Toyota Going 100% Hybrid By 2020 619
autofan1 writes "Toyota's vice president in charge of powertrain development, Masatami Takimoto, has said cost cutting on the electric motor, battery and inverter were all showing positive results in reducing the costs of hybrid technology and that by the time Toyota's sales goal of one million hybrids annually is reached, it 'expect margins to be equal to gasoline cars.' Takimoto also made the bold claim that by 2020, hybrids will be the standard drivetrain and account for '100 percent' of Toyota's cars as they would be no more expensive to produce than a conventional vehicle."
All Cars or Trucks Too? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:All Cars or Trucks Too? (Score:5, Informative)
As far as they've said they mean all their vehicles will have hybrid drivetrains. The only sad thing is going to be our grandkids asking us what it means to drive "stick".
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(Then I get stuck in traffic in a stick and wish I had an auto. But 5 minutes in an auto will set me right.)
Grump
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Actually, your grandkids are going to be asking you what it means to "drive". To them, a car will be something you get into and then tell where you want to go.
In 25 years, knowing how to manually drive a car will be about as useful and quaint as knowing how to ride a horse is today.
Re:All Cars or Trucks Too? (Score:5, Informative)
in hub motors are bad, unless they are really light, like around 4-8kg.
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Re:All Cars or Trucks Too? (Score:5, Interesting)
I could see adding a smaller motor for the front and a larger motor in the rear, since the best acceleration comes from the rear, but front or all wheel drive is advantageous in some circumstances (i.e. driving in snow) and could provide even better regenerative braking support. (I.e. the front motor could be optimized as an alternator/generator while the rear one is optimized to provide power to the wheels).
Sure, a motor in each wheel would allow for some really creative designs, but it's not very practical due to the added weight, suspension, cost and complexity involved.
Also, in general, a single larger motor will be more efficient than two or four smaller motors, and is easier to add support for liquid cooling, power, etc. Having exposed high voltage wires to each wheel would be a reliability problem as well as a safety problem as well. Many hybrid motors run at well over 400 volts with multi-phase power and a lot of amps. Having this confined within the chassis means shorter wires, so less losses, less EMF, and better safety.
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You think a 75 hp electric motor is going to be lighter than an axle? Your gravity is broken. Yes, I see your point. No, I don't think you're correct.
Re:unsprung weight won't stop it (Score:4, Interesting)
It looks like you're still thinking in terms of gasoline engines. An electric engine is different than an internal combustion engine. While a car's horsepower is rated in terms of maximum power, an electric is rated in terms of sustained power. It's quite possible to drive an electric motor to 300% of it's rated maximum for a short period of time. For the most part, this rating is only limited by the motor's cooling. Increase the cooling through forced ventilation or other cooling and you increase the capacity.
From my research, due to the efficiencies and torque range of electric motors most conversion sites(from gasoline to electric) say that you only need 1/3 to 1/2 the horsepower for similar performance.
So a 300hp electric could act like a 900hp electric for about 10 seconds. Plenty of power to pass even a number of vehicles on the highway, not to mention get any highway patrol real interested in talking with you...
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There are engine technologies that exist now that are as good as hybrids and m
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A Toyota Prius is a gas assisted electric car. The electric motor drives the wheels and the gas motor powers the batteries.
Actually in Toyota's HSD [wikipedia.org] the gas engine is connected to an electric motor-generator. I don't fully understand everything on the WP page, but it's not like the gas engine drives an alternator which charges the batteries, while the batteries discharge to power the motors. The ICE is connected directly to one of the electric motors.
And just for some pedantic fun, it's "braking energy" not "breaking energy", and "all intents and purposes" not "all intensive purposes". The latter seems like a fairly common
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The only thing holding it back is impact and safety testing (boo) which is what keeps a lot of really cool exotic vehicles from being street legal today. In my opinion the real solution to road safety is to get the damn freight trains off the road and back on railroad tracks. Semi's are a fucking disgusting abomination, and are horr
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Re:All Cars or Trucks Too? (Score:5, Interesting)
Also I know someone wants to reply and say that bikes are slow but its just not true. I go much faster than cars on the freeway during rush hour.
Also bikes are cheaper to buy and maintain, by a LOT.
Re:All Cars or Trucks Too? (Score:5, Informative)
I think the main barrier to bicycling though is that it's not considered at all when building roads, so you end up with roads with no shoulder, and maybe a sidewalk. Neither option is really safe for a daily commute. (although the second is safe for the cyclist...) There really needs to be a grade-separated bicycle lane, at least for main roads. I think more people would bike if they weren't putting their lives in their hands every time they did.
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Re:All Cars or Trucks Too? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:All Cars or Trucks Too? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:All Cars or Trucks Too? (Score:5, Interesting)
I am a big bike fan and don't own a car, so please don't take this the wrong way, but what you're saying is potentially somewhat misleading (unintentionally, I know). Yes, more bikes can fit on the road than cars, but the capacity of most bikes is 1, versus 5 for most cars. Bikes also have a much lower top speed, so the potential "flux" of bicyclists is lower than that for driver/passengers for the same density of "seats".
Consider a freeway flowing smoothly with moderately heavy traffic. The amount of road space occupied by one car (including the gap behind it) could comfortably hold maybe 12 bikes. If a typical cyclist averages 20 mph, versus 60 mph for cars on this idealized freeway, and each car contains 4 people, then the flux (number passing a given point per unit time) of cyclists is the same as that of car commuters.
I have of course made all sorts of assumptions in favor of the cars here--most commuters don't carpool, freeways often get congested and slow, and there are a lot of places where freeways aren't available. Obviously cycling beats the current reality of single-occupant vehicles stuck in traffic. My point is just that a well-designed carpool/vanpool system can actually be competitive with cycling in terms of road efficiency.
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Hmm...well, hopefully by then, they will have designed them to be less butt ugly and more pleasing to the eye. Also, maybe they'll come out with some with better performance numbers.
In the meantime, I'm waiting a few years hoping the price of the Tesla [teslamotors.com] will come down in price to be more like a Vette....now THAT will be green car I'm interested in.
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In related news... (Score:5, Funny)
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Actually, the license is to avoid patent disputes. Ford uses their own tech. Think of it as avoiding 1-Click lawsuits. GM in the meantime only currently offers partial hybrids, and Chrysler has nothing.
Partial points, but not quite accurate. Ford developed a hybrid system that was totally inefficient, so they scrapped it. They re-designed their system and found that, hey, this is almost identical to Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive. They licensed the technology from Toyota, tweaked their own production lines, and blam-o, we have a Hybrid Ford. Bring an Escape Hybrid to a Toyota dealership and they'll be perfectly suited to maintain it, save for the use the Ford's Duratec gasoline engine and other mechanica
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(Incidentally, being unfamiliar with "take a wag", I searched it and found that you're using it incorrectly. HTH.)
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Sole automobile transmission is a hybrid in 2020? (Score:2, Interesting)
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every bicycle is green
Re:Sole automobile transmission is a hybrid in 202 (Score:4, Funny)
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I think it makes a ton of sense. As the scale of production increases, the cost difference will drop. Depending on what happens this may be practically required at some point to meet emissions requirements while having good power. Still Toyota current has one big problem with hybrids: they can't make them fast enough. The Prius is selling faster than they can produce them, I don't know about the Camary and Highlander. On top of those, the Lexus SUV uses the Toyota system and I think Ford might on their hybr
Batteries (Score:2)
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I bet you didn't know most cars have a good sized lead acid battery in them. I believe the rates of lead poisoning far exceed nickel poisoning:
http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/lead/surv/database/State_
Re:Batteries (Score:5, Informative)
From Toyota's own website (http://www.toyota.com/about/environment/technolog y/2004/hybrid.html [toyota.com])
Toyota has a comprehensive battery recycling program in place and has been recycling nickel-metal hydride batteries since the RAV4 Electric Vehicle was introduced in 1998. Every part of the battery, from the precious metals to the plastic, plates, steel case and the wiring, is recycled. To ensure that batteries come back to Toyota, each battery has a phone number on it to call for recycling information and dealers are paid a $200 "bounty" for each battery.
So I suppose that yes, they will have a battery recycling program in place since it is doubtful they would discontinue their current one.
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In wonder what will happen with all those hybrids when the batteries reach the end of their service life and need to be replaced? With this new generation of hybrids, will we see a huge move towards leasing instead of buying?
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Don't know if such a premium is sustainable if hybrids are ever to become cost competitive.
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Then don't make it a cash bounty (Score:3, Informative)
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I'm pretty sure at least some of the 'bounty' will get passed on to the car owner (though I suspect the dealers will certainly pocket some of it for themselves). I think they only pay the dealers so that they won't have to process as much paperwork and issue as many checks since the dealers will aggregate the batteries together.
Also just a little above the section I quoted they talk about the lifespan of the Prius batteries and say that since they started making the Prius in 2000 they haven't replaced a sin
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Really though NiMH batteries are some of the more environmentally friendly battery types out there compaired to all the rest.
'100 percent' of Toyota's cars (Score:2, Insightful)
That's great, except that their new cash cow is trucks. I don't think Tundras are included in that prediction.
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Why not? Its not like there is something magic about "truck" that makes a hybrid drivetrain less useful, and Toyota already makes hybrid SUVs.
why not 200% by 2030? (Score:2)
Disappointed. (Score:4, Interesting)
I'd actually like to see them commit to alternative fuels more. "100% hybrid" isn't good enough for me. 100% hybrid by 2010 would be nice, with a move to embrace other fuels by 2020.
Of course, he didn't say gas hybrid. Diesel hybrids would be nice; and this doesn't exclude plug-in hybrids, which have more utility than pure electric vehicles. And, in some strange way, you could consider a fuel cell/battery car to be a hybrid, even though the actual drivetrain is 100% electric. But some pure electric vehicles would be nice (bring back the RAV4-EV!) as would other alternative fuels.
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Conservation alternative (Score:3, Insightful)
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I think this is an extremely important point. In the rush to limit the environmental damage caused by fossil fuels, it seems the environmental risks of some of the alternative fuel sources are being almost completely ignored. The potential environmental damage which widespread biofuel usage could cause is particularly scary.
Every single study has shown that the astronomical land requirements needed to produce biofuel crops on a scale for it to replace gas in
Re:Conservation alternative (Score:5, Informative)
Nuclear power may have it's risks, but those risks are well studied, and even if every single American nuclear power plant had a Three mile Island style meltdown all in the same year, the collective environmental impact would still be less than normal coal usage. (And of course modern nuclear power plant designs make that kind of meltdown physically impossible.)
Toyotas are Tanks (Score:2)
That's a scary thought (Score:5, Insightful)
I suppose in Car Industry terms, 13 years isn't all that far off. I suspect that a car model is perhaps 5 to 7 years in the making, or longer for a really radical redesign.
But to think that I'll be turning 50 and cars will still be burning plain old gasoline, with only a moderate improvement in performance over right now... that makes me depressed.
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Well, I think that we've not improved cars much at all in the past 13 years. Take an advanced car from 13 years ago. I like the Toyota Supra Twin Turbo. That's fitting because it's also a Toyota. The mileage wasn't that good, but the technology is still above most cars, and the performance is above just about all cars. In 13 years, there is nothing with the performance of the Supr
Re:That's a scary thought (Score:5, Interesting)
You are absolutely correct: this graph [typepad.com] shows the average miles per gallon of all vehicles in the United States. It is extremely telling that the graph is practically level since the mid 80s. To think that we haven't gained any more knowledge of engines is ridiculous - we should be improving fuel-efficiency standards, but we're not.
To address the GP, I recall reading somewhere that if the average vehicle got 28 miles per gallon (the actual number is between 25 and 30), we would not have to import a drop of oil from OPEC. Even if hybrids get only 50 mpg [slashdot.org], the demand for fuel would decrease substantially. Furthermore, the technology that goes into hybrid vehicles could easily improve (it's a relatively new technology).
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The best way to make electric work is to take advantage of its ease of transmission and design around it's poor storability: don't even try to store enough energy for a whole trip. Electrify the roads and keep just enough battery in the cars for the short segments
Hmm... (Score:2, Insightful)
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Plus the batteries are typically warrantied for replacement(8 years on the civics I believe).
Re:Hmm... (Score:5, Informative)
From Toyota's own site (http://www.toyota.com/about/environment/technolog y/2004/hybrid.html [toyota.com])
The Prius battery (and the battery-power management system) has been designed to maximize battery life. In part this is done by keeping the battery at an optimum charge level - never fully draining it and never fully recharging it. As a result, the Prius battery leads a pretty easy life. We have lab data showing the equivalent of 180,000 miles with no deterioration and expect it to last the life of the vehicle. We also expect battery technology to continue to improve: the second-generation model battery is 15% smaller, 25% lighter, and has 35% more specific power than the first. This is true of price as well. Between the 2003 and 2004 models, service battery costs came down 36% and we expect them to continue to drop so that by the time replacements may be needed it won't be a much of an issue. Since the car went on sale in 2000, Toyota has not replaced a single battery for wear and tear.
So it isn't as though you will be replacing the battery every few years. 7 years without a single replacement makes me suspect that if you bought a new Prius now the battery would last on average at least 10 to 15 years (since the batteries being installed now are even better than those installed 7 years ago).
Also because of Toyota's battery recycling program paying $200 per battery (though I expect that would drop as the cost of the batteries get lower) you won't, or at least shouldn't, have any form of disposal charge.
Re:Hmm... (Score:5, Informative)
Of course, these are just estimates, and your mileage may vary.
Re:Hmm... (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Hmm... (Score:5, Interesting)
Source, please. According to Consumer Reports, in US Government testing the Prius did better in all regards than most cars in its class, with excellent driver side impact performance. In no way, shape or form is the Civic a "lot" safer than a Prius.
has significantly more performance
Source, please. The Civic automatic sedan does 0-30 in 3.6 seconds and 0-60 in 10.1 seconds. It does 45-65mph in 6.0 seconds. The Prius does 0-30 in 3.7 seconds, and 0-60 in 10.5. The Prius goes 45-65 in 6.4 seconds. Virtually identical performance, and the Prius is a larger car with more interior volume and a much quieter ride than the Civic.
and your Civic isn't a bomb on wheels waiting to go off should the battery compartment be intruded upon by another vehicle
Source, please. I haven't seen any reports regarding a Prius going up in smoke. Frankly, I'd be a lot more worried about the gas tank in either car than the batteries. Gasoline vapors are far more likely to explode than any battery.
Before this happens... (Score:2, Interesting)
1) The money saved in the design by not having the electrical engine, battery, extra alternator system
2) The added vehicle life (if any) by not having extra parts to fail.
3) A more realistic estimate of the gas money saved under the new, more realistic mileage ratings [slashdot.org]
4)The additional cost of disposing batteries from the hybrid upon the hybrids end
I feel that we
GM Pledges to have a hybrid vehicle by 2020! (Score:4, Funny)
-Rick
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2006 Chevrolet Silverado
2006 GMC Sierra
2007 Saturn Vue
And soon including the upcoming 2008 Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon.
What a dreadful idea (Score:4, Interesting)
Why would anyone wants to do this? It actually doesn't make any sense. 100% of cars represents a lot of recycling and a lot of cost (and pollution) in expired and leaking batteries.
A hybrid can't make an engine more efficient. It just makes it more efficient over certain parts of the power band. Unless they redefine hybrid to mean starter-alternator with minimal power assist there are going to be a lot of cars that don't see any gain. Incidentally I do think every car will (and should) have a starter-alternator in that timescale.
Other improvements in engine technology are negating the need for a hybrid motor at all. Going back to the Honda Insight the original hybrid: it doubled the milage of a Civic. 35% was due to exotic materials, aerodynamics, reduced rolling resistance; 35% was due to a more efficient engine and the last 30% was due to the expensive hybrid drivetrain.
By all means hybrids should become more popular, even more popular than conventionally powered but full replacement is based more on dogma and marketing than sound engineering reasons.
Hybrids can be better at highway speeds too (Score:5, Informative)
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No, it's exactly correct.
Mileage, yes. "Hybrid," no. Your car's hybrid system (electric motor/generator) shuts off at 35MHz, and can't possibly help your gas mileage, in any way, above that speed.
Re:Hybrids can be better at highway speeds too (Score:4, Informative)
Re:What a dreadful idea (Score:5, Insightful)
Really, the other efficiencies of hybrids are side effects of regenerative braking - once you've got an infrastructure in the car to store kinetic energy and subsequently deliver it to the wheels, you might as well use that infrastructure to improve the running efficiency as much as possible.
Now, it's possible that for current hybrids, the overhead incurred by including that infrastructure outweighs the gains of regenerative braking for some driving profiles, but there's no reason to think that will always be the case, since that's an engineering problem, not a physics one.
Other things equal, vehicles with regenerative braking will always be more fuel-efficient than vehicles without. The challenge is to make other things equal.
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That's only true if you are actually braking.
Driving long stretches on the highway there is no braking involved and air resistance is high. You are limited by the power of the gas engine (because you'd drain your battery if you tried to use it continually), so most of the time the weight of the electric portion is a disadvantage.
The real advantage of the hybrid is where there is frequent brakin
Re:What a dreadful idea (Score:4, Informative)
At constant speeds weight doesn't matter. It's only when you're accelerating that you pay the cost of the weight, and (in a hybrid) you recover some of it when you brake.
At constant highway speeds you don't need a lot of power from your engine, so having a small gas engine (like a hybrid) gives better efficiency than having a great big engine which is hardly being used at all.
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That's true as air resistance goes, but the extra weight is going to increase the friction between the car and the road (not to mention the internal friction in the car between the wheels and the rest of the car), so the extra weight will drop your economy a bit.
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It is more than just regenerative braking. Every time you slow from 75 to 70 then speed back up, the hybrid engine will help. Need to pass that slow poke in a hurry? stomp the gas pedal and the hybrid will assist you in speeding up, get pass him and the recharge cycle will kick in to recoup some of the waste used to speed up in the first place.
Re:What a dreadful idea (Score:4, Informative)
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Hybrids are only more efficient for certain forms of driving. For cruising at motorway speeds the hybrid is just extra weight lowering efficiency.
While you're technically right about this, you've really missed one of the reasons the hybrid GETS such great mileage on the highway.
Hybrids are able to have very small engines which produce great mileage because they have an extra "boost" power when accelerating. People really dislike the slow acceleration that having a tiny engine alone produces. In effect the
0% Zero Emissions (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:0% Zero Emissions (Score:4, Insightful)
No H2 or fuelcell vehicles?
You seem to have a reading comprehension problem. There was nothing stated that it would be an all-gasoline fleet. It would just be an all-hybrid fleet. That is, even if H2 or fuel cells were cheap and available, they would still have the regenerative braking, electric assist, and batteries of a current gasoline hybrid. The costs will be so low that there will be no single-source engine more efficient than a hybrid. Or, to ask another way, why would you waste H2 by not using regenerative braking? Why do you think hydrogen would not work with hybrids?
Big deal! (Score:3, Funny)
Toyota does not make cars (Score:2, Funny)
That's why going hybrid will not damage its qualities.
Sorry Toyota, in my 30s I'm not old enough to drive your vacuum cleaners
Re:Toyota does not make cars (Score:4, Insightful)
My fridge serves my needs, keeping my food fresh, just like my car serves my needs, going from point a to point b as safely and as worry-free as possible, hence why I drive a toyota: because outside of taking it in for maintenance every 5,000 miles it's just like another appliance, reliable, efficient, and that does what I need with a minimum of fuss.
prepare for renewed onslaught of hydrogen power (Score:5, Interesting)
Go Toyota, show em how its done. Can you believe that the US had actually started working on hybrid vehicle in 1993? Yup, but good ole George Dubya Bush terminated government backing/involvement once he/Dick created the hydrogen program?
LoB
I won't be satisfied til... (Score:2)
Not necessarily good news (Score:2)
Really, though, Toyota is talking about margins here. In other words, profit. Well, hybrids cost quite a bit more than their "conventional" counterparts. So much more, in fact, that you need to own one for much longer than is typical in order to *break even* through fuel savings.
And, according to this report by CNW [cnwmr.com], hybrids aren't nearly as helpful when it comes to energy savings as one might like to think. Indeed, my Xterra is more
Prius experience... (Score:4, Informative)
1) The electric/hybrid drive is nicer to drive in traffic because the electric drive makes it pull away from a stop much more cleanly and strongly than a non-hybrid drive with no revving-up motor.
2) The wear-and-tear stuff like like brake pads, mufflers, batteries, starter motors, clutch, transmission, starter motor, etc. is either gone or morphed into a much longer lifespan due to reduced wear. The only significant maintenance items on the Prius are oil changes and tire replacement.
3) The battery gives you a backup power source. I've already managed to run out of gas and the battery lets you keep on going for a couple of more miles to the freeway exit which was very cool.
4) The car can run a lot of electrical gear (if you get an inexpensive inverter) if you go car camping since it is basically a very quiet, efficient 60 hp generator. Toyota should offer an inverter option and a built-in outlet plug on the side for RV owners who tow one behind the RV.
5) The Prius is very cheap to drive.
6) The Prius has a very nice interior space layout (for a small car) with much more legroom than is typical thanks to its small transverse motor.
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Re:What the Japanese don't understand (Score:5, Insightful)
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General Motors estimates that health care costs add about $1,500 to the cost of each vehicle it makes in the United States. Chrysler claims a health care cost of $1,400 per vehicle. Ford says its burden is $1,100...
...Japanese companies face little of this burden in Japan, where the government covers retirees' health care and pays a bigger share of workers' pensions.
And then it goes into pensions:
Toyota expected to pay out about $700 million in pension benefits in fiscal year 2006, which ended in March. That's less than a tenth of what G.M. expects to pay on its pensions this year.
If you have to pay $1500+ more than the competition for pensions and health care of past workers, something has to give. Often it seems to be quality.
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Cheers.
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{shaking head} This is all well and good, except that most of Toyota's North American product is produced in Cambridge, ON, the NUMA plant in California and their Texas manufacturing facilities. They're expecting to have 100% "Toyota" production for North America IN North America by about 2010.
The domestic problems are more systemic than health care
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12 years would be awfully damn quick to come up with and implement an alternative to electric or fossil fuel driven cars. Look how slow progress has been so far.
On the other hand, if gas is $15/gallon, then I bet somebody will figure something out. Isn't the oil in the Mid-East going to run dry in 40 years or so?
Toyota #1 car maker worldwide (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:I'm sorry but (Score:5, Informative)
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Wow, that's impressive. You're currently beating 40mpg in a Mustang?
Re:I want a plug-in hybrid. (Score:4, Insightful)
I'm not looking for a car DESIGNED for that particular 250 mile each-way trip. I'm looking for a car CAPABLE of that particular trip.
However, like the EPA emissions test cycles, this is a real usage pattern, with a mix of types of travel that puts a load on power train and charge control performance that must be met to have a practical vehicle.
It's also likely to be a common cycle: While my particular trip is Silicon Valley to Antelope Valley, its characteristics are virtually identical to trips from Silicon Valley to:
- Reno via Donner Pass,
- Carson City via Carson Pass and Echo Summit, or
- Minden/Gardnerville via Carson Pass, Echo Summit, and the Geiger Grade.
Trips from Silicon Valley to the skiing areas around South Lake Tahoe and Stateline are a nearly complete subset of the Carson City / Minden / Gardnverville trips (cutting off only a few miles of downslope at the end.) Similarly with Reno vs. the (north) Lake Tahoe and Incline Village areas.
There are a LOT of people who make these trips quite regularly, with a load of recreation gear (or gambling money B-) ). (Try it during the winter skiing season, summer camping season, or any three-day holiday and count the cars.) Ordinary gasoline vehicles - SUVs, town cars, compacts, and pickup trucks - can all make them just fine, even in bad weather, on less than a tank of gas each way (and with a safety margin for traffic jams, chain-up lines, and getting stuck in snowstorms on a summit overnight). A plug-in hybrid should be able to do the same, with no penalties on performance, safety, travel time, comfort, or extra fuel stops. (And it should be able to do so with the sort of fuel efficiency improvements that hybrids are noted for, thanks to regeneration on the long downslopes.) If it can't manage this it isn't a viable replacement car for, not just one of the largest urban markets, but the one with the highest concentration of politically-correct tree-hugging early-adopters with massive disposable incomes.
If it CAN hack it, at a reasonable price, it can handle the driving cycles thoughout virtually all of the US. It should sell like hotcakes in the SF Bay Area, paying off the development costs quickly, then go on to take the rest of the country by storm.
So IMHO this trip would be an excellent target for automotive engineers to shoot for in their plug-in hybrid designs.