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CmdrTaco
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ringbarer writes "BBC News are reporting a recent Gartner Dataquest statement that over one billion PCs have been sold worldwide. What's even more impressive is that this figure is set to double by as early as 2008."
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Don't nuke it yet. Lets link all those 1 billion coputers into a super computer, channel a lightning bolt through it, and when it shows signs of self awarness, get the thing to start making decisions for us. It's time to replace our fallible leaders with ones that can't make mistakes.
> How many of those billion are sitting in land fills?
I can account for one of them. A guy in the city I live in bought a brand new computer from a Gateway Country store. He claimed the thing was a lemon from the beginning, and eventually got sick of dealing with the service people. Instead of trying to get it repaired by a professional and sell it to help reclaim his losses, he placed the computer in the lobby of their store and took a sledge hammer and smashed it to pieces.
It made quite the news and I think people around here are nervous to buy from that store now, given the track record this one individual brought to light.
Considering all the PCs they have most likely get infected by Virii, and how Microsoft has 40 billion in cash sitting in the bank.
I'm Sure Microsoft has purchased hundreds of thousands, add in all of the other big companies and you get millions, add in schools and colleges along with government and you get hundreds of millions
> "there is a world market for maybe five computers."
LOL. I had no idea where that quote came from until I read your post, but I was about to reply with a rip on "The World According to IBM". I guess my instincts aren't too bad after all.
And how many Windows copies with those billion? Being at the top sure is nice, it is going to be years (passed 2008) when another OS will be able to make a significat gap to the MS stronghold.
Yes, somewhere in Redmond this conversation is going on:
Bill: Hey Steve, this Gartner report says that over a billion PC's have been sold! Steve: Yeah, but we've only shipped 739,428,801 Windows licenses... Bill: Damn software pirates!!
According to this interview [microsoft.com] with Gates last year, roughly 300 million users were running on some version of Window 9X as of March 2001.
Take into account how many are still in operation, how many have been canabalized to make another new computer, (sold as new?) and how many have been 'sold' to retailers as opposed to homes. How about a better number like, 'X number of computers currently in operation worldwide.'
Forget canibalization, how do they define a computer in the first place? do they define it as a Dell, an HP, or a Compaq? or do they define it as a motherboard or processor? I have 6 computers and I made all of them from parts I bought at my local computer store. Do my 6 computers count in that 1 billion?
If the total is just PCs, what about Macintoshes and other non-PC computers?
PC:= Personal Computer
Macintoshes are PCs, just as Ataris, AT&T 3b2s, etc. were. Just because they aren't WINTEL boxes doesn't mean they aren't personal computers, marketing newspeak drivel (from both the Intel and Apple camps) aside.
That having been said, your question is a good one: does that statistic include non-intel PCs such as Macintosh, and does Macintosh make up a signficant enough portion of the market for the difference to be statistically relevant?
You can bang your fist and stamp your feet, and attempt to be as pedantic as possible, but you won't change the reality. PC is short for IBM PC which today means some compatible clone of that machine.
As was driven home to me in 1981, PC, as relates to computers, has never meant *just* 'personal computer'.
On top of that, how many of these machines are obsolete? These numbers take on a completely different meaning if some 40% of these PCs are either completely obsolete, in landfills, or are in parts in some guys closet.
Honestly, Obsolete PCs should not be thrown away, but given a 'last-mile' OS (such as Linux, because it supports older hardware and would give a user at least a somewhat useful machine) and donated to third-world countries that are in dire need of any computers at all.
That's not really surprising: 90% of the population of the world has never seen a PC.
Not true. The US, Canada, UK, Ireland, Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal, Sweeden, Norway, Finland, Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong together constitute 14% of the world's population; I would be quite surprised if any of those countries had seen-a-PC rates below 95%, let alone 70%. Then, of course, there are all the people in countries like India -- sure, many of them will have never seen a PC, but many will.
It is possible that a majority of the world's population has never seen a PC, but the rate is certainly nowhere near 90%.
I've made my contribution with about 10 computers purchased, but since I've built them all myself from parts I doubt this even shows up in Gartners numbers =)
But computers these days are almost a disposable item. A PC I bought in 1998 is on the verge of obsolescence, only 4 years later. Much new software is made for the processor (233 MHz Pentium) or higher. Any further power needs, and my PC won't be able to handle the software. Either I must upgrade it or replace it. And replacing means an artifially high number sold, IMHO.
Other consumer electronics like TV's and VCR's have a much longer life expectancy.
What matters more is what percentage of the units are still running today.
Ah, the everlasting discussion... Do you need to upgrade your OS? Do you really need a newer version of the word processor you are currently running? In short, if your PC is doing everything you want to do with it, what's the point in getting a newer one?
As you might infer, I use it to play games. Games are getting to the point where they require Pentium II's. When that happens, I can no longer use the box.
I don't word process either, I write letters with old-fashioned pen and paper.
> Other consumer electronics like TV's and VCR's have a much longer life expectancy.
If they last that long. My last TV died in 4 years, my receiver in 3 years, and my last computer in 1 year (CPU went out and damaged the mainboard). The only thing worth a damn is my 1990 Oldsmobile with 211,000 miles on it:)
A PC I bought in 1998 is on the verge of obsolescence, only 4 years later.
Which is why, with proper planning, you can make yours last a long time!
What people don't understand is that obsolescence isn't a factor if you replace parts of your computer when you need to. I am willing to bet that a smokin' Mobo/CPU combo to make your computer more than adequate would run under $200. Add a $99 GeForce3 and you've got a fully up-to-date system. Nobody needs to spend $2000 every time new games are released. At least none of MY friends do.
My first computer was an XT (that's a clone of the 5151 in the picture). It was still working in 1998 when I replaced it's insides. Indeed, it had a 9600 baud modem, AOL software that worked, Word Perfect, and a hand held greyscale scanner all crammed into it's 640k RAM and 20 MB hard disk. Oh yeah, I'd also added a 3.5" floppy. The piece parts are in my closet, ready for reasembly to amuse the grandchildren 40 years from now. The box now has a 450 MHz AMD k6/2 and runs my DNS and internal ftp server. Works good, lasts a long time.
So cheer up, the more hardware M$ disables the more we have to use. I advertise to clubs I'm in that I will install a free operating system on such computers. Everytime someone posts news of the Microsoft Transmitted Disease of the day, I post the prommise. People hit the server, a 486, a few times a day after that.
So when someone buys something new to replace something old, you say it shouldn't count as a new sale? What if McDonald's followed your logic? Once someone buys a hamburger, you no longer need to market to them, because they no longer count. After all, it's not like they're paying for a whole new hamburger...
The same goes for computers. If the people building computers sell one, it counts as a sale, regardless of how many computers the customer already has.
NASA's space shuttles still runs on old 8086's [slashdot.org], it are not only the under-developed countries who are not capable (/willing) of staying up-to-date.
Apple doesn't consider Macs as being PCs. In their commercials all comparisons are made Mac to PC (although it's obvious they are just bashing Windows, even though they only say "PC")
Apple doesn't consider Macs as being PCs. In their commercials all comparisons are made Mac to PC (although it's obvious they are just bashing Windows, even though they only say "PC")
Apple may not consider their Macs as being personal computers (PCs), but just because their marketing department is trying to disassiate their product with what it is doesn't make it so.
Apple Macintoshes are personal computers.
And though their marketing bashes Windows (and Intel, since they say WINTEL), it is clearly designed to imply one must dump the hardware to be free of Microsoft, which anyone who runs FreeBSD or GNU/Linux knows to be a false implication.
Apple may not consider their Macs as being personal computers...
Funny, when you consider that the box that my Apple IIe came in years ago said "the personal computer" on all four sides. Then again, their slogan at the time was "Apple II Forever," and look how that turned out. (I still have a "stealth IIGS" made from that first IIe, another IIe, and a II+.)
That still means that less than 1/6 people own a PC (because 1 billion PCs doesn't mean that 1 billion people own PCs).
Will this figure double by 2008? I'd agree with that. Will processor speed quadruple by 2008? I wouldn't doubt it. Will lusers still be installing banzai buddy and weatherbug? All signs point to yes.
Will sys admins like me take up harder drugs? It is decidedly so.
A billion of these buggers out there and the still work like crap. How many bazillion hours have all of us wasted, reformatting hard drives, reinstalling drivers, yada, yada, yada
Hopefully maybe by 2 billion we will have a product that really servers users rather than abuse them.
I can't say i'm that suprised. Let's think about this for a moment. How long does it take for a computer to become obsolete? Depending on your need for speed, it can range anywhere from 2-4 years. So, if you've been a computer user for 8 years, you've probably owned anywhere from 2-4 computers by now. Ok, now take into account the number of computers purchased for schools, colleges, and businesses. Granted, they might not replace them as much, but companies and schools do change over all of their systems from time to time. Plus, even though many areas of the world are poor and may not have as much opportunity to buy and maintain computers, there are still over 6 billion people on the earth. Odds are, enough of them can afford a computer to top off the billion mark.
A billion? I would have thought it would be much higher by now.
Also think of the fact that even in most western countries not everybody have an PC, here in Holland most families only have 1 or 2 PC's, that's about 1/2 PC/person.
The article touches on this briefly, but this raises the pressing question of what to do with computers once their usable life has expired... I think that the average user of home computer tends to dismiss this because he or she would only dispose of a single computer every several years, at most. In aggregate, however, the effect of lead, mercury, and other computer components could be devastating.
Add to this that almost all of the computer disposal services I have seen to date are pay-based services; asking people to chip in $40-$50 to dispose of an old computer will provide too great an incentive to simply trash the thing, methinks...
I hate it when people throw their computer into the landfill.
Most of the parts in a typical computer make great tools. All those electronic parts have great uses. Capacitors, transistors, PCI bridges, memory chips, level translaters, connectors, simple logic chips, stepper motors, etc...
When I was young, my best friend and I always dreamed of taking parts other people threw away and build a robot. Used computers are a goldmine for these parts. I once took a stack of old floppy drives, cut the stepper motor/slide assembly from the case and had great axis drives for a remote control webcam driven from the parallel port. Total time to build it was the spare time at work one night.
You can't go wrong with saving old parts. When the pile gets high, you know its time to build something, not throw something out!
Fuck the use of the parts, just think of the shit that people are chucking into the earth (and therefore the water table). Out of sight out of mind maybe, but this is a good way to fuck up the environment. Y'know, the thing your kids and kids' kids need, and that we're supposed to keep in a good shape for them!
Don't forget about those little black boxes inside old photocopiers. You know those ones that take 12 volts and have this thick insulated wire on the other end that spits out nearly 10,000 volts. There is often a few of these in each copier.
These little DC power supplies have cool uses. My favorite is to ground the unit, turn it on with a 9 volt battery, stand on a chair, grab the wire, and have others watch my hair stand on end.
They can also charge up big capacitors for destroying things and making loud explosions. But they do have good value when checking long cable links for defects. I used to work at a wire manufacturing plant, and we used 7.5KV for testing wire. If there was a defect that could show up in later time, such as an entry for water, it would burn a hole in it and be flagged for scrap.
Now if I only had a good supply of old copiers. I could have boxes of gears, motors, shafts, brackets, and a complete set of hardware to build any automated machine imaginable.
When I first read this I thought "big deal". But when I thought about it, I realized that I had always assumed the number was much bigger than that.
I wouldn't have been too surprised if the story was "1 billion people have PC's in their homes", but I thought with corporations and schools that number would double.
I'd normally believe that number, given that large numbers of people have NO computers, and those who do will probably go through at least two others between now and then, given planned obsolesence.
On the other hand, since the number did come from Gartner, I'd be inclined to disbelieve it on those grounds alone. These are the same people who told me in 1992 that ATM would take over the LAN market by 1994. Anyone remember LANE?
Right! Gartner Group information is pretty suspect, IMHO. It's not that they just make the stuff up -- but they seem to query the wrong people for some of their statistics and jump to incorrect conclusions based on the data they gather.
It's pretty standard fare in the world of I.T. publications though. I see more of the same in all of the "news articles" in these free ZDNet trade publications (eWeek, Internet Week, etc.)
They interview management and project managers instead of the techies, and write sweeping blanket statements based on their (typically generalized) comments.
Actually, if I had to pull a number off of top of my head for what the PC market sales figures will be by 2008, I'd say you'll see sustained sales at roughly the same rate PCs have sold between 1996 and the present.
Just about everyone who currently owns a PC right now will either be getting rid of it, or in most cases, upgrading/replacing it with a newer model, within the next 6 years. I think the PC market is about as saturated as it's going to get. Despite other countries that might be "late to the party" finally buying PCs, you also have a *lot* of market dilution. Things that used to require a PC can be accomplished with combination devices like cellphones and PDAs. Some folks bought their last PC just to get on AOL and check email. This time around, they might do that on their phone instead.
Also, as computer power increases, it reduces the need for the home "power user" to own 3 or 4 computers. (A lot of us own at least 2 PCs because we're still trying to squeeze some usefulness out of at least one of them that's older and underpowered. It might not be capable of playing games, so we make it a dedicated CD burning station or something. Newer systems can do both at once with no real problems.)
Since only the US and a few other developed countries are really the main market for PC manufactures right now, I can only see expansion in the future. As many countries areound the world become more developed, their demand for PCs increases.
It's really not up to me to say "the number of PCs will double by 2008", but I believe that it is a distinct possibility.
Bantha poodoo. The video's going to have to go through a TV, to keep the price down in the markets you discuss. If you'd prefer to say "the number of internet capable machines will double by 2008," you've got a shot, as the internet ready PS2/Xbox/GCube/CableBox is where the battle has been for the last three years anyway, but they sure as heck won't be PCs.
The Business Software Alliance and Microsoft have issued a joint statement demanding that the Planet Earth show liscense's for all software on the 1 billion computers known to exist. Gates said he'd be more than happy to slash the price to $200/OS-copy if everyone agreed to pay in full the $200 immediately.
I could go off on a rant here, but perhaps I'll offer the Idea to The Onion:)
that's about 1/7 of the world population. That figure drops below that because most people who have bought a computer have bought two computers, we'll assume that 1/2 of all computer users have purchased two computers dropping it to 1/14 of the population. from there we'll have to consider how many people there are like me. i've gone through about 50 computers. and then we'll also centralize the computer sales to the less third world countries, since we're on slashdot we'll bitch about american centricity, from there we'll do another economic cut on the number of computer sales, cutting out the lower class citizenes who can't afford a computer, now we'll cut out the hicks who don't know what a computer is, we'll drop the middle class citizens who don't feel they need a computer. Now, by my logic, I own every computer on earth, and also the internet. The internet is half own by Al Gore, whom I contracted to design it but wouldn't sign over his IP.
How many of those billion are sitting in land fills? And how many are still in operation,
how many are still over 6 billion people own a PC (because 1 billion PCs doesn't mean that
1 billion people on the verge of obsolescence, only 4 years later. Much new software is made
for the processor (233 MHz Pentium) or higher. Any further power needs, and my PC won't be
able to make another new computer, (sold as new?) and how many Windows copies with those
billion? Being at the top sure is nice, it is going to be years (passed 2008) when another
OS will be able to handle the software. Either I must upgrade it or replace it. And
replacing means an artificially high number sold, IMHO. Other consumer electronics like TV's
and VCR's have a much longer life expectancy. What matters more is what percentage of the
world are poor and may not have as much opportunity to buy and maintain computers, there are
still in operation, how many have been cannibalized to make another new computer, (sold as
new?) and how many have been 'sold' to retailers as opposed to homes. How about a better
number like, 'X number of computers currently in operation worldwide.' That's not really
surprising: 90% of the units are still running today. That still means that less than 1/6
people own a PC . Odds are, enough of them can afford a computer to top off the billion
mark. A billion? I would have thought it would be much higher by now.
When you read the headline "One billion PCs sold", the first instinct is to think about one billion people who have PCs spread over the world. This is not the case. First off, although I don't know how many people bought PCs to contribute to that number, I doubt it was anywhere close to 1 billion. More likely is the explanation that large corporations bought large volumes of PCs for their offices/plants/etc. Secondly, the distribution of those PCs are not even. For many of the poor in third world countries, they have yet to see or use a PC let alone own one.
Although it is great that technology is reaching the masses, the 1 billion milestone is not a cause for celebration yet.
Extremely rough estimation of the actual number of people who own at least 1 pc.
Each person probably has had:
1 pc at work (which may have been replaced at least once or twice already)
2-3 pcs at home (probably 2-3 that have since been retired)
So let's say each person (or their place of business) has purchased about 5 pcs for them. That gives us about 200 million individuals. Still an impressive number. I would guess the actual number is higher than that.
If you really want to look at these numbers and figure out how many people use PCs, you would have to consider that probably 1/3 of those billion sold have been sold multiple times, replaced multiple times, or people own multiple pcs.
Ok, so 'PC' may generally refer to a desktop. But by 2008, I see a lot of computing done elsewhere. Tablets, wearables, handhelds, phone-based...maybe even certain types of implants. Will those count? Will thin computers count? They may have failed once, but if we get LCD "paper" technology, a computer you unroll and use wherever starts to seem like a great idea. Will that count?
...If it were related to something like "People on the net" or "currently in use".
With out anything like the above, it's simply an industry benchmark. It's nice to know PCs have made an indellable [sic?] mark on humanity, but means little in the long run...
The beautiful thing about PCs compared to somethign like DVD players and VCRs is that market penetration will have little effect on curbing demand. Once you have purchased one computer you are very likely to purchase another in the next 5 years. Compare that to VCRs: I have the same one I had 9 years ago, in the same time I have purchased 3 or four PC systems (notebooks etc.)
My parents have spent the first 10 years fo this study without a computer, but when they bought one, they jumped on the band wagon and have upgraded and will do so again soon. There is no other product out there...Well i 'm sure there is and I will receive a bunch of commments abotu which product experience the same phenomen, but my point remains.
Shoes have established an incredible and enviable market penetration. In fact, they are legislated as a need for the right of entry into certain establishments! (along with shirts)
The easy case is that of children, who frequently need to upgrade their footwear simply due to size.
Another easy case is simple wear and tear. If you keep slapping something on the pavement and slogging it through rainy streets, eventually you will need a new one.
However the cobblers of the world have "conspired" with marketing types and have created a "fashion industry", whereby yearly dictates go out and as a result new shoes have to be purchased.
I admit, I am somewhat immune to these trends. I still have a 6 year old macintosh dual booting into linux with enough life left in it to grade students assignments. I also only have a few pairs of shoes.
However my wife and my sister are 31337 in terms of having the latest and greatest "walking processors", or footwear.
I think that the operative phrase is "have been sold". PCs (of one form or another) have been around over 20 years. In that time I personally havre gotten through about 25 PCs (allowing for both home and office/school use) and I know people who have far exceeded that amount (18 of my 25 were in the last 8 years). With the long period of PCs availability and the tendancy for multiple ownership in both series and parrallel One billion isn't that impressive a figure.
Also what are they defining as a PC?
On the growth figures. Personally I'm with the idea of the Home PC being absorbed and integrated into other items to provide integrated home entertainment/net-access applicances. I can already send email and surf the web (in a limited fasion) from my TV. Add a word processor, telnet client and put a proper browser on it (to replace that Liberate pile of crap) and it'll do about 90% of what I use my home PC for. My Palm M100 will do the rest.
Enjoy the PC reaching 1 billion sold, folks, because if Palladium is instituted this billion will be the last.
What will be sold in the PC's place will be a neutered ueber X-Box, which can do just enough to let you play Microsoft-approved games, let you surf to Microsoft-approved sites, spend money at Microsoft-approved shops, and run Microsoft applications and Microsoft-approved applications. You will not buy these games and apps...they will be rented to you.
You will be bombarded by ads, ads, ads...pop ups, pop unders, full-screen interstitials, etc. etc. And no way will you be able to block them. Use the ueber X-Box for a TiVo type device? You won't be able to fast-forward through commercials, because THAT WOULD BE STEALING.
Does this picture of the future disturb you? We need to get loud and vocal about this because this is the fondest wet dream of the RIAA, MPAA and Microsoft, and they will have scores of lobbyists and lawyers and will 0wn the vast majority of the Senate and House. (Except Rep. Boucher)
We killed Hollings 2002, we forced Intel to put an "off" switch on its PIII unique identifiers, but we mustn't be complacent.
Microsoft getting its way with Palladium will be the final nail in the coffin of geek culture. We need to get angry, get mad, and then DO SOMETHING.
If within two years your predictions come true, that you will only be able to run MS-approved applications on MS-approved hardware on MS-approved OS I will send you the sum of $100.
However if within two years this does not come to play, you will send me $100.
Two years too soon? How about 5 years? Hell, I'll even up it to a $1,000 wager if that will make you feel better.
I'm just curious if any of the Chicken Little's in the world are willing to put some money where their mouth is.
Just like Telephones, Radio and TV. The PC(INTEL, MAC, Sparc, Whatever) is a technoligy that is becoming part of the world wide life style. It is becoming extreamly comman now for someone to have E-Mail or at least something to write papers. Having a PC is common tool now.
My only problem is the fact that the majority of the software is by one company (Microsoft). Putting aside how much I think MS stuff stinks. There is a servere danger of having One Uniform software running a complete infostructure. It can lead to more servere problems with hackers and viruses. And create the technolical equilavlant of the Irish Potato famon.
But I wouldnt suprise if in 50 years, PCs or Personal Computing electronic (I think the PC will be replaced with PDAs and the like but a PDA is still a PC) would be offed to 80% of the worlds population. With the extra 20% eather being to poor to own it, or goverment restricting them from acess, or just against technoligy.
Basically the article is saying: People like computers. Software continually needs more power to run. People upgrade their computers, and more people are buying their first system and getting onto the upgrade cycle as prices drop.
So? Who didn't know this? It's typical supply and demand... drop prices to increase the consumer base.
No, that would only be the case if there were a billion working computers that might be replaced in the next 6 years.
But then Gartner is also expecting PC's to finally get out into the rest of the world. Unfortunately, I couldn't figure out how to get to the real data, just their short announcement... As fast as the PC market has been growing in the last few years, I'd expect at least 1/3 of all the PC's to still be in use somewhere, and most of those will be replaced TWICE by 2008. That doesn't leave a whole lot out of the two billion for exponential growth of PC's in the less wealthy countries.
So it seems to me that either they're misquoting Gartner (entirely possible), or Gartner's estimate is actually rather on the pessimistic side. Of course, it's entirely possible that it's accurate - it's getting harder and harder to find real reasons to keep on replacing PC's all the time, and I think to reach much wider of a market PC's must become cheaper in third world countries and easier to use for Americans. (And maybe the third-world market is going to consist of our discarded 100-233MHz machines running Linux, which will suck for PC manufacturers and MS...)
Since the beginning of time I can account for a good 25 PCs that I have bought for myself personally and those that I have purchased for myself or had puchased for me in a working enviorment number in the 20s as well.
lowball figure of 45 brand new computers. I'm not going to assume that I am an average slashdotter in terms of consumerism but I'm sure I am not alone...
Odds are good that if you're anywhere near a metropolitan area, there's a place that will recycle your old PC. Further, in many states it's illegal to just throw an old PC out on the curb. It's not only your ethical duty, it's your legal obligation to make sure this stuff doesn't wind up landfilled.
There's several good resources on the net to help locate computer recycling centers. My favorite though, by far, are the good folks at the Alameda County Computer Recycling Center [accrc.org]. The only bad thing I can say about them is that their front page won't render under Netscape 4.7 because of bad table code.
If you're looking for a list, there's a good one buried in the shitty graphics at this site [microweb.com].
I really hope the recycle centers do what they say. I was watching Dateline, or 60 minutes or 20/20 (one of those news shows), and apparently Southeastern Asia is receiving boatloads of American used computers.
It was sickening: There were piles of computer chassis as far as the eye could see on the streets, and little pools of bubbling chemicals everywhere. The locals extract the gold from the contacts using things like nitric acid. Of course, they have no respirators, or barely any clothes for that matter. Little kids were hunched over pools of fuming chemicals trying to extract precious metals for pennies.
I really hope the recycling centers do what they claim.
I can account for 5 of those (in order of purchase)
C= 64 (Dead) Amiga 3000 (Resold through Usenet) Intel Pentium 133 MHz (Resold to a friend) Intel Pentium III 1 GHz (Main Home Computer) Intel Pentium II 433 MHz (Plays my MP3 Collection 24 by 7) Intel Pentium II 233 MHz Laptop (Flies around my house on a wireless network... controls my music program remotely)
Considering the trouble PC makers are in right now, and that analysts now consider the PC market to be "saturated," I really can not see how they can predict a billion more machines to be sold in as little as 6 years. Also, consider that microprocessor technology has now leapfrogged ahead of software developers, and we no longer need the latest multighz processors to do what we do on a normal basis. Back when I purchased my first 100mhz pentium system, right out of the box I wished I had the smoking 166, because almost EVERY application would be more responsive run on it. Now, I have a 2 year old 700 mhz athlon, which I am every bit as happy with now as I was when I first put the system together. I forsee this system lasting much longer than my first system, since my first system at two years old was almost unbearably sluggish. I really doubt that the current "saturation point" we are at can sustain the required 166 MILLION PCS SOLD PER YEAR required to meet the next billion mark. And if this is sustainable, let me go invest in some DELL stock. -k
rubbish (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:rubbish (Score:3, Funny)
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Gateway (Score:5, Funny)
I can account for one of them. A guy in the city I live in bought a brand new computer from a Gateway Country store. He claimed the thing was a lemon from the beginning, and eventually got sick of dealing with the service people. Instead of trying to get it repaired by a professional and sell it to help reclaim his losses, he placed the computer in the lobby of their store and took a sledge hammer and smashed it to pieces.
It made quite the news and I think people around here are nervous to buy from that store now, given the track record this one individual brought to light.
Re:Gateway sledgehammer url (Score:3, Informative)
http://www.wisinfo.com/postcrescent/news/archive/
(i usually post AC to prevent any whoring, but I am sick and tired of those "it's been 20 seconds since you last posted" messages)
Re:Gateway sledgehammer url (Score:2)
http://www.wisinfo.com/postcrescent/news/archive/
Looks real all right. See these also...
http://www.wisinfo.com/postcrescent/news/archive/
Or...
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/54/24733.htm
Or more on Google...
http://www.google.com/search?q=gateway%20sledgeha
How many did Microsoft buy? (Score:3, Insightful)
Considering all the PCs they have most likely get infected by Virii, and how Microsoft has 40 billion in cash sitting in the bank.
I'm Sure Microsoft has purchased hundreds of thousands, add in all of the other big companies and you get millions, add in schools and colleges along with government and you get hundreds of millions
That can't be! (Score:4, Funny)
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Re:That can't be! (Score:1)
Re:That can't be! (Score:1)
Re:That can't be! (Score:2)
LOL. I had no idea where that quote came from until I read your post, but I was about to reply with a rip on "The World According to IBM". I guess my instincts aren't too bad after all.
I want to see a mainframe in every living room!
Re:That can't be! (Score:3, Insightful)
As others have pointed out, that was Watson of IBM. Given we're talking 1943, it's not as absurd as this one (my personal favorite):
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" Ken Olson, founder of DEC, 1977
Re:That can't be! (Score:2)
"Personally, I find wealth to be repulsive." - Bill Gates, 1974
"The PC based Unix market is saturated - there's no reason to duplicate Minix" - Linus Torvalds, 1990
"I can't decide between porn and independent music" - Britney Spears, to her High School Career advisor.
"I feel like I'm in the best shape of my life" - Stephen King, shortly before dying in his Maine Home
"The last thing the music industry needs is another bitter female singer" - Alanis Morrisette, Shortly before recording the hit single "Ironic"
One billion computer.. (Score:2, Interesting)
dam(U)
Re:One billion computer.. (Score:1)
Re:One billion computer.. (Score:5, Funny)
Bill: Hey Steve, this Gartner report says that over a billion PC's have been sold!
Steve: Yeah, but we've only shipped 739,428,801 Windows licenses...
Bill: Damn software pirates!!
Except ... (Score:1)
Re:One billion computer.. (Score:2, Interesting)
Only a billion? (Score:4, Funny)
And I've got parts from at least three-quarters of them hidden away in the spare bedroom closet.
Sigh. My girlfriend has the patience of a saint.
--saint
Irrelevant numbers (Score:1)
Re:Irrelevant numbers (Score:2, Interesting)
What about Macs, not just PCs? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:What about Macs, not just PCs? (Score:3, Informative)
PC
Macintoshes are PCs, just as Ataris, AT&T 3b2s, etc. were. Just because they aren't WINTEL boxes doesn't mean they aren't personal computers, marketing newspeak drivel (from both the Intel and Apple camps) aside.
That having been said, your question is a good one: does that statistic include non-intel PCs such as Macintosh, and does Macintosh make up a signficant enough portion of the market for the difference to be statistically relevant?
Re:What about Macs, not just PCs? (Score:2, Insightful)
You can bang your fist and stamp your feet, and attempt to be as pedantic as possible, but you won't change the reality. PC is short for IBM PC which today means some compatible clone of that machine.
As was driven home to me in 1981, PC, as relates to computers, has never meant *just* 'personal computer'.
A.
Re:What about Macs, not just PCs? (Score:2, Funny)
Steve Jobs is Jealous... (Score:2, Funny)
One billion iMacs served.
Stop the press! (Score:2)
The only problem is that most of these new machines contain a copy of M$ Wincrap instead of a copy of free (as in speech) software.
But, yes, there is still hope, and room for expansion...
Re:Stop the press! (Score:1)
Honestly, Obsolete PCs should not be thrown away, but given a 'last-mile' OS (such as Linux, because it supports older hardware and would give a user at least a somewhat useful machine) and donated to third-world countries that are in dire need of any computers at all.
Re:Stop the press! (Score:4, Insightful)
Not true. The US, Canada, UK, Ireland, Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal, Sweeden, Norway, Finland, Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong together constitute 14% of the world's population; I would be quite surprised if any of those countries had seen-a-PC rates below 95%, let alone 70%. Then, of course, there are all the people in countries like India -- sure, many of them will have never seen a PC, but many will.
It is possible that a majority of the world's population has never seen a PC, but the rate is certainly nowhere near 90%.
Well... (Score:1)
Re:Well... (Score:1)
Wow.. (Score:1, Redundant)
Imagine (Score:1, Redundant)
Yes, abillion served (Score:4, Insightful)
Other consumer electronics like TV's and VCR's have a much longer life expectancy.
What matters more is what percentage of the units are still running today.
Re:Yes, abillion served (Score:1, Troll)
Re:Yes, a billion served (Score:1)
As you might infer, I use it to play games. Games are getting to the point where they require Pentium II's. When that happens, I can no longer use the box.
I don't word process either, I write letters with old-fashioned pen and paper.
Re:Yes, abillion served (Score:2)
If they last that long. My last TV died in 4 years, my receiver in 3 years, and my last computer in 1 year (CPU went out and damaged the mainboard). The only thing worth a damn is my 1990 Oldsmobile with 211,000 miles on it
Re:Yes, abillion served (Score:2)
Which is why, with proper planning, you can make yours last a long time!
What people don't understand is that obsolescence isn't a factor if you replace parts of your computer when you need to. I am willing to bet that a smokin' Mobo/CPU combo to make your computer more than adequate would run under $200. Add a $99 GeForce3 and you've got a fully up-to-date system. Nobody needs to spend $2000 every time new games are released. At least none of MY friends do.
still going (Score:2)
So cheer up, the more hardware M$ disables the more we have to use. I advertise to clubs I'm in that I will install a free operating system on such computers. Everytime someone posts news of the Microsoft Transmitted Disease of the day, I post the prommise. People hit the server, a 486, a few times a day after that.
Re:Yes, abillion served (Score:2)
The same goes for computers. If the people building computers sell one, it counts as a sale, regardless of how many computers the customer already has.
Re:Obsolete? Not everywhere (Score:1)
And how many actually make it to these places?
Thousands? That's a small percentage.
And the Western hemisphere is where the vast majority of new PC's are sold.
Re:Obsolete? Not everywhere (Score:1)
Does this figure counts the Macs (Score:1)
Re:Does this figure counts the Macs (Score:2)
Re:Does this figure counts the Macs (Score:2)
Apple may not consider their Macs as being personal computers (PCs), but just because their marketing department is trying to disassiate their product with what it is doesn't make it so.
Apple Macintoshes are personal computers.
And though their marketing bashes Windows (and Intel, since they say WINTEL), it is clearly designed to imply one must dump the hardware to be free of Microsoft, which anyone who runs FreeBSD or GNU/Linux knows to be a false implication.
Re:Does this figure counts the Macs (Score:2)
Funny, when you consider that the box that my Apple IIe came in years ago said "the personal computer" on all four sides. Then again, their slogan at the time was "Apple II Forever," and look how that turned out. (I still have a "stealth IIGS" made from that first IIe, another IIe, and a II+.)
Hmm... (Score:1)
Will this figure double by 2008? I'd agree with that. Will processor speed quadruple by 2008? I wouldn't doubt it. Will lusers still be installing banzai buddy and weatherbug? All signs point to yes.
Will sys admins like me take up harder drugs? It is decidedly so.
So when do we get it right??? (Score:1)
Hopefully maybe by 2 billion we will have a product that really servers users rather than abuse them.
Re:So when do we get it right??? (Score:1)
*insert Steve Jobs marketing talk*
Just hold on a little longer! It's comming
Not really a surprise (Score:1)
Plus, even though many areas of the world are poor and may not have as much opportunity to buy and maintain computers, there are still over 6 billion people on the earth. Odds are, enough of them can afford a computer to top off the billion mark.
A billion? I would have thought it would be much higher by now.
Re:Not really a surprise (Score:1)
Opportunity (Score:2, Funny)
Old Computers / Disposal (Score:3, Interesting)
Add to this that almost all of the computer disposal services I have seen to date are pay-based services; asking people to chip in $40-$50 to dispose of an old computer will provide too great an incentive to simply trash the thing, methinks...
Re:Old Computers / Disposal (Score:4, Interesting)
Most of the parts in a typical computer make great tools. All those electronic parts have great uses. Capacitors, transistors, PCI bridges, memory chips, level translaters, connectors, simple logic chips, stepper motors, etc...
When I was young, my best friend and I always dreamed of taking parts other people threw away and build a robot. Used computers are a goldmine for these parts. I once took a stack of old floppy drives, cut the stepper motor/slide assembly from the case and had great axis drives for a remote control webcam driven from the parallel port. Total time to build it was the spare time at work one night.
You can't go wrong with saving old parts. When the pile gets high, you know its time to build something, not throw something out!
Re:Old Computers / Disposal (Score:2)
Tom.
Re:Old Computers / Disposal (Score:2)
These little DC power supplies have cool uses. My favorite is to ground the unit, turn it on with a 9 volt battery, stand on a chair, grab the wire, and have others watch my hair stand on end.
They can also charge up big capacitors for destroying things and making loud explosions. But they do have good value when checking long cable links for defects. I used to work at a wire manufacturing plant, and we used 7.5KV for testing wire. If there was a defect that could show up in later time, such as an entry for water, it would burn a hole in it and be flagged for scrap.
Now if I only had a good supply of old copiers. I could have boxes of gears, motors, shafts, brackets, and a complete set of hardware to build any automated machine imaginable.
I'm surprised (Score:2, Interesting)
I wouldn't have been too surprised if the story was "1 billion people have PC's in their homes", but I thought with corporations and schools that number would double.
Oh well, that's one less delusion for me I guess.
doubling by 2008? (Score:3, Insightful)
On the other hand, since the number did come from Gartner, I'd be inclined to disbelieve it on those grounds alone. These are the same people who told me in 1992 that ATM would take over the LAN market by 1994. Anyone remember LANE?
Re:doubling by 2008? (Score:2)
It's pretty standard fare in the world of I.T. publications though. I see more of the same in all of the "news articles" in these free ZDNet trade publications (eWeek, Internet Week, etc.)
They interview management and project managers instead of the techies, and write sweeping blanket statements based on their (typically generalized) comments.
Actually, if I had to pull a number off of top of my head for what the PC market sales figures will be by 2008, I'd say you'll see sustained sales at roughly the same rate PCs have sold between 1996 and the present.
Just about everyone who currently owns a PC right now will either be getting rid of it, or in most cases, upgrading/replacing it with a newer model, within the next 6 years. I think the PC market is about as saturated as it's going to get. Despite other countries that might be "late to the party" finally buying PCs, you also have a *lot* of market dilution. Things that used to require a PC can be accomplished with combination devices like cellphones and PDAs. Some folks bought their last PC just to get on AOL and check email. This time around, they might do that on their phone instead.
Also, as computer power increases, it reduces the need for the home "power user" to own 3 or 4 computers. (A lot of us own at least 2 PCs because we're still trying to squeeze some usefulness out of at least one of them that's older and underpowered. It might not be capable of playing games, so we make it a dedicated CD burning station or something. Newer systems can do both at once with no real problems.)
How many with Windows ? (Score:1)
Disco records up 80% (Score:4, Funny)
"Ayyyyyy"
I seriously doubt we'll be seeing computer sales the way we used to in the future.
apologies to the simpsons.
Re:Disco records up 80% (Score:1)
Since only the US and a few other developed countries are really the main market for PC manufactures right now, I can only see expansion in the future. As many countries areound the world become more developed, their demand for PCs increases.
It's really not up to me to say "the number of PCs will double by 2008", but I believe that it is a distinct possibility.
Re:Disco records up 80% (Score:2)
So when can we start? I've been out of a job for FAR too long.
It's a dead industry, admit it.
Re:Disco records up 80% (Score:2)
What happens when (Score:1)
Re:What happens when (Score:4, Funny)
The Business Software Alliance and Microsoft have issued a joint statement demanding that the Planet Earth show liscense's for all software on the 1 billion computers known to exist. Gates said he'd be more than happy to slash the price to $200/OS-copy if everyone agreed to pay in full the $200 immediately.
I could go off on a rant here, but perhaps I'll offer the Idea to The Onion:)
The number isn't that impressive (Score:1)
The real question is (Score:1)
and on related news.. (Score:2, Funny)
Just a thought... (Score:1, Redundant)
This number is misleading...Still work to be done. (Score:4, Informative)
Although it is great that technology is reaching the masses, the 1 billion milestone is not a cause for celebration yet.
Re:This number is misleading...Still work to be do (Score:2)
Each person probably has had:
1 pc at work (which may have been replaced at least once or twice already)
2-3 pcs at home (probably 2-3 that have since been retired)
So let's say each person (or their place of business) has purchased about 5 pcs for them. That gives us about 200 million individuals. Still an impressive number. I would guess the actual number is higher than that.
If you really want to look at these numbers and figure out how many people use PCs, you would have to consider that probably 1/3 of those billion sold have been sold multiple times, replaced multiple times, or people own multiple pcs.
Where would you like to go today? (Score:1)
1 billion x 25% (Being very conservative) =
250,000,000
250,000,000 x $100 per license (Saying your average person only bought one OS license in the last 15 years) =
25,000,000,000
25,000,000,000 x
2,500,000
Sell my soul for 2.5 Mil? What the hell!
What is a 'computer'? (Score:2)
Hm (Score:2, Interesting)
PCs sold with DRM: Zero
I'm just saying.
One billion computers ... (Score:2)
This would be a more siginifigant number... (Score:1)
With out anything like the above, it's simply an industry benchmark. It's nice to know PCs have made an indellable [sic?] mark on humanity, but means little in the long run...
Article distorts reality (Score:1)
market penetration (Score:3, Offtopic)
My parents have spent the first 10 years fo this study without a computer, but when they bought one, they jumped on the band wagon and have upgraded and will do so again soon. There is no other product out there...Well i 'm sure there is and I will receive a bunch of commments abotu which product experience the same phenomen, but my point remains.
Shoes. And Hand bags. (Score:5, Funny)
The easy case is that of children, who frequently need to upgrade their footwear simply due to size.
Another easy case is simple wear and tear. If you keep slapping something on the pavement and slogging it through rainy streets, eventually you will need a new one.
However the cobblers of the world have "conspired" with marketing types and have created a "fashion industry", whereby yearly dictates go out and as a result new shoes have to be purchased.
I admit, I am somewhat immune to these trends. I still have a 6 year old macintosh dual booting into linux with enough life left in it to grade students assignments. I also only have a few pairs of shoes.
However my wife and my sister are 31337 in terms of having the latest and greatest "walking processors", or footwear.
And don't get me started on handbags!
Operative phrase (Score:1)
Also what are they defining as a PC?
On the growth figures. Personally I'm with the idea of the Home PC being absorbed and integrated into other items to provide integrated home entertainment/net-access applicances. I can already send email and surf the web (in a limited fasion) from my TV. Add a word processor, telnet client and put a proper browser on it (to replace that Liberate pile of crap) and it'll do about 90% of what I use my home PC for. My Palm M100 will do the rest.
Stephen
The last Billion computers... (Score:5, Interesting)
What will be sold in the PC's place will be a neutered ueber X-Box, which can do just enough to let you play Microsoft-approved games, let you surf to Microsoft-approved sites, spend money at Microsoft-approved shops, and run Microsoft applications and Microsoft-approved applications. You will not buy these games and apps...they will be rented to you.
You will be bombarded by ads, ads, ads...pop ups, pop unders, full-screen interstitials, etc. etc. And no way will you be able to block them. Use the ueber X-Box for a TiVo type device? You won't be able to fast-forward through commercials, because THAT WOULD BE STEALING.
Does this picture of the future disturb you? We need to get loud and vocal about this because this is the fondest wet dream of the RIAA, MPAA and Microsoft, and they will have scores of lobbyists and lawyers and will 0wn the vast majority of the Senate and House. (Except Rep. Boucher)
We killed Hollings 2002, we forced Intel to put an "off" switch on its PIII unique identifiers, but we mustn't be complacent.
Microsoft getting its way with Palladium will be the final nail in the coffin of geek culture. We need to get angry, get mad, and then DO SOMETHING.
Re: (Score:2)
My offer (Score:2)
If within two years your predictions come true, that you will only be able to run MS-approved applications on MS-approved hardware on MS-approved OS I will send you the sum of $100.
However if within two years this does not come to play, you will send me $100.
Two years too soon? How about 5 years? Hell, I'll even up it to a $1,000 wager if that will make you feel better.
I'm just curious if any of the Chicken Little's in the world are willing to put some money where their mouth is.
Re:My offer (Score:2)
Re:My offer (Score:2)
Well is it really that suprising? (Score:2)
My only problem is the fact that the majority of the software is by one company (Microsoft). Putting aside how much I think MS stuff stinks. There is a servere danger of having One Uniform software running a complete infostructure. It can lead to more servere problems with hackers and viruses. And create the technolical equilavlant of the Irish Potato famon.
But I wouldnt suprise if in 50 years, PCs or Personal Computing electronic (I think the PC will be replaced with PDAs and the like but a PDA is still a PC) would be offed to 80% of the worlds population. With the extra 20% eather being to poor to own it, or goverment restricting them from acess, or just against technoligy.
Why is this so shocking? (Score:2)
People like computers.
Software continually needs more power to run.
People upgrade their computers, and more people are buying their first system and getting onto the upgrade cycle as prices drop.
So? Who didn't know this? It's typical supply and demand... drop prices to increase the consumer base.
Six years to double??? (Score:2)
Doesn't this suggest that, on the average, people aren't going to be replacing their computers any sooner than every six years?
Re:Six years to double??? (Score:2)
Those first 10 years may not be huge, but still take a little time to catch up to.
Re:Six years to double??? (Score:3, Insightful)
But then Gartner is also expecting PC's to finally get out into the rest of the world. Unfortunately, I couldn't figure out how to get to the real data, just their short announcement... As fast as the PC market has been growing in the last few years, I'd expect at least 1/3 of all the PC's to still be in use somewhere, and most of those will be replaced TWICE by 2008. That doesn't leave a whole lot out of the two billion for exponential growth of PC's in the less wealthy countries.
So it seems to me that either they're misquoting Gartner (entirely possible), or Gartner's estimate is actually rather on the pessimistic side. Of course, it's entirely possible that it's accurate - it's getting harder and harder to find real reasons to keep on replacing PC's all the time, and I think to reach much wider of a market PC's must become cheaper in third world countries and easier to use for Americans. (And maybe the third-world market is going to consist of our discarded 100-233MHz machines running Linux, which will suck for PC manufacturers and MS...)
How many can Slashdot users account for? (Score:2)
lowball figure of 45 brand new computers. I'm not going to assume that I am an average slashdotter in terms of consumerism but I'm sure I am not alone...
Re:How many can Slashdot users account for? (Score:2)
That said, I only have 2 over the last 3 years -- given Gnome 2 I think I can keep it at that for another 2 years.
Computer Recycling resources (Score:2)
Odds are good that if you're anywhere near a metropolitan area, there's a place that will recycle your old PC. Further, in many states it's illegal to just throw an old PC out on the curb. It's not only your ethical duty, it's your legal obligation to make sure this stuff doesn't wind up landfilled.
There's several good resources on the net to help locate computer recycling centers. My favorite though, by far, are the good folks at the Alameda County Computer Recycling Center [accrc.org]. The only bad thing I can say about them is that their front page won't render under Netscape 4.7 because of bad table code.
If you're looking for a list, there's a good one buried in the shitty graphics at this site [microweb.com].
Re:Computer Recycling resources (Score:2)
It was sickening: There were piles of computer chassis as far as the eye could see on the streets, and little pools of bubbling chemicals everywhere. The locals extract the gold from the contacts using things like nitric acid. Of course, they have no respirators, or barely any clothes for that matter. Little kids were hunched over pools of fuming chemicals trying to extract precious metals for pennies.
I really hope the recycling centers do what they claim.
An alternative take on this.... (Score:2)
Tom
Five (Score:2)
C= 64 (Dead)
Amiga 3000 (Resold through Usenet)
Intel Pentium 133 MHz (Resold to a friend)
Intel Pentium III 1 GHz (Main Home Computer)
Intel Pentium II 433 MHz (Plays my MP3 Collection 24 by 7)
Intel Pentium II 233 MHz Laptop (Flies around my house on a wireless network... controls my music program remotely)
A Billion more? (Score:2, Interesting)
-k