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Power The Almighty Buck

Utilities Face Billions In Losses From Distributed Renewables 280

Lucas123 writes: Over the next 10 years, adoption of distributed power in the form of renewables such as solar power has the potential to reduce revenues to grid utilities by as much as $48 billion in the U.S. and by $75 billion in Europe, according to a new study. The study, by Accenture, revealed that utility executives are more nervous (PDF) about the impact of distributed — or locally generated renewable power — than ever before. 61% of those surveyed this year indicated they expect significant or moderate revenue reductions compared to only 43% last year. The cost of rooftop solar-powered electricity will be on par with prices for common coal or oil-powered generation in two years, and the technology to produce it will only get cheaper, according to a recent report from Deutsche Bank. New technologies, such as more efficient solar cells, are also threatening to increase efficiencies and drive adoption.
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Utilities Face Billions In Losses From Distributed Renewables

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  • The study... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by hcs_$reboot ( 1536101 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @07:12PM (#48560311)

    ...by Accenture

    Stopped there.

    • by golodh ( 893453 )
      @ hcs_$reboot

      ...by Accenture

      Stopped there.

      Any specific reason for that?

  • by BarbaraHudson ( 3785311 ) <barbara.jane.hud ... minus physicist> on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @07:12PM (#48560315) Journal

    reduce revenues to grid utilities

    And there are costs associated with generating those revenues (pun intended). Will it tip the utilities into loss? Certainly not to the extent the summary implies.

    • Will it tip the utilities into loss? Certainly not to the extent the summary implies.

      I would suggest that depends entirely on how many people install solar panels.

      • by fluffy99 ( 870997 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @07:35PM (#48560501)

        The graphs in the study are not scaled properly and are misleading. The middle US case, which even has some dubious assumptions, only represents a 5% drop in total demand. It doesn't include important things such as costs to increase capacity if demand actually continues to rise. Most predictions show a continued overall energy demand far greater than predicted to be generated by wind or solar. Status quo of a non-increasing demand is actually good for their profits as they just need to maintain what they have. Solar power which produces during the peak energy hours helps them as well since the peak surges are covered using gas turbines which are very expensive to run (hence the reason for tiered pricing based on time of usage)

      • If people install solar panels without the batteries they will use the panels during the day and the grid at night. The utilities will have the full cost of infrastructure and generators but without the revenue from all that daytime use.
    • by jythie ( 914043 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @07:17PM (#48560367)
      Keep in mind that while they might reduce their costs in terms of fuel, the infrastructure they are responsible for maintaining will keep growing. When this topic comes up people often forget about that rather massive recurring cost and most consumers just sorta take it for granted that someone will fix/upgrade things.
      • That's why most utility bills have a "minimum charge for being connected to the grid", and then a consumption component.
        • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

          That's why most utility bills have a "minimum charge for being connected to the grid", and then a consumption component.

          Three problems:
          1. The connection charge and consumption charges are do not always reflect the actual costs.
          2. Another big cost is base load generating capacity. Base load is priced assuming it will run 24/7. But if solar can supply 100% of power on a sunny day, then the base load generator will be sitting idle.
          3. Another big cost is dealing with intermittent supplies from renewables. If solar is providing much of the load during peak hours (mid-afternoon), and suddenly some clouds roll in, the power c

          • by K. S. Kyosuke ( 729550 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @08:14PM (#48560793)

            2. Another big cost is base load generating capacity. Base load is priced assuming it will run 24/7. But if solar can supply 100% of power on a sunny day, then the base load generator will be sitting idle.

            Assuming there will be many base load generators at that point in time... Much has been made of the fact the Germans started building new coal plants like crazy, but what gets ignored by conservatives (in the general meaning of the word) is that these are "flex-load" plants, with the old base-load coal plants are being closed down.

          • 3, assumes there is no storage capability at the renewable end, new storage technologies are comming online every day, largely driven by the EV industry. If the solar system could store 24 hours worth of energy, then that problem goes away. True it will drive up costs and that may change the break even point, but storage costs are on the same downward trajectory as the renewable generation costs.
            • by jklovanc ( 1603149 ) on Wednesday December 10, 2014 @01:32AM (#48562225)

              Twenty four hours may not be enough. During a big storm solar will be degraded for much longer than that. Also at higher latitudes winter solar output can be as little as 1-% of summer output. One can either massively over produce in summer or rely on grid power in the winter. If one is relying on winter grid power then the equipment generating that power will only be used a fraction of the year.

              but storage costs are on the same downward trajectory as the renewable generation costs.

              The problem with local storage is that it is mainly batteries. Batteries are not environmentally friendly.

        • by Dahamma ( 304068 )

          Actually, *many* utilities currently have net metering without significant minimum charges (like $5), usually decided by state utility commissions. Honestly who knows right now how well that covers their overhead. I'm sure utility companies claim is doesn't and customers claim it does.

          But it's clear that charge is only going to go up as reliable non-renewable power gets more expensive to produce. Hopefully it's offset by the reduced hourly rates due to increased renewable use...

    • by rahvin112 ( 446269 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @07:34PM (#48560483)

      Utilities are regulated monopolies when selling to residential consumers. They are forced to sell at fixed power rates that don't vary with demand. Business power though is mostly unregulated. Companies pay for power at different rates every hour. Night time is very cheap but daytime power can be very expensive for a company. Utilities make the bulk of their profit on business power. Solar is going to be pushing power into the grid at peak amounts when peak commercial use is on. This is going to drive down peak power pricing dramatically and may actually flip it to nighttime. So rather than charging a business .30 kwh from 2-5pm with their 10% margin on top is going to get reduced significantly and could even go negative which will wipe out commercial profits almost entirely.

      That's what they fear more than anything. If they end up as a company that only makes money on the grid maintenance and not power they won't be worth 10% of what they are today.

      • If they end up as a company that only makes money on the grid maintenance and not power they won't be worth 10% of what they are today.

        Small government, small utilities? ;-) I actually think that they almost wouldn't deserve to be paid for the maintenance of the current grid, but nothing prevents them from building long-range HVDC conduits that are going to come in very, very handy one day.

      • by amiga3D ( 567632 )

        I've noticed a lot of companies are starting to generate their own power. The local Frito-Lay operation burns their used oil to generate power for their plant.

      • by jonwil ( 467024 )

        Here in Australia more power companies are forcing residential customers (especially those with grid-tie solar connections) onto "time of use" metering where you pay more at times when demand is higher.

    • by Dahamma ( 304068 )

      Will it tip the utilities into loss? Certainly not to the extent the summary implies.

      I don't see how you can possibly be "certain" about it based on the tiny amount of information and unknown future of the industry. Not saying it *has to*, but when you have a HUGE amount of capital tied up in many, many, billions of dollars of power plants that could either become idle or highly underused, it can get pretty hard to turn a profit.

      Not that I really care about the profit of a power company for it's own sake - but the problem is renewables just aren't going to meet 100% of the needs any time s

  • The cost of rooftop solar-powered electricity will be on par with prices for common coal or oil-powered generation in two years

    That will be a beautiful day.

    • The cost of rooftop solar-powered electricity will be on par with prices for common coal or oil-powered generation in two years

      This is only true if you live in an area that current has ridiculously high electricity rates. Places like California and Long Island with rates hitting as high as 25-cent/kwh. It's certainly not true for places like where I live that are running 6.5-cents/kwh. Ironically the high rate places are so high because demand has increased and the utilities are having to recoup the cost of increasing capacity or buying outside power by raising their rates. Decreased daytime demand will probably _lower_ the ra

      • "It's certainly not true for places like where I live that are running 6.5-cents/kwh."

        Does that include all distribution fees and taxes? Because if it doesn't then your parity rate is likely closer to 10 to 15 cents, which is about the current going rate for large scale PV. Residential it's higher until you remove the price of a roof job. Still not parity, but not far.

        • "It's certainly not true for places like where I live that are running 6.5-cents/kwh."

          Does that include all distribution fees and taxes? Because if it doesn't then your parity rate is likely closer to 10 to 15 cents, which is about the current going rate for large scale PV. Residential it's higher until you remove the price of a roof job. Still not parity, but not far.

          Yeah, if you roll in the service delivery fee I'm at 7.9-cents/kwh.

          I have trouble believing a estimate of 15 cents/kwh as the going rate for large scale PV. The lowest estimate I could come up with for lifetime cost per kwh on personal solar setups was 22-cents/kwh. I'm going by the calculations at http://www.nmsea.org/Curriculu... [nmsea.org] and using a much lower panel cost of $2.50/watt (versus the 2013 cost numbers they have) and assuming similar costs for the install labor, batteries, etc. Those calculations

    • "Cost" is not the same thing as "Price". We should bear this in mind any time the government is involved - power, oil, health care, internet...

    • Does this include the cost of the base load plants that still need to exist in case there is a storm and the solar panels do not work as well? Does this take into account the seasonal variation in electricity production? For example, Germany produces ten times as much solar energy in June as it does in January. Therefore to produce one unit of electricity in January costs ten times as much as in June.

  • Seems to be a lot of very similar articles at the moment.

    If you would like to know how this thread will turn just go here - http://hardware.slashdot.org/s... [slashdot.org]

    • Wall street is running a LOT of articles on it right now because it's a tremendous change in the status quo that will affect investors pretty massively. The Motley Fool runs a couple articles a week on all the changes. And yes there are that many changes and developments going on.

  • The cost of rooftop solar-powered electricity will be on par with prices for common coal or oil-powered generation in two years, and the technology to produce it will only get cheaper...

    ...as production continues to be in low cost, high productivity countries like China and India which can export to the US unfettered.

  • by DerekLyons ( 302214 ) <fairwater.gmail@com> on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @07:39PM (#48560535) Homepage

    They have good reason to be nervous... They'll still be on the hook to provide full power when solar is producing less than peak capability or isn't producing at all, but there's little chance they'll be allowed to significantly raise their rates. This works out to being required to maintain full generating and transmission capacity with sharply reduced revenue.
     
    Not to mention that very few people installing subsidized and/or cheap solar panels will spend the money to install unsubsidized and expensive battery capacity. That's long been a deep flaw in the thinking of solar power supporters - that they can have their cake and eat it too, the unspoken assumption that the utilities will always be there and will always have the capacity to make up any lack. You get what you pay for folks, TANSTAAFL.

    • by fermion ( 181285 )
      it is an interesting theory, but misses a couple facts. First, the owners of the grid are protected. For instance, in disasters in the recent past the repair costs for the grid have been passed directly to rate payers even though the gird operators should have reserved cash to pay for those repairs. It is like the owner of corner grocery charging everyone a dollar extra because he was robbed the previous evening. Likewise, many people buy electricity through resellers. The producers mostly know just sell
      • by LordLucless ( 582312 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @09:17PM (#48561177)

        It is like the owner of corner grocery charging everyone a dollar extra because he was robbed the previous evening.

        Pretty sure grocery stores do pay for repairs/stock loss/insurance through increasing the price of their goods. How else would they do it?

      • What planet are you from? No utility I'm aware of gives away power for free. Not to mention you completely ignored the required to cover periods when solar is providing sufficient power during the day. (Etc... etc...) You have no fucking clue what you're talking about.

      • by khallow ( 566160 )

        With a bunch of residential solar panels feeding electricity back into the grid during the day when people are not home, the providers can afford to supply electricity at night when they were giving it away for free before.

        Who's paying to store this power for supply at night? And without an increase in demand (say from a hoard of electric cars recharging), you just made the oversupply problem even worse.

    • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

      Tesla: 85KWh battery.

      If a car can have a 85KWh battery then why can't a house have a 10KWh battery? The price of batteries is set to plummet due to mass scale production of electric cars which need the batteries and the billions going into battery R&D.

      Most of the cost of Solar PV is in the installation and bureaucracy now.

      • If a car can have a 85KWh battery then why can't a house have a 10KWh battery?

        I never said they couldn't - I said they'd be expensive. (And 10KWh isn't very much.)

        The price of batteries is set to plummet due to mass scale production of electric cars which need the batteries

        Which means that if you add additional demand for batteries for houses... the prices are going to go right back up. (Supply and demand, simple economics.) And even "plummeted" prices are still very expensive - into five figure

  • Uh, no. (Score:3, Informative)

    by goodmanj ( 234846 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @07:42PM (#48560561)

    Guys, "lost revenue" is not the same as "loss". If I buy widgets for 99 cents and sell them for a buck, and my customers start buying fewer widgets, I'm not losing $1 for each widget they fail to buy from me, but that's exactly what the paper is suggesting.

    Now, if my customers can make their own widgets and force me to buy them for $1 (as some states require utilities to do), I can claim that I'm losing money on that deal. But my losses are a penny a widget, not a buck.

    • Guys, "lost revenue" is not the same as "loss". If I buy widgets for 99 cents and sell them for a buck, and my customers start buying fewer widgets, I'm not losing $1 for each widget they fail to buy from me, but that's exactly what the paper is suggesting.

      That's because you don't understand the difference between fixed costs and variable costs. The cost of the plastic used to make the widget, that's a variable cost. Every widget you buy has this cost built in. Every widget you don't buy saves you this cost.
      The cost to pay yourself and your marketing staff, that's a fixed cost. It doesn't matter if you buy zero widgets, or 10000 widgets, you get paid the same, the rent gets paid, the phone bill gets paid, the company computer equipment is amortised.

      If you buy

  • We have a load control transponder here which allows the power company to temporarily shut off the air conditioner and/or water heater, basically creating a "rolling blackout" of just those devices when demand for power exceeds supply.

    The fact that they deploy such devices suggests utilities would be happy to shed some load, especially during the brightest time of day when solar works best and air conditioners are working hardest.

    So what's the deal? They want us to use more power after all?

  • by Dunbal ( 464142 ) * on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @07:46PM (#48560583)

    Those utilities are not envisioning the fact that all that power savings that is "eating into their profits" today is energy they can sell to tomorrow's customers. Why? Because populations grow over time, and they grow quite quickly. Instead of bitching about the paper loss they think they are seeing, they should be celebrating the fact that they don't have to build more power-plants and infrastructure for 10-20 years and will be able to serve a much larger base with the same infrastructure. So that 2% increase to the electric bill they apply for in 2024 will mean much, much more actual revenue for them - for exactly the same fixed cost.

    But no. Greed. Let's bilk people today because they dare try to do something to save money and stretch current resources by diminishing consumption.

    • But they do have to build more infrastructure to handle solar. They may not have to build more plants but they have to change the design of the network to handle inputs from different locations at fluctuating rates.

      That said I don't read anything that shows the energy companies here in Australia are overly concerned by solar. In fact most of them push it to their customers. Solar allows them to get electricity at a cheaper price to sell to someone in a different spot. There is money in moving electricit

      • Australian energy companies don’t have too much to worry about, at least while the Prime Minister’s tongue gently caresses the large intestines of fossil fuel executives.
        • Oh? And what would you suggest he should do differently?

          Let me guess? Change tax laws with no consultation? Would you suggest Tax laws that were on the very edge of constitutional legality?

          Mineral resources are owned by the states. Environmental policy is lead by the states with Federal environmental law being able to be MORE strict not less. The federal government has no ability to ban mining, no ability to ban certain types of power stations, or ability to shut a power station down. So how exactly is

    • Those utilities are not envisioning the fact that all that power savings that is "eating into their profits" today is energy they can sell to tomorrow's customers. Why? Because populations grow over time, and they grow quite quickly. Instead of bitching about the paper loss they think they are seeing, they should be celebrating the fact that they don't have to build more power-plants and infrastructure for 10-20 years and will be able to serve a much larger base with the same infrastructure.

      The problem here

      • If all new housing was built close to passive house standards, i.e. properly insulated, heat/air recovery system etc then the demand on the utility will be a lot lower. There are houses here in the UK built to this german standard and they effectively get free heating/lighting because they have a solar system to generate power. Here are a couple of examples how 2 places in Europe have been clever about their power generation. http://cleantechnica.com/2014/... [cleantechnica.com] and http://cleantechnica.com/2014/... [cleantechnica.com]
  • And In other news: Horse and Buggy Industry Face Millions In Losses From Private Automobiles.
    • Except that the Horse and Buggy industry did not have to keep thousands of units on standby for when the automobiles didn't work. The electricity producers have to keep capacity on standby to deal with weather and seasonal variations.

  • by koan ( 80826 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @07:52PM (#48560633)

    http://disinfo.com/2014/12/elo... [disinfo.com]

    Yet Musk’s so-called gigafactory may soon become an existential threat to the 100-year-old utility business model. The facility will also churn out stationary battery packs that can be paired with rooftop solar panels to store power. Already, a second company led by Musk, SolarCity Corp. (SCTY), is packaging solar panels and batteries to power California homes and companies including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) - See more at: http://disinfo.com/2014/12/elo... [disinfo.com]

    • by Nethead ( 1563 )

      Off-topic side note about WalMart. I've done data cable work at more than a few and found that they do one really neat trick when they build: For their main electrical room they haul in a 40' container (before the walls are up) and set it in the back of the store. All the electrical mains come in there through a wall. All the main breakers and the telco demarcation point is in there so if they catch fire the rest of the store has a chance. Off-topic but kind of cool if you're into that thing, which I am

  • Time to tear down all those ugly power lines.

  • I built a house 1 mile away from the overhead power lines. They told me it would cost me 60K USD to run power to my house. FUCK THAT. I installed 6KW of solar panels a nice inverter a decent battery bank and a 30kw diesel genset for 20k. These leaches need to die a horrible death.
  • Ok, so maybe I haven't spent enough quality time with TFA and the overproduced marketing blurb from Accenture that it was quoting, or maybe I'm the stupid that everyone is with, but it seems like the real meat of the article wasn't there. The whole thing reads like a deep fried twinkie.

    So what does "billions of losses" mean in this context? It's certainly more money than my beer budget, or what I'm likely to ever win on the Powerball, but what is it as a percentage of the total revenue of the electricity

  • I can say that I hate my local power company. They have thwarted renewables and competition at every turn. I presently pay some of the highest power rates in North America while our Tiny power company's CEO earns one of the highest wages of any power company. Thus if some technology comes along that is 20% more per Kwh I will buy it if can give a big FU to the power company. I very much doubt that I am alone. Minimally nobody "loves" their power company and thus will feel no loyalty and stay if there are be
  • I can see them losing market share to renewables, but that's not the same as losing money.

    There is nothing about legislation anywhere in North America that guarantees the continued success of an obsolete business model. No matter how many congressmen and senators the MPAA and RIAA have bought off.

  • by Jim Sadler ( 3430529 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @08:56PM (#48561059)
    Germany and other European nations are quickly eliminating fossil fuels and nuclear. In the US we are behind in applying solar, wind and water energy both in a collective and individual way. But the handwriting is on the wall. Big energy will do every corrupt trick in the book to keep sucking at your wallet. As homes and businesses go off grid we will see much higher rates for homes still on the grid. This is Future Shock. It is rather like Uber threatening to eliminate the taxi industry. It is quite like Tesla threatening to cripple gasoline and diesel producers and the cars and trucks that use gas and diesel. And it is like robots replacing fast food workers. It is all happening at a very high speed and some social chaos will follow.
    • Germany and other European nations are quickly eliminating fossil fuels and nuclear.

      Take a look at these actual numbers. Nuclear Power down 0.1%. Brown Coal down 3%. Hard coal down 11%. Gas down 18%. Their overall production also decreased by 21 TWhrs or 4%. So any reductions in nuclear or brown coal can be covered by decrease in demand. Sorry but Germany will be using nuclear and fossil fuels for quite some time yet.

      Take a look at January 2104 (Page 13). 80% of electricity was produced by conventional sources.

  • by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Tuesday December 09, 2014 @09:00PM (#48561087) Journal

    ....smells suspicious - all the meme-generating about "utilities are terrified of renewables" from multiple sources and multiple directions makes me think that someone's laying the ground work to fight the eventual effort of "Ah, so, now that renewables are so fearsome, I guess we need to pull their subsidies".*

    *to be clear, I would love to see the subsidies pulled from ALL power generation, conventional, nuclear, and renewable, and let's actually see which wins out in the marketplace as the cheapest (or, if not precisely cheapest, the best compromise for the bulk of the populace between cheap, sustainable, and clean). But that's a Pollyanna belief; I know there's too much money/power in power for it not to be gamed by every side simultaneously.

  • All those billions saved by the consumer will be funneled back to the local economy and smaller companies. Those companies will develop new technologies faster than some company only concerned with profits over market innovation. As an added bonus the gov will get a bigger chunk of tax since the little guya will pay way more corporate tax than some big ass corporation.

  • ...and protect their business model! It's the American way (tm)(R).
  • After following PV solar developments for over 40 years, I've noticed two things:
    #1 - Every month there is a technology breakthrough that will 'revolutionize' the industry.
    #2 - After 40 years (40 X 12 = 480 breakthroughs) we are 2X as efficient as before.

    The utility industry needn't panic immediately. We'll need a few hundred more revolutionary breakthroughs first.

    Oh, and storage technology? You guessed it, many more revolutionary improvements needed. Or maybe we should just return to the original meaning o

  • So, what are we supposed to do? Is there some call to protect their interests? Are we supposed to shun solar now because somebody might not make their projected profits? Are we being told that our economic system abhors self sufficiency? For capitalism that appears to be so.

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