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Submission + - SPAM: When will AI surpass human intelligence? 2

destinyland writes: 21 AI experts have predicted the date for four artificial intelligence milestones. Seven predict AIs will achieve Nobel prize-winning performance within 20 years, while five predict that will be accompanied by superhuman intelligence. (The other milestones are passing a 3rd grade-level test, and passing a Turing test.) One also predicted that in 30 years, "virtually all the intellectual work that is done by trained human beings...can be done by computers for pennies an hour," adding that AI "is likely to eliminate almost all of today's decently paying jobs." The experts also estimated the probability that an AI passing a Turing test would result in an outcome that's bad for humanity...and four estimated that probability was greater than 60% — regardless of whether the developer was private, military, or even open source.
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When will AI surpass human intelligence?

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  • ... but not in human terms, and there we could see. But the 4 tests named there are basically human, depends a lot on a bag of culture, memes, personality, emotions, etc that we all carry.

    IFyou do a "generic" AI, tell it (not by changing its code) i.e. the rules of chess or other games, and not only gets the concept but is able to win over most human players, you are stepping into more solid ground than i.e. passing a turing test (unless what you really want is an artificial human intelligence)

What is algebra, exactly? Is it one of those three-cornered things? -- J.M. Barrie