Desktop PC Shipments Dip Below 100m/Year

Desktop PC shipments dipped below 100 million in 2017 and there's worse to come across the personal computing device market according to analyst firm IDC. From a report: The company on Wednesday published a summary of its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker for 2017's final quarter in which it totted up shipments for the year across all forms of PC and slate-style tablets. The headline figure was a 2.7 per cent year-over-year decline. The firm said "commercial PC renewal momentum remained as the main catalyst in a market that was also tempered by lackluster demand for legacy form factor devices and component shortages." There was a little good news in 2017 with growth in notebook sales, as they grew more strongly than in any year since 2012, but the overall picture was poor.

Speculation:

[thegreatbob]

Perhaps demand will recover when the VR software/hardware makes it to the far side of the uncanny valley? Or does somebody have a better term to encompass all of the latent issues with existing VR systems? I feel like it's one of the few consumer-oriented concepts that might actually require beefy, customizable hardware for people who aren't natively tinkerers/hobbyists/hardcore gamers. Any other systems/concepts out there that might be a decent driver of sales in the future?

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[110010001000]

VR will never work due to the disconnect between what the eye sees and what the inner ear senses. Unless that problem is solved people will experience motion sickness. It is physiology. However, AR is a real thing.

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[Junta]

That is not a problem for everyone and is even unheard of for certain sorts of experiences (experiences with 0 in-game movement that isn't 1:1 don't make people sick, games with cockpits don't make many people sick, a free-movement fps can make a lot of people sick, but there are a lot of people not in that boat. For example there has not been a VR experience *yet* that perturbed me in the least.

However, current tech is limited and flawed (resolution, optics, weight). It does demand a fair amount of space

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[110010001000]

Of course. There is always that "one guy" on Slashdot who is never motion sick. I meant for the vast majority of people. You, of course, are special.

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[Junta]

I don't think it's that special. It's just that when someone does get sick, it's pretty quick and very pronounced. I don't think I've ever seen a 'percentage' study, mostly anecdotes. As such anecdotes where people feel like they are going to throw up are for more potent than anecdotes where nothing happened.

My wife gets sick just seeing content on the tv that spins around and such, but she can do VR without issue... so long as movement is 1:1.

Of course she doesn't really *care* to, but her disinterest i

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[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

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[Kjella]

I've tried it at a friend's house and I think the biggest problem is what you'd do as a player. I mean realistically you're trapped in a very small box so it's either some variation of DDR where you do things on the spot which gets tiresome really fast or it's a simulator where you're in the driver/pilot's seat. And for the latter curved wide screens would get me most of the way there. I mean the cool thing is the motion tracking but it's mostly limited to duck and cover and peeking around corners. You can'

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[110010001000]

Actually those companies have largely ditched VR and are switching to AR. There is a reason VR never caught on. Plugging into the brain is just scifi at this point.

Why would that increase PC demand...

[SuperKendall]

Perhaps demand will recover when the VR software/hardware makes it to the far side of the uncanny valley?

But why would that be PC demand?

The by far largest VR platform today is PSVR, because you don't have to worry about all of the PC crap to get the system to work.

Sony continues to push and evolve VR in the home at a good clip. As hardware improves I don't see that changing a lot, the primary VR systems will either be mobile or console based.

By the way I don't know what "uncanny valley" you are thinking o

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[thegreatbob]

Meant to reply sooner, but the /. was borked (all the 503s)... for lack of a better term, I chose 'uncanny valley' to be an analog between realism in robots and realism/immersion in VR. For myself, I feel like we're starting the uphill climb on the far side of the valley. If someone has a better term (or explanation for a lack thereof), I'm open.

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[SuperKendall]

I agree we've only just started the uphill climb but I feel like we are across that valley. On the Vive especially there were a number of experiences (like a virtual bow and arrow that felt more real than odd). Even on the PSVR with it's poorer tracking device a few of the things I tried felt really immersive and tracked well...

To me I think the key to real immersion in VR is a combination of head and hand tracking. The head tracking is now great almost across the board on all the "real" VR headsets. Yo

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[imgod2u]

Well, for me, the barrier to entry into VR is requiring me to hook it up to a PC box.

Having a giant collection of fans inside a loud, power-hungry box is not something I want in my living room.

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[Diakoneo]

Interesting that you immediately tied VR to upcoming PC sales, as that's my gating factor right now. The rig I have is 'good enough' to handle the games I play now. But I'm thinking about going to VR next. I did a little checking, and it would cost a lot more to upgrade my current rig to be beefy enough to handle VR than it would be to just buy a rig designed to handle VR.

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[MrL0G1C]

In my anecdotal experience, older people who were encouraged to use PCs by their children but typically let them get dusty much prefer tablets and smart-phones and are much less technophobic about smaller gadgets.

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[Junta]

This phenomenon is to be expected, sadly, as the mass market appeal diminishes.

For a time, high end computer and what the general market needed overlapped very nicely, and the high volumes made high end computing very affordable.

Now the general market is served by a pretty distinct set of configurations, and the high end of the market goes back up.

The role of the desktop can be done by other items

[ctilsie242]

The desktop's role isn't going anywhere. However, in a lot of companies, the desktop computer is being replaced by laptops and docks, and at home, a lot of people find that a laptop serves their needs well enough that they don't need a desktop PC either.

I am not surprised by this in the least. Desktop PCs will still always be around, but the role is easily handled by laptops and tablets like the Microsoft Surface and the Dell 2-in-1s, especially with breakout boxes for GPUs, so the heavy-lifting for gamin

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[magzteel]

The desktop's role isn't going anywhere. However, in a lot of companies, the desktop computer is being replaced by laptops and docks, and at home, a lot of people find that a laptop serves their needs well enough that they don't need a desktop PC either.

I am not surprised by this in the least. Desktop PCs will still always be around, but the role is easily handled by laptops and tablets like the Microsoft Surface and the Dell 2-in-1s, especially with breakout boxes for GPUs, so the heavy-lifting for gaming can stay in a separate box at home.

For work I need a lot of desktop. A laptop is painful, and a tablet is impossible.
I suppose it would be cool to have a high-end tablet that can hook to a dock with monitors, keyboard, and mouse but it sounds expensive.

Stop with the spin.

[Lirodon]

Spin it like this: Home building is killing the PC industry. And it should be that way.

100 meters per year

[jfdavis668]

I read the title as "Desktop PC Shipments Dip Below 100 meters/ Year." I guess they weren't getting too deep.

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[tomhath]

This is slashdot. Units should be furlongs/fortnight.

What about thin clients and VM's?

[magzteel]

My current and previous company have been replacing all physical Windows desktops with thin clients and VM's. This report doesn't address that trend.

So it may be that physical desktop sales are down in part because the actual number of PC's (including VM's) in use is up.

not news for nerds

[swell]

And why do nerds care about desktop computer sales? Isn't that a matter for Wall Street? And it isn't news any way to people not living in caves. Is there anyone alive who doesn't know that train has left the station? Desktop computers have their place and that won't change any time soon. Laptops also have their place, very well established, and again there won't be any remarkable change in sales figures. The smartphone industry is also matured to a point where it is very predictable. So, please, let's not

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[Sperbels]

Explain. Traditionally new versions of Windows actually drive PC sales because each new version is slower than the last.

Maybe Because There's No Need For New Ones?

[Tempest_2084]

I'm still using the same Core i7 desktop I built 10 years ago as my main computer and it works just fine. I don't game on my PC, just web surfing, email, and streaming. Other than upgrading the RAM from 6GB to 12GB and putting in a new (well old, but newer than what I was using (GTX 260 to Radeon 7770)) graphics card that I was given for free a few years back I haven't done anything with it. I remember when you had to upgrade your computer ever 3-4 years just to run all the latest programs (mostly games,