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Technology (Apple) Businesses Apple Hardware Technology

Apple, Scully, And Intel vs. Motorola 434

fsharp writes "I've heard too many comments suggesting that Apple should have moved to Intel (x86). The Register has an article exploring John Scully's recent comments about his failure to move the Mac to x86. Scully critiques his decisions based entirely on hindsight, and in doing so, identifies Dell as a the chief competitor and the way Apple could have slayed this evil dragon would have been to move to Intel early on in his tenure. Not so fast. Hindsight can be 20/20, however it can also be quite myopic if one suffers from selective memory. The article does a good job of examining the options available at the time when Apple rewrote the MacOS for the Intel x86. How safe a bet or great a risk would it have been for Apple to switch, given the quality of chips offered (at that time) from Intel?"
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Apple, Scully, And Intel vs. Motorola

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  • Hindsight (Score:2, Insightful)

    It's a little late in the game for this kind of second guessing. I think what Apple needs to do NOW is to do the port, sell the software, and see where the market goes.
    • Re:Hindsight (Score:5, Insightful)

      by MalleusEBHC ( 597600 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:00AM (#7198143)
      This would be just about the dumbest time since the introduction of PowerPC chips in Apple hardware to consider porting to x86. For starters, just a few years after making all their developers port from OS 9 to OS X, now they will have to port from PPC to x86. So let's piss off a bunch of people by making developers port apps for a second and making customers wait for these new x86 ports. (Although, if I were to ever hear a troll go on about how they aren't switching away from OS X-PPC because it runs Quark, I think the ensuing laughter would be worth all the trouble.) So, after paying this high penalty for changing chip architectures, you are left with one of two shitty situations:

      1) OS X runs on commodity x86 hardware. Apple's hardware sales get eaten alive by Dell's ability to build machines in mass and cheaply. Then Apple is forced to survive as a software company on the sales of an OS squaring off with the 800 lbs gorilla of marketshare, Windows. Don't get me wrong, OS X is my baby, but the sheer numbers and monopolistic presence of Microsoft would make me very wary of the outcome.

      2) OS X runs only on Apple-made x86 boxes. After doing a magnificent job of figuring out how to stick two G5s in a PowerMac, Apple engineers get to throw that all out the window and do it with Xeons or Athlons. Not to mention the aforementioned porting done by developers. And the pissing off of customers who now have incompatible software. All this for what, a chance at a slight speed increase? Depending on which benchmarks you believe, the G5 is either just below, on par with, or just above high-end x86 systems. You are telling me Apple should go through all this hassle for what's going to end up being unnoticeable in the end?

      Maybe if you had suggested this in late 2000 when Motorola was beginning to show how they were going to fuck up G4 production in the future but before OS X was released, you might have had a case. But right now, things are looking the best they have in a very long time for Apple. Switching to x86 would be just about the dumbest move possible.
      • I agree, Apple has done a good thing in sticking with the PPC architecture (no thanks to moves and 'issues' with Motorola, but IBM seems to be getting things kicking again). Besides, didn't Apple kick Sculley out?

        Apple has been able to maintain a seperate and focused market (now becoming a bit less-focused, but not to the point of a Sun-like mess) quite successfully and with moves like the G5, there don't seem to be any push for them to exert time and effort in changing architectures and trying to dip the
      • Re:Hindsight (Score:3, Interesting)

        I agree. Apple made the right call at the right time and continue to do so. You only have to use a Mac for a short time to feel the difference in speed and reliability. I have introduced all of my family, my girlfriends family and several friends to the Mac and they are all convinced... especially when I demonstated the iSight conversation we had with our Norwegian friends...

      • by Anonymous Coward
        in late 2000 when Motorola was beginning to show how they were going to fuck up G4 production in the future

        Let me channel text from Apple Recon from that period:

        Jobs had a meeting at Motorola. Topic of discussion was the 'working relationship'.

        Jobs had cancelled the Mac clones. This meant that Motorola has lost 87 million dollars directly in the shutdown of the clone line. In addition to screwing up the %age of PPC chips that would be produced and put into general purpose computers.

        Instead of th
    • Re:Hindsight (Score:3, Insightful)

      by MosesJones ( 55544 )

      Okay Mr Harvard MBA or what ever you are... out of interest what was the last billion dollar company you founded.

      Look at the companies that DON'T exist right now that went intel back then, and you can include IBM's desktop OS division in that, and say that it was wrong then.

      And now explain why dilluting the market would be a good idea, why creating incompatible OS X release would strengthen their brand.

      Or is it just that you want to play on that "cool" OS X but can't afford/be arsed to buy a Mac ?
    • Whoa, do you believe Jobs is some kind of Nero? "Port and see where the market goes" sounds like setting Rome on fire and singing poetry amidst the blazing glow.
  • Apple for x86! (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 13, 2003 @03:44AM (#7198101)
    Its killed KDE/LINUX! [kde-look.org]. Its fun to trick people into thinking I've got a macintosh!

    All the Apps are there
    Itunes = JuK
    Safari = Konqueror
    Finder = Konqueror
    Dock = Kicker
    Menubar = Kicker
    bbedit = Kate
    Quicktime = Kmplayer!
    Appleworks = Koffice!
    • Re:Apple for x86! (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      What's your iChat analogue? Do the KDE users use Gaim as well? Gaim is nice.

      And what would be your analogue for Poisoned?

      It is really neat you can do all this with KDE, that's really a kind of a very "basic user" sort of configuration. When I am in my OS X, I tend to be using the set of apps you mention. However, I also tend to always have open ProjectBuilder, to code Cocoa apps in, and Logic Audio. While there is GNUStep to satiate my coding needs, I don't think GIMP or Soundforge can be thought of as dr
    • I'm sorry... (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Xenex ( 97062 )
      ...but a real Mac still looks much nicer, as demonstrated here [opinionstick.com].

      Hail to the thief, indeed.
      • ...but a real Mac still looks much nicer, as demonstrated here.

        Well, it used to anyway. Someone at Apple smoked too much crack though and decided a Brushed-metal Java-esque theme from 1997 was preferable to Aqua. As a MacOS X user I am NOT happy with the way their newer apps like Safari look. I love the Aqua interface, but brush metal is so fucking dated.

    • Itunes = JuK

      Really? How well does it handle smart playlist synchronization with your iPod = KPod?
  • Apple's "mistakes" (Score:2, Interesting)

    by aurum42 ( 712010 )
    Had nothing to do with the processor architecture they chose to go with; that was nearly invisible to the end user, and the only things switching to x86 could possibly have helped with was possible binary compatibility with dos/windows, and better a better perception of performance in the mid to late 90s. Apple's key error (in hindsight) was the failure to commoditize their hardware at the right time, probably in the mid '80s, when apple had a reasonably useful graphical OS far more advanced than dos, an "O
  • by bangalla ( 648729 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @03:49AM (#7198118)
    At the time that the Mac moved to PPC there is no way that Intel could have offered such a seamless transition. The ability of the PPC to emulate the 68k at good speed was what made the transition work. If Apple had tried to move to the x86 platform they would have lost a lot of customers with a big investment in software as the x86 could not emulate the 68k at usable speed.

    Using an alternative archetecture has also allowed Apple to hold on to its uniqueness, which has in turn guarded it somewhat from fierce comparison to the x86 crowd.

    No-one in the PC business saw Dell coming, if Apple had been just another x86 vendor with a nice OS they would be facing the same problems as HP, Compaq etc did when confronted by Dell's better supply chain model.

    I think that Sculley is being remarkably revisionist in his views. The article points out a lot of the folly in his musings.

    The G5 and the relationship with IBM is more than enough to now justify the choie of the PPC architecture.

    • No-one in the PC business saw Dell coming

      I think this point cannot be emphasized enough... I think anyone out there who says "oh we could have been Dell" is talking rubbish.

      About the only people who were close to what Dell was, was/is Gateway, and they're not anywhere as powerful as Dell is now... .

    • Actually, there is a commercial Macintosh emulator, Executor, that run on x86 from the era of the early to mid 90's that proves that the M68K can be adequately emulated on x86 hardware. What slowed down and ultimately stunted Executor was that they try to emulate the entire Macintosh OS environment (and do a pretty good job of it for OS 6 and earlier work). I remember being able to run full speed and with sound, etc. versions of Macintosh Wolfenstein 3D and Lemmings on a 486 based system with Executor.
    • "At the time of the non-decision Apple really did have to start thinking about where it was going after 68k ran out of steam, but the x86 line in those days didn't look particularly promising as a platform, the 68k still beat the 386 and PowerPC beat the 486 when it came out. "

      not to mention that the G5 now beats the penitiums in every area: raw cpu perfromance, vector processing, wide data busses, and hyper transport. Plus its loping along at a mere 2Ghz and a rather small chip area while the x86 techno

  • Ridiculous article (Score:5, Insightful)

    by ChaoticLimbs ( 597275 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @03:50AM (#7198119) Journal
    Document contains no data.

    This is all so one-sided. Let's all talk instead about what would have happened, had Apple switched to the X86 architecture, shall we?
    I think Apple would have lost control of their hardware, lost control of the drivers, and would be forced to give up, as their share of the marketplace dwindled. I think that without complete control over the peripherals, Apple would have had to negotiate with each hardware vendor, somehow coercing them into providing two driver sets, or making some sort of intermediary bytecode-like driver. Apple would slowly become Windows compatible. Windows would slowly evolve to run Mac software. Then Mac would be history, failing to compete in the price category. Apple would have to do just as much work as MS, but would sell 1/4 or less the number of copies. After a while we would have seen a true monopoly instead of a near-monopoly.
    Discuss.
    • by hype7 ( 239530 ) <u3295110@@@anu...edu...au> on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:13AM (#7198177) Journal
      This is all so one-sided. Let's all talk instead about what would have happened, had Apple switched to the X86 architecture, shall we?


      I think you're spot on.

      There's an exceptional counter-argument to Sculley's regret over at El Reg, entitled "Sculley explains how he missed the chance to trash Apple [theregister.co.uk]". I think that pretty much sums it up.

      -- james
    • ...and *bang*, "don't sell bundled macosx-for-x86 if you want these cheap windows licenses" straight to their face(well, cheap pc sellers face).

      of course, if they just kept it to themselfs, and _their_ x86 machines, they could have the needed control for everything to work like they do on macs now, and get around such (monopolistic bully) practices of ms(but then, what's the point of turning to x86 if you sell just machines 'set to stone', and push the os along that? cheap cpu power? i guess, it wouldn't d
  • by Zocalo ( 252965 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:00AM (#7198141) Homepage
    With Microsoft now admitting that Longhorn isn't due until 2006 [microsoft-watch.com], if Apple is going to release a x86 port of OSX, then now is surely the time to do it. Actually, given that Intel is in the process of a sea change to 64 bit and AMD is all but there; a better bet might be to take a stab at the burgeoning 64 bit market and ignore legacy 32 bit. That way Apple can dabble it's toes in the Intel world without getting seriously burnt by the mass market 32 bit box shifters.

    Whatever they decide, with the Windows world stalled until 2006, now's the time for the *NIX based solutions to make hay, whatever their CPU architecture of choice...

    • you can bet your ass that ms will make some incrementaly releases between today and 2003(in '98, 'me fashion). longhorn is just something they say is gonna have all the cool stuff they've been saying the next thing has since beginning '90s(nt4.0 was 'going' to be so much more than what xp is now.. eventually it turned out to not be as much as touted though, it's a way to keep people from switching to something better, saying your next version will have all the bells and whistles you can imagine, so what the
    • Stab at 64 bit? That's exactly what they have done. With IBM behind them...Why have an Intel 64 bit port as well?

      How certain are you that the way computing goes in the next few years will favor the Intel approach versus the IBM approach?

    • With the iTunes Music Store about to come to Windows, and the iPod already working well there, I'd say Apple has already successfully entered the Windows market by doing an end run around Microsoft. They've found a way to make money from Windows users -- first with hardware (iPod), then software (iTunes) -- without taking any Windows marketshare at all.

      Replacing Windows with OS X is a big change for any computer user. Adding an iPod and iTunes to Windows is much, much easier. They don't have to beat Micros
    • as I said to you this morning Dr Zee, I really don't see apple releasing OSX for the intel architecture. it's been rumoured for some time that apple keeps an inhouse copy of osx for intel "just in case" but I think that if they released it, it would be the beginning of the end for them. right now their uniqueness is their advantage.

      if they went down the intel route, they'd have to make the decision about whether to go for using a wintel compatible platform (ie format windows and install osx) in which case
  • If Apple supported the X86, it'd feel like the current PC OS's.. everything would be a driver issue. Not that OS X doesn't have a driver issue ever in its life, but it'd feel too much so. I like the fact that I can garantee that my mac works with OS X. The only external factors there are, are printers, wacom tablets and cameras (dv or still).

    Anytime I've dealt with a PC OS, I've had to worry, will the sound work (onboard or not), will the ethernet card conflict with anything. Do I need to worry abot th
  • by SkiifGeek ( 702936 ) <info&beskerming,com> on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:02AM (#7198151) Homepage Journal

    I don't think that it would have been a very good move for Apple if they switched. It is like saying Sun should ignore their hardware developments and just rely upon x86 / commodity for everything.

    It would have been difficult for Apple to maintain their quality control, especially when any Joe could have installed their OS. IIRC the article states that Apple would have become just another relatively small PC supplier and essentially just a competing OS company.

    While a lot of Apple's decisions have seemed bizarre to the public, history has shown that they have something special (especially their HIG and provocative industrial design), and their ongoing relationship with Big Blue will be profitable for a long time. They haven't looked stronger than this for a long time, and are guaranteed of their future without needing to go x86 (although it took the G5, iMac, iTMS and iPod to do it).

    Anybody saying that they should be going x86 is just pissing in the wind. If you don't like the Apple tax, don't pay it (although it doesn't really exist for comparable specs), but don't bleat about Apple not giving you beige box pricing, I don't hear anyone calling for Sun to sell their HD's for $100.

  • If Apple would have changed to Intel in the late 80's, today it would most likely have evolved into yet another dull Dell competitor (pun intended), making generic PC clones. That is, if the company would have survived such a blow at all. (Consider for instance the fate of Be, Inc).

    I think Sculley just proves how little he still understands about Apple and its customers, and the core values of the company. For those of you ancient enough to remember those days: Imagine the badwill among the late 80's Mac u
  • What is, is. Switching to x86 wouldn't have had me drooling of envy each and every time I see an iBook.
  • by Gilmoure ( 18428 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:10AM (#7198171) Journal
    OS X=Frosting on cake.

    Apple makes money by getting people to buy boxes with the highest profit margin in the PC industry. They do this by making them fairly tasty to a small group of folks with cash. So far, this has given them a 25 million user market, which is slowly expanding, though not at the rate that the X86 market is expanding. The thing is, it is still growing. Yes, their market share has dwindled, but the market has grown so large, it's not life threatning to them. Same thing goes for developers. It's argued that no one's going to want to develop for a platform with miniscule mindshare. Bullshit! How'd Linux happen, then? As long as there's even 100,000 Mac users, you're going to have developers. It's even more true, now, with OS X, as so much stuff is readily available for porting/compiling.

    Even if Apple switched to X86, they would not go and step into the ring, going up against Microsoft and Dell. They'd have propietary logic boards/boxes that would keep people buying their stuff at premium prices. You'd never see OS X able to run on a Lindows machine.

    A great example of what happens if you move into the X86 world is both BeOS and NeXT. They both started out making their Motorolla based machines, switched to X86 and then, when selling hardware didn't pan out, became software only companies, duking it out with MS. NeXT was smart enought to go and take over Apple, moving away from X86 while BeOS has whithered on the vine. Personally, I was hoping for Apple to bring BeOS in and use that as their new OS. That could have been interesting.

    You can see a couple other hardware companies trying the X86 route as well; Sun and SGI. While they have slightly different market segments, they still face the problems of trying to make money off of software as opposed to hardware in X86 land.
    • Sure, Apple is going to have their "proprietory" circuit board, etc. That's fine. But give us an OS that can run x86 platform, and lessee how long it would take for hackers around the world to make it run on a vanilla x86 box. Prolly not very long.

    • by alispguru ( 72689 ) <bob.baneNO@SPAMme.com> on Monday October 13, 2003 @08:51AM (#7198635) Journal

      So far, this has given them a 25 million user market, which is slowly expanding, though not at the rate that the X86 market is expanding.

      I have one quibble with this - is the x86 market still expanding? In the developing world, I suspect pretty much everyone who needs a computer already has one, and unless they do video or games their raw hardware is fast enough for what they do (word processing, spreadsheets, email, web browsing).

      If this is true, then what we're left with is competition of style (ease of use, fit and finish) versus externalities (compatibility with the rest of the universe). If there's any justice, Apple ought to continue to grow.

      Though I hope they don't "win" - a monopoly Apple would probably become just as fat, lazy, and obnoxious as Microsoft.
    • by Arkham ( 10779 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @09:22AM (#7198810)
      Personally, I was hoping for Apple to bring BeOS in and use that as their new OS. That could have been interesting.

      At the time Apple and NeXt "merged", I thought BeOS was the better choice. It seemed faster on smaller hardware, had some really unique features (BeFS, etc), and seemed more polished.

      As it turns out, Apple's move to a real UNIX-based OS was smart and well-timed. BeOS was written in C++ and had fragile base class issues. It was not multi-user. Lots of drivers didn't work right or had not been written yet. It was a nice proof of concept, but it was not complete.

      NeXt on the other hand, had what we now call Cocoa, a rich development and deployment framework that makes app development easier than on any other OS. With its UNIX roots, OSX has been able to take advantage of Linux's growing popularity (porting all the popular Linux tools is pretty trivial), and thus all that software is now available to Mac users. And with NeXt's Display PostScript being replaced with the similar Quartz (PDF) rendering engine, the OS has complete OS-wide PDF support, which is brilliant.

  • by Anonymous Coward
    ...makes for boring OS-X files.

    Hahahahaha I'll be here all week.
  • Vendor lock-in. (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:18AM (#7198187)
    I wrote a long comment explaining that it was at the time and still is a bad idea to go with x86 becuase with x86 you have a certain amount of chip-vendor lockin, meaning if Apple suddenly has to change from Intel to AMD, or something, and still retain its special aspects to its chips (Altivec, etc) it's moving to a chip that has the same instruction set but no other similarities, thus making the changeover very difficult. Meanwhile, with PPC, Apple partially owns the patent pool, and so they are able to pick up their designs and move to another manufacturer. Note that once Apple chose to give up on the increasing disaster that was Motorola's PPC production, they were able to switch to IBM relatively swiftly.

    I tried to post this comment about like four times, and every time comments.pl timed out on me. So use your imagination and pretend that the above post was much more erudite and detailed.

    Good lord, what is happening tonight? I feel like I'm on kuro5hin.

    Either way, it is at least somewhat beneficial for Apple-- being a dual hardware/software company-- to be using a microchip that they have some direct control over, such as the PPC.
  • ..to have had the Mac o/s on a PC in the late 80's, if you remember what a mess MS got into (whats new eh) with OS/2 & then the long delay before Win4.0/95.. I think it could have worked too, especially if it had some sort of DOS emulation, running win apps would have been less important. Mind you, the 486's were crappy compared to RISC, which did seem to be the future at the time.

    Other wishes?

    The Amiga O/S on the PC in the late 80's.. (with optional plug in vid board)

    I brought one of the first books
  • Not important. (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward
    In 5 years Apple will be primarily a music sales company anyway, with their mildly successful niche computer/OS sales department just kind of chugging along as it always has in the background..
    • In 5 years Apple will be primarily a music sales company anyway, with their mildly successful niche computer/OS sales department just kind of chugging along as it always has in the background..

      Well, make that a music, software (Final Cut) and consumer electronics (iPod) company.

      And since they'll be less dependent on Mac hardware to generate a revenue stream, they may be more amenable to opening up the Mac platform than they have been in the past. Allowing cloning wouldn't have the potential to do them t
  • by claudebbg ( 547985 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:30AM (#7198218) Homepage
    It's quite easy to write about a strategic subject after the battle, but as far as I can see, Apple has handled the situation with a visionary approach: don't use Intel but use standard components (IDE/PCI/RAM...).
    The point is to use good and cheap components, simple and build on order product lines, and to avoid competitors. Apple decided to avoid competitors with a dedicated architecture (PowerPC, dedicated hardware+software) and Dell decided to avoid competitors with obsessive efficiency and speed.
    Let's see the result now: we meet two companies working well (I mean earning some pennies) in the "PC" business. Both are improving their product lines with inexpensive (eMac, iBook, Axim, 1U servers, etc.) and top performance (G5, Precision 650) offers.
    The strange experience I did recently was to compare some Dell & Apple products for my personal wish list: a solid desktop for development/office tasks, able to handle some multimedia for free-time and a laptop for mobility (web surfing/ messaging/ coding) and audio connection. Basically the performances where close, prices were really close (+/-10% max on both sides) and the differences were on accessories (nice looking good LCD screen or basic one, RAM, disks, all of them compatible with competitors).
    I'll certainly choose Apple because of the nice looking/ well assembled machines and because I haven't got to choose between Linux and XP as best of both is integrated in MacOS 10 (plus some little more, thanks to integration).
    That leads me to a simple conclusion: these two companies have made a similar good choices which are not at all in the Intel vs PowerPC discussion but standard components choice, build on order based on the client needs, firmly choose an OS and some markets to work on. This leads to a similar result: two companies doing well in the business with satisfied customers.
    • The commodity approach is pretty much the same one Sun made with the Ultra-10 and later desktops. Keep the processor and OS, and capitalize on the economies of scale for everything else - disks, memory, cdrom/dvd, etc. It hasn't led to a boom in sales, but it's allowed them to price more competitively. I suspect Sun's workstations (and entry servers) are priced just low enough that it's easier for Sun's existing customers to pay a slight premium than to switch architectures. The high-end platforms are w
  • by Corpus_Callosum ( 617295 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:34AM (#7198224) Homepage
    All this talk about Apple moving to Intel architecture neglects the most important current fact: As of right now, Apple has the best hardware. The Dual G5 has the best bus, the fastest interconnects, the best peripheral support and the best (in my opinion) Operating System.

    Why would Apple be interested in an endeavor that guarantees massive headaches (heterogenous hardware support), sends a mixed signal to the marketplace (about which platform is better) in order to run their OS on a platform that would have no (ZERO, NADA) application support for years and, again, would run slower than what is currently shipping from Apple?

    This whole article seems like FUD to try to cloud the issue (that Apple has surpassed WinTel) to me.
    • by caitsith01 ( 606117 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @05:36AM (#7198312) Journal
      You know, you can buy a supercomputer that's even faster than a G5, and even more expensive too!

      Until Apple can release decent spec machines at vaguely realistic prices there is no merit whatsoever in the claim that "Apple has surpassed WinTel". At the moment here in Australia I could buy 4 or 5 very quick AMD based boxes for the price of one shiny metal G5, and I am guessing the situation is the same in the US.

      I am no Intel/Windows apologist - I have been itching to buy an Apple for a couple of years now. Sadly, there's just no way I can justify springing A$3000 for the equivalent of an A$1500 PC.

      I guess what I'm trying to get at is - even if the current Apple lineup is 'faster' (whatever that means) that the Intel crop, (a) it won't last longer than 6 months tops before Intel and AMD have shot past again and (b) I'm sure if Intel and AMD produced hardware aimed at the same prince-point as Apple it would be twice as quick. Fortunately for their stockholders they prefer to aim at the price-point that people are actually going to buy products at.
      • You need to compare like items or your simply wasting your time. If you look at the cost of a comparable pc to the high end mac's you'll find that the price is nearly the same. Sure you can get a nice AMD box for much cheaper. I have two of them (and an AMD based laptop) but my machines aren't nearly as nice as what Apple makes, even though they clock in at 3.6 Ghz (dual processor machines).

        One other thing that needs to be considered is what your going to use the computer for. Sure I can buy a car for less

      • ...I am no Intel/Windows apologist - I have been itching to buy an Apple for a couple of years now. Sadly, there's just no way I can justify springing A$3000 for the equivalent of an A$1500 PC.

        I've refuted this before [slashdot.org], but then again, I'm not sure you've seen my post. It's still valid, even after the Athlon 64 (since that proc is not dual-capable).

  • One Word: SUN (Score:5, Insightful)

    by ewn ( 538392 ) <ernst-udo.wallenborn@freenet.de> on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:38AM (#7198228) Homepage

    As Feynman says and Dell shows, here's always room at the bottom. As the existence of Apple shows, there usually is room at the top, too. In between, that's where the crowd is. To move to an intel platform is not the issue for Apple, and it never was. Not becoming just part of the crowd when doing so is.

    Look at SUN. They made the best machines you could buy for internet applications at a time back in the nineties, and charged you a lot of money for it. Today the rest of the world has caught up, we all stack our racks with linux pizzaboxen now, and SUN is in trouble. The company has to decide: is SUN a hardware company? that would mean investing a lot in the development of SPARC, killing the Solaris x86 line and fighting Linux, or move entirely to Intel, giving up software development altogether and become like Mike. Or is SUN a software company? that would mean cancelling further SPARC development and concentrating on Solaris and Java. Eventually, this would kill SPARC.

    Strengthening the hardware section in SUN would hurt the software guys, and beefing up the software department could easily hurt the hardware sales. Not a good strategic position. Apple could easily be (or have been) caught in the same situation. To compete with Dell you have to become like Dell. If you don't want to do this, you must find a different market for yourself. Or be just part of the crowd.

    • Re:One Word: SUN (Score:4, Interesting)

      by sql*kitten ( 1359 ) * on Monday October 13, 2003 @06:28AM (#7198377)
      The company has to decide: is SUN a hardware company? that would mean investing a lot in the development of SPARC, killing the Solaris x86 line and fighting Linux

      Well, you can buy a 1U Sun SPARC now for less than a comparable 1U Dell. Sun is price-competitive now at the low end, for the first time. And, they have an edge Dell can't match, namely that Sun guarantees forwards compatibility - you can take an old app from old hardware and an old Solaris, and run it on the latest kit and OS. If you can't, and you stuck to documented APIs in your code, Sun treats it as a bug in Solaris and fixes it. Dell can't provide that because they don't control any of the OSs they offer. Not only that, but Sun's hardware is of a higher quality. I recently experienced my first Sun hardware failure in years - two SPARC processors failed in a production server. The machine just kept right on running, as it was designed to do, and we swapped a new board in when it was convenient. What can you hot-swap on a Dell these days, just disks?

      What I'm getting at is that Sun is not a hardware company nor a software company. It's a platform company, like IBM's mainframe division, and like Apple. If you want to compare it to Dell, a more subtle analysis is required than just "price per box".
  • by theolein ( 316044 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @04:51AM (#7198249) Journal
    After reading yet another "How John Sculley fucked up" article I feel I can say few things. The first is that the board of Pepsi is, with the same hindsight that John Sculley now has, probably enormously glad that he buggered off to Apple in the 80's and didn't stay at Pepsi where they would have had to fire him a few years later for plain apocryphal business decision making.

    Because John Sculley, with his wonderful hindsight, still doesn't "get it" and that says a lot about him. His absolutely idiotic remarks about Apple moving to x86 are worth less today than they were when Apple had actually ported Mac OS to x86 in a project called "Startrek" in 1994, only to call it off at the last moment.

    The Brand is everything with Apple. Check it out. Go to the website, go to an Applestore. The design of the hardware, the design of the software, the design of Steve Jobs' stage appearances, the design of the Website, the design of the Apple store, everything is made to fit into the brand. There is practically NO other company that does this as well as Apple. No one. Nada. Zilch. Or why do you think that mac OSX doesn't have themes and skins as part of the basic OS? (Yes, I know that 3rd party people make skins, but they are not endorsed or supported by Apple)

    I hate car analogies, but in terms of branding, Apple is the BMW of computing. The designs are timeless in a way that makes my 4 year old Lombard Powerbook as interesting to look at as my 2 year old Titanium Powerbook (Ever notice that Apple used two shades and textures of black plastic in the Lombard/Pismo design?). It's a design that makes a 4 year old B&W Tower interesting and a design that makes you stop and stare when you see a G5 from the outside as well as the inside.

    It's something that "cheap and ugly as you can be as long as it's fast" tech nuts and ex executives of bottled sugar water don't "get".

    Technically, it would have all been possible, and in 1990 Apple stood a good chance of beating Microsoft at its own game as all the graphical applications would have been forced to move over to x86 along with Apple, and Mac OS 7 was way better than Windows 3.0, but by 1994, when the "Startrek" project was underway, it was already too late. Apple had gotten lost in the future OS dealings with Taligent, Pink, Starttrek and the miserable Copland effort.

    Buying NeXT was the best thing NeXT (excuse the pun) ever did. And while the clones being lost was sad. Apple would not have been able to turn its business around with the clone competition. It would have diluted the Brand, which was something that Jobs understood correctly in doing.

    Today Apple could in no way switch again. They came very close to losing Adobe and Macromedia with the switch to OSX and would almost certainly lose them if they switched to x86 (or Itanium or Opteron or whatever). Those applications are part of Apple's bread and butter business and Apple knows it. But the G5 and the coming G3 with Altivec look good for the near future despite or because of Intel vapourware announcements to scare of opteron customers.
    • Apple had gotten lost in the future OS dealings with Taligent, Pink, Starttrek and the miserable Copland effort.

      Copland wasn't that bad. OK, so it wasn't the second coming of Christ but it's probably Sylvester Stallone's best movie since Rocky and it's got some great performances by an awesome cast - Harvey Keitel, Ray Liotta, Robert De Niro, John Spencer, etc.

      Definitely worth two hours of your time.

      Huh? Whatcha mean that's not what you meant? You did say Copland, didn't you? D'oh!

      Oh, and by the way, h
  • The article makes the point about how Dell has profited primarily because of its logistical prowess. This is true, but there is a catch to this that doesn't seem to be often mentioned. Dell has patented many of its logistical/business processes.

    This is why Dell can outperform its competitors: because competitors cannot really match its business processes. It's yet another example of how such patents harm competition. And, you already know, most of those patents are for things that would be considered o

  • by mst76 ( 629405 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @05:22AM (#7198289)
    I got found this interesting post on Google Groups. Remember, this is what Bill Gates wrote to the Apple CEO 13 years ago, just one and a half year after the launch of the original Apple Macintosh and the IBM AT, three years after Compaq introduced the first IBM clone.

    Selected quotes from a confidential memorandum from Bill Gates to John Scully of Apple dated June 25, 1985.

    Source: Wired Magazine, November 1997, page 126-128.

    A memo on "Apple Licensing of Mac Technology."

    Apple's stated position in personal computer is innovative technology leader. This position implies that Apple must create a standard on new, advanced technology. They must establish a "revolutionary" architecture, which necessarily implies new development incompatible with existing architectures.

    Apple must make Macintosh a standard. But no personal computer company, not even IBM, can create a standard without independent support. Even though Apple realized this, they have not been able to gain the independent support required to be perceived as a standard.

    The significant investment (especially independent support) in a "standard personal computer" results in an incredible momentum for its architecture. Specifically, the IBM PC architecture continues to receive huge investment and gains additional momentum [...] The investment in the IBM architecture includes development of differentiated compatibles, software, and peripherals; user and sales channel education; and most importantly, attitudes and perceptions that are not easily changed.

    Any deficiencies in the IBM architecture are quickly eliminated by independent support [...] The closed architecture prevents similar independent investment in the Macintosh. The IBM architecture, when compared to the Macintosh, probably has more than 100 times the engineering resources applied to it when investment of compatible manufacturers is included. The ratio becomes even greater when the manufacturers of expansion cards are included.

    Conclusion:

    As the independent investment in a "standard" architecture grows, so does the momentum for that architecture. The industry has reached the point where it is now impossible for Apple to create a standard out of their innovative technology without support from, and the resulting credibility of, other personal computer manufacturers. Thus APPLE MUST OPEN THE MACINTOSH ARCHITECTURE TO HAVE THE INDEPENDENT SUPPORT REQUIRED TO GAIN MOMENTUM AND ESTABLISH A STANDARD. [emphasis mine]

    The Mac has not become a standard:

    The Macintosh has failed to attain the critical mass necessary for the technology to be considered a long term contender.

    [...]

    Recommendation:

    Apple should license Macintosh technology to 3-5 significant manufacturers for the development of "Mac Compatibles".

    US manufacturers and contacts: ideal companies - in addition to credibility, they have large account sales force that can establish the Mac architecture in larger companies:

    - AT&T, James Edwards - Wang, An Wang - Digital Equipment Corporation, Ken Olsen - Texas Instruments, Jerry Junkins - Hewlett Packard, John Young

    Other companies:

    [ list of companies and contact names deleted ]

    Apple should license the Macintosh technology to US and European companies in a way that allows them to go to other companies for manufacturing. Sony, Kyocera [...] are good candidates for OEM manufacturing of Mac compatibles.

    MICROSOFT IS VERY WILLING TO HELP APPLE IMPLEMENT THIS STRATEGY. We are familiar with the key manufacturers, their strategies and strengths. We also have a great deal of experience in OEMing system software.

    Rationale:

    1. The companies that license Mac technology would add credibility to the Macintosh architecture.

    2. These companies would broaden the available product offerings through their "Mac-compatible" product lines:

    - They would each innovate and add features to the basic systems [...]

    -

  • by xyote ( 598794 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @05:31AM (#7198300)
    IBM was going to come out with personal powerpc systems which would even have a common motherboard reference design with Macs. The volume of production would drive down costs dramatically. But IBM didn't and Apple basically got screwed on that deal.


    Interestly enough, the reason IBM canned the personal powerpc systems was that OS2 for PPC completely blew its schedule several times over. IBM had a personal AIX edition for PPC ready but chose not to go with that. The reason. Unix would never make it as a mainstream operating system for PCs.

  • by Anonymous Coward
    Really!

    For me Apple has the best hardware, best designs, best OS.
    This won't be true anymore if they have to deal with every x86 hardware. And I prefer they tweak the OS for a few hardware configs (including mine) than spend their time working on configs I don't even care of. Plus, PPC is better. We forgot that because of Motorola but IBM will remind it to us, starting now.

    And even if Apple have to go x86 one day, i'm sure they won't make Os X (or XI, XII...) open to every hardware.
    They are an hardware ven
  • by tf23 ( 27474 ) <tf23@lo t t a d o t . com> on Monday October 13, 2003 @06:32AM (#7198383) Homepage Journal
    The only reason why people want them to switch is the hopeful idea that the prices for their machines will be cheaper then their current cost with the G4/G5 procesors.

    But would it? Why would it be cheaper? Who's to say that Apple wouldn't use their own BIOS, so you can't use/make a hombrew clone, and that they wouldn't tack on their "Apple Surcharge" because this is apple h/w?

    Now, the reason that Apple considers switching, IMHO, is two-fold:

    1. the promise of expanded marketshare
    2. they currently have OS X working on Intel already w/ limited driver (er extranous hardware) support.
  • One reason I like Apple's products is the fact they aren't x86. x86 is very behind the times when compared to the PowerPC architecture. Especially considering Intel's efforts to butcher design principles to get higher and ultimately meaningless clock speeds. There is no doubt in my mind that what Apple has now is superior. No reason to fuck that up.

    Furthermore, if Apple made "the switch", they would really become very disinteresting from a layman's point of view. Having an x86 processor means they ar

  • by Ianoo ( 711633 ) on Monday October 13, 2003 @06:38AM (#7198390) Journal
    You're forgetting the third way Apple could do itself a favour. They could open source Aqua. Imagine the possibilities: 1. I'm pretty sure that a project would have Aqua running on Linux or FreeBSD in a few months. In the meantime, Apple gets free development and bugfixes for Aqua, and when it's finished, we get the modern, excellent X Windows replacement (with a backwards compatible rootless X Server) people have been wanting for years and years. 2. Apple can still sell their own hardware, and they can limit key products like iTunes to PPC binary. This way, they don't loose out to comoditised x86 boxes. 3. Microsoft won't be pissed and stop producing Mac Office (which is important to a lot of people on the Mac), because again they can just produce PPC binaries instead of x86 binaries. Instead we get OpenOffice.org for Aqua (hopefully faster after they dump the horrendous toolkit they're using now).
  • Hindsight is not always 20/20. Some people still don't see well, even in retrospect.

    Because of the restrictions placed on PC vendors by Microsoft it was almost inevitable that a company like Dell would appear. Few options were available to vendors. They could innovate on form factor. But the corporate world sees that as just fluff. They could innovate on peripherals. But that doesn't do much to sell PCs. Or, they could innovate in the area of business processes. That's what Dell did and it has work
  • Nah! It would be useless; applications would still need to be ported to the Apple toolkit and system libs. Take linux/FreeBSD and MS, they all run the same CPUs but good luck running programs across platforms ;-) No, Apple needs to push their platform out of the niche they escaped to in the System N days. Get high profile engineering/science sw to Os X: EDA, CAD, simulators... workstation markets are essentially left to windows and although linux is growing, it's not at the same rate (boh, I wonder why... p
  • Slow News Sculley Time (10/10/03) [appleturns.com]:

    Next week: Sculley confesses to WIRED that, in hindsight, it may have been a mistake to mention to Bill Gates that "if anybody copies the Mac interface and slaps it onto cheap IBM clone hardware, I'd probably be dumb enough to let them get away with it via a

    legal loophole [apple-history.com], and then, hoo, boy would we be in trouble."

  • It's a good thing for x86 users that Apple, IBM, and Motorola got together to produce the PowerPC architecture. At the time Apple was looking for a new chip, the x86 architecture was looking pretty weak. PowerPC, on the other hand, held lots of promise for huge speed increases far into the future.

    Had Apple chosen to go with x86, the fire under Intel's ass that was and is PowerPC would never have been lit.

    In the years since the introduction of the PowerPC 601, Intel and AMD have both shown themselves to
  • I got my RDRAM based P4 board and P4 cpu itself burned and buying a G5 64 bit Mac in 2 days.

    If "mac" was just a cool looking x86 box (or even Itanium) having custom themed XP or something I wouldn't think it even.

    So its end of discussion on x86 on macintosh...

    Yes it continues to be a CHOICE. Thank god for that guy who left/got fired from Apple couldn't be suscessful on his Intel idea....

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