Why Morgan Stanley Is Betting That Tesla Will Kill Your Power Company 502
Jason Koebler (3528235) writes One major investment giant has now released three separate reports arguing that Tesla Motors is going to help kill power companies off altogether. Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley stirred up controversy when it released a report that suggested that the increasing viability of consumer solar, paired with better battery technology—that allows people to generate, and store, their own electricity—could send the decades-old utility industry into a death spiral. Then, the firm released another one. Now, it's tripling down on the idea with yet another report that spells out how Tesla and home solar will "disrupt" utilities.
Re:Wouldn't electric cars have the opposite effect (Score:5, Informative)
From your link:
Solar Energy Comparison with Fossil Fuels
By comparison, solar power is still the clear winner, according to ecology.com, in terms of being more environmentally friendly. When solar power generation is matched against fossil fuel-based energy production, solar is less damaging to the earth. Even the dangers that are presented by solar power are found as often, or more so, in the by-products of fossil fuels, and there is no escaping the fact that a solar panel can provide as much as 20 years of power generation for a single carbon investment of manufacturing the system, which cannot be duplicated by any other commonly used type of energy production, other than wind system
Read more : http://www.ehow.com/list_63278... [ehow.com]
Re:Wouldn't electric cars have the opposite effect (Score:5, Informative)
In Australia ATM, a dodgy deal with the monopoly owners of the grid's "poles and wires" has enabled and encouraged a massive over investment. Causing prices to rise for just about everyone. At the same time, in response to recent economic woes, the government was offering large subsidies to residential investment in solar panels.
As I travel around our suburbs now, solar is everywhere. And there is actually talk about the grid going into a death spiral. Their customers are reacting to rising prices by installing more solar arrays, even though the government subsidies have ended. There's a good chance that some of the over investment in the grid will never be needed at all.
Re:Good, I say (Score:3, Informative)
Little known fact electricity running through wires degrades the wires and the protective jacket on them.
Wires from a home built in the 1970's are often so brittle that they crumble. not just the jacket coatings but the copper itself. This is due to heat. Heat comes from resistance.
As you pass electricity through the wires they heat up and cool off. then you have summer heat, and wind storms, and eventually you get cables that snap. but before they snap they are discharging electricity into the air and anything around them.
Copper lasts longer than Aluminum. But in time both wear out. The bigger the cable and the lower the load the longer it lasts.
So yes the system is dated and fragile. Like bridges wires only get upgraded and replaced after they cause problems or fall down.
Re:Good, I say (Score:5, Informative)
My house has wires from '52, not quite as old, but close enough. The sheathing around the wires is extremely brittle and will crack and fall apart if moved. If left in place in the wall it is fine. What absolutely does not crack and crumble is the copper wire itself. The plastics and polymers used as sheathing around wires has improved dramatically over the years and would most likely last a lot longer now. The conductors themselves are about the same and last a very very long time.
Re:Small-scale, real-time. (Score:5, Informative)
" When it's very hot, no wind, when it's very cold, no wind."
You must not live in a desert.
Because it's sure as fuck windy here in the southern part of the Mojave.
Re:Small-scale, real-time. (Score:4, Informative)
That's great that you believe your own bullshit. Solar is not cheaper than nuclear. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C... [wikipedia.org]
Re: Good, I say (Score:4, Informative)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Re: This explains why republicans push coal (Score:4, Informative)
The problem is that with low power LCD TVs, battery powered mobile devices, and LED lighting it's getting entirely possible to run a house with Solar power for all but Heating/cooking purposes.
We've almost flipped on efficiency where 30 years ago Manufacturing energy bills subsidized residential costs... Residential usage has gone down by 20% in REAL numbers over the last decades (energy star, laptops, mobile phones replace giant entertainment centers) while their share of the bill has gone up.
To "save business" most states have rebalanced the costs of producing electricity and Residences are picking up more than their share... Which is the easiest share to replace.. Leaving heavy industry struggling because nobody will build new heavy duty power generation for the next 50 years. Homes simply won't need that kind of power as population has leveled off and homes become an order of magnitude more efficient in another decade.
Re:Good, I say (Score:5, Informative)
It is a little known fact because it's actually quite wrong. Electricity does not degrade protective jackets, and reasonable forms of heating which is to be expected in a house also does not degrade the protective jacket or "insulation" as we like to call it.
The problem you're describing has nothing at all to do with electricity and everything to do with the choice of insulation. Older installations in many houses had wires insulated with rubber. You don't need heat or changes in temperature for rubber to become brittle and crack. Age alone will do that. Other methods used were some kind of cotton tape, fibreglass, and general nasties. Modern installations are PVC. They age quite well and don't have a problem with being brittle. They do get eaten up by UV though which is why they are usually kept out of sunlight. XLPE is another modern conductor which is quite resilient. My house built in the 40s used lead mineral sheathing as the insulator. The cable is still as good now as it was back then, unfortunately also just as toxic if you are a literal wire-licker and not just a figurative one.
Copper also does not degrade. In the presence of oxygen it will oxidise and that the layer of copper oxide then protects the copper from further degradation.
All of this ignores one big glaring mistake you made, the grid does not have a protective jacket, and the wires are not copper which all leads into the fact that there's absolutely nothing wrong with running a 100 year old electricity grid.
Now associated equipment, power poles, spacers, downcommers, fuses, transformers, protection systems, etc they all do need maintenance and periodic replacement.
Re:$107.3 Billion (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Good, I say (Score:4, Informative)
If you live in a rural location, you may have issues, but the whole grid remains stable, even if your little branch of it isn't.
I live in a major metropolitan area and in 10 years I have had my power go out twice. Once when lighting hit the feed line, shorting one phase to ground for the neighborhood out in front of the city's main Fire, Police and emergency station which houses our 911 service center, and once when they replaced the transformer in front of my home because it was leaking. I also monitor the voltages (though my UPS) and we've not had any sagging noted over the past year's worth of logs.
My point is, the grid in general is stable. That your electric delivery service provider chooses not to properly maintain their equipment does not negate that.
Re:Load of Horse Shit (Score:4, Informative)
Out of curiosity, what was the pre-subsidy and tax incentive cost, or alternatively what were those subsidies/taxes?
The installation is rated at 8.9 kW DC (7.5 kW AC) and the total cost was $65,000. I received a check from the state of California for $29,000 and a tax credit of $5,000. So my out-of-pocket cost was $31,000 . All numbers rounded and in 2003 dollars.