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'Of Course We Are In a Post-PC World,' Says Ray Ozzie 399

An anonymous reader writes "Speaking at a tech conference in Seattle this week, former Microsoft Chief Software Architect Ray Ozzie had some interesting things to say about the state of the computing industry. 'People argue about "are we in a post-PC world?" Why are we arguing? Of course we are in a post-PC world. That doesn't mean the PC dies, that just means that the scenarios that we use them in, we stop referring to them as PCs, we refer to them as other things.' Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception. 'If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future. ... It's a world of phones and pads and devices of all kinds, and our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.'"
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'Of Course We Are In a Post-PC World,' Says Ray Ozzie

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:06PM (#39294191)

    of greasy fingerprints.

  • Ruhroh (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:07PM (#39294197)

    "Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception."

    They're doomed.

    • Re:Ruhroh (Score:5, Insightful)

      by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:18PM (#39294377) Journal

      I think Microsoft as a major player in the consumer market is probably going to fade. I still think they're going to be a major player in the medium-sized business and corporate world for some time to come. But as far as consumer devices go, they're so behind Apple and Android now that I just don't really see how they'll catch up.

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Re:Ruhroh (Score:5, Interesting)

      by lgw ( 121541 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:29PM (#39294539) Journal

      "Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception."

      They're doomed.

      They may well be. It's funny - I've been reading /. since before moderation, and for many years every year was going to be "the year of Linux on the desktop - this time for sure!" Well, now that that's become more of a running joke, it might actually become true. General purpose home computers will likely revert to a hobbyist thing before too many more years, and of course Linux will dominate at that point.

      Non-hobby home PCs are fading fast., and it's really just PC gaming keeping Windows on home-built rigs today, which is a shrinking niche. The release of the Steam phone apps (even though they aren't really selling games yet) heralds the end. Once the big MMOs shift their client focus to mobile platforms (and that's coming for sure), it won't take long before there's no real point in running Windows on your home-built PC except that virtualized XP instance you use for classic games.

      • by khallow ( 566160 )

        it won't take long before there's no real point in running Windows on your home-built PC

        What's going to take its place? The mobile platforms don't have the screen real estate.

        and it's really just PC gaming keeping Windows on home-built rigs today

        There's also a lot of stuff that uses graphics. Do you really think people will fill out spreadsheets or write papers on a mobile phone?

        • by lgw ( 121541 )

          What's going to take its place? The mobile platforms don't have the screen real estate.

          The mobile platforms have plenty of screen real estate for the most popular games these days (what about Angry Birds, Farmeville, or Bejewelled requires a large screen?). The PC gaming scene these days is pretty much just ports of console games (not much Windows lock-in there), indies and flash games (likewise), and MMOs. MMOs are the last real holdout of Windows as the primary platform a game is written for.

          There's also a lot of stuff that uses graphics. Do you really think people will fill out spreadsheets or write papers on a mobile phone?

          No, of course not. They'll use a real keyboard, mouse, and monitor, plugged into a locked-down bo

          • Re:Ruhroh (Score:4, Funny)

            by Gilmoure ( 18428 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @07:38PM (#39295403) Journal

            Wait, wait, wait. Hooking things up to other things? That's totally mind blowing! I mean, I saw one of these smart phones for dum people and sure, I laughed but the idea that you could hook something in to change how you use a device, my god, that's geinus!

          • by khallow ( 566160 )

            The mobile platforms have plenty of screen real estate for the most popular games these days (what about Angry Birds, Farmeville, or Bejewelled requires a large screen?).

            These belong to specific genres of games (social and casual gaming) that don't tend to be I/O intensive. World of Warcraft is another "most popular" game for which the mobile platform is inadequate.

            No, of course not. They'll use a real keyboard, mouse, and monitor, plugged into a locked-down box the size of a mobile phone. Seen an Apple TV or Roku box?

            In other words, a neutered PC with the usual hardware that costs more than a PC with the usual hardware. And it'll have an additional mode of failure, the smart phone/pad. Currently, your PC doesn't stop working because someone stepped on your smart phone.

            Businesses are already starting the migration from desktop PCs to virtual desktops on disposable-priced terminals (with real keyboard, mouse and screen). The home market will follow soon enough (and every geek will breathe a sigh of relief).

            Again? While there is a small market for dumb terminals, a

      • Once the big MMOs shift their client focus to mobile platforms (and that's coming for sure)

        Maybe not. Immersion is big in MMO's, which means giant monitors/big screen TV's to play on.

        Also, unless everything gets dumbed down to three button mashing and menu based actions (as opposed to having 20-40 keys bound to actions), folks will still need a keyboard or similar input device.

      • by PCM2 ( 4486 )

        Non-hobby home PCs are fading fast

        Are you including laptops with that? Because I don't know anyone who doesn't have one or the other.

        Or are you not including Macs as "PCs"? (Because if you're talking about the overall market for traditional computer form factors, I think they're the same thing.)

  • by Kenja ( 541830 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:08PM (#39294205)
    "If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future."

    From what I've seen, people will not be flocking to Windows 8 of their own free will. But the "good" news is that their will has little to do with it. New computes will come with Windows 8, and no doubt there will be some software feature tie ins that will require it. Much like Vista and DirectX.
    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • by Attila Dimedici ( 1036002 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @07:05PM (#39295053)
        There are two problems for MS. First, they are not as structurally big as IBM was when IBM had their problems in the 80s. Second, MS is putting all (or most) of their eggs in the Windows 8 basket. I just cannot see Windows 8 getting much adoption in the corporate world. It does not appear to be a good environment for being productive. It seems to me to be an environment for consuming entertainment media.
        • There are two problems for MS. First, they are not as structurally big as IBM was when IBM had their problems in the 80s. Second, MS is putting all (or most) of their eggs in the Windows 8 basket. I just cannot see Windows 8 getting much adoption in the corporate world. It does not appear to be a good environment for being productive. It seems to me to be an environment for consuming entertainment media.

          There real problem is that their visionary (BG) stepped down and their business guy started running the show. It was at that point that Apple really took off. Apple made decisions that projected a vision. Microsoft made decisions to protect their own products. Now that Apple has lost their visionary and replaced him with a business guy, we will see if history repeats itself or not.

          • by Anthony Mouse ( 1927662 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @09:03PM (#39296153)

            I don't think that's really an accurate analogy. Bill Gates was a business guy. Microsoft's business model has been to identify and destroy any and all threats to Windows. It still is. The problem for them is that you can't win in the long-term when you're constantly playing defense like that. Eventually you get a competitor that you just can't kill before they become a significant player, and it all goes downhill from there.

            Apple is a different story. It's kind of hard to predict where they'll go from here, because their business model as a high-volume premium brand requires them to be continuously entering new markets. Because the old markets become commodity markets as competitors improve their products, which requires Apple to either lower their prices or lose market share. And they generally don't lower their prices, so you can see that e.g. Android has taken the pole position in the smart phone market, and is likely to take a large chunk of the tablet market within a year or two. When that happens, to stay on top, Apple has to enter a new market: Mac -> iPod -> iPhone -> iPad -> ? So what's next? And what's next after that?

            They may or may not be able to pull a couple more transitions like that off without Jobs, but it seems unlikely to continue indefinitely. In fact, what I would expect to get them sooner than their inability to make good on a product launch is that anyone of their size quickly starts accumulating powerful adversaries, telecommunications carriers, movie studios, Microsoft, etc., who notice Apple taking a huge chunk of their prospective margins and each make efforts to claw them back. I suspect Apple would have a serious problem price-wise if AT&T and Verizon both decided they were done subsidizing iOS devices, for example. And we all know what Microsoft is capable of when you threaten Windows dominance, etc.

    • by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:30PM (#39294553) Journal

      And that's fine on the PC. But when it comes to tablets and smartphones, that edge is gone. Microsoft has gone this way before when it tried to take on iPods, and the general consumer response was to reach over Zune players to grab the iPod on the shelf. Though not a perfect analogy, it also resembles Microsoft's failure at making a successful web portal. The first thing most people did when they got a new PC was to change the home page from MSN to Yahoo, and then after Yahoo had faded away, it was Google. The same goes with consoles. The whole Xbox division has swallowed who knows how much money now? And it's only been very recently that the division has even turned a profit, though certainly not enough to pay the vast investment.

    • by Nemyst ( 1383049 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @07:23PM (#39295257) Homepage

      DirectX at least has the advantage of being arguably better than the competition. Windows 8 doesn't even have that, and ironically its biggest competitor will be... Windows 7.

  • You can have my PC (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Chemisor ( 97276 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:08PM (#39294211)

    You can have my PC when you pry it out of my cold dead arms.

    • by elrous0 ( 869638 ) * on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:13PM (#39294299)

      If they want me in Apple's (or anyone else's) walled garden, someone will have to drag my bloody corpse there. And even then I'll be fighting it.

    • Did you not read the summary?

      That doesn't mean the PC dies, that just means that the scenarios that we use them in, we stop referring to them as PCs, we refer to them as other things.

    • by UnknowingFool ( 672806 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:19PM (#39294383)
      No one is coming to take your PC. What Ozzie and others are saying is that previously you needed a PC for a minimal amount of functionality like email and web surfing. Smart phones and tablets are now good enough to offer that functionality. Thus manufacturers are rushing to provide this need. Those that don't recognize this trend will not be able to take advantage.
      • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:28PM (#39294519)

        I bought a desktop yesterday, because I still want to do some of the stuff you can't do on all your newfangled devices.
        I still want to write, draw, compose, and program.
        In a word, I want to create.
        How ironic that it used to be Apple that was known for empowering the creative types.

        • If people need to create content, you can still buy a PC. No one is stopping you from doing so. What you fail to recognize is that not everyone wants to create content on every device. Some devices like tablet might be more convenient to consume content.
        • by mjwx ( 966435 )

          How ironic that it used to be Apple that was known for empowering the creative types.

          Apple never empowered creative people, creative people used whatever canvas was available.

          Apple empowered hipsters.

          There is absolutely no difference between Adobe products on Windows and the same Adobe products on OS X in the last 5 years (well except that the Adobe products on Windows performed slight better) despite what the fanboys will tell you.

      • by Tom ( 822 )

        What Ozzie and others are saying is

        marketing bullshit dressed up as wisdom. If he would be saying it in plain and simple words, everyone would immediately spot it as the trivial observation it is. He wouldn't get headlines if he would state "People now have devices besides the PC to do some tasks with that formerly only PCs could do." - well, duh. Every 6 year old knows that.

        But putting a nice trolling spin on it, and boom - your name in the headlines.

    • by Sez Zero ( 586611 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:22PM (#39294423) Journal

      In the beginning, only the nerds had PCs.

      Then they went all mainstream. Mouses. Color Monitors. Facebook. There came a time when even little old ladies had a PC.

      That's now changing. Being in a "Post-PC world" just means that the little old ladies and other consumers of digital entertainment will use some other non-PC device.

      The best part: nerds will finally be left alone with their PCs. I, for one, look forward to this wonderful "Post-PC Utopia."

      • I forsee the pre-build PC market shrinking a ton, and the custom build market growing to take up all the slack. PC nerds will have these smartphones and tablet in addition to their PCs. Grandma/Pa will just have a tablet and/or smartphone.

      • by LordLucless ( 582312 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @07:59PM (#39295589)

        To draw a transportation analogy (not cars, I'm afraid):

        The Industrial revolution was the Train Age. There was sudden availability of cheap, reliable transport across vast distances for both people and cargo. Trains came to symbolize the great advances that came with the industrial revolution, as well as enabling them. We are in a Post-Train age. That doesn't mean that we don't have any trains, it means that they're no longer the defining symbol of the age. They've faded into practical ubiquity.

        It's the same with the PC - the personal computer was the point at which the information age really took off. There was sudden access to cheap, reliable communication across vast distances. The PC has come to symbolize all the advances in the information age. When we move to a Post-PC age, it doesn't mean we won't have any, it means that they've become everyday items of practical, utilitarian uses, instead of the grand symbol they once were.

        • And oddly, Apple's already done a microcosm of this on their own.

          They came to fame with their own microcomputer (PC) range, such as the Mac. Macs are no longer their primary product, with them instead focusing on their iPod, iPad, iPhone range. But they haven't gotten rid of Macs. They're still there, still available, still doing the work- they're just not what defines the company any more.

        • by Tom ( 822 )

          We are in a Post-Train age. That doesn't mean that we don't have any trains,

          Actually, that would be exactly what it would mean if you were using the term correctly.

          We are after the "age of steam", yes. But we are not "behind trains". Being "post the X era" is not the same as being in the "post X era". It becomes obvious when you look for where the conglomerates are. being "post... the-X-era" means that the X era has passed. That's a true statement if you entered a new era, since for some reason our mental model thinks we are only in one era at a time, so entering one means leaving

    • by BryanL ( 93656 )

      I think you are missing the point. "Post-PC" does not mean the end of the personal computer. I use computing devices everyday. I have a desk top, laptop, an iPod, an iPad, an X360, a Wii, and a cell phone. Only two of those are what we commonly think of as a "PC." That is what it means to be living in a "post-PC" world: utilizing computing power in ubiquitous, non-obvious ways, away from what we think of as a "computer".

    • You can have my PC when you pry it out of my cold dead arms.

      From what I can tell, the article doesn't want to take your PC away so much as force you to start calling it something else.

      So, henceforth, I will only refer to my PC as a soupspoon.

      And my soupspoon ain't gonna be running Windows 8. Especially since I've learned that Microsoft is one of the 19 members of the "Heartland Institute" that is trying to get schools to only teach climate change in the context of "an ongoing controversy". The other membe

    • by Dahamma ( 304068 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:42PM (#39294731)

      If you are holding your PC in your arms maybe you should be considering something else after all.

  • "If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future"

    This man is a visionary!!! Ridiculous.....

  • In a world where there are no content creators, only consumers, sure. And maybe they hope for such a world. I've yet to write a book on my phone, though.
  • What then happens to Microsoft?

  • Dammit, accidentally posted this as AC just now. Reposting as myself.

    Honestly I'm fine with the idea that someday my phone will be my main computer, and that I'll "dock" it to a keyboard and monitor at home. (As long as everything is constantly backed up to some cloud storage somewhere so when eventually I drop my phone or a jackass friend pushes me in a lake, I don't lose the past few days of work!)

    But one thing I do wonder about is what this will do to the price of "real" workstation class equipment.

    • I'm sure there's a way for you to just not use the sides of a 16:9 panel.

      If a 16:9 panel costs less than the 4:3 that would fit inside it, what does it matter?

      • by nojayuk ( 567177 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:27PM (#39294491)

        Cinemas had curtains at the side of the screen that would move in and out when the projection ratio changed -- adverts used to be shown on 4:3 16mm film or 35mm slides but the main feature would be 2.35:1 or similar.

        Perhaps someone could come up with a similar curtain-type device for 16:9 screens, USB-driven perhaps, for those folks who absolutely insist on looking at a 4:3 ratio screen. It lets them view HD Youtube content in full 16:9 proportions but when they're focussed on their golden-ratio spreadsheet and don't want distractions the curtains will slide over to block the extra pixels from their sight.

        • What I want is (say) a 1920x1440 monitor (4:3 ratio). If I want to "mask" a 16:9 monitor to do that, I'll need it to be 2560x1440. One example of such a monitor is the Dell U2711, which is nearly $900!
  • ... our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.

    Isn't that just... not brilliant?

  • by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:17PM (#39294365)

    Ray Ozzie has always been good at restating the obvious, and in people paying more attention to his statements than they warrant because of who he is (or was).

    Microsoft is still the power player when it comes to PCs, but it has yet to figure out how to become more than an afterthought when it comes to the devices people are using more and more instead of PCs.

    On a side note - I'd venture to suggest that the Slashdot crowd as a group hasn't really come to terms with this sea change that's occurring in the world at large. My tech friends - and myself as well - still use a computer more than any post-PC device, while my non-tech friends are mostly on their phones or iPads during their off-work hours.

  • "PC" hardware isn't going anywhere. While many tasks will shift to smart phones and tablets the need for a full size keyboard isn't going away (at least not until computers can read your mind and do what you think for them to do). Desktop's are no longer mainstream for the masses, netbooks, notebooks, and laptops are, but workstations (desktops on steroids) will remain viable for cad applications. And then there are the servers and the gamers, power users that also require 'big iron'.
    The ATX motherboard

    • As some other commenters point out, there is definitely a need for a full-size keyboard but a dock and a keyboard will do the trick for many people. I would actually love to be able to dock my Android phone on a dock and use my keyboard and mouse. I'm looking forward to having something like a 7" tablet with some kind of high resolution, which I can dock and use on a large monitor reasonably well, maybe with a KVM switch. I think we're almost there, and I know there's plenty out there that are pretty good
  • It makes me fingers hurt to think about typing as much on a little glass screen as I do on a keyboard in a day. Sure, I could do it, but my tendons and eyes would hate me for it.
    • Also, as mentioned by Steve Jobs when asked about a touch screen laptop, it's very tiring and doesn't work. I the Apple Keyboard Dock for my iPhone / iPad (mainly for fast texting at home, I even impress the best of texters with my fast text message replies), but using the touch screen with the iDevice is a dock is tedious at best. Sure, the iPad is great for checking an email, or showing off things to customers, but it isn't a PC replacement. The iPhone is great for email on the go and the occasional ra
  • I wonder if it ever really HAD to be a PC world in the first place. In the '80 and before that, the imaginarium was abundant with wristwatch computers, tricoerders, speaking and sentient machines, robots...
    It became a "PC world" the moment wintel's suffocating embrace made everyone believe in the "end of history". It didn't happen, they're just realizing that... the bozos
  • What these business men are saying without saying it is that there's nothing "new" they can come up with for the PC. It's established technology. Sure, the graphics keep getting better, the windows look shinier, and the processors keep getting faster (while the OS's get slower), but there's nothing new they can invent for the PC. It does what it's supposed to do, and we just don't expect it to do anything more.

    The PC market is saturated. No one who doesn't have one will feel motivated to buy one anymore

  • They're fucked. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by RyuuzakiTetsuya ( 195424 ) <taiki.cox@net> on Thursday March 08, 2012 @06:33PM (#39294583)

    I've had a small epiphany.

    I think the problem with Metro, is that I don't think that regular users think like Microsoft thinks they think.

    nearly 30 years of GUI development and most everyone I know still uses full screen apps and a ridiculously cluttered desktop.

    Don't get me wrong, I think on paper metro sounds amazing, especially with how apps interact with each other. Also on paper, iOS sounds completely fucking ridiculous, with just page after page of apps and no interaction.

    However, what I find myself realizing is that metro isn't how people want to interact with computers. It doesn't offer any advantages over Windows Explorer. It's too high minded and over thought out.

    It's going to bomb.

    Badly.

    • I currently have 29 windows open. Seriously -- I just counted them. That's not counting browser tabs, and it counts each remote session as one window, not counting the windows I have open on those other machines. It's how I work. I see the Windows 8 demos with their, what is it nine? windows open simultaneously, and I wonder how that's going to work in the real world.

      But it doesn't make any difference because I'm going to leave the early adoption to someone else. Good luck with that. At work we're jus

  • by forkfail ( 228161 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @07:02PM (#39295015)

    MS may be right about the changes.

    But what is unfortunate is that they're taking away all the hammers to make everything a screwdriver, instead of adding wrenches to the tool kit.

  • by rickb928 ( 945187 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @07:28PM (#39295315) Homepage Journal

    I bought a new home last December. I got a pretty good deal, too, so there neener.

    But the process wasn't as simple as it was back in 2005. I had to come up with income and asset verification, file forms online and offline for everything, answer questions at a moment's notice, exchange offers and counteroffers as we negotiated over details, accept an appraisal while I was driving home from work, etc.

    My Android phone was all I had to work with. I could not create documents at work without having them signed from my employer. I couldn't send attachments via email. I couldn't go to several crucial websites. If not for the phone, I would not have been able to meet the deadlines.

    For that period, my Android phone was a PC.

    Now, if I bothered to work itout, a Bluetooth keyboard would make it 1000% better at that. And if I could jack it into a screen and an Ethernet jack, even better. That product is not very far in the future. The Transformer ain't it, quite, and the Motorola thing was too lame.

    But it's coming. Then I have to ditch my little notebook. the all-in-one will do that fine.

  • by roc97007 ( 608802 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @09:31PM (#39296401) Journal

    > 'If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future. ... It's a world of phones and pads and devices of all kinds, and our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.'

    But... we're already doing that. Just not with Windows.

  • by WOOFYGOOFY ( 1334993 ) on Thursday March 08, 2012 @10:36PM (#39296775)

    Let's move the goalpost on what a "post PC world" is so we can be right, shall we? . Before the NON-demise of the PC finally became evident even to the "thin client" recently turned "cloud computing " evangelists, they talked about the "post PC world" as one where desktop computers were gone and computing power and cycles were going to be "like electricity" just *there*, anywhere, at the flip of a switch along with all your data.

    Just like with the history of electrical generation, we will move from the days of big machines being present in every home to centrally localized and managed computing.

    Now that that pipe dream(or "tube dream" ala the late Sen Ted Stevens) has become self-evidently false, they' re moving the goalposts in order to be seen as having been right.

    Now to live in a post-PC world is to "have other than PCs become at all popular" (though still not as popular as PCs) .

    One supposes they are doing this so they can make the claim to their speaking engagement / consulting clients that "they're the person who predicted our post-PC world in 1999..."

    Whatever.

    You know what? The post-PC world will happen when a better experience than a great keyboard, a great pointing device and three large flat screens is available to interact with.

    Until then, people who have to create on computers rather than just consume screens of information will keep buying and loving their PCs in this "post PC world."

    Now if you want to talk about a post WINDOWS or post M$ world, then pull up a chair and we can have a civilized conversation....

  • by Tom ( 822 ) on Friday March 09, 2012 @09:06AM (#39299705) Homepage Journal

    There's so much nonsense there that doesn't have any actual content, it's all about semantics misunderstood.

    "Post" implies that something has passed. Since PCs are still around, we're not in a "post-PC" era. It really is that simple. Don't let marketing speech and idiots looking for a soundbite mess with our language.

    What these people are really meaning is that we are in an era where the PC is not the only computing option available anymore. But the invention of the automobile did not push us into a "post train era", because the two are not two things for doing the same thing. Trains are still around, even though we have other transport available.

    PCs are likely to stay around, because mobile phones, tablets, embedded computers, etc. etc. all have their own niche and while some things that were only possible on a PC until recently are now possible on other devices as well, it's nonsense to talk about "post-PC". That's just a term some fucker came up looking for a headline that would stir people up and catch their interest. On the Internet we call these people trolls.

    MS is worried and vocal about the whole thing because their ecosystem relies on the PC, and they missed the train (again). Apple never worried about which era they were in, they simply created something that people wanted. Maybe MS could try that approach for a change, build something that people really want, instead of building things they think are cool and then trying to force everyone to use it whether they want to or not.

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