Almost 40% of Domestic Tasks Could Be Done By Robots 'Within Decade' (theguardian.com) 101
An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: A revolution in artificial intelligence could slash the amount of time people spend on household chores and caring, with robots able to perform about 39% of domestic tasks within a decade, according to experts. Tasks such as shopping for groceries were likely to have the most automation, while caring for the young or old was the least likely to be affected by AI, according to a large survey of 65 artificial intelligence (AI) experts in the UK and Japan, who were asked to predict the impact of robots on household chores. But greater automation could result in a "wholesale onslaught on privacy," warned one of the report's authors.
The experts involved in the research, published in the journal Plos One, estimated that only 28% of care work, such as teaching or accompanying a child, or caring for an older relative, would be automated. But they predicted that 60% of the time spent on shopping for groceries would be cut. However, predictions about robots taking over domestic work "in the next 10 years" have been made for several decades, but the reality of a robot able to put out the bins and pick lego up from the floor has remained elusive.
The experts involved in the research, published in the journal Plos One, estimated that only 28% of care work, such as teaching or accompanying a child, or caring for an older relative, would be automated. But they predicted that 60% of the time spent on shopping for groceries would be cut. However, predictions about robots taking over domestic work "in the next 10 years" have been made for several decades, but the reality of a robot able to put out the bins and pick lego up from the floor has remained elusive.
Problem I had was (Score:5, Funny)
It started doing sexual favors for me and then refused to do any other domestic work.
Then after 6 months, it stopped doing that.
Then I found out, by contract, if I get rid of it, the company gets half of all my property and I have to pay them $1200 a month for the next 15 years.
Re: (Score:2)
You divorced your robot, and now you need to pay child support to provide resources to maintain the AI iterations you generated?
Re: (Score:1)
The ongoing licensing fees are going to be a killer until the things achieve conciousness.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Apple iWife.
Re: (Score:2, Offtopic)
Re: (Score:1)
Amazes me how you are so judgmental when you'd probably be the first one to scream, "don't judge me!"
I bet you don't know the first thing about women.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
Kiddo ... I'm old. I have grandkids. I'm drawing on a lifetime of experience with women. I've been with my current girlfriends for a couple decades each. Just how deep is your experience?
Women are not saints made of sugar and spice. Women are not devils. They are humans. And while all women are unique individuals
in their own way, many (most) of them share certain broad behavioral traits due to socialization, our current laws, and their built in wiring that differ from the traits most men share.
Fr
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
Of course... of course.
Run along now.
Re: (Score:1)
This needs more comedy upvoting
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:1)
One of my minor amusements later in life has been to watch or read stories about wealthy women getting extremely angry that they have to pay alimony and share half of their community resources with their spouses.
Re: (Score:2)
What tasks cannot be done by AI in 10 years? (Score:2)
What will the AI corporations pay us to do in a decade or so?
Re: (Score:1)
Surprisingly few people get paid to do domestic tasks now.
Re: (Score:2, Insightful)
What will the AI corporations pay us to do in a decade or so?
Nothing. And that's the problem.
When Henry Ford started building cars 100+ years ago, he paid his employees higher wages than other companies at the time. He didn't do it because he was generous or a nice guy. He did it because he understood a simple reality: the people in his factory weren't just workers, they were also customers. If they made more money they could buy more cars. Unfortunately, this has been completely forgotten by the businesses of today.
For decades, businesses have dreamed
Re:What tasks cannot be done by AI in 10 years? (Score:4, Informative)
That's the myth of Henry Ford. The reality is that like Amazon, Ford paid his workers more than the going rate and then worked them to the bone for it. And they took it because the better pay meant a better life for their families.
Re: What tasks cannot be done by AI in 10 years? (Score:5, Insightful)
Nothing. And that's the problem.
No, it's not. First of all, raise your hand if you have a house maid.
Right, I thought not.
Now, that house maid that you already weren't employing now doesn't have the job that she never had to begin with. Meanwhile, you now have more free time because you're doing fewer household chores.
So why is this a problem?
But now you're going to complain that nursing home staff are out of a job, right? Well first of all, who pays for that? Because most elderly and disabled people actually can't anyways, which is also nothing new. Typically it comes out of social security, which is already looking at problems ahead, and that's assuming they even worked and had social security at all, as very often elderly people don't, but it still comes out of the social security fund regardless, and if the government is lucky, they might be able to recover some of that money by liquidating their assets, i.e. taking their house.
So there are several positives that can come from that alone: Social security might get to continue for at least a few more decades, people who are disabled might actually be able to afford to be disabled because now they're able to be more independent (oh the horror! somebody please think of the jobs!) and finally, robots are less likely to commit elder abuse.
Oh but the hotel staff! How can we forget them? Well, actually it turns out that nobody even wants to do that work if they can help it. And no, it's not that they're not paying enough, it's that nobody wants to do it at all:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articl... [wsj.com]
Turns out that there are a lot of jobs like that. Pay alone doesn't make somebody want to do a job. Rather, if it's good enough, they might reluctantly do it.
Re: (Score:2)
And no, it's not that they're not paying enough
Yes, it is. I guarantee there is a wage at which all available hotel staff positions would be filled.
Re: What tasks cannot be done by AI in 10 years? (Score:2)
Yes and I alluded to this. What you're talking about is basically a price equilibrium. The problem arises from when that equilibrium is higher than what the hotels can pay and still remain profitable. No matter what happens, you can't raise wages higher than that.
Many consumers already think of hotels as being too expensive. This is exactly why some hotels are popping up that don't even offer room service or housekeeping. One Marriott owned hotel I stayed at recently (paid for by my employer) didn't even ha
Re: What tasks cannot be done by AI in 10 years? (Score:2)
Businesses never make a profit, because profit is taxed. Businesses shovel all the money at the owners/directors, then tell the taxman and their own employees that they make no money.
Re: What tasks cannot be done by AI in 10 years (Score:2)
And the only way the thing even works is if there's enough revenue for all equilibriums to be met. For example, the owners want at least x or else they won't bother owning it anymore. Whether they sell or go out of business, the result is the same. And aside from owners, managers want a wage too. And hotel patrons also won't pay more than x.
You know something funny is that people around here think I'm some sort of executive or manager, and proudly proclaim themselves to be members of "the working class". Wh
Re: (Score:2)
Bullshit.
I took a look at some of the things I perform daily. Then I thought about what would a robot need (hardware, as well as software) to perform them.
Like, for example, knowing when my dogs need to go out and pee, how to make the older one actually go out (he's old and sick and sometimes won't go down the stair unless I insist), or when to give him his pill, based on his behavior.
I'd like to see him clean the birds' cage, or my Guinea pigs' enclosure. Or water the flowers (we have many, each with diffe
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
True AI? Of course.
Is it close? Not at all.
Re: What tasks cannot be done by AI in 10 years? (Score:2)
If your assumption is that this leads to some sort of Wall-E utopia, where everyone just gets free robot services, that makes little sense.
Honestly if the doomsday jobless future comes to pass, this is exactly what it would look like. But you're right, it does make no sense. Because there won't be a jobless future. People have been saying this for some 200 odd years, and we're no closer now than at any point in the past.
But I'm sorry that your dream job of being either a stoker or a switchboard operator will never come to pass.
Re: (Score:2)
Before the industrial revolution, employment was close to 100% with all but the few rich folks starting work at 5 odd years old and working until they dropped.
Now, what proportion of the population actually works? Kids spend maybe an average of 20 years not working, people stop working in their mid-60's, lots of people on disability, stay at home mom's who, while raising children and doing housework, are not generating an income like in the old days where they would spend their spare time spinning or such.
Re: What tasks cannot be done by AI in 10 years? (Score:2)
Oh goody (Score:4, Insightful)
That will give people more time to get fatter [youtube.com] looking at their phones.
You know it's true, so don't bother whining.
Re: (Score:1)
> People will get fatter
No, we'll get our exercise beating the crap out of robots that screw up. If we own it, we can pound it.
"I said beer, not bear, you clunky pile of..."
Re: (Score:2)
> People will get fatter
No, we'll get our exercise beating the crap out of robots that screw up. If we own it, we can pound it.
"I said beer, not bear, you clunky pile of..."
You have to admit it's still impressive that the bar bot managed to find a bear so quickly, though, maulings notwithstanding.
Re: (Score:2)
As Eric Cartman says... (Score:2)
... "I'm not fat. I'm big boned."
Re: (Score:3)
Rewriting Roald Dahl:
"I'm not fat, I'm enormous"
Poor Trade (Score:3)
Why would I pay someone to shop for me, when I also use grocery shopping as an excuse to get out of the house?
It's not like I'm going to earn more money by going for a walk instead of going to the store.
And I spend literally one hour a week shopping for my family. I can't imagine for a person who could indeed earn one more hour of income because they didn't have to shop, would be willing to spend what it would cost to automate this.
What am I missing here? This doesn't seem to scale... this sounds like a luxury.
Re: Poor Trade (Score:1)
Damn dude, how fucking dirty is your house?
Re: (Score:2)
The shopping robot won't be owned by you. It will be owned by the grocery store and will be replacing the people currently doing home shopping jobs. The robot will shop the order, load the automated car and it will be delivered to your doorstep or tent. Probably won't even be allowed to go into a grocery store in the future. You'll have to place your order in advance. Maybe, maybe they will let you place orders at a window and get your stuff at a different end of the building.
Re:Poor Trade (Score:4, Insightful)
> Why would I pay someone to shop for me, when I also use grocery shopping as an excuse to get out of the house?
1. Tell "them" that you are going out for shopping.
2. Automate shopping so you don't need to do it
3. Go out of house and do what ever you want
Re: (Score:2)
To clarify what I meant: automating activities that do not create wealth, doesn't obviously create a net benefit to society.
So things like shopping and cleaning and such, which do not create wealth but just move it around, indeed are easy to automate, but they only have a net benefit to society if they reduce costs elsewhere (like reduce risk of injury) or they help use fewer resources to maintain a given standard of living.
I don't know how automated shopping does any of those, unless there is enough reduct
Re: (Score:2)
The robot shopper will actually replace the grocery store home shopping personnel. That will save the company money. The future isn't going to be the Jettsons or i-robot.
Don't be surprised if in the future you are not even allowed inside the grocery store. Why let people come in, they will probably just steal anyway.
That includes the ability to write (Score:3)
...bad predictions for click-bait magazines.
Re: (Score:2)
Definitely looks like AI will be coming after writers' (I don't even call them journalists anymore) jobs before mine.
Already halfway there. (Score:4, Interesting)
I cut 90-95% of groceries tasks since the pandemic begun by ordering online and having them delivered.
And I don't need an AI for that.
Re: (Score:3)
Re: (Score:2)
Having stuff delivered will be much cheaper if self-driving can be figured out.
Self-driving isn't the problem. That's already figured out.
The problem is getting the groceries from the delivery van into your refrigerator.
Re: (Score:2)
Clueless (Score:2)
It's almost like all of their knowledge about current "AI" comes from reading news articles.
Re: (Score:3)
And while "Almost 40% of Domestic Tasks Could Be Done By Robots 'Within Decade'", unfortunately, 95% of "expert" predictions prove to be laughably bad in hindsight. Why exactly are we expecting this batch of predictions to be any different than the last batch?
Do you know what the safe but non-headline-making future prediction is? "There will be some cool new technology, but for the most part, life in 2033 will look very much like life in 2023. Fusion power will still be a few decades away. We still won'
Re: Clueless (Score:2)
Which part of Khazakhstan do you live in? Here in the West, fuel injection replaced carbs in even crappy little family cars in the Eighties and you would be running databases , word processors and spreadsheets on desktops at that time also. Apple didn't invent the telephone, TokTik did not invent motion pictures, Spotify did not invent music.
We've automated spending time with family (Score:2)
We've automated spending time with family so you can get back to mindless office work.
At what cost? (Score:2)
Sure we may be able to build robots capable of doing all those tasks in a decade. But how much will they cost? If a "go get my shopping" robot costs $100,000 then it isn't going to affect anything. Rich people will still send "the help" to do the shopping. Regular folks will keep doing it themselves.
Re: (Score:2)
The store would own it and send it to your house. And the cost of a conventional truck and somebody to drive it could easily exceed $100K in a single year.
Re: (Score:2)
Here these delivery bots bring the groceries somewhere between free* and 0.99€ (* free means the store pays the delivery company and just includes it as cost of doing business).
There are a few delivery only stores, the savings on rent and upkeep are more than enough to pay for the bot. The only gripe I have with them is that they don't really have enough bots and enough contracts with shops/restos/etc. The human delivery companies are way ahead of them
Robotics technology sucks (Score:2)
Nice fantasy, except robotics technology sucks ass. There are a large number of unsolved problems in robotics starting with dextrous hand.
Re: (Score:2)
Well, if we want to play extreme bong hits, 0.00001% also qualifies as almost.
What Domestic Would Remain? (Score:2)
https://osh.sccgov.org/sites/g... [sccgov.org]
If it could be, it would be in Bill Gates' home (Score:5, Insightful)
Take clothes folding, for example. We'd see expensive prototypes in factories or maybe even large hospitals sorting laundry. Cooking is the ultimate task. If a robot could replace a cook, you know MS, Apple, Google, or iRobot, or someone would have them in their kitchens...just for the free publicity of the research and testing.
This is one of those stupid baseless predictions, like flying cars. If this were really happening in 10 years, we'd see cool demos of expensive prototypes as well as big spending industries ordering incredibly similar robots. Any robot that can do a task in your home....a similar robot could do a task in a factory or farm or waste processing plant and make someone a lot of money. They gave an example of grocery shopping...if it could be fully automated, Amazon would have them already packing those boxes, avoiding potential workman's comp cases with employees. Amazon is spending feverishly trying to automate, but really can't automate the whole process...and I doubt that's changing in 7-10 years.
Or Boston Dynamics would show off a prototype... (Score:2)
Call me when they post that video.
Re: (Score:2)
Well, their robots can already dance better than I can [youtu.be]...
Pre-programmed dances are easy, sweeping is not (Score:2)
Call me when they post that video.
It dances. It climbs steps. Does it do domestic tasks?
The profit incentive is too high for this not to be in use somewhere. Someone, somewhere has a lot of money and stands to make more money by automating tasks that are remarkably similar to household chores. 10 years is not a long time for a brand new technology. If it could be done in my home for less than the cost of a luxury car, it would be in partial use somewhere...not dancing on a video. Moving to pre-programmed dance routines is somewhat
Re:If it could be, it would be in Bill Gates' home (Score:5, Insightful)
a robot would be doing them now...not in my home, but in Elon Musk's, Mark Zuckerberg's or Bill Gates'
That makes no sense. The cost of technology is in the R&D, not the production. If they could build one for Bill Gates, then they could easily build a million more at a low marginal cost. The hard part is building the first one.
Seems Implausible (Score:3)
Certainly the potential for a consumer to automate 40% of their tasks won't exist.
For perspective, the first real domestic robot was the dishwasher, which has been around for about 100 years [wikipedia.org].
The next was the robot vacuum cleaner, which has been around for about 20 years [wikipedia.org].
The next after that? The robot lawnmowers? (vacuums with blades).
Now a big laundry list of tasks is supposed to fall when we haven't even seen proof of concepts?
Even the list is a bit odd, since only 33% of those surveyed think we'll have a "dish washing" robot in 5 years.
Is someone planning to uninvent it?
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
You should try living without indoor plumbing, electricity, central heating or processed food from the store. We have already automated 99% of the chores.
Automation and "done by robots" is two different standards.
Either way, outside of more online shopping I don't see a lot of tasks in those lists amendable to automation either.
Weirdly, the one thing I can imagine is ChatGPT style AIs being used as part of child care and elder care. Are there lonely elderly folks who would enjoy a virtual friend to chat with during the day? Though those were near the bottom of the list which makes me think they're thinking actual robotics for the list.
Masturbation (Score:1)
Is masturbation considered a "domestic task" ?
Reality check (Score:2)
The wrong tasks will be automated which do nothing to actually save time or improve quality of life. Also, the respondents to the survey clearly fail to understand where time for "household tasks" goes.
Silly example-- letting my Room a vacuum upstairs saves 20 minutes of vacuuming time, but adds 10 minutes of setup and 5 minutes of restoration work so 'lil Robby does not get hurt or damage anything. And he does a worse job than me!
Now, find me a bathroom cleaning robot or a laundry robot that provides a mea
Re: Reality check (Score:2)
That's already shit that you had to do anyways, you just did it while you were vacuuming, which added time. Mine probably saves a good hour out of my weekend, and also vacuums in places that I wouldn't have bothered with before, but they still needed to be vacuumed because dust bunnies kept coming out of there. E.g. under the bed. So saves an hour of time, plus does a more thorough job.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
For us, we need to keep Robbie from getting tangled up with any wires, strings, floor mats, plants, getting stuck under the (wall mounted) toilet or any other random hazards around the house. It takes about 15 minutues to clear the 1,200 square foot upstairs. He will often find the strings on things in the closet still though. It takes me about 20 minutes to vacuum the upstairs myself.
Sure, if you have a pet it might be the difference between insanity and moderately clean, and if you don't have anything
Not keen on further productivity improvements (Score:1)
until we stop accumulating the benefits at the top.
In 10 years (Score:3)
"In 10 years, we could have a Theory of Everything."
~Stephen Hawking, increasingly jokingly, for the last 50 years of his life.
I hope in 10 years, I still find so much joy in gardening - including mowing my lawn. All those perfectly, daily mowed robotically cut botanical deserts in the neighborhood aren't much of progress. And while I sometimes rather remain put in my sofa, it feels good to take a walk across that neighborhood, have a chat once with someone else who prefers to walk, for grocery shopping or just cos it's good to be outside. And while we chatter and walk, we have a bit of a laugh with the robomower who's stuck again, tilted on a bump, it's wheels spinning in the air until its battery dies, forcing its owner to leave the house cursing at the latest hype that done him in.
Admittedly, I don't like vacuum cleaning, especially the stairs where I have to carry the damn hoover while I reach the hose into every bend and corner. But until further notice, robots are noticeably bad at vacuuming the stairs, and probably still will be, in 10 years.
Another 10 years? (Score:2)
"Experts" (Score:2)
Right after... (Score:2)
the year of the Linux desktop.
Doubtful (Score:2)
The point of the article (Score:2)
No-one noticed this, really? First we had school laptops taking photos of childrens' bedrooms, without telling the parents it was happening. Then robot vacuum cleaners taking photos of rooms. Now we're going to have a camera literally walking around the house while we're dressing or bathing. I guess, if everyone is naked on the internet, it doesn't matter. But I doubt that's what will happen.
Re: (Score:2)
No-one noticed this, really?
Don't worry, it's what The Guardian does. Take any changes to life that could provide benefits and then report them as being about equality, privacy, exploitation, climate change or corruption in public officials.
If the topic is technical, doubly so.
That is how they leverage fear to attract an audience.
Re: (Score:1)
I wish Instacart would be done by robots (Score:2)
Those people get in my way. Robots could be programmed to be more courteous to people shopping for groceries themselves.
I will shop for my own groceries as long as I'm physically able to. Let me know when a robot can clean my toilets and the cat's litter box. Those are the 2 household chores I hate the most.
I'm all for automation and I disagree that it's "unpaid work". It's just more efficient work. Someone has to design, build and maintain the machines.
This isn't one of Grace Slick's best songs, but th
Another solution (Score:2)
If you really want to eliminate domestic tasks, simply become homeless. Ta da!
Does it clean windows ? (Score:3)
And... in other news... (Score:2)
Obesity rates in the developed world reach 95%. Life expectancy drops dramatically.
Robot Governments the world over refuse to accept report on human inactivity that was created by... (wait for it)... humans.
While I can do all the jobs around the home, I will even though I will soon be starting my 8th decade on this planet.
Will they be powered by fusion? (Score:2)
Change to word robot to automated (Score:1)
Our new robot overlords cannot be bothered (Score:2)
Already happening. And has for a while.... (Score:2)
Washing machines, dryers, dishwashers, ovens. Nope, "robots" do not qualify and will not make a dent in the rest. That is just the usual bullshit and I have heard this one before. But as my initial list shows, the number is nonsense anyways.
But...but...but (Score:2)
But 10 years ago they said 50%.
caring (Score:2)
I don't think we should be looking to automate caring away but making it easier would be great.
getting the dog out on a walk is part of why you own a dog
changing an infant's disposable diaper is less of a big deal than I thought it would be before I became a dad, changing an elderly adult is probably significantly more unpleasant
bathing a kid is easy, they are light, I can imagine bathing a partner that is significantly heavier than you when your are in your 70s or 80s is significantly harder and more dange