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IEA: Global Nuclear Power Capacity Must Double By 2050 To Reach Net-Zero Emissions (euronews.com) 223

Global nuclear power capacity needs to double by the mid-century to reach net-zero emissions targets. This will help ensure energy security as governments try to reduce their reliance on imported fossil fuels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. Euronews reports: Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 would give the world a chance of capping temperature rises at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To reach net-zero emissions, nuclear power capacity needs to double to 812 gigawatts (GW) by 2050 from 413 GW early this year, the IEA report specifies. In the 2030s, annual nuclear power capacity will have to reach 27 GW, it added.

As around 260 GW, or 63 percent, of nuclear plants in the world are currently over 30 years old and nearing the end of their initial operation licenses. Although there have been moves in the past three years to extend the lifetimes of plants representing around 10 per cent of the global fleet, nuclear plants in advanced economies could shrink by a third by 2030, the report said. Advanced economies have nearly 70 per cent of global nuclear capacity -- but the problem is the fleet is aging. Investment has stalled and the latest new projects have run far over budget and behind schedule, the report said.

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IEA: Global Nuclear Power Capacity Must Double By 2050 To Reach Net-Zero Emissions

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  • Every 2 decades! (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Evtim ( 1022085 ) on Friday July 01, 2022 @05:08AM (#62665080)

    Every two decades we get a report like that and then nothing happens. One really has to wonder how dire our predicament is so that after so much noise and activism every single "solution" is a) making the problem worse, i.e. bio-fuels, veganism etc. , b) protects the power of states to use energy production as a weapon, i.e. Russia , c) makes energy more expensive and less available stalling economic growth and hurting the poorest, as usual, i.e. EU at the moment and d) makes a ton of money for those who already have much, i.e. fossil fuel companies.

    Missa thinks just about everyone involve in this is a liar and the most insidious liars are the activists. The big business and big government I can understand. Their greed and corruption, delusions and incompetence. But the useful idiots are incomprehensible..

    • In the post-truth society emotions speak louder than facts.
      It's why people don't like nuclear power, think hydrogen power is a good idea and why they will sign petitions to ban dihydrogen-monoxide.
      People are scared of nuclear power, thank flower-power hippies.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Friday July 01, 2022 @07:33AM (#62665262) Homepage Journal

        Nobody likes hydrogen except for Toyota, who want to keep all the combustion engine tech they developed relevant.

        As for nuclear, it's usually renewables that get all the misinformation and people claiming they can never work. The grid will become unstable, there will be no electricity at night, what happens when the wind stops blowing.

        Nuclear's problem is almost entirely financial at this point. It's just too expensive. Nobody wants to invest in it because the returns take a very long time to come, and with new reactor designs they might not come at all. Despite governments heavily subsidising nuclear power, paving the way by clearing all the legal issues and objections, it's still not an attractive product. You only have to look at the nuclear power plants under construction today to see that.

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by blahabl ( 7651114 )

          Nobody likes hydrogen except for Toyota, who want to keep all the combustion engine tech they developed relevant.

          As for nuclear, it's usually renewables that get all the misinformation and people claiming they can never work. The grid will become unstable, there will be no electricity at night, what happens when the wind stops blowing.

          Nuclear's problem is almost entirely financial at this point. It's just too expensive. Nobody wants to invest in it because the returns take a very long time to come, and with new reactor designs they might not come at all. Despite governments heavily subsidising nuclear power, paving the way by clearing all the legal issues and objections, it's still not an attractive product. You only have to look at the nuclear power plants under construction today to see that.

          Renewables can never work. The grid will become unstable, there will be no electricity at night, what happens when the wind stops blowing. Any reasonable person can see we need an "all of them" approach, nukes, renewables, hydrogen, biofuels, everything, instead of committing 100% to just blind sun worship. And hoping some magical fairy dust technological breakthrough to solve the abovementioned problems is "juuust around the corner, will be there right along with cold fusion".

          • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

            by algaeman ( 600564 )
            Maybe we should just burn strawmen forever.
            • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

              How much energy would that generate? Could we use carbon capture & storage with it? Is there an energy-optimum size for the strawmen to be, you know, like Wicker Man sized or just human sized?
          • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

            by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            Thing is we already have proof that renewables do work. We have decades of accurate historic data for wind and sunshine. We have large deployments of those technologies already. Some grids are already reaching the point where they can run entirely on renewable energy for short periods.

            If you want nuclear to be in the mix then it needs to get a lot cheaper, and a lot faster to build. EDF currently quotes 20 years for a new plant in Europe. That's *after* all the legal issues have been sorted out, land select

            • Re:Every 2 decades! (Score:4, Interesting)

              by blahabl ( 7651114 ) on Friday July 01, 2022 @09:11AM (#62665490)

              Thing is we already have proof that renewables do work. We have decades of accurate historic data for wind and sunshine. We have large deployments of those technologies already.

              Are you calling Hornsdale a "large deployment that proves the whole world in ready to switch over"? Seriously? A battery that cost "only" about 100M$, can power a small town of a few thousand through the night, and you better hope it's not cloudy in the morning because otherwise you're screwed? Or are we talking about "loudly virtue signal with PV when sun is shining, and quietly burn natgas during night and hope noone notices" kind of proof?

              Some grids are already reaching the point where they can run entirely on renewable energy for short periods.

              Noone doubts renewables can produce big peaks of energy, it's their ability to sustain production when conditions are unfavorable that's under doubt, so this proves NOTHING.

              If you want nuclear to be in the mix then it needs to get a lot cheaper, and a lot faster to build. EDF currently quotes 20 years for a new plant in Europe. That's *after* all the legal issues have been sorted out, land selected and proven suitable with geological surveys etc.

              Anyone looking to invest in nuclear today is facing the prospect of waiting 20 years for any return, by which time the energy market will have changed dramatically. Do you have any solutions to these problems which don't involve massive subsidies and relying on fossil fuels until nuclear is ready?

              It is possible to build them *much* faster, in the West, and without skimping on security, like the French did [wikipedia.org]. It only takes political will. And we'd better start now.

              Because I guarantee to you, that in 20 years, we will be burning less coal, way more natgas, greens will be all excited about new records like "renewables produced 2000% of world's energy needs for on hour last Monday" (too bad it all happened in Southwestern Africa while rest of the world had to burn natgas), and will still whine how nuclear takes 20 years to build.

              • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                You don't need giant batteries. The one they installed at Hornsdale is for stabilizing the grid, not providing cover.

                Some small batteries will make sense, just to smooth the output of some renewables a little. You don't need massive ones to keep the grid up, you just need good interconnects and some demand management.

                You mention the French. The Messmer Plan was a disaster. No consultation with the scientific community, not even a vote in parliament. By 1988 the French nuclear plants had a capacity factor of

                • You don't need giant batteries. The one they installed at Hornsdale is for stabilizing the grid, not providing cover.

                  Some small batteries will make sense, just to smooth the output of some renewables a little. You don't need massive ones to keep the grid up, you just need good interconnects and some demand management.

                  So, your argument is that we don't need giant batteries containing $WHATEVER MWh because we can install same $WHATEVER MWh capacity in small batteries and thus... gain what exactly? Loose the economics of scale aspect? With each small battery having to have its own inverter, controller, fire protections and so on? Have to significantly invest in smart grid upgrades instead of plopping the battery at power source and being able to keep the rest of the grid mostly as it was? That'll help us...how exactly?

                  You mention the French. The Messmer Plan was a disaster. No consultation with the scientific community, not even a vote in parliament. By 1988 the French nuclear plants had a capacity factor of 60%, comparable to existing off-shore wind, and were losing money fast. EDF is basically nationalized now, i.e. the French taxpayer is losing money on their failed nuclear ambitions.

                  They didn't even build the plants that fast either. They started on three of the plants in 1973, and none of them came online until the early 80s.

                  LOL,

              • That Hornsdale battery paid for itself in 2.5 years. And its charged with turbines as well as solar but its also mainly used for grid stabilisation for when the fossil plants break down and go offline. It holds enough power for 8,000 homes for 24 hours, or more than 30,000 houses for an hour during a blackout (quote from this article) [startupdaily.net]. There are plenty of other battery solutions under test/development.
                This is a long term transition so once things like a few million EVs all get V2G/V2H capability you then
                • That Hornsdale battery paid for itself in 2.5 years.

                  Easily debunkable BS. I mean, bloody hell, use your brain. An investment with pretty much no risk, secure against inflation, and a ROI of TWO POINT FIVE EFFING YEARS? LOL?! That's not only out there, that's in-another-galaxy-heck-universe out there. 10 years would be awesome but realistic in current economic climate. All those greedy capitalists would be trampling over each other in a rush to build Hornsdales in their backyards with numbers that good. Yet somehow it doesn't seem to be happening. You've been

                  • News flash grids around the world are busy installing batteries for grid stabilization. What Hornsdale demonstrated is that batteries are in fact by a country mile the best at grid stabilization, so good that all other methods are total junk in comparison. Giving out and sucking up that peak power is extremely profitable. Even if they where not profitable they are so good at grid stabilization you want them anyway.

              • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

                It is possible to build them *much* faster, in the West, and without skimping on security, like the French did [wikipedia.org]. It only takes political will.

                The UK has been bending over backwards for 20 years on this, with the result of one single reactor being built (not complete) and one in planning.

              • Do you think that entire continents are covered in clouds at once, with the wind not blowing at all?

                Your arguments are fucking nonsense. 1960s era technology of high-voltage DC interties solve everything you are crying about.

          • A huge deal of Europe is already far above 50% wind + solar.

            Perhaps you should get out of under your rock?

          • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

            Renewables can never work. The grid will become unstable, there will be no electricity at night

            There are now places where most of the electricity comes from renewables, yet these things don't happen.

            • Renewables can never work. The grid will become unstable, there will be no electricity at night

              There are now places where most of the electricity comes from renewables, yet these things don't happen.

              Yes, because when those things would happen, those places import energy from places where it doesn't.

              • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

                Renewables can never work. The grid will become unstable, there will be no electricity at night

                There are now places where most of the electricity comes from renewables, yet these things don't happen.

                Yes, because when those things would happen, those places import energy from places where it doesn't.

                You said can never work, but this is obviously not the case. Yes, there is the potential that under specific sets of circumstances there could be issues depending on how the mix of sources of energy used, but that's not the claim you made. There are also a number of ways of setting up a system of generation that will have different qualities, so it's hard to make blanket statements.

          • Now only if we could create electricity from stupidity and false arguments such as yours, we'd have a source of limitless energy.

            You've heard of energy storage, right? Batteries, pumped reservoirs + hydro turbines, flywheels, molten salt, etc.

            Even the nuclear lobbying agency admits that solar and wind are the cheapest new generation you can build [oecd-nea.org], only getting beat on cost per MWh by extending the lifetime of already-built nuclear, and that's only 43% cheaper than building new utility-scale solar. And you

        • Nobody likes hydrogen except for Toyota, who want to keep all the combustion engine tech they developed relevant.

          And Honda and GM, who formed a joint partnership to make practical (profitable) automotive fuel cells. And Cummins, which is now making fucking hydrogen ICEs as if they made any goddamned sense. But then, Cummins also makes equipment for the fracking industry, so they are solidly in the "pave the earth" camp.

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            I think the Honda and GM fuel cells are for niche markets. They both have electric vehicles and are investing in battery tech. We already have electric trucks and construction vehicles from other manufacturers too, so there isn't that much left that would really benefit from fuel cells.

            Maybe they think they could be used in the HondaJet?

            • I think the Honda and GM fuel cells are for niche markets.

              I think GM plans to use them for military purposes at this point, but more importantly, I think they are both hedging bets. No matter what the future of transportation is electric, but if big oil gets their way they will still be included. They will simply shift to being big hydrogen. If they get the right politicians into power it may well happen, whether it makes sense or not.

              • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                I'm not sure how big oil can become big hydrogen, because unlike oil which requires access to certain regions where it is abundant, hydrogen can be produced almost anywhere.

        • by jwhyche ( 6192 )
          Please feel free to ignore AmiMoJo's comments on nuclear power. The only reason he posts in these threads is to spread FUD. If he says something is true, it is safe to assume the opposite.
          • Best thing you could do is point out the actual misinformation and replace it with a correction that can be validated, calling it FUD without a correction is FUD in itself
          • One of the key points of propaganda, is to Repeat the Lie Until People Think it is the Truth

            Goebbels would applaud AmiMojos efforts

            • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

              One of the key points of propaganda, is to Repeat the Lie Until People Think it is the Truth

              That's the problem I have with MacMann - inaccurate information repeatedly posted. Sometimes I end up being no better than others here complaining about the inaccuracy without posting rebuttals, but that's because I don't keep a set of copy-paste references to hand. Where the information is a different interpretation, that's fine. When inaccurate information trying to favour a particular technology keeps being posted, it can damage that cause.

              Are renewables perfect? No, there is a potential issue with inter

              • I mostly agree with you, but groups like GreenPeace, the Green Party, etc... take an absolutist approach in opposing nuclear power, which ignores the time frames needed to produce an adequate supply of renewable power when compared to global warming rates of increase

                I think a BIG problem for these groups, and their followers, is the cognitive dissonance of realizing that they actually have made global warming worse by forcing a greater reliance on coal power generation. This is demonstrated by President Car

                • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

                  I mostly agree with you, but groups like GreenPeace, the Green Party, etc... take an absolutist approach in opposing nuclear power, which ignores the time frames needed to produce an adequate supply of renewable power when compared to global warming rates of increase

                  The issue, in terms of time to production, is more nuclear, which requires much more specialised engineering and materials than renewables. Renewables are likely to be a better answer for short-term action on global warming because of this. The UK experience, even with government support for nuclear, is that renewables are being built out several times faster than nuclear in terms of generating capacity, and more cheaply. However, I think nuclear has a role as a back-stop. It's also good to not be absolutis

                  • FYI, gas is not comparable with renewables because it also releases CO2

                    In the US, Carters decision to use Coal as primary source of electrical generation certainly caused increase in coal use from 1979 on

                    While it does take a decade to build a nuclear power plant (most delays are due to lawsuits), it would require a national initiative to hold time time frames due to harassment lawsuits

                    It is also important to consider the ability (or inability) to ramp up wind turbine production to match build time for nucle

                    • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

                      FYI, gas is not comparable with renewables because it also releases CO2

                      Indeed, and I made no such comparison. You said coal use increased in Germany. It did not.

                      In the US, Carters decision to use Coal as primary source of electrical generation certainly caused increase in coal use from 1979 on

                      I was responding to your point about Germany, not the USA.

                      (most delays are due to lawsuits)

                      Not the case in the UK.

          • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )
            I support the use of some nuclear power. AmiMoJo's information is generally accurate, not FUD. I think there might be an overemphasis on some risks, but it's not actually factually incorrect.
        • Nobody likes hydrogen except for Toyota, who want to keep all the combustion engine tech they developed relevant.

          Toyota's current hydrogen powered vehicle, the Mirai, uses a fuel cell, not a combustion engine. Nobody is building hydrogen ICEs. https://www.toyota.com/mirai/ [toyota.com]

      • IMO given how much California detests nuclear energy, Arizona should stop sending electrons from Palo Verde their way. It's tainted energy, after all.

    • The situation is dire because we're so unable to take actions to fix it early enough to stop it from becoming a major catastrophe. Our inability and failure to do so doesn't mean the problem doesn't exist -- rather, it's what's causing the problem. And just because it hasn't reached the major catastrophe stage yet doesn't mean the people pointing out the problem are insidious liars.

      Your argument might make sense if the people pointing out the problem were the same people calling the shots on what we do abou

    • The situation really is dire. And we're starting to already see actual results of climate change now. See for example https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/ [www.ipcc.ch]. It is true that there have been a lot of activists who have done things which are genuinely unhelpful or counterproductive. This hasn't just been surrounding nuclear power, but in other contexts also, like blocking new power lines in Maine that would have made it possible to transmit hydroelectric power from Quebec into the Northeast of t

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        The biggest problem for most people is that making changes that will really have an impact is expensive. They will pay for themselves eventually, but the up-front capital costs make them unattractive.

        Take insulation as an example. It will reduce heating and cooling needs dramatically if retrofitted. Governments really need to help people with that, say through a loan scheme that is paid back at a rate that is half the savings they make on energy costs.

        • They will pay for themselves eventually...

          Are you sure? No? Neither are many investors.
          AFAIK: without big government spending as a backstop nobody is ready to start building a new nuclear power plant..
          You read many articles about small modular designs but most of the time there is a focus on safety but rarely is there a clear picture on the net price per kWh and how it stacks up against renewables.

          • They are always claiming SMRs will be cleaner, cheaper, and safer. But nobody has ever demonstrated a SMR design which accomplishes any of these goals. Because they are small it should be easy to build just one, but literally no one has ever managed to build one which is viable.

            It would be a lot easier to take SMRs seriously if anyone had ever built one worth building more of.

        • funny thing, you start most of your post with "The biggest problem..."

          FYI, they can't ALL be the biggest problem, surely this is a clear sign you are lying

        • Take insulation as an example. It will reduce heating and cooling needs dramatically if retrofitted. Governments really need to help people with that, say through a loan scheme that is paid back at a rate that is half the savings they make on energy costs.

          If renewables are so cheap and easy, why should I care about how much I use?

          They say it is an emergency, but an emergency that we can afford to be picky about our solutions does not seem terribly urgent to me, so I'm just going to ignore it. Solar and wind will save us, problem solved. I've moved on to other things.

    • In fact, some countries have decided to shut down running nuclear plants.
  • but fusion power is just a decade away.

    eye roll...

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com] It's basically getting more and more economically unviable.
  • Duh! (Score:5, Interesting)

    by atomicalgebra ( 4566883 ) on Friday July 01, 2022 @07:48AM (#62665300)

    We have been saying this for decades. We would have prevented climate change if we pursued nuclear energy. It is still the only viable option we have. It is also the best tool we have to reduce poverty.

    Fuck antinuclear scumbags. Fuck'em to death!

    • Greenpeace was a Soviet-funded psyop to disrupt the American economy.

      How did they do?

      • They did really well. Especially in Europe. Germany energy is entirely reliant on russia. Russian propaganda efforts, along with the fossil fuel industry and anti-humanists eugenicists, derailed the nuclear industry in the US
    • We have been saying this for decades.

      And you have been lying for decades.

      We would have prevented climate change if we pursued nuclear energy.

      Not only is this false because EVs weren't until recently practical so you would still have needed transportation fuels, but it's also false because nuclear lifecycle carbon emissions are much higher than the industry likes to imply.

      It is still the only viable option we have.

      That is a stupid lie. Nuclear is the least viable option for multiple reasons which have already been argued about ad nauseam here.

      Fuck antinuclear scumbags. Fuck'em to death!

      Come get some, you cowardly fuck.

      • And you have been lying for decades.

        More projection from an antinuclear scumbag

        Not only is this false because EVs weren't until recently practical so you would still have needed transportation fuels,

        Ammonium and hydrogen can be produced easily from nuclear energy.

        but it's also false because nuclear lifecycle carbon emissions are much higher than the industry likes to imply.

        According to the IPCC life cycle emissions for nuclear is at 12 g CO2 per kWh. Wind is at 11-12, solar is at 41, natural gas is at 490, and coal is at 820

        That is a stupid lie. Nuclear is the least viable option for multiple reasons which have already been argued about ad nauseam here.

        Every pathway in the 2021 IPCC code red report had new nuclear energy being required.

        Come get some, you cowardly fuck.

        I'd kick your ass ten times out of ten. Fuck you scumbag.

    • No! Don't fuck them! That's how you make more of them! We have too many as it is!

  • Only an idiot, right now, would argue that nuclear is one of the key players in future energy solutions - if not the biggest.

    The problem is that in many countries, the regulations are so darn tight, it takes years to get reactors onto the grid.

    The "time to market" is stupid - insane.

    For example, in the UK, The "Hinkley Point C" power station is one of eight announced in ... wait for it ... 2010.
    It took 2 years for the license to be granted and another 4 years to be fully approved.

    It is currently due to be o

  • Investment has stalled *because* the latest new projects have run far over budget. Meanwhile renewable projects are cheaper and have better time to value and tend to not run over budget. Hmm... I wonder why the sun and wind are so popular!

Two can Live as Cheaply as One for Half as Long. -- Howard Kandel

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