Technology Changes To Kill Netbooks? 394
The BBC is reporting that the netbook craze may already be nearing the end of its run. Citing rising netbook prices and many other evolving technologies that can potentially fill that gap, some critics think that the limited power of netbooks will ultimately bring about the quick demise of the once popular device. "Ian Drew, spokesman for chip designer Arm, also believes netbooks are in for a shake-up. Consumers, he said, were chafing against the restrictions that using a netbook imposed on them. 'We have failed the consumer because we have imposed constraints on them,' he said. Changing web habits and greater use of social media will mean consumers will be looking for gadgets that are tuned to specific purposes. 'It will be a lot of different machines for a lot of different people,' he said. 'This whole market will be exploding in the next couple of years.' Impetus for this change will come, he believes, from the phone world where many, many types of gadgets are already blooming."
Will the same happen to phones? (Score:5, Interesting)
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Perhaps - though we do see technology becoming cheaper and more powerful over time. My first Intel 286 based PC was $2,500 and had a whopping 128KB of memory.
Today, my iPhone has orders of magnitude more processing power, memory, storage and screen pixles. Its just a few hundred bucks.
I think we are heading to more powerful, small and cheaper devices. One of the defining things will be physical screen size (not pixel resolution). I think there will be four first order sizes:
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Many contemporary netbook models run Windows XP or Windows 7 which has forced the specifications, and price, upwards. Many, he said, now cost at least £350, a figure close to that for a more capable full-size laptop.
I wonder if licensing costs will be enough of a factor to help edge linux back (or get manufacturer support increased) onto netbooks. It seems XP was ok, but I'm curious what the price difference is for a crippled windows 7 install. I've seen returns on those netbooks because the buyer couldn't change the background!
Re:Will the same happen to phones? (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Will the same happen to phones? (Score:5, Interesting)
They've been predicting the "specialized computer" for 25 years now, and what's actually happened is that even specialized devices like cell phones and music players are in fact evolving towards becoming general computing platforms. In other words, this guy is completely wrong.
Re:Will the same happen to phones? (Score:5, Informative)
the article should be tagged FUD, really.
MS doesn't like netbooks because of a lack of margin, so they try to put out press whenever they can against the concept.
In reality, netbook sales are WAY up [hothardware.com], which isn't a sign of them going down.
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Re:Will the same happen to phones? (Score:4, Informative)
I believe TFA is talking about the Latitude ON technology at that point. Basically the Linux system is running on an ARM processor (and probably from an embedded flash, instead of HDD/SDD), while the Windows system runs on Intel processor (the laptop has both). It's hardly a fair comparison, but that's what you get for not having an ARM port of Windows.
Re:Will the same happen to phones? (Score:4, Insightful)
Which is why this is a semantics argument based on marketing hype and the hope of margin salvation among Microsoft and major US hardware makers. These guys are scared to death of the low margins and economics behind netbooks, and for good reason.
The answer is: machines will continue to get smaller, faster, blah blah blah because of Moore's Law and economics. The heady days of $1500 notebooks ought to be over and dead. We already dispose of hardware (sadly, way too quickly) and netbooks will always be cheap, built cheaply, and either steps to bigger hardware or as secondary devices. So be it.
The propaganda and FUD galls me.
Comment removed (Score:4, Informative)
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intel and the big brands dont like the margins, microsoft didnt like the potential customer exposure to linux, in combo with the inability to run vista, so they had to keep XP on lifesupport, while making sure the license had no loopholes for using it on more powerful hardware (thats why it have silly requirements like only 1GB of ram).
now win7 have a starter "version", that make for a grand upsell for both microsoft and the computer brands, as they can simply slap starter on things (backed by a nice fat re
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The article had dollar values as well. Netbook sales in 2009, according to the article, were worth $11.4 billion dollars, which is just over 10% of the total for portable PC sales. What's more, because of the low price of netbooks the unit sales numbers are even more impressive. Apparently 33 million netbooks were sold out of 169 million portable PCs. In short, approximately 20% of all portable PCs fit into the netbook category.
Perhaps even more interesting is that while unit sales for all portable PC
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I agree. Ian Drew is the vice president of marketing at ARM Ltd. ARM sells chip technologies used in embedded devices and their competitors are Intel and AMD. Of course ARM Ltd would love if everyone bought "specialized" devices powered by the ARM Ltd technology instead of Intel/AMD powered general use netbooks. How he thinks a specific embedded device is less constrained than a netbook is beyond me. I think it's cool to browse the web from my ARM Ltd powered 42in LCD TV but I'll bet my next years sala
Re:Will the same happen to phones? (Score:5, Insightful)
Of course he's wrong.
When you hear people who make a popular product predict the demise of that product, what it usually means is the profit margins aren't big enough, so they're about to come out with some new, more expensive product that has higher margins.
The local stores have been having trouble keeping many of the netbook models in stock. The downward pressure on prices has been strong due to competition and online sales.
Instead of improving the product at the same price point, taking advantage of larger production runs and efficiencies to lower prices, things which companies usually do, they're going to see if they can sell less for more. Instead of $99 netbooks, which is the next logical step, we'll end up with >$400 netbooks that will have better graphics, telco tie-ins, 3G instead of wi-fi and other limiting "features". The things that made netbooks so popular will be replaced by things which make more money for the manufacturers and telcos. You see this kind of short-sighted behavior in lots of industries, not just consumer electronics. They'll say "this is not a product that consumers want". In this new top-down economy, the manufacturers tell us what we want, instead of the other way around.
There's no reason we couldn't see a $99 netbook that would surf the web, do email, light productivity apps, etc. How many of us would love a cheap netbook that you could put in a coat pocket or backpack that didn't way 3 pounds, had decent battery life and wifi? It could run on some flavor of Linux. It doesn't have to run the latest games, Photoshop or Windows. But I predict that any company that tried to sell such a product would get tied up in patent lawsuits, hit with phony shortages from memory or processor suppliers or simply bought out by a bigger company.
If anything, the netbook is going to be a victim of its own success, killed by an industry that has morphed from one based on innovation to one based on corporate dictates.
Out consumer no longer treats consumers as anything but part of the mechanism that provides wealth to equity owners.
Re:Will the same happen to phones? (Score:4, Insightful)
Of course he's wrong.
Sure, at least for now.
But truth is, the long-term trend is that everything is getting "sucked up" into the phone. Let me rattle off some examples that I live with, every day:
1) I have a dedicated digital camera (I paid $59 for it, BTW) that takes nice, high quality 10 MP pictures, and better-than-VHS quality video, but it's quite common that the shatty camera in my phone is actually good enough for the job, despite its flaws.
2) I have a dedicated MP3 player, but it's also common that my phone is good enough for that job, too, even if the battery life is weak.
3) And I have a small-sized laptop that approximates a new "netbook", but it's common that the browser in my phone is good enough, too.
4) I don't carry maps anymore - google maps is already installed in my phone and is better than any map, anyway, for what I need!
5) I don't ever remember phone numbers - it's either in my history or contacts list, or doesn't exist. Nicely, my smartphone integrates with my company's Zimbra mail server, so if anything happens to my phone, all my contacts, calendar, and email are backed up on the server!
6) I have decks of cards, but they are used perhaps 1/10 as often as the card games on my phone. Video games? Sure, but my phone is with me when I'm waiting at the DMV - the Xbox isn't.
7) I usually watch shows and movies on my Mac Mini in my Bedroom, or on the big-screen in the living room. But often, I watch shows on my phone! Hulu plays passably well on my dual-core ARM based smartphone! Audio isn't great, and the screen is a few inches in size, but it's with me everywhere!
In short, my phone does none of these especially well, but it does all of these in a manner that's often passable and sometimes best available. The phone is slowly sucking up all these (and more) into a single device, and it gets better every single year. The screens are getting sharper, the battery life improves, the capability gets smoother, the price is dropping... It's improving in every measurable way.
Instead of $99 netbooks, which is the next logical step, we'll end up with >$400 netbooks that will have better graphics, telco tie-ins, 3G instead of wi-fi and other limiting "features". The things that made netbooks so popular will be replaced by things which make more money for the manufacturers and telcos.
Which is just so much silly talk! Manufacturers want to sell hardware, and manufacture stuff that people buy, at a price high enough for them to make money at it. Here you are wailing about netbooks without wifi, when my farking PHONE has wifi. (Incidentally, the wifi in my phone leads to the unusual situation of running skype on my phone over wifi to replace... my phone - head assplodes!)
Manufacturers will stop selling systems with wifi when people don't want systems with wifi enough to buy them. They will stop selling systems with floppy disks when nobody cares about them. And so on...
Relax!
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That's my fear. They're going to accumulate features and video and bigger displays and extras until they end up being the 4 pound monsters they were meant to replace.
Re:Will the same happen to phones? (Score:4, Insightful)
There is no substitute for having a general-purpose programmable device, in other words a computer, because it realizes the ideal of limitless adaptive capability. Everything else - form factor, weight, battery life, link speed, keyboard size, screen size, audio quality, you name it - can be viewed as a constraint on that capabilility.
Okay, that's a bit of hyperbole there. But still, it's useful to think in terms of reducing constraints and not just adding features. That's why the idea of having multiple devices to deliver multiple features fundamentally makes no sense. It's not just the clutter and burden of it all, it's the lack of integration which places a constraint on capability.
Take measuring instruments, for example. Which would be more useful, an air pollution sensor with its own little keyboard and screen, or a sensor which interfaces to your personal compute node which also - by the way - has access to a GPS receiver?
It's in the integration of this data where patterns can be detected. The data is already lying out there in the universe, we might say, only needing to be sensed. Some of our artifacts get in the way of sensing that data more than others. Why constrain it to a linear stream of samples on an isolated device when it could be had as a spatial map all ready for further processing? And any ad hoc integration, no matter how prosaic, requires a similar kind of general capability.
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Let's wait and see what happens to the Kindle once PixelQi's screens become widely available.
I for one am looking for a one size fits all pda/phone/ebook/MIB/media player, possible the dell streak. No way I'm carrying along 4-5 items if one can do everything reasonnably well.
It's all about the battery (Score:5, Informative)
The problem with convergence is that the more functionality you put into a given device, the more load you put on that device's battery.
No single device - yet - has the ability to power all the various sub-tasks that we use these devices for and still maintain an acceptable level of readiness.
My Palm Lifedrive (which was really ahead of its time) made a great ebook reader, GPS (using a bluetooth GPS receiver) PDA, music and audiobook listener, and a passable video device, gaming platform, and web browser. But all those functions drew on the same battery. And some of those functions (GPS and internet access) require radios to be active (Bluetooth and WiFi) and so they hammer the battery even harder than self-contained apps.
When it is out of charge, you're dead in the water for all those functions.
So now, I have an iPod for audio/visual. I have a Kindle for ebooks. I have an eeePC 901 for internet, general purpose computing, and gaming. I have a Garmin 765 for vehicle navigation and audiobooks. I have a PSP-Go for gaming (xmas present) And I have a phone for communications and emergency web access.
Yes, that is a hell of a lot more devices to manage, and there is a nontrivial amount of mass in power adapters. In some ways, this is a step backwards. But by spreading tasks amongst devices, I ensure that I always have enough battery charge to do whatever task it is I want, when I want it. Or put another way, because I spread the power consumption amongst several devices, the likelihood of .any given device being charged up enough to carry out the intended task for the duration I want is very high.
Another factor (which is related) is that device specialization means the device can be better tuned for the task at hand, and storage requirements aren't a zero-sum. I can have a lot of music and video in my iPod (it's a 160Gb) I can have a lot of books. I can have fully detailed maps of the world and a bunch of audiobooks. I can have lots of games. And I can have a workable keyboard! All this without having to rob Peter to pay Paul in a single device.
Eventually, this will all get worked out. The iPhone unquestionably trumps my LifeDrive as a convergence device. I fully expect the 5th or 6th gen iPhone will have sufficient storage space and mature applications to fully take over the media, ebook, and quite possibly gaming functions, as well as be a serviceable personal GPS. But it will also have to be able to power these functions for at least 24 hours of use without recharging before it can fully replace all the other devices, and I don't think it will ever replace the general computing function of the netbook.
DG
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The real trouble with handhelds is that they have suffered from feature bloat, and reduced battery life, without a usable keyboard, which could be in mat-flexi format and 1400x900 screen.
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I hope we see one of two scenarios play out with what you're speaking of:
1. Tethering. For a low added cost - not the easily double cost of adding tethering to an existing account. I would be willing to pay $5 more to be able to tether to my laptop - even at the crippled 5GB limit imposed by most (all?) carriers today. With ATT, my current carrier, they want another $30 on top of the $30 I pay them already for the PDA plan.
2. That GSM/3g modem in your netbook? Would be cool to see it tied to the alrea
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This is really not happening. (Score:4, Informative)
The netbook is just the first of many. We got a nice device outside of the Wintel duopoly and people discovered that they loved it. Then the duopoly imivated their own version, locking down specs and defining it to be what they wanted it to be - in the process driving up the price and netting them a bunch of embarassing low-margin sales, but at least preventing the other guys from reaping the full benefit of their innovation. If OEMs want to create new things and keep control of the markets they create all that's needed is to avoid platforms Windows can run on.
I think that OEMs are coming to understand that there is a market for any device that enables and empowers individuals to do new things - if it's portable and reliable and doesn't impose unnecessary restrictions. It's not really about the widget, it's about the people.
These statements seem at odds with each other. (Score:5, Insightful)
and
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Thank you. Somebody please mod this to 11, it illustrates the entire article.
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These guys didn't fail consumers. Consumers have choice. They would have failed if every laptop being produced was a netbook and every other old laptop instantly turned to ash. If buddy bought a netbook and cries cos it can't play Crysis, well, that's his own fault for not doing basic research.
This author hails, I think, from the same school of thought as Sony, where they market their Vaio W models (which are kic
The statements are fine. (Score:4, Interesting)
"They" failed in the sense that they created a product for simple web browsing. The netbook is a failure because people still want to be able to burn CDs and DVDs, watch DVDs, play games that require > netbook spec hardware.
Soon you'll see the "DVD Netbook" and the "Gamer's Netbook" and the "Touch Netbook with extended battery life and cell modem with flipout nightlight".
Both statements are fine. You can fail and adjust. This is wonderful business.
Re:The statements are fine. (Score:5, Informative)
CDs and DVDs are overrated. A USB pen can store a lot more in a smaller form factor.
It's a niche product. (Score:2)
It's not a failure because the majority of mobile device users haven't embrace it. I have DVD drive on my Thinkpad. I've used it maybe twice in three years. All my data comes to me over the wire instead of on dead dinosaur media. Burn CDs? Hello, iPod?
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That's very true. That said, part of what makes the netbook so appealing is that the lack of processor power gives it the potential for battery life that wouldn't be practical with a faster CPU. I'd like a computer primarily for word processing, occasional light duty coding, etc. that I can carry easily with me on multi-hour airplane flights.
Here's what I want in a Netbook:
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For example the iPhone and Blackberry are both smartphones, however their design differences are tuned to different audiences. You can do pretty much any task on each device, but the iPhone is geared towards seeing/listening to media, while the Blackberry's keyboard makes productivity applications e
Not the same thing (Score:5, Interesting)
Handhelds such as the iPhone and Android family don't allow for touch typing. Netbooks allow touch typing and as such, they will always have a place as a laptop replacement.
The main thing that would dethrone netbooks would be an external bluetooth keyboard for a smartphone, and it's interesting to note that even the popular iPhone doesn't officially support one, though it can be done with a hack.
Also, netbooks generally run some flavor of Windows which allows people to have a laptop/desktop experience on the road. Handhelds don't quite replicate that experience, though as we move more of our data and applications online the local operating system will become increasingly irrelevant.
The bottom line is that for at least the near future, netbooks still have their place, mainly as a replacement for more fully featured laptops for most purposes, and eventually they will probably be themselves partially displaced by handhelds for most people.
Re:Not the same thing (Score:4, Interesting)
Each format has advantages, but the reason netbooks sell is they are cheaper than more powerful ultraportables of the same size. Speed is always good.
That leaves room for a speed race and will push lots of netbooks to the used market (where geeks can exploit teh cheepness!).
"netbooks still have their place, mainly as a replacement for more fully featured laptops for most purposes, and eventually they will probably be themselves partially displaced by handhelds for most people."
Fully featured laptops are dirt cheap, especially refurb units. Handheld screens are too small for many users. I don't see one format as a threat to another because the market is huge and many people own many devices.
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"That leaves room for a speed race"
Whenever I see another "eee killer", I ask one question: What is the price? More than eee? Sorry, this won't fly.
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netbooks generally run some flavor of Windows which allows people to have a laptop/desktop experience on the road. Handhelds don't quite replicate that experience
The Pandora PDA, (finally) due out this month, runs a Linux operating system and can run any Linux app that either is free software or is recompiled for ARM, which fits in RAM, and whose window fits in 800x480px.
though as we move more of our data and applications online the local operating system will become increasingly irrelevant.
Web applications won't dethrone local applications until WebGL and offline storage extensions become commonplace. Games written in JavaScript have limits, and not everybody wants to have to buy a $1,440 per 24 months service plan in order to work away from Wi-Fi.
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Right now I am in limbo. I am waiting for both Open Pandora and the Touch Book to allow regular orders. Both use the same basic processor and have similar stats, though the touch book is more netbook and the pandora is more portable game system. The first one to ship will get me to buy one this year.
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No, netbooks have a much larger displays that smartphone. If you are going to watch films/photos, browse the web or even read the books, then you need larger screen than smartphone's 3.5".
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I agree - I just found out how to get internet on my phone (without paying verizon) and it's nearly unusable unless you're looking for windows mobile apps to install directly.
As far as watching videos: My S10 does a fine job with DVD rips, even the high-quality ones. Not sure about Blu-Ray rips, but no need for those here.
I love my netbook because it's small; it's great for wardriving on a bus (Yes, I can't drive) and it's perfect for in classes, since most professors don't care about the tiny, quiet compu
LaptopSmartphoneNetbookThin Client (Score:5, Insightful)
Tell it to the kids (Score:3, Insightful)
wen evrything u say is n txts, u dont need 2 touch type
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What I think we are actually seeing is just that there isn't going to be a special class of "netbook" anymore. Low end laptops and high end netbooks are unifying to a degree. There are laptops that pack all the high end goodies but are extremely small. There are also netbooks that feature larger screens and such, but still use low power CPUs and so on. More or less, there are just a bunch of portable computers for whatever purpose people want.
So while the concept of a special "netbook" may go away, cheap sm
Trust ARM (Score:4, Interesting)
Microsoft (Score:4, Interesting)
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CE 6 increased process address space to 1 GB
I was playing Flash movies on a Pocket PC five+ years ago in Pocket Internet Explorer.
New versions of Flash (Score:3, Insightful)
I was playing Flash movies on a Pocket PC five+ years ago in Pocket Internet Explorer.
Five years ago, Flash sites didn't require the same version of Flash Player that they require now. How well does, say, YouTube run in Pocket IE?
That's not a liability (Score:5, Insightful)
CE sucks. WiMo sucks. The fact that if you use ARM Microsoft and Intel can't swoop in on your party and run off with your guests like they did with netbooks isn't just not a fatal flaw - it's a main reason for going with ARM in the first place.
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I’m sorry???
That’s like saying that a website’s fatal flaw is, that it can’t be used in that criminally on-purpose incompatible and on top of that more buggy than a bag of insects horrible piece of shit that is the Internet Explorer!
It’s the other way around: Mircosoft’s fatal flaw, that will completely kill off Microsoft and will make Ballmer eat his own chairs, is that they are unable to adapt to modern platforms. Small mobile computers, huge supercomputern, hell, Micro
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Why would they need a 64-bit processor?
Does the size of the number impress you? Is it because it's bigger than 32-bit and therefore "obviously" better?
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the vast majority of arm processors are fabbed with all components, including RAM on one chip. They won't need a 64bit processor until people start putting close to 4 gigs of ram on chip (most are in the 64meg to 512 meg range). Supposedly qualcom is releasing a dual core 1.5 ghz arm chip with a gig of ram sometime this year, we will see where it goes from there.
failure due to high cost, poor quality (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:failure due to high cost, poor quality (Score:5, Insightful)
Who waits for booting when you can just put the machine to sleep/hibernate when you're not using it?!? Shutting down a machine is so last-decade.
Broken device drivers (Score:5, Informative)
Who waits for booting when you can just put the machine to sleep/hibernate when you're not using it?!?
People who have to make do with broken device drivers that come out of sleep with no sound or (worse) no video. I've seen it happen in both Windows and Linux.
Which netbooks do that? (Score:2)
Our ASUS Eeepc 1005HA works flawlessly out of the box.
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I've been using boring 945GM systems daily for almost four years, and have had very few power management problems (in Windows). They all have the same disk driver, same HD Audio interface, and same graphics device. Each system worked fine with the drivers included.
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My eee 900 with ubuntu 8.04 does it, for one. Going to try installing 9.10 and see if that helps.
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While the touchpad on our Eeepc 1005HA is indeed annoying, a $15 mini wireless mouse cleaned that up. The low vertical resolution is just part of the packaging if you want a physically small device. We run browsers full screen and it's great. I dunno what the boot time is, we've only booted it a few times. Hibernate works great and it resumes in seconds with the OEM XP installation.
I think you are whinging about a device not designed for you.
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A lot of that could be fixed with a Instant-on OS that bolts to the main OS, such as Splashtop. I find I use that often on my S10e for fast internet browsing, but can still boot into windows when I need to.
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> It is not clear if the net book is a good idea,...
If you are a customer it is clear, customers bought the crap outta them. If you are a PC maker it was clear they were a danger and to Microsoft they are a mortal threat. Understand this difference in perspective and everything is clear.
The first attack was Microsoft insisting that netbooks run Windows by threatening the venders OEM deals on their other more profitable lines and on the other hand essentially giving XP away for less than the bundleware.
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Of course with the netbook craze, every laptop manufacturer wanted to release an "eee killer".
That usually meant stuffing more expensive hardware in bigger form factor and charging more money for it. So they were in fact trying to make a netbook that is more like a laptop and less like a netbook. To me, that seems like fundamental lack of understanding of netbook market.
They could have made a true eee killer. Giving it the same specs as eee and reducing price by 20%.
The power of netbooks is:
- full PC. No AR
Rising prices? (Score:5, Informative)
What's he talking about? The Wikipedia says the Eee PC was introduced at a price of $399 US. Taking a wander around the racks at the local electronics retailer suggests that the average netbook, which has considerably better specs than the Eee is priced around $300-$350 CAN, which some being as cheap as $250 CAN.
Bullshit. It can never die. (Score:5, Insightful)
it fills a very important need slot : fast, small, web capable device that you can carry around and with capabilities of a normal low end office pc.
as long as people are on the move and need to connect to web from a capable device (of the capabilities of a pc), that need will never cease. its not about 'social networks' or anything, its about a very common need.
i dont know from where the shitty need to link everything with social networks and whatnot comes. probably they are just playing along with the fad.
Abuses of SWF (Score:2)
i dont know from where the shitty need to link everything with social networks and whatnot comes.
Possibly because the "low end office PC" has started to become inadequate for users' needs in the face of web sites' abuses of SWF and the like.
Not for a lot of us. (Score:4, Informative)
Mine (Acer aspire) was less than $300, is small and light enough to take along every day, and
is powerful enough to support the work I do (sw development). All three are important for me
to have my work with me all the time. Any more expensive and I'd think twice about taking it
everywhere. At $300 if I loose it or break it it's annoying but easy enough to replace. Any
bigger or heavier and I'd think twice about throwing it in my backpack every day. Any less power,
or no keyboard, and I couldn't do my work. It's in the sweet spot for portable computing. Sure
more battery time would be nice, but not at the expense of the keyboard, the power, or the
manageable size and low cost.
predicted convergence unlikely (Score:5, Interesting)
Impetus for this change will come, he believes, from the phone world
The predicted convergence is very unlikely for two reasons: keyboard and display. It is not possible to be as productive on a less-than 25cm wide cell phone keyboard as on a netbook, and nobody has holsters or shirt pockets large enough for a real keyboard. The same holds true for displays. Phones are fine for reading WAP-enabled HTML and composing short emails or text messages, but that's not what people use netbooks for.
Apple's rumored iSlate, an iPhone with ports for keyboard and monitor, may work for some but the hassle of carrying around a keyboard/monitor won't be easier than carrying around a netbook, and netbooks will always have far more CPU and RAM.
I have to agree with my engineering friends on the other side of the pond and chalk up another faux-pas to the BBC, whose website, streaming audio, and tech reporting have never been particularly cutting edge. Not that our own NPR/PRI does tech any better.
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Exactly. Some people don't understand that netbooks fill exactly the same niche that Sony Vaio's filled before them: lightweight universal computers, but with display and keyboard large enough to be productive for the most computer task. "Universal" is important part here: some people would browse the web, others would write some documents, watch films, sort pictures from photocameras or even play games. I even have IDE installed and happily code while on the road. You cannot do that with smartphone!
Wintel (Score:4, Interesting)
Microsoft and Intel have been very uninterested in netbooks since they don't have the same market share as full size laptops. That's why the third generation of Atom chips aren't really any faster than the first generation and why the version of Windows 7 that gets stuck on a netbook is so limited you can't even change the background.
But other companies, without a large amount of profit coming from fullsize laptops, will jump at the chance to increase their bottom line. Ubuntu and ARM for example, have nothing to lose by offering netbook products, since they don't have any real marketshare in the laptop market.
AMD has been suspiciously quiet the last couple of years. I'm waiting to see if they might come out with an "Atom-killer". And don't forget Via. They already have a competent netbook chip.
There's definitely a market demand for low cost netbooks, so Intel and Microsoft can continue ignore this segment and risk that their competitors will take it away, or they can get in the game themselves. I think we'll see a real change in the netbook market maybe not this year, but early in 2011 as more and more alternatives to Atom and Windows 7 become available.
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I don't know about an Atom-Killer (I prefer Atom-Smasher for reasons I feel explain themselves) but they have perfectly competitive products in both single and dual-core configurations; ULV Athlon 64 L110 for single, Athlon Neo for dual. I can only speak to the performance of the single-core, which beats the pants off the basic Atoms with lame graphics against which they are positioned in the market.
A "tablet computer" *is* a "netbook". (Score:2)
The distinction between "netbook with keyboard" and "tablet with keyboard emulator" is more a choice of the options you're interested in than a difference in technology.
With luck, the current generation of dedicated ebook readers will shuffle off to proprietary hell, and low end netbooks and tablets will replace them as the high end of handhelds.
But not running pure tethered platforms like Chrome OS, please.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
And you can't use this technology or a similar one for a notebook display why?
Production eInk screens, at present, have 16 shades of gray, and refresh rate of - at best, sacrificing image quality! - half a second or so. Do I need to explain why this would do horribly bad for any general-purpose notebook?
By the way, if you want open and do not want DRM, nothing stops you from using the dedicated eInk, reader hardware, and run FLOSS [openinkpot.org] on top of that.
Evolving != dying (Score:4, Informative)
A good indication of their continuing success is the fact that 10" netbooks still account for 4 out of 5 of the top sellers [amazon.com] in the computers and accessories categories on Amazon.
Re: (Score:2)
Many 9" netbooks were physically the same size as 10" models. The 9" screens usually had the same resolution (1024x600) as do the 10" screens.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
I think a large part of that is due to the fact that the smaller than 10" netbooks tended to have a smaller size keyboard than the 10'ers. The keyboard size on the 10" is the smallest size that allows realistic touch typing for most folks. Smaller than that and you might as well be two-finger typing on your smartphone (which is much more portable than a netbook)
This goes against a thousand years of history... (Score:3, Interesting)
'It will be a lot of different machines for a lot of different people,'
What bullshit. People are predictable, and as with languages, humans will always simplify. If we can make it easier then we will use it.
To use the car analogy: The reason I don't own a motorcycle, a car, and an SUV (one for efficiency, one for general use, one for adverse weather conditions) is because I simply don't have room/money for three vehicles. These items take resources from our lives, just as these portable devices do. I'm sometimes annoyed enough as it is that I have to carry around my keys, my cellphone, wallet, and my keyfob. I'd only carry a netbook/notebook if I needed the additional computing power (or a keyboard, for that matter). Otherwise, my Droid works just fine for most other things. The point is is that we do not want more devices, we want consolidation. We want a one-stop shop because, simply, we don't have the resources to purchase a multitude of devices.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
To use the car analogy: the reason that there are still motorcycles cars AND SUVs is because each person chooses what is most important to them. People each make their individual choices about what is most important to them.
Back to the non-analogy: you're happy with your droid, and it does what you need/want it to. My friend has a 7" or 8" netbook, and it fits in her purse, and it does everything she wants it to. I have a 10" netbook, and it fits in my backpack, I don't carry it with me at all time, but
Blame Intel... and the manufacturers... (Score:4, Insightful)
This is where the major problem lies. Those 18 months have seen CULV CPUs come down in price and go up in performance, but the Atom is sat there anchored to a 1.6GHz speed, most likely for another year or so. The other kicker is that the 7" and 9" machines with SSDs were soon replaced by 10" and 12" models with HDDs which blurs the line considerably to the extent that a netbook is now just a laptop with a slow CPU. The benefits of the small footprint and limitations of small storage have been lost.
Some people will still say that they can do all their basic stuff on a netbook, but when you can fork out an extra $100 and get something like a Dell 11z or 13z (Core 2 Duo 1.3GHz, 9 hour battery life), I really don't see the point.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
The main purpose of Atom is low power consumption. Sure, Intel could make them faster, but only at the expense of higher power. Since its competition is ARM, there's no use doing that until ARM has caught up.
The footprint of a 10" netbook is hardly bigger than the smaller models. A halfway decent keyboard and the much nicer screen make them the sweet spot, that's why they completely replaced the 7"/9" models. If people bought them in droves they'd still be around.
The return of the Bat-Belt (Score:5, Insightful)
> Changing web habits and greater use of social media will mean consumers will be looking for gadgets that are tuned to specific purposes.
Yeah, sure. As a consumer I really want to load my belt with my phone, my music player, my pda, my pager, my tag reader, my gps, my ebook reader and whatnot. I don't mind having ten different battery-chargers in my living room. What I don't want is a 300$ netbook because it does not have a specific purpose.
Which reminds me: when will best buy sell a Facebook device, a Slashdot reader and a youtube player? Cause I still have three inches left on my belt to hook gadgets.
No, they just aren't making Netbooks (Score:5, Insightful)
The problem is the things that make a netbook so desirable by a lot of people - amazing battery life and small form factor - are being discarded by hardware makers. They are insisting consumers want more powerful devices, so they are beefing up processor and memory which eats into battery life. Similarly, they are insisting users need larger screens which increases form factor and also eats into battery life.
So basically hardware makers are wandering into small laptop territory, when I'm not sure the core Netbook market is really moving at all - it's just the hardware makers are moving away from it and finding people don't want what they are making as much.
Re: (Score:2)
When I owned an Acer Aspire ONE, I wanted to browse the web and fart around on the internet.
When I found out that Youtube would be hit or miss, I got a little angry, but didn't get angry with the machine because quite honestly, the price was right.
Marekting will kill the netbook (Score:5, Insightful)
As they demand more and more laptop features ( and higher costs ).. as eventually they will become laptops and the market will vanish. The people will still want them, but they wont exist. ( barely do now )
Best of all worlds (Score:2)
So netbooks have a future, at least if can b
What's important about a netbook (Score:2)
To me, what's important about a netbook, is:
1) size -- 7" - 12" screen
2) price -- under $600
3) functionality -- runs the basics (real web browser, terminal or dedicated ssh client, vnc viewer, IM, document viewers)
4) shape -- the above things can also be applied to "tablets", but the difference between a mid-range tablet and a mid-range "clamshell" is the keyboard. The "mid-range clamshell" is a "netbook" (with or without the swivel screen/convertible tablet capability). Not a smartbook, not a sub-noteboo
I want a small light notebook (Score:5, Interesting)
I need a real computer. I would like to be able to have it anytime, anywhere,
and net-connected of course.
I want to be a contributor, a producer, a writer, a creator, with my computer,
not just a consumer whose expresion of choice amounts to little more
than clicking the channel changer on the advertainment opiate-for-the-masses drip.
So I need a full keyboard or equivalent. NOT a touchscreen virtual keyboard.
I just need continued miniaturization, so that my current 4.5 pounder iBook G4 12"
becomes a 1 pound "wafer thing" wonder that I can stuff in a big pocket of my
jacket and go. But somehow, I need at LEAST 1024x768 resolution.
Hey but that's just me. Maybe the real deal will be a separate 1024x768 or better
tablet with a separate bluetooth fold-up keyboard optional.
Netbook was never really a separate category (Score:2)
They were just a smaller laptop. Certainly, blurring the lines is going to happen.
Netbook weirdness (Score:5, Insightful)
What is it with all the netbook weirdness.
I have an Eee 900 20G. Basically it is a small, cheap, very light, well built machine with a moderate battery life. It can combine those properties because it was very low spec compared to its contemporaries. Other than that, it is just a laptop. There are no restriction or lack of featuers. It is just a laptop.
I happen to like it because I don't require a fast machine or a large screen. Therefore it is better than almost all other laptops (for me) because it nails the specs I do care about.
When I am at home, I plug it in to an external monitor and DVD drive and it works well as my home (entertainment) computer.
I can't believe I am the only person in the world who does not need a fast machine. I have particular trouble believing it because they sold so very well.
I can see that the netbook markey it "dieing" mainly because the speed, size, weight and cost has gone up, making them merge with the normal laptop segment. There's therefore nothing to distinguish them from normal laptops. But when they were small, cheap and light they sold well.
The great thing about generic PCs is that they span niches from Vortex86, PC/104, through to laptops (with any practical range of speed, weight, battery life, cost size), luggables, desktops (from tiny Via /atom to quad socket behemoths) through to servers in as many shapes and sizes.
Why does this particular combination of weight, speed, size and cost seem to cause so much consternation?
Nothing to see here (Score:2)
Here we go again...Arm had their chance (Score:3, Interesting)
Didn't we go through this already? Arm made their push with PDA's then pushed their demise with the declaration that everyone wanted all their gadgets integrated. Now they claim everyone wants their gadgets separate and specific? Guess their original world domination plans didn't work out quite the way they wanted?
While I agree that the netbook as it is now will change and evolve, there is now a proven niche for low-mid cost devices that can do basic computer tasks, features and abilities will increase but I don't see this market segment going away. There are plenty of us that like the idea of a kindle for instance but find it too limited in what it can do, tablets seem like the natural progression. I know they have been tried before, but integration in the past wasn't nearly at the level it is now and cost of production and ownership kept the really good ones out of the hands of mainstream consumers. Perhaps improvements in communication, power consumption, quality, speed and costs have advanced us to the point that Star-Trek like data tablet is finally ready for prime time?
A subnotebook by any other name... (Score:2, Interesting)
My new netbook is the same size and relative speed as my 5 year old Toughbook (CF-M34), just less drop-able.
And I think my 1995 IBM 701 thinkpad was even smaller.
The format stays the same, we're not going to carry-around another device just for Facebook. Even non-smart-phones can change your status, and I doubt Facebook will change that.
The netbook just made an old product new again.
It's a new sub-notebook at the same price as a 5-10 year old "Used" small laptop(sub-notebook) that you can find on E-Bay. And
What's the difference... (Score:2)
Is the 12.1" powerbook I have on my desk retroactively a netbook? Other than the fact it does have an optical drive? Now I see some "netbooks" with 11.6" screens and are only $50 less than the 15" "laptops" setting right next to them with a full sized keyboard, a better processor, and more RAM.
People want cheap (Score:4, Insightful)
I don't want a cheap laptop (Score:3, Insightful)
I want a small one that is easy to carry.
I am sure I am not alone.
I don't need 15inch screen, neither do I need CD/DVD drive!
Wishful Thinking (Score:3, Insightful)
If netbooks die, it won't be due to "technology changes," it'll be due to Microsoft and Intel doing everything in their power to kill them off, despite high consumer demand. This is a short-sighted, greedy move on their part, and if they don't offer what consumers want, then someone else will move in that will. This is why I think Chrome OS, despite its simplicity, will be huge. If nothing else, it'll light a fire under Microsoft's and Intel's feet.
synopsis (Score:3, Informative)
So basically, the article says netbooks are going to fail because of:
* rising netbook costs
* smartphones increasing in functionality
* ARM preeminence on the horizon
* specialized devices (ie Kindle and kin) serving people's needs
Basically, what it boils down to, is "Netbooks are too expensive now due to Windows".
Frankly, I think the article is full of crap. The netbook isn't going anywhere; in fact, I think we'll see netbooks getting more features in the coming year, reducing their cost and/or increasing their diversity. Namely:
* That Pixel Qi or whatever screen which is viewable in direct sunlight we've been hearing about. Who needs a Kindle (for only $100 less) which is a crippled device, when you can get a full computer?
* "Convertible" displays (ie tablets), again challenging the Kindle
* Touchscreens
Granted, if ARM based devices can get into the market in the sub-$300 range and have all of those above features, I don't see why they wouldn't be able to "compete" with Intel based machines - x86 Windows and x86 apps included.
Personally, I've been waiting for better part of a decade for what is, essentially, a modern ARM tablet with a low-power display (loooong use) which is also similar to the NEC MobilePro 790 and/or 900. Might actually have a chance of that at some point. Surfing the internet from the top of a mountain after weeks of being there, via packet radio, would be so cool...
Desperately trying to stop $199 laptops. (Score:5, Insightful)
As others have pointed out, the anti-netbook push is a desperate attempt by manufacturers to prevent the computer industry from migrating to $199 laptops. The EeePC was originally announced as a $199 laptop. [pcworld.com] Massive efforts have been expended to stop that trend, by both Microsoft and Intel. Microsoft, of course, frantically announced a life extension for Windows XP, with CPU speed and screen size restrictions designed to cripple "netbooks". Intel actually has a screen size restriction for Atom-based netbooks. (For a CPU manufacturer, that's sheer arrogance.) The netbook manufacturers were pressured to move away from Linux. (The first generation of netbooks ware all Linux-based.)
It's been successful. Since 2007, the price point for netbooks has moved up, not down. Try searching on Amazon. (Hint: search "netbook computers -case -cover -sleeve -stickers -skins -adapter -keyboard -screen -charger -drive -speaker -phone -accessory -komputerbay -battery -cable -mouse", then use the "Sort by lowest price" option. Amazon doesn't make it easy to find the cheapest product.) The cheapest is a Visual Land 7" laptop [amazon.com] at $149. EeePC units now start at $249. The cheapest new newbook on Google Shopping (which seems to be mostly a rehash of Amazon) is $229. The cheapest netbook at WalMart is $278.
Twitterpeek! (Score:3, Funny)
I completely agree with the guy. We need more specialized devices. Unfortunately clothing manufacturers are not keeping up with the number of pockets required for them but they will see the light.
Look at my gadget bag, its perfect, cell phone, Peek, Twitterpeek, Celio Redfly, iPod touch, Epson photo viewer, Canon ELPH digital camera and EeePC. I can't wait for Peek to release Facepeek for Facebook!
I am also looking for Palm Fooleo on eBay. I dont understand why they have cancelled this device. It would be great seller and would help Palm much more than stupid Pre and WebOS.
I really need to buy more crappy ARM powered one function devices because my bag looks empty. Ian Drew, than you for your vision of the future, I can't wait!
Re: (Score:2)
battery life!
Huh? I'm typing this on an Eee with a 64 Whr battery that lasts over eight hours of normal use. I'm rarely away from a charging point for longer than that. This machine has totally changed my computing life: I take it with me everywhere (1.3 kg!) and while it's never going to win awards for speed it runs adequately fast. I've got cygwin loaded on it and even do a little Python development as well as word processing, Web browsing and e-mail. It pretty much hits the sweet spot between a PDA/
Re: (Score:2)
Bullshit. The dual-core Atom CPUs use much more power than the Atom N270/N280.
Bullshit. Netbook prices are lower today.