Laptop Shortage is Easing as Pandemic Demand Wanes (bloomberg.com) 17
Since early in the pandemic, soaring demand for consumer electronics led to persistent chip shortages. Some recent signs suggest the situation may finally be starting to change. From a report: An executive at the memory chip maker Micron Technology said last week at an investor conference that demand for consumer PCs is slowing and that some of its customers have more chips lying around. A day later, Morgan Stanley downgraded several chip stocks in a note titled "Winter is Coming." The analysts said PC inventory is rising and that the smartphone market is likely to experience similar deterioration. An old investor maxim says technology companies tend to handily outperform during cyclical upswings while the reverse is true on the downside. Well, the industry is beginning to fall short of estimates.
Global PC shipments grew by 13% in the second quarter, according to research firm IDC. That was below Evercore ISI's expectation of 18% and a big deceleration from the 55% rise in the first quarter. Furthermore, wireless router manufacturer Netgear Inc. gave disappointing guidance last month, adding that sales were worse-than-expected in its consumer networking category. Still, it's probably too soon to declare an end. Outbreaks of the delta variant and the long-term efficacy of vaccines make predictions even harder than usual. Some chip analysts have said reports of weakness are primarily seasonal and that sales will pick up through next year. Shortages also vary by part. So even if you can walk into a store and find plenty of laptops, you'll still struggle to get a new car or a video game console.
In some cases, chip delivery times are longer than 20 weeks, the longest wait in at least four years. But as I wrote last month, the pandemic rush to computers and printers won't repeat itself. Once a worker or student buys a laptop, they don't need another one for several years. Retailers are offering extensive discounts on nearly every PC-related category, with the exception of graphics cards. (It's still a good time to be in the games business.) The waning demand for PCs will likely last for at least several more quarters.
Global PC shipments grew by 13% in the second quarter, according to research firm IDC. That was below Evercore ISI's expectation of 18% and a big deceleration from the 55% rise in the first quarter. Furthermore, wireless router manufacturer Netgear Inc. gave disappointing guidance last month, adding that sales were worse-than-expected in its consumer networking category. Still, it's probably too soon to declare an end. Outbreaks of the delta variant and the long-term efficacy of vaccines make predictions even harder than usual. Some chip analysts have said reports of weakness are primarily seasonal and that sales will pick up through next year. Shortages also vary by part. So even if you can walk into a store and find plenty of laptops, you'll still struggle to get a new car or a video game console.
In some cases, chip delivery times are longer than 20 weeks, the longest wait in at least four years. But as I wrote last month, the pandemic rush to computers and printers won't repeat itself. Once a worker or student buys a laptop, they don't need another one for several years. Retailers are offering extensive discounts on nearly every PC-related category, with the exception of graphics cards. (It's still a good time to be in the games business.) The waning demand for PCs will likely last for at least several more quarters.
Great I need a new laptop (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3)
Re: (Score:3)
Admittedly, I have upgraded the RAM, CPU, and installed an SSD.
I also installed Linux Mint. It is literally my daily driver laptop.
Of course (Score:2)
The surge in demand due to people staying home was never going to last, even if the pandemic continues most of those people who needed to buy a new machine have already bought one so it's back to the replacement cycles as stuff dies or becomes too old.
I would expect demand for smartphones to increase as things open up however...
I held off on buying a new smartphone and migrated to a much cheaper service plan since being at home constantly meant i hardly ever used the mobile and used virtually no mobile data
Re: (Score:2)
PC and Laptop purchases often fall on a 4 or 8 year cycle normally
A bunch of people got new PC's in 2000 to fix the Y2k issue, then 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 then 2020. These are the years analysis are touting the PC is not dead! then by 2022 or 2023 they will be like the PC is dying.
The PC isn't as cool as it use to be, it is now just kinda an expensive appliance that people use, however bigger screen and keyboard is a big seller if you are stuck at home.
Nobody wants a laptop with Windows 11 (Score:4, Interesting)
Re: (Score:2)
People have already got the laptops they like and in a few months laptops will come with Windows 11 complete with forced TPM and online accounts unless you pay the pro ransom. Better to stick the laptop you already have until Microsoft admits their mistake and releases Windows 12 with the problems fixed in a few years time.
I have a very hard time believing Microsoft will admit their mistakes and fix the problems in Windows 12. They'll just cycle out a new set of problems.
Re: (Score:1, Interesting)
Windows 12 will feature WaaS (Windows as a Service) aka Windows 365, and you'll pay the toll monthly (or yearly for a meager 16% discount). Switching to Linux? You can, for now. But once MS embraces the switch to ARM, then Secure Boot must be enabled & locked [arstechnica.com] if Windows is to be installed on it. ARM Macs currently have an unlocked bootloader, but that could change anytime.
Back to Windows 365. By the time this is enforced, though, they'll be so annoyed dealing with Bitcoin miners, malware, and data-
Re: (Score:2)
I doubt MS will change. Did they ever change in the past? :P
So they can build cars again? (Score:2)
Or do we still have to wait?
Re:So they can build cars again? (Score:5, Interesting)
You'll have to wait. Electronic components are slammed still. Some orders for components have been moved back a year or a year and a half which is unheard of. Part of the problem I suspect is people overbuying, which creates more shortage.
Re: (Score:2)
At least according to one of our supply chain guys, the 'people' specifically overbuying are not consumers, but some 'on the fence' Chinese companies. Chinese companies being added to US export restrictions under Trump triggered some vendor side hoarding which was pressure, but tolerable. Then when Biden doubled down by adding more companies rather than easing off, that triggered panic hoarding across a lot of Chinese electronic companies as these companies realized that Biden was not going to reverse cour
Next few quarters... (Score:2)
We'll see a return to the "tablets are outselling PCs" narrative as remote work fades away and people shift back from doing a semblance of work to fucking around on social media.
Production requires a physical keyboard and screen pointer, touchscreen-only mobile devices are designed for consumption.
Re: (Score:2)
Procreate says hi.
Pent up demand? (Score:2)
I think the mass laptop purchasing was more about fear of shortages in the business sector than what consumers did? Sure, when COVID started - you had a surge of sales of PC equipment, but mostly because of folks suddenly spending a lot more time at home and viewing it as a more important communications tool. (Webcams went through a massive shortage too. You could suddenly get $40-50 easily for a used one that nobody would give you $5 for before that.) But the real issue was the short supply leading to b
Not there yet (Score:2)
ThinkPenguin and System76 still have only one model each in stock.