IBM Says Polymer Memory Could Be Ready By 2005 145
prostoalex writes "Polymer memory is hardly anything new, and we already had HP and Princeton announcing their prototype. In a Forbes magazine article IBM promises polymer memory that's five times cheaper than current flash memory, and expects the first devices with polymer data storage systems to be delivered possibly by 2005. IBM's Zurich Lab published this article last year with description of Millipede."
The best thing about polymer... (Score:5, Funny)
(Forecasting clueless Best Buy employees trying to sell computers.)
Re:Picasso. (Score:2)
A man walks into a bakery and asks the man at the counter, "Can you make a cake and then have it boxed up and sent someplace?"
[ clipped ]
"Excellent," says the man, "can you make me an e-shaped pie?"
"Yeah, I think so. Come back tomorrow."
So the customer leaves the bakery and comes back the next day. The baker shows him the pie.
I guess. The confused man first wants a CAKE then changes his mind instantly to desire
Flash Memory != RAM (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
Re:Flash Memory != RAM (Score:2)
I was thinking of micromechanical RELAY SWITCH type of memory would be many times cheaper and fully layerable in manufacturing. The relay switch uses an electromagnet to move a switch back and forth between two contacts. The most common application is the lowly BUZZER (very fast switching and long lifetime operation capacity). In theory, the only primary
5X Cheaper? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:5X Cheaper? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:5X Cheaper? (Score:5, Insightful)
The interesting point about the semiconductor market that makes it different from almost anything else is that it pay's to drive down the price as your cost decreases.
The reason being that the market thereby grows at a much faster rate, more than compensating the price drop. Remember Profit in $ is Unit profit * Unit.
Just look at Cell Phones as a good recent example. Industries has repeatedly learned that artificially holding the price high kills you. If interested in more info Google Clayton Christenson + Disruptive technologies.
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:5X Cheaper? (Score:1)
Of course by 2005, flash memory will be cheaper. I guess the question should be: 5 times cheaper than flash *now* or when it is available?
Anything that increase the storage for the $ is great!
Recycle time? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Recycle time? (Score:1)
I'd be thinking something more like Flash RAN (random access nudity?)
Re:Recycle time? (Score:1)
No, FLESH memory.
Da dum!
Mmhmm (Score:4, Interesting)
Just checking.
Re:Mmhmm (Score:2)
Hmmm. Cheap long term storage? (Score:5, Interesting)
1. Cheaper than flash or HDs.
2. More durable than flash or HDs (or even CD/DVDs)
3. Be faster than flash/HDs/optical media.
By the time this stuff comes out, trying to beat one of the three is going to be tough - by that time all of those existing technologies will be VERY mature. I'm already able to buy hard drives for super-cheap, so logically, flash is the intended target. The question is, by the time this stuff comes out, will hard drives become so tiny, cheap, and robust, that it's not flash that is the main competitor, but magnetic hard drives?
Of course, if IBM wants to give me petabytes of super-stable long-term storage that will fit in a shoebox, and only cost me a few hundred dollars, who am I to argue? At the very least, if it can replace tape, that might be enough to ensure a place for it, assuming optical hasn't totally displaced that market by then...
Re:Hmmm. Cheap long term storage? (Score:1, Insightful)
this is 1 - 2 years' time we're talking about, not 10. granted, technology moves forward quickly, but not THAT quickly. this new tech might not be the greatest thing since sliced bread, and it probably wont deliver on all the hype (like the price), but if it is better than even one of the three other competing technologies you mentioned (and no, it probably wont be obsolete by then), that's still a good thing.
Re:Hmmm. Cheap long term storage? (Score:5, Insightful)
To capture the market, this stuff has to either be:
1. Cheaper than flash or HDs.
2. More durable than flash or HDs (or even CD/DVDs)
3. Be faster than flash/HDs/optical media.
Nope. Read The innovator's dilemma [amazon.com]. All it has to do is:
-- MarkusQ
Re:Hmmm. Cheap long term storage? (Score:4, Interesting)
As for CD-Rs and DVD-Rs, I burn a lot of them because they're so damn cheap. But I hate it. I once scraped off the surface of a CD-R coaster and almost cried at how easy the stuff flaked off. Not to mention there's no reasonable consensus as to how to properly label [slashdot.org] the damn things. I mean, you can't write on them, you can't label them...the only thing you can do is take a tiny sharpie and write on the inner circle, which doesn't do me much good. Even though there would be cost and size increases, I would love it if CDs and DVDs had caddies a la Mini Discs.
Yes, I agree these technologies are cheap and mature but I really wish there was some alternative. So, I for one welcome our new micro-millipede masters (terrible name, btw, I have centipedes in my apartment and they freak the hell out of me even though I know they're good to have around 'cause they eat other bugs).
Centipedes & millipedes (Score:2, Informative)
Didn't know the names so found this link [kaweahoaks.com], and they sure as well would also freak me out! :-)
But the page says: Centipedes require moist habitats. If they are plentiful, there may be an underlying moisture problem that should be corrected.
Just wanted to bring it to your attention!
Re:Hmmm. Cheap long term storage? (Score:4, Informative)
Millipede does have moving parts. The polymer moves under the needles, which read and write to it through heat.
They also mention that they've designed it to be resistant to external vibrations. Which implies that it could be adversely affected by some types of vibrations.
It also has an ability to be rewritten only about 100,000 times, apparently, making it not suitable as a hard disk replacement.
It seems as if this tech at least initially will be good for what IBM is saying it's good for: as a FLASH replacement, at least for some applications. It doesn't appear to be useful as a general-purpose storage device.
Hard drives aren't going bye-bye all that soon, it seems.
Re:Hmmm. Cheap long term storage? (Score:2)
HALLELUJAH brother!
I've said that so many times that I'm long-since tired of saying it.
I certainly do hate optical media myself, but I like hard drives to a limited extent. I'd be more than happy to use compactFlash for everything if it wasn't so expensive (speed isn't _much_ of an issue for 99% of my storage needs).
Re:Hmmm. Cheap long term storage? (Score:2)
Star trek (Score:1)
But now we are doing some Voyager stuff, ie polymer memory, although I think voyager had some sort of Biopolymer memory, but still, im secretly pleased by these turn of events
Re:Star trek (Score:1)
Oh yeah! (Score:5, Funny)
Oh yes! And we can call those storage device CompactFlash cards, because they're compact, made of flash memory and card sha... Hey! Wiat a second... Sounds rather familiar...
Re:Oh yeah! (Score:2)
size, cost... (Score:2)
Except that CF tops out at about 2-4GB at the moment, which is maybe enough to store a DV tape's worth of video after DVD-level mpeg compression, which costs a lot to do on a chip in real-time. Keep in mind that DVDs also compress a lot better because there's very little noise; home movies and the like have a TON of noise because the se
IPod (Score:3, Informative)
Re:IPod with this technology (Score:1)
Ram _I_ want to see. (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Ram _I_ want to see. (Score:1)
Re:Ram _I_ want to see. (Score:1)
OK here it is! [yano-el.co.jp]
Re:Ram _I_ want to see. (Score:2)
Look at the Peter Chen's Rio project (Rio, Rio-Vista...)
http://www.eecs.umich.edu/Rio/ [umich.edu]
not exactly what you want, but sort of what can be done with it.
Re:Ram _I_ want to see. (Score:2)
Why does it have to be non-volitile? Is it really that difficult to keep a rechargable backup battery along with the memory?
Batteries aren't improving at blistering rates, but off-hand, I'd say that battery capacities are doubling around/about every 4 years, which isn't to bad at all.
The problems are not
Re:Ram _I_ want to see. (Score:2)
Re:Ram _I_ want to see. (Score:1)
good article on MRAM. Thanks for the heads up.
Potato chips and IBM chips (Score:1, Offtopic)
Electronic chips get smaller in size the more manufacturers work on them while the memory gets bigger. Potato chips get smaller in size while you eat your way to the bottom of the bag and your thighs get bigger.
Mmmmm... potato chips...
Millipede Project (Score:5, Interesting)
I must say everybody in the audience was really impressed: from one side the technological aspects, bordering on nanotechnology, were very interesting. Seeing almost the same principle of vinyl discs miniaturized is really fascinating.
The other really interesting point is the impact that such a storage system will have for our systems.
Imagine, you have 10 Tb of space: what will change in the way you handle data? Probabily the first impact will be the disappearance of the deletion of files: why not keep all the old versions of a file if you have all this space? We could use it as we use packet writing on a CDRW. Or what if your iPod could store some Terabytes of data and restit to a lot more of shock (acceleration)?
The speaker made clear that the storage capacity is huge, but the performances are more or less the same of an HD from today: still the Millipede is highly parallelizable.
I think we must see these new storage technologies not merely as bigger HD, but as something different, with lot of space, but with a bit less of performance.
If you see it from a business perspective, remember that IBM sold its HD division to Hitachi about one year ago: it seems clear that they are going to concentrate themselves on new storage technologies.
Anyway, the future looks really interesting!
Science & Politics (Score:1)
IBM's Zurich Lab
Engineers, neutral by nature, do research in a neutral country.
This just has to produce an unbiased piece of evidence. Chances are, it'll produce more than one.
This is why video compression will soon not matter (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:5, Informative)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
I'm actually thinking the original poster is correct. You can't compare compression to algorithms because algs have differences in complexity. The size of a compressed file is (in all systems I know) linear in the size of the uncompressed file. If you had a compression scheme that resulted in a file whose size was logarithmic of the input, I
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:2)
I don't like your GC analogy but I'm not sure I have anythign better. I can't think of any good examples of a strictly linear gain.
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:2)
I'll check again, but I think bubble sort runs in O(N^2) time. The pseudocode is like this:
The theory being that you go through the list one item at a time, and if that item is greater than the item after it, you swap them and move on to the next item. That happens N-1 times, and since a single item will move at most N-1 times (from, say, the end
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:5, Informative)
I'm not sure about that. Uncompressed video is gigantic. Huge. An hour of uncompressed video takes up about 70 gb, assuming it's regular NTSC rez. Thus you could barely fit a movie on your 100 gig media. It's much better just to use high quality lossy compression, such as MPEG-2 or Xvid or soemthing. If you crank the bitrates high enough, there is no visible artifacting or quality loss.
I'd much rather have 10 hours of HDTV video rather than an hour of uncompressed. Uncompressed video will only be feasable once media can hold hundreds of gigabytes, rather than the 9 gigs that dual layer DVDs hold today.
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:3, Informative)
Let me see. 720x480x2 (16 bit color) = 691200 = 675kB per frame. 24 frames per second for a Hollywood movie = 15.82 MB per second. Times 3600 for an hour is 55.62 GB without sound.
Therefore, a two-hour movie is 111.2 GB without sound. If we kind on sound and compress that, for the joy of having perfect DVD-level video, I'm not far from my original estimation.
If you get greedy and desire 24-bit color, that will cost more, 166 GB per two hours.
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
What you need uncompressed for is editing video/video effects for obvious reasons.
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:4, Insightful)
When ten movies fit on one disk/whatever without compression, giving crystal-clear video, no one will think "yes, let's compress that!".
No, when that happens, everyone will think "Hey! Let's increase the framerate, increase the pixels and increase the color depth, then compress it all so we can fit 100 of these better movies on the same device!". Currently, uncompressed NTSC video is about 18MBps, or 144Mbps, which is 18 times more data than a DVD video stream (which includes audio, subtitles and control data as well), and DVDs use the old MPEG2 compression algorithm. If you see occasional compression artifacts in your DVDs, you can be sure that if they compressed to the same data rate using MPEG4, the result would be perfect.
Looking into the future, assume we double the frame rate, increase resolution to 1080 lines, increase the color depth to 4 bytes per pixel, and store full-raster data, then the video data rate increases to about 300MBps. That would make an uncompressed two-hour movie over 2TB in size. Assuming storage sizes continue to double every 18 months, 2TB disks (or whatever) should be commonly available in 15 years. To get 10 uncompressed movies you'd need 20TB, so add another 3 years or so.
OTOH, if we can get 50:1 compression, that 2TB movie becomes a 43GB movie, and your 10-movie storage device is only a year or two away (since 200GB drives are pretty cheap now).
Further, it just doesn't make sense not to compress video. There is so much redundancy that can be discarded. I mean, even stills can be compressed dramatically without degradation, and think about how much similarity there is between each video frame and the next. Good codecs like MPEG4 can achieve 100:1 compression ratios with some degradation, or 50:1 with no perceptible degradation at all, and we can probably expect that to improve.
Video will be compressed. It's just dumb not to do it.
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Your arguments aren't bad, because it's true that people will always want more, but at a certain point capacity will be a non-issue. You don't compress text files, do you, or HTML? Of course not. Capacity is huge by comparison. In the near future with MRAM or polymer it will be huge compared to current video standards.
In addition, I expect there will be at least factor you aren't considering that determines how things will go.
Namely, as with audio there will always be purists
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:2)
Namely, as with audio there will always be purists who demand perfection.
Right. So what do those audio purists do? FLAC. The same may happen with video, and video is much more compressible. Most uses will still use high-quality lossy compression, though, just as most uses of still imagery are lossily compressed now, even though available storage can certainly handle lossless compression. But for most uses there's just no point.
For that matter, there's really no point even for the purists. Have yo
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:2)
For very large media, HuffYUV would work well. It is a lossless codec primarily used for video capture. You can get about a 2:1 reduction over uncompressed. Of course, there are lossy codecs as well that
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Bandwidth matters. (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:2, Insightful)
1) Bandwidth. Even if storage increases by the factor of 20 you envision, that doesn't mean bandwidth will.
2) Would you rather not compress your video, or have better quality and more of it? Uncompressed video is RIDICULOUSLY large. 640 x 480 x 24bpp x 30fps = 221 megabits a second (27 megabytes a second) That means you can store about an hour of that in 100 GB. DVD quality is about 30:1 compression.
I don't think this would cause people to keep uncompresse
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
But let us suppose that we were to accept a small amount of lossless compression, like Huffyav. That would ease the immediate burden substantially for the near term. But I don't think compression will ultimately be necessary.
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Maybe, but my DSL certainly can't.
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:2)
Yeah, because we're absolutely sure that newer, huge storage media will be just as cheap.
We also know that video resolutions will NEVER rise above what they currently are. You know, similar to how VCR gave way to DVDs. That won't ever happen again, right?
Re:This is why video compression will soon not mat (Score:1)
Astounding leaps in storage technology (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:Astounding leaps in storage technology (Score:1)
Re:Astounding leaps in storage technology (Score:1)
It will stop when WE stop using Kazaa!
I have a PowerBook with 80GB HD and a Lacie 160GB HD and i am close to filling both even after burning nearly 20 DVD's.
1 DVD holds roughly 7 CD's worth of content, you can do the math on that.
ha (Score:2, Funny)
but will be five times more expensive in the stores
good 'ol marketing.
Dark Angel, look out! (Score:3, Interesting)
I keep thinking: I want to record something about myself for future generations that will, in one form or another, survive. Right now my best bet for that is printing onto acid-free paper and having it bound, or doing microfiche. This potentially could solve that problem!
Re:Dark Angel, look out! (Score:1)
Wasn't this supposed to be WORM? (Score:1)
All I want to know (Score:1)
Details from the article - extrapolated (Score:2)
"The research team is now building a prototype, due to be completed early next year, which deploys more than 4,000 tips working simultaneously over a 7 mm-square field. "
"Initial nanomechanical experiments done at IBM's Almaden Research Center showed that individual tips could support data
Please IBM - replace tape backup with this (Score:1)
If IBM can get this technology to back up 10TB in one small package that sells for under $100 per cartridge they will own the market for offsite storage. This sounds like a lot but it's only one order of magnitude greater than the largest tape drives around now.
Re:Please IBM - replace tape backup with this (Score:2)
Given that LTO-2 cartridges have 400 GB capacity, and the next-generation of IBM 3590 starts at 300 GB and is upgradeable capacity-wise without changing media, you get higher capacity in roughly the same space now, on a proven technology that you buy from a vendor right now.
And given that I would expect 1
Re:Please IBM - replace tape backup with this (Score:1)
I realize that spooling it gives some of the drawbacks of current tape formats but the storage would be immense. If you could stuff 300 feet of .5" polymer tape in a cartridge, you could get 45TB storage. It would remove some
Re:Please IBM - replace tape backup with this (Score:2)
Re:Please IBM - replace tape backup with this (Score:1)
Have you ever had to do offsite storage for multi-terrabytes of data every day? Not fun. Linear tape doesn't have the reliability or speed to do it easily. (Dirty/bad heads, bad tape, all night backup runs, a suitcase
Sorry about that bad editing [fixed version] (Score:3, Informative)
Some say The Information Age began with the invention of the PC. For others, it's the birth of the Internet, the development of the silicon chip or the global crisscrossing of fiber-optic cable that shifted our societal pivot from goods-production to information management.
In a couple of years, IBM's Millipede data storage system might also enter the debate.
Millipede harkens back to the days of computers gleaning informatio
Shouldn't that be... (Score:1)