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Intel AMD Businesses Hardware

'We've an Unexpected Manufacturing Advantage For the First Time Ever': Intel's Manufacturing Glitch Opens Door For AMD (theinformation.com) 136

Over at The Information (paywalled), reporter Aaron Tilley has a splendid interview of Forrest Norrod, a senior executive who joined AMD four years ago. Mr. Norrod describes the challenge AMD has faced over the years and how, for the first time ever, it sees a real shot at making a significant dent in the desktop market. From the report: Advanced Micro Devices' battle with chip giant Intel has often seemed like a gnat fighting an elephant, with AMD struggling in recent years to gain even a tenth of the market for the chips that power PCs and data center servers. Forrest Norrod, a senior executive who joined AMD four years ago, says the company suffered from "little brother syndrome" where it tried and failed to compete with Intel on lots of different chips. Now, though, AMD may have a shot at coming out with a faster, more powerful chip than Intel for the first time. Intel in April said it was delaying the release of a more advanced chip manufacturing process until sometime in 2019. AMD has its own new, advanced chip, which it will now be able to release earlier than Intel, potentially giving it an edge in the market for high-performance chips for PCs and data center computers.

It's a market opportunity worth around $50 billion. That's what Intel makes from selling chips for PCs and data center servers, and it dominates both markets. The data center market is particularly important because of the growth of new technologies like artificial intelligence-related applications, much of which is handled in the cloud. Companies that buy chips for data centers or PCs could gravitate to AMD chips as a result of Intel's delay. "I think we have a year lead now," said Mr. Norrod, who oversees AMD's data center business. AMD now has "an unexpected [manufacturing] advantage for the first time ever," he added.

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'We've an Unexpected Manufacturing Advantage For the First Time Ever': Intel's Manufacturing Glitch Opens Door For AMD

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  • by Kohath ( 38547 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:30PM (#56750912)

    This is why the rumor about Apple making their own Mac CPUs is believable. Intel lost their 18 month chip fabrication lead and they are now 9-12 months behind TSMC.

    • That and Apple has a history of dropping CPU Chip makers. While your old 8088 XT is similar and still maintains a lot of compatibility with your Core i7 8th gen processor Dell.
      Even with just the Macintosh line had 3 major chip changes, it is actually due for one now.

      • I think that was the chip in my p.o.s. 1000EX. I hated that computer: "Tandy 16color but no EGA." WTF.
    • by dfghjk ( 711126 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:07PM (#56751208)

      "This is why the rumor about Apple making their own Mac CPUs is believable "

      No it isn't. Apple doesn't even bother updating its product lines with current Intel offerings so it's hard to believe that Intel lagging behind is even a small problem for Apple.

      That's not to say Apple's interest in making their own CPU's isn't believable, just that Apple wouldn't do it for this reason.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        They don't update their product lines because Intel isn't delivering any fucking value or performance increases with minor revisions... LPDDR4 in configurations bigger than 16GB being the biggest complaint to date which is totally an Intel problem.

      • It could be related.. they don't want to invest in their intel products if they have a completely new line coming out.
      • That could actually be part of the reason why Apple has not updated the Mac mini and MacBook Air in years, because these two computers will be the first ones to be converted to Apple's own desktop-class ARM processors. Imagine something two or three times as powerful as an iPad pro. macOS can run on the low-end Intel m3 of the MacBook so I don't see why a switch to ARM would be impossible.

      • by jwhyche ( 6192 )

        I don't know. Back when the rumor came out that Apple might pony up their own chips I thought it would be a mistake. Now, with all intels issues with bugs, I think it might be a smart move for Apple to look into this. I read a report that Apple is about to become the first Trillion dollar company, go apple, so its not like they don't have the cash to waddle in this direction.

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      This is the real key.

      Intel has managed to stay ahead in the scaling race. The die shrink lets them speed up and reduce the power and stay ahead of their x86 competition and within spitting distance of the low power ARMs.

      If they can't stay ahead in that... they've lost their biggest advantage.

      Everyone seems to be thinking this is about AMD... it's not just them. AMD is fabless. They don't care who fabs their designs. Intel is being attacked from the bottom too... by ARM and they don't care who fabs their des

      • by Kohath ( 38547 )

        It's not going to fail immediately, but there's a stink of decay about Intel these days.

        On the contrary, Intel will do great. PCs are doing ok and could servers are selling very well. Intel will still get a majority of that business, and they have good margins. Intel also has Altera, Movidius, MobileEye, Flash RAM, Optane 3D crosspoint RAM, and other product lines.

        The global semiconductor industry grew 27% in 2017. It will grow 20% in 2018. Intel might underperform the industry for a few quarters, but they will still do well. They are positioned well for future growth in 5G and autonomou

        • 3 million IOS and Android devices used for Internet consumption... I can only see that number doubling. Windows desktops... not so much.

          SSD > NVME? not many users can tell the difference once they migrate to SSD, even at SATA 3GBps.

          Commodity and COTS, can Intel hang with the cool kids???

  • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:30PM (#56750916)

    Back in 2005 time AMD was making significant headway in becoming the Chip for your PC right before Intel released the Core duo chip. The Pentium Line was getting aging and the Pentium-5 wasn't that popular and AMD was the chip for your PC. AMD had about a year or two of popularity.

    Then Intel made the Intel Core Duo and the Core 2 Duo chip (64 bit) which put AMD back. But right before then, Intel was seen as the dying giant.

    • Back in 2005 time AMD was making significant headway in becoming the Chip for your PC right before Intel released the Core duo chip. The Pentium Line was getting aging and the Pentium-5 wasn't that popular and AMD was the chip for your PC. AMD had about a year or two of popularity.

      Then Intel made the Intel Core Duo and the Core 2 Duo chip (64 bit) which put AMD back. But right before then, Intel was seen as the dying giant.

      Wasn't there also something about AMD selling some of their fab-lines to Motorola/Freescale at a most inopportune time, or something like that?

    • by ITRambo ( 1467509 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:38PM (#56750990)
      That's correct. At one point AMD briefly passed 50% of retail desktop sales, thanks to the Athlon 64. Intel came back strong and almost crushed AMD who screwed up with the A-series and other pre-Ryzen processors.
      • by Anonymous Coward

        came back strong

        I think you meant "bribed every OEM not to buy AMD chips, which robbed AMD of the cash they needed to do the R&D needed to stay on top, while Intel could keep selling their substandard chips and rely on manufacturing being too capital intensive for any competitors to keep up."

        Catching up with someone isn't much of a comeback if you depend on having hired hands impeding your competitor.

        • Wait a minute. Although I like AMD's underdog status, and have zero love for Intel, AMD's chipsets are perhaps even more dangerous than Intel's at this point, and they STILL HAVEN'T DELIVERED a fix for Epyc and Ryzen vulnerabilities. They ignore it like a health insurance provider breach.

          There is NO good reason to buy either organization's chips until they fix the design, and with it, the code needed for quite a few apps (looking at you, VMware and Hyper-V) to get permanently fixed. Right now, the patch lis

      • by Kjella ( 173770 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:50PM (#56751498) Homepage

        At one point AMD briefly passed 50% of retail desktop sales, thanks to the Athlon 64.

        If I remember correctly it was retail CPU sales excluding pre-built systems from OEMs, Intel was still by far the biggest by total volume.

        Intel came back strong and almost crushed AMD who screwed up with the A-series and other pre-Ryzen processors.

        The actual screw-up was earlier, when AMD stretched waaaaaaaay too far to buy ATI for $5.4 billion where $4.2 billion was cash. That's the war chest AMD should have had to counter Intel Core 2, instead they were stretched super thin. To cut development cost they replaced manually designed circuits with inferior designs created by automation and they couldn't afford to invest as much as they should in process technology so that even then they managed an equivalent design they were behind on cost, performance and power consumption. Meanwhile ATI was under siege by nVidia and couldn't really contribute much and there wasn't really all that much gained by APUs over discrete/integrated graphics because it took special code paths to take advantage and the niche was too small.

        Strategically it was also a huge mistake because sure ATI would be fully aligned with AMD (the CPU side). But it meant nVidia had little choice but to deal with Intel on their terms, which Intel used to kick nVidia out of the integrated chipset business and then took all integrated graphics on Intel chips for themselves. AMD opened that door and Intel said "look, we're just doing what the competition is doing". Even if worst case Intel had bought ATI as was rumored they'd have gotten nVidia's full support for free in the fight against Chipzilla instead of paying billions. They should have seen that the battle wouldn't be that easily won instead of thinking CPUs was in the box, on to GPUs...

        • when AMD was good Intel bullied dell and others to not use AMD

        • Meanwhile ATI was under siege by nVidia and couldn't really contribute much and there wasn't really all that much gained by APUs over discrete/integrated graphics

          That is just false. AMDs APU graphics could/can actually play games worth a salt.
          • by Kjella ( 173770 )

            That is just false. AMDs APU graphics could/can actually play games worth a salt.

            Absolutely, but the division of labor between the CPU and GPU remains pretty much the same. The theory with APUs was that you'd mix and match CPU and GPU resources, calling the GPU for parallelism more because of the tight interconnect compared to going over PCIe. In reality AMDs APUs provided competitive value to Intel's CPU + nVidia GPU but they didn't really add any extra value. The gamer market didn't care because they used dGPUs anyway, in fact it's only when AMD released Zen processors with no graphic

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      There's a lot more to it than that. AMD had far better chips for just over 6 years but Intel had a huge head start in terms of brand recognition and market share, as well as far more fabrication capacity. While their market share dropped over the years as people discovered that AMD CPUs were faster, more reliable, ran cooler and cost less all at the same time, Intel used every dirty trick they could to keep AMD from growing. Despite that, AMD continued to become more popular, and Intel decided to throw thei

      • While their market share dropped over the years as people discovered that AMD CPUs were faster, more reliable, ran cooler and cost less all at the same time

        I'll accept faster and cooler, but for a long time Intel was shipping thermal throttling and AMD wasn't. In some cases, this was a problem for Intel. We had an Opteron cluster and a P4 Xeon cluster. When the cooling failed in a node on the AMD cluster, the CPU burned and the node died. The cluster management system noted the failure and redistributed the work. With the P4 cluster, the CPU would clock down to something tiny like 200MHz. It would still be responsive to command messages and so work would

    • Except AMD will have nothing performance wise to offer even with this delay. bang for buck, yes, but CPU cost is tiny thing to businesses that buy servers

      • Except AMD will have nothing performance wise to offer even with this delay.

        But won't they? The way I see it now, both in bang for buck and in actual raw power AMD have some decent offerings either on the shelf or about to come out the door. Sure, they don't have a 72 core big chip on the market, but honestly that kind of stuff makes up such a small percentage of the servers on the market that it borderline isn't relevant. And chips like the Threadripper are within the low double digit percentage points of the top tier offerings from Intel core for core.

        If you absolutely must have

    • Yeah, I was a huge AMD fan when AMD was better.

      Cyrix was also better; however, Intel sued them, lost, and destroyed their capital holdings in the process, sending them out of business anyway.

    • by epine ( 68316 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @04:22PM (#56752074)

      But right before then, Intel was seen as the dying giant.

      No serious observer regarded Intel as a dying giant, though you'd have my vote for a Napoleonic (Itanium) psychopath (RDRAM), sleeping off a boozy bender (Prescott, Caminogate).

      One humble phone call to their Israeli design center ("maybe let's just put the engineers back in charge for a short while"), and Intel bounced right back off the matt again, big time, rocking those giant abulous fabs we all knew they were still packing under their delirious anti-competitive power-grab.

      For about a five year period, during their Hewlett Packard joint venture, that must have been one hell of dysfunctional board room, perhaps even arcing as high as 100 mFi (milli-Fiorinas).

      Itanium Sales Forecasts edit.png [wikimedia.org]

      I can never review that chart without hearing Julie Andrews in my inner ear chirruping gaily away about kettles of kittens and mittens of string.

    • Back in 2005 time AMD was making significant headway in becoming the Chip for your PC right before Intel released the Core duo chip. The Pentium Line was getting aging and the Pentium-5 wasn't that popular and AMD was the chip for your PC. AMD had about a year or two of popularity.

      Then Intel made the Intel Core Duo and the Core 2 Duo chip (64 bit) which put AMD back. But right before then, Intel was seen as the dying giant.

      What actually happened was at the turn of the century Pentium III was replaced with Pentium 4, which had a worse per clock and per watt performance than Pentium III. But Intel kept pushing it because Mhz. They were also thinking Itanium was the way of the future.

      AMD managed to make cheaper, lower MHz, faster chips. They also invented x86-64 with full backwards capability.

      Intel kept pushing the Spaceheater 4. That thing was such an energy hog it was completely unsuitable for laptops. Intel in Israel created

      • by GuB-42 ( 2483988 )

        Netburst wasn't just justified by marketing reasons (moar MHz) but by technical reasons. The idea of using a very long pipeline combined with high frequencies sounded good at the time. They just didn't expect heat to be that much of an obstacle. Turned out it was, so they shifted their focus on their more energy efficient line (Pentium M), with the added bonus on not having to maintain two separate micro-architectures.
        And while Netburst definitely was a failure, I'm quite sure that they managed to salvage p

        • Plus they expected the frequencies to be able to keep going up. They quickly hit 4GHz and the wall. If 10GHz has been feasable maybe Netbust would have been a competitive architecture, but the power requirements and thus heat does not scale linear, and it appears 5GHz the maximum frequency for 2000 tech as it is for todays tech.

        • NetBurst wasn't a failure of microarchitecture, it was a failure of process technology. NetBurst was designed on the assumption that Intel's fab people would be able to produce 10GHz versions in 2005, in the same power budget as the 2GHz version in 2000. This failed dismally and was one of the first indications that Intel's dominance over fabrication techniques was not going to last forever. If Intel in 2005 had been able to produce the process technology that they were forecasting in 1996, when the NetB
    • Well... The core2 duo was the best FSB chip, but AMD had the integrated HyperTransport memory bus and it kicked ass. So much that I asked Dell for Engineering workstations and servers for the enterprise.

      I was told by Dell that nobody was asking for AMD, I was the ONLY one who wanted something other than Intel. Secretly Dell was taking billions a year in "Partner Promotions" that magically appeared under the rug if they never sold ANY AMD based systems.

      http://money.cnn.com/blogs/leg... [cnn.com]

      That is a huge kick

  • by bobbied ( 2522392 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:31PM (#56750928)

    Isn't capitalism grand! You stubble and you failed!

    Intel isn't in any danger here. AMD may gain market share and Intel may make less money, but this isn't the beginning of the end of Intel. Not by a long shot. It may mean that AMD finds it easier to be competitive, but Intel will get it's manufacturing back on track eventually and recover.

    It's going to take more than a couple of stumbles for Intel to fall to second place to AMD.

    • More to the point, There are a lot of vendors who partner with Intel, it will take time to end out their contract and make a good one with AMD. Then these partners will need to make sure they don't make AMD Chips sound like the budget alternative.

    • This is a very difficult time to have lost this much ground on manufacturing. Though straight comparison of feature size doesn't tell the whole story due to Intel's better use of vertical space, TSMC's 7nm node is currently making chips that do beat the still future Intel 10nm node in transistor density comparisons. Furthermore, TSMC is scheduled to iterate to a 7nm+ process to further boost transistor density by the end of the year. So their version 2 process will also be out, in 2 fabs, before Intel plans

    • Isn't capitalism grand! You stubble and you failed!

      Capitalism doesn't apply here; Intel is too big to fail.

      If it ever stumbled so bad that it was put at risk of being bought up by some Chinese company, the US government would step in and kibosh that plan in a heartbeat, using a taxpayer-funded bailout if necessary.

  • by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:32PM (#56750934)

    If I've learned anything about Intel from their past behavior then it's that they will lie, cheat and steal if that's what it takes to suppress AMD. I wouldn't be surprised if they paid off a bunch of companies to have a supply disruption occur, bad firmware updates bricking machines or creating a shell company to make purposefully shitty AMD machines.

    Honestly, the FTC should have had their boot on Intel's neck decades ago and kept it their.

  • You forgot about AMD K7, the Athlon series, that make a big dent in the intel market share and it just didn't had more success due to Intel dirty moves and AMD manufacturing problems.

    But yes, Ryzen and friends are good CPUs with more potencial growth and intel plans will be lagging, giving the opportunity for AMD leapfrog intel.

    I do hope so, competition is good and while ARM did add more competition, it failed to enter the desktop and just barely entered server market

  • Seen this before (Score:5, Interesting)

    by ghoul ( 157158 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:46PM (#56751052)

    K8.
    Intel tried to make its next chip in Bangalore and screwed up so the K8 Opteron was a better chip and for a year AMD was the darling of the markets.
    Intel caught up and ate AMDs lunch. AMD instead of using the windfall from the Opteron to build a sustainable chip pipeline (3-4 chips in dev instead of 1-2) used the moeny to buy ATI.
    People in the CPU div were pissed when the 40 dollar RSUs went to 3 dollar.
    But with AI and computation shifting more towards GP-GPUs than CPUs the ATI purchase has now started to payoff.

    • That was different. The Althon and Opteron were both better designs than Intel, but were made using an older process technology. The first Opterons were made on a 130nm process in 2003, moving to 90nm in 2005. The Pentium 4 was using 130nm 2002 and moved to 90nm in 2004 - Intel had a clear one-year lead on process technology. AMD only kept up by having much better processor designs.
  • TSMC will be killing it in the 7nm space and with rumors of Apple switching to their ARM chips for future computers Intel is about to face a drop of some CPU business.
  • Intel also hurt them selfs by sticking it to users.

    On stuff like jacking up prices / cutting pci-e lanes.

    raid keys

    The X299 UP to X pci-e lanes sucks!

    Desktop have been suck on 16+DMI for to long. Amd has 20+4+USB on die.

  • by Ecuador ( 740021 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:03PM (#56751168) Homepage

    Not for the first time. How old are you, 15? AMD's Athlon was faster than the P3, especially when the latter couldn't keep up with clock speeds (there was even a P3 that was unstable at the rated speed and had to be recalled), and then Athlon 64 was much faster than the P4 (esp. with 64 bit OSes) but most publications at the time were at Intel's pocket and were trying to pass off that absolute turd Netburst architecture as gold, while at the same time Intel was strong-arming or bribing system integrators into not using the superior AMD. So AMD has had better solutions for years in the past, but due to Intel's illegal tactics they did not gain a big enough market share. In the end, Intel was forced to pay a fine which was nothing compared to the revenue AMD lost over that time and that lost revenue when they had superior technology meant they eventually were not competitive which meant consumers lost.

    • but most publications at the time were at Intel's pocket and were trying to pass off that absolute turd Netburst architecture as gold

      Dark black coloured glasses much? I remember building a computer back in that time. The publications most definitely didn't pull any punches when talking about how inferior Netburst was to the Athlon 64 and most of the talk was about how the Athlon 64 would change the world. And it did. About the only negative thing anyone said about AMD at the time was related to TPD, and that was a generation behind. The good old Athlon may have spanked the P3, but it screamed with the delight of a Dyson in need of a bear

    • He may be talking about process nodes, which normally Intel win at - they're either straight up ahead or they get to it before others do.

      Intel 10nm appears delayed. AMD 7nm (actually 10, sigh) is probably going to beat Intel to shelves.

  • AMD64 anyone? (Score:5, Informative)

    by Attila Dimedici ( 1036002 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:13PM (#56751256)
    Has everyone forgotten AMD64?

    Back when Intel was trying to sell Itanium as the 64 bit successor to the x86 instruction set, AMD came out with what is now known as x86-64. It was worlds better than Itanium and Intel was forced to license it from AMD in order to stay in business (Of course, AMD had no choice but to offer Intel such a license on reasonable terms because it was built on the x86 architecture which AMD licensed from Intel).
    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • Primarily because legacy x86 software needed to be run in an emulator in order to run on it.
      • by complete loony ( 663508 ) <Jeremy@Lakeman.gmail@com> on Friday June 08, 2018 @09:16PM (#56753520)

        There's a huge amount of complexity in a modern x86 - x64 based CPU around decoding instructions and detecting where work can be done in parallel. Part of the Itanium design required shifting a bunch of complexity into the compiler.

        I can imaging that in the HPC space, where you really care about how fast this single loop is running, it makes sense to invest the engineering effort to improve the compiler. But that work had not been done.

        It's easy to sell a CPU that will run your existing binaries faster. It's hard to sell a CPU that will require massive investment on your part to recompile *everything*, with a compiler that doesn't exist yet, in order to see any benefit at all.

    • by jezwel ( 2451108 )

      Has everyone forgotten AMD64?

      Not here. AMD64 is my car number plate.

  • AMD had the lead for a while in the early days of the opteron, they introduced the 64bit architecture and were quite handily beating intel's p4 in benchmarks and power consumption, they also had the first dual core x86 chips, a faster memory controller and various other advantages.

  • by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Friday June 08, 2018 @07:31PM (#56753100)

    >Mr. Norrod describes the challenge AMD has faced over the years and how, for the first time ever, it sees a real shot at making a significant dent in the desktop market.

    And then we remember how the first Athlon wiped the table with Pentium 3 and Pentium 4.

  • The original Athlon was roughly the same speed as a Pentium 3 of the same clock rate, the late models were actually faster. They were simultaneously cheaper. The Athlon XP was comparable in power to the Netburst Pentium 4s. The Athlon X2s, having been designed from the beginning for dual-core operation due to their server heritage, were more efficient at multi-core operation than the Pentium Ds.

    AMD has been neck and neck more than once, and ahead at LEAST once.

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