Hard Drive Prices Hitting New Lows 143
Lucas123 writes "The average price of notebook hard drives tumbled to $53 in the third quarter of 2007, from $86 in the same period during the previous year, according to a survey by a market research firm. The price drop can be accredited to competition among six vendors, enormous demand for PCs and consumer electronics as well as evolving flash memory drives. 'Lower-capacity notebook drives showed smaller price drops, while newer high-capacity drives saw massive price drops ... Notebook drives with 320GB of storage will drop as a result of the addition of new features, while prices will stabilize on lower-capacity notebook storage devices like 80GB hard drives.'"
Enormous demand equals lower prices? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Enormous demand equals lower prices? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Enormous demand equals lower prices? (Score:5, Insightful)
Unless there is an opportunity to continue introducing 'premium' products (i.e. large capacity, or new features) using the same production technologies, then the margins get so tight that the weakest producer goes bust and/or is bought out by one of the stronger players.
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Anyway, as the market sends more money in laptops than in desktops, increased production lessen the R&D costs per unit sold, and economies of scale allow lower prices also. High competition forces cost cutting measures (if I have a huge profit, I don't need to cut costs)
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Re:Enormous demand equals lower prices? (Score:4, Informative)
Being born causes death (Score:2)
To say that enormous demand means lower prices is about as meaningful as saying that being born causes death.
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Enormous demand + high competition = lower prices.
Not unpossible.
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Not always. Enormous demand + high competition + low supply == high prices...usually.
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Enormous sloppiness (Score:2)
There is a connection, but it's the other way: cheaper drives means cheaper PCs mean more people buy PCs.
Re:Enormous demand equals lower prices? (Score:5, Informative)
Mass production is only viable with high demand. I'm not sure if you ever tried to negotiate shipment from a Taiwanese company. When they say 100, they are talking about 100 thousand units. 10K units is what they call a "small shipment". But I digress.
Anyway, a good part of the cost of a product is related to development. Creating new technologies is expensive. Several other costs don't scale directly with the number of items. So the greater the production, the smaller the cost per unit.
Add to that 5 other companies doing the same math, competing for the same market, and the prices will drop the higher the demand.
Ever since Henry Ford, the simple law of "supply and demand" is not so simple anymore. More often than not, the higher the demand, the lower the prices.
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Seriously, we need to turn this garbage culture back around. Things are being designed to the very limit of human tolerance. I don't need gadgets that break every six months, I already own a f**king car.
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Also building a plant of manufacture something together getting it up and running can be a high initial expense.
Re:Enormous demand equals lower prices? (Score:5, Informative)
That's a shame - you were on a roll, writing the truth, etc. Then you wrote the above and went right off a cliff.
There's a lot of economic illiteracy in this thread, so let me clear up a couple of things. The law of supply and demand is basically a static law, making the implicit assumption that the supply and demand curves won't change (i.e. that supply and demand respond only to price, ignoring capital improvement, consumer needs, etc.). Since it's (nearly) always the case that, ignoring these other factors, higher prices result in lower demand and higher supply, the demand curve is downward sloping the the supply curve is upward sloping. Therefore, if the demand curve shifts up (which is what we mean when we say that "demand has increased"), the price will go up.
What you're talking about is that suppliers are predicting this and building out capital to expand capacity. This shifts the supply curve up. When both the supply and demand curves rise, the price may rise, stay the same or fall, and volume always increases. Your contention that prices will fall is simply untrue - what is true is that since marginal unit cost of production (esp. of tech products) tends to fall over time, supply can sometimes be increased dramatically. This is all perfectly captured by the old, boring law of supply and demand.
Thank you. (Score:2)
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But they do fall. Always. (Well, for mass produced goods.) The unit cost of mass producing an item falls as the number of items being produced rises --- this is what mass production is for. Therefore, if demand rises, then eventually (as you say) more production capability will be built and supply will increase --- but now they're being produced more efficiently, therefore they're available at a lower price. The causality chain is clear: if demand goe
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There are all sorts of events that can mess up your clear causality. What if labor costs fall relative to capital? What if the cost of a key input goes up? You're certainly correct that as a general rule increased production (not demand, though - you slightly misspoke on that point) leads to lower marginal unit costs of production. But this rule is not as universal as the law of supply and demand and certainly does nothing to invalidate it, as the GP was implying.
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In the short term high demand generally means higher prices. As the price rises demand decreases and supply may increase until supply and demand are once again balanced.
In the long term for manufactured goods high demand means that design, factory setup and other fixed costs can be amortised over more units. In a competive market where supply is plentifull that will drive prices down.
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Breaking news (Score:5, Insightful)
When News Breaks... (Score:2)
Roger Moore is a technology analyst caught up in a web of deceit and decreasing prices in the new suspense thriller: Moore's Law!
Re:Breaking news (Score:4, Insightful)
It sort of is news. My experience up to now is that bang-per-buck increases, but the price of a widget didn't necessarily change much, even if this year's widget was 50x bigger/faster/more_reliable/prettier than the widget of ten years ago.
In 2000, I bought a video card (Matrox G400MAX, which I'm still using) for about $160, I think. What does a video card cost today? It's hard to say, since there's a lot of variety. But speaking very generally, a video card costs about the same.
Re:Breaking news (Score:5, Informative)
You can see the chart at the bottom of this page:
http://www.mattscomputertrends.com/harddrives.html [mattscomputertrends.com]
look in the Annual Sweet Spot Price Trends section.
Basically, my data disagrees with you. The average drive is getting cheaper.
Re:Breaking news (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm not so sure about those trends. At least in the U.S., my experience has been that the average drive is slowly getting cheaper, but only if you pay full retail. What I'm seeing in my purchasing is a greater and greater reluctance by merchants to deeply discount hard drives. Where once we had $80-100 mail-in rebates, we now have $30 mail-in rebates or no rebates at all. The actual cost from what I'm seeing is staying roughly the same at the sweet spot. The only difference is that now I pay $100 at the register instead of paying $160 and getting a $60 rebate check after several months. Don't get me wrong---I much prefer not having to deal with the rebate B.S., but you can't ignore that comparing raw prices is something of an apples-to-oranges comparison.
Your mileage may vary, of course. I haven't looked back at register receipts or anything, and it probably doesn't help that I've sworn off Western Digital after a long string of premature drive failures. The brand limitations and the departure of several manufacturers from the market makes any useful tracking a bit harder for me. That said, I'm not perceiving prices (at the sweet spot) as being significantly lower than they were five years ago.
Re:Breaking news (Score:4, Informative)
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Did you guess I'm a pessimistic person?
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You can't expect to see drive prices freefall forever. There is some minimum amount that drive makers have to charge to recoup the cost of building a sealed metal container, an electric motor, a high-precision metal/glass disk, and a high-precision GMR head and actuator. The cost of aluminimum and rare earth magnets all have minimums, and those are about as low as they'll ever get.
In the past, dri
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In 2000, I bought a video card (Matrox G400MAX, which I'm still using) for about $160, I think. What does a video card cost today? It's hard to say, since there's a lot of variety. But speaking very generally, a video card costs about the same.
You bought a G400MAX in 2000 for $160, a card with the exact same capabilities 7 years later would certainly cost less today. Now what you may trying to say is that "a reference card" (which you G400MAX could be classified as, always costs "about $160", however the capabilities of "a reference card" increase year after year.
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um, hello? that's exactly what the "not insightful" parent was saying.
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His point is that it's surprising to him that a hard drive in a laptop costs considerably less today than last year. He would expect it to have much greater capacity, but cost around the same price as last year.
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The "average" video card today is an IGP. So the cost for an average video card is much lower.
Back in 2000 (and before), onboard video was not the rule. These days, most people use it. So the demand for off-board video cards has (and a market share) decreased. Today (guessing here), 1 out of 30 computers uses an off board card (consider business computers here, because you cry foul). Back in 2000, it was 1 in 4, if not more.
Even if you think about offboard cards, the "average"
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(actually you did contradict yourself, when stating that
the demand for off-board video cards has [...]decreased
and then saying
Even thou [...] the market share of offboard cards has decreased, the absolute number of cards sold has increased
- market share has decreased, but demand hasn't if more cards are sold)
The point is that in general gadgets get better, but year-over-year prices for a "standard" gadget don't change considerably (keep in mind inflation before you start quoting prices from the 80s!).
A standard laptop is probably around $1,200, and that's about what it was
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I do understand your post, and I agree it is true for most things. Not (as TFA states) for hard disks. And neither (as I stated) for video cards.
So yes, the concept you are presenting is valid. My point was not against TFA, but against the post using video cards as a valid example. It is not, and I showed.
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Of course, there will always be the early adopter/enthusiast/moron who wants to pay $600 for a graphics card. But if you are willing to settle for 2/3 the performance at 1/3 the pri
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well, duh ... ? (Score:2)
Cheap enough to use powers of two? (Score:2, Interesting)
This IS news (Score:2, Interesting)
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The article is making a statement on $/drive. You're referring to $/bit. The problem is that $/drive is also impacted by bit/drive.
Thus, your case is not necessarily what the report says, since it's only measuring the average drive price, and not the price per bit.
The scenario could just as easily be:
One year you get a 20GB drive for $100, the next year you get a 40GB for $100, the next year 40GB
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What's happened now is that the $100 drive has gotten larger than people need so finally that can drop down to the $80 drive
Also, Loss Leaders (Score:4, Insightful)
Some things, however, seem to be way overpriced. Go to bestbuy.com (for example), and do a search for items like parallel, power, USB, VGA or DVI cables. A parallel cable, for example (a fancy gold one, true) costs $29. A six foot USB cable costs $35. Even a power cable costs $12.
Hard drives have lots of moving parts, and chips and electronics. Cables are, more or less, lengths of wire, with probably around 50 cents worth of copper in most of them. I am assuming that stores are keeping down prices on flashy items so they can then get customers to pay way too much for utility items.
Re:Also, Loss Leaders (Score:4, Interesting)
Well, you picked a place that sells way overpriced stuff. Especially cables. People keep telling me how HDMI cables cost $100, and if you're trying to buy them at Best Buy, you do find them at that price (although, I'm now finding "cheaper" cables. $49.99 [bestbuy.com] is the cheapest I've found there. It says it's an "xbox hdmi cable", I assume microsoft doesn't have a proprietary plug and that's just a regular hdmi cable. If it's not a regular hdmi cable, then the cheapest is a $79.99 4' cable instead. On the other hand, if you do a simple google search, you'll easily find 6' cables for $6.99 [firefold.com]. Same for most other cables.
The lesson...stuff is getting cheaper, but you need to shop around before you buy. These days, with the convenience of the 'net, you have no excuse not to.
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This is my point exactly, that cables and whatnot are cheap, if you shop well. I know this, I work in a store that sells USB cables for a dollar and power cables for 25 cents.
Which is why, see, I made a point about "loss leaders". Those are underpriced items (sometimes above cost, sometimes at, sometimes below) that retailers use to get customers into a store so that they will pick up other items that are being sold at very hig
Actually... (Score:2)
Perhaps you misunderstood my point, because your point is the exact same as mine.
Sorry, I did understand your point, but got stuck on the cable thing and didn't finish the argument. My fault.
The point I was trying to make was that bestbuy just sells overpriced stuff. Period. They're not selling hard drives as loss leaders to get people to buy their other stuff. Their hard drives (cheapest internal 500gb $139.99) [bestbuy.com] are also overpriced compared to other places ($99.99, same specs) [newegg.com]
They're especially bad with things that are supposed to be extremely cheap, like cables, but nothing
Buy Cables Elsewhere (Score:2)
I took the printer, and walked across the street to a dumpy local computer place. I bought a 10' USB cable from them for $5, and since they saw me coming from Future Shop they laughed (knowing the situation) and knocked the tax off too.
NEVER, EVER buy cables from Future Shop, Best Buy, or any other place like that.
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iPod question (Score:1)
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Base conversion problem? (Score:1)
At least I'll have porn. (Score:1)
Whats after Terabyte? (Score:3, Interesting)
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http://damnsmalllinux.org/ [damnsmalllinux.org]
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I don't know when you last looked at OS requirements being around 1GB, unless you meant 1GB of RAM. Sure, I can get linux installed on a 3GB hard drive (albeit really cramped), but Windows? Not a chance... The mainstream uses XP (for now) and a clean install with patches sits around 4GB. A bare-bones install on Vista on my laptop is almost 9GB. I don't know exactly wha
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I don't believe this to be true. I have a fully updated XP install, albeit in VMWare, that takes just under 4 Gig with full Office 2003, as well as several other third party apps.
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Byte, Kilobyte, Megabyte, Gigabyte, Terabyte, Petabyte, Exabyte, Zettabyte, Yottabyte.
Interesting to note that from Terabyte onwards aren't in the default word dictionary for Firefox v2.0.0.9.
Anyhow, what would be in a futuristic one-terabyte OS? Well, name something your operating system does now and imagine how it could be better. Instead of a calendar, an entire multimedia almanac. Instead of a system clock, a functional world (or possibly even off-world/world-neutral) cl
80GB prices WILL go down significantly (Score:4, Funny)
I just bought one.
time for economics 101, zonk (Score:1, Troll)
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MS-OS = 75% of disk (Score:3, Funny)
Too bad (Score:4, Funny)
Great for a portable music collection (Score:1)
Stephen
Streaming (Score:2)
Carrying disks?!? I just use Media Center [jrmediacenter.com] to stream my audio and video over the internet [jrmediacenter.com] from my server to whatever clients I like. I've used Media Center because of its single-click client-specific transcoding and its great tagging/smartlists. However, of late, I've been increasingly using VLC [videolan.org] and Orb [orb.com] to stream more media to my phone [cnet.com]. Anyway, the point is, carrying a physical disk is a postmodern sneakernet that s
3G (Score:2)
Oh, I route through my tethered phone to avoid any workplace/college firewalls or snoops without having to SSH everything and go through anonymous DNS. On a bad day the Sprint/Verizon EVDo gets around 800Kbps. On a good this this can go up to 1.5 Mbps. It's actually enough to do good DIV/H.264 video at decent framerates, and more than enough for video. $30/month for unlimited streaming including voice is a steal.
Someone should tell Microsoft (Score:4, Insightful)
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Your numbers are a bit off, since the Xbox 360 (and the Playstation 3) uses a 2.5" notebook drive, not a 3.5" desktop drive. For $180, you could get a 250GB notebook drive (not a 750GB desktop drive). Other than that, you're still right about Microsoft overcharging people for a 120GB drive.
From a quick look at newegg:
Western Di [newegg.com]
Falling hard drive prices (Score:1)
Examining the price/capacity trendline on his slides, I projected that by perhaps 2009, they would be paying customers to take the drives.
This leads to one of three possible conclusions:
1) Disk drives contain something foul that someone is willing to pay to be ri
80GB is "lower capacity" now? (Score:4, Funny)
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That's great (Score:2)
"Accredited"? (Score:2)
Still Too High (Score:2)
When the 750s are within a few percent of the 500s, I'll be excited again. And screaming for 1TB for under $160, what I was paying for 250GB last year.
Why does the oil price not affect hard drives? (Score:2)
Re:In other news (Score:4, Funny)
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I didn't know she was Asian.
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Which Clinton, the one that was elected to president twice, or the one that is currently serving in the elected office of Senator? Either way, the "unelectable" has been elected. Unless you meant Chelsea Clinton.
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how about this: (Score:2)
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