'Of Course We Are In a Post-PC World,' Says Ray Ozzie 399
An anonymous reader writes "Speaking at a tech conference in Seattle this week, former Microsoft Chief Software Architect Ray Ozzie had some interesting things to say about the state of the computing industry. 'People argue about "are we in a post-PC world?" Why are we arguing? Of course we are in a post-PC world. That doesn't mean the PC dies, that just means that the scenarios that we use them in, we stop referring to them as PCs, we refer to them as other things.' Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception. 'If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future. ... It's a world of phones and pads and devices of all kinds, and our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.'"
A Brave New World (Score:5, Funny)
of greasy fingerprints.
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Insightful)
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I agree with this sentiment. I do dislike how my phone screen looks after a short use. I am repulsed by others' devices too - they make mine look like it just came out of the sanitizer by comparison.
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It's not the touching of something riddled with germs that's the problem. It's actually seeing what's on the screen between the smears and smudges that's at issue. I don't think most of us are going to be terrified at the thought of germs from someone else. We'd simply like to see what's on the screen. Hence the comments on clean screens, etc.
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Insightful)
Exactly. I hate people getting their greasy fingerprints all over my computer screen almost as much as I'd hate them taking a dump in my kitchen sink. Separation of input and output has its advantages...
Oleophobic screens only work so well, someone needs to come up with a better solution (and then a better garbage disposal).
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Insightful)
Have you tried screen wipes...
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Funny)
Yeah, they keep getting stuck in the rotor blades...
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Interesting)
Yeah, but haven't you noticed its better when someone takes a dump on your ipad compared to your keyboard? Much easier to clean up in my experience.
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Funny)
You don't have a small kid, do you?
Re:A Brave New World (Score:4, Funny)
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Informative)
Re:A Brave New World (Score:4, Insightful)
It's been a long time since I tried to read my keyboard.
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My washable keyboard didn't cost that much more than a regular and I just stick it in the shower once a week to keep it looking nice.
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Funny)
Re:A Brave New World (Score:5, Interesting)
No. I tried several brands of those and you are right they are annoying to type on and I hated them all. This is the HP Washable keyboard [smartplanet.com] another bonus was that I used to have an ancient keyboard that I loved because it felt *solid* but I lost it when I moved out of my parents house 11 years ago. This is the first keyboard that I've owned since then that feels solid enough that I actually don't find myself wishing for my old keyboard.
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Not to mention (Score:3)
My Model M is full of enough marijuana crumbs to get an elephant high.
Now if you'll excuse me, I'm in the middle of rolling this blunt.
Re:A Brave New World (Score:4, Insightful)
And eyes ruined by squinting at tiny screens
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And ruined posture because you either have a vertical screen for readability that requires you to always have your arms extended (and slows you down because of the time to lift hands from the keyboard a lot), or you wind up hunched over the thing.
It might be nice for people who are doing certain kinds of photoshop work, or browsing the web - for those who write in any for a living, it's gonna suck.
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2c
-GiH
Ruhroh (Score:5, Funny)
"Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception."
They're doomed.
Re:Ruhroh (Score:5, Insightful)
I think Microsoft as a major player in the consumer market is probably going to fade. I still think they're going to be a major player in the medium-sized business and corporate world for some time to come. But as far as consumer devices go, they're so behind Apple and Android now that I just don't really see how they'll catch up.
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Re:Ruhroh (Score:4, Insightful)
I think a lot of Microsoft's success with consumer-grade PCs has been because of their dominance in the business world. You go out to buy a home PC, you want the same sort of OS and tools that you find on your work computer. But that's only a thin veneer, not an absolute requirement, and now that you have a generation of technology users who have no particular loyalty to Microsoft or to PCs in general, it no longer means very much at all.
Re:Ruhroh (Score:4, Interesting)
I think their dominance in the home is because for a while they were the only choice if you didn't want to pay $$$ for overpriced hardware and a crappy OS - they basically had no competition. A significant percentage of the working population with home computers doesn't actually sit all day at a desk staring at a computer monitor (especially 15-20 years ago when MS took over the home market).
Now that Apple has addressed those 2 issues (and just completely dominated in marketing and industrial design) the market has changed drastically...
Re:Ruhroh (Score:5, Interesting)
I think a lot of Microsoft's success with consumer-grade PCs has been because of their dominance in the business world. You go out to buy a home PC, you want the same sort of OS and tools that you find on your work computer.
I think it used to work that way. Back in the day, computers were new and expensive. People's first experience was what they used at work. When they bought their computer from home, they bought the same one they were used to. Note that the hobbyists, who had experience with computers outside business, overwhelmingly turned to the Commodores, Amigas, Apples, Spectrums, etc.
Now, though, people's first experience with computers is in their home. In fact, IT departments are seeing the opposite effect, where Apple users are demanding they be able to use the same system in business that they do at home. Now that computers are cheap, consumer items, instead of expensive business items slowly making a transition into the home, consumer experience is becoming more of a driving force than business experience.
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Apple market share for computers is about 14% right now. If 14% of your users are complaining that they want to use a Mac at work just like they do at home, they will pretty much be ignored and considered quite annoying by IT departments.
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Well, *someone* there gets consumers. Look at the Xbox as a response to the Playstation...
Re:Ruhroh (Score:4, Interesting)
"And I have an Xbox, ps3, and a wii"
Your example is irrelevant. You didn't choose.
Re:Ruhroh (Score:4, Insightful)
Considering the huge amounts of money Microsoft has thrown at its Xbox division, one could basically say they've purchased that market position. It has not translated into vast profits for Microsoft, and the obvious conclusion then becomes that for the bulk of the time the Xbox has been on the market, Microsoft has been selling it at a loss.
Now maybe, in pure numbers that is a meaningful sort of statement, but if I were an investor, I'd be asking myself "Why hasn't it paid for itself yet?" I'd being asking the same question of Zune and Microsoft's various failed attempts at creating a dominant web portal. And it's looking like various iterations of the Windows mobile platform are leading in the same direction.
At the end of the day, Microsofts fortunes are still tied to Windows and Exchange-Office, and where the big money in those divisions is in the corporate world. I'll wager a careful look would show you that the "Home" editions of Windows and Office probably do not make Microsoft any great profits at all, considering their OEM stuff is sold at a pretty steep discount as compared to the retail versions.
Re:Ruhroh (Score:5, Interesting)
Most businesses are not profitable when they start, and many have a business model of selling a loss leader for future profit. That's how the Playstation started, and for a while (until the PS3 fiasco) it was Sony's most profitable business.
The XBox 360 is only 5-6 years into its "10 year lifespan", and Microsoft has built a huge dedicated customer base with Live (40M paying Gold subscribers, many of whom, just like with Apple and iTunes are at least somewhat locked in with various DLC, games, movies, and gamer rating, etc). I think your information about the Xbox's profitability is way out of date - Xbox/entertainment now makes up about 20% of Microsoft's total revenue, compared to about 30% for its business division.
Wagering a careful look (ie a couple Google searches for quotes), from their last quarterly releases & analysis:
"Microsoft's strongest growth came from the Entertainment division where the Xbox resides, however. That group's revenue jumped 14 percent to $4.24 billion, a new high. The Xbox 360 installed base now totals approximately 66 million consoles and 18 million Kinect sensors, Microsoft said. Xbox Live now has 40 million members worldwide, an increase of 33 percent from the prior year period."
"Microsoft's fourth-quarter results showed an interesting shift, as Microsoft's Xbox business unit threatens to pass its Windows division in terms of revenue. If the current trends continue, Windows and its related businesses could rank fourth within the company, ahead of its perpetually money-losing online business."
I'm sure praising anything Microsoft has done in any way will get me modded down (I already see my first comment was "Overrated" and my 2nd "Underrated", nice!) - but you have to give some credit where it's due in this case, they stuck with it and finally figured out how to build a real business around the Xbox.
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Microsoft began work on Windows Vista, known at the time by its codename Longhorn, in May 2001
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Vista [wikipedia.org]
The first version released was Mac OS X Server 1.0 in 1999, and a desktop-oriented version, Mac OS X v10.0 "Cheetah" followed on March 24, 2001.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Os_x [wikipedia.org]
What was that about ignorance?
Re:Ruhroh (Score:5, Informative)
From what I can quickly find, Vista development started in May of 2001 [wikipedia.org], and OS X was announced in 1998 [wikipedia.org]. OS X's initial release was actually two months prior to Vista's development start, in March of 2001 [wikipedia.org].
Now, I'm sure we could trace bits of both OS's source back to NeXTSTEP and DOS (and likely earlier), but that's hardly relevant or meaningful.
Re:Ruhroh (Score:5, Interesting)
Vista was in the works before OSX was. I know ignorant Apple fan boys like to spread shit.
Great place for me to chime in. I use both OS's
TechRepublic had a bit about the Windows 8 consumer preview. On my Vista laptop, I figured I'd give it a try. Downloaded it, installed it. I chose the option that seemed safest.
After playing with it a while, and deciding that Windows 8 made Vista look like a well thought out system, I looked to see how to remove the preview. I didn't see anything. Then I went online, and saw that you don't install the freaking preview!
It takes your program folder, then renames it, to Programs.old, then installs the Windows 8 OS. Everything on your computer is busted up. Your option is to reinstall your old system from scratch.
Being more than a little pissed, I went back to Microsoft's website. The best info on this bit of genius had to be found with a search - not on the download page. There was a little bit on the bottom of one download page about the no uninstall feature.
So yeah, in some respects it was my "fault" Biggest fault on my end was trusting Microsoft. But yes, I suppose I should have read every word and taken every link and even thought of random stuff that might bite me in the backside. But as I once told a customer service person who's idea of service was to blame everything on the customer, even when their business ignored my instructions, "I'll just take my business some place where I don't make these mistakes." What the hell type of company thinks it is a good practice to put out a preview that hoses the previewer's computers in the first place? And if so, put the warning at the top of the page, prominently.
I've never had those type of experiences on my Mac's or my Linux computers.
p.s., The Windows 8 preview was pretty awful. From having to pull up a window to expose a log-in window, to the weird full screen Commodore 64 graphics on the smartphone screen that greets you next, then closing that to make something that sort of looks like a desktop, to changing the way you access everything (they're big on Office style ribbons) it is just very clumsy. There should be no need to force a change in how we navigate - the interface just gets in the way. A Mac user from the late 80's could figure out how to use OSX Lion pretty quickly. A Windows 95 user and Windows 8? Not at all. I had to do a search to figure out how to shut down. It's not on the start menu any more (sorta good), you have to mouse to the lower right hand corner, then carefully move the pointer up to some icons that will pop up. Anyhow, it's ugly, clumsy, and doesn't do anything that well. Still has notepad - a plus, and I liked the little goldfish on the "desktop" screen. p.s p.s. Installed Linux on the laptop that W8 hosed. All is well. Only one computer left running Windows.
Re:Ruhroh (Score:5, Interesting)
"Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception."
They're doomed.
They may well be. It's funny - I've been reading /. since before moderation, and for many years every year was going to be "the year of Linux on the desktop - this time for sure!" Well, now that that's become more of a running joke, it might actually become true. General purpose home computers will likely revert to a hobbyist thing before too many more years, and of course Linux will dominate at that point.
Non-hobby home PCs are fading fast., and it's really just PC gaming keeping Windows on home-built rigs today, which is a shrinking niche. The release of the Steam phone apps (even though they aren't really selling games yet) heralds the end. Once the big MMOs shift their client focus to mobile platforms (and that's coming for sure), it won't take long before there's no real point in running Windows on your home-built PC except that virtualized XP instance you use for classic games.
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it won't take long before there's no real point in running Windows on your home-built PC
What's going to take its place? The mobile platforms don't have the screen real estate.
and it's really just PC gaming keeping Windows on home-built rigs today
There's also a lot of stuff that uses graphics. Do you really think people will fill out spreadsheets or write papers on a mobile phone?
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What's going to take its place? The mobile platforms don't have the screen real estate.
The mobile platforms have plenty of screen real estate for the most popular games these days (what about Angry Birds, Farmeville, or Bejewelled requires a large screen?). The PC gaming scene these days is pretty much just ports of console games (not much Windows lock-in there), indies and flash games (likewise), and MMOs. MMOs are the last real holdout of Windows as the primary platform a game is written for.
There's also a lot of stuff that uses graphics. Do you really think people will fill out spreadsheets or write papers on a mobile phone?
No, of course not. They'll use a real keyboard, mouse, and monitor, plugged into a locked-down bo
Re:Ruhroh (Score:4, Funny)
Wait, wait, wait. Hooking things up to other things? That's totally mind blowing! I mean, I saw one of these smart phones for dum people and sure, I laughed but the idea that you could hook something in to change how you use a device, my god, that's geinus!
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The mobile platforms have plenty of screen real estate for the most popular games these days (what about Angry Birds, Farmeville, or Bejewelled requires a large screen?).
These belong to specific genres of games (social and casual gaming) that don't tend to be I/O intensive. World of Warcraft is another "most popular" game for which the mobile platform is inadequate.
No, of course not. They'll use a real keyboard, mouse, and monitor, plugged into a locked-down box the size of a mobile phone. Seen an Apple TV or Roku box?
In other words, a neutered PC with the usual hardware that costs more than a PC with the usual hardware. And it'll have an additional mode of failure, the smart phone/pad. Currently, your PC doesn't stop working because someone stepped on your smart phone.
Businesses are already starting the migration from desktop PCs to virtual desktops on disposable-priced terminals (with real keyboard, mouse and screen). The home market will follow soon enough (and every geek will breathe a sigh of relief).
Again? While there is a small market for dumb terminals, a
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Which are by and large the most important majority of the market.
No, they won't be in the future. Casual and social gaming get a lot of attention now because they grew fast recently. There's a lot of people who will pay small amounts to play light games that aren't very time intensive. That's what casual and social games are aimed at.
But there's a smaller group which will pay considerable sums of money, often over years to play far more complex and involved games. A mobile device can be supplement a PC (for example, if you need to make moves, monitor some activity in
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Or AutoCad, or a hundred other applications which could actually be 10x better on a touch screen than mouse/keyboard, when properly designed?
It could be, but it won't be. The only strength of a touch screen over regular PC interfaces is that it effectively has a built in stylus and tablet interface, though probably not one you care to drape a blueprint over (since you just covered the screen when you do that).
And this touch screen is going to need to be rather large, just to fit in the virtual keyboard and virtual mouse that you'll be using to do much of your CAD work. Heh, just kidding about the virtual mouse, not about the virtual keyboard
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Once the big MMOs shift their client focus to mobile platforms (and that's coming for sure)
Maybe not. Immersion is big in MMO's, which means giant monitors/big screen TV's to play on.
Also, unless everything gets dumbed down to three button mashing and menu based actions (as opposed to having 20-40 keys bound to actions), folks will still need a keyboard or similar input device.
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Non-hobby home PCs are fading fast
Are you including laptops with that? Because I don't know anyone who doesn't have one or the other.
Or are you not including Macs as "PCs"? (Because if you're talking about the overall market for traditional computer form factors, I think they're the same thing.)
Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. (Score:5, Insightful)
From what I've seen, people will not be flocking to Windows 8 of their own free will. But the "good" news is that their will has little to do with it. New computes will come with Windows 8, and no doubt there will be some software feature tie ins that will require it. Much like Vista and DirectX.
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Re:Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. (Score:5, Insightful)
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There are two problems for MS. First, they are not as structurally big as IBM was when IBM had their problems in the 80s. Second, MS is putting all (or most) of their eggs in the Windows 8 basket. I just cannot see Windows 8 getting much adoption in the corporate world. It does not appear to be a good environment for being productive. It seems to me to be an environment for consuming entertainment media.
There real problem is that their visionary (BG) stepped down and their business guy started running the show. It was at that point that Apple really took off. Apple made decisions that projected a vision. Microsoft made decisions to protect their own products. Now that Apple has lost their visionary and replaced him with a business guy, we will see if history repeats itself or not.
Re:Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. (Score:5, Interesting)
I don't think that's really an accurate analogy. Bill Gates was a business guy. Microsoft's business model has been to identify and destroy any and all threats to Windows. It still is. The problem for them is that you can't win in the long-term when you're constantly playing defense like that. Eventually you get a competitor that you just can't kill before they become a significant player, and it all goes downhill from there.
Apple is a different story. It's kind of hard to predict where they'll go from here, because their business model as a high-volume premium brand requires them to be continuously entering new markets. Because the old markets become commodity markets as competitors improve their products, which requires Apple to either lower their prices or lose market share. And they generally don't lower their prices, so you can see that e.g. Android has taken the pole position in the smart phone market, and is likely to take a large chunk of the tablet market within a year or two. When that happens, to stay on top, Apple has to enter a new market: Mac -> iPod -> iPhone -> iPad -> ? So what's next? And what's next after that?
They may or may not be able to pull a couple more transitions like that off without Jobs, but it seems unlikely to continue indefinitely. In fact, what I would expect to get them sooner than their inability to make good on a product launch is that anyone of their size quickly starts accumulating powerful adversaries, telecommunications carriers, movie studios, Microsoft, etc., who notice Apple taking a huge chunk of their prospective margins and each make efforts to claw them back. I suspect Apple would have a serious problem price-wise if AT&T and Verizon both decided they were done subsidizing iOS devices, for example. And we all know what Microsoft is capable of when you threaten Windows dominance, etc.
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I'm going to go with "designed by committee". It's "edgy", "cool", "stylised"; those trendy kids will definitely "get it"!
It reminds me of the London 2012 Olympics logo (a graffiti-style squiggle in electric pink which looks suspiciously like Lisa Simpson giving head). It's the graphic design equivalent of your dad enthusiastically dancing at a party disco.
Re:Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. (Score:4, Insightful)
We're already migrating large applications to Citrix wrapped versions that can be run on any OS and this is allowing us to transition not just our Office users but our engineers and scientists to thin clients and remote session setups. Network speed and network storage are now fast enough to make this a go.
Pretty soon, you'll just use the hardware hypervisor to select the OS (windowing) system you like and all your apps will run in their own OS and no one will be the wiser.
Re:Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. (Score:4, Insightful)
And that's fine on the PC. But when it comes to tablets and smartphones, that edge is gone. Microsoft has gone this way before when it tried to take on iPods, and the general consumer response was to reach over Zune players to grab the iPod on the shelf. Though not a perfect analogy, it also resembles Microsoft's failure at making a successful web portal. The first thing most people did when they got a new PC was to change the home page from MSN to Yahoo, and then after Yahoo had faded away, it was Google. The same goes with consoles. The whole Xbox division has swallowed who knows how much money now? And it's only been very recently that the division has even turned a profit, though certainly not enough to pay the vast investment.
Re:Then you're doomed, but I dont think its true. (Score:5, Insightful)
DirectX at least has the advantage of being arguably better than the competition. Windows 8 doesn't even have that, and ironically its biggest competitor will be... Windows 7.
You can have my PC (Score:4, Insightful)
You can have my PC when you pry it out of my cold dead arms.
Re:You can have my PC (Score:4, Insightful)
If they want me in Apple's (or anyone else's) walled garden, someone will have to drag my bloody corpse there. And even then I'll be fighting it.
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That doesn't mean the PC dies, that just means that the scenarios that we use them in, we stop referring to them as PCs, we refer to them as other things.
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we refer to them as other things
We'll refer to them as greasy finger-print displays.
Re:You can have my PC (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:You can have my PC (Score:5, Interesting)
I bought a desktop yesterday, because I still want to do some of the stuff you can't do on all your newfangled devices.
I still want to write, draw, compose, and program.
In a word, I want to create.
How ironic that it used to be Apple that was known for empowering the creative types.
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How ironic that it used to be Apple that was known for empowering the creative types.
Apple never empowered creative people, creative people used whatever canvas was available.
Apple empowered hipsters.
There is absolutely no difference between Adobe products on Windows and the same Adobe products on OS X in the last 5 years (well except that the Adobe products on Windows performed slight better) despite what the fanboys will tell you.
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What Ozzie and others are saying is
marketing bullshit dressed up as wisdom. If he would be saying it in plain and simple words, everyone would immediately spot it as the trivial observation it is. He wouldn't get headlines if he would state "People now have devices besides the PC to do some tasks with that formerly only PCs could do." - well, duh. Every 6 year old knows that.
But putting a nice trolling spin on it, and boom - your name in the headlines.
Re:You can have my PC (Score:5, Interesting)
In the beginning, only the nerds had PCs.
Then they went all mainstream. Mouses. Color Monitors. Facebook. There came a time when even little old ladies had a PC.
That's now changing. Being in a "Post-PC world" just means that the little old ladies and other consumers of digital entertainment will use some other non-PC device.
The best part: nerds will finally be left alone with their PCs. I, for one, look forward to this wonderful "Post-PC Utopia."
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I forsee the pre-build PC market shrinking a ton, and the custom build market growing to take up all the slack. PC nerds will have these smartphones and tablet in addition to their PCs. Grandma/Pa will just have a tablet and/or smartphone.
Re:You can have my PC (Score:5, Insightful)
To draw a transportation analogy (not cars, I'm afraid):
The Industrial revolution was the Train Age. There was sudden availability of cheap, reliable transport across vast distances for both people and cargo. Trains came to symbolize the great advances that came with the industrial revolution, as well as enabling them. We are in a Post-Train age. That doesn't mean that we don't have any trains, it means that they're no longer the defining symbol of the age. They've faded into practical ubiquity.
It's the same with the PC - the personal computer was the point at which the information age really took off. There was sudden access to cheap, reliable communication across vast distances. The PC has come to symbolize all the advances in the information age. When we move to a Post-PC age, it doesn't mean we won't have any, it means that they've become everyday items of practical, utilitarian uses, instead of the grand symbol they once were.
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And oddly, Apple's already done a microcosm of this on their own.
They came to fame with their own microcomputer (PC) range, such as the Mac. Macs are no longer their primary product, with them instead focusing on their iPod, iPad, iPhone range. But they haven't gotten rid of Macs. They're still there, still available, still doing the work- they're just not what defines the company any more.
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We are in a Post-Train age. That doesn't mean that we don't have any trains,
Actually, that would be exactly what it would mean if you were using the term correctly.
We are after the "age of steam", yes. But we are not "behind trains". Being "post the X era" is not the same as being in the "post X era". It becomes obvious when you look for where the conglomerates are. being "post... the-X-era" means that the X era has passed. That's a true statement if you entered a new era, since for some reason our mental model thinks we are only in one era at a time, so entering one means leaving
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I think you are missing the point. "Post-PC" does not mean the end of the personal computer. I use computing devices everyday. I have a desk top, laptop, an iPod, an iPad, an X360, a Wii, and a cell phone. Only two of those are what we commonly think of as a "PC." That is what it means to be living in a "post-PC" world: utilizing computing power in ubiquitous, non-obvious ways, away from what we think of as a "computer".
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From what I can tell, the article doesn't want to take your PC away so much as force you to start calling it something else.
So, henceforth, I will only refer to my PC as a soupspoon.
And my soupspoon ain't gonna be running Windows 8. Especially since I've learned that Microsoft is one of the 19 members of the "Heartland Institute" that is trying to get schools to only teach climate change in the context of "an ongoing controversy". The other membe
Re:You can have my PC (Score:5, Funny)
If you are holding your PC in your arms maybe you should be considering something else after all.
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Then people laughed at me and called me an idiot.........
really I can't login to my illiac 7 any more.......oh the sorrow
Re:You can have my PC (Score:5, Interesting)
There is a huge push to pry general computing out of the hands of citizens. Tablets are conditioning us for centralized storage (aka The Cloud), and if it ever gains traction, the next step will be to centralize processing power and "stream" the video output to our dumb terminals. It's all about controlling what people do on their systems, because they know they will never turn the internet into one-way information flow without wresting the processor and long-term storage from personal ownership. Once the corporate collective controls these, then we will be told what we can and cannot do with them, and how much we have to pay to do (or avoid) it. We really need to build a publicly-owned infrastructure for the net, let the high end of the market be controlled by Big Money.
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This [cap-lore.com] is a description of Sutherland's Wheel of Reincarnation. Many have observed that it applies to (among other things) client-server computing as well.
Ahh (Score:2)
"If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future"
This man is a visionary!!! Ridiculous.....
In a world of mere content consumers, maybe.... (Score:2)
Re:In a world of mere content consumers, maybe.... (Score:4, Insightful)
What's stopping you from, say, firing up a word processor on an iPad (or Galaxy Tab, if you prefer), and using a Bluetooth keyboard paired with it, to write a novel?
And thus transforming it back into a pc again? Maybe you could have a stand to dock the laptop screen in, emulating the pc screen, and then a pc mouse. 'Tablet' is just basically a form factor. By the time you've gotten it back to a form factor suitable for writing a novel, it's easier to look at it as a pc in a small case than a tablet with peripherals.
And when people reject Windows 8... (Score:2)
What then happens to Microsoft?
Influence on price of equipment to do real work? (Score:2)
Dammit, accidentally posted this as AC just now. Reposting as myself.
Honestly I'm fine with the idea that someday my phone will be my main computer, and that I'll "dock" it to a keyboard and monitor at home. (As long as everything is constantly backed up to some cloud storage somewhere so when eventually I drop my phone or a jackass friend pushes me in a lake, I don't lose the past few days of work!)
But one thing I do wonder about is what this will do to the price of "real" workstation class equipment.
If you really need a 4:3 monitor... (Score:3, Insightful)
I'm sure there's a way for you to just not use the sides of a 16:9 panel.
If a 16:9 panel costs less than the 4:3 that would fit inside it, what does it matter?
Re:If you really need a 4:3 monitor... (Score:4, Interesting)
Cinemas had curtains at the side of the screen that would move in and out when the projection ratio changed -- adverts used to be shown on 4:3 16mm film or 35mm slides but the main feature would be 2.35:1 or similar.
Perhaps someone could come up with a similar curtain-type device for 16:9 screens, USB-driven perhaps, for those folks who absolutely insist on looking at a 4:3 ratio screen. It lets them view HD Youtube content in full 16:9 proportions but when they're focussed on their golden-ratio spreadsheet and don't want distractions the curtains will slide over to block the extra pixels from their sight.
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What dumb-speak sounds like: (Score:2)
... our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.
Isn't that just... not brilliant?
Re:What dumb-speak sounds like: (Score:5, Insightful)
I seem to recall we saw this a while ago:
http://boingboing.net/2011/12/27/the-coming-war-on-general-purp.html [boingboing.net]
Odd to hear it so clearly from MS now.
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Stating the obvious (Score:5, Insightful)
Ray Ozzie has always been good at restating the obvious, and in people paying more attention to his statements than they warrant because of who he is (or was).
Microsoft is still the power player when it comes to PCs, but it has yet to figure out how to become more than an afterthought when it comes to the devices people are using more and more instead of PCs.
On a side note - I'd venture to suggest that the Slashdot crowd as a group hasn't really come to terms with this sea change that's occurring in the world at large. My tech friends - and myself as well - still use a computer more than any post-PC device, while my non-tech friends are mostly on their phones or iPads during their off-work hours.
Desktop hardware not going anywhere (Score:2)
"PC" hardware isn't going anywhere. While many tasks will shift to smart phones and tablets the need for a full size keyboard isn't going away (at least not until computers can read your mind and do what you think for them to do). Desktop's are no longer mainstream for the masses, netbooks, notebooks, and laptops are, but workstations (desktops on steroids) will remain viable for cad applications. And then there are the servers and the gamers, power users that also require 'big iron'.
The ATX motherboard
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ugh (Score:2)
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Good riddance... (Score:2)
It became a "PC world" the moment wintel's suffocating embrace made everyone believe in the "end of history". It didn't happen, they're just realizing that... the bozos
True meaning of "Post-PC World" (Score:2)
What these business men are saying without saying it is that there's nothing "new" they can come up with for the PC. It's established technology. Sure, the graphics keep getting better, the windows look shinier, and the processors keep getting faster (while the OS's get slower), but there's nothing new they can invent for the PC. It does what it's supposed to do, and we just don't expect it to do anything more.
The PC market is saturated. No one who doesn't have one will feel motivated to buy one anymore
They're fucked. (Score:5, Insightful)
I've had a small epiphany.
I think the problem with Metro, is that I don't think that regular users think like Microsoft thinks they think.
nearly 30 years of GUI development and most everyone I know still uses full screen apps and a ridiculously cluttered desktop.
Don't get me wrong, I think on paper metro sounds amazing, especially with how apps interact with each other. Also on paper, iOS sounds completely fucking ridiculous, with just page after page of apps and no interaction.
However, what I find myself realizing is that metro isn't how people want to interact with computers. It doesn't offer any advantages over Windows Explorer. It's too high minded and over thought out.
It's going to bomb.
Badly.
Re: (Score:3)
I currently have 29 windows open. Seriously -- I just counted them. That's not counting browser tabs, and it counts each remote session as one window, not counting the windows I have open on those other machines. It's how I work. I see the Windows 8 demos with their, what is it nine? windows open simultaneously, and I wonder how that's going to work in the real world.
But it doesn't make any difference because I'm going to leave the early adoption to someone else. Good luck with that. At work we're jus
Hammers and screwdrivers. (Score:3)
MS may be right about the changes.
But what is unfortunate is that they're taking away all the hammers to make everything a screwdriver, instead of adding wrenches to the tool kit.
A PC by any other name (Score:5, Interesting)
I bought a new home last December. I got a pretty good deal, too, so there neener.
But the process wasn't as simple as it was back in 2005. I had to come up with income and asset verification, file forms online and offline for everything, answer questions at a moment's notice, exchange offers and counteroffers as we negotiated over details, accept an appraisal while I was driving home from work, etc.
My Android phone was all I had to work with. I could not create documents at work without having them signed from my employer. I couldn't send attachments via email. I couldn't go to several crucial websites. If not for the phone, I would not have been able to meet the deadlines.
For that period, my Android phone was a PC.
Now, if I bothered to work itout, a Bluetooth keyboard would make it 1000% better at that. And if I could jack it into a screen and an Ethernet jack, even better. That product is not very far in the future. The Transformer ain't it, quite, and the Motorola thing was too lame.
But it's coming. Then I have to ditch my little notebook. the all-in-one will do that fine.
but wait... (Score:3)
> 'If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future. ... It's a world of phones and pads and devices of all kinds, and our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.'
But... we're already doing that. Just not with Windows.
Let's move the goalpost (Score:3)
Let's move the goalpost on what a "post PC world" is so we can be right, shall we? . Before the NON-demise of the PC finally became evident even to the "thin client" recently turned "cloud computing " evangelists, they talked about the "post PC world" as one where desktop computers were gone and computing power and cycles were going to be "like electricity" just *there*, anywhere, at the flip of a switch along with all your data.
Just like with the history of electrical generation, we will move from the days of big machines being present in every home to centrally localized and managed computing.
Now that that pipe dream(or "tube dream" ala the late Sen Ted Stevens) has become self-evidently false, they' re moving the goalposts in order to be seen as having been right.
Now to live in a post-PC world is to "have other than PCs become at all popular" (though still not as popular as PCs) .
One supposes they are doing this so they can make the claim to their speaking engagement / consulting clients that "they're the person who predicted our post-PC world in 1999..."
Whatever.
You know what? The post-PC world will happen when a better experience than a great keyboard, a great pointing device and three large flat screens is available to interact with.
Until then, people who have to create on computers rather than just consume screens of information will keep buying and loving their PCs in this "post PC world."
Now if you want to talk about a post WINDOWS or post M$ world, then pull up a chair and we can have a civilized conversation....
terminology (Score:3)
There's so much nonsense there that doesn't have any actual content, it's all about semantics misunderstood.
"Post" implies that something has passed. Since PCs are still around, we're not in a "post-PC" era. It really is that simple. Don't let marketing speech and idiots looking for a soundbite mess with our language.
What these people are really meaning is that we are in an era where the PC is not the only computing option available anymore. But the invention of the automobile did not push us into a "post train era", because the two are not two things for doing the same thing. Trains are still around, even though we have other transport available.
PCs are likely to stay around, because mobile phones, tablets, embedded computers, etc. etc. all have their own niche and while some things that were only possible on a PC until recently are now possible on other devices as well, it's nonsense to talk about "post-PC". That's just a term some fucker came up looking for a headline that would stir people up and catch their interest. On the Internet we call these people trolls.
MS is worried and vocal about the whole thing because their ecosystem relies on the PC, and they missed the train (again). Apple never worried about which era they were in, they simply created something that people wanted. Maybe MS could try that approach for a change, build something that people really want, instead of building things they think are cool and then trying to force everyone to use it whether they want to or not.
I don't care about aspect ratio, just pixels (Score:2)
As long as I can get at least 1200 pixels vertically, I'm good. I don't care if it's 1600 pixels wide or 1920. In fact, the added width is just fine. for putting taskbars, IM buddy lists, etc.
I would dearly love to have even more pixels though. A 24" or larger with the DPI of the ipad3 sounds pretty sweet.