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Power Australia

Will Tesla's Rooftop Solar Panels Revolutionize the Power Industry? (teslarati.com) 192

Long-time Slashdot reader 140Mandak262Jamuna brings news of a triumph for a Tesla power project in South Australia: about 900 residential rooftop solar panels, coupled with storage batteries, "all linked up to central control, to form what they are calling a 'Virtual Power Plant.'" Nothing virtual about it, distributed power plant would have been a better name. That project, designed to link 50,000 homes and their solar panels, is just 2% complete. About 1000 homes. That 2% complete project had enough juice and control to step in, detect the frequency drop, increase power from the batteries and save the day.
But does this have implications for the future? "The opportunity for Virtual Power Plants to reach a large scale will benefit all energy users through added competition to deliver services at reducing prices," says the executive general manager of emerging markets and services for the Australian Energy Market Operator (in the linked-to article above from Teslarati).

The original submission from 140Mandak262Jamuna argues this could be a game-changer for renewable energy: This is unprecedented. The electric utilities have been government-sanctioned monopolies for over a century, protected from competition... The battery bank will stabilize the grid so well, there will be no surge pricing for peaker power plants...

At present the Return-on-Investment comparison between solar/wind storage versus gas turbine power plants include the surge pricing benefit in favor of the gas power plants. It will be gone.

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Will Tesla's Rooftop Solar Panels Revolutionize the Power Industry?

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  • by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Saturday December 14, 2019 @07:40PM (#59519552) Journal
    The main thing that matters is cost. If it's cheaper than coal (or centralized solar), then it will take over. Otherwise it won't (or more likely, it will enter whatever niche it fits nicely, then expand over time as costs are reduced).
    • Surge pricing will simply increase as surge frequency decreases. We expect far more 9s for the uptime of electricity than these lithium ion batteries can supply with solar. Unless the solar is massively overprovisioned relative to nominal output.

      So no, you can't get rid of the cost of backup.

      • Pinky, your data seems to be as old as your eponymous serial Pinky and the Brain.

        Batteries are taking over the world. They are providing far longer than 9 second buffer. The grid batteries being planned are of the order of 350 MW for 4 hours. Or 175 MW for 4 hours. They react in milliseconds but have juice measured in GWh.

        • They're not saying '9 seconds' they're saying 'multiple nines' -- as in uptime reliability; eg 99 vs 99.9

          I made the same mistake at first.

        • by LynnwoodRooster ( 966895 ) on Saturday December 14, 2019 @10:11PM (#59519836) Journal

          Los Angeles County (just the county, not the greater LA area, or the State) used about 68 TWh of energy in 2018 [ca.gov]. Break that down, it's about a (68000 / 365/ 24) 7.8GWh consumption.

          That 1.4 GWh capacity? Yeah - that's a (1.4/7.8 * 60) 10 minute supply. We'll need around (60/10 * 4) 24 times that amount, for 4 hours, for just Los Angeles County.

          Given that the Gigafactory builds about 24 GWh of batteries per year, we'll need around (24 * 1.4 / 24) 1.4 YEARS of 100% dedicated output from that factory for just 4 hours for LA County.

          Gonna take a while to actually make a dent in the power grid, and to take over the world.

          • Amazing. LA County has 3.5 million housing units. About half of those are "detached" units, or what we think of as houses. Imagine if half of the houses were in neighborhoods with "virtual power plants." Sure, it'll take time to make a dent, but what an amazing dent it will be.

            And, in the years that it will take for this to be normal, we'll most assuredly have new advances that make it even easier to distribute power production.

            Also, are we even calculating the loss in power due to transmission from cen

            • You completely ignored the entire point - distributed or decentralized, you cannot build enough batteries for even 4 hours of backup for LA County. Doesn't matter if they are centralized or not - if you can't build them, you can't deploy them.
    • Don't compare it to coal, compare it to a non-solar roof. Apparently it's the same price, so anybody building a home or replacing their roof would be crazy not to.
      • Apparently it's the same price, so anybody building a home or replacing their roof would be crazy not to.

        Here in California, there is no choice. Solar roofs are mandatory on all new construction.

    • Coal is gone, coal is dead. Natural gas, wind, solar are all cheaper than coal. No new coal plant has been commissioned in USA since 2015.

      Battery storage removes the most obvious disadvantage of wind and solar. They are intermittent. So the ability to store will greatly make them viable. If the cost is low enough, of course.

      But storage will hurt solar/wind in the short run.

      Wind/solar is not yet cheaper than base load power plants running on natural gas. They make about 7.2 TWh of electricity a day. The

      • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Saturday December 14, 2019 @09:36PM (#59519768)

        Coal is gone, coal is dead.

        Coal is dying in America.

        Elsewhere it is alive and well. Dozens of coal plants are under construction in India, and many more in Africa.

        These plants have a productive lifetime of 60 years.

        Stopping these new coal plants should be our top priority. A solar panel installed on a roof in India will offset WAY more CO2 than a solar panel installed in America.

      • First ones to take advantage of battery will be these base load plants they will be able to run at full throttle all day churning out maximum capacity
        That is the definition of base load. Plants that run 24/365 on maximum capacity. So, adding solar - or batteries, will reduce the need of base load plants, not make them in any way more effective.

    • It is pretty cost competitive, although $/MW of grid-scale solar is much lower than distributed rooftop solar. You need to factor in other benefits to make the economics work— lower reliance on a high reliability grid, lower total infrastructure cost, ability to island, etc.

      As for existing coal or gas, it already beats the operating economics.

      A very interesting test case to watch will be what happens with PG if it gets broken into dozens of regional utilities there could be significant change to how w

    • It's how good it looks. Have you taken a lok at a tesla roof? fuck ya, i'd buy one for looks if they were affordable. And surprise, they are when you consider the pay back on the solar. People think about this ecatly backwards. They look at the pay back on the the solare, and if you do that you find it's not as good as a conventional butt ugly conventional framred solar panel. And even then it's marginal and too long a duration to amortize for most people. The claim is it makes your house worht more

  • by FlyingGuy ( 989135 ) <flyingguy@gm a i l .com> on Saturday December 14, 2019 @07:47PM (#59519566)

    Well it could be done, but ONLY if each user cooperates.

    And I am sure the established power companies will use every dirty trick in the book that can think of or dream up to fight this tooth and nail.

    They will start by siting safety concerns, and if that doesn't work they will go to their well paid elected representatives to pass some sort of regulation or law making the whole process either outright illegal or put up so MANY barriers as to make it financially impossible for the regular home owner.

  • by SirAstral ( 1349985 ) on Saturday December 14, 2019 @08:03PM (#59519584)

    there are multiple reasons for this.

    Regulatory, Many states have a mandatory connection to the public grid or you house gets condemned, even if you can prove you can supply power to your residence with greater uptime than your power-company that you experience the occasional power-outage with to mild to severe degrees. There is also a good reason to make sure that your power must fail when the grid fails so that workers can safely work on de-energized lines. Yes there are solutions to this.

    The Cost, like someone else posted, the cost to break into solar is going to be a major factor, if it is going to take more than 10 years for the investment to pay off many people will not jump on it. Many power companies have gamed the system and getting charge backs on the excess power you generate is likely a losing proposition. There is a literal mine field of contracts and bullshit where solar power is concerned and you really have to do your homework to avoid being screwed.

    Support, how many people could manage a DIY power system, regardless of the form it takes? Most people know that 120v comes out of their wall socket in the USA but they don't really know what AMP or WATT means or frequency with AC. They barely even understand what a volt is. They are not going to want to take care of it themselves, but to be honest this technically does not prevent a power revolution, though it is a factor.

    And finally the grid itself... regardless of how power is generated someone or something is going to have to maintain a grid because some locations cannot generate enough power to fully support their own loads while other locations can generate more power than their current loads require. Managing that is not going to be a simple task though it will not be excessively difficult either.

    If we were an intelligent nation we would be hip deep in a fully distribution electrical grid with battery backup and redundancy by now... but just like with everything else there is this idea of economic feasibility, which is an "emotionally driven" price just like everything else including the price on your home. If we cannot realize this infrastructure though the lens of a Monopolistic Power company we are likely not going to adopt it for many reasons.

    • by Tough Love ( 215404 ) on Saturday December 14, 2019 @08:25PM (#59519636)

      the cost to break into solar is going to be a major factor, if it is going to take more than 10 years for the investment to pay off many people will not jump on it.

      Just added solar to my boat and disconnected the shore power. It will take 1.5 years to pay for the panels, fittings and installation, that is a lot less than 10 years. So people will jump on it or what?

      In fact, nearly ever boat owner I know is talking about installing some kind of solar in the near future, if they have not already done so. Note that shore power is supplied at the same rate as residential power, so this isn't about somebody's monopoly on shore power.

      • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Sunday December 15, 2019 @02:31AM (#59520224)

        Just added solar to my boat and disconnected the shore power. It will take 1.5 years to pay for the panels, fittings and installation, that is a lot less than 10 years.

        Did you take into account capacity factor [wikipedia.org]? That factors in things like night, bad weather, angle of the sun as it moves across the sky, etc. Omitting capacity factor is the #1 mistake I see people make when calculating power generation and payback time for solar panels. They just use the rated generating capacity of the panel in their calculation. Unfortunately that wattage is only attained on a clear, sunny day at noon with the panel aimed directly at the sun. At all other times and conditions, the panel produces less wattage.

        For non-tracking PV panels, the average capacity factor for continental U.S. latitudes is about 0.145. That is, a 100 Watt solar panel will produce an average of 14.5 Watts over a year. For northern Europe and Canada latitutdes, it's about 0.10. The high for the continental U.S. is about 0.195 for the desert southwest.

        At a nominal electricity cost of 12 cents/kWh, your 1.5 year (13140 hours) payback time would then mean a 100 Watt panel cost you

        • (12 cents/kWh) * (100 Watts) * (0.145) * (13140 hours) = $22.86

        I seriously doubt you got solar installed on your boat for 23 cents per Watt of capacity. So more than likely you didn't account for capacity factor. If we divide by capacity factor, your 1.5 year payback time is actually 10.3 years. Almost exactly what OP gave as the average. (To avoid future errors, I strongly recommend you use the PWatts site [nrel.gov] to do your solar calculations for you. It properly accounts for a host of oft-overlooked things like capacity factor.)

        • Good argument, except that shore power hookup is not metered, rather it is charged at the maximum consumption of the (normally 15 amp, 100 volt) power connection. So I erred in my initial comparison with residential power, however I did not err in my payback estimation. I save $55 per month, full stop. Payback in 18 months.

          As a fringe benefit, I avoid the risk of electrocuting myself or others if something goes wrong with my 110 volt connection, and things do go wrong. [proboat.com] Pretty much impossible to kill yoursel

        • Omitting capacity factor is the #1 mistake I see people make when calculating power generation and payback time for solar panels.
          You got it just opposite.

          Using capacity factors, especially in discussions, is the #1 mistake people do.

          If you want to install solar power, you for fuck sake measure the angles. Get a table of solar distribution over the year, and narrow down your expected production into a +/- 2% range of true production. You can not do that with capacity factors, especially not if you get stupid

    • Tesla's roof top solar may or may not save the day and get you off the grid. In the near future, no.

      In the long run, the batteries will remove the peak load charges for big customers. Malls and office complexes might find it cheaper to buy batter banks and charge them steadily using low rates overnight, use them during the peak A/C load and avoid paying peak load charges and peak prices. So the utility will lose some revenue.

      People who can afford to buy enough batteries and solar to go off the grid are

      • "Malls and office complexes might find it cheaper to buy batter banks and charge them steadily using low rates overnight,"

        Power for Business and Industrial is a different ballgame. Those buildings are going to pull in far more juice than residential buildings and definitely require grid electricity and unless we develop some radical new PV tech it is not likely they will be contributors to the grid and even though residential can contribute to the grid it will not be in sufficient quantities to support bus

        • Malls etc usually have hug parking areas and large spans of roof, they could reduce their reliance of grid power to a very low rate if they put PV over the car parks and roofs, and if they have a tall building they could probably have a fairly useful size turbine on it.
    • Total BS. All the “problems” have long been solved. Some states may require a utility connection for certificate of occupancy, but none force that as an ongoing expense.

      • https://preppingplanet.com/off... [preppingplanet.com]

        Call those guys up and tell them that they are total BS.

        "Off grid living legal states: The off grid living legal states are, Alaska, Nevada, Montana, Texas, Tennesse, Montana, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Missouri, Ohio, Arizona, Hawaii, and Washington. While some states will encourage you to live off the grid others outright will make it impossible to do it legally.

        In most states living off the grid might be illegal, however, there are some states with more relaxed laws where yo

  • by burtosis ( 1124179 ) on Saturday December 14, 2019 @08:04PM (#59519588)
    Considering the threat to power generation companies, I’m surprised it’s not completely illegal in South Australia yet. Looks like America is a world leader in making distributed solar outright illegal [biologicaldiversity.org].
    • Beware of propaganda, America is a big place and there is probably always some place where (anything) is done poorly. That doesn't mean that the statement is generally true; in fact, the vast majority of Americans can even receive tax incentives for investing in distributed solar.

      My own utility allows anybody with a modern digital service meter to do micro-generation, using any approved inverter from a long list that includes all the common brands and models. They pay at wholesale rate. You can run solar, o

    • Power companies in SA are government regulated. There haven't been reports of power company lobbying, yet...
      Many people were concerned when the pro-renewable energy Labor government was replaced by the ostensibly climate-change denialist Liberals (at least Federally). But in this case the Libs have continued strong support for renewables. Great to see this issue is finally bi-partisan.
  • by glitch! ( 57276 ) on Saturday December 14, 2019 @08:05PM (#59519590)

    When a title is a question, the easy answer is "NO". The probable answer is also "NO". The best answer is "Probably not." The most interesting answer is "Probably not, but..."

    So the title question reduces the answer to be solar panels from Tesla, AND installed on roofs, AND that they will "revolutionize" the power industry. That is a tiny fraction of the solar industry. So the answer is "NO".

  • Well, you know, we all want to change the world...
  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • by Zack ( 44 )

      Most places have a "connect" fee and a "usage" fee. Even you generate 100% of your own energy you still pay for the connection.

    • The main users of the grid pay: the industry and other commerce!
      Or do you really think the few house holds are the reason you have a grid in your country?

  • Instead of you know, trying to make roads out of the thing.

  • But it still doesn't address the biggest issue with renewables: how to store all that power generated after the Sun sets and the wind conditions aren't optimum. We need as much research into developing cheaper means of power storage before renewables become REALLY viable.

  • Solar panels are going up on roof tops at a fast rate in Australia. Some government subsidy and no snow to deal with.

    The all come with an inverter that pushes excess power back to the grid.

    They are profitable because of power saved, at retail price which is about 4 times wholesale prices.

    No idea why you would want some sort of centeralised control.

    • P.S. Storage batteries are not economical yet. For the individual household, they might be worthwhile soon, because the are saving the purchase of electricity at the retail price, not the wholesale price.

      For large scale they are nonsense. We still produce most of our day time power by coal, so no storage necessary. Eventually we would need more storage, for which pumped hydro looks good. But it is unlikely that Australia will ever actually reduce its carbon emissions so that is academic.

      We like it hot

  • by HotNeedleOfInquiry ( 598897 ) on Saturday December 14, 2019 @11:25PM (#59519934)
    Consumers convert to solar because it's increasingly cheaper than utility Utilities raise rates because less customers to share the costs Goto Start
  • Nothing virtual about it, distributed power plant would have been a better name.
    The term "virtual power plant" is well established in the industry. That is a virtual power plant and not a distributed one ... what exactly would a distributed plant be?

    The point is in day ahead planning, the whole thing is considered to be one plant. Depending on forecasts, they use a typical "load curve" to make a prognosis what this "virtual plant" will be producing the next day, at which hour, usually actually in quarter

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