Retailers Respond To HDD Squeeze By Limiting Purchases, Raising Prices 282
SKYMTL writes "With Thailand experiencing its worst flooding in generations, component manufacturers have been especially hard hit. The trickle down effect is having a huge impact upon hard drive manufacturers in particular. Retailers have responded by drastic price increases and even limiting hard drive purchases to 1-2 drives per person."
Price Spikes (Score:2, Interesting)
15%-30% price spikes? The 2TB drives I bought on Tuesday increased 46% in price (from $80 to $117) and not too long before them the had them on sale for $69.99.
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15%-30% price spikes? The 2TB drives I bought on Tuesday increased 46% in price (from $80 to $117) and not too long before them the had them on sale for $69.99.
So much for my plans of system upgrade any time soon.
I can wait.
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Yeah, me too. Here I was just thinking about buying a dedicated NAS box for my place to cut back on the power bill. Fuck.
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That's fine, they will sell exactly ZERO of them until the price goes back to normal.
So the manufacturers got flooded, tough tits. If the industry is managed in such a way that they can't buffer a few weeks of supply lag, then these people deserve to lose money. It should not be the consumer's burden. Globalization is a double edged sword and the manufacturers need to be held responsible for their record profits.
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Unless you have absolutely no overhead, and everybody has some, moving zero product isn't a situation you shoot for. Moving less product at higher margins is certainly a poss
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That only applies to raising prices with some products. Watch how quickly the price of gasoline goes up when the oil price per barrel climbs and how slowly it goes down when the price falls.
We've seen nearly a 50% drop in the price of a barrel of oil, and only about a 2% drop in the price of gasoline. During that same period, the cost of refining fell too.
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My point was just that, architecturally, online retailers can modify prices within minutes according to demand, their costs, whatever they can infer about incoming customers' price sensitivity, etc. That doesn't mean that they'll lower prices as fast as they raised them; but
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Well, the spot price didn't go down 50%, but it did go down over 40%.
So if the futures contracts are so disconnected from actual price and supply, can we agree that they cannot serve their function and do nothing more than provide a legal skimming operation or fixed casino gambling? That they are actually harmful to a functioning market?
Re:Price Spikes (Score:5, Interesting)
If the industry is managed in such a way that they can't buffer a few weeks of supply lag
Pretty much the entire world works this way now. It's called just in time manufacturing, and it is one of the many efficiencies that enabled Toyota and Honda to ride roughshod over Detroit in the 70s and 80s. It's central to Wal-Mart's profitability. You save money by not having large stocks on hand - you don't have to pay to warehouse them, and you're not stuck with a large stock of unsellable items when you change the underlying product.
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The WD 2TB drives that NCIX were shipping on Tuesday show a manufacturing date of June 23, 2011. I find it a bit of a stretch that the almost four months supply of drives have been sold in three days time. Even if I am incorrectly estimating the size of the pipe neither of us can deny there are cargo containers with drives in them (all with pre-flood dates) still on their way to destination ports all over the world (cargo shipping takes around 25 days from Malaysia to the USA). If we haven't used up wh
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That's fine, they will sell exactly ZERO of them until the price goes back to normal.
BS, those who actually need capacity NOW will still buy drives. So will those for whom the cost of hard drives is lost in the noise. The only people who will stop buying are those who either don't really need them right now or are really short on cash.
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It's called "just in time inventory," which is why the drives are cheap(er) to begin with- no warehouse overhead expenses. I guess you also missed the whole supply & demand explanation for prices in school, too.
Re:Price Spikes (Score:5, Insightful)
Classic PR tick to fake scarcity to make a bad deal appear better than it is. 99% of customers would only buy 1 anyway.
It means that they've changed from hi-tech marketing to commodity marketing like your grocery store always uses.
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Not to mention that since they already bought the drives they are selling now, the price hikes are gouging.
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That's not how pricing works.
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I would go easy on him, he doesn't really know anything.
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You must not understand what gouging is.
Sadly, that IS how pricing works, even if it's not a terribly ethical practice.
Re:Price Spikes (Score:5, Informative)
...since they already bought the drives they are selling now, the price hikes are gouging...
No, they're simply anticipating and spreading out the damage. This is microeconomics 101, supply & demand.
Let's say you're a big retailer who sells 10,000 drives per month, buying them for $70 each and selling for $100 each. You make $300,000 a month selling those drives. That revenue pays the salary and benefits for a couple of dozen employees.
Then the manufacturer tells you that, due to factory damage, they can only supply you with 2000 drives per month for the next few months. If all prices remained the same (which they probably won't; the manufacturer will raise your wholesale price if they can), you would lose $240,000 of your monthly revenue.
Now, your market research tells you that there is sufficient demand to sell 2000 drives/month at $200 each. You will still lose $180,000 of your revenue every month, due to lower volume, but the volume is now constrained by your supplier, not the market. Bumping the price saves you $240,000.
So you mark up the price on all of your existing stock now. And you still lose heaps of revenue until the manufacturer gets back up to speed. Might even have to fire a few employees to cut costs.
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Typo.
Bumping the prices saves you $60,000 per month. $180,000 per quarter, which may be how long it takes these factories to ramp up again.
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Classic PR tick to fake scarcity to make a bad deal appear better than it is. 99% of customers would only buy 1 anyway.
Agree on the marketing trick, but disagree on the 99%. Many customers buy hard drives only in pairs. Mirroring is the easiest form of backup.
Re:Price Spikes (Score:5, Insightful)
Mirroring is the easiest form of backup.
*giggles*
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Mirroring is the easiest form of backup.
*giggles*
Mirroring is the easiest form of backup.
*giggles*
Whoosh!
Explain the giggles?
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S'actly. I was pretty sure its memehood was sacrosanct around these parts.
Re:Price Spikes (Score:4, Informative)
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I think we agree, except perhaps my definition of "mirroring" is broader than yours.
My original point was that more than 1% of folks buy hard drives in pairs, so they can back them up. Hence a 1-drive limit on purchases is ridiculous.
fwiw, I have never lost data to an errant delete command, virus, or lightning strike. I have lost data, several times, to hard drive failures (head crashes). I suspect this is the main data-loss scenario for consumers. NOT fire, flood, theft, lightning, etc. Simple statistical
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So is it gouging to sell stocks for more than you bought them for?
Awesome! (Score:2)
I just bought a pair of 2TB drives for storing all my "Legally acquired media files."
Re:Awesome! (Score:5, Funny)
Well, I just "bought" a pair of 2TB drives for storing all my legally acquired media files.
Re:Awesome! (Score:5, Funny)
And "I" just bought a pair of 2TB drives for storing all my legally acquired media files.
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* For values of "pair" sufficiently close to 1.
Re:Awesome! (Score:5, Funny)
Well I just bought a pair of "2TB drives" for storing all my "legally" acquired "media files".
~ Papa Lazarou.
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lameness filter Filter error: Your comment looks too much like ascii art. Please use fewer 'junk' characters.
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I've done all my drive shopping over the last two years, I won't need to upgrade anything until the file server fills up and there's still plenty of space.
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You should sell it while it's high.
I make all of my storage media pass a drug test before I will even buy it.
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Price discovery make distribution efficient (Score:4, Insightful)
This is a good example of how raising prices works to distribute whatever resources in efficient manner, allowing those, who truly need whatever the resource (HDDs in this case) to come up with the largest bid on it, which means that the resource was most needed for that situation. It definitely beats artificial rationing.
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This isn't efficient distribution, this is gouging. There are other factories in the world, the dealers are simply taking advantage of a natural disaster to arbitrarily hike prices.
I was going to buy a stack of hard drives for a new server build, but now I'm going to wait it out. My supplier is not going to see a single penny from me for hard drives until this bullshit goes back down to normal. Since the majority of my sales consist of white-box file servers, that means they're losing out on about $20k a
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Perfect! If you can wait for your hard drives, by all means please do! Since there is now limited supply, you are leaving them for those who need them now (and are willing to pay for the priviledge).
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I agree, they are raising their prices based on a perceived crisis. But under our economic system, price for goods is not tied to cost of production or supply, but by what the greatest net income can be received. Capitalism assumes that everyone is fully informed regarding all issues, since people are limited in time and information, it's not quite a perfect system. The store owners are just using the news that hard drive manufacturing has been hurt to artificially raise their prices. We'll see how
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Gouging is when a retailer sets the price higher than the market equilibrium rate where supply equals demand. If the price retailers have set creates a surplus, then there is gouging.
In this case, because there is no surplus because retailers are rationing by "limiting hard drive purchases to 1-2 drives per person," there is no gouging.
A more subjective definition of gouging is setting the price higher than some person is comfortable with. The term is often
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How do you know this isn't a response to customers trying to hoard drives due to the anticipation of a shortage?
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There is no shortage because retailers are hiking prices. The price mechanism [wikipedia.org] is how a free market efficiently allocates limited resources.
If there were a shortage, it would be because the price is set below the going rate determined by supply and demand [wikipedia.org]. If you don't want a shortage, simply raise the price as necessary to prevent the shortage. This is what the retailers are doing.
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Efficiency and progress is ours once more
Now that we have the Neutron bomb
It's nice and quick and clean and gets things done
Away with excess enemy
But no less value to property
No sense in war but perfect sense at home:
The sun beams down on a brand new day
No more welfare tax to pay
Unsightly slums gone up in flashing light
Jobless millions whisked away
At last we have more room to play
All systems go to kill the poor tonight
Gonna Kill kill kill kill Kill the poor:Tonight
Behold the sparkle of champag
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An unregulated economy produces a bell curve. The low end of ity starves to death unless it resorts to crime.
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You left out the other quaint aspects of the 19th century like child labor, families rendered destitute when the breadwinner was hurt or killed in an unsafe workplace, 18/7 work just to make ends meet, etc followed by a crash that forced the new deal to get things moving again.
Great deals of deregulation do typically lead to a boom, followed shortly by a crash.
The intrinsic problem with a completely free economy is that wealth attracts wealth and poverty attracts poverty. If you don't temper that with regul
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It definitely beats artificial rationing.
but it is rationed, from the summary :
even limiting hard drive purchases to 1-2 drives per person.
So it is then an hybrid approach to resource allocation. A market operating under regulations...
Hybrid approaches that takes into account the wide spectrum of behaviours generated by life/physics/the universe random number generator know as god, are almost always better than those that repose on a binary world view that classify things in us/them, good/evil,etc... Most Manichean solutions to societal problems usually ends up in worsening them.
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It's likely only retailers who are limiting numbers of purchases. If you are big enough to really need a large quantity of drives, then you can buy from a wholesaler, or direct, and they'll probably sell as many as you would want.
The point of the rationing is that the retailers want to prevent speculative hoarding, where someone hears that the price has gone up, buys all they can, and then sells just a few at a higher price. (Reducing supply further, as they aren't actually doing anything with the drives,
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no, I disagree, regulations when used moderately, can transform a Weibull(lambda>1,k>2) [wikipedia.org] shaped resource distribution function into a Weibull [barringer1.com](1>lambda>0,k<2) ressource distribution function. You evidently want to avoid the pure communist limit(Weibull(lambda,k<2),lambda,0) resource distribution function but unless you are in the top a%, why would you choose the first one over the second one ?
I used Weibull as an example as it can approximate a lot of distributions just by tweaking lambda a
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I think you are confusing "truly need" with "rich".
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Well I never said that it is impossible to find an example of a potential customer that is both richer then average and of higher need then average. Of course like how a broken clock is right twice a day, a broken theory can have a few situations where it is right.
I am simply pointing out that raising the price of anything simply reduces its market and has nothing or very little to do with distribution to the ones who need it the most. And of course if you are rich enough then no matter the price you will f
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this is artificial scarcity that you are talking about, because most of the problems in places like that are government (or whatever passes for a government) created. There are no free markets there, so there is no real price discovery, the places are used for their valuable mining resources most likely and the economies are not allowed to grow and improve because certain power brokers get their hands upon those economies by proxy and endorse various dictators and sell them cheap weapons to hold the people
Re:Price discovery make distribution efficient (Score:5, Funny)
What you have here in your comment, is basic misunderstanding of economics and politics.
Welcome to Slashdot!
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I'm still not seeing how this isn't screwing the poor people.
- what do you want? Confiscation and distribution of products that were created to make profit based on your idea of what is 'fair'? Why do you think poor should be able to get something they can't pay for, I don't follow?
The hard drives they need for their own 'productivity' are being redistributed to the rich.
- the supply/demand curve now meets at a higher price point, this cuts off those, who don't particularly need the drives at those prices, and it still allows those who really need the drives to be able to get them.
If prices are not raised here is what happens:
1. Anybody gets a drive at t
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I don't agree that it is stupid. They sell more than HDDs. If I am building a system and can't get my hands on an HDD I'm not buying the other components either.
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Raising the prices would actually reduce profitability. Someone who just wants 1 drive now to build a system may be willing to pay a 40% premium, but not 100%. They wouldn't have bought 2 anyway.
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And what they discovered is that an artificial limit is more profitable than gouging harder.
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If it isn't true, why'd they do it?
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I think you missed the point. They aren't trying to make sure everyone gets a drive. They aren't trying to get things into the hands of people who need them most. They are trying to maximize their profits. HDDs are only a single category in their inventory. Other categories are closely related to HDDs: OEM Windows, motherboards, hardware raid, memory, cases, etc.
If they sell 20 drives to a guy who really *needs* a RAID, they'll sell him the drives (at a possibly steeper premium) and one set of hardware to g
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The idea that need can be determined by bid price assumes everyone has equal resources with which to bid.
If someone is auctioning off a steak, and you are starving and have no money and I am wealthy and not hungry, the fact that I can bid $5 for the steak and you can bid $1 does not mean I need it five times more than you.
Quite the opposite, in fact.
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If you are hungry and have $1 only and this stake is $5, it doesn't mean that you have a 'moral' right to that stake.
If steak is the only, or cheapest, food source, then you *do* have a moral right to the steak.* You just don't have the resources to afford it.
Face it - markets may be efficient in terms of short-term allocation of money value, but they are blind to morality. If you accept market outcomes as always being the "best" outcome, then you're ignoring moral values. It's up to you to decide if moral values are important to you.
*assuming that human life is morally superior to money. Everyone else who is hungry a
Can you say gouge? (Score:4, Insightful)
Jesus titty fucking christ.
From 75 to 100 dollars in one day. http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822136697
Its like the industry is begging for SSDs to take their market. /begging/
This isn't supply shortage it's price gouging. The industry has consolidated to four players, and one of them only makes laptop drives. Expect more of this shit in the future. Expect an SEC probe too and finding of price fixing, followed by a slap on the wrist a decade later. Fire in a dram factory anyone? Fuck me.
the invisible telepathic hand (Score:2)
It's not a big step from the invisible hand (hard enough to conceptualize) to the invisible telepathic hand, where markets allocate goods to their highest utility without the price ever changing.
Interesting to watch loss aversion shuttle the pea under the conspiracy shell after a tourettic stir fry in the amygdala.
What do you mean nothing was done (Score:2)
They got sued for collusion and price fixing, and lost. Took a long time, of course, the law doesn't tend to move fast, but it happened. I received notice of the suit and eventually a tiny part of the settlement back in the day.
Don't go claiming "nothing happened" for an incident just because you didn't hear about it. Most things aren't front page news.
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Are you referring to the accidentally on purpose fire in the Japanese memory factory in the 90's?
You mean Taiwan earthquake of 1999?
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1993 price bump was barely 20%, 1999 price bump was >300%
http://www.jcmit.com/memoryprice.htm [jcmit.com]
Finally (Score:5, Funny)
My scheme of buying computer parts to sell them on at a later date finally pays off.
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Hmm, maybe I should put the 4x 3TB I bought two weeks ago up on eBay and see what they'll fetch...
But seriously, this is going to hurt the industry. At my job we use huge numbers of HDDs. I hope there won't be a real shortage, "just" price hikes.
Also, people are dying (Score:5, Insightful)
Over 300 people have died (not huge, I know, but still not small... and the fact that I can say with all honesty that 300 deaths seems small says volumes by itself), homes and lives are ruined, ancient temples are threatened... and what Americans are most worried about is the fact that they have to pay an extra 20-30% for hard drives. Just to put this in perspective. TFA does at least have the decency to issue a "our hearts go out blah blah" at the end.
Just watch, the next story will be something about Occupy Wall Street and people protesting those huge companies and all the cheap goods they make. Really, Americans (and most of the rest of the world) really need to look closely at the consumerism that has overcome our culture to the point people dying seems far less significant than money. I realize this is a tech/ nerd site (so it wouldn't focus on the deaths anyways), but still, this is the second story about this with no mention (as far as I remember) about all the other effects this flooding is having.
Re:Also, people are dying (Score:5, Interesting)
The Occupy protests are centered around the fact that the wealth distribution in the United States is ranked about the same as Uguanda; Half the wealth in this country is controlled by approximately 1% of the population, which is the reason for the slogan "We are the 99%". Occupiers have been protesting financial institutions, especially banks.
Now if you hadn't had gone and shot your mouth off about something you clearly don't know anything about, I might have had a bit more sympathy for the rest of your argument. However, I'm going to have to mercilessly gut it now because I am the 99%, and I also have a healthy respect for capitalism -- within limits.
300 lives is nothing. About 120 die every day in auto accidents. Americans are more worried about gas prices there too. Is that because they're heartless? No, it's because those 300, or 120, or a hundred million lives are abstract people. I've never met them. You haven't met them. Nobody who reads this is very likely to have met them. They lived in total obscurity and then some natural disaster came along and went squish, and that was that. They have had little to no bearing on my life, or yours, or anyone's here. But the price of those goods -- that is something tangible, noticable, and therefore real.
You're bitching about human nature here, man. You're like Bono from U2. Nobody gives a damn about them and they shouldn't. They can't. We all got only a limited amount of time on this earth, and a limited amount of resources, emotional or otherwise. And the overwhelming majority of people are going to invest their emotions in things that are real, tangible, and close to them.
Now next time you feel like trying to go and take the moral high ground, don't piss on someone else's back and then say it's raining, mmkays?
No kidding (Score:3)
I dislike when people try and pretend that they feel the loss of every human life with the same tragedy. No, you don't. If you did you'd never accomplish anything because when you lose someone close to you it is amazingly tragic, and people die literally every second for all kinds of reasons. You just don't feel the same. The closer someone is to you, the more it matters.
The reason we feel for large tragedies is because of the scale. When hundreds of thousands die, we feel the scale of that, even if we knew
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Different people have different priorities. Some may not care too much about the lives of a select few strangers because those strangers don't influence their lives in any way. Though, the increase in hard drive costs might.
People die all the time. When it's a stranger (especially one from another country), I doubt the average person cares too much about it.
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I do feel ashamed that the first I heard of this natural disaster / tragedy is from a news story about the price of hard drives. Thanks for drawing attention to the important part of this story.
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I just made 25% on STX stock this week. (and I don't need any drives right now.) In two weeks other plants will cover this "shortage".
I don't live in a flood zone, so I don't even pay flood insurance, much less die in floods. If you want to save humanity have them move the freakin HDD factory back to my neighborhoods industrial park and I will gladly work there. p.s. - not New Orleans.
Capitalism is about making the right choices, not crying about
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The tipping point to SSD's? (Score:2)
SSD's have been gaining on hard drives for some time for a number of reasons, but price has been the primary area where HDD's could compete. With this event causing HDD's to be more expensive, is it finally the tipping point to SSD for most consumer products?
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They exist, but the 1TB SSDs are really expensive. There was a story about OCZ's new one like yesterday.
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Actually I do see a tipping point coming. SSDs are getting there with a capacity that's totally fine for a laptop as long as you don't want to carry all your movies and rips around (just a few.) Lowish-end SSDs can be had for about $1/GB retail. I had a 160GB HD in my last netbook (which I never needed) and the new one has 250GB, probably because that was the low end or the sweet spot for the manufacturer. But 60GB would be completely OK - I'd actually prefer a 60GB SSD over a 250GB HD any day. And the pric
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Day late.. dollar(s) short (Score:3)
And i needed a couple of new drives.. i guess i will just wait.
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It's unfortunate. (Score:2)
Unfortunate their manufacturing is in a place where stuff like that can happen. Oh well.
Hmm... (Score:2)
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In name only. TigerDirect acquired the rotting corpse of CompUSA when they went tits-up and closed most (all?) of their stores a few years back. So CompUSA is effectively TigerDirect's B&M division now. They've been (re)opening CompUSA stores in a few areas (mostly Florida, Texas, and Illinois) over the past couple of years; the one near me used to be TigerDirect's Chicago-area outlet store (so they basically just changed the sign on the front from TigerDirect to CompUSA).
The store itself is actually ki
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I've got a love-hate relationship with the place. If you can imagine "Best Buy's computer/TV/camera department meets dingy flea market, with prices that are sometimes comparable to Newegg's (but usually just a bit higher, and occasionally lower), and highly variable customer service that will eventually drive you to drink" you've got a pretty good idea of the ambiance of the "new" CompUSA.
My most surreal (as opposed to frustrating... heh) experience there in recent memory was the time a year or two ago when
Don't make them in unstable Third World countries. (Score:2)
You're asking for trouble when you've got factories in a region that is prone to flooding *and* civil conflicts.
Perhaps closing that First World factory wasn't wise after all.
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Went to buy a 2TB hard disk today. The price was 50% higher than yesterday. Got a 750GB 2.5" external hard disk instead, which cost the same as before the flood. Damn disaster profiteers.
Yep. But did you really have to buy now?
I'm putting my purchase off for a bit. The flood didn't damage the HDD plant, once they have power back it'll be business as usual.
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What am I bid for this classic 5 MB 5 1/4 Full Height drive?!? Muah ha ha ha haaaa!
Of course I'm kidding - it's a collectors item!!
Not quite how commodity speculators work (Score:3)
If you were a commodity speculator, you'd have placed an order for way more than one hard drive a month ago for later delivery, and you'd be selling the right to have the billing and shipping information changed. You would never, yourself, actually have the ability to pay for, accept delivery of, or use, those drives.
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I bought 6 Seagate Savvio 300GB (2.5" SAS 10k spin) drives yesterday. They were $199 (relatively cheap) and now are $267 or higher at most eTailers.
I'm sure most of it's fear mongering but some "analysts" have suggested it may take "several quarters" for the drive mfg's to recover from this. So I figured why chance it and bought what I needed rather than deal with potential inflation for 2 years.
As the economic model plays out (unlike the ways politicians make stuff up) if other manufacturers have untapped capacity they will ramp up their capacity to take advantage of realizing higher sales (and potentially profit) The market is elastic and prices will adjust again. (This is the stuff I found so utterly fascinating while studying economics, when you see real markets behave as expected.)
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Well, in 1991 I bought a 1GB drive from Andataco for $2700, a year later bought a 2GB drive for $2700. I remember oe of my EE friends telling me that we were at the "Physics limit" and could not go any higher in capacity.
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... activate that old and faithful hard disk compressor. (Remember Stacker, SuperStor and DriveSpace?)
Your 2TB hard drive is probably filled with video, audio, or image data that is already compressed (both lossy & lossless, via mpeg, mp3, jpeg, etc). A disk-level compressor will do nothing except slow your system down.
Speaking seriously - is this really what we want? Focusing every bit of hardware on one single source? Shit happens everywhere, every time - are we going the right path on this extreme geographical source of goods dependency?
Here are your choices:
1) Pay $50/TB for storage, and plan ahead so you always have enough storage for the next few months.
2) Pay $50/TB for storage, usually, unless the factory has a disaster that bumps the price to $100/TB for a couple of months, and you have to buy storage right now be
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Moral of this story? Wait until the prices come down if you can.
Alternative moral: Always have enough spare storage to make it through a 3-month price hike.