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Power Earth

US Wind Power Is Expected To Double In the Next 5 Years 262

merbs writes: The U.S. Department of Energy anticipates that the amount of electricity generated by wind power to more than double over the next five years. Right now, wind provides the nation with about 4.5 percent of its power. But an in-depth DOE report (PDF) released yesterday forecasts that number will rise to 10 percent by 2020—then 20 percent by 2030, and 35 percent by 2050.
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US Wind Power Is Expected To Double In the Next 5 Years

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  • Wind is kicking solar's ass. And there is good reason.
    • Wind is the playground bully. Bigger than everyone, towering above all the other kids. It' a big blowhard, mouthing off at the slightest provocation. Flailing it's arms around and thumping anyone who gets in it's way. No one likes a bully.
    • Wind is popular, because it can be implemented using fairly small plot of land, which makes it ideal for municipal power generation. Solar requires more surface area, and means the individuals will need to agree to putting the devices on their property.

      So in a democratic settings. 50+% of the voters vote for a wind turbine for their community, means 100% of the population get Wind energy.

      While for solar where the individuals choose, that 50+% May have solar while the 50-% will not, so that is less overall

      • Could you not place solar panels underneath the windmills?
        There are a few small advantages to solar panels though, in that they can be placed on roofs of buildings, hence not taking up any additional space.

        • And solar panels are completely silent.

        • We should just bolt solar panels to the blades of the windmill.
          And then bolt copies of that windmill to the tips of an even bigger windmill that's ALSO covered in solar panels.
          On top of a hydro dam!
          With an underground fission reactor that uses the reservoir lake as a cooling loop!
          With natural gas backup generators!
          AND LIT BY COAL FIRED LAMPS DEAR GOD I THINK I JUST SOLVED THE WORLD'S ENERGY CRISIS

          I... didn't sleep one minute last night. :(

        • by tsa ( 15680 )

          You can place them on the wings of the windmill.

      • by Rei ( 128717 )

        You've got it backwards. Wind is highly cost ineffective unless done very large. Sub-100kW turbines just don't get you the same sort of buy in your power as the >500kW turbines, and the little rooftop turbines are ridiculously expensive per kWh. By contrast, solar - at least photovoltaic - works just fine at the small scale, especially when the land area for it is "free" (aka, someone wants to add cells to their roof).

      • "While for solar where the individuals choose, that 50+% May have solar while the 50-% will not, so that is less overall green power usage" with more than enough solar on the 50% can then feed the other 50%, just needs the infrastructure in place to share
    • by mdsolar ( 1045926 ) on Friday March 13, 2015 @09:20AM (#49249623) Homepage Journal
      I recently noticed an interesting convergence. The long term growth of both solar and wind capacity is exponential. The growth rate for solar is higher than for wind power but wind power is currently ahead in capacity. If we take a capacity factor of 20% for solar and 30% for wind, how long does it take to cover the roughly 20 TW of world energy demand?

      For solar, taking 200 MW of capacity in 1995 and 100,000 MW in 2012 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G... [wikipedia.org] we get to 100,000,000 MW in 39 years from 1995 since (log(100 TW)-log(200 MW))/(log(100,000 MW)-log(200 MW))/17 years)=39 years. So 2034 is when we may expect solar PV to cover all energy demand.

      For wind, taking 7,600 MW of capacity in 1995 and 369,553 MW in 2014 http://www.gwec.net/wp-content... [gwec.net] we get to 60,000,000 MW in 39 years from 1997 since (log(60 TW)-log(7,600 MW))/(log(369,533 MW)-log(7.500 MW))/17 years = 39 years. So, 2036 is where we may expect wind power to cover all energy demand.

      So, within just a couple years of each other, either technology can be projected to grow to cover all current demand.

      A driver for ongoing exponential growth for PV is the still falling cost of manufacture. It is expected that panels will cost $0.36/W to produce in 2017. http://www.greentechmedia.com/... [greentechmedia.com]

      This seems to be a faster rate than pledges coming in for Paris are anticipating so we might have some confidence that those pledges are going to be met.
      • That's OK. Using the same logic, by 2038 the Dow Jones Industrial average should be about 29490859 and the world economy will have increased by a factor of four.

        Only idiots, economists and insects use exponential growth over long periods of time.

      • These rates might not hold. There was a time I was going at some 8784 wives/year rate. The very next day it dropped to a mere 366 wives/year. Now it has dwindled to 0.038461538 wives/year. What I am driving at is, these rates might not hold. http://xkcd.com/605/ [xkcd.com]
    • People like to play around with rates of capacity installation but that is just a PR game. What really matters is results and kilowatt-hours generated. Wind generates a much greater amount of power each year than solar, despite similar investments over the last decade. Its not even close.
  • My bean consumption is up 32% over last year.

  • 4.5 percent already? I found this number astonishing, I would have guessed less than one percent. Shows what I know. It seems wind power has a bit of a wind problem, or I have a head in the sand problem. 50/50
  • With climate change, there is more energy in the atmosphere - higher wind speeds.

    We won't be able to harness all of this increase of course, generally wind turbines can't handle tornadoes for example.

    I personally think that vertical wind turbines (that look like an egg beater sticking up, rather than a large propeller ) are the way to go.

    • by itzly ( 3699663 )

      I personally think that vertical wind turbines (that look like an egg beater sticking up, rather than a large propeller ) are the way to go.

      People who design wind turbines disagree with you. Now what ?

    • I personally think that vertical wind turbines (that look like an egg beater sticking up, rather than a large propeller ) are the way to go.

      Like most things, there are reasons they're better and reasons they're worse.

      You can look up the differences between VAWT and HAWT (google it), but basically, VAWT that you're talking about is likely a good idea for personal turbines, but isn't the best for large wind farms. That said, some have discussed using VAWT close to the ground in large HAWT wind farms so they can harvest both ground level wind and wind aloft.

  • After all, the US has elections coming up. All that hot air can be harnessed for energy even if it will heat the planet by a few more fractions of a degree.
  • 2016 elections. Need I say more?

  • Natural gas is so cheap and so abundant in the US that wind power makes zero financial sense as a competitor. If wind actually does double, it will be a huge misallocation of resources.

    And it won't really help the environment. The natural gas will just be burnt off or vented to the atmosphere instead of being captured to produce electricity.

  • Not ONE post from someone complaining that wind can't possibly work, and the only possible solution is to build [insert nuclear power unicorn faerie dust machine here].

    Wow, the worm has indeed turned.

  • Surely this is due to congresses new open door policy!
  • Has there been a wind sustainability study for future use with the climate changing? I mean it's been stated that there will be rain in places where there is no rain now. And rainy places will have drought in the future. So where are the wind models at for the future? I'm sure there are graphs and pretty pictures for us simpletons. And with these studies, by harvesting the wind (slowing it down, redirecting, etc) how does will that affect the ecosystem at large?

    Now I'm being a bit facetious, but it should b

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts." -- Bertrand Russell

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