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US Report Finds Sky Is the Limit For Geothermal Energy Beneath Us (arstechnica.com) 154

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: Geothermal power sources come in many forms, and they're typically much more subtle than steam shooting out of the ground. In reality, geothermal energy could be a big player in our future mix. That is made clear by the U.S. Department of Energy's recently released "GeoVision" report. The report follows similar evaluations of wind, solar, and hydropower energy and leans on information from national labs and other science agencies. It summarizes what we know about the physical resources in the U.S. and also examines the factors that have been limiting geothermal's deployment. Overall, the report shows that we could do a whole lot more with geothermal energy -- both for generating electricity and for heating and cooling -- than we currently do.

There are opportunities to more than double the amount of electricity generated at conventional types of hydrothermal sites, where wells can easily tap into hot water underground. That's economical on the current grid. But the biggest growth potential, according to the report, is in so-called "enhanced geothermal systems." These involve areas where the temperatures are hot but the bedrock lacks enough fractures and pathways for hot water to circulate freely -- or simply lacks the water entirely. Advancing enhanced geothermal techniques alone could produce 45 gigawatts of electricity by 2050. Add in the more conventional plants, and you're at 60 gigawatts -- 26 times more than current geothermal generation. And in a scenario where natural gas prices go up, making geothermal even more competitive, we could double that to 120 gigawatts. That would be fully 16 percent of the total projected 2050 generation in the U.S.
The report also estimates that installations of traditional ground-source heat pumps, which circulate fluid through loops in the ground to provide cooling in the summer and heating in the winter, could be increased 14 times over, to 28 million homes by 2050, "covering 23 percent of national residential demand." When factoring in the limitations for how quickly the market could realistically change, the number only goes down to 19 million homes -- still a massive increase.

Meanwhile, district heating systems, where a single, large geothermal installation pipes heat to all the buildings in an area, could be more widely deployed to more than 17,000 locations, covering heating needs for 45 million homes.
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US Report Finds Sky Is the Limit For Geothermal Energy Beneath Us

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  • by thesjaakspoiler ( 4782965 ) on Tuesday June 11, 2019 @11:39PM (#58748216)
    to make this a viable option. Decisions aren't made on the basis what's best for the environment but on what's in it for the politicians on both left and right. Coal, fossil fuel and nuclear energy is backed by big coorperations who can supply the needed campaign funds to the politicians, so we'll be stuck with those for a while.
    • by kenwd0elq ( 985465 ) <kenwd0elq@engineer.com> on Tuesday June 11, 2019 @11:50PM (#58748238)

      That's true for ANY infrastructure. Glenn Reynolds often decries this or that development concept as having "insufficient opportunities for graft".

      As contrasted to California's "High Speed Rail" project, which is COMPLETELY driven by graft.

      • "As contrasted to California's "High Speed Rail" project, which is COMPLETELY driven by graft."

        Surely greed, sloppy thinking, etc,etc,etc also play a roll. I can understand, and completely empathize with the desire to get out of Modesto as quickly as possible. But I think I'd probably like to go someplace other than Bakersfield or Fresno. And I'm not sure why Greyhound speeds aren't more than adequate.

        Seems to me that any realistic HSR project in California should connect the downtowns (such as they are)

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
        • California is effectively a one party state. The problem with the HSR project, besides the graft, has been that the people pushing it claimed it would cost much, much less than it really would cost (most likely figuring that once you sunk a shit-ton of money in, politicians would keep throwing money at it until it was done).

        • by Jack9 ( 11421 )

          > It's corruption that means CAHSR hasn't been built.

          The bids were never realistic. This wasn't broken by graft, it was a non-starter (note the cost of the Seattle SR 99 Tunnel). The costs for many of the segments were easily calculable, but were not accurate. Claiming that graft broke it after the multiple voter approvals of free construction money, is revisionist.

    • If you can't think of a way to make bribe money building geothermal plants, you seriously have a lack of creativity or you are altogether too honest. You don't even have to build the plant.
    • by jabuzz ( 182671 )

      Back in the 1980's I read a New Scientist article where the USGS had a report that if around 1% of the geothermal energy 1km below the USA was turned into electricity it would be enough power for over 100 years. That was over 30 years ago and drilling technology is way way better today.

      • Back in the 1980's I read a New Scientist article where the USGS had a report that if around 1% of the geothermal energy 1km below the USA was turned into electricity it would be enough power for over 100 years. That was over 30 years ago and drilling technology is way way better today.

        If I recall correctly, one of the big issues is that the pipes carrying steam or water get gunked up pretty quickly. A lot of dissolved minerals in the water, especially when used this way.

        • by skids ( 119237 )

          That's why Geothermal plants should be closed loop systems... but that moderately increases the up-front cost, so there's less money left over for graft.

          • by Shotgun ( 30919 )

            For oil wells, the drill is a pipe that mud is pumped down and out the end to provide for lubrication. If drilling for thermal, all they'd have to do is provide for two additional passages: one for pumping water down, and the other for returning steam. The closed loop should actually be technically simple.

            • For oil wells, the drill is a pipe that mud is pumped down and out the end to provide for lubrication.

              When you're drilling, yes. But in most cases you then "complete" the well, lining it with pipe all the way down, and install one or several strings of production tubing into the well, latching into settings on the inside of the liner pipe. In most cases you'd have a production tubing (oil or gas to surface) and a string for "killing" the well by pumping high-density fluid into the wellbore. So conventional

    • to make this a viable option. Decisions aren't made on the basis what's best for the environment but on what's in it for the politicians on both left and right. Coal, fossil fuel and nuclear energy is backed by big coorperations who can supply the needed campaign funds to the politicians, so we'll be stuck with those for a while.

      The drilling offers opportunities for a politician to get his baksheesh. The buildings and any turbines as well.

      Geothermal leaves a lot of minerals on parts and inside piping, so there will have to be a replacement stream.

      There is plenty of corruptortunity here.

    • Coal is so bad that they can no longer afford the bribes necessary to keep this expensive, horrible pollution heavy energy source

      Nuclear is so scary that they can no longer afford the bribes necessary to keep this cheap, safe energy source around

      Oil is profitable enough to bribe the officials to ignore their moderately polluting industry going.

      Natural gas is easily profitable enough to keep their cheap and low-pollution industry going, they really don't need to bribe anyone.

      Solar and wind are profitable e

  • by kenwd0elq ( 985465 ) <kenwd0elq@engineer.com> on Tuesday June 11, 2019 @11:44PM (#58748222)

    Geothermal energy is a really good idea, complicated by the fact that it doesn't work well in the actual Earth. The pipes are subject to terrific corrosion, and the maintenance costs are unsustainable..

    • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Tuesday June 11, 2019 @11:46PM (#58748228)

      Geothermal energy is a really good idea, complicated by the fact that it doesn't work well in the actual Earth. The pipes are subject to terrific corrosion, and the maintenance costs are unsustainable..

      It seems like it works out pretty well in Iceland, although there they have much easier access to multiple geothermal sources... I could see a lot of places where access to that is more impractical and would cost way too much.

      • In Iceland you don't have to drill very far to reach usable geothermal sources, so needing to drill new boreholes every few years as the old ones plug up is not a problem. This article draws a map of what American geothermal provinces would look like if we were willing to go down 7 km each time. Even that shows plentiful geothermal only in the West. And every new borehole is another 7 km.

    • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 11, 2019 @11:54PM (#58748242)

      Geothermal works fine. I live in hawaii. The puna geothermal plant generated 35 MW day in and day out for decades. Last years eruption shut it down, but it should be back up by end of year. The company has been able to turn a profit for decades.

      • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @12:45AM (#58748354)

        Geothermal works fine. I live in hawaii. The puna geothermal plant generated 35 MW day in and day out for decades.

        That is nice, but is only about 1% the output of a large nuke or gas plant.

        Also, electricity on the Big Island is 42 cents/kwh. Operating profitably at that price doesn't mean much. On the mainland, electricity can be generated from gas for 3 cents/kwh.

        • by rtb61 ( 674572 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @01:35AM (#58748448) Homepage

          Geothermal is fine where geothermal exists naturally but not where it does not exist. So cold water goes down, gets hot and dissolves what ever molecules it can and brings them to the surface, heavy metals and toxic chemicals, as they come up, well they leak all over and contaminate ground water. Not a problem in natural locales, as they are already naturally polluted and not healthy for life already but in clean environments, quite problematic.

          Geo thermal could be mass used in dangerous locales to cool them and generate energy which is then conducted to distant locales. Geothermal should not be used where is there is currently no water going down and coming up, full of dissolved chemicals, past the deep ground water and past the water table.

          Geothermal should only be used where the soil and ground water are already contaminated.

          • by Anonymous Coward

            That's actually not really true of modern systems at all, they have the layers sealed and they monitor for contaminants. You're referring to a few places where the installations are either early trials or failing systems with failing topography.

            It certainly contaminates a hell of a lot less than fracking, which you're getting natural gas from EVERYWHERE along the US water table except where specifically banned BY DEMOCRATS to protect water resources.

            If you want to pretend to be against Geothermal because o

          • by MrKaos ( 858439 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @08:01AM (#58749168) Journal
            Geothermal is a closed loop system.

            Geothermal should not be used where is there is currently no water going down and coming up, full of dissolved chemicals, past the deep ground water and past the water table.

            Geothermal should only be used where the soil and ground water are already contaminated.

            Assessments of closed loop geothermal systems [osti.gov] have been performed. Studies have been done on the efficiency [sciencedirect.com] and optimization [sciencedirect.com] of closed loop Geothermal systems.

            Geothermal is a perfect base load and peak following grid input because the heat is always in the ground and available. It's the perfect complement to wind and solar.

          • Yep. At Calpine Geothermal in The Geysers, CA they created a super fund site by putting the slurry of metals and radioactives pressure-washed off of the turbines into drums and burying them in a field just off of Butts Canyon road, out of Middletown. The site is easily identified by a cyclone fence with big fat governmental no trespassing signs, apparently surrounding a whole lot of nothing. And because it's a government project, they planted a bunch of invasive and fragile eucalyptus trees along the road b

            • that is not waste. That is a wasted opportunity. That 'waste', like nuclear waste, needs to be processed and all of the elements separated. There is loads of concentrated elements in there.
        • by Can'tNot ( 5553824 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @08:17AM (#58749226)
          The parent was responding to the claim above that geothermal power plants can't work over long periods of time without a great deal of expensive maintenance. Regardless of how large this specific plant is, the fact that it has been operating over a long period of time without a great deal of expensive maintenance serves to contradict that claim.

          The fact that a large nuclear or gas plant is larger than this geothermal plant is an irrelevant change of subject.

          If you wish to start an argument over the relative costs of power generation by different means, then you'll need to first address the fact that the US Energy Information Administration rates geothermal as the single cheapest source of power. By a good margin. Below wind and natural gas, and way below nuclear.
      • by Shotgun ( 30919 )

        Great! All we have to do is transform the rest of the places where people live into places where lava periodically bubbles up over the surface, vs drilling down half a mile to where the rocks start getting hot enough to be useful. No differences there. . . AT ALL.

    • "Geothermal energy is a really good idea, complicated by the fact that it doesn't work well in the actual Earth."

      Perhaps a bit harsh. It's more like a really good idea that needs a **LOT** of R&D before it should be widely deployed. Not only does one have to worry about the lifetime of the underground pipes, but also about what exactly happens when they fail in 20 or 200 or 2000 years. e.g. Will they turn out to be conduits to the surface for stuff we'd just as soon stayed deep underground like Mercu

    • Add to the fact that the best geothermal sites are usually on top of smoldering volcanoes.
    • by aepervius ( 535155 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @03:41AM (#58748672)

      Geothermal energy is a really good idea, complicated by the fact that it doesn't work well in the actual Earth. The pipes are subject to terrific corrosion, and the maintenance costs are unsustainable..

      Yeah totally uneconomical. Nobody use it . Nope. Noper.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      Ho, wait. No. They do ! they generate 95% of their home heating and 25% of their electricity with geothermal power. I have the nagging feeling you over exaggerate the corrosive issue.

      • Geothermal heating using shallow heat pipes is highly viable, although frankly I'd rather not live in a volcano field. And that's where geothermal of any sort is viable. In the USA, geothermal is simply not cost-effective. Even the calpine geothermal visitors' center had to install solar panels on the roof to ensure continual clean power. And it's located in the most geothermally active region of the crust...

        • hold on. The same issue that you gripe about with the the Field is going on with iceland. They have the same corrosion ( probably worse; lave is not smooth), but now you claim that it is OK because it is shallow? PLEASE.
    • by Maelwryth ( 982896 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @06:45AM (#58748966) Homepage Journal
      Seems to work OK in New Zealand. It generates around 13% of the countries electricity each year [wikipedia.org].
    • The pipes are subject to terrific corrosion, and the maintenance costs are unsustainable.

      Just use PVC pipes, that don't corrode -- duh. Oh, wait...

  • but who's gonna pay for it?
    • by Anonymous Coward

      but who's gonna pay for it?

      You would, just like you pay for any other energy you buy. I bet you already knew that answer.

    • by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @12:19AM (#58748300) Journal

      The same way anything is paid for in a free market. Capital is pooled, costs are amortized over time, investors get ROI, and if an installation is built well enough after that you're looking at maintenance costs and eventual replacement. It's a way of building things that has worked pretty damned well since the 18th century.

      • Capital is pooled

        Made up, you mean. There's bound to be a bank involved, which just makes up money that never existed, and "lends" it out. The usury for the loan is quite real though, and is forced upon society to pay "back".

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        The same way anything is paid for in a free market. Some rich asshats convince some banks to secure them a loan based on a pie in the sky idea and pretend they are an actual company. Shares are sold to "investors" who then flip those shares right away to suckers who think this is an actual company. The asshats clear out, dropping responsibility on the CEO and the Board along with a fuck ton of debt from starting the "company" (all paid to other companies owned by the asshats).
        See? It's so simple. All you ne

    • The taxpayer and the customer will pay for it, whether or not they are the same person. And they would get more for their money with solar or wind.

  • And the earthquakes? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @12:24AM (#58748308)

    I'm all about green energy but I have yet to read anything about eliminating the earthquakes that geothermal energy causes. Geothermal is basically injecting water into a hot chunk of the Earth's crust. The predictable result is the water is heated and the Earth is cooled. All the thermal expansion and contraction causes earthquakes and despite our investigations into reducing earthquakes, [sciencedaily.com] they will keep happening without significant advancements in our ability to drill deep into the Earth's crust.

    The sky is the limit... for the damage that geothermal plants can do, just ask South Korea. [wikipedia.org]

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @04:25AM (#58748748) Homepage Journal

      It depends where you do it. If you avoid doing it near major faults then the earthquakes are small. Do it far from populated areas and people won't even notice.

      It's not ideal but all energy generation has some impact on the surrounding area. Geothermal isn't suitable for everywhere, but is fine in some places.

      The earthquake in Korea is unlikely to have been anything to do with the geothermal plant, BTW. Even the Wikipedia article you linked to says that.

      • All wrong. No major faults run through The Geysers, CA, where the USA has its geothermal facility. Yet pumping secondary treated sewage into the ground has dramatically increased local seismicity to the point that a fund was created and many millions of dollars have been paid out.

        Solar has no notable effect on the surrounding area. Wind either. (There is a minor localized downwind heating effect, which rapidly dissipates.) Geothermal is dumb except for shallow heat pipes, but living where those work is dumb

    • by vtcodger ( 957785 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @05:08AM (#58748830)

      "I'm all about green energy but I have yet to read anything about eliminating the earthquakes that geothermal energy causes."

      Not really an issue most places with reasonable care. The problems in Oklahoma weren't caused by the fracked gas wells per se. They were caused by subsequent disposing of used fracking fluids into a sandstone layer -- The Arbuckle Formation -- below all of the hydrocarbon producing beds in the region without worrying about how the Arbuckle was able to suck up all that fluid and where it was going. Apparently it was going into earthquake faults. There's a substantial difference between using underground pipes for heat exchange and using them for fluid disposal.

      It probably is true that geothermal wells may be imprudent in some earthquake prone areas like coastal California if for no other reason than if any one of the thousands of faults in the area slips (which happens all the time) and does surface damage (less frequent, but not uncommon), you're probably going to get sued. It is California after all.

  • I saw a program on geothermal energy years ago, It works on the heat pump principal. The guy said the problem is not that cant find enough heat, its that they can't get enough cold for the heat pump!
  • by sethmeisterg ( 603174 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @03:18AM (#58748624)
    Freedom Heat!
  • by WindBourne ( 631190 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @04:34AM (#58748768) Journal
    Simply require that all new buildings of 5 stories and under to have enough on-site un-subsidized AE to => the HVAC watts.

    With that single requirement, we get AE high prices, esp. solar, to work to solve multiple issues. Basically, the high price of solar will encourage builders to switch to better forms of insulation (such as aerogel windows) and of course, better forms of HVAC, such as geo-thermal.

    Also, the real heat loss come from rentals that do not bother to upgrade insulation, HVAC, etc. About the only way to improve these other than by a whole lot of regulations, is to require that landlords start paying part of the HVAC costs. By requiring an increasing cost of the HVAC to go to the landlord, they will include it in the rent, until the point it is actually cheaper for the landlord to put on more insulation or AE. Otherwise, they will lose customers to newer cheaper low-hvac cost buildings, or updated ones.
    • to require that landlords start paying part of the HVAC costs

      Or, more simply and freely, require them to quote the HVAC/electric bill for past years along with the rent, so potential tenants know what they are getting into.

  • by ruddk ( 5153113 ) on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @04:45AM (#58748788)

    I know that in some places, it is the right solution.
    My problem is that I have seen how when it have been privatised, those in charge use the fact that their customers are forced to buy from them to increase the price to fund investments in expanding their business into other areas that the heating customers have no interest in or benefit of.

    • by Anonymous Coward

      That is still better than being nationalized and allowing the infrastructure to crumble without upgrades all while raising the price because there is no competition.

  • Does anyone know if there are any potential unintended consequences for this? Suppose we start sucking power from the earth at a pace in the TW or PW range? Would this affect the earth in 5, 10, or 100 years? When humans started burning coal and oil over a century ago, I doubt anyone anticipated global warming.

    I never formally studied physics beyond the introductory level, so forgive my ignorance. How does thermodynamics play into this? Once a few PJ of energy are sucked out of the earth, how is it replenis

    • Does anyone know if there are any potential unintended consequences for this?

      It's easy to lose sight of the fact that Earth is pretty big when compared to us measly humans. There's far more energy there than we could reasonably (or economically) extract even on time scales of a century or more. This ties in with your second question of how is the energy replenished. There are three main methods causing heat within the planet: nuclear decay, friction, and gravity. The decay of naturally-occurring radioisotopes releases heat and will continue to do so for thousands of years. Fri

  • The title is clever, sky is the limit...for something deep underground.

    We also would have accepted "Man finds hot hole; pushes his fluid injector in deeper and deeper"

  • from one system to dump in another never had any bad consequences.
  • Oil was a great idea 100 years ago. Once we scaled it, we saw the error of our ways.

    How would the Earth react if we sucked 50 years worth of oil energy out of it via geo-thermal? Anyone think there would be an effect?

  • For underground holes?

  • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Wednesday June 12, 2019 @09:25AM (#58749456) Homepage Journal

    "But the biggest growth potential, according to the report, is in so-called "enhanced geothermal systems."

    I've ranted before about how the generation facility at The Geysers is perpetually over budget, under specified production, has produced a super fund site and is working on another, and how pumping secondary treated sewage into the ground to keep the steam going has dramatically increased seismic activity to the point that a fund had to be established to pay regional homeowners for the damage to their homes, which has paid out hundreds of millions of dollars to date. Geothermal is a gigantic boondoggle, at least in the USA.

    But now they want to open up new geothermal sources that are in hard rock? That's going to require fracking. Fracking is where they pump refinery wastes into the ground, then impact them in order to shatter the rock. Just in case any of you were confused about what "fracking fluid" is. (It's obvious when you look at the list of compounds in fracking fluid what it is.) This itself causes quakes, and also can create new means of ingress into aquifers which can cause contamination, not least with the fracking fluid itself.

    Deep rock fracking was tried before, in France I think? I'm on a tablet right now, it's hard to look things up in a timely fashion. Anyway it was for geothermal and it created a severe quake. The same company proposed doing a similar deed near The Geysers for the purpose of building a new facility (that part of California is the world's most geothermally active region) but they were miraculously shot down by the typically uninvolved locals.

    So in summary, geothermal in the USA is already FUCKING HORRIBLE, and exploiting these other geothermal sources would also likely be more of the same.

  • More than half of the heat in the earth's core is from active nuclear fission. So technically, the majority of the heat obtained from geothermal is the result of nuclear fission from an enormous reactor.

  • It's just indirect nuclear power, as are solar, wind, hydro, and fossil fuels.

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