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Power United States

California Exceeds 100% of Energy Demand With Renewables Over a Record 45 Days (electrek.co) 155

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Electrek: In a major clean energy benchmark, wind, solar, and hydro exceeded 100% of demand on California's main grid for 69 of the past 75 days. Stanford University professor of civil and environmental engineering Mark Z. Jacobson continues to track California's renewables performance – and it's still exciting. In an update today on Twitter (X), Jacobson reports that California has now exceeded 100% of energy demand with renewables over a record 45 days straight, and 69 out of 75. [...]

Jacobson predicted on April 4 that California will entirely be on renewables and battery storage 24/7 by 2035. California passed a law that commits to achieving 100% net zero electricity by 2045. Will it beat that goal by a decade? We hope so. It's going to be exciting to watch.
Further reading: California Exceeds 100% of Energy Demand With Renewables Over a Record 30 Days
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California Exceeds 100% of Energy Demand With Renewables Over a Record 45 Days

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  • PG&E (Score:5, Funny)

    by Revek ( 133289 ) on Tuesday May 21, 2024 @11:37PM (#64489375)
    Welp, time to raise rates again.
    • Re:PG&E (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday May 21, 2024 @11:50PM (#64489399)

      They're trying to force me off net metering and onto time of use metering, using some excuses about upgrading my equipment when they replace a utility pole that is 15 years overdue for replacement (from the 1970's). I believe they are doing this because want to pay me wholesale daytime rates for solar instead of subtracting my solar generation from the end of my total usage. It's about their profit and about changing the deal on customers.

      • Re:PG&E (Score:5, Insightful)

        by _0x0nyadesu ( 7184652 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @12:10AM (#64489423)

        The irony of these two comments is that rates are being raised precisely because they need to make payouts to solar owners while also building out new battery infrastructure and burying old lines to mitigate fire risks. As the amount of solar on the market reaches saturation as it currently has you end up with too much energy during peak solar generation hours.

        You can always get some batteries and go completely off grid by stopping all payments on your bills. What are they gonna do? Disconnect you? /s

        • I do wish battery technology could improve. Going with hybrid systems is a great way not just to get some cash via energy production, but be able to be 100% self-sufficient. Right now, for many homes, this isn't possible due to the energy demand that A/C gives, but with better battery storage and new cooling methods [youtube.com] that can use solar to push coolant similar to absorption refrigerators, having the ability to use minimal grid power to keep cool can be a possibility.

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            I get the impression that most US homes are very poorly insulated. Insulation keeps the heat out during the summer, so you need less AC. It's also quite cheap to install in many cases, so might be a lower cost option than AC. Of course it will also help keep heat in during the winter too.

            • Yep, that's a huge problem in Spain too. They really need to review new building legislation & to offer help to retrofit existing buildings. The really old stone buildings are typically much cooler than modern ones anyway.

              There's also less hot times of the year. Since the electricity price hikes connected with gas shortages a couple of years ago, people have got more into the habit of not putting the air-con when they really don't need to.

              They did pass one law in the south (Andalusia) which means
              • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                That makes a lot of sense, it is so much cheaper to install a solar water heater during construction than to retrofit one.

                I see spot prices for electricity going to near zero in Spain lately. Are those savings not being passed to consumers?

                • Yes, but as I mentioned, many people have got into the habit of conserving electricity by rationalising how they use it. Habits tend to last.
            • It's not just insulation, they also have (on average) vastly lower thermal mass in the walls and roof.
              Plus much of the US is not only hot, but also humid.

              • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                Insulation does help with humidity too. When I had my home insulated the humidity dropped 10-15% immediately.

            • I get the impression that most US homes are very poorly insulated.

              Yes, yes they are. The vast majority of new homes, the ones you think should be half-decently built, are lucky to be six inches thick, in total. That is the entire width of the wall from outside to inside wall board. Then, since we can't have thicker walls, we use the pink fiberglass insulation rather than expanding spray foam which has a far higher insualtion value.

              On top of this, it is imperative that homes have absolutely no s
              • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

                Uh what? Only R value matters.

                My local building code says this:

                Residential requirements for insulation are divided by the location in the home. Framed wall insulation must meet or exceed R-13. For block walls, interior insulation must meet or exceed R-7.8, and exterior insulation must be R-6. Ceiling insulation must be much higher at R-30, and a raised floor must be at least R-13.

                R30 is pretty good. The cost is raise it to R45 or higher is very low for anyone deeply concerned. I live in south Florida in

              • by rykin ( 836525 )
                I have a 50s. brick home and it has no insulation. Sadly, there's only a 3/4" gap behind the plaster, so insulating worth the cost. Insulating a room, a involves removing old walls, new framing and insulation, then new drywall. That doesn't even account for having to move the hot water baseboards I have.

                Hiring someone to only put in new drywall in one room is $2000-3000.

                Meanwhile, my brother had his whole house retrofitted with spray foam for only $4k. So, having a brick house is not a win.

                • by Bumbul ( 7920730 )

                  Hiring someone to only put in new drywall in one room is $2000-3000.

                  If you have your own house, putting in new drywall is one of the easier renovation tasks - you shouldn't need to hire anyone to do it for you.... Even if you spent couple of hours studying the topic and invested few hundred bucks to new tools, it is still worth your time.

                  • This is harder to do well than you think as someone that's done drywall thankfully in a part of the house you can't readily see. Keep in mind, you have to move or extend electrical outlets and any other fixtures.

                    I too know the pain in the arse that is cinder block housing from the 50s albeit my house was built in 1960. Most times you can get away with drilling a couple of holes and putting spray foam into the hollow part of the block. It won't get you all the way but it will at least get you to the point w

            • by orlanz ( 882574 )

              Its not too bad. Not as good as the top countries like UK or Germany, but better than most. Better than the rest of the Americas. This is primarily because Energy is really really cheap in the US. And its not as subsidized as other countries. Its because the energy production & distribution market is very efficient here.

              Because Energy is cheap, the US historically has never had to really be efficient in its usage. Its normal for a 200 m2 home to have one central AC unit and it will handle the load

            • I get the impression that most US homes are very poorly insulated.

              Well, NEW houses being built...have really great insulation....as you go back in time with older homes...they often aren't as well insulated, either by lack of it, or just using older less efficient materials of the day back then.....

              It's not like most people are going to rip out all the walls of their homes to just redo insulation...that would be very $$$ and horribly inconvenient.

            • I get the impression that most US homes are very poorly insulated. Insulation keeps the heat out during the summer, so you need less AC. It's also quite cheap to install in many cases, so might be a lower cost option than AC. Of course it will also help keep heat in during the winter too.

              I'm quite sure it depends on the age of the house. During the energy crisis of the '70s, there was a huge campaign to get people to insulate their attics and walls. Prior to that, few builders bothered (energy was too cheap to make it worthwhile). I'm pretty sure anything built since the mid-80s has substantial insulation, no doubt getting better all the time.

              I have no idea how much that was driven by regulation, energy prices, lobbying on the part of Owens-Corning, and people just wanting more consistent i

        • rates are being raised precisely because they need to make payouts to solar owners

          They are paying the solar owners less than they sell the power for, it's the legacy outmoded polluting plants that can't be throttled within a reasonable time that are screwing up their numbers.

        • You can always get some batteries and go completely off grid by stopping all payments on your bills. What are they gonna do? Disconnect you? /s

          No. Greed N. Corruption will simply lobby to make personal battery banks illegal. For your “safety” of course, not their profits.

          And no. I’m not being sarcastic. Only a matter of time.

      • by Bumbul ( 7920730 )

        They're trying to force me off net metering and onto time of use metering, using some excuses about upgrading my equipment when they replace a utility pole that is 15 years overdue for replacement (from the 1970's). I believe they are doing this because want to pay me wholesale daytime rates for solar instead of subtracting my solar generation from the end of my total usage. It's about their profit and about changing the deal on customers.

        Just curious - is your net metering plan on total level (e.g. monthly consumption/generation), or is the calculation done on a shorter time interval? Here is Finland we have had net metering on hourly level, but we are now moving to 15 minutes' intervals. And yes, for the daytime solar we are getting compensated with hourly market prices (which can be even negative during high solar/wind generation in our geographical area, nordics).

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          In the UK you have a choice of what various different energy providers offer, and some offer 15 minute pricing.

          You can also give them some control over your EV charger, so you set a certain % charge you need by a certain time, and they can pick the hours needed to meet it.

      • They're trying to force me off net metering and onto time of use metering.... I believe they are doing this because want to pay me wholesale daytime rates for solar instead of subtracting my solar generation from the end of my total usage.

        Good. During the daytime solar peak, according to the article we're discussing, they are paying you for producing power that they don't want, don't need, and can't use.

        A regulatory system that forces the utility to pay for power that they can't use is distorting the market, and removes incentives for people to do useful things like install storage capacity and orient their solar arrays in a more useful direction.

        It is way past time that we implement time of use metering.

        • I bet he pays retail for what he uses and gets wholesale for what he generates. I'm surprised ./ers think this is a good deal, regardless of the time of day.

          • I bet he pays retail for what he uses and gets wholesale for what he generates. I'm surprised ./ers think this is a good deal, regardless of the time of day.

            During the solar peak, the energy needed by the utility is zero. The problem here is that the utility is mandated to pay for what they have no use for.

            • No. The problem is that the utility charges customers retail but only pays residential generators wholesale. That's orthogonal to the time of day. Or even the technology, same applies to the handful of wind generators at residential installations. (those are pretty rare because they aren't really cost effective for most)

              I think every one in California with solar panels needs to start saving their pennies to add battery packs to their system. Because it's clear that the utility company is going to keep pushi

              • No. The problem is that the utility charges customers retail but only pays residential generators wholesale.

                That is a sort-of true statement, but that is not the problem. Wholesale is by definition the price electric utilities pay for power; I'm not sure why you think utilities should pay more for solar power than for any other type of power.

                The electricity that the solar power customers generate and use themselves is in effect paying themselves at retail, not wholesale, so if they want to get paid retail, they do so by selling power to themselves.

                In any case, though it makes no sense to have utilities pay for po

      • Pray that they don't alter it further (though it will).
    • by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @09:53AM (#64490441) Homepage

      Alas, the headline is so misleading as to be essentially incorrect. From the link:

      For 45 days straight and 69 of 75, California #WindWaterSolar supply has exceeded demand part of each day.

      Renewable supply did not exceed demand for 45 days straight, it exceeded demand for a portion of the day for 45 days straight,

    • Welp, time to raise rates again.

      Been there, done that. I just checked: California electric rates are about 65% higher than the national averages. I live in the Bay Area and just got back from Louisiana. The most stunning thing was gas prices: gas is almost twice as expensive in the Bay Area ($3.09 vs. $5.50). I think we get so inured to high prices we don't realize just how expensive we make things here.

      I'm not sure how to factor in rooftop solar. If I get half my electricity "for free" (ignore the price of the panels for a moment), maybe

  • EVs (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward

    Tell me how charging my EV is killing the planet and everything about EVs is bad.

    • Re:EVs (Score:4, Insightful)

      by eepok ( 545733 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @12:15PM (#64490903) Homepage

      First: Nobody is saying that.

      Second: Those 45 days noted in the article are some of the lowest energy demand days in California. It's not cold enough to necessitate heaters and it's not hot enough to require air conditioning. This is great progress, but it's not evidence of a solved problem.

      Third: The wildcard in California energy generation will forever be hydro. This winter, we damn near filled up our reservoirs in a big El Nino year, but that came after a mega-drought wherein hydro generation was so reduced that we had to push some CNG plants into overtime. If we're not trying to preserve water for consumption or agriculture, hydro could contribute more power this year... but we're looking at an over-80% chance of a La Nina winter, so don't count on it.

      Fourth: Those of us actually entrenched in the California sustainability industry though are trying to tell everyone that:

      1. We do not have enough energy supply to power a 100% EV California.
      2. We do not have a sufficiently modern grid to transport the massively increased energy from generation to panel **particularly** in light of increasing mandates to transition residences away from natural gas appliances to electric. The two goals work against each other.
      3. We do not have sufficient EV charging ports (public or private). Part of that is because a successful business model is yet to emerge.
      4. Multi-unit dwellings (apartments, etc.) are insufficiently incentivized, mandated, and/or capable of serving a 100% EV residential population. Rentals make up 44% of California's housing inventory.
      5. Remedying all of the shortfalls by over the next 11 years (the 2035 deadline to stop the same of all ICE vehicles in California) will be insanely expensive and, given the lead time on major hardware, all but impossible.

      We're all still working toward the goals, but people need to understand that these goals are aspirational and will come with hefty price tags in electricity bills, taxes, cost of goods, rent, home prices, etc. **It's all worth the work**, but be aware that the days of over-subsidized solar energy and EV fueling/purchasing will soon come to a crashing halt and we're going to have to do deal with the actual costs.

      Success in this endeavor, is neither cheap, easy, nor guaranteed.

  • Wrong criteria (Score:5, Informative)

    by ishmaelflood ( 643277 ) on Tuesday May 21, 2024 @11:58PM (#64489409)

    While it is great that they are somewhat self reliant for renewable electricity, the indicator for how far you've got to go is the minimum renewable contribution.
    As an example the mendicant state, South Australia, frequently bleats about how it is exporting renewable energy. They are rather quieter on the minimum renewable penetration in the state, where wind solar and batteries supply just 14% of the required power. So they need to build 6-7 times more if they are not going to be relying on coal and gas from interstate.
     

    • Re:Wrong criteria (Score:5, Informative)

      by rta ( 559125 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @02:07AM (#64489525)

      This is the same trash headline and reporting that tortures the english language that we got a few weeks ago when it was at 34..

      it should be "California peaks over 100% demand with renewables on 45 consecutive days for periods of 15min to n hours each of those days" (i don't know what the range is this time).

      • Re: Wrong criteria (Score:3, Informative)

        by guruevi ( 827432 )

        The headline should read, despite massive investments to well over 150% of demand in nameplate capacity solar/wind still only supplies 15% of total demand in California.

        It is actually close to the exact same limit that the Germans found, they then went to 200% and now close to 300% nameplate capacity of total demand and still get to about 12-15% total demand on a good year.

  • Meanwhile, Walmarts are full of - well not shoppers, but people escaping the heat. They've got air conditioning at home, but US$0.40 per KWh costs too much to use it anymore. Sigh.

  • Don't get excited... (Score:4, Interesting)

    by bradley13 ( 1118935 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @02:20AM (#64489539) Homepage

    At the time of peak solar, renewable energy exceeded demand. Eyeballing the graphic, that appears to be for about 6 hours a day. That's great, and all, but it's hardly surprising. Nowadays, lots of places have excess solar energy in the early afternoon.

    Build dams and pump reservoirs, and save that energy for the other 18 hours a day. Then we can be impressed.

    • Build dams and pump reservoirs, and save that energy for the other 18 hours a day.

      Might want to do that in a state not suffering extended droughts.

  • by Soolyx ( 8623383 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @02:55AM (#64489569)

    In California, all cars, domestic heaters, and industrial uses are now electric?
    Electricity accounts for around 30% of the consumed energy (see https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid... [eia.gov]).
    Fossil fuels still account for 70% of the energy mix.

  • by Stonefish ( 210962 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @04:56AM (#64489759)

    For reliable power you need from intermittents you need
    Collection storage and generation.
    Collection is wind and solar, but they only collect power when conditions are right.
    Storage is batteries and pumped hydro.
    Generation is fossil gas. You need enough to support 100% of the grid load in case random events align. So you need capacity payments to ensure this generation is always there, and it’s belches CO2.And yes there will be energy droughts and the market is complex enough to root easily.

    Or you have nuclear power, which is CO2 free generation. 24x7 with the highest capacity factor of any generation. This is why Diablo canyon is still around.

    • Base load power like what you're describing for about 10 or 15 years now. You no longer need perfect conditions to generate power from them anymore. Technology has moved on.

      Nuclear power is dead. It's too expensive to do it safely. You could of course do it unsafely but no one in their right mind would allow that. Nobody's going to spend a dime building a safe nuclear power plant when they can build two or three large scale solar or wind farms for the same money.

      I'm not sure if it's just nostalgia f
      • Nuclear power is dead. It's too expensive to do it safely[*].

        [*] Note that for nuclear power "safely" is defined as "100X safer than any other form of power generation".

        • Nuclear power is dead. It's too expensive to do it safely[*].

          [*] Note that for nuclear power "safely" is defined as "100X safer than any other form of power generation".

          Unfortunately, it's pretty much required to be. Solar panels falling over and breaking just makes a mess on the ground. Windmills about the same (like some did in Iowa after a tornado destroyed them). Nuclear plants failing can potentially make an area uninhabitable for centuries, so the safety threshold needs to be higher.

      • by Stonefish ( 210962 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @09:40AM (#64490389)

        Denying the existence of baseload because you like intermittent sources is like denying the existence of gravity because you have your heart set on flying. But ignoring reality will end badly.
        The population wants power when they need it and unreliable grids will remove Governments.
        Business needs 24*7 power because industrial processes rely on equipment that is damaged by power outages.
        Germany choices for power generation have wreaked havoc on its economy and it is now deindustrialising and in recession with 90% of its 2023 CO2 reductions coming from industrial cutbacks and closures.
        Meanwhile France has 1/10 of the CO2 emissions of Germany because they use nuclear, their economy isn’t in recession and the have energy security and independence.

        Heed the allegory of the three little pigs, wind and solar are the houses of straw and sticks and nuclear is the house of bricks. Yes nuclear is harder to build however it delivers power when you want it.

    • by CEC-P ( 10248912 )
      And if it makes them feel better, mine and transport and refine the uranium with electric vehicles or something. Tada.
    • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

      Nuclear power is really only good for baseload, it's not very good at load following. So the words "Or you have nuclear power" is a false dichotomy, unless you're willing to waste fuel to keep the grid up when demand accelerates faster than a nuclear power plant can ramp up.

  • We're at 262 g CO2 per kWh which is still a failure. This project is reducing the amount of peaking natural gas we use, but it is not removing gas from the grid. We're still dirty.
  • Having traveled I-10 from Palm Springs to Arizona for decades, the difference is very stark. Desert Center used to be a wide spot in the road with a few sad looking palm trees and some abandoned buildings. Now, there are solar farms literally as far as the eye can see. What happened to all those endangered species? The solar farms don't build around them. The land was scraped off down to bare mineral so nothing will grow there. Was all the talk about endangered species bullshit or does it no longer matter

    • by whitroth ( 9367 )

      The endangered species, which I'm sure you don't actually care about, are chilling in the shade from the solar panels. Its not like they're houses, built into the ground, forming a wall stopping the endangered species.

  • Fake news (Score:4, Insightful)

    by groobly ( 6155920 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @12:35PM (#64490973)

    Renewables did not exceed 100% of energy demand on *any* of those 45 days. Rather, during some part of the day, about 1/3 of the day, renewables exceeded 100% of *power* demand.

    Story as presented is wrong on two counts: (a) it was not total daily energy, but rather instantaneous power that was exceeded, and (b) it was only for part of the day, not whole day as the wording implies.

    Also, while renewables may have exceeded total power demand during those periods, it does not follow that they actually *supplied* that demand, because the transmission and distribution system has constraints that might prevent that.

    The real news is that California has a large installed renewable power base. That may come back to bite if non-renewables atrophy to the point where demand cannot be met when renewables are *not* meeting 100% or even 60% of power demand.

  • This is great news, even with the caveats (mid-day, etc.). There's some interesting nuance though.

    If you look at the ISO's supply page (https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html) you may note that nuclear trundles along on a flat line at about 1500 MW, and natural gas at 1500-1800 MW. Those are steam and combined-cycle plants that are difficult to ramp the output of quickly, and if shut off (such as in an emergency like a blackout) can take days to bring fully back on line. So they keep running.

The steady state of disks is full. -- Ken Thompson

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