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Power

Renewables Growth Did Not Dent Fossil Fuel Dominance In 2022, Report Says (reuters.com) 261

Fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy market. According to the industry's Statistical Review of World Energy report, global energy demand rose 1% last year, but fossil fuels still accounted for 82% of supply. Reuters reports: The stubborn lead of oil, gas and coal products in covering most energy demand cemented itself in 2022 despite the largest ever increase in renewables capacity at a combined 266 gigawatts, with solar leading wind power growth, the report said. "Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again," said the president of the UK-based global industry body Energy Institute, Juliet Davenport. "We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement."

The annual report, a benchmark for the industry, was published for the first time by the Energy Institute together with consultancies KPMG and Kearny after they took it over from BP (BP.L), which had authored the report since the 1950s. Scientists say the world needs to cut greenhouse gas emissions by around 43% by 2030 from 2019 levels to have any hope of meeting the international Paris Agreement goal of keeping warming well below 2C above pre-industrial levels.
You can view some highlights from the report here.
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Renewables Growth Did Not Dent Fossil Fuel Dominance In 2022, Report Says

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  • by Maxo-Texas ( 864189 ) on Monday June 26, 2023 @09:01PM (#63635454)

    Ev's are at 4.6% of the new car market and are projected to be 10% by 2025 and over a third will be EV by 2030.

    see:
    âExplosiveâ(TM) growth means one in three new cars will be electric by 2030, IEA says

    To summarize, ev sales have been growing much faster than projected. Based on actual sales in 2023, expected 2030 sales were revised upwards earlier this year.

    ---
    My take: As ICE cars lose their network effect (and both maintaining them and fueling them gets more expensive), people will shift away from ICE even faster in the future. The automotive mechanic field will be less attractive and sometime between 2023 and 2030, I think EV will have longer range than ICE cars. On top of that , the number of gasoline stations will decline, prices will increase, and ICE car owners will start to have a bit of range anxiety. Finally, new kids- familiar with electric scooters and bicycles will more naturally transition to electric vehicles.

    • by kenh ( 9056 ) on Monday June 26, 2023 @09:34PM (#63635522) Homepage Journal

      A car, properly designed & built has a useful life of about 20 years, that means it takes 20 years for a car sold today to eventually be taken off the road. That also means about 5% of the worlds autos are replaced each year.

      So, EV's currently account for almost 5% of new car sales - and when every new car sold is an EV, they will only be increasing the percent of EVs on the road by 5%.

      Don't confuse the *rate* of new car sales with the *percent* of cars on the road.

      Cars bought today will still be on the road in 2043, there are a large number of cars on the road from 2003 still.

      Absent a few more "cash for clunkers" programs like we had her in the US, the vast majority of cars on the road thru 2035 or 2040 will likely still be ICE in my opinion.

    • by armada ( 553343 )
      The developing world will not be buying EVs, The trend will not change for several generations.
      • by Firethorn ( 177587 ) on Monday June 26, 2023 @11:57PM (#63635796) Homepage Journal

        Consider cell phones, smart phones. 3rd world picked them up faster than the developed.

        Also, renewables are more popular because of lack of reliable grids.

        Consider an area where gasoline is hard to get - but an EV can charge using solar or wind power, provide power back to the home during lulls(like at night), etc...

        We probably won't see the same cars being popular, but after a point they'll be better than petrol ones.

        • Consider an area where gasoline is hard to get - but an EV can charge using solar or wind power, provide power back to the home during lulls(like at night), etc...

          In the real world, it is easier for developing countries to rely on gasoline for transportation, because it can be stored and easily refilled. Plus a lot of their cars are actually used ones coming from Western/Northern countries. Go in developing countries in Africa for instance, and count how many Tesla you see on the road.

          What you say makes sense on paper, but the reality is just different for reasons you are not taking into account. As goes the saying: In Theory There Is No Difference Between Theory and

        • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

          because those things actually solved for a lack of infrastructure. In Bush a smart phone is better than a PC because its relatively easy to run and manage even without reliable power. its relatively easy for some bell operator to keep a network of towers online which themselves might have wireless communications uplinks than it is for a utility to keep a grid online or an ISP to run new fiber or even copper.

          Having that connectivity also solved a lot of business infrastructure problems. Mobile banking means

      • by stooo ( 2202012 )

        >> The developing world will not be buying EVs, The trend will not change for several generations.

        Stop assuming BS.

    • Ev's are at 4.6% of the new car market and are projected to be 10% by 2025 and over a third will be EV by 2030.

      see:
      âExplosiveâ(TM) growth means one in three new cars will be electric by 2030, IEA says

      To summarize, ev sales have been growing much faster than projected. Based on actual sales in 2023, expected 2030 sales were revised upwards earlier this year.

      ---
      My take: As ICE cars lose their network effect (and both maintaining them and fueling them gets more expensive), people will shift away from ICE even faster in the future. The automotive mechanic field will be less attractive and sometime between 2023 and 2030, I think EV will have longer range than ICE cars. On top of that , the number of gasoline stations will decline, prices will increase, and ICE car owners will start to have a bit of range anxiety. Finally, new kids- familiar with electric scooters and bicycles will more naturally transition to electric vehicles.

      There are 286 million vehicles on the roads in the US. https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]
      Annual new vehicles sold in the US total in 2022 was about 17 million. So even if 30% of those are EV that's about 6 million EV's added annually and another 12 million ICE's added as well..

      Given cars last an average of 15 years https://news.harvard.edu/gazet... [harvard.edu] there will be hundreds of millions of ICE on the road for many years to come. Gas stations aren't going anywhere, in fact within 10 minutes of my house a new 16

  • You just can't (currently) beat the portability and energy density of hydrocarbons. It's simply a more convenient energy source and no amount of government and NGO play-field tilting is going to change that for the foreseeable future. This is especially true for transportation. Until you can "fill" the energy reservoir in the same amount of time and for the same overall cost to the end user which includes upfront purchase price of the vehicle and operating cost, EVs will always be less desirable. You ca

    • You just can't (currently) beat the portability and energy density of hydrocarbons.

      From what I've heard, you also can't beat how you feel when you're high on meth.

      That still doesn't mean that's a good idea to just keep smoking it. Sometimes in life, you have to forego choices that give you the most short-term satifaction.

    • It's convenient for some uses - I don't have a gasoline powered phone, for example. But technology changes, as can priorities and not cooking the planet should be a priority. I suspect we'll overshoot, though.
  • We need to use more emission free electric cars, heat pumps and stoves that replace fossil fuel alternatives. That will increase the demand for renewable electricity. We need to get people to stop consuming so much energy. But there is no money to be made doing that. So we will continue to try to build our way out of the problem increasing the use of energy from all sources and the consequent increasing greenhouse emissions.
    • by NFN_NLN ( 633283 ) on Monday June 26, 2023 @09:26PM (#63635502)

      > We need to get people to stop consuming so much energy.

      Nonsense. I want to reach Kardashev Type I civilization in my lifetime. We need to harness MORE energy! MORE energy dam it!

    • I recently found this video [youtube.com] showing about 10,000 brand new Chinese electric cars rotting away.

      People have mentioned that there are fields of unused vehicles in other countries, and this is no different from buying up excess food production and burning it in a pit: it keeps production capacity high, prevents farming profits from dropping, and is generally a good thing to do economically.

      But there's a difference: all the Chinese vehicles (*all* of them) are registered - despite being brand new and with no mil

      • I'm pretty sure that 10k cars is a rounding error in China, and who knows, they might be sold off and being used in a year.

        Not the first time it has happened. Hell, we had fields of them(well, normal gas cars) in the USA due to covid. It hit the news because one of the fields caught fire.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        They might not be abandoned at all. Cars are often stored this way before sale, including in Western countries. When they get sold they are sent to the dealer who cleans them and touches up any damage done during storage or shipping.

        The painting stuff could be any number of things. They did some spraying for the 2008 Olympics for cosmetic reasons. Sometimes they do it when building new properties to help them sell - people tend not to want to live near brownfield sites. Or maybe it's just a prank and that g

    • I am amazed also at how very high natural gas costs are compared to electricity. I don't use natural gas myself, but my mom does and the winter heating bills in a relatively warm area is well over $400 a month, whereas electric bill in the sweltering summer is under $100.

  • While not a huge part of global energy production, the 1% growth in global energy consumption likely misses entirely the energy that is produced and consumed on the edge or off-grid by micro-generation sources (solar, wind, micro-hydro), given that population growth was 0.83% in 2022 and energy usage per person is almost certainly not going down. Edge/off grid is growing in under-served 3rd-world markets where it is cheaper to truck in some solar panels once instead of paying for expensive (and easily stolen) copper wiring and be at the mercy of unreliable grid providers.
    • Solar panels don't need copper wires?

      Let me guess, they're wireless?

      Seriously, I think you over-estimate the market penetration if solar cells in underdeveloped third-world nations. The majority of residents don't own their home, and no one (practically speaking) has the money to pay for imported solar panels, nor the ability to protect their solar panel from the greedy ands of the out-of-work copper wire thieves...

  • There's a multi-billion dollar organization dedicated to maintaining the value of the assets that make them a multi-billion dollar organization, and that organization is taking direct action to ensure the value of their assets are maintained in the face of competing and Superior replacements for those assets....
    • by NFN_NLN ( 633283 )

      There's also a ZERO dollar organization dedicated to maintaining the value of the assets of the multi-billion dollar organizations too.
      They're called brain washed environmentalists who *think* nuclear power is wrong. They advocate for shutting down nuclear plants in Germany so they can over pay for natural gas! Yes, you read that right.

      • They aren't ZERO dollar organizations. They are 100 million + organizations. The fossil fuel industry has spent billions funding scumbags like Greenpeace, the Sierra Club, Friends of the Earth, etc, etc have taken huge sums to campaign against nuclear.
      • >> nuclear power is wrong.
        Nuclear power is economically irrelevant going forward. Each kWh costs 4-6x more to produce, and this gap is widening.

        Besides, it is also an unmanageable risk, but that did not stop us in the 70s.

  • by u19925 ( 613350 ) on Tuesday June 27, 2023 @12:37AM (#63635840)

    Current share of renewables is only 1.2% of total energy (not just electricity). So a 25% growth means only 0.25% of total energy shift from fossil fuel (and also from nuclear which fell by 4.4%) to renewable and hence the 82% share of fossil fuel is constant. Renewables (excluding hydro) is growing at a double digit growth rate. It is still years away before a visible shift but once that happens, the fossil fuel percentage will start falling drastically.

  • We can all chip in & collectively buy 35 billion tonnes of carbon offsets each year & then the problem would be solved. That's how it works, right?

    Anyone who comes up with objections to this plan is just a negative Nancy & I just don't have time for you. Go & be critical & unconstructive & make people feel bad somewhere else.

    Did I mention the coal industry has come up with a process for converting coal into hydrogen fuel? Hydrogen's green because it doesn't emit any CO2 when it bur
  • Everyone seems to discount nuclear. That's going to be the most energy dense way (and smallest footprint) to get large scale "clean" energy out there. Plowing down trees or denuding a huge area of vegetation to create solar farms is counter productive.

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