Gates Predicts DVD Obsolete In 10 Years 668
An anonymous reader writes "Not to say that Mr. Gates has been wrong before (sarcasm), but now he is claiming that DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years. As this post claims, I would have to disagree with the world's richest man and say that compact disk media is here to stay for a while because there is just no substitute for a media that cost cents." (And since SMH is going registration only, thanks to the anonymous reader who points out two non-registration sites -- FlexBeta and Yahoo! -- to read the same wire story, and for the observation that not all of Gates' predictions pan out.)
Video on demand? (Score:5, Interesting)
I still don't have it... The first question I think you should ask yourself is "Is there demand for such a technology", if not, ask yourself the following question "Can I create demand for such a technology". If both questions can be answered with a "No", which I think is the case for video on demand, then trash the idea... Nobody seems to want video on demand, and nobody managed to create a market for it.
Re:Video on demand? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Video on demand? (Score:3, Informative)
Real video on demand is the ability to choose any movie from a library like Netflix has and start watching it at the exact moment I want to. Or, fo
Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Video on demand? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Video on demand? (Score:5, Informative)
Yes, it is. I've got this technology as well with BrightHouse (aka Time Warner in Orlando).
They have channels that are actually interactive, and you scroll through a list of movies, start the movie, and you have 12-24 hours to watch it, pause it, rewind it, etc. very cool. I'm a geek, and I still wonder how the hell they have the bandwidth to do all these channels, plus all the HD channels they have, plus my fast cable modem (3.5mbps down).
Re:Video on demand? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Video on demand? (Score:5, Interesting)
Time Warner's Library is increasing in size, but not all movies that have been in the system are still there.
Time Warner's system gets bigger, but not all movies are around. There have been movies that I wanted to watch but was to lat and they were pulled.
On the other hand, Time Warner does always have a large selection of movies you could watch, including old classics for 1.95(Blazing Saddles anyone?)
Re:Video on demand? (Score:3, Insightful)
but we already have what was said in the story:
It just goes under another nameRe:Video on demand - slashdot poll (Score:5, Funny)
What the current self-styled video-on-demand suppliers are providing is a very limited choice of stuff to watch. That's not video-on-demand in my book. That's "we'll stream you shit we can make money off because it caters to the lowest common denominator".
Video stores and VHS/DVD rentals give you more "video-on-demand" than what's being offered up now.
With bittorrent, you can also make requests (there's a part of the "demand" in video-on-demand), or see what everyone else finds interesting. Plus you get to see stuff before the "video-on-demand" people can supply it.
Current "video-on-demand" services are a poor substitute for bittorrent and a fast net connection. Which would you rather have?
Now, there's a good idea for a slashdot poll:
Re:Video on demand - slashdot poll (Score:3, Informative)
It's not video on demand, period, unless it has two features which tend to be missing from bt. The first one I have actually seen in some clients: Up-prioritize the blocks at the beginning first. The second one is missing: Work with the video player, and retrieve blocks which are needed to continue the stream from some place you have skipped to immediately.
If you combined bt with (for example) vlc you might be able to make a vod system from bt. But what you are describing is not vod, it's video-after-de
Re:Video on demand? (Score:5, Interesting)
Yeah, video on demand is here, but IMHO, it's a step down. I'm using Comcast's service; the choice is limited, and the interface is clumsy (few features, not very responsive.
To me, the math is simple: local storage will always have an advantage over real-time transmission from a central repository, especially as the demand on bandwidth grows. The notion of the network delivering increasingly high-quality content in real time to every possible endpoint is absurd; the cost of the infrastructure to support the bandwidth will be prohibitive.
Which is not to say that Blockbuster and/or Netflix are the last words in media delivery.
Here's my proposal: blend DVR's with near-real-time delivery. Very little media has to be delivered in real time: sporting events, breaking news, maybe (God help us) those final climactic moments on reality shows. Almost everything else could be moved to a subscription model.
Watch "Star Trek" or "24"? Subscribe to the series, and new episodes are delivered to and stored on your set-top as they become available; maybe you get a discount if you're willing to receive the content some time after it's initially available. That's pretty much what I do with my DVR now; I rarely watch a show in real-time, even if I choose to watch it the same day it's broadcast.
Want to watch a movie? Is it such an inconvenience to decide that you're going to want to see a movie this weekend, and queue it up slightly in advance? For those willing to plan ahead, the content providers can balance the load (think Bit Torrent with DRM [sorry]) and preserve bandwidth. The latency doesn't even have to be the total download time; we can already start to view content (streaming media or DVR'd television) before the transmission is complete.
For the really impulsive, the system can be designed to (try to) meet your needs immediately, but genuine "on demand" consumption of a lot of bandwidth is likely to come at additional cost.
It's really the end of the network model (i.e., it would be possible to subscribe to a TV series (or a movie, or a concert, etc.) directly from the producer, without suffering the whims of network schedulers), but that handwriting has been on the wall for a while now.
Oh, getting back on topic: there is a place in all this for those silver discs (or their 2014 equivalent) to save stuff we really care about and free up the hard drive space (or its 2014 equivalent) inside the DVR (or its 2014 equivalent).
Bill has never been one to think outside the box, but I think his box is getting smaller lately...
Re:Video on demand? (Score:3, Interesting)
You need about 1.2MB/sec peak to deliver the content on a DVD. With a ~15MBps connection you could just stream from the VOBs. You'd need a little bit of buffering, but not very much, assuming you had a good solid connection. 1.5Mbps is the standard and many people have 3Mbps or more (in my area, comcast cable is 4Mbps, and I've actually had speeds which max that out in real life, too, when downloading from multiple sites.)
Delivering a lower-bitrate stream at a lower resolution, like say SVCD resolution,
Re:Ubiquitous 15MBps per TV set? (Score:3, Informative)
10Mbps for $100/month sounds
Re:Video on demand? (Score:2, Insightful)
:Video on demand? it's here (Score:5, Interesting)
But this really has little to do with the topic, which is about DVDs becoming obsolete. Consider this: 802.11x in my area is nearly useless as a community service because there are so many trees and such high humidity. And we STILL have no cable and likely never will, and even if they put a dslam in the local phone box most of the "town" is still too far away to make use of it. But the FCC is plodding ahead with plans to usurp the vhf analog tv band and are talking very seriously about giving some of that bandwidth over to local wireless services. That means even out here in nowhereland wireless media distribution becomes practical. All we need are devices to make VOD as easy to sue as the present day tv remotes and most of the community will never worry about those oddball services like netflix (which will evolve their marketing to providing quality rather than just selection) - because everyone will have "on demand" braindead action movies and tv sitcoms and all the crap they have now. Granted it'll be compressed to hell but, given the zeal of directv viewers who insist their picture is "just as good as dvd," most don't seem to have a problem with that now.
I would say that, if the FCC moves ahead with providing more lower frequency bandwidth to "wireless broadband" then predictions of DVD obsolescence are pretty much spot-on. In ten years "DVDs" won't be "DVDs" anymore they'll probably be some god forsaken "Windows Media" formatted disc (aka "WMDs") and most of us will have available to our homes "VOD" of the (shit) quality now enjoyed by all those digital cable and directv subscribers.
Re:have to say.... (Score:3, Funny)
Can you imagine WMD in some place like Iraq?
Re:HERR GATES IS ALWAYS RIGHT! (Score:5, Interesting)
640K should be enough for anybody.
However, Bill Gates does deny that he ever said that, or that it was taken out of context.
At the time, 640K was enough. Today, people are amazed to see anything application whose
T.
Not Quite. (Score:2, Interesting)
Nah! (Score:5, Insightful)
There will be new formats available, so I'm sure in 10 years time we'll all be watching HDVD, or some other similar but greatly enhanced format, but the players will still play DVDs (in the same way that DVD players today still play VideoCD).
The physical format won't change (210mm diameter, 21mm diameter hole, 2.1mm thick), but what can be held on a disk that size will change. DVD is 2 layers, but we have already seen that someone has managed to get 15 layers, and that was 2 years ago.
So, we will have something better, but we will still be able to use our DVDs for a long time yet.
T.
Re:Nah! (Score:3, Insightful)
Gates predicts the DVD will be obsolete because:
It currently uses a stupid type of DRM that was easily broken. The new Microsoft DVD standard will come with Trusted Computing pay-per-view encryption up the arse. They won't make the same mistake again.
Re:Nah! (Score:5, Interesting)
VHS is still alive and kicking, sales may be down against DVD but the demand for VCRs and its cassets are still profitable enough to produce.
No kidding.... (Score:5, Interesting)
Sure if I have a billion dollars in the bank can I have information whenever, where ever I want it. However, I am about a billion dollars short and as such have to stick to cheaper things. Namely DVD's on special or the Movie Channels.
Also what Mr Gates is forgetting YET AGAIN, is that I like to own my own data or movies.
I am also amazed at his prediction that TV's and computer's will know what I want to see. Especially since often I have no idea what I want to watch and make a habit of channel surfing.
An individual who has too much money and time on his hands....
Re:No kidding.... (Score:5, Insightful)
From Bill's point of view, I think he sees the studio's desire for Digital Rights Management as a way to plan the death of the DVD as it now is (which has a form of DRM, but it's been cracked). I also have a feeling that he sees high speed downloads and/or wireless as an alternate distribution means, but again, only with built-in DRM. This would probably be desirable, as if the DRM was cracked, some new form could be used on newer media. Some people will never give up on physical media, though, so there probably will be a "new DVD" format, maybe with a writable area that can manage rights management (probably tied to hardware like DIVX [Digital Video Express, not the codec] was, with some way to view like video stores do, and also probably the thing I dread most).
Re:No kidding.... (Score:3, Interesting)
New format standard! (Score:3, Funny)
Seriously though, as for what it will be, I forsee a return to the Laserdisc format! Ima
Actually.. (Score:3, Informative)
A DVD is 120mm in diameter, and the hole has a diameter of 15mm. And they're 1.2mm thick.
Google knows all [google.com].
On demand = corporate control. (Score:5, Insightful)
Here the crystal ball clouded over due to a blue screen of death. Bill's predictions and his crystal balls can be a little inaccurate. He once said that there was no future in that little networking novelty called the Internet.
Yeah, and he also said we wouldn't need more than 640k but in this case I believe he is at least partially correct. It may not be in 10 years or less but scratchable media needs to go away. We need something that can handle a large amount of data and remain nearly indestructible.
I have probably screwed up 90% of my CD collection over the years. I now just keep most of the music that I really want to save as SHN's on my computer. At least that way I can recreate the CDs as necessary. While I take very good care of my DVD collection (burned or otherwise) I can still see problems occurring due to drops, accidental scratching, etc. I moved most of my music collection to CD in the late 90s and gave away my tape entire tape collection in 2002. What happens when that media goes south (and we have had how many stories predicting that it won't last forever)? I'm screwed basically.
Gates' idea, while nice for corporations that would control the media, wouldn't be so great for the consumers. The RIAA/MPAA would just LOVE to control and watch how many times you watch/listen to something and charge you accordingly. I don't think that the people would though. While he might be talking about a more local storage location I doubt it. Sad but true...
Let's try and develop nearly indestructible media and keep the storage local and out of corporation control. When he says the "TV" will be able to tell if we can watch the content or not I am fearful that he is less concerned with our children's virgin eyes and more concerned with whether our bank accounts can afford it.
Re:On demand = corporate control. (Score:5, Informative)
Personally, I have well over a hundred CD's and about half that many DVD's (commercial that is, I'm not counting all the stuff I burn myself), and over the past 10 years, I've had more hard drive failures than scratched CDs/DVDs.
So knowing that everything will be on my computer in 10 years kinda scares me, since a hard drive is no more reliable than silver discs.
Re:On demand = corporate control. (Score:3, Insightful)
Bill Gates claimed he never said that [wired.com] and, since then, no good evidence has sufaced that disproves this.
but in this case I believe he is at least partially correct.
I think you're right too. If you replace "DVD" with "CD" in his quote you can see that we are starting (albeit slowly) to move away from carrying around a bag full of CD's to a hard disk player than contains many more than we could possibly hold.
DVDs would be the next logical thing and
Re:On demand = corporate control. (Score:5, Insightful)
No, no, that's not what the corporations (RIAA/MPAA) want. They want to end fair-use rights and increase the liklihood of damage so that you are left w/o an option to use the media without purchasing a new copy.
The makers of media want to sell what sells well. The corporations that sell content want to make money over and over again by screwing those that they have control over.
Re:On demand = corporate control. (Score:3, Informative)
The RIAA was formed in 1952 to administer the RIAA equalization curve, applied to vinyl records during cutting and playback.
For those of you that don't know. Vinyl records unlike CDs and just about every other music reproduction device have something besides a flat equalization. That is why you need a "phono preamp" on your equipment to hook up to your turntable. The phono preamp takes the signal and applies an equalization to the signal to make it flat again. I don't know if this is an
of course he does (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:of course he does (Score:5, Insightful)
I think DRM for popular media like CDs, DVDs, etc. will eventually fail for the same reason: people like to own stuff.
nn
Re:of course he does (Score:3, Insightful)
If Microsoft's proven anything, it's that people will gladly pay to be inconvenienced by software if it enables them in the slightest bit.
If Janus suddenly permits Windows users to do something no Linux or Mac user can do -- say, access an inexpensive VOD service with tens of thousands of titles at better-than-DVD quality -- people will not give a fly
Huh? (Score:4, Insightful)
Have you ever considered that they couldn't care less about DRM on the media?
What possible reason would Microsoft, or more personally Bill Gates care about it? Seriously. They don't produce movies. They don't produce music.
The demand for it comes from the producers of content. They're a business and provide it. If they push to have their DRM standardized in commercial media systems, thats what they have to do... to provide that service to the content producers, it necessarily has to be pervasive.
If you want to Microsoft bash, I'm sure there'll be an IE security hole article today, but this doesn't seem like a supportable reason to.
Re:Huh? (Score:4, Insightful)
No, but they would like to establish themselves as a distribution channel for movies and music. If MSN promises the movie studios and record labels that their content can't get copied and redistributed if it's served through them, then the studios and labels are going to choose MSN for their online distribution efforts (that's the theory, anyway).
The content producers want DRM to get money from you. Microsoft wants DRM to get money from the content producers.
Re:Huh? (Score:4, Informative)
Where's "-1 Just Plain Wrong" when you need it?
Microsoft & Gates have invested billions of dollars in content distribution (e.g., cable/broadband) and digital rights to a wide variety of works of art, etc. BillG stands to make a(nother) mint if he can get a working DRM and collect a toll every time someone watches a movie.
640 DVDs (Score:5, Funny)
Why is this news? (Score:2)
Re:Why is this news? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Why is this news? (Score:4, Interesting)
Because setting up a suitable server and network connection is beyond the capabilities of the average person, and will still be so in ten years; and because the smart early adopter knows better than to trust his entire digital life to a single corporation.
I've seen multiple ISPs go under, and they would have taken my e-mail with them if I'd been dumb enough to trust that my mail would always be available to be delivered across the network from their servers. Joe Sixpack is starting to learn that lesson with his "free web mail" service that seemed like such a good idea at the time. Think he wants to put his entire music, movie and book collections on the same system?
Can we pick the order? (Score:2, Funny)
Well.. (Score:2)
Running on what? (Score:3, Funny)
It took this long... (Score:2, Interesting)
More to it than cost... (Score:5, Interesting)
That's not completely true. Higher quality will make another format more popular with users, and something that can't be copied easily will be popular with the MPAA. With DVD burners (even dual-layer and blu-ray) becoming available to the home user, DVDs are to easy to copy from the MPAA's view, and average consumers who don't burn dvd's and get told that a new format will look better on their new expensive HDTV will be tempted to switch over. I read a recent artical about a company that created a new video recording format that hold about 1GB/layer and can be layered 100 deep. It was some sort of "holographic" alternative that wrote the data onto what looked like a 1" square piece of glass. It even had it's own custom reader out that was rather small. Supposedly it's near impossible for a user to make a pirated copy of this movie, and something that small that can hold that much data would provide some incredible picture quality. Anything that can provide high image quality or is difficult to copy will catch on. Remember, the MPAA can shape the market, and if they like a new technology, they can put on the neccessary preasure to replace DVDs before their time. Of course such a move would motivate users to pirate movies online at the same scale they do music (which is becoming more possible with bigger HDs and highly available broadband). Well, in the end, nobody can predict the death of a technology, espeically somebody with a track record like Bill Gates.
Ok, I think I'm done now...
Re:More to it than cost... (Score:3, Interesting)
It hasn't worked for any of the CD replacement formats that have come and gone. The point is, CD quality is good enough for the average listener. And I believe that DVD quality is good enough for the average viewer. Sure, I'd love to see a 1600x900 pixel 50fps progressive video format come along, but I think most people will look at it and say -- so what? The image is a bit sharper than a DVD, but why should I spend the money to upgrade?
Previous Words of Wisdom (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Previous Words of Wisdom (Score:3, Insightful)
It knows all, sees all (Score:5, Insightful)
That's funny, usually I don't even know what I want to watch. If I feel like watching something, I like to flip open the DVD binder and start browsing.
DVDs/CDs won't go away until there is ubiquitous broadband, including in the mountains, in the car, out on a boat, and everyone has terabytes of crash-protected (RAID or whatever) storage (I don't want $8000 worth of movie purchases depending on a hard drive not crashing).
Heck, broadband isn't even available everywhere in major cities right now, contrary to what the pundits say, let alone in your car where the kids want to watch a movie. Sure there are a few mobile broadband pilots starting out, but how long will it be before Verizon/whoever can take 100,000 peole simultaneously streaming movies from their home server to the back seat of their minivans in the middle of the drive across Kansas, and do it for pennies an hour?
Re:It knows all, sees all (Score:4, Interesting)
It's the modern equivalent of flipping through the CD binder, only much more convenient. As soon as I got it, I got RID of my CD binders.
When somebody invents an inexpensive video on demand system with an easy interface like that, I guarantee you'll be using it more often than your DVD binder. Even, occasionally, to watch movies you have on DVD! Shit, I watched the birdcage on TV last week, and I've owned that movie for 5 years!
As for broadband availability: do you think there's a chance that, over the next ten years, speed and availability issues might clear up? I mean, let's see: I got my RR line in a beta program in 1995, that's only 9 years ago. Twenty years ago, I was using a 300 baud coupler modem and the average cat didn't know what a modem was. Computers generally didn't have operating systems, they had bootstrap loaders and BASIC interpretters. It's called progress.
Oh.....my.....GOD!!! (Score:4, Insightful)
On the other hand, as a delivery medium DVD is pretty cheap and efficient, I just think that DVDs should be like other software, you buy the disc and then install it on your movie server and put the disc away as your backup.
As for video on demand, TiVo certainly shows the possibilities and I think that going to a situation where we can select video material from an enormous library where we pay for each piece of material and don't have to sit through adverts and other crap, well, that would be heaven frankly
DVDs - A marketing success (Score:2)
It turns out I was right (I couldn't play a SouthPark (longer, uncut) DVD on Windows because of weird/annoying "unauthorized" and a variety of other messages about a legal copy (Blockbus
At the actual virus/worms rate... (Score:2)
Format or formfactor? (Score:2)
If he thinks we're all going to give up our 5" silver disks, he's crazy. Unless there's a major technological breakthrough (like who knows, holographic cubes or something) they're going to stay around for a while. People still use punch-cards for Christ sake!
It took decades for CDs to overta
Gates is not richest (Score:4, Informative)
Re: (Score:2)
I enjoyed this (Score:2)
"He said the concept of carrying around film and music on little silver discs to stick them into a computer was ridiculous. He moaned that DVDs could get scratched or get lost."
Talking oot his anus... (Score:2)
10 years is a looooong time (Score:2)
In 10 years, a lot can change. New forms of storage that today might not be cost-effective may become so, and the data requirements of consumers may well bypass the capabilities of CD/DVD's. Don't you remember when 1.44 Mb seemed like a massive amount of storage?
DUH (Score:2)
plus i'm also looking forward to 20gig burnable cds.
Gates on the future (Score:2)
Bill Gates published "The Road Ahead" [starvingmind.net] in 1996. The Intenet was not mentioned.
Will DVD's still be for sale/popular in 10 years? Maybe not. That being said, a prediction from Bill should not be given much weight on it's own.
-Pete
Vested interest (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Vested interest (Score:3, Interesting)
Last I heard, BDF (Blu-ray disc forum) was going to start evaluating WM9and H.264 for possible inclusion into the spec. I think its very likely at least one will be approved, otherwise HD-DVD has
Mmm... (Score:4, Interesting)
No, if Gates is right, it will be for other reasons. If we can really get the bandwidth for it, video-on-demand is a neat idea. You pay a subscription fee, and get to watch all the movies you want, and the ones of your choice. There will probably be some kind of add-ins that publishers will come up with that don't exist on DVDs, and demand for the add-ins might produce enough consumer interest.
Other than that, I see DVD staying around for a while.
Let me think (Score:2)
Yeah, and I don't use a floppy either (Score:4, Insightful)
To sum: "Gates is likely off by at least five years," says the 200,000,000th richest man in the world.
We will always have Hard Storage (Score:5, Interesting)
He figured that in 10 years time we'll all be using flash memory based devices capable of holding Gigabytes of data, instead of mechanical media.
I argued that while flash memory type devices would emerge, you can already get 1-2GB USB memory sticks, the CD/DVD format would also increase apace. Although I'd have to say DVD is lagging behind, but probobly only because, unlike USB flash, it required better hardware to use the higher storage. Blu-Ray discs should give us 50GB of portable storage, and Rockstar at least expects them for the next format of console.
I figured that in 10 years time 50GB DVDs will be the norm and perhaps as much as 200GB DVDs will be readily available. While at the same time flash memory might only get up to 10GB at an afforadble price. That was another argument I had in favour of DVD. Price. DVDs can be as cheap as $2, but even a 128MB USB stick will cost $50.
We will always have portable, hard media,(read only?) storage, simply because it will always be bigger cheaper but still slower than the alternatives. Having movies on HDD is nice, but how can we bring them over to a friends or with us on holidays? It's nice to have something you can hold in your hand and say, that's mine, rather than something 'somewhere' on hard disc that might expire, or delete itself by tomorrow.
Why do we care about predictions? (Score:4, Insightful)
Of course he's wrong on this point: true OSS fanatics will still be using Linux on bootable DVDs on their obsolete hardware. And I still have some cassette tapes floating around.
But really, who cares? Gates isn't in the business of making predictions. And the people who are in that business, like Cringely [pbs.org] make equally stupid predictions such as "IPv6 will be popular" and "Wal-Mart will take over the online music market". Who cares?
This is about control (Score:5, Interesting)
It is the primary reason why Windows sucks too: its all good and well to abstract the machine from the user using eye-candy and whatnot. It is a stupendously Big Mistake to abstract the machine from the -admins-.
He reminds me of that IBM guy: all the world needs is 5 computers...
And its true, at that time, 5 * IBM-CPU was enough for all computational requirements of the time.
However, the PC revolution was so succesful, because people -want- control, not just "work" or "fun", people want -information-, especially the dangerous kind, so we can avoid -being- in danger.
Thats also why fire's, and car-wrecks fascinate us. We like to avoid becoming one, it is a good strategy to survive as a human.
"/Dread"
Not obsolete, but moot (Score:4, Interesting)
In addition, we're soon approaching a point where specific media types could become a moot point. As things like memory cards and various portable and online storage capabilities become cheaper and have significantly larger capacities, the very notion of a specific media type will fade. As long as you can store, access, and transfer the content, the medium really will become irrelevent. And there's really no reason that this could not be done (reletivly) securely in a way that could probably satisfy the various "media organizations". It just requires some innovation to make the "playing" of the content controllable.
A Fair Point (Score:5, Interesting)
For example:
http://del.icio.us/ is a site dedicated to storing bookmarks
and there is iDisk, and all sorts of photo sites.
I don't think the article says anything new, the author just tries to make it sound controversial.
---------------------
Freedom or Evil: Freevil.net [freevil.net]
G. W. Bush says, "You decide!"
In other news... (Score:3, Funny)
And in a twist of fate, Microsoft announces Longhorn will release in 2014 on 6 DVDs!
Maybe (Score:5, Interesting)
On the other hand an hour ago I was about to get a big pack of CDRs and was thinking about a DVD burner and then it struck me, why not just by a new hard-drive? its not that much more expensive per GB, its more reliable (aslong as its not an IBM) and much faster especially considering you dont have to look for a disk. I used to burn lots of CDs just to carry work around, but these days i just store things online, CDs have replaced floppies but now they're starting to seem just as crap (with some going bad after just a year or two) DVDs are still not a perfect CD replacement because there are plenty of computers at uni's and work places etc that are stuck with CD drives and with fast internet access getting more popular i can just email myself files or leave my PC running and ftp to it from anywhere. We're going towards everything being networked and online, I havnt used a computer that wasnt on the net for some time now.
Tablet (Score:4, Insightful)
Patience.
Bill Sez: "OS/2 is destined.." (Score:4, Funny)
"OS/2 is destined to be a very important piece of software.
During the next 10 years, millions of programmers and users will utilize this system."
Inside OS/2
by Gordon Letwin
foreword by Bill Gates
Microsoft Press
ISBN 1-55615-117-9 (c) 1988
Probably right on this one (Score:3, Interesting)
Sorry, but I have to agree with him. DVD's are too delicate to survive for any period of time. Especially when you consider Rentals.
Every time I rent a DVD I have to visually inspect it for damage and typically have to clean it before it will work. Compare that with the VHS tapes that you could toss at the dog and still play.
DVD disks are for shit. People don't know how to handle them and one stupid mistake renders the disk useless. I've already watched a lot of Music CD's die because they were mishandled or dropped and again, these don't compare well to the audio tapes of yester-decade.
They sell us stuff that's supposed to sound better, but you can't tell over the traffic noise anyways. Now you have a disk you drop on the floor and it's dead plastic from that point forward. But you can't record it only an audio tape, backup CD, MP3 file to play in the harsher environments. So you have a bunch of music CD's you get to stress about.
DVD's and CD's are the same media. Same problems will prevail. Keep an eye on vehicles. When you get the DVD player in the car, you will have to worry about damaging those Barney and Wiggles DVD's in the back seat. And you won't be able to record those onto any back-up media for use in these harsher environments either.
Get a book. They don't crash.
DRM Cracked (Score:5, Insightful)
The replacement may have the exact same physical characteristics but be incompatible with exiting DVD standards. Once something catches on there's no benefit to maintaining DVD as as standard (even a backwards compatible one).
I'd be suprised if it in fact takes 10 years for this to happen with as much consolidation as there has been among the media companies.
Easy way to kill a format (Score:4, Interesting)
Phase I - Introduce new technology. Market it as superior. Include DRM with better images, features, etc. This will be too expensive for most people. But it will be touted as the next thing you wish you could have.
Phase II - Cut prices. Offer deals with the new hardware. When CDs came out, you could often get deals for 6-10 CDs with purchase of a CD player. Taking that into account, CD players seemed reasonable.
Phase III - Force old media out of the market. No longer agree to buy back unsold media from retailers (except with the new format). Most retailers will not take the chance on unsold merchandise, and will start cutting back their catalog in the old format.
This is how CDs were brought to the market in such a short time and why LPs lost favor. Once that critical market mass is reached, the old technology will be obsolete (in retail). Video casettes are dead - not in the sense that you cannot find them anywhere - but in the sense that they are becoming much harder to find since retailers are dropping it as a format.
Gates is right (Score:3, Interesting)
The format wars are going to fall at the feet of the codec wars. It is obvious, given the cost savings, that the consumer will migrate to the easiest to maintain and cheapest to upgrade system he can get.
If the consumer can drop his receiver, dvd player, dvr, cd player, tape deck, laser disc player, hdvcr player and all the rest of the mess current taking up a wall in his home theater and replace it all with one box that does everything, and is software upgradable (remember that THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY TO ROLL OUT TOMORROW!) he will do so.
The new hub will be a media PC, esentially (though not really like the ones you see now). Give people this option, and they will go for it in a heartbeat.
The problem is that we have competing standards for streaming/downloading media. That needs to change, but doesn't look like it will for a while.
The real question isn't "Is Bill Gates right?" but rather "How can we get Linux to fill a niche in this new media economy?"
So, do you know any open source groups pushing for a standardization of the online media purchasing commerce? If not, we need to ask ourselves why not? This is gonna be HUGE, and it would sure be nice if I didn't need to have specific hardware or software to buy somthing from iTunes, for example. There should be a standard client protocol that I can connect to any standards compliant eStore with and browse/purchase media.
backup (Score:3, Funny)
do you know how long it'll take to backup all my porn at that rate?!!
How times have changed (Score:4, Insightful)
Bill G: 640k ought to be enough for anybody.
2004:
Bill G: In 10 years, 4.7 GB won't be enough for anybody.
Thing is, this time around I think he's more likely to be right.
Re:How times have changed (Score:3, Informative)
He's right. (Score:3, Insightful)
DVD will be obsolete in two or three years, not ten. CD's been obsolete for at least ten; they're still in use. 3.5 inch 1.44 meg floppies have been obsolete for twenty, but they're still on there. Hell, damn near every technology in a computer is 'obsolete;' doesn't mean they're not still in use.
It won't happen soon (Score:4, Insightful)
Not everyone has or can get broadband. There's no chance of broadband at the summer cottage. There's no broadband available in my car as I'm driving cross country. Yet, at the cottage, I can have a TV and DVD player, and in the car I can get an LCD/DVD player to occupy the kids as I'm driving.
His conclusion may be right, but the path wrong (Score:3, Interesting)
* Studios shift all home video to super-protected HDTV DVD.
* Consumers dislike restrictions placed on HDTV DVD's, format tanks.
* As there are no new movies on DVD - DVD is dead.
But not in a good way....
On the other hand people seem to have lived with DVD restrictions, so perhaps they'll be fine with future limitations. Though stuff like HDCP might make some people rather angry as older expensive stuff fails to work with the new standard.
A different take (Score:3, Insightful)
VoD may be the next great thing, and this seems to be what Mr. Gates was hinting at. I cannot speak for the direction the VoD market is going. However, I think that regardless of the state of VoD, DVD's (we we know them) will be going the way of the VHS tape well within 10 years.
When DVD's were introduced, they were lightyears ahead of any other consumer-level media. However, the CRT TV's had changed little in 50 years -- adding color to the mainstream market in the early 60's and introducing incremental changes in quality throughout, such as Sony's Trinitron technology. Still, none of these incremental quality boosts were earth-shattering. Consumer-level CRT's were inherently limited in visual quality.
With the (post-DVD) advent of consumer-land LCD's and Plasma displays, the visual limitations of DVD's are becoming more apparent. High-quality displays show MPEG artifacting that normally wouldn't be seen in older CRT TV's. Furthermore, when compared against HDTV broadcasts, DVD's don't look quite as good as they did next to VHS movies.
The next nail in the coffin is the speed and price of computer technology. DVD players can be had for under $50. The manufacture of cheap DVD players is a reality, partly because of the economies of scale, but also in part, due to our ability to make the IC components in the players cheaper and smaller. We have the technology to make a high definition DVD, using better compression algorithms (both in terms of how much data they can compress, and the overall visual quality of the video) that require greater computing horsepower. This technology can be produced at a cost similar to the current cost of DVD players -- especially after a widespread market adoption over a few years. We are also able to produce players that use a media similar to DVD (optical media sharing the same dimensions and material to its DVD coutnerpart) which have a far greater data density, such as the blue-ray DVD's.
Assuming backwards compatibility with the traditional DVD format, this technology could become viable within 1-2 years. In this case, the obsolescence of the DVD (in its current state) is completely reasonable and foreseeable within 10 years.
Look at DVD vs magnetic (IDE) (Score:5, Informative)
My last IDE drive purchase was last month - 250GB IDE for $169 (CompUSA, instant rebate.) This is about $0.68 per GB, compared with a marginal cost of about $0.25 for DVD (4.6GB variety).
But look at my hard drive purchase history:ACG is the "Annual Compound Growth" in my sample - the rate at which the GB/$ is growing annually.
Assuming an annual growth of just 1.50 (50%) is maintained, in ten years $150 will buy a 10TB drive. That's over 1000 9GB DVDs.
I think that to assume ANY storage technology currently in use today will still be in use in 10 years is a bad assumption. My analysis is therefore flawed as well; for $150 we'll probably be able to buy 100TB of ultra-fast holographic or biomechanical memory in ten years.
In ten years, the only people buying IDE drives will be the Amiga enthusiasts.
DVD will be replaced by CompactFlash, .85" HDs (Score:4, Informative)
It's unlikely any DVRW/CDRW technology will ever be truly rewritable. But as USB thumb drives increase in size and Hard Drive sizes shrink to meet MP3 player and cell phone demand, they'll be fully rewritable, smaller media than DVDs or CDs - why use anything else?
In a few years the one advantage DVDs will have over hard drives and flash memory will be the complication of copying them, which is ideal for companies trying to sell their content. This advantage will be made obsolete by 2 things:
Larger optical media, which has been mentioned here several times already.
A more effective copy protection system that works over the Internet; this same copy protection system could be used just as well for the content on any physical media, leaving the physical complications of copying it negligible.
Media or size will dictate, time is short (Score:3, Interesting)
A few things to consider are the vast sweeping changes that can happen in 10 years. Personal Computers, nay, computers at all, are very little like what they were ten years ago. The two things that will decide if this prediction is correct will be the way we store things, and the things we store.
Looking at the time, 10 years doesn't seem too long to expect a shift in technology. Consider the floppy. Very popular 10 years ago. Hell, 10 years ago CD-ROM drives weren't even guaranteed in most systems, so floppies were the assumed portable storage. Currently CD-ROM is assumed, and DVD is becoming so. I find it easy to purchase systems without floppies. To speclate that the DVD may be replaced in 10 years is not so far fetched.
The acceleration of advancing technology will probably decide whether the media of DVD is sound enough technology. The write-once, or at least write-more-finite-times-than-magnetic-media aspects of any optical media will lead to their demise before their size, is my personal prediction. Scratching, warping, and other physical weakness of the media seem to be pretty reasonable reasons to not use them forever. While I don't think they'll go away in ten years (my computer store still sells 3.5-inch floppies), they won't last forever (I cannot, however purchase a 5.25-inch floppy off the shelf).
The size of the things we store continues to grow, but that doesn't seem to be growing as fast. The sampling of sound hasn't increased the size of storage required since the introduction of the CD (in fact, thanks to compression like MP3, it's smaller), but higher-quality video has become common. What you type will rarely fill the media, but what data you generate probably can. For example, backing up other media (like your HDD) onto inexpensive optical is very common, so this might drive a larger solution. Like CDs can store multiple tunes or albums(heck, to the hundreds of tunes and many albums with MP3 compression), video storage of the future may store much more than we live with now; entire seasons or runs of television, all of the series of movies or actor's lines, every home video you've ever produced...
Not that you care, but personally, I use flash media now for most of my portable storage. It's virtually indestructable (in everyday, carry it in my pocket use). It's pretty spacious; my current 256MB USB drive is capable of holding practically my entire working environment (OS not included, but data and editors are), and larger drives are available when this no longer suffices. They're not as cheap, I'll grant you, but I got it on sale for less than a stack of CDRWs, and I've written to it more times than I could have a similar priced stack of DVD write-onces. While not replacing DVDs yet, I'll argue that these flash media are reasonable replacements for CDs; it's conceivable that a small shift in the technology or manufacture and this could replace DVDs in size, too.
I use an external HDD for the backup of my main system's HDD. Well, in reality, I typically back up all important data across multiple HDDs--either on drive sets in RAID, separate systems or servers, or both. Again, not as cheap, but faster and rewritable to a much larger degree (lots of billions of rewrites versus thousands or millions).
remember (Score:3, Insightful)
He doesn't want to share any of either. He really does believe that Microsoft deserves 100% ownership of both.
He will talk down CDs and DVDs not because he has a better alternative but because they are currently independent and do not rely exclusively on any MS product.
I know why (Score:4, Insightful)
He's a scratcher.
You know the type.
You pick up a CD/DVD of theirs off of the stack on top of their TV and notice that every single damn disc has a scratch on it.
You put it in to play/listen - it starts to skip and they're like, "Oh weird, how'd that happen?"
The worst is the scratcher-friends who craftily ask to borrow your favorite CD/DVD. (Because all of theirs are unwatch/unlistenable)
So, you're all like "sure!"
You get it back after 2 months after bugging them for weeks about it and you open up the case to find . . . SCRATCHES ALL OVER THE DAMN DISC.
And you call them on it - and they say "What? I didn't put those there! It must've been like that when you gave it to me."
Even if you obsessively carefully handle your discs, put them away when you're done and never abentmind-edly store stacks of them on sandpaper.
THEY get offended?!
Do these people have no respect for personal property?
The secret, Bill, is to just put things away when you're done with them.
Either that, or someone will invent un-scratchable coatings, which I find far more likely in the next 10 years.
technology is ready, infrastructure isn't (Score:3, Insightful)
I agree with Bill Gates that this is going to be different in ten years. By then most homes will have some form of broadband, mobile telephone networks will have been deployed that support broadband services. In other words, pretty much anywhere you go there will be some form of broadband that is good enough for high quality streaming video.
Then it is just a matter of offering the content and using the bandwidth. However, before that happens a number of legal issues will need to be resolved. Also there will need to be some standards (as in not owned by Microsoft or any other company). And finally the media companies will need to get involved. All that can happen in ten years but I don't see much happening yet.
The media companies are still clutching to their existing revenue streams. At the same time they seem to be only frustrating attempts to move beyond physisical media. It took a company like Apple to convince the whole industry that online content is a viable revenue stream and that was only this year. The same could happen for other content then audio in a few years.
Given open, widely supported standards and given the wide availability of networks this could happen. The latter is on schedule to being solved be 2014. However, ten years is a very short time to change an industry that depends on proprietary, closed standards.
"100,000 channels and nothing on" (Score:3, Funny)
And all broadcast is converting to HDTV by 2007... (Score:3, Funny)
Yeah, right. That's what they told us a few years ago in order to get all that free bandwidth. We need the subsidy to convert to HDTV so we'll be ahead of evil foreign competition (there's an oxymoron for you: "subsidized capitalism").
Yawn. I predict BILL GATES will become obsolete long before DVDs (Oh, wait, it's already happened)...
Re:Cheaper (Score:2)
Not today but dvd-rs didn't cost cents when they came out. Who's to say what technology will be here 10 years from now and how much it will cost?
I think it's a safe bet to say that dvds will not be the best thing available but will still be in use. Look at CDRs. DVDs are vastly superior to CDs (which were the top 10 years ago) but cds have done anything but vanish.
I'm sure there will be something better around for about the same price
Re:Cheaper (Score:3, Funny)
Hundreds of them, but it was still cents. ;)
Re:Cheaper (Score:2)
Re:DVD had a lot of benefits over its predecessor (Score:4, Insightful)
Any display system for which DVD is not "good enough" (in terms of image/sound quality) isn't going to deliver much added value if it's just plunked into the corner of Joe Sixpack's living room. To get an experience that significantly improves upon existing high-end TV sets, you need a room specifically designed as a home theater. That sets a very high barrier to adoption.