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Power Transportation

Is Elon Musk Greatly Exaggerating Tesla's Battery Technology? (bloomberg.com) 266

"Tesla's newest promises break the laws of batteries," writes Bloomberg. Long-time Slashdot reader rudy_wayne summarizes their report. "Elon Musk knows how to make promises. Even by his own standards, the promises made last week while introducing two new Tesla vehicles...are monuments of envelope pushing. To deliver, according to close observers of battery technology, Tesla would have to far exceed what is currently thought possible." The Tesla Semi, which Musk claims can haul 80,000 pounds at highway speeds for 500 miles, then recharge 400 miles of range in 30 minutes, would require "a charging system that's 10 times more powerful than one of the fastest battery-charging networks on the road today -- Tesla's own Superchargers."

The Tesla Roadster is promised to be the quickest production car ever built. But that achievement would mean squeezing into its tiny frame a battery twice as powerful as the largest battery currently available in any electric car. These claims are so far beyond current industry standards for electric vehicles that they would require either advances in battery technology or a new understanding of how batteries are put to use, said Sam Jaffe, battery analyst for Cairn Energy Research in Boulder, Colorado.

But Jaffe reaches an interesting conclusion. "I don't think they're lying. I just think they left something out of the public reveal that would have explained how these numbers work."
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Is Elon Musk Greatly Exaggerating Tesla's Battery Technology?

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  • by LynnwoodRooster ( 966895 ) on Saturday November 25, 2017 @06:39PM (#55622247) Journal
    He has to do something to keep people investing in his company, and keep the stock price high. Looking at the fundamentals, it's a crazyy buy for the stock. Never turned a profit, losing billions per year, cash-on-hand to keep running until summer next year - and massive commitments for new products and deliveries they have to meet. Add in the track record of never coming close to those delivery numbers - and it's crazy anyone buys the stock. So Musk has to put on the PT Barnum act and drum up more support so they can turn to the last option they have to raise more capital - sell more stock.
    • by rtb61 ( 674572 )

      It's a new company, with new capital investment, if Tesla declared any profits and paid taxes on them, the accountants in charge deserve to be beaten to death with the tax code books. People who buy Tesla stock need to know fundamentals because it is a new company. The tax deductible depreciations on new buildings, plant and equipment are massive as is research, design and development. It would doubt they would generate any taxable profit for about a decade and them either major expansion or tax bills woul

      • by haruchai ( 17472 )

        "It's a new company, with new capital investment, if Tesla declared any profits and paid taxes on them, the accountants in charge deserve to be beaten to death with the tax code books. People who buy Tesla stock need to know fundamentals because it is a new company"

        The problem is they're burning huge amount of cash relative to sales and in one of the most cash-intensive & regulated businesses in the world. The bleeding can't go on much longer and their liabilities are adding up quickly. Not making money

    • If Musk were trying to keep the Tesla stock price high, he could've achieved that more easily by simply not recently going on record telling the media that he thinks Tesla stock is currently overpriced: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/1... [cnbc.com]

      The fact that you think a guy who shouts to the media that his stock is overvalued is putting on a PT Barnum act to raise the stock price shows that you've drifted off hopelessly into conspiracy land.

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      In the past 8 years Tesla gross revenue has increased by a factor of 400. This is not a software business they can just make new cars appear out of thin air with a license key. They have to add factory space, but tools, hire tons of people and of course, buy a lot more parts and raw materials to make more cars.

      Expanding a business like Tesla is a HUGELY capital intensive prospect. It's going to be a money loser until they grow to a size where growth starts to flatten out and scale starts to dominate.

    • by Gorobei ( 127755 )

      Yeah, it's pretty insane. Our Thanksgiving dinner of technologists, financiers, accountants, and lawyers figured he has a 1%-2% chance of success without giant government subsidies. We also estimated it wasn't a good idea to short the stock: there's too much idiot money out there.

      He keeps missing his own production targets, he has big negative cashflow, his tooling plan for mass market cars is bizarre to the point of crazy.

      He should just call his next car the "DeLorean, Mark II." It's cool, fast, uses high

  • by alexhs ( 877055 ) on Saturday November 25, 2017 @06:41PM (#55622261) Homepage Journal

    Is Elon Musk Greatly Exaggerating

    Yes.

    • You mean Elon isn't going to take me to Mars for $199.98?

      I am shocked ... shocked ...

  • by b0s0z0ku ( 752509 ) on Saturday November 25, 2017 @06:43PM (#55622273)
    For trucks and buses that can follow the wires. They can be powered and "recharged" as they move, as well as following the wires automatically. Also, electrified freight rail. "Charging" vehicles while on the go is a solved problem and doesn't require production of large, environmentally-costly batteries.
    • by Speare ( 84249 )
      Last year some cities actually talking about requiring trucks to use catenary (overhead) power lines in the city, like many city buses and streetcar trolleys do. But the energy capacity to feed all those rails looks to be in doubt.

      Trying to recharge vehicle batteries wirelessly like a huge Qi charger is even more lossy. The inefficiencies would kill any such plan.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Rail is just much more efficient than rubber tyres on tarmac for moving heavy loads. What we really need is a system that efficiently moves stuff between hubs via rail and then transfers contains onto trucks for local delivery. The problem in the past has always been the speed and cost of loading/unloading, but it seems like these days a robot could do it pretty efficiently.

      Of course we destroyed a lot of the rail infrastructure that could have been used for this so it would need to be rebuilt now.

      • by swb ( 14022 )

        They have these retractable rail bogeys for railroad maintenance vehicles that let pickups and larger trucks actually drive on the train tracks.

        I'm curious if they could do the same thing for semi-truck trailers and make them into rail cars. It would probably make the most sense if the rail wheels were somehow part of the existing trailer suspension, but I don't know how well that would play with the existing trailer wheel spacing and of course you would need to do something for front bogeys where semi-tra

        • The short answer is that we load whole trailers with their wheels on them onto trains because it makes more sense than trying to create a new lightweight ISO container standard that will only be used on the backs of pickup trucks.

  • by Rei ( 128717 ) on Saturday November 25, 2017 @06:56PM (#55622319) Homepage

    With a title like that, you know the article is going to be good for a laugh. Sort of like people who say "physics says..." who wouldn't even recognize the formulae that apply to the problem in question if you wrote them out in front of them.

    1) Passengers in the Roadster noted how high its floor is. Aka: it's a double-high pack. Tesla already makes 100kWh packs for the S and X that are single-high. They may need to extend a bit further forward and back because the Roadster is a bit smaller of a footprint (on S and X they only slightly overlap the wheelbase, and on Model 3 they're inside the wheelbase entirely), but there's nothing at all implausible about 200kWh in such a form factor.

    2) The megacharger charge port has been filmed by KMan [youtube.com]. It has 8 giant pins in what appear to be a 2x4 arrangement, with ground and control pins likely clustered in a side slot on the right. These pins are much larger than those on the supercharger port, and there's a lot more of them. Also note the 2x4 arrangement: there appear to be four separate battery packs, and there 4 separate drive units. It appears that bloody everything on this vehicle is redundant (one assumes that there's at least a charge balancing system between the packs).

    3) The means to provide the power to the megachargers is very, very simple: they're battery buffered. Tesla has always been clear on this; they're not drawing that power straight from the grid. More to the point, Semi uses the same battery chemistry as Tesla's grid-battery buffers (NMC). It's an extremely durable chemistry.

    4) The article is very reasonable in its assessment of the battery capacity on the 500mi semi - they say 600-1000kWh (I've been working on the assumption of 900kWh, but it could be a bit less). Their estimate on the price, however, assumes that batteries cost $100-$170/kWh retail. Yet the raw material costs for said cells is only about $50/kWh - and that's currently at "spiked" prices which can be expected to drop as the mining industry readjusts to the new demand curve (historic prices would be more like $35/kWh). The whole point of the Gigafactory was to make li-ion batteries - finally - get closer to the cost of the raw materials that go into them. These numbers simply suggest that the Gigafactory has done exactly what it was designed to do.

    5) Their estimate of the weight of the battery pack is probably correct (around 5 tonnes). However, in addition to the weight savings from using electric drive units vs. a big diesel / transmission / pollution controls / etc, Tesla always builds light. Don't expect the primary structure to be made of mild steel on this one; expect UHS steel, with 4-5 times the tensile strength, for example. Guillen stated in Europe that it has the same payload capacity as a diesel semi (aka, the tractor is no heavier), and that's probably correct.

    Or, to put it another way: none of the "experts" expected the Model 3 SR to come in at almost exactly the same weight as the BMW 330i, with the same performance, more standard features, and a cheaper price. It did. And the LR isn't much heavier than a 330i, and well faster (can't wait to see the specs on the performance package!)

    6) Charge rates of 7 cents per kWh: First off, their estimate that charging should cost 40 cents per kWh is just absurd. Pure nonsense. Even Tesla's current generation of superchargers is half that ($0,20/kWh), and they have to pay demand charges. That said, 7 cents per kWh comes across as extremely ambitious... until you start looking into it [slashdot.org]. And then you realize how much of a game changer it is that Tesla is doing here.

    • by Rei ( 128717 ) on Saturday November 25, 2017 @07:09PM (#55622381) Homepage

      Oh, one more thing: expect to see things get more impressive with time. For example: a lot of people are expecting the handling to be poor on the Roadster because the battery pack will weigh slightly over a tonne (at current cell energy densities). Sure, Tesla will be going all out to make the rest of the car light, but still, that's a lot of weight underneath you, right?

      But there's one thing people are forgetting: torque steering. The rear wheels are each driven by separate motors, each hooked up to wheels with very sticky tires. You can have one side going full thrust forward and the other side going full thrust in reverse if you wanted. You could make the car pirouette in place if you wanted. Computer controlled J turns, precise drift control, etc? They're only limited by their programming; there's a lot more potential here than you can achieve with just differential braking.

      And we already know that Tesla is working heavily on torque steering; this isn't something that's going to come as a surprise to them. Torque steering is the principle behind the anti-jackknifing approach on Semi.

      • So, you're saying that the cars will be better, and that will make people buy them? Wow. I thought we had to ram electric cars down people's throats by ruining their livelihoods with punitive taxes on regular cars. You mean there was another way all along? Weird.
    • by Guspaz ( 556486 )

      Can Tesla just import the power? We (Quebec) exports dozens of TWh per year at prices substantially below 7 US cents per kilowatt hour. Is there any reason why Tesla can't just make a deal with Hydro Quebec to import power to the Eastern interconnect and pay the US utilities for transport?

      • by Rei ( 128717 )

        It's certainly possible. But the big thing going on here is that solar and wind power have gotten super cheap.... with the caveat that you have to also pay for an expensive battery buffer or peaking plant to go with them. But here, A) Tesla has clearly gotten battery prices way down, and B) the stations need a battery buffer either way; it's a two-for-one.

  • Not my first thought, but then seeing:

    But Jaffe reaches an interesting conclusion. "I don't think they're lying. I just think they left something out of the public reveal that would have explained how these numbers work."

    So maybe it's Betteridge after all.

  • So... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by xlsior ( 524145 ) on Saturday November 25, 2017 @07:02PM (#55622347)
    ...a standard car charging point isn't powerful enough to charge a semi in a reasonable time?

    Instead of immediately accusing them of witchcraft, perhaps... they just figured out a way to bundle multiple 'standard' standard car-chargers in parallel, and use those to charge separate battery packs inside a semi, greatly reducing the total recharge time?
    • by AHuxley ( 892839 )
      1+ for more voltage and getting the exact power needed to many more battery packs that are 30 minute charge ready.
      The city power side can do is well understood, the truck should just be a lot more well understood battery packs ready to recharge in a set time.
  • by jjeffries ( 17675 ) on Saturday November 25, 2017 @07:36PM (#55622445)

    It's bigger on the inside.

  • From the specs, it looks like these two vehicles use solid-state lithium batteries, which are also being put into some other high-end EVs currently in development. Next question.

  • by RhettLivingston ( 544140 ) on Saturday November 25, 2017 @08:18PM (#55622621) Journal

    I'm betting the eight "pins" on the port aren't pins. They are sockets with two contact surfaces.

    Eight 120 kWH batteries (five in the 300-mile version) made using the newer 2170 cells wouldn't be much of a stretch of the current technology. This would provide 960 kWH total which is within the range of estimated needs.

    Tesla reuses the same AC/DC converter in their superchargers that they use in their vehicles. Current superchargers use 12 of these 11kW AC/DC modules to provide about 130kW (after losses).

    If you go with the same theme but update it to use 12 of the 20kW AC/DC modules now used in the model S, the existing supercharger design could be trivially increased to about 216kW after losses.

    Eight 216kW superchargers operating simultaneously could deliver 1,728kW - more than enough to provide a 400-mile charge in 30 minutes.

  • Past behavior. (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Saturday November 25, 2017 @09:44PM (#55622971)

    The best indicator of future behavior is past behavior. Has Elon Musk greatly exaggerated Tesla's battery technology in the past? From what I've read, Elon Musk has always ended up providing what he claimed albeit a bit behind schedule and over budget. However, once the baseline product is established it seems to improve over time. Jaffe's conclusion that this are factors he is unaware of is a logical one.

  • "But that achievement would mean squeezing into its tiny frame a battery twice as powerful as the largest battery currently available in any electric car."

    Why? A Bugatti Veyron at full speed empties its 100 liter gas tank in 8 minutes.

  • Has anyone accounted for new battery technology developed with the help of the inventor of the original lithium-ion battery technology? https://news.utexas.edu/2017/0... [utexas.edu]
  • by lxrocks ( 1205598 ) on Sunday November 26, 2017 @03:47PM (#55625983)
    I've been waiting 5+ months for Tesla to fulfill an order for a Powerwall2. No ETA on the delivery. Plenty of excuses that don't really explain why. So there is a lot of Hype from Tesla/Musk but can they really deliver? Forget about battery technology of the future if they can't meet the demands of today.

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