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Power The Almighty Buck United States

Electricity Bills Forecasted To Climb With Summer Heat (theverge.com) 81

Posted by BeauHD from the what-to-expect dept.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Americans' monthly electricity bills to average $173 between June through August, compared to $168 last summer. "The slight bump in costs comes from consumers cranking up their air conditioning more to cope with a warmer season than last year," writes The Verge's Justine Calma. "Bills would have jumped higher, if not for lower residential electricity prices helping to balance out some of the increased energy use from air conditioning." From the report: Some regions are likely to be harder hit by the weather than others. Because of heat and humidity along the Gulf Coast, residents in Southern states typically use the most electricity in the summer to cool their homes. The Pacific Coast, meanwhile, faces the biggest potential percentage increase in retail electricity prices in the nation -- a 7 percent jump since last year. Wholesale electricity costs there have risen since 2022, in part because of a heat and drought-induced shortfall in hydroelectricity generation. Households along the Pacific could see their electricity bills go up an average of $11 per month this summer, according to the EIA.

To be sure, the EIA says that weather is "the main source of uncertainty" in its forecasts for folks' utility bills. If this summer winds up being hotter than expected, households could wind up paying even more. Residential electricity use typically peaks in the summer for most of the US because of air conditioning. Extreme heat can even trigger power outages if demand suddenly rises too sharply. California, the Southwest, the Midwest, Texas, and New England are at "elevated risk" of electricity supply shortages during any extreme weather this summer, according to an assessment (PDF) by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.
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Electricity Bills Forecasted To Climb With Summer Heat More

Electricity Bills Forecasted To Climb With Summer Heat

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  • Inflation (Score:5, Interesting)

    by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Friday June 14, 2024 @08:27PM (#64550531)

    $173 between June through August, compared to $168 last summer.

    That's less than CPI inflation.

    So, in real terms, electricity rates will be lower this year.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      That's less than CPI inflation.

      But more than wage "inflation"

      • Sorry to disappoint, but actually wage rises are also above this rate of rise.

        https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]

        • Re:That's not what the data says (Score:4, Interesting)

          by slack_justyb ( 862874 ) on Saturday June 15, 2024 @09:37AM (#64551385)

          Okay it's early for me, but if I read that graph correctly, the Y is rate of change. Which means what you actually want isn't how the two lines are to each other, but what the difference is between the area under the curve for each. You need an integral of this chart to answer what that anon is speaking on.

          Like, if inflation made a product that is $1.00 go to $1.10 (10%) and wages only went from $1.00 to $1.03 (2.5%) one year and then $1.10 product went to $1.14 (3.5%) and wages went to $1.08 (5%). Yeah, wage increase is above the price increase, but the wage doesn't pay the same as the inflated good when both started at $1 each. That's why you need the area under the curve for each. The products sum (minus initial value) is $0.14 and the wages sum (again minus initial) is $0.08, meaning a difference of $0.06 inflated, which makes an effective 6% inflated value versus the starting point, even though wages are technically growing faster than inflation.

          So if we use that chart you've given, the answer to the person's point isn't that chart, it's the area under the curve of that chart.

          That said, I've not measured, I'm not measuring, I'm having no place in this debate. But I did want to point out that, that chart isn't a good direct reply to the person you were replying to. It's not a bad one, but it isn't a good one. Because they're talking about one thing and you've given a graph on something related but not exactly the same thing.

          • Thus one is the rate of rise of wages and the other is of prices. If the rate of rise of wages is greater than that of prices, then real incomes - i.e. after inflation - are rising.

            Thus the price of a coffee has risen from $5.00 to $5.15 - a 3% increase - where as wages have risen (for the sake of demonstrating the point) from $50,000 to $52,000... a 4% rise

            Of course this assumes that the CPI and wage data are accurate. Because they are both aggregated over vast numbers of different items this is questionab

    • *We expect that more electricity consumption, resulting from our assumption that summer temperatures will be warmer this year, will be partially offset by lower residential electricity prices in most areas of the country.*

      So yeah cheaper electricity, but higher temps expected, no mention of adjusting for CPI.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by blue trane ( 110704 )

      Why is the article summary selling a scarcity story, when in actual fact most electricity rates are administered by state commissions due to decoupling laws explicitly aimed at decoupling supply from demand for retail prices?

      How come if you look at a Bonneville Power Administration generation graph, you see large consistent unused capacity, only some of which is tapped to send to California, often at negative prices because the BPA produces so much more electricity than it has demand?

      Is there really a scarc

      • decoupling laws explicitly aimed at decoupling supply from demand for retail prices?

        Those laws are dumb.

        Flex pricing that matches supply and demand saves customers money and reduces CO2 emissions.

      • I'll just note that generation capacity isn't the same as transmission capacity and equating the two is a sure way to make the wrong assumptions about how things work.

    • Depends on where you live. I have a 580 sq ft house and my rates average $500+ in the summer. One word to explain why: California.

      • I have a PV and battery system here in Austria and my house is basically on zero consumption between April and end of October. The ACs are running full time during the day in summer (6 ac outlets)

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by haruchai ( 17472 )

          I have a PV and battery system here in Austria and my house is basically on zero consumption between April and end of October. The ACs are running full time during the day in summer (6 ac outlets)

          How much did you pay for that setup, how long to pay it off & how much do you pay when it's not operating?

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by Entrope ( 68843 )

          That's nice, but compare the climatic ranges:
          Austria [climatestotravel.com]
          California (Los Angeles) [climatestotravel.com]
          Missouri (Kansas City) [climatestotravel.com]

          Summers in much of the US are much warmer than in Austria; the average summer high temperatures for you are between 20 and 25 degrees C, with LA 5 degC warmer and KC 10 degC warmer. In the US, the recommended AC setting during the summer is just above 25 degrees C (it's 78 degrees F, vs 68 degrees F for heating in the winter). On average Austria meets that just by staying at the outdoor temperature; the US ne

    • Thankfully, we are informed that wind and solar power is much cheaper than coal, gas or nuclear power. With the IRA and the rapid build-out of renewables, we can look forward to ever cheaper energy and lower bills!

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by kenh ( 9056 )

        Thankfully, we are informed that wind and solar power is much cheaper than coal, gas or nuclear power.

        Oh, great, so we can stop subsidizing the research, development, manufacture, installation, and purchase of wind and solar systems? That would be great, since, you know, they are so much cheaper than the other options...

    • On my recent PG&E bill they show therms and KW use for the billing month and the same data from last years bill. I used almost identical therms last year and 2.1 KW / day, -13%, less than last year. But the bill was 68.38$ more, a 19.2% RISE from last year. NO electric car for me. Maybe the Toyota Rav4 hybrid...

  • Worst headline ever? (Score:5, Funny)

    by thecombatwombat ( 571826 ) on Friday June 14, 2024 @08:36PM (#64550551)

    "Electricity prices are down."

    "I know, let's write an article that says bills will rise this year, it's technically maybe true if you squint at it."

    "That'll rile people up, are we journalists now?"

    "No, we're The Verge."

    • And those lower electric prices are due in large part to the winter that wasn't, which has led to a glut of stored natural gas. It's expensive to dial production up and down, so extraction companies have largely decided to "ride it out" and keep extracting. At one point gas was just over $1/mmbtu in much of the country. That's basically below production cost. This weather is correcting a lucky supply imbalance.

      My fear is we aren't quite out of scheduled outage season yet, especially further north. This even

  • Lower prices (Score:2, Offtopic)

    by penguinoid ( 724646 )

    $173 compared to $168... lower residential electricity prices helping to balance out some of the increased energy use from air conditioning

    "Bills to rise" for the headlines. I wonder how it compares in CO2, do the ACs beat the solar panels?

    • Specifically small scale solar installations (residential roof top installations).

      Solar panels work very well with air conditioners as the bulk of the AC load lines up with the peak production of solar panels.

      Providing you have an inverter style AC (not sure on the popularity in the US but certainly in Australia it is a common feature) the compressor is constantly running but the load is nearly constant (not cycling on/off). The amount of solar panels should be sized for the average day-time summer load, ex

      • yeah the US is absolutely stupid about much of this. Our rates are basically fixed. In VA, there's a 'summer schedule' and a 'winter schedule' for rates. Some people can get a 'special' schedule that charges 3 diff rates per day high/day med/late morn late evening and low/overnight, but the vast majority of people have the same rate all day and night long.

        Solar can be sized bigger but you're correct not for being paid, better off for if you have a battery bank to use.

        And here it takes literally
  • Be happy you don't live in Germany. They pay way more without even needing AC. Mostly. Yet.

  • an expression that has something to do with Sherlock.

  • Not for me (Score:5, Interesting)

    by aergern ( 127031 ) on Friday June 14, 2024 @08:58PM (#64550583)

    Solar array and a massive battery means PG&E pays me. heh.

    • But how much did you pay for that installation? Over US$10,000?

      • In Soviet Russia, would the installation pay YOU?

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by Entrope ( 68843 )

          Exaggerating the OP illuminates why the other person asked that question: "I built a nuclear reactor in my back yard, and now the power company pays me a lot every month!" That doesn't mean building a nuclear reactor is a good way to cut one's power bill.

  • In VA, the state gas provider actually charges you a fee for not using *enough* natural gas in the, ahem, warmer winters. Weather Normalization Adjustment (WNA) [washingtongas.com]

    When the weather during the winter months is warmer than normal, customers' gas usage and bills tend to be lower - this means a shortfall in the company's revenue. With WNA, Washington Gas is allowed to recover the revenue loss by placing a surcharge on the customer's bill

    Utter bullshit that THEIR PRODUCT is causing the warmer winters so we have t

    • Easily solved, disconnect from the gas utility.

      • It's funny b/c I'm literally *trying* to do just that. We put in a heat pump water heater last year so no need for gas until winter.

        Called in April they were like, "sure we'll just pause your account, there won't be any charges". Cool.

        May bill shows up with no usage but the $14 'service charge'. Uh, hello? This time the rep is like, "uh, pausing is just like when you want to do work so you need it shut off". Well ok, then cancel my account and I want that charge credited. (in Sept/Oct whe

        • That sounds like the battle I had with Dish to shut down the satellite TV.

          I feel your pain.

          Come to think of it, getting rid of Frontier's land line was a battle too.

  • >"The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Americans' monthly electricity bills to average $173 between June through August, compared to $168 last summer. "

    I *wish* it were that low. My average was $188 average summer bill LAST year (around 1400 kWh/mo) for one person. SEER 18, variable speed, set at 77F. Insulation in most places, but not in the cathedral ceiling over the great room, where the afternoon sun hits and just bakes it. 1850 sqft ranch with 3 ton unit, it falls behind around at

  • I'm so tired of hearing this bullshit (Score:5, Interesting)

    by nehumanuscrede ( 624750 ) on Friday June 14, 2024 @09:54PM (#64550655)

    My electricity costs are 1.5x what I was paying two years ago.

    " It must be Climate Change ! " says all of the Media so it MUST be true :|

    I'm sure it has absolutely NOTHING to do with demand being kept artificially high by the Bit Coin Bros who eat more electricity than half the State.
    Funny how my cost per KwH jumped once the BCB's moved in and set up shop :|

    My electricity USE hasn't increased at all. ( Yes I track it ) But I'm paying a lot more for the same electricity all so someone else can mine digital
    bullshit and make $$$.

    • Thank you for doing your patriotic duty! Comrade Trump says producing bitcoin in the US of A helps ensure American energy dominance. How producing bitcoin ensures American energy dominance is not well explained, but you want American energy dominance, right?

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by gtall ( 79522 )

        By now, the former alleged president has auctioned off all the real estate on his ass to the oil companies for lip-kissing services.

  • You'd think with all the extra solar installations and them giving their power to the grid, especially in the summer when we have more sunlight, that would offset this some. I'm sure it would if they were not trying to make more profits...
  • Water is wet, the sky is blue, grass is green, and obvious shit is obvious.
  • Sure some areas can't do that because of high ground water or routine flooding (why build there at all), but I must say that living in a house whereby the ground level is half buried into a hill makes that lower level of the house very stable both in the hot summer and cold of winter.

    In the winter it takes less heat because the ground is insulating that wall, and the same thing in the summer.

    I know no one wants to live underground but if you can at least sink one wall of a house a bit into a hill, but

  • "Residential electricity use typically peaks in the summer for most of the US because of air conditioning. "

    The "most of the US" surprised me. My wintertime electric bill is twice the summertime one. AC mode in the summer is a few hours a day for a couple dozen days a year. The heat pump is in heating mode all day every day from October until May.

    Hell, global warming is taking a few days off around here. The snow level will be dropping to 4500 ft and it'll around 40 in the lowlands by morning. The heat pump

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by gtall ( 79522 )

      Where I live the electric company charges more in the winter. Their argument is that we use less electricity in the winter so they much charge us more. Uh...thank you!!

  • The market. And there's nothing you can do about it.

    Offer and demand. Cooling is more expensive than heating.

  • The Pacific Coast, meanwhile, faces the biggest potential percentage increase in retail electricity prices in the nation -- a 7 percent jump since last year. Wholesale electricity costs there have risen since 2022, in part because of a heat and drought-induced shortfall in hydroelectricity generation.

    Here in Humboldt the go-ahead has been given for offshore wind because PGE has announced that they are not going to build any generation facilities here, and they are also not going to expand transmission lines to here. They could have been one of the pioneers but they voted it down last time. Right now if you want service you have to buy a property that's already connected, and you're not going to get it upgraded either so it'd better be at least 200A already.

  • Water is still wet.

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