The Road to Deep Decarbonization (bnef.com) 160
Michael Liebreich, writing for Bloomberg New Energy Finance: In the past fifteen years we have witnessed several pivotal points along the route towards clean energy and transport. In 2004, renewables were poised for explosive growth; in 2008, the world's power system started to go digital; in 2012, it became clear that EVs would take over light ground transportation. Today I believe it is the turn of sectors that have resisted change so far -- heavy ground transportation, industry, chemicals, heat, aviation and shipping, agriculture. One after the other, or more likely as a tightly-coupled system, they are all going to go clean during the coming decades.
Astonishing progress is being made on super-efficient industrial processes, connected and shared vehicles, electrification of air transport, precision agriculture, food science, synthetic fuels, industrial biochemistry, new materials like graphene and aerogels, energy and infrastructure blockchain, additive manufacturing, zero-carbon building materials, small nuclear fusion, and so many other areas. These technologies may not be cost-competitive today, but they all benefit from the same fearsome learning curves as we have seen in wind, solar and batteries. In addition, in the same way that ubiquitous sensors, cloud and edge-of-grid computing, big data and machine learning have enabled the transformation of our electrical system, they will unlock sweeping changes to the rest of our energy, transportation and industrial sectors.
Astonishing progress is being made on super-efficient industrial processes, connected and shared vehicles, electrification of air transport, precision agriculture, food science, synthetic fuels, industrial biochemistry, new materials like graphene and aerogels, energy and infrastructure blockchain, additive manufacturing, zero-carbon building materials, small nuclear fusion, and so many other areas. These technologies may not be cost-competitive today, but they all benefit from the same fearsome learning curves as we have seen in wind, solar and batteries. In addition, in the same way that ubiquitous sensors, cloud and edge-of-grid computing, big data and machine learning have enabled the transformation of our electrical system, they will unlock sweeping changes to the rest of our energy, transportation and industrial sectors.
"energy and infrastructure blockchain" (Score:5, Insightful)
That's when I knew he was full of hot air.
Re:"energy and infrastructure blockchain" (Score:5, Insightful)
Indeed. Anyone that mentions "blockchain" and "small nuclear fusion" in the same sentence is a certified kook. Even more so when he mentions fusion and "astonishing progress" together.
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Agreed. Also the electrification of aircraft? People are going to fly over oceans in solar powered ultralights? I donÃ(TM)t think so.
Haven't kept up, eh?
Electrically-powered aircraft, at first small single-engine types, are not far off at all given the rates of advancement we've seen regarding electric battery storage technology combined with new materials like carbon-fiber.
Look at the model aircraft world to see what is coming. Not many years ago the majority of RC model airplanes of any size were powered by ICEs. Now ICE-powered models, especially aircraft and quad-rotors, are becoming the exception rather than the rule.. Walk into a h
Electric aircraft are a long way off (Score:2)
Electrically-powered aircraft, at first small single-engine types, are not far off at all given the rates of advancement we've seen regarding electric battery storage technology combined with new materials like carbon-fiber.
"New materials like carbon fiber"? Carbon fiber has been around for decades. It's not even close to new. And as for the rate of advancement of battery tech, storage improves by a few percent per year [smithsonianmag.com]. It's slow steady incremental progress. The volumetric energy density of Li-Ion batteries has doubled since 1995. Good but hardly mind blowing rate of improvement. Doubling every 25 years isn't exactly speedy.
We have a few prototype small electric planes. Commercial airliners are in no danger of being d
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> wind resistance scales up exponentially
No.
Rgds
Damon
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I believe air resistance scales as the square of velocity, which is to say quadratic. Not linear, of course, but far from exponential.
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There is no battery technology existing or foreseen which is remotely capable of deployment at such scale
Sodium ion battery [wikipedia.org]
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You know, I still grind my teeth when people use "broadband" to mean "high bandwidth". But that's the way with words that are new to people; they inflate them with hot air until they're just a pretentious way of saying something simple.
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The use of superlatives was a pretty clear indicator before that. Somebody trying to get rich on feel-good cheerleading.
Re:"energy and infrastructure blockchain" (Score:5, Informative)
I have made myself rich (well, seven figures rich, so that's open for debate) on energy stocks and pretty much doing whatever anti-carbon folks say to NOT DOl I will happily continue because this is my retirement.
The S&P 500 has returned about +93% accumulated over the last 5 years. Investment in a broad energy sector ETF (VDE) would have made you a loss of about 8% it gets worse if you invested in coal (KOL) -20% or shale oil (FRAK) -41% oil and gas (XOP) -41% . You simply haven't made money in the energy sector for the last five years unless you've invested in solar (TAN) +43% or wind (FAN) +93% or nuclear (NLR) +31%. (ETFs randomly picked from the most popular at etfdb.com).
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Stay away from anything leveraged and you will do fine.
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Deep decarbonization (Score:5, Funny)
They are firing carbon based life form workers and are installing silicon based robots.
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+1 Funny
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So true!
Or not (Score:2)
We should terraform Earth making it a little warmer to stay away from Little Ice Ages anyway, which will make much more growable land in Canada, Asia, and Alaska.
This would have seemed reasonable in the 1960s or 1970s.
Re:Or not (Score:5, Informative)
That only ever sounded reasonable to the very few people who live in Canada, Siberia and Alaska. It never sounded reasonable to the billion people who've build their cities at sea level, who would much rather deal with the lowering sea levels of an ice age (which is an economic problem to be sure but one they can expand the city to adapt to) than rising sea level (a much much bigger economic problem).
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EVs (Score:2)
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Total cost of ownership of an EV over 5 years is less than an ICE car. Primarily because the fuel (electricity) is much cheaper (and getting cheaper each year due to wind and solar. Just like fossil fuel plants today are more expensive to run due to fuel cost than solar and wind (free "fuel"), ICE cars and trucks will be abandoned because of high cost.
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Re: EVs (Score:2)
The car takes you anywhere you want to go and you never have to go to a gas station or get the oil changed or fix the thousands of parts in the engine and transmission.
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Re: EVs (Score:2)
Lots of charging everywhere. Check out Plug share.com
I've been all over the Western US and Canada. There are a lot more electricity outlets than gas stations.
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All of the places I have charged are near shopping and restaurants. We usually schedule charging around meals. You can also just take a walk.
When we travel, we usually spend the time looking around and learning about places. Charging en route is an opportunity to spend a short time somewhere.
We usually charge overnight (destination charging at hotels, etc.) so drive until lunch and charge again. That's usually all we need for the days travel.
Not sure what you have in mind.
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It is actually worse than your analysis because part of that 2.54/gallon is federal/local taxes to maintain the roads (well so they say anyway). So once everyone is driving an electric, those road taxes have to come from the EV drivers making that cost/mile difference even smaller. At this moment in time, even with incentives and no road tax, it just is more expensive to drive an EV due to upfront cost.
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The Sentra sells for $15,000 less than a Tesla 3. The Tesla 3 is new so we don't know the cost of maintenance or resale, but I know the maintenance on the Sentra was well below the difference in purchase price minus fuel. I sold the Sentra for $12,000 less than what I paid and now have a more efficient ICE car that was still $10,000 less than a base Tesla 3.
You made the classic mistake of ignoring maintenance which on an EV is nearly 0 (which is why car salesmen hate EVs). Also, your estimate for yearly miles driven is about 1/4 of the US average. There are other EVs other than the Tesla 3. The better comparison would be the Volt but that would invalidate your entire argument as its cheaper than the Sentra I believe.
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You also need off-street parking to charge the car, and relying solely on public charge points is very inconvenient. This is a serious practical limitation to the use of EVs in many European cities like London right now, where off-street parking is rare.
Apartments (Score:2)
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London? You mean the city where three boroughs are trialling lamp-post charging to address on-street charging?
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Re:EVs (Score:4, Interesting)
You would only need a lamp post per address, if the *average* requirement was that every address needs to charge an EV every night. That is just nowhere near the truth:
1. Only about 50% of London households have a car
2. About 25% of London households have off-street parking
3. Given average British mileage of 150 miles per week, most EVs will only need recharging once per week (today, a Zoe, Leaf, Tesla can all manage that). That's a substantial over-estimate, given London driving distances are much shorter than average British which includes rural drivers covering much longer distances
So the average percentage of EVs that would need charging overnight on any one night is: 50% * 75% * 14% = about 5%. If you could get 1 lamp post per 10 households done with Ubitricity, you'd be more than fine with a hefty margin of error built in.
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1. You seem not to be familiar with the idea of averages. It's a shame, because it would be very helpful to you. Your approach to charging an EV is not the average approach.
2. You seem not to be familiar with London. The notion that a car is anyone's "only means to getting around a city in the case of an emergency" is ludicrous to a Londoner. We have the tube, the bus, AddLee, Uber, black cabs, etc.
3. You seem to be *really* unfamiliar with London. Only 20% of London car journeys are to do with work. Commut
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It would take negotiation such that the lamp post outside of person A's house (person A has a car) can be used by person B seven doors down. That's where it potentially fails.
And if it's the night you need to charge your car, and the lamp post is busy? You'd need to double your figure to make that part work too.
And I say this as someone in favour of EVs
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No, the lamp-posts are public chargers available on a first-come, first-served basis. Same as street parking -- and like street parking, no-one in London has an expectation of being able to park outside their house. You often have to park a few minutes walk away. So no negotiation required.
My calculations already included a 100% over-capacity margin. I said demand would be about 5% of households per night (actually, it would be lower as London average mileage won't be as high as 150 miles per week, and EV r
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No, the lamp-posts are public chargers available on a first-come, first-served basis. Same as street parking -- and like street parking, no-one in London has an expectation of being able to park outside their house.
The person who threatened me with physical harm when I parked outside their house in London must have been an illusion, then.
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"No-one" was hyperbolic on my part. But seriously, who the fuck does that in London? Where on earth were you?
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More London-ish than London. Can't see that happening in West Hampstead or even Kennington. But horrible nonetheless.
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When did it become clear EVs would take over light ground transportation?
When Tesla started outselling BMW and Mercedes in the luxury sedan market. There is a lot of demand for EVs and they have some pretty compelling advantages. Lower fuel costs, (potentially) greater reliability, fewer moving parts, diversity of energy sources, existing infrastructure, falling battery prices, superior torque characteristics, efficiency, etc. While there are some issues to work out, many of the biggest hurdles are already behind us.
I see some convincing use cases for EV (basically to get around a city) but prices have not come down enough for the mainstream to buy them 'just to get around a city'
So your argument is that because EVs haven't yet become chea
Bingo! (Score:3)
I got buzzword bingo everyone. Seriously was the article written by an AI fed only buzzwords?
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Probably, I found that mentioning of "small fusion reactors" interesting ...
Analysis (Score:2)
In the past fifteen years we have witnessed several pivotal points along the route towards clean energy and transport. In 2004, renewables were poised for explosive growth; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...> in 2008, the world's power system started to go digital ; in 2012, it became clear that EVs would take over light ground transportation https://www.businessinsider.co... .>
So out of his three main points one is irrelevant, one is misleading at best, and one is basing an awful lot on a very small s
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sorry about the links, why is that happening?
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Ah, no in fact the entire post got mungled up, probably becasue I used GE and LE brackets.
"In the past fifteen years we have witnessed several pivotal points along the route towards clean energy and transport. In 2004, renewables were poised for explosive growth; in 2008, the world's power system started to go digital; in 2012, it became clear that EVs would take over light ground transportation"
Point 1, in fact renewables have scarecely increased as a %age of total energy usage eg
https://en.wikipedia.org/w [wikipedia.org]
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Point 1, in fact renewables have scarecely increased as a %age of total energy usage eg
And what about the second derivative?
Second derivative (Score:2)
I'm sure that with your extensive experience in analysing real world data (it's my day job) you'd agree that extrapolating the second derivative from noisy data is a bit silly. As soon as the idiotic subsidies for regen disappear, so will the growth in regen installations, or at least their second derivative. Bear in mind in that graph I posted the %age of regen was actually falling, since it had the same slope as oil and coal.
I'm not putting any time into actually doing the numbers but if I get any interes
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electrification of air transport (Score:2)
Yeah good luck with that.
Blah blah blah. Wind, Solar, Batteries. (Score:4, Insightful)
Sorry, they still make up a tiny percentage of total renewable energy.
And the capacity to build the quantities we need for utility-grade applications would basically hijack the markets for an entire year.
You want to decarbonize NUCLEAR POWER. End of discussion. Stable baseline power. Zero carbon emissions.
Add in remaining utility-grade large hydro, geothermal and augment with small hydro to bring up baseline to today's PEAK demand.
You can offset peaks in demand with renewables then.
But the real gains have NOTHING to do with power generation.
40-something percent of all power consumption in this country is from BUILDINGS.
Build better insulated, more efficient buildings, and watch demand on the grid plummet.
Build for longevity and sustainability.
Retrofit less efficient buildings.
HVAC being offset with BTU batteries and careful timing of power use.
Then use any power excesses in the system to do things like desalinate water and carbon capture into hydrocarbon fuels which can be used to stay carbon-neutral or stored to be carbon positive.
Because if you think coating the planet in solar panels and wind turbines is going to fix everything, you're delusional.
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The problem at that point becomes transportation. Oh, and the environmental impact of a 10,000 square mile heat island. How well done do you want any birds in the area?
And, while it's a desert, the area you'd be putting this in ISN'T DEAD. So you're destroying desert ecology.
Additionally, 10,000 square miles of solar panels is an absolute FUCKTON of waste when the panels reach EOL.
And what? It all just goes in a landfill? Because, currently, there's no provisions for recycling solar panels.
And not ever
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And how much space does a single 1GW reactor and it's cooling tower take up?
And start subtracting size when moving to MSR reactors, since all the Rube Goldberg super-extra-mega-grossly-hyper-redundant cooling machinery (the thing that makes up the bulk of a reactor's size) isn't required.
To steadily generate the same ACTUAL amount of power (within a 1 year period) a 1GW reactor produces you would need between 1.9GW-2.8GW of capacity.
The land required for this would be between 260 and 360 square miles.
To ste
Except his premises are bullshit (Score:2)
"....several pivotal points along the route towards clean energy and transport. In 2004, renewables were poised for explosive growth; in 2008, the world's power system started to go digital; in 2012, it became clear that EVs would take over light ground transportation. "
No they didn't, mostly no, and absolutely no.
Ergo, no.
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Go back to 1988, where only nerds used computers. Fast-forward three decades later and almost everyone uses a pocket computer that's thousands of times better than what we had back then.
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Fast forward to 2016 where gas/fuel/distribution titans The Koch Bros. influenced sufficient elections to foist an anti-environment, anti-regulation, pro-coal, and largely anti-solar electric/wind/hydro electric regime into control of the US House, Senate, the POTUS, and the Supreme Court's open nominations.
Like it or not, in this year, there are billions of dollars fighting de-carbonization, to my dismay. Saving the planet is NOT on their agenda, rather, The Rapture is on their agenda.
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Bad example, the Koch brothers hate Trump
https://www.vanityfair.com/new... [vanityfair.com]
When they agreed with Trump on something Politico actually found it newsworthy and posted a story about it
https://www.politico.com/story... [politico.com]
Trump has a low opinion going back to at least the election
https://twitter.com/realdonald... [twitter.com]
Their strong dislike of Trump is still very current
http://www.breitbart.com/big-g... [breitbart.com]
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Mmmmm. Sure.
Follow the money and the campaign contributions.
Really. Do this. Don't listen to the left or the right, follow the money. It will lead you to my conclusion, as I have followed the money. Understand the foundations, the FEC law, and who contributed to what. Then you, too, will ignore the media and go for the facts.
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I made my claim and provided citations to support it. You made your claim, you provide the citations.
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You offered specious google tossings. I'll not do your homework for ya.
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Bad example, the Koch brothers hate Trump
Not enough to actually do anything against him that matters.
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2012 did not see EV outselling ICE at any point, even today. "Clean energy" is still a mere fraction of total power output, especially for long term 365/24/7 reliability.
No expect predicted that EVs would outsells ICE cars in 2012, but the fraction of cars which are electric has been steadily climbing. In 2017, more electric cars were sold than the previous year which sold more than the year before that, and that occurred even as overall car sales *went down* https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/01/2017-was-the-best-year-ever-for-electric-vehicle-sales-in-the-us/ [arstechnica.com]. It is likely going to be a long time until electric cars outsell internal combustion cars, but that's a distinct
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Norway has set 2025 as the cut-off date for ICE sales, although I expect there will be a few exemptions. India set 2030, various other countries including France and the UK are looking at 2040 which is a bit pessimistic.
Norway has put in a lot of infrastructure. India is going to have to work at it but 2030 is realistic.
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My next car is 400 hp v8. Why? Because I hate Gaia? No. Because if you live your while life like a monk you might as well just kill your self. We are people, human beings, not ants.
Life is meant to be lived.
And posting as AC fits nicely with you clearly being a coward, and ashamed of your choices. Anyone who posts a statement like this is a colossal ass that doesn't care about anyone but themselves. Many of us have sacrificed to help future generations enjoy what we had. Some day I hope you learn to care about someone other than yourself, and realize how awesome life can be when you put others first. I promise, it feels better than owning a fancy money-pit car.
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The issue is that cows fart methane.
Cow farts are another fake issue from the climate activists. The claim is that since something like 7% of our emitted carbon comes from cattle, that cows are a major contributor to greenhouse warming.
What they are leaving out in this analysis is that cows don't eat coal. The carbon they belch came from the air this year, and goes back into the air this year. So, no net contribution to warming.
"But...but - it's methane, not CO2!" A more powerful greenhouse gas, but also one that breaks down quickly in the en
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They contribute to warming.
But only with a fixed amount, call it a base line.
It is correct that it is a zero sum game ... but if we had only half as many cows, the baseline would only half as high.
In the long run it makes no difference how many cows we have, however the whole meat industry produces CO2 by burning fossile fuels. On top of that we have agriculture that we only do to feed cattle ...
So it is worth to look at that point, even if the impact is exaggerated.
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It's not the CO2, it's the methane which is 25 times as potent a greenhouse warming gas as CO2. Methane takes at least 30 years to break down in the atmosphere giving it plenty of time to warm the planet.
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The numbers I've seen (like in the wikipedia article on methane in the atmosphere) are more like 8-10 years on the average, rather than 30. A long time, but not that long.
Re: Oh, say can you see? (Score:3)
According to EPA
Methane (CH4) is estimated to have a GWP of 28â"36 over 100 years (Learn why EPA's U.S. Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks uses a different value.). CH4 emitted today lasts about a decade on average, which is much less time than CO2. But CH4 also absorbs much more energy than CO2. The net effect of the shorter lifetime and higher energy absorption is reflected in the GWP. The CH4 GWP also accounts for some indirect effects, such as the fact that CH4 is a precursor to ozone,
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So you are assuming that if people weren't in the planet, then there wouldn't be wild cattle roaming around uh? So basically you propose mass extinction of bovine and other cattle on a scale that dwarfs the bison slaughters in XIXth century USA, just because you think "global warming" is a problem?
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Re:Oh, say can you see? (Score:4, Informative)
Gasoline still has an order of magnitude more energy per unit weight than batteries.
Gasoline engines are an order of magnitude less efficient than battery powered cars.
I have an electric car and range is not a problem. My daily commute uses less than 20% of the capacity. Once or twice a year I need to drive beyond the range of the car, so I either recharge enroute (usually while eating lunch or dinner) or I drive a different car.
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"Gasoline engines are an order of magnitude less efficient than battery powered cars." I don't think so, although I admit I could be wrong. In terms of thermodynamic efficiency, an ICE running a car is 25-50% efficient (wikipedia article on engine efficiency). In order to be an order of magnitude less efficient than battery-powered cars, the latter would have to be 250-500% efficient, an obvious thermodynamic impossibility. When you take into account losses in electrical generation, transmission (unless
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If there is a sufficient market for people to pull things with rented vehicles if EVs become more common, you'll be able to rent them. Although you may find that it's all self-driving by the time EVs have that level of market penetration.
It's a self eating watermelon. People won't buy EVs unless they are economically superior to ICE for the function they need it to perform. Companies won't make EVs with decent towing capacity unless people are going to buy them.
Fun fact; people who are against supply side economics, really need supply side economics to get EVs to become a thing. Karma's a bitch.
Economics (Score:2)
People won't buy EVs unless they are economically superior to ICE for the function they need it to perform. Companies won't make EVs with decent towing capacity unless people are going to buy them.
A Tesla Model X can tow the same 5000 lbs my current gas powered pickup can tow. It is trivial to build an EV with substantial towing capacity. You are right that there is a chicken and egg problem with EVs but there is clear evidence that the popularity of EVs is growing. I think in the long term (40+ years out) EVs will come to dominate the car market with hybrids and gas powered vehicles becoming specialty vehicles. But there are a lot of infrastructure and technical issues to work out before that ha
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If there is a sufficient market for people to pull things with rented vehicles if EVs become more common, you'll be able to rent them. Although you may find that it's all self-driving by the time EVs have that level of market penetration.
It's a self eating watermelon. People won't buy EVs unless they are economically superior to ICE for the function they need it to perform. Companies won't make EVs with decent towing capacity unless people are going to buy them.
Fun fact; people who are against supply side economics, really need supply side economics to get EVs to become a thing. Karma's a bitch.
Getting the self-eating watermelon rolling in any market is difficult, but it tends to be a feedback, not purely supply or demand side.
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The car only needs to go as far as you want to drive each day. For most people most of the time that's less than 50 miles. For the other times, there are rapid chargers. This is a non-issue.
Re: Oh, say can you see? (Score:2)
I feel sorry for you having to drive 900 miles a day. Have you considered taking an airplane? They're fast.
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You could look at Australia which has wind, solar and a big battery stabilizing the grid and supplying backup power for South Australia. So far, the battery has surpassed expectations by preventing power outages and is even proving to be a money maker.
https://futurism.com/teslas-au... [futurism.com]
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-... [bbc.com]
Renewables plus battery storage are more reliable and less expensive than fossil fuels.
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Fixed that for you, eh?
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Thank you, eh? Looks like someone actually read my post to the end before responding.
history (Score:2)
By the way, when human dieoff's hit 50-90% then decarbonization can occur as nations collapse and return to pre-industrial carbon usage. Could that actually happen. A growing body of research suggests that, with a healthy dose of scienctific controvery, that the century of the little ice age was caused by deaths in the highly populated americas.
https://www.scientificamerican... [scientificamerican.com]
http://www.slate.com/blogs/fut... [slate.com]
https://phys.org/news/2011-10-... [phys.org]
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Your children will grow up speaking canadian.
I'll kill myself then my family before I let that happen! ;)
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Your children will grow up speaking canadian.
I'll kill myself then my family before I let that happen! ;)
Well, at least you're planning on doing it in the right order. So many people don't.
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You think you're describing renewables, but you're actually describing petrochemicals. And nuclear.
Oh dear (Score:2)
No, you are out by a factor of about 5, sorry. Here's a comparison I did recently
Best battery around at the moment is probably Tesla. Their 85 kWh battery weighs 540 kg. A typical car has a 72 litre tank, so we could replace that with a 9 kWh battery. 9 kWh is of course 33 MJ. 72 litres of fuel is about 2500 MJ. The efficiency of whatever ancient technology they use on the gas car is perhaps 15% or a little better. So on a /like for like/ basis the BEV has 9% of the energy available at the wheel compared wi
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There are two practical vehicles for sale in North America with decent range. One of them is the Tesla 3, which is in backorder hell. The other is the Chevy Bolt, which actually seems to be a decent vehicle. It's about $35,000 US, or $50,000 CDN. The Tesla 3 is about the same price.
That's at least double the price of a normal passenger car for something with a fraction the utility.
I think one would make a great commuting vehicle, but they aren't about to take over the market.
Let's re-evaluate in 2 or 3 year
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And not available in North America.
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