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Could the Ukraine Crisis Push Europe Toward Energy Self-Sufficiency With Renewable Energy? (slate.com) 203

Countries imposing sanctions on Russia also depend on it for oil and natural gas, notes Slate's web editor.

"Noah J. Gordon, an adviser at the Berlin-based, climate-focused think tank Adelphi, thinks there's an opening here for Europe to take a different route — to pursue more energy self-sufficiency not by building out gas reserves, but by expanding its renewable energy sources at a faster pace." Noah Gordon: [O]nly about 15 percent of Germany's huge gas consumption — almost all imports — is used in power production, and only 15 percent of German power is generated from gas. Most of that gas from Russia or elsewhere is used for heating buildings and in industry.... I think this crisis has really changed the terms of debate. There's a lot of talk today on massive European mobilization to build heat pumps so that Germany and the rest of Europe could heat their buildings with electricity instead of gas, and to renovate buildings for energy efficiency. This is a thing called the EU Renovation Wave, which is a buzzword that can now really get going....

[T]he answer is to reduce fossil fuel use as much as we can. There might not be a wartime mobilization to build weapons for this conflict, but there could be to build heat pumps and to renovate buildings. That's really the way out of this, and to get the clean energy to back it up.... Building a heat pump today isn't going to cut emissions on its own, and you need clean electricity to power the heat pumps, or you haven't made that much progress. But at least with heat pumps and efficiency, you're not locking in future fossil fuel use....

[Y]ou could get a paradigm shift after this, like we did after 1973 and the Arab oil embargo with a greater focus on alternative energy, such as nuclear, and an energy efficiency drive back then in the EU and Japan and even the U.S. in terms of car fuel economy standards.

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Could the Ukraine Crisis Push Europe Toward Energy Self-Sufficiency With Renewable Energy?

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  • Sure, in 20 years (Score:4, Insightful)

    by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Sunday February 27, 2022 @12:38PM (#62309047)
    building that kind of infrastructure, especially in our pro-Austerity political environment where nobody thinks anything can be done and where 50-60% of the productive capacity of every economy goes straight to the top takes a long, long time. By the time it's done Putin will have rebuilt the USSR.

    We took too long to do it. And we don't have the will to do it fast ala WWII. So Putin wins, at least up to the boarders of countries with nukes. He'll stop there, but we'll let him go that far.
    • by saloomy ( 2817221 ) on Sunday February 27, 2022 @12:56PM (#62309113)
      Oil is not just energy. If you could produce the equivalent megajoules overnight with renewables, you can not make plastic, fertilizer, medical equipment, rubber, fake leather, and a whole unbelievable list of other things without oil. Also, what are you going to do? Put solar panels on the wings of an Airbus A380 and hope it still flies? No. The answer is no. You can not get away from oil. The best you can do is optimize its use by not burning it in cars and for electricity as quickly as possible.
      • you can not make plastic, fertilizer, medical equipment, rubber, fake leather, and a whole unbelievable list of other things without oil. Also, what are you going to do?

        A lot of this stuff can be done with carbon extraction from the air. It's more expensive, but would it really be drastic if fake leather became more expensive?

        Ultimately everything can be done without oil, it's just a matter of at what cost.

        • by hey! ( 33014 )

          Direct carbon extraction from the air is never going to be economical. I think some bioplastics will become more common as the century moves on, but there really are only two alternatives to virgin petroleum. (1) Recycling (which currently doesn't work economically because virgin plastic is cheaper) and (2) using less of the damned stuff in the first place.

          I'm a big fan of using less of the damned stuff. It's just ridiculous the amount of plastic a household consumes in a week, almost none of it really ne

          • Direct carbon extraction from the air is never going to be economical.

            It depends on the purpose, of course. For gasoline? Not likely to ever be economical.

            For the plastic parts on my laptop? Sure, why not?

            • by hey! ( 33014 )

              Well, because CO2 as troublesome as it is is a trace gas, amounting to 4 hundredths of a percent of the atmosphere. As an industrial process it's bound to be uneconomical. Sure, if we're doing carbon capture anyway for climate reasons then it makes sense.

              Like I said, bioplastics essentially do the same thing. You just use a lot of relatively non-valuable land.

      • by Pieroxy ( 222434 ) on Sunday February 27, 2022 @01:06PM (#62309139) Homepage

        Oil is not the issue. Natural Gas is. This is what the Russians are providing Europe with.

        Those stupid fucks (EU govts) have even started a second huge pipeline to bring even more gas from Russia to Europe. This is a twofold disaster: For the planet and for strengthening a dependency we already had with Russia.

        I guess that's what we get with small democracies: Short term self centered decisions, sometimes dumb as fuck like NordStream 2.

        • But they installed low flow toilets and windmills so we good ya?

        • Those stupid fucks (EU govts) have even started a second huge pipeline...

          Not just started. Nord Stream 2 is complete, and Gazprom has filled it with methane. They can start deliveries the day after the Germans sign off the last of the paperwork.

          Possibly worth noting that the Europeans decided many years ago that energy and energy policy was an economic matter to be handled under the EU treaties, not a security matter to be handled under NATO. That's irritated the US from the time they made that decisi

          • by jsonn ( 792303 )
            Let's not forget that the USA has been trying to sell expensive gas to Europe for quite a while.
        • Oil is not the issue. Natural Gas is. This is what the Russians are providing Europe with.

          EU imports Russian Oil and Gas. For example "Germany imported 83 million tonnes of crude oil (the country also imports additional mineral oil products). Russia was by far the largest supplier in 2020, delivering 34 percent."
          https://www.cleanenergywire.or... [cleanenergywire.org]

          • Why they're importing all that oil. A large part of it is keeping cars running. A switch to renewables will come with a switch to electrics. Everything with the exception of Long haul semi trucks. Germany can already replace its oil intake with Middle Eastern oil and US oil but they can't do that without huge spikes in cost. Ukraine is being let go to keep European economies going at a steady clip.
            • by drnb ( 2434720 )
              A switch to EV will likely require a switch back to nuclear. A bridge is needed from today to that renewables future. That is if we do not want to continue using coal, oil and nat gas as that bridge.
        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          The idea was to make Russia dependent on that income. It might have worked, we will have to see what the long term damage to Russia is.

          Using Europe's energy security for that purpose probably wasn't the best idea, but people were optimistic in the early 90s.

          • That seems more like an excuse to me than anything else. Anyone paying attention would know that Russia doesn't care about their economy collapsing. As long as their soldiers are fed and able to keep the populace from revolting it's going to be a non-issue. They're a monarchy rather than a democracy at this point with Putin effectively King and a handful of aristocrats along with the court with a lot of assassinations going on. But Putin has repeatedly shown that he can and will assassinate any of the arist
            • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              With the Rouble in freefall today I think Putin is going to have to care about the economy. There are rumours that he is firing senior military staff - he was expecting this to be over with very quickly, before Europe was able to get the really painful sanctions in place.

        • Yep, the German government is stupid...
          Or maybe they have a more nuanced view with pros and cons, risk assessments, ...
          Maybe they use nordstream to have a better negotiating position with other companies.
          Imagine if they actually wrote a document analysing the situation in depth.
          Even better, discussed all details with all different stakeholders.
          No, they are just stupid. That is the only reasonable explanation.
          Your reasoning seems to be based on boolean variables. Try int8 for starters.
      • by Sique ( 173459 ) on Sunday February 27, 2022 @01:11PM (#62309157) Homepage
        More than 90% of all oil goes into energy generation. Yes, plastics and fertilizers and stuff are important products, but if you cut oil usage to power generators and cars and heat buildings in half, your savings on oil consumption are huge. And you can still burn the used plastics, if it is not easy to recycle, in incinerators to get heat and power turbines for electricity.
      • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

        You can make all those things without petroleum if you want to. Synthetic oil isn't terribly difficult to make, and we're already very good at taking hydrocarbon feedstock and cracking or reforming it to produce what we want. It's just more expensive than pumping it out of Russia, but probably not as expensive as you think.

      • A liquid fuel, say jet fuel, and petroleum are two different things. You do not have to make the former from the latter. Internal combustion engines and jet engines can be run on biofuels. With such fuels cars and planes would have net zero carbon emissions. The problem is only our use of the sequestered away carbon, coal, oil and natural gas that we are mining/drilling.

        Unfortunately, like renewables, this will need R&D and engineering for many years to come. Perhaps setting aside large tracts of la
        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          Perhaps setting aside large tracts of land for bioreactors. Which probably makes more sense than doing so for solar panels.

          It doesn't seem that's the case. Large tracts of ocean for algae maybe, but solar panels are so much more efficient than photosynthesis that it's probably better to just use them and go with an entirely synthetic process. It helps iron out availability problems with renewables too.

          • by drnb ( 2434720 )
            Bioreactors don't have to be standing pools. You can go vertical, as long as you have sunlight.
            • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

              I didn't say anything about "standing pools." The system is limited by the amount of energy and the cost of materials. Solar panels and wind turbines are a lot more efficient, cheap, getting cheaper, and useful for things other than making fuel.

              • by drnb ( 2434720 )

                The system is limited by the amount of energy and the cost of materials.

                And solar and wind is not?

                Solar panels and wind turbines are a lot more efficient, cheap, getting cheaper, and useful for things other than making fuel.

                The point is making fuel. For some applications fuels are superior to battery.

                Also solar panels are truly terrible for industrial scale, solar thermal is far more logical.

      • To oil demand if all of Europe switched over to electricity and renewables? We could easily tell Russia to go take a hike at that point. Remember it's mostly natural gas that Russia is exporting anyway. The reason we need the oil is to balance the Middle East and OPEC so that we don't get crushed by price gouging like we did in the 70s.

        So yeah we can get away from oil. At least politically. And that's what we're talking about in the context here.
      • Oil is not just energy. If you could produce the equivalent megajoules overnight with renewables, you can not make plastic, fertilizer, medical equipment, rubber, fake leather, and a whole unbelievable list of other things without oil.

        You are right, but only on a macro-economic scale. The reality is the overwhelming consumption of oil is for energy and there are many additional sources for oil and gas coming into the EU that easily cover that small component of our oil and gas use.

        As it stands Russia supplies 40% of Europe's gas. That is among other things used to make fertiliser, but they aren't as controlling with oil. If Europe covered only a portion of energy consumption alone to say nothing of the additional uses for oil and gas the

      • Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)

        by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Sunday February 27, 2022 @06:08PM (#62309957)
        Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • Oil is not just energy. If you could produce the equivalent megajoules overnight with renewables, you can not make plastic, fertilizer, medical equipment, rubber, fake leather, and a whole unbelievable list of other things without oil.

        Petroleum is used for those things because of it's vast array of ready-made molecules to swap around like Legos... But it's not the only source of such molecules. There's any number of plant based materials, and if worse comes to worse you can synthesize them from raw elemen

    • building that kind of infrastructure, especially in our pro-Austerity political environment where nobody thinks anything can be done and where 50-60% of the productive capacity of every economy goes straight to the top takes a long, long time. By the time it's done Putin will have rebuilt the USSR. .

      That's amusing. Europe has assembled a bureaucratic nightmare of a political system where even top-down decisions that everyone can agree upon take years to roll out. You get hints of this ossified culture in the US, where a lithium mine is tanked because a bird that *might* end up on the "threatened" species list nests nearby. Or a much-needed apartment development in San Francisco gets held up because it would occasionally cast a shadow on an adjacent park.

      Of course, these are all pretenses for what is re

      • Nothing like a war to sharpen your focus.

        Since the end of WW2, or at the very least since the end of the Cold War, the West has been focused on the business of ... business.

        Least cost, efficient supply chains, etc. China and other countries with a command economy have used this to strategic advantage. Others, with a more liberal attitude got fat and lazy.

        Now, suddenly, a lot of rich, but energy poor countries have the one thing that they despite more than a harsh word ... war. This will shift their prioriti

        • > Are there any oil exporting democracies out there? Canada, except that all recent attempts to increase its export capabilities (Energy East, Trans Mountain, KeystoneXL, etc.) have been blocked by people with the false impression that pipelines are worse than rail cars full of oil, or paying billions of dollars to corrupt dictatorships.
          • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

            Canadian oil exports have grown steadily for decades. The growth rate accelerated in 2009 and has remained at that higher rate since.

            Most of that growth is due to increasing bitumen exports. That's what you get out of the famous oil sands. Bitumen is quite economical to ship by train since to get it through a pipeline you have to dilute it a lot. Nevertheless, most oil does not travel by rail; it was 3.7% in 2015, 7.5% in 2019, and 4.6% in 2020.

            Damn numbers, messing up the narrative, hey?

            https://www.cer-rec [cer-rec.gc.ca]

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          Are there any oil exporting democracies out there?

          US, Canada, Norway, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina... a bunch more smaller ones, and some larger ones that are rated as less than "flawed" on the democracy index.

    • building that kind of infrastructure, especially in our pro-Austerity political environment where nobody thinks anything can be done

      Germany doesn't really have that mentality. The average German definitely plans ahead and builds things properly. That's why their cars are built to last. And their houses.

      • You clearly have no actual experience with German cars. I had a 12 year old German car in the US. Visiting Germans viewed it as a curious relic, saying that nobody in Germany drove anything that old, mostly from winter rust damage and the TUV screwdriver jab inspection. A visit to Germany confirmed many of that car in wrecking yards, and very few on the roads.
      • by hjf ( 703092 )

        My dad's 1998 BMW 528i would like to disagree. He uses it mostly for road trips since it's too stupid to drive in the city with that boat of a car, but in the last 3 trips the car broke down.

        Gas pump twice, and alternator once.

      • building that kind of infrastructure, especially in our pro-Austerity political environment where nobody thinks anything can be done

        Germany doesn't really have that mentality. The average German definitely plans ahead and builds things properly. That's why their cars are built to last. And their houses.

        Absolutely false with respect to energy. Germany is absolutely political with respect to greenwashing. As Putin like to but up a facade of strength, Germany likes to put up a facade of green. If Germany were truly being practical and looking ahead it would have shut down the dirtiest power sources first. Coal, oil and than natural gas. Instead for political reasons it shuts down nuclear first, increasing the usage of coal, oil and natural gas. Don't worry, we have lots of photo-ops with solar panels and win

    • building that kind of infrastructure ... We took too long to do it.

      We green washed, we were political, while hyping renewable projects and shutting down nuclear we quietly increased the usage of coal, oil and nat gas. It was absolutely political theatre.

      Investing in renewables was fine, but we grossly exaggerated their usefulness with today's tech and today's designs. As you suggest we really need over a decade more of R&D and engineering to even have a realistic plan based on renewables. That means we need a bridge from today to a renewable future. Nuclear is the m

    • They'd need a continent panning grid to assure wind energy is always available. There isn't enough hydroelectric truc to act as a battery for stirred solar so they will need online spooled up coal plants or nuclear to meet loads. And the more renewable you rely on the more backup you need too. They are decades away. Then there's the heating and cooking gas. Switching that tie me truck just makes the peak load problem worse.
      So they are going to need to embrace nuclear power. But instead what is going g

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      This is a definite kick-in-the-pants moment. After decades of US griping about it, Germany just announced it's going to increase its defense spending to 100 billion euros, which will vault it from 7th rank in defense spending in the world to third. Germany will be spending *twice* what Russia does, and Germany is an industrial superpower, not a feeble, corrupt, resource-extraction based economy. This will reshape the security situation in Europe, which wasn't Putin's intention and won't at all be to his

  • Most of that gas from Russia or elsewhere is used for heating buildings and in industry

    How much in each? Industrial uses of gas are probably not replaceable by heat pumps since they are likely to involve heating to high temperatures so if most of the gas is used there heat pumps will not make much difference.

    The next issue is how well will heat pumps work in the interior of Europe where there is a continental climate with cold winters? Heat pumps are incredibly efficient for small temperature differences but by the time it gets below -10C the efficiency gets much lower and the heating pow

    • by crow ( 16139 )

      Ground source heat pumps work great. Air source heat pumps have temperature limits, but are much better than they were a few years ago. I was just reading about a company making heat pumps designed to replace gas boilers for homes with forced hot water heating systems so that they don't need to replace the whole system, just the boiler.

      The strategy now is to grab all the low-hanging fruit as quickly as possible. Doing energy audits, air sealing, and insulation improvements could significantly reduce the

      • Ground source heat pumps work great.

        I'd not thought of that. I suspect installation will be rather expensive given the drilling involved but physics-wise it makes perfect sense. Thanks!

        • by crow ( 16139 )

          Yes, it's expensive, but not nearly as expensive as it used to be. For example Dandelion Energy has been installing relatively low-cost geothermal for several years (mostly in upstate NY). I have no direct experience with them, so I'm not endorsing them, but I'm endorsing the concept.

          If Europe (or specific countries like Germany) got serious about converting from gas to electric, technologies like this would be much cheaper if they were doing them at scale. I expect they could double or better the number

    • by gnite ( 3701059 )
      My mom's got a heat pump with an underground source (9 loops going around 100ft deep each) and it works perfectly fine. That's in Poland, so winters, while not exactly extreme, can be quite harsh at times).
    • by isj ( 453011 )

      Yes, we have cold winters, but we also know how to make heat pumps work. Most of the installations have the heat source from the ground which has a relatively constant temperature of 7-9C independent of the air temperature. For those that use the outside air as a heat source the heat pumps are sized accordingly, and they work efficiently (COP>1) down to -20C.

      • The issue with air-source heat pumps and cold weather is not so much the absolute efficiency but that the heating power drops off because of the drop in efficiency meaning that you need a massive pump to keep your house warm on cold days.

        Ground source heat pumps make a huge amount of sense - I had not realized they were available. I suspect installation is very expensive but they will clearly work well even in cold weather. I actually live in Canada where we get a week or two below -30C each winter (and
    • by amorsen ( 7485 )

      Greenland does well with air source heat pumps.

    • by amorsen ( 7485 )

      In cities, you can install district heating and use water source heat pumps. Most cities have a harbour.

      Also, you can store heat from summer to winter in covered dams. This is getting popular in Denmark.

    • Well, the solar panels under 18 inches of snow could ... Batteries at -20 could .. Heat pumps could -- even if the electricity cost $2000 KWH If the house was really well insulated and people got used to wearing snowsuits inside .. Please send them on a fact finding mission over there. Reducing the population, means real fossil fuel reductions. Living on top of each other in the subway, underground, does cause efficiency, just in case the power company stops - because they have not paid for gas in the last
  • I think we need to get away from the one-trick pony approach to move things along faster. There are other ways to use the sun and other approaches to limiting energy usage.

    For example, coatings have been developed that act almost like diodes for heat movement. Heat moves through from one side and is reflected away from the other. The overall effect is so great that the non-reflective side is cooled below ambient as heat is emitted but refused a path back in. Incorporating this into building structures in so

    • Hello alien, please let us know which universe you are from.

      In this universe we obey the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Do you have one in the universe you are coming from? Do you also have magnetic monopoles? Just asking for a friend.

      • No laws violated here. These new coatings [purdue.edu] both reflect a very high percentage of the sunlight hitting them (98%+) across a broad spectrum and radiate the thermal energy that they have. The heat that leaves is blocked from coming back. Other researchers have worked to combine them in metamaterials such that they absorb thermal energy more readily from the side being cooled. The paint in the article above is one of these new paints being developed by competing researchers around the world that managed 10kW of
    • Sounds interesting for places that are always too hot or always too cold. But for most of the world, active flipping of building surfaces are hard.
  • by Miles_O'Toole ( 5152533 ) on Sunday February 27, 2022 @01:29PM (#62309215)

    If the US and Canada would take similar steps, it would finally allow the Free World to get the hell out of the Middle East and watch the hate mongers slaughter each other while we eat popcorn.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      Both the US and Canada are net exporters of both oil and gas.

      • Both the US and Canada are net exporters of both oil and gas.

        I believe the US was a net petroleum importer in 2021 and is predicted to do so again in 2022. Then you also need to consider which types of petroleum we're importing vs which types we're exporting.

    • If the US and Canada would take similar steps, it would finally allow the Free World to get the hell out of the Middle East and watch the hate mongers slaughter each other while we eat popcorn.

      Setting aside the fact that there's more to the free world than the US and Canada... The Middle East isn't a majority provider of oil to the US and hasn't been as long as I've been watching. (Since around the turn of the century.) The vast majority of our oil comes from Canada, Mexico, and various South American so

  • by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Sunday February 27, 2022 @02:29PM (#62309401) Journal
    The world as a whole is becoming less dependent on oil and gas. The writing is on the wall. Random strangers on the internet will disagree. But the experts and advisors who plot mega long term trends are all coming to the same conclusion. Solar and wind are already cheaper than gas for making electricity. The only issue is intermittency. So all they need is a week or two worth of gas stored in caves or tanks and they are good. Other forms of storage from well proven ones like pumped hydro to battery tech to compressed air energy storage are coming of age. Already GWh storage systems at utility scale are being installed. All oil exporting countries are going to lose their leverage, their importance and their revenue. Russia too, 66% of its revenue comes from oil exports.

    They always used to believe even if grid is gone, they transportation sector is under the thumb of gasoline and diesel. But even that is being seriously assaulted. The car makers have caved in and all of them are switching to EV, shelving R&D on ICE, closing ICE factories and line ups.

    Russia is trying to secure the bread basket of Europe. Ukraine accounts for more than 50% of wheat consumed in Europe and its wheat is highly prized in Arab lands.

    The war will not be the reason Europe becomes free of dependency on fossil fuels. Europe becoming free of fossil fuel dependency is the reason for this war.

  • It's not a crazy idea. Heat pumps are way more efficient than gas or electric heat. Current models even work when it's quite cold, below 0 degrees F. They're plausible anywhere in Europe, except perhaps Scandinavia. I'm pretty interested in replacing my old AC unit with a heat pump but that's only because my current AC is quite old.

    Thing is, this sort of thing takes time. The city I live in, San Jose, is floating a proposal to ban gas appliances and heat in 2030. I think that's too fast. I don't know you ca

    • I doubt it matters much. Usage should be low. When I lived there I did not have an AC, and rarely used the heat. And that was on the east side. Very temperate climate. I was stunned when friends would install a central AC. My question was always why.
      • I doubt it matters much. Usage should be low. When I lived there I did not have an AC, and rarely used the heat. And that was on the east side. Very temperate climate. I was stunned when friends would install a central AC. My question was always why.

        East side of San Jose? We routinely need heat in the winter. When it's over 90, it gets uncomfortably hot in my house so AC is nice. Lots of times we can just depend on the whole house fan.

        • Yes, east foot hills. Very near Alum Rock rd near the park. yes it got to 90, but quickly falls at night. I used heat too, but you can tell it never got cold, my water pipes coming into the house were exposed. A big no-no anywhere that gets cold. My point is usage is low, so benefit is low. They'd be far better off giving incentives for insulation to reduce energy usage. Now if we were talking about Tahoe area, different story.
  • It's happening already. One positive aspect of this crazy Gangsta- Czar going apeshit.

  • by kenh ( 9056 ) on Sunday February 27, 2022 @08:12PM (#62310223) Homepage Journal

    There's a lot of talk today on massive European mobilization to build heat pumps so that Germany and the rest of Europe could heat their buildings with electricity instead of gas, and to renovate buildings for energy efficiency. This is a thing called the EU Renovation Wave, which is a buzzword that can now really get going....

    You're talking about a solution that will take decades to address a problem that could manifest itself next week...

  • ... if Europe really wants to be self sufficient in energy.

  • The answer is no. (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Budenny ( 888916 ) on Monday February 28, 2022 @03:46AM (#62310847)

    The answer is, no it cannot push the EU to renewables, because installing renewables is not a way of reducing need for conventional generation. Nor will the EU move to renewables because they are cheaper than conventional, because they are not. And finally, it will not do it because however much people want to, you cannot run a modern economy on wind.

    To see this you just have to look at the UK wind power numbers and the implications of the UK plans for Net Zero. The wind power generation numbers are available here:

    https://gridwatch.co.uk/WIND [gridwatch.co.uk]

    From this you can see that there is no way to run a grid on wind. What you can do is run it on gas and supplement your gas with wind. Its is therefore false to say that wind has become or will become cheaper than gas, they are not alternatives, you cannot replace gas with wind.

    You will be replacing gas with wind plus gas, which is not cheaper than gas alone, its a lot more expensive. In addition, the latest Net Zero information shows that its necessary to rebuild huge amounts of transmission infrastructure to move the power to where it is needed. From offshore north of Scotland to the UK Midlands. The idea that this is cheaper than conventional is idiotic.

    In addition, there are social costs to going to intermittent generation while increasing demand. The latest UK Net Zero plans show using smart meters to turn off vehicle charging, draw down vehicle batteries, and turn off heat pumps during peak demand hours.

    Second, it is also wrong to suggest you can reduce demand for oil by moving cars to EVs. It depends entirely what you are using to generate the power. As the above charts show, and as the UK Net Zero plans show, there is no way to install enough wind in any reasonable time period to be able to generate current demand, let alone the increased demand from EVs.

    The plan is to go from about 24GW faceplate to about 70GW by 2030. If you assume 4GW per turbine, that is going to be 10,000+ offshore turbines by 2030. And by the later years, replacing the ones already installed and wearing out. Its not possible. And even if you could do it, all you have really done is increase the intermittency problem. And for every unit of wind you install, you have to install an identical amount of gas fired generation to back up the dips. That alone is problematic.

    And finally they are proposing to install 600,000 intermittently supplied heat pumps a year. Which is a completely insane ambition. There are just not enough tradesmen to do it. And the task is not simply bolt a heat pump onto existing heating systems. Its install new and bigger rads, and hew piping to them, because heat pumps work at much lower temps than gas boilers.

    The whole idea is harebrained.

  • It seems shortsighted to rely on other countries for the stuff that keeps your country running, particularly when the countries that provide those resources have vastly different regimes to yours. Oil from the middle East and gas from Russia - not quite the liberal paradises that Europe would like to work with!
    • It seems shortsighted to rely on other countries for the stuff that keeps your country running, particularly when the countries that provide those resources have vastly different regimes to yours. Oil from the middle East and gas from Russia - not quite the liberal paradises that Europe would like to work with!

      Where have we heard that before?

      “Germany will have almost 70 percent of their country controlled by Russia with natural gas. You tell me, is that appropriate?,” he asked, while Stoltenberg listened.

      At one point, the former Norwegian prime minister pointed out that the NATO allies in Europe disagreed among themselves on ways to reduce the continent’s reliance on Russian gas.

      “Germany is totally controlled by Russia, cause they are getting 60 to 70 percent of their energy from Russia an

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