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Cellphones Hardware Technology

Smartphone Shipments Declined For the First Time In 2017 (theverge.com) 144

Posted by BeauHD from the downward-sloping-demand-curve dept.
2017 was the first year that smartphone unit shipments didn't grow, according to a new Internet Trends report. "Shipments actually declined by 0.5 percent, as IDC noted in February," reports The Verge. "In 2016, shipments were lukewarm at 2 percent yearly growth, but this downturn is significant." From the report: Among smartphone shipments, Android and iOS have all but completely pushed out every other mobile operating system. And despite the growing price of today's top flagship devices, the average selling price of a smartphone has steadily fallen over the years. As more of the world now owns smartphones, growth has basically stalled. Similarly, internet user growth has only grown 7 percent in 2017, compared to 12 percent in 2016. More people are accessing the internet than ever, on an average of 5.9 hours a day. And they're browsing on mobile, indicating that they're just holding onto older models of phones instead of buying new ones.
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Smartphone Shipments Declined For the First Time In 2017 More

Smartphone Shipments Declined For the First Time In 2017

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  • Planned obsolesence (Score:1, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward

    I suspect it's in part because Apple got caught artificially slowing down older devices (and frankly, I think a number of Android vendors did too given how a number of my devices have become inexplicably unusably slow over time even if I uninstall all or reset to factory). Now that that practice has been bred out through consumer uproar, people are probably realising they don't actually need a phone every 2 years because most are good for 4 - 5 years for 99% of the population. It was only ever the process o

    • Re:Planned obsolesence (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Kjella ( 173770 ) on Sunday June 03, 2018 @06:05PM (#56721770) Homepage

      Now that that practice has been bred out through consumer uproar, people are probably realising they don't actually need a phone every 2 years because most are good for 4 - 5 years for 99% of the population.

      Estimated number of smartphone users: ~2.5 billion
      Smartphones sold each year: ~1.5 billion
      Estimated growth: ~200 million
      Average lifetime: 2500/(1500-200) = ~2 years

      The facts reject your hypothesis.

    • It's much more simple than that. It's because the number of smartphones in circulation is approximately the same as the number of humans alive. The slowdown will continue until we teach dogs and cats how to phone.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by q_e_t ( 5104099 )
        My cat and dog have tried, but my ass has phoned most.
      • That was the case in past years as well, but what is different is the fact that smartphones now have specs that are adequate and don't need upgrading. As an example, I upgraded from an iPhone 5s w/ 16GB storage last year to an iPhone 7 w/ 128GB. That is more than adequate for the foreseeable future i.e. until that phone dies! It's like w/ PCs over the last decade: people stopped upgrading b'cos PCs became fast enough for almost any and all tasks thrown at them.

    • I suspect it's in part because Apple got caught artificially slowing down older devices

      Apple slowed down those devices in order to avoid an expensive battery recall process.

      • I suspect it's in part because Apple got caught artificially slowing down older devices

        Apple slowed down those devices in order to avoid an expensive battery recall process.

        Yeah. Just that nobody wanted a battery replacement when the phones just shutdown. Only when they suddenly kept working , but somewhat slower when the CPU was taxed, then they complained they wanted a switch to turn back sudden shutdowns back on. But when Apple then offered a cheaper battery replacement process, people suddenly wanted the batteries replaced. So either Apple's plan failed spectacularly, or your conspiracy theory doesn't work.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

      I suspect it's in part because Apple got caught artificially slowing down older devices (and frankly, I think a number of Android vendors did too given how a number of my devices have become inexplicably unusably slow over time even if I uninstall all or reset to factory). Now that that practice has been bred out through consumer uproar, people are probably realising they don't actually need a phone every 2 years because most are good for 4 - 5 years for 99% of the population. It was only ever the process o

    • I suspect it's in part because Apple got caught artificially slowing down older devices

      Well, that could explain why Apple still sold more phones, but not why the others sold less. Isn't planned obsolescence supposed to increase sales?

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by AC-x ( 735297 )

      Don't you think a bigger factor is that hardware performance improvements outgrew software requirement increases? At this point even a several year old mid-range phone feels fast enough running the latest software, while previously smartphone hardware genuinely struggled to keep up with later more featured/bloated (delete for preference) software.

      Same thing happened in the PC space, remember when your PC felt slow, even obsolete every year trying to run the latest software? Now I can use a budget laptop fro

  • Because of poor people. (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Poor people are buying more phones. They can't afford a proper iPhone so they opt for a cheap Chinese Android piece of crap. Apple still had the lion's share of profit in all mobile phone sales.

  • Time for the next big thing (Score:3)

    by RhettLivingston ( 544140 ) on Sunday June 03, 2018 @05:41PM (#56721648) Journal
    I vote for ditching the display and the concept of holding the phone. The next big thing should be leaving the phone in your pocket and interacting with it via peripherals only with the primary display using augmented reality glasses.

    • I second this idea, with the addition of seeing the 3D girls of Dead or Alive Xtreme Beach Volleyball dressed in swimsuits walking around and the possibility of picking one of them to be your AI assistant.

    • I vote for ditching the display and the concept of holding the phone.

      Right after that, ditch the concept of using the phone.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      that's what I always wanted... can we start calling them computers again?

      • I second that. In terms of how they are used, they've never been smartphones. Browsing and messaging dominate the time spent on the device. It's a computer with a phone capability.

  • Missing a big factor (Score:5, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday June 03, 2018 @05:50PM (#56721702)

    Smartphone shipments haven't gone down. Android shipments have gone down. iPhone shipments have gone up (50.7m to 52.2m YoY).

    Average selling price hasn't gone down. Android average selling price has gone down. iPhone average selling price has gone up ($655 to $728 YoY).

    There's a story here, but it's not the one being told by the headline.

    • Re: (Score:2, Offtopic)

      by Tough Love ( 215404 )

      Q1 iPhone shipmments are off 1 million, YoY. If you are an Apple shareholder that ought to worry you. But then, you are an Apple cultist, so nothing worries you, including maxing out your credit to own it.

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Tough Love ( 215404 )

        Q1 iPhone shipmments are off 1 million, YoY. If you are an Apple shareholder that ought to worry you. But then, you are an Apple cultist, so nothing worries you, including maxing out your credit to own it.

        Apple cultists are not only unworried about these obvious warning signs, they will take the opportunity do downmod anyone who points them out, if they can. Makes me wonder what other slimy things Apple is in the habit of doing on social networks? Seems to come very naturally for Apple cultists, almost like it is corporate culture still living on from Dead Steve Jobs.

    • There's a story here, but it's not the one being told by the headline.

      Yeah the real story is that you just concluded that Apple doesn't sell smartphones, something which many people have been saying all along.
      The other story here is that Apple is still playing catchup and their platform hasn't matured yet. Shame, they were once so innovative.

  • Over five billion Android phones in use (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Tough Love ( 215404 ) on Sunday June 03, 2018 @06:08PM (#56721792)

    Based on the assumption that Android phones last about four years, which may be an underestimate (my own phone for example) then over five billion Android phones are in use right now. This is the real story, this is phenomenal. And all running Linux, this is even more phenomenal. We did something historical, maybe the biggest technology story ever. Certainly a key event in history.

    • Based on the assumption that Android phones last about four years, which may be an underestimate (my own phone for example) then over five billion Android phones are in use right now. This is the real story, this is phenomenal. And all running Linux, this is even more phenomenal. We did something historical, maybe the biggest technology story ever. Certainly a key event in history.

      yeah NO, that is a really bad assumption, you really think over 60% of the worlds population now uses an android smartphone? smartphone users are currently estimated at 2-2.5 billion (that includes ALL not just android). Smartphone life is currently estimated at around 2 years not 4.

      • My "smartphone" is an iPhone 4 from 2010 (not sure) ... I replaced the battery in January.
        People might throw away their phones, but that has nothing to do with the "life span".

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by Teckla ( 630646 )
          Aren't you worried about security vulnerabilities in such an old model of the phone (thus firmwares) and OS?

          • No,
            I don't do anything that can trigger security problems, unless you think browsing /. is a security problem :D

            • Re: (Score:2)

              by Teckla ( 630646 )
              I think there are some vulnerabilities in other areas too, like in the Bluetooth and Wi-Fi drivers, that might leave you vulnerable just by having one or both of those radios on. Not 100% sure about that though and the risk is probably minimal since it would require close physical proximity.

      • you really think over 60% of the worlds population now uses an android smartphone?

        Yes I do, that is why the sales growth stalled. Say, did you ever take a cab ride in a third world company? What is that in the driver's hand? Oh right, an android smartphone. See, everybody in the world who can afford a smartphone now has one. And given that used ones and low end ones are incredibly cheap, penetration is essentially the entire world, not just that little bubble full of unicorns that you live in.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by AvitarX ( 172628 )

      It seems unlikely that 5/7s the population is using an Android phone, or that their are enough double phone users to significantly impact that premise from 5 billion phones in use.

      Take out children, elderly, and super poor, it seems unlikely to me that their are even 5 billion smartphone users.

      • Whatever your source for statistics is, it is a bad one. Look, we know that Google shipped over 1 billion phones in 2015, yet some commonly cited statistics sources claim only 5% growth in total smartphones in use for that year. Somebody is out by more than a factor of 5, and it is not Google. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

        • then please find us a source. Every source I can see agrees that the numbers are somewhere around 2.5 billion for all smartphones in use. you are the one making up the stats that disagree with whats our there so please provide the citation!

          • Why don't you find your own source, are you that incapable. Here is one that looks more like reality. [zenithmedia.com] See, it agrees with sales figures provided by Google and Apple, which if they are not accurate, will send people to jail. See how that might help? Now, where the fuck are you getting your numbers.

            • I don't need a link, more than happy to use yours lol, even though those numbers are likely inflated by the ad company they still show you are a long way off. that link probably puts Android somewhere in the 3-3.5 billion range.

              • I don't need a link...

                Or a brain, it is wasted on you.

                • I don't need a link...

                  Or a brain, it is wasted on you.

                  yeah obviously I am the one that needs a brain https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com] , you are the one that gave that link that proved yourself wrong. you came up with a stupid number for lifetime of phones and now try to defend it or deflect it.

            • Re: (Score:2)

              by jeremyp ( 130771 )

              When you say "looks more like reality" what you really mean is "agrees with your preconceptions". The 66% by the way is in 52 countries i.e. not the whole World.

              • When you say "looks more like reality" what you really mean is...

                "Agrees with the number of phones that we know were shipped." Yes, thank you, that is exactly what I meant, now go back to wanking on your internet porn.

        • Re: (Score:1)

          by AvitarX ( 172628 )

          I don't take issue with the sales numbers, but it doesn't follow that there are therefore 5 billion in use.

          1) your 4 year typical use assumption is quite likely wrong (I know it is in the US, I can't speak to the world at large).
          2) your 66% source (for a tech heavy weighted list) doesn't actually list what they're defining as 100% saturation., but they're predicting 90% penetration. I can't prove it, but it seems very likely they are leaving out at the very least young people (6.5% of US population is unde

          • smartphones last a little over 2 years when there's 2.5 billion of them, where did you get your 4 year number?

            It is idiotic to suppose that smartphones only last 2 years when you are surrounded with evidence that they last at least twice as long. Where did get your 2 year number, and why would you trust that source?

          • What do you do with your own smartphone, drop it in the toilet twice a year to even out the figures?

            • Re: (Score:1)

              by AvitarX ( 172628 )

              Usually concrete, but yeah, I break a lot of them.

              They've existed how long, 9 years? I've had at least eleven (this one is pretty old at 8 months though, and 2 or 3 were defective (or broken charging ports that got Jarred and we're soldered to the board) and one was lost while skiing).

              I suspect the number over time skews low because 5 or so years ago they were pretty rapidly improving and replacements were less likely break related vs today.

              • Re: (Score:1)

                by AvitarX ( 172628 )

                In 2014, the Google numbers imply under 24 months, but lengthening.

                https://www.ben-evans.com/bene... [ben-evans.com]

                • Read your own link ffs. "The last time a daily rate was given was in May 2013 (1.5m a day), and the last number for cumulative activations was in September 2013" and "This of course excludes China, where Android devices do not use Google services". Other gotchas no doubt, those ones just jumped off the page at me. On the other hand, Google can't distort the number it actually shipped, that's illegal. We know those numbers.

                  Eleven phones in 9 years, nobody should listen to your opinion about how long a phone

    • Based on the assumption that Android phones last about four years

      How did you justify that assumption?

      • Based on the assumption that Android phones last about four years

        How did you justify that assumption?

        Eyes are amazing, particularly when used for reading.

        • Oh no I read it. I just assumed if your entire point lingered on one key assumption you would have more than one anecdotal data point. Maybe you should do some reading next time before making a post.

          • I get it. Your eyes only work for reading my posts. Not for gathering data from any other source, except for dubious sources that happen to support your noncritical thinking.

  • It's called "A Maturing Market" (Score:5, Insightful)

    by knorthern knight ( 513660 ) on Sunday June 03, 2018 @06:22PM (#56721858)

    1) At the beginning, item X (desktop PC, flatscreen TV, smartphone, whatever) is damn expensive and almost nobody except rich hipsters has one.

    2) As R&D costs are amortized and production lines ramp up, prices drop, more people can afford item X, and sales increase.

    3) Then really cheap Chinese knockoffs appear, and sales really take off.

    4) Eventually, everybody that wants one, and can afford one, has one. At that point sales drop down to replacement levels for older ones that wear out, fall on the floor, are stolen, whatever.

    A few years ago there was hoopla about "the end of the desktop PC". The PC market hasn't disappeared; it's matured and sales have stabilized at replacement levels. I expect the same to happen for smartphones.

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      So, funny story:

      Growing up I always had a desktop computer; from the Spectrum to the Amiga to Windows 7. I switched to laptops and OSX around Vista and I'm reasonably happy there.

      My cousins were a few years younger, and they made far more use of mobile devices, consoles for gaming, and had zero interest in general purpose computing outside of schoolwork. They'd borrow their parent's machines for homework, but everything else was on locked down devices. They're now getting into indie gaming and 3d modelling

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Raenex ( 947668 )

      This comment should be rated, "5: Obvious, but somebody had to say it."

  • Even high-end phones are commodities now (Score:3)

    by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Sunday June 03, 2018 @06:26PM (#56721886)

    My iPhone 6S will soon be 3 generations “behind”... but it does everything I want, and still gets security patches (as does its predecessor). Apple has apparently realized this - after all, they spent 1/3 of their iPhone spotlight event talking about how their glorious and great newest iPhone’s best feature was... turning yourself into a talking poop emoji. Oh, and they’ve once again made incremental improvements on the camera. Woo hoo!

    It’s not like it’s any different on the Android side, either.

    If you have a smartphone that was purchased within the past 4-5 years, and the phone is not physically broken - there’s just not a compelling reason to throw another $800-1000 at these companies.

    • but it does everything I want

      Advertise that you're too poor to afford a new fashion accessory every year?

      • Are they even fashion accessories anymore? I can't remember the last time anyone was 'excited' to see what kind of phone someone had. At least not since the Samsung whatevers were catching fire: "oh is that one of those ones that will explode? when are they sending you a new one?" Conversely, the last time I was on a campus I was shocked to see how many people had Apple Watches, in general public or at work there are few enough people wearing a watch of any kind, perhaps a fitness tracker here and ther

        • Are they even fashion accessories anymore? I can't remember the last time anyone was 'excited' to see what kind of phone someone had.

          Better question: Were they ever? I mean clearly they are some sort of symbol to someone. I doubt anyone upgraded their iPhone 7 to an 8 for all those amazing things their 7 couldn't do. Yet there are plenty of people who jumped on the opportunity for some reason. Someone still considers it as a symbol rather than a functional mini-computer / phone.

      • Advertise that you're too poor to afford a new fashion accessory every year?

        Dude, look at my username - that ship has sailed.

        • Bahahahhaah. Oh. Have an internet cookie. I tip my hat to you!

          Side note: I was being sarcastic, but that's kind of irrelevant now that I've spat coffee all over my laptop. :-D

          • Side note: I was being sarcastic, but that's kind of irrelevant now that I've spat coffee all over my laptop. :-D

            My work here is done!

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by antdude ( 79039 )

      My folks still like their 6 Pluses even though they are slower with iOS v11.x. I am OK with my free 4S I got from one of them even though very slow, bad original battery life, and unsupported. I rarely use it, but they want me to have a mobile phone. :/

  • ...was because the USB port finally gave out. I now have a Samsung Galaxy S8 Active. It's boring, it looks like a grey rectangle, but I can go swimming with it if I want to. Assuming the stupid built-in battery doesn't die out exactly when my two years are up, I'm gonna keep this around for a long time. All I use my phone for is some photography social media and web usage. I don't need a super duper phone.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Dzimas ( 547818 )

      Samsung will replace the battery for about $79. There's no need to replace your phone just because the battery's failing.

      • Re: (Score:1)

        by Anonymous Coward

        My phone battery costs $3.50 delivered and I pull them out and put them in all the time.

        This might be a cause of the decline in new phone sales, they're all crap now.

  • that gets me faster data and better signal strength. Nothing else is gonna make me bother with a phone upgrade. And all I've got is a $220 LG. And it doesn't help that folks learned that their iPhones just needed a new battery to run fast again.

  • My Note II from 2012 has 2GB, and the only reason I updated my phone was because there was no OS update any more. My current phone has specs similar to the old one, and i am perfectly fine with it. So I guess the market saturated simply because replacing your android phones will not give you as my added usability as it was a few years back.

  • Comment removed (Score:3)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday June 04, 2018 @10:49AM (#56724900)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion

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