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Robotics Businesses

Automation: The Exaggerated Threat of Robots (flassbeck-economics.com) 134

It will take quite a lot of time before robots become cheaper than workers in emerging markets such as Africa, argues Nico Beckert of Flassbeck Economics, a consortium of researchers who aim to provide economics insights with a more realistic basis. From the post: All industrialized countries used low-cost labour to build industries and manufacture mass-produced goods. Today, labour is relatively inexpensive in Africa, and a similar industrialization process might take off accordingly. Some worry that industrial robots will block this development path. The reason is that robots are most useful when doing routine tasks -- precisely the kind of work that is typical of labour-intensive mass production. At the moment, however, robots are much too expensive to replace thousands upon thousands of workers in labour-intensive industries, most of which are in the very early stages of the industrialization process. Robots are currently best used in technologically more demanding fields like the automobile or electronics industry.

Even a rapid drop in robot prices would not lead to the replacement of workers by robots in the short term in Africa where countries lag far behind in terms of fast internet and other information and communications technologies. They also lack well-trained IT experts. Other problems include an unreliable power supply, high energy costs and high financing costs for new technologies. For these reasons, it would be difficult and expensive to integrate robots and other digital technologies into African production lines.

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Automation: The Exaggerated Threat of Robots

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  • by LynnwoodRooster ( 966895 ) on Sunday September 16, 2018 @10:03AM (#57323210) Journal
    Msmash is, in fact, an AI/robot, trying to throw us off the trail of their takeover of the world! "Pay no attention to the robots and AIs gaining on you, it's all, uh, well, - not real?" Msmash - you've been outed!
  • by Brett Buck ( 811747 ) on Sunday September 16, 2018 @10:10AM (#57323248)

    People think I am crazy for believing this, but I believe that robots are stealing my luggage.

    • And I believe that we should allow all foreigners into the country as long as they speak our native language, Apache.

      (Good bet very few get either your post or mine) :D

      • by Kjella ( 173770 )

        Good bet very few get either your post or mine

        Why? There's an XKCD [xkcd.com] for nearly every story posted here. Also it's Cherokee ;)

        • No. It is indeed Apache [youtube.com]

          Steve Martin's monologue predates XKCD by decades.

          Next, you are going to be telling us that the chariot race in Ben Hur was a ripoff of the pod race in Phantom Menace.

      • Could you be more specific on the dialect?
        I would hate to waste my time for learning the wrong one :)

  • So what? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Sunday September 16, 2018 @10:16AM (#57323266) Homepage Journal

    It will take quite a lot of time before robots become cheaper than workers in emerging markets such as Africa,

    So what? What does that straw man have to do with anything?

    Today, labour is relatively inexpensive in Africa, and a similar industrialization process might take off accordingly. Some worry that industrial robots will block this development path.

    I haven't seen one person worry about that. Not a single one. What people are worried about isn't whether Africans will get a job, they're worried whether outsourcing and automation will take jobs that people have now. Africans probably know that there is a good chance that most of the remaining human-based manufacturing jobs will end up in Africa, which is a situation all major corporations in a position to care are working towards.

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      Africa will never be big as a labor source. African nations have weak rule of law, weak courts that can resolve business disputes, weak safety for the businessmen traveling about, poor infrastructure, anti-business governments that see foreign businesses as something to squeeze money from, the list goes on. Until this changes, African labor won't happen. Even the Chinese have to bring their own workers along and insist on immunity from local laws so they can build their own trains.
      • It is true that most businesses prefer to outsource such security and contract enforcement to cooperative governments - but organized crime is only moderately more expensive, especially in places where the rule of law is weak.

        Less extra-legally, as I recall China (among others) is increasingly exploring city-building treaties that effectively hand them (possibly in partnership with other stable governments) legal and judicial jurisdiction of a region in return for building a city there and attracting invest

      • by epine ( 68316 )

        African nations have weak rule of law, [many other universally shared African flaws] ...

        The one basket-case-fits-all model of African development is exposing your ankles, restricting your natural leg movement, and giving you a hideous muffin top.

        Get a bigger pair of pants. (Updating your intellectual wardrobe every twenty years or so would make for a good start.)

        • So what's changed? Where's this flowering of laws and civilized behavior? Where can you start a business and not be hounded into bankruptcy by the locals?
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Africans probably know that there is a good chance that most of the remaining human-based manufacturing jobs will end up in Africa, which is a situation all major corporations in a position to care are working towards.

      Which is also the reason anti-globalism and protectionist policies are becoming more prevalent in modern politics. No one, except the corporations wanting to profit, wants to have their standard of living dragged down to whatever the poorest and most corrupt nations on earth will allow. Note,

    • agreed. the point is robots are cheaper than giving humans a half way comfortable living. If we are comparing their cost against the minimum necessary to keep a human alive and working in slave like conditions it will be a while. Now if we are talking about hypothetically ever getting these jobs back in first world countries, as well as not losing more first world jobs to robots, the threat is a bit greater.
      • No it isn't. So long as people can do something someone else values they will have jobs. End of discussion.
        • Values more than the cost of paying them to do it, and that the amount of people able to do it are somewhat comparable to the amount of people willing to do it for that price. If there's 10 people that want to mow my lawn... only 1 of them are going to get that job, actually bad example there, eventually those roomba style lawn mowers will come down in price to save me the money of hiring someone to mow my lawn.
    • Yes, either might take the jobs they currently have but this does not mean they won't find other jobs. If that is what happens then that is what will happen, it nobody's business but those offering the jobs.
    • So what? What does that straw man have to do with anything?

      Nothing. It's a "the technology isn't really ready yet" argument: it won't happen today, so it won't happen.

      The real argument is that technology doesn't ever replace labor; it augments it. The counterpoint to this will be when technology becomes labor, at which point it won't matter. A generic technology able to do anything without human tuning and improvement would be able to think and reason: it would be human.

      The magical thinking surrounding a world where work is no longer a thing has been arou

      • Sure, robotechnology will create new jobs - for people having advanced degrees in engineering, math, physics, accounting etc.
        The other 95% of the population are fucked.
        • You're still thinking vertically: fewer low-end workers and more high-end engineers making the robots who replace them. That thinking is incorrect even in its own sphere: you're not saving any money unless there are fewer engineers and robot maintainers making and maintaining the robots than there are laborers replaced by robots.

          Imagine if shoes can suddenly be made with half the labor in total. Not just half as many people sewing them together--maybe that doesn't even happen--but there are fewer peo

  • by reanjr ( 588767 ) on Sunday September 16, 2018 @10:37AM (#57323344) Homepage

    No one's claiming robots are going to put Africans out of work. No one gives a shit about Africans. Robots are going to put Americans and Europeans out of work.

    • by robsku ( 1381635 ) <robsukedaisukeNO@SPAMgmail.com> on Sunday September 16, 2018 @10:42AM (#57323356) Homepage

      And that will eventually lead to death of capitalism - good riddance, although I doubt I'll be alive to see that.

      • The free market exists only on EUrope or America ? O'really ? You are perhaps taking capitalism as some utopian academic idea, and not for the exchange of goods and price-finding system that it is.
        • by robsku ( 1381635 )

          The free market exists only on EUrope or America ? O'really ?

          Wait... what?

          I'm certain I said nothing even remotely like that. Anywhere. Ever.

          You are perhaps taking capitalism as some utopian academic idea, and not for the exchange of goods and price-finding system that it is.

          I'm not sure... no, correct that, I'm definitely sure I don't understand what you're trying to say here.

      • What do you think robots are? Hate to break it to you they are capital. Now once you can use robots to make robots capitalism will do what it has been trying to do since the beginning...drive costs to zero. The corporate/government types will not be pleased when you can get your first robot build it kit at age 12 and turn that into a robot army by 18. They won't appreciate the military or economic competition for power and control.

        Really after robots all we need is some FTL drive and there wont be mu

        • > Really after robots all we need is some FTL drive and there wont be much to stop us from colonizing the galaxy.

          Why bother ? If you're the 1% who controls the robots, you can simply order them to exterminate everybody else, and you'll have the whole planet to yourself.

          • That's a dangerous game for the 1% to play. Once the culling starts, nobody is safe. For reference see every single violent revolution in human history.

        • Comment removed based on user account deletion
        • by robsku ( 1381635 )

          What do you think robots are? Hate to break it to you they are capital. Now once you can use robots to make robots capitalism will do what it has been trying to do since the beginning...drive costs to zero.

          Has it really? Capitalism doesn't do or try anything. Capitalists do - and they most certainly aren't trying to drive costs to zero. They would call it socialism, although really it wouldn't be - it would be a new kind of system, free of capitalism OR socialism as economic systems.

    • No one gives a shit about Africans.

      All the manufacturing giants do. There will continue to be jobs for humans for some time, and now that labor costs in China have risen, all eyes are on Africa. The jobs which aren't highly automated will continue to go overseas, and they will go to Africa.

      • by vtcodger ( 957785 ) on Sunday September 16, 2018 @11:14AM (#57323444)

        "The jobs which aren't highly automated will continue to go overseas, and they will go to Africa"

        I can think of jobs that aren't easily automatable. But few of them seem candidates for shipping off the Africa. For example, picking apples can't currently be done by machines because the fruit bruises easily, and picking has to be done without damaging next year's buds. But shipping the whole tree off to the DRC to be plucked seems somewhat impractical.

        I'd sure like to see a list of specific industries that will be moving to Ghana, Liberia, Uganda, et.al.to take advantage of the cheap labor. And why not move work to Afghanistan or Mongolia? which have (on paper anyway) easy access to existing trade infrastructure. It's not like running rail lines from the existing Eurasian rail network requires new technology.

        • As usual, the stuff that humans can do with their hands that robots have a hard time with, lacking the nimbleness and dexterity. Largely cheap textiles, those are already sent to Bangladesh and Vietnam, but even those are starting to get pricier. People count on having their $20 T-shirts, or other cheap clothes. The other thing will be any form of manufacturing because the case is that even in a automated setup, you need industrial engineers to properly plan and layout production lines to maximize profit,
        • I don't mean to sound like an ass, but if that's your take on "a job too complicated for a robot" then I believe you are misinformed.

          The technology to identify and do everything you've specified as being constraints exists. The only thing stopping them from taking over is the idea that one of them would cost something close to a couple hundred thousands dollars, likely a quite a bit more otherwise I feel like we'd be seeing them already in crops owned by very wealthy individuals/businesses (Maybe we are, I

        • by Kjella ( 173770 )

          I can think of jobs that aren't easily automatable. But few of them seem candidates for shipping off the Africa. For example, picking apples can't currently be done by machines because the fruit bruises easily, and picking has to be done without damaging next year's buds. But shipping the whole tree off to the DRC to be plucked seems somewhat impractical.

          Everything related to harvesting a raw material obviously has to be where that raw material is. And some things are perishable, apples are both so they're pretty safe from outsourcing. But everything else... just to take a random example here from Norway, a lot of the bread is actually no longer made here. It comes half-baked and frozen, here they simply put it in the oven and finish it. I have a friend that works in construction, more and more comes as prefab modules like say entire bathrooms and in case o

        • Trials in Washington state, uses a vacuum kind of thing to grab the apple. It may not be ready today but the writing is on the wall.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
        • I'd sure like to see a list of specific industries that will be moving to Ghana, Liberia, Uganda, et.al.to take advantage of the cheap labor. And why not move work to Afghanistan or Mongolia?

          Afghanistan, and a number of countries in Africa, are not going to be a popular outsourcing destination because of political instability.

    • That is not insightfull, but dumb.
      In Europe everything is already done by Robots.
      Ah, obviously no one would visit a shop where the 'burger flipper' is not a hot chick or a hot guy ... In case you mean that with 'robot'.

  • "more realistic"? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by sacrilicious ( 316896 ) <qbgfynfu.opt@recursor.net> on Sunday September 16, 2018 @11:11AM (#57323436) Homepage

    a consortium of researchers who aim to provide economics insights with a more realistic basis

    "More realistic" than what? What is the yardstick or basis of comparison here, and how do they evidence whether they are in fact hitting their mark?

  • by Anonymous Coward

    All this fucking neoliberals barfing always the same old nonsense.

    The problem is -- and has always been -- to regard workforce (i.e. human time) as a ware, subject to the "laws" of supply and demand. Automation reduces demand, slowly lowering the prices in times where everything else goes up (especially real estate, and thus rents).

    You won't see the "robots" substituting human labor at a given moment, but you are seeing (you've been seeing now from the 70ies, if you've been paying attention) the less-earnin

    • You won't see the "robots" substituting human labor at a given moment, but you are seeing (you've been seeing now from the 70ies, if you've been paying attention) the less-earning people earning less and less.

      By "paying attention" you must be talking about your personal anecdotes. Otherwise you would know that wages for most workers (including your "poorest") have remained essentially unchanged for the last 30 years. They declined slightly from the 70s to the mid 90s and have been rising at a similar rate since then.

      http://www.pewresearch.org/fac... [pewresearch.org]

      The whole subprime crisis in the USA can be seen as an "adjustment" in this direction.

      Again, nonsense. The subprime crisis was an adjustment for the fact that housing had become insanely overpriced. It's not wages that were the problem but rather

  • by Paul Fernhout ( 109597 ) on Sunday September 16, 2018 @11:42AM (#57323550) Homepage

    To begin with, since African labor is currently cheaper than Chinese labor and has been for decades, why aren't all iPhones made in Africa?

    Consider:
    * it's not just cost of labor but also quality of output by labor (related to training and life experience)
    * the need for surrounding physical infrastructure (like reliable electricity)
    * the need for surrounding social infrastructure (like a hierarchical work ethic)
    * the need for surrounding political infrastructure (like rule of law and low corruption)
    * the cost of transportation (including local transportation to and from ports)
    * the cost of language barriers
    * the cost of cultural barriers

    Ultimately, to understand why the premise is wrong of all labor being done in Africa instead of by robots, ask yourself, why do you have a local printer or local copier in your home and office when it would be much cheaper per page to have everything printed and copied in a central print shop ten miles away? The answer is that the cost per page is not as significant to you as other values like convenience, turnaround, transportation, privacy, and security.

    Most humans in any location are less and less employable relative to robots and AI because human output is of more variable quality, humans take breaks, humans don't work 24X7, humans get sick, humans file lawsuits about working conditions, humans steal things, and humans require safer climate-controlled workplaces. Those are some of the same reasons almost everyone now drives horseless carriages instead of keeping several horses in a barn.

    Humans still have some advantages relative to robots and AI in some situations -- e.g. why Telsa should have set up a human-powered assembly line first and then automated when most of the routine needs were clearer. Long term though AI and robots will outperform human labor in almost all situations. Thus the need for a basic income, a gift economy, improved subsistence production with 3D printers and gardening robots, and/or democratically-planned government projects.

    See also: "Humans Need Not Apply"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

    • They're saying other countries are moving away from their ways, since a lot of Asian economies are maturing, and only Africa remains to exploit.
      You mentioned corruption. Oh, trust me, they will need corruption if they're going to replace what the Asian economies have provided to the Western world for some time. How else do you treat millions of people like slaves? Good, acting businessmen certainly don't.

    • "the cost of transportation (including local transportation to and from ports)"* the need for surrounding physical infrastructure (like reliable electricity)"

      You have a warped view of Africa, 19th century style. it ain't the shanty hut continent. This IS Africa : https://www.123rf.com/photo_71... [123rf.com] and there are similar to other countries than Kenya. Yes when you go into rural country you don't see that cityscape, but between major country and capital there is even highway, major electricity production cente

      • by Paul Fernhout ( 109597 ) on Sunday September 16, 2018 @07:05PM (#57325058) Homepage

        So, sure, one may find specific combinations of infrastructure somewhere. For example:
        https://sourcingjournal.com/to... [sourcingjournal.com]
        ""The next China is not a where, it's a how you do business," he said. "But Africa seems to be the emergence of the next China." Africa today is much like China was in the late 80s and early 90s, McRaith explained. There's little there, but the continent is developing. The first thing to consider, however, McRaith said, is that the sizable continent cannot be discussed as one region and understood as such. Africa is big enough to fit all of the world's major players within it: the United States, China, India, Eastern Europe, Japan, the U.K., Spain, France, Germany and Italy, among others. "Africa is of a scale we've never dealt with," he said."

        But it may be harder than you suggest. For your example of Nairobi, consider electrical infrastructure:
        http://www.afd.fr/en/reliabili... [www.afd.fr]
        "The poor performance of Kenya's energy sector hampers the country's economic development and poverty reduction strategy: per capita electricity consumption is low, the country suffers relatively frequent power cuts, and small proportion of the population has access to electricity, while the average tariff in the last five years was $0.15 per kilowatt hour, one of the highest in sub-Saharan Africa."

        And:
        https://medium.com/@kyleschutt... [medium.com]
        "You will be robbed in Nairobi, inevitably. No one really talks about it because it is a bit awkward, but it should be discussed. You should know what to do. Except for my sister, everyone I know in Nairobi has been robbed, especially if they own a business. After all, the city's nickname is Nairobbery. ..."

        And:
        https://travel.state.gov/conte... [state.gov]
        "Terrorist threats remain in Kenya, including those aimed at U.S., Western, and Kenyan interests, within the Nairobi area, along the coast, and within the northeastern region of the country. Terrorist attacks have cumulatively resulted in the death and injury of hundreds of people since 2011. Over the last year, most incidents have occurred in the northeastern border region of the country; there have been no major attacks in Nairobi, Mombasa, or other major cities in the last two years. ...
        CRIME: Crime in Kenya is a regular occurrence and Kenyan authorities have limited capacity to deter and investigate such acts. Violent and sometimes fatal criminal attacks, including home invasions, burglaries, armed carjackings, muggings, and kidnappings can occur at any time. ..."

        Can large businesses set up generators (or locate near cheap hydropower perhaps), hire private security (ignoring some of those thefts mentioned were inside jobs), build gated compounds for executives and their families, and so on? Of course, but it all adds to the costs and risks of doing business.

        Work ethic is a complex topic -- and note I said "hierarchical" work ethic, meaning people's willingness to submit to a big corporation versus their desire to work for themselves and/or their family, village, or tribe. One study from 2011 comparing Chinese and South African work ethic:
        https://www.emeraldinsight.com... [emeraldinsight.com]
        "South Africa is a developing country, and within this context, it is essential to be economically competitive and proactive. Various sources reveal that the national productivity has been traditionally low, and continues to remain low. Within the context of the international arena, this is unacceptable. If South Africa is to become a recognised role player in the internationa

    • by GuB-42 ( 2483988 )

      Gift economy? 3D printers? Democratically-planned government projects?
      Nice ideal, but no.
      - A gift economy is still an economy. It is not based on pure altruism but on social rules that are much more complex than market economies. Passed a certain scale, gifts stop being gifts, they are a way of asserting power, repaying debts, etc... just like with money in a capitalist society. The difference is that in a market economy, we have clear rules. We know how much we will need to pay back, interest rates, etc...

      • Thanks for your comment, and while those are all good points, I feel they a missing the forest for the trees.

        While you are right for one type of gift economy, there are at least two types of gift economy. The first is as you outlined about maintaining social status in a social network (like for some Native American tribes that used the Potlatch ceremony). But there is also another form (or aspect) of gift economy based around volunteering semi-anonymously to give back to the larger community -- like with al

  • by Anonymous Coward

    "At the moment, however, robots are much too expensive to replace thousands upon thousands of workers in labour-intensive industries, most of which are in the very early stages of the industrialization process. Robots are currently best used in technologically more demanding fields like the automobile or electronics industry. "

    In other news, batteries are too expensive to use in cars, there's only a worldwide demand for maybe a dozen computers, and scientists prove that man can never fly!

  • by Crashmarik ( 635988 ) on Sunday September 16, 2018 @12:23PM (#57323722)

    Even a rapid drop in robot prices would not lead to the replacement of workers by robots in the short term in Africa where countries lag far behind in terms of fast internet and other information and communications technologies. They also lack well-trained IT experts. Other problems include an unreliable power supply, high energy costs and high financing costs for new technologies. For these reasons, it would be difficult and expensive to integrate robots and other digital technologies into African production lines.

    The article describes the place as a location nobody sane would want to locate manufacturing. Low cost is important but only as it relates to high productivity. Capitalism depends on the ability of capital to increase production and profit.

  • Robots already have replaced thousands of thousands of workers!
    Or do you realy think a german or swedish car is made by humans?
    Sure, there are still a few involved. But compare the number of workers of today with the late 1970s ... Probably it dropped ny a factor of 1000, most cdrtainly it is more than a factor of 100!

  • Why would they install robots in Africa? Manufacturing will move closer to the markets to reduce cost of logistics.
    • Manufacturing will move closer to the markets to reduce cost of logistics.

      Our logistical infrastructure is really efficient. Transportation costs of goods are so low that it doesn't really drive decisions. As one example, it costs more in transportation costs for you to drive a mile to the store to pick up a toothbrush than it does to ship if from China.

  • by bjwest ( 14070 ) on Sunday September 16, 2018 @07:20PM (#57325098)

    It will take quite a lot of time before robots become cheaper than workers in emerging markets such as Africa...

    How long will I have to wait for my burger in the drive through if it's made in Africa?

  • ...you haven't built many automation systems.

    Automation, whether software or robotic, is HARD to get right.

    Even the stuff called "AI" is difficult and expensive to train, and any time you throw something new at it, you have to start over.

    Robots ARE taking over all our most mundane, routine jobs, yes. But they will not be able to take over more complex jobs for a long, long time.

  • What it comes down to is that I want a robot more than I want a job.

    The foolish unions are working hard to prevent robots from being created out of fear that jobs will vanish.

  • Who's going to put up a $1B factory in a place where the corruption/instability is so bad? The few cents you'd save in low labor costs would be eaten up by bribes, replacing stolen equipment, etc. And you'd never see payback. Even if human labor is dirt cheap there, robots will eventually become cheaper, so what's the point?

A committee takes root and grows, it flowers, wilts and dies, scattering the seed from which other committees will bloom. -- Parkinson

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