Expect Substantial Slowdown In Smartphone Shipment: IDC (slashgear.com) 39
Brittany A. Roston, writing for Slashgear: In 2014, smartphone shipments grew a massive 27.8-percent, and the next year, 2015, smartphone shipments grew by 10.5-percent. The International Data Corporation (IDC) expects that we'll see a substantial slowdown in shipments this year, with 2016 (possibly) ending up at around only 3.1-percent. According to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, this year will probably see about 1.48 billion smartphone shipments, a number that is estimated to climb to 1.84 billion by 2020.According to IDC, Android will see a YoY (year-on-year) growth of 6.2%, whereas Apple's iOS will drop by 2% this year. Also this year, the average selling price of an Android handset will be $218, which IDC expects to fall below $200 in 2019.
Same as computers. (Score:4, Interesting)
The price will go down. This should not be shocking to anyone. Like PCs the margins will become razor thin and everyone will have one. I wonder if you will see gaming phones as a niche market?
The money will be in media, services, and apps which is where Apple and Google will make money in the future. AKA iTunes store and Google Play.
Where would a gaming phone's buttons be placed? (Score:2)
I wonder if you will see gaming phones as a niche market?
I wonder what can be extrapolated from the Xperia Play phone's underwhelming sales toward answering that. I know companies don't make QWERTY sliders anymore. Would a "gaming phone" have a directional pad and action buttons on its main face like a PlayStation Vita or JXD's tablets?
Re: (Score:2)
I think that it would be an add on that uses the USB port or bluetooth.
Re: (Score:1)
I'm not a millennial, but certain types of apps that don't ship with the phone, honestly should be free.
I mean, unless it's some serious extra functionality, who the hell is going to pay for a stopwatch/timer app? Or a calendar reminder? (Again, assuming they don't ship with the phone to begin with.)
There is money to be made in micro-payment/freemium apps and games, and that seems to be, if not a growing market, at least a stable one.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
Well, yeah. That's pretty much a given. I mean, a stopwatch app shouldn't need access to my location data and whatnot, but it does. I use stopwatch as an example, because that's about the only app besides a timecard app that I've installed on my phone. I have thus far, resisted putting any games on my phone.
Free as in speech (Score:3)
One possibility is to switch to free apps that are actually free software [gnu.org]. One store specializing in such apps is F-Droid [f-droid.org].
Less growth (Score:5, Insightful)
A slowdown in shipments would mean negative growth and fewer phones being sold.
The numbers describe smaller positive growth. So they are predicting that more phones will be sold.
There's a brain disease that lays dormant until journalists start writing headlines, when it kicks in a compels them to lie.
Re: (Score:2, Funny)
Headlies!
Re: (Score:2)
Headlies!
The internet is yours today. Well played sir!
Re: (Score:2)
"its Hedley"
"what the hell are you worried about, this is 1874, you can sue HER!"
(oblig)
Re: (Score:2)
Yes, but the second derivative of phones bought with respect to time is an important factor. In fact to a company that is adapted to an accelerating market with a relative dearth of producers, a growing but decelerating market with more and more low-price producers entering feels exactly like a contracting market.
Either way it's a matter of how many units you produce the market will take at any given price. Even though more units may be purchased globally, when you are forced to drop prices to maintain yo
Re: Less growth (Score:2)
So, in other words the pointless feature-creep that plagued dumb-phones before the iPhone came along?
Re: Less growth (Score:2)
the market, to include the developing world, is getting saturated.
Re: (Score:2)
the market, to include the developing world, is getting saturated.
The market will ultimately be determined by the rate at which people break screens plus the rate at which non replaceable batteries degrade.
"slowdown" (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
"Slowdown". I do not think that word means what you think it means.
Depends whether they are referring to the first derivative (rate of phone shipments), which is still positive, or the second derivative (change in rate of phone shipments), which is sharply negative.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3)
The context is: "substantial slowdown in shipments". I don't see how that can possibly mean the second derivative.
TFA says "IDC expects ‘substantial slowdown’ in phone shipment growth this year"
TFS says "Expect Substantial Slowdown In Smartphone Shipment: IDC"
TFS author didn't study calculus.
Re: (Score:2)
Technically, yes the original subject isn't correct when talking about a slowdown in smartphone shipment globally. However, the gist of the subject is correct:
There is an expected substantial slowdown in growth in the past few years, from 27% to 10% to a projected 3%.
The projected 3% is almost half of the 6% projection from just 3 months ago.
Some national markets, like Japan and Canada are expected to contract by over 6%.
iPhone shipments are expected to contract this year.
The important point is that overal
Upgrades mean less (Score:2)
As the market matures there is less difference between phone versions. The cost/hassle of upgrading every year or two is not worth the benefit.
Apple moving to a three year major release cycle only confirms this trend. Redesigns cost big money so like cars they want to get more from their engineering spend.
Re: Upgrades mean less (Score:2)
The massive shift to outright and installment sales also means consumers are seeing the "true cost" of their devices, and consequently not seeing the value proposition of these "incremental" updates.
IDC? (Score:1)
"The International Data Corporation (IDC)"
Who the fuck are these guys? And why do they think they can comment on mobile phone technology and/or economics?
Re: (Score:1)
Oh, I thought the IDC stood for I Don't Care. It makes sense that way: "Expect substantial slowdown in smartphone shipment [sic]: I don't care!"
Re: (Score:2)
IDC = Insulation Displacement Connection/Connector.
It's because most smartphones SUCK. (Score:2, Troll)
There is one Android phone I am willing to buy. the NEXUS from google directly. All the others are screwed up by the carriers and the makers adding in crap that makes the phone a steaming pile of crap.
So the industry deserves the sales slump. They made the phones crap by shoveling in crapware.
Re: (Score:2)
After being on nexuses since the G1, I switched to an iPhone recently just to see what life is like on the other side. It's not much different. But all carrier bloated Androids still suck.
Re: (Score:2)
Motorola, while owned by Google, released a few decent phones that were basically stock Andriod (MotoX, MotoG, MotoE). Also released updates for my MotoG in a timely manner. So far Lenovo hasn't screwed up the phones, no telling whether or not they will continue to release Android updates.
Come on IDC, make up your mind! (Score:2)