Report From HOPE: The State of Community Fabrication 32
Four years ago, there were around ten hackerspaces across America; today, Hackerspaces (Techshops, Makerspaces) are within driving distance of a good chunk of the population. The RepRap can be assembled for a moderate price, and those with a bit more cash to burn can get one preassembled from multiple sources. Makerfaires are held in most major cities, sites like Instructables and Hackaday are thriving, and all things "Maker" are cool. Far McKon was at HOPE 9 giving an update on how far community fabrication has come since his 2008 presentation at the The Last HOPE (mp3 of the talk), what threats lie on the horizon, and where we might find ourselves in another four years.
Update: 09/20 21:02 GMT by U L : There's an audio recording of the talk available.
Much has improved in the last four years. 3D printers for one have gone from being rare and expensive items to something you can build with a reasonable effort, or purchase for a mere arm & leg instead of your first born. The copyleft nature of the 3D printer community and active competition between folks selling them is certainly reminiscent of the early days of commercial Free Software (making things quite exciting).
Hackerspaces have spread like wildfire, encouraging cooperation and granting access to DIY manufacturing tools to the masses without forcing everyone to shell out lots of money.
McKon admits that electronics kits are only a bit more accessible than they were in 2008 — Arduino, Beagleboard, Raspberry Pi, et al are certainly welcome — but we're nowhere near the "building hardware being as easy as software" dream McKon predicted in 2008. He predicts that four years from now will see about as much incremental change; hardware is hard.
On the other hand, Laser cutters haven't really budged in cost (they were around $8000 then, and ... surprise, $8000 now). But, hey, what's your local Hackerspace for? McKon speculated that laser cutters have been produced by entrenched proprietary vendors which have no profit-motive to decrease prices. Entering the market is far more challenging than jumping into a market with open hardware participants, something echoed later in the talk when McKon noted that Open Source ideals more easily infiltrated upcoming industries than entrenched ones generally (where's my Open Source fridge?).
Software for 3D printing still sucks. OpenSCAD is workable but difficult, Blender isn't really suited for the task, and in any case the bar to generating a model that can actually be printed is way too high. During the Q&A someone mentioned that Autodesk was adding features aimed at 3D printing; McKon noted that Open Source design tools were encroaching on Autodesk et al's turf. Proprietary software packages are going to have to improve (great for their users), but Open Source development has distinct advantages that, at least in this area, are leading to ever-accelerating development. Still, he emphasized that the only way Open Source tools would win is if people contributed. So go and contribute, or else.
The Hackerspace community has spread the ideals of Free Culture into device manufacturing. McKon sees two business models: Seed and Feed. In the Feed model, you are a consumer and the device is closed. You can see this in proprietary additive printers where the extrusion material often comes in closed cartridges ala inkjet printers and the manufacturer doesn't release information on controlling the device. The Feed model prevails in the world today.
The Seed model is a mixture of DIY and peer to peer sharing of knowledge. Makerbot Industries might sell you an additive printer, but what you do with it is produce, and everything is out in the open so you can make your own repairs, source your own supplies, etc.
The Internet had the promise of expanding P2P and Seed culture, but has become more about consumption (a theme that proved prevalent at HOPE9). Home manufacturing similarly pushes us toward a producer culture; the change this may bring is not all so rosy.
Four years ago "You wouldn't pirate a car would you?" was an absurd parody of itself; now replicating an army of RPG miniatures isn't really stretching the imagination. This poses a possible threat to the revenue models of some rather profitable businesses; and thus the threat that we may see lobbying from those entities similar to what the RIAA/MPAA have done for the last decade.
The pace of innovation in open hardware might be threatened by patents in the way they have affected software: as the twenty year term seems infinite in the software world, the pace of development in the hardware world seems to have caught up. McKon especially feared a patent arms-race like we've seen with Smartphone companies leading to crippling lawsuits for everyone. Luckily, McKon reports that this certainly has not begun, but notes that a few "hey, we've got these patents and you might be violating them, thought you might want to know" letters have been received by some.
Right now Makerspaces and Maker culture are the hot thing; McKon believes that Maker culture is well on its way to the peak of inflated expectations, and that a crash is inevitable. Some funded hackerspaces may lose funding, some will disappear, device manufacturers will consolidate, etc. But, eventually things will level out to a sustainable Hackerspace population. What that level is remains to be seen, but what is known is that something is brewing.
The big change is... (Score:5, Interesting)
Who knows... This might actually do something about the balance of trade. Soon you may be able make a spoon or a door knob for less trouble than getting a Chinese one from WalMart.
Re:The big change is... (Score:4, Interesting)
If 3D printing progresses as fast in the next five years as it has in the last five, people will just skip over the "learn to weld" step and just do everything in software.
I'm waiting for high-end 3D printing to show up at Home Depot, so I can finally print my life-size Game of Thrones toilet.
Maker culture is overrated (Score:5, Interesting)
Oh, please.
I spend a lot of time at TechShop, and I'm not that impressed with "maker culture".
The RepRap is a piece of crap. Yes, the live-in-their-parents-basement crowd can make RPG figures with one. That's about all it's good for - little plastic decorative junk. Melting pieces of ABS string together can only take you so far.There are better machines at higher price points that can make working parts, but you have to spend upwards of $5000 to get anything good.
As for making electronics, that's never been easier. Custom board-making services are cheaper and easier to use than ever. (Making boards yourself using iron-on toner transfer is obsolete - the pro shops do a much better job, can do plated-through holes, and end up being cheaper than DIY jobs.) Digi-Key has almost every part in existence and can deliver in 24 hours. Good electronic CAD programs are available for free. You can even get free auto-routing. SPICE will run on most desktop computers, so you can debug analog circuits in simulation. Surface mount reflow has filtered down to the hobbyist level.
The reason more people aren't building their own electronics from parts is that you can usually buy a cheap consumer product to do whatever it is you want to do. You need both a lot of theory and assembly technique to build new electronics. Writing an iPhone app is much easier. Building your own audio system or TV to save money hasn't made economic sense since the 1960s.
TechShop has a few different groups of users. There are artists, who are usually turning out decorative stuff on the laser cutters, vinyl cutter, CNC embroidery machines, or silk-screen machines. There are pro machinists, who are doing jobs for pay on TechShop's equipment. There's a small group with the motto "designed in Silicon Valley, made in Silicon Valley", which makes little plastic iPhone stands. (As a long-time Silicon Valley resident, I see this as pathetic. The high-tech stuff comes from China and we make cheap plastic accessories for it.) There are people who are just there to be on their laptop, because it's cheaper than Starbucks. There are people working on cars. There are a few people doing live-steam model railroad builds. A few people are building robots, but the ones that are any good are from people who do robots as their day job.
It's a hobby shop. It's not about changing the world.