa just a hoax make up by the Democrats? I can't keep up with all of the conspiracy theories anymore.
      • I can't keep up with all of the conspiracy theories anymore.

        Me too...here's a partial list:

        Pizzagate
        Deep State
        Crisis actors
        False flags
        Sandy Hook was a hoax
        Asbestos poisoning is a mob-led conspiracy
        Millions of illegals voting
        'Fake News-- Fake Bombs'
        FEMA camps
        The Uranium One deal
        Obama is a Kenyan Muslim
        Death panels
        Muslim zones
        The secret merger of Canada, Mexico and the US
        Common Core turning kids into homosexual globalist commies
        Murder of Seth Rich, Vince Foster
        Trump Tower wiretaps
        FISA memo
        Agenda 21
        Islamic training camps in America and Sharia Law in US courts
        Climate Ch

  • by jonwil ( 467024 ) on Tuesday June 02, 2020 @01:41AM (#60134410)

    With all the cheap sources of natural gas that have appeared in the US over the past decade or so (shale gas, fracking etc), coal would be on the way out even without renewables.

  • It probably took 10 quads of fossil fuel to make the renewable equipment to make that 11 quads too
  • One thing you have to keep in mind in these kind of comparisons is that much of the energy released by burning stuff isn't actually that useful. For instance, when you convert 1 ICE car on the road to a BEV, the sum on the renewable side may only grow X while the sum on the fossil side may be lowered by 3X.

    Even for heating purposes, a heat pump can double or triple the utility of the energy delivered by, say, a wind turbine.

  • A bunch of people hare arguing about the cash subsidies, without mentioning the real issue - illness subsidies.
    It isn't just about money, there is the problem of the commons, in this case major health and environment issues created by the energy sources.

    Coal is the worst, pumping out mercury and radioactive thorium in addition to the Carbon dioxide.

    The entire reason we have subsidies is not to make energy cost less $, but instead to make energy cost less pollution. Photovoltaic solar has EARNED those subsi

The unfacts, did we have them, are too imprecisely few to warrant our certitude.

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