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PC Era Forecasted To End In 18 Months 449

Posted by CmdrTaco
from the i-have-crystal-balls dept.
dcblogs writes "In a historic shift, shipments of smartphones, tablets and other app-enabled devices will overtake PC shipments in the next 18 months, an event that may signify the end of the PC-centric era, market research firm IDC said. IDC said worldwide shipments this year of app-enabled devices, which include smartphones and media tablets such as the iPad, will reach 284 million. In 2011, makers will ship 377 million of these devices, and in 2012, the number will reach 462 million shipments, exceeding PC shipments. In 2012, there will be 448 million PC shipments. One shipment equals one device. PC sales will continue to climb, but will no longer rule."
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PC Era Forecasted To End In 18 Months

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  • by Capt.DrumkenBum (1173011) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:24PM (#34476792)
    This will probably mean the end of Microsoft as well.
    Likely the beginning of the Year of Linux on the desktop as well.
    • First, the report talks about devices sold, not the installed base, in which PCs will have a very big lead for the foreseeable future. Phones have long sold better than PCs. Also, do you know anyone that just uses smartphones and tablets but never PCs or laptops? Didn't think so.

      • Re:Hype (Score:5, Insightful)

        by GiveBenADollar (1722738) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:32PM (#34476914)
        I for one have three bikes at home and only two cars, does that mean that the era of the car is over at my house? I really tire of these slanted news articles that crumble with the slightest application of common sense.
        • Re:Hype (Score:4, Insightful)

          by rezalas (1227518) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @03:11PM (#34477572)
          Not to mention PC just means Personal Computer, which is what phones are becoming. I wouldn't say that the PC will ever die, but new hardware trends will emerge over time and old technologies will be overtaken by newer more efficient ones. The Modern Desktop (what they call a PC) is a far cry from what it once was in the beginning and is hardly recognisable in some forms. The truth is that we're moving closer to having one set of portable PCs (smart phones) and a non-portable home-based central network (the Desktop) that controls all of your media. This might be the modern desktop, a new derivative, or it might be the xbox360/PS3 two more generations down the road. But to say that the 'PC' is dead or it's era is coming to an end is short sighted at best.
        • Re:Hype (Score:5, Insightful)

          by shadowfaxcrx (1736978) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @03:27PM (#34477802)

          Thank you.

          Of course non-PC devices are selling faster than PC's right now. Almost everyone already has a PC, so there isn't a large group going out in the same time period to buy one. The same can't be said about tablets and smartphones.

          • by Xtifr (1323)

            Almost everyone already has a PC, so there isn't a large group going out in the same time period to buy one.

            And for people who live alone in their parent's garage, that's all that needs to be said, but for families (which are actually a fairly large segment of the population, outside of geekdom), there's another factor, which is that while before, they may have needed several PCs, now they may be able to get by with one PC and several tablets and/or smartphones. So there may well be a decrease in PC use, even if it won't affect anyone on slashdot.

            Another factor is that after the public reaction to Vista, MS was

        • I really tire of these slanted news articles that crumble with the slightest application of common sense.

          At least all the yammering about "the cloud" seems to have decreased. I thought they'd never shut up about how computers were going to disappear completely. And it's been a while since I heard anyone proclaim that games were completely dead and downloadable content on the wii was going to be the only thing you'd be able to buy in a month.

        • Re:Hype (Score:5, Insightful)

          by Locke2005 (849178) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @03:42PM (#34478070)
          The car era will never be over because it's really hard to make out in the back of a bicycle. Likewise, the PC era will never be over because it's really hard to fap to a video on a 4 inch screen.
        • by node 3 (115640)

          Yes, because your garage is indicative of everyone's. Also, children have bikes and no cars.

          And unlike your example, this is a changing tend and not just a snapshot of a mostly static relationship. The smart phone and tablet are rising and seems poised to eclipse the PC. This isn't terribly surprising to most people, but I fully expect Slashdot to completely miss the significance of this. Even once the PC is dethroned, the stereotypical slashdotter will still live and die by theirs.

          It's also important to no

      • by ifrag (984323)

        And no consideration of how many of those devices are new users compared to existing users just upgrading to the next version. Maybe the typical lifetime of these devices is shorter than a PC. PC's are typically upgradeable where these devices are usually just the package deal, so not every PC user looking to expand their capabilities need buy a new PC.

        Besides, there's not even netcraft confirmation! Clear proof the PC is not dying.

      • Yeah, yeah.

        Laptops have been selling better than desktops for about 3 years now, but it hasn't killed the desktop usefulness. Likewise I doubt phones or tablets can replace the need for desktops.

      • by Sancho (17056) *

        Also, do you know anyone that just uses smartphones and tablets but never PCs or laptops? Didn't think so.

        I come damned close, though, in my personal life. At work, I have to use a keyboard to get anything done (though conceivably, I could use an iPad connected to a bluetooth keyboard.) Most of my computer use at home is fairly light and based on consuming content, and as such, an iPad is perfect except for two little problems:

        1) The iPad currently requires the use of a computer at least once (to activate) and any time you want to back it up. I think this will eventually be addressed, but it hasn't been high

      • by MrHanky (141717)

        Looks like CmdrTaco has gone full retard today. The OMG KDE IS DIEING story, and this?

      • Re:Hype (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Hijacked Public (999535) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @03:02PM (#34477402)

        Slashdot makes this same mistake every single time a story like this goes on the front page. Every time.

        The report is from a marketing firm. Their audience is other marketing types who make reports to business types. That lot is concerned about growth because growth is where they can make money. Selling things in markets that are growing faster than competition can enter, which means profit margins can stay comfortably high.

        Once growth falls off and capacity catches up, things get competitive. Margins dwindle and the kinds of companies that pay people to read marketing reports can no longer survive.

      • Agreed... further support of your point that this is just hype:
        • Phones are typicaly single-user devices while PCs are often shared among a household.
        • The 2-year lifecycle dictated for phones by wireless contracts inflates these statistics quite a bit compared to the more "optional" lifespan of a computer
        • Over the last 5-10 years, the gap between an "average" PC/laptop and the hardware requirements needed to run the latest version of Windows has shrunk significantly. (Remember having to upgrade your hardware
    • by Z00L00K (682162)

      Just because something changes from #1 to #2 doesn't mean that the era is at an end.

      Compare to radio stations - they are around and kicking even though TV, video and the internet has come.

      And someone that buys a phone/pad or whatever probably already has a PC.

      • by treeves (963993)

        I suppose that when they say "The era of X is over" they mean the era when X *is dominant* is over. They're not saying X will be no more. Yes, we still have radio, but it is no longer our primary means of receiving entertainment and news. (and hasn't been for quite a while). ...Or they're just finding a way to spin some numbers to make it dramatic.

    • Re:Oh happy day (Score:4, Insightful)

      by RabbitWho (1805112) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:29PM (#34476864) Homepage Journal
      Right.. I feel like complaining about the fact that smart phones and ipads etc. ARE personal computers.. but then someone will punch me in the face.
      • Right.. I feel like complaining about the fact that smart phones and ipads etc. ARE personal computers.. but then someone will punch me in the face.

        I'm not sure if this is the earliest example, but I had one of these babies and I might be biased...

        http://www.playretro.co.uk/hardware/sinclair_zx_spectrum_box.jpg [playretro.co.uk]

      • Right.. I feel like complaining about the fact that smart phones and ipads etc. ARE personal computers

        If applications for a computing device need the device manufacturer's approval before they will run, I call the device an "appliance", not a computer. For example, Apple iDevices are appliances. So are video game consoles and Android phones on AT&T. On the other hand, other Android devices are computers, as are Nokia N900 phones and desktop and laptop PCs.

    • Re:Oh happy day (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Anthony Mouse (1927662) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:34PM (#34476974)

      Don't get your hopes up. They're talking about shipments, not installed base.

      People pretty much stopped buying new PCs once they had a Core 2 Duo or faster. It isn't that no one is using PCs anymore, it's that no one is buying a new one because the old one is still plenty fast.

      Incidentally, you can expect the same thing to happen in phones in a couple of years. Once you have a phone which is fast enough to play video and has a battery that lasts all day, the biggest improvements are going to come as software update and you won't care about the hardware any more than you currently care whether you have a 2.6GHz CPU vs. a 3GHz CPU -- both are fast enough to do whatever so nobody cares anymore.

      • Yeah but a desktop stays pretty still all day. Only the keyboard and mouse get wear and tear and are easily replaced. I beat the shit out of my mobile phone so I'll probably need a new one every two years regardless of the upgrade cycle.
      • by Sancho (17056) *

        Once you have a phone which is fast enough to play video and has a battery that lasts all day, the biggest improvements are going to come as software update and you won't care about the hardware any more than you currently care whether you have a 2.6GHz CPU vs. a 3GHz CPU -- both are fast enough to do whatever so nobody cares anymore.

        Except that wireless providers are historically terrible at providing software updates. Apple bucked this trend a bit, and some Android phones have gotten one or two updates. Carriers are still the gatekeepers for the vast majority of phones, though. They want to sell new hardware, not provide new software.

        • by w0mprat (1317953)

          Once you have a phone which is fast enough to play video and has a battery that lasts all day, the biggest improvements are going to come as software update and you won't care about the hardware any more than you currently care whether you have a 2.6GHz CPU vs. a 3GHz CPU -- both are fast enough to do whatever so nobody cares anymore.

          Except that wireless providers are historically terrible at providing software updates. Apple bucked this trend a bit, and some Android phones have gotten one or two updates. Carriers are still the gatekeepers for the vast majority of phones, though. They want to sell new hardware, not provide new software.

          All hope is not lost. If you have an Android phone it's only a matter of time before you root your handset go for a aftermarket ROM - probably when your warranty runs out in 12 months. Ironically the community builds of Android are often highly stable and usable sometimes less buggy than carrier software, and you get the latest and greatest features and performance. I have a HTC Magic running Android 2.2, this is hardware that was abandonded by HTC in late 2009 with no further than version 1.6, and it runs

    • by Luyseyal (3154)

      And World Community Grid.

      Just sayin...
      -l

      /IF, it happens at all. My PC makes a great space heater that saves humanity, even if nothing else.

    • This will probably mean the end of Microsoft as well. Likely the beginning of the Year of Linux on the desktop as well.

      I'm feeling pretty optimistic about IPv6 too!

    • The year of Linux on the desktop is the same year the the Desktop becomes irrelevant.

      This isn't about the death of the Desktop, just as the Mainframe hasn't died yet either. It is a shift in usage.
      The Mainframe was widely used across orgs including many smaller companies then the PC (and PC based servers) had slowly replaced them leaving the mainframe reserved to large companies who need the big horse power. A lot of mainframe companies have died or been merged and became less relevant Prime, Digital, leav

    • This will probably mean the end of Microsoft as well. Likely the beginning of the Year of Linux on the desktop as well.

      I realize you are being humorous due to the year of the desktop reference but some readers should consider the following.

      With respect to desktop and laptop personal computers mobile devices are complementary products not replacement products. Now tablets, they may be replacement products for netbooks.

      At least for regions of the world where people tend to own computers. In other regions the mobile devices are establishing a new market. Today's internet capable smartphone with downloadable apps is tomor

  • I dunno, man (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Pojut (1027544) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:26PM (#34476820) Homepage

    Even if smartphones and such sell more than their larger counterparts, I still don't see it happening that quickly. There's still a lot to be said of the experience of using a "PC" rather than an "app device", regardless of the equal or disparate capabilities between them.

    An example is writing...I'm not going to write on a bluetooh-keyboard-connected iPad for the same reason I wouldn't write on a netbook or a laptop; I need to feel centered, to feel like "OK body and mind, we're sitting down, and we're writing." I don't see being able to duplicate that feeling with an "app" device.

    • by sgage (109086)

      Well said, Pojut.

    • by Toe, The (545098) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:40PM (#34477086)

      More broadly: anything creative is better done on a computer than a tablet.

      A tablet (etc.) is for consumption of content. They rock for accessibility and convenience: just what you need when you are passively consuming content, such as reading or watching. Even gaming counts, as you are not putting anything in to the device: just getting entertainment out of it.

      But if you are trying to create something (prose, music, code, graphics, databases, and so on and so on), then a full-fledged computer is vastly superior.

      Maybe this will change someday, as the interfaces for devices improve and the apps develop. But in the short-term, I defy someone to create billboard-quality graphics, commercial-grade websites, or a publication-level novel on a tablet. I suppose it can be done, but it would be a heck of a lot easier with a full computer.

    • It kind of ignores the fact that people generally replace their phones every two years at most. A decent PC can last 5, even 10 years these days if the user isn't interested in games. So, by default phone sales are going to be at least 2x higher than PC sales, even if people spend more time and money on their PCs.

    • by baxissimo (135512)
      Nobody's saying PCs will go away any time soon (well, except maybe that sensationalist headline). But you have to ask yourself how many people have that same need you do, versus the number that, say, need to play Angry Birds? And even people who do need to write a lot, what is the balance of time spent in that activity vs more casual comsumption activities? If the aggregate demand for casual experiences outstrips that for serious productivity experiences, then it stands to reason devices that cater to th
    • by nlawalker (804108)

      I agree. Pen and paper, tablets, smartphones, etc. are all portable, but civilization still has desks, offices and workplaces for a reason.

    • There's nothing stopping anyone manufacturing a docking device which holds a portable device and extends it with keyboard, mouse and displaying on a decent sized monitor. The difference is that you're free to use it in other ways too.

      • by Locke2005 (849178)
        Then, if you could just extend it with more memory, a hard drive, and a faster CPU, it would be almost as useful as a PC!
  • Developer soup (Score:5, Insightful)

    by iONiUM (530420) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:27PM (#34476850) Homepage Journal

    While I'm all for new technology, we're also entering an era I like to call developer soup. Maybe I just coined that. In any case, there's no good way to target all the platforms anymore. You might argue HTML5, but really only Chrome is useful for that (right now), and many do not run Chrome. Many in fact, still use IE6/7/8 at corps.

    It kind of stinks, because before you could make an app for one platform and hit a lot of targets, but not anymore.. Android, iOS, BBOS, Windows, Linux, Mac, MeeGo, the diversity is difficult, at best, if you want an all encompassing app. Ah well, I guess HTML4 for now, HTML5 in 18 months.

    • There hasn't been that since, well, ever. Unix vs VMS in the 70's and 80's, Mac vs PC vs Sparc (aaah. The fun of endianness...)...

    • You might be thinking too 'inside the box' - for instance, PhoneGap handles pretty much every smartphone OS out there, plus Mac and PC. SO HTML 5 + CSS + JavaScript + (insert JS datahandling concept of choice) has become a VERY viable way of handling a write once then compile for platfom(s) of choice. It's not a solution for every problem, of course - I somehow doubt writing RageHD in HTML 5 is going to be a choice anytime soon. But for 75% of apps out there, it's a good, solid solution. And PhoneGap is

  • Read all about it in this arbitrarily nonsensical review guaranteed to increase page clicks here!
    • by countSudoku() (1047544) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:36PM (#34477010) Homepage

      Most awesome! May I also subscribe, multiple times, to your newsletter?

      I look forward to orphaning all the perfectly good hardware I own in favor of a paperless, flying-car world of handheld delights and not very good copy or pasting or printing... what's scanning? Well, that's something we used to do with a thing called a USB serial port that our plamtop vendors forgot to equip us with. Now we "scan" by taking a picture of the page you want copied, then upload it thru email to your facetwit account, then convert it into a textless PDF, and we're done... almost. Now, download it again on a real computer and print via an actual USB port connected to a printer(not over wireless where we lose many features), and we're done. Hooray, we are teh suck!

      Now, if you'll excuse me I'm off to purchase every doorknob at OSH...

  • by Sonny Yatsen (603655) * on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:29PM (#34476870) Journal

    Until smartphones and tablets displace the PC in being the platform where most of the work is done, I don't consider the PC Era to be over.

    • by johnlcallaway (165670) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:38PM (#34477042)
      Please mod up!!! If I need a full size monitor and keyboard in order to work 8 hours, I'd rather have a 'desktop' to begin with. My setup has two monitors, and a REAL keyboard and mouse, not the toy ones on most laptops, and I can't even begin to imagine the carpel tunnel and thumb pain that would skyrocket if iPads and such became work devices for people who type and use a mouse all day long, like developers and admins.

      The era of the PC can't be over anyway, the mainframe era hasn't ended yet.....
    • If I didn't need to do coding, I could handle pretty much all the business work I need to do on my iPad with iWork. It handles spreadsheets and word processing just fine with a docking station. And the amount of coding work I'm doing is decreasing every year as I focus more on the business side of the house.

    • Doesn't surprise me that there will be more smartphones. After all, phones are heading the way of all phones being smart phones and we are also heading the way of everyone having a personal phone. Wonderful, however that doesn't mean computers are going away. Thus far I've seen no indication that these devices are going to replace computers for work. Phones particularly but the iPad as well are devices well designed for consumption, not production. That's fine for play, not for work. I'm not just talking de

    • Define "work" in such a way that it is not PC centric and we may already be there.

      Are Linux Servers "PCs"?

      Are MySQL, Apache servers "PCs" ?

      Are Email, Messaging and chat "PC" ?

    • Well actually, the smartphone will be the PC. That is to say, you could create a docking station connected to keyboard, mouse, and video. Just plug in your phone and go. Should the phone ring, you speak with bluetooth headset or hands free. Now expand that to include a future wireless keyboard, mouse, and video connection. Think about that for a moment... The phone is always with you. You sit down in the plane, office desk, or restaurant and are presented with the option to wirelessly pair with the peripher

      • by Nemyst (1383049)
        And without your dock close at hand, you're stuck on a tiny screen with no physical keyboard. I'm sorry but the convenience of a hardware, full-sized keyboard and proper applications (not apps) should far outweigh the hip factor in corporate environments.
  • by MrEricSir (398214) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:29PM (#34476872) Homepage

    So can we declare 2012 the "Year of the Linux Smartphone"?

  • Steve Ballmer was seen pleading plaintively at the merciless slashdot crowd.
  • At work I still need a desktop machine for coding. But as an example, currently my dad has an iMac that I bought him a couple years ago. I bought him an iPad 3G for fathers day because he does travel a lot. Talking with him over thanksgiving, he rarely turns on his iMac any more. Only time he does is to update investments or work on his taxes. The rest of the time he uses the iPad with docking station.

    I still have my older Mac Mini hooked up to my TV. I have since 2005, but in the last year or so my X

  • by Stregano (1285764) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:33PM (#34476950)
    Tell that to the 10mil+ subscribers of WoW. With the new expansion getting released, WoW players are going nowhere. Tell the pro Starcraft players that as well. The average consumer doesn't use their pc much anyway, and most of that can be handled through their ps3 or phone now, so they might stop using it alot less.

    What about college students? So, how are they going to type up their exams now. On a smartphone? I think it would be absolutely horrid to write a thesus using a phone. Ouch.

    18-months? Really?

    Now, I consider myself an avid pc gamer, and I have no plans to move away from that anytime soon, plus the 6 cores are starting to roll out in larger numbers. 3-D technology is getting implemented more and more into PC's (I believe it is NVidia who is doing a bunch of stuff with it).

    The thing is that PC's can do so much more than a smartphone, and PC's are upgradable (not just software, but hardware) and it won't void your warranty (well I guess if you buy a PC from Dell or something it might since I don't know the rules with pre-made machines). The point is that as pc's evolve, you can easily evolve and adapt with the times by upgrading your PC. To do this with a smartphone means that you need to buy a new phone. Not all that smart if you ask me
    • I frankly don't see myself buying another desktop for home use unless I get back into video editing or 3D as hobby again. If I'm not working around code anymore in another 18 months, I may not be buying a new laptop either. I found two years ago my iPhone did about 90% of what I needed. The iPad seems to fill the other 10%.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      > What about college students? So, how are they going to type up their exams now. On a smartphone?

      I think you're missing the point here. The smart phone will *become* their PC. For typing up papers, yes, they'll have a wireless bluetooth keyboard and monitor. The smart phone stays in your pocket, and when you need those peripherals, you'll just sit down next to them. The computing device itself will be mobile, always with you.

      And mobile devices are getting increasingly powerful, and will soon be able

  • Kind of hard for the year of Linux on the desktop to come around when there are no more desktops
  • by billcopc (196330) <vrillco@yahoo.com> on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:35PM (#34476988) Homepage

    This is such an idiotic statement. There are already far more cell phones sold, smart or not, per year than PCs, and this has been true for nearly a decade. These phones are being replaced with "app-enabled devices" because it's getting nearly impossible to get a plain old phone - they just don't make them anymore. Even the $0 freebie has some sort of smartphone-like functionality. Hell, my old MotoRazr from 2004 had apps! Shiit Java apps, but still...

    The day you can sit down at an "app-enabled device" and professionally write software, code a business-class web site, edit video, design a mechanical blueprint, and play WoW, well that might be the end of the PC era. For now, and the next 10 years at least, we just have a lot of fussy gadgets.

    • by Luckyo (1726890)

      The "they don't make them anymore" feature phones still outsell smartphones by a very large margin. We're looking at about 4-5 times at the moment.

      But even if you count any "I can install a game on it" phone as a "smartphone" (you could do that in early 1990s), they still make a lot of mobile phones that don't even have a screen, much less a capability to install anything on it.

  • "an event that may signify the end of the PC-centric era"

    I think they overlook a few of factors:

    1) smart phones are undergoing a upgrade/replacement phase that isn't seen in the pc world. Outside of the gaming community, many people are fine with the core 2 duo they bought 3 years ago, but in the same period of time they would have replaced a smart phone at least once.

    2) many people have more than one smart phone - I have a work phone and a home phone, yet I only have one pc

    3) many people are smart phone b

    • I would have said the same thing a year ago, but today I find myself using mostly devices at home. I have a Mac Mini at home, but I've been using it hooked up to my TV for several years. Even then, I mostly use my XBox for streaming movies now from Netflix. I gave up my laptop at work to a new hire and have been using my iPad & iPhone since May for most of my work. I still have an iMac at the office. I use it for code reviews and I still step in to help fix things with a couple of our products that

  • If you create any content (even large blocks of text, much less cad, drawings, etc.), all the other devices suck terribly.

    But if you want to play games, listen to songs, watch videos, read what other people write, I agree.

  • Awesome (Score:5, Funny)

    by Hatta (162192) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:38PM (#34477050) Journal

    I'm sick of being politically correct.

  • Predicted to last longer than 18 Month

  • In other news...Linux will be huge on the desktop within the next 18 months.
  • Two years ago they said no one would use a PC, because netbook sales were through the roof. PCs were entirely dead. But people buy netbooks to supplement their PCs. Same with smartphones and tablets.

  • I for one welcome our new Chumby overlords.

    http://www.chumby.com/ [chumby.com]

  • Television example (Score:5, Interesting)

    by droidsURlooking4 (1543007) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @02:46PM (#34477164)
    Considering buying a new HDTV right now. Many are 'Internet Ready" which means it runs "apps". For a smartphone I suppose "apps" make sense but when I can just a good monitor and put a small Eee pc [newegg.com] behind it with hdmi, gigabit ethernet, basically the whole Internet and any "app" I want, those Internet Ready devices fall flat. Why would I limit myself to today's hyped snapshot of the Internet experience? I'll keep them in mind for my fridge though.
  • While they are computing devices I don't see why the comparison is being made. None of those devices are really true PC replacements in most senses of the word. Those are devices you use to get some work, or play, done when you don't have the luxury of a full-speed, full-size machine. In this sense they may as well include touch screen MP3 players and eReaders too.
  • That's because PCs last longer than smartphones, tablets and the like, and people own more of those devices than PCs. The people I know keep PCs for 5-6 years, yet they're replacing their smartphone every 18 months when their carrier offers an upgrade and may replace it more often if it gets broken. And if they have a tablet it's in addition to their smartphone, not in place of it. And then there's their company-issued phone, which is usually in addition to their personal one. Work PCs follow a similar 5-ye

  • The headline seems a bit melodramatic...

    Why? Because I know several tablet owners and smartphone owners, and not a single one of them would "exchange" their PC with these new gadgets. The mobile devices are more like supplementing their PC's, making private streaming and multimedia editing (among many other things) all the more relevant on a true PC.

    I really can't see this as the end of the PC era in any capacity. All these new devices do is make people more used to having the power of computing accessi
  • I thought the end of everything was in 2 years time (21-Dec-2012)

  • Think about it. Everyone wants easy access and control over their own info. What easier way to achieve this than a centralized home server?

    Want all of your music & movies & data in the "cloud"? Why not just have your own stable cloud at home that can sync & stream your data to all of your fragmented year-long-lifespan (disposable) mobile devices?

    If only someone made a cheap and reliable OS that could work as both a desktop and/or a server... Too bad MS has artificial remote connection limits

    • All that works just fine except for the cloud part. If you look in most ISP's contracts they don't allow you to run servers without buying a "business class" service.
  • PC's won't die. Terminology might change, but the PC will be around for a very long time.

    here's an example: PDA's "died" about 5 years ago. Smartphones were the future. and today we have iphones and android phones. the OS is different, and the hardware is a generation removed, the the key difference is that PDA's didn't have a cell phone transmitter/receiver.

    I was making skype calls over wifi on my iPAQ ~8 years ago. but, hey, PDA's are dead, right?

  • Supposing this is true, how is it significant? Development and research will still be done on PC, workstation, cluster, or supercomputer, etc. None of which interface with a 4" screen and crap keyboard. And somehow I find it incredibly unimportant that someone who uses such methods has a smartphone for MS Outlook. Something tells me they collaborate with peers in a more... effective manner.

    Maybe the only way this is important is if you're into the stock market and you time it right. Go short some Dell
  • What's a iPhone? A tiny PC, that's what. And a PC is a giant iPhone. The story here is that lots of people want to carry a small smart screen around with them, like we didn't know that. It's a good place for little apps, messaging, and small emails -- and making phone calls.

    But sometimes you want a 20 inch screen - or two of them. How much coding is done on the iPhone? How much graphics editing? Where would you want to write your thesis or read Wikipedia? Reading War and Peace on my smartphone is

  • What these "forecasters" don't seem to understand is that the PC market moves much more slowly. For all practical intents, I can use an upgraded desktop that I purchased in 2005 and have a decent computer that can run most needed applications. Sure, I might not be able to run Super Fancy Game 2011 on it, but for typical computer tasks like e-mail, word processing, browsing the internet, YouTube, etc. it works just fine. But lets consider the smartphone market in 2005. There were no widely used captive touch
  • It's true. More bags of M&Ms will ship in the next 18 months than all mobile devices combined. This certainly means the end of mobile computing!

    Seriously. I am not sure if these devices are all "replacing" PCs. Sure it may dent PC usage, but it's not exactly a cataclysm. I have 2 mobile devices and three PCs, and will likely buy another PC next year.

  • The ancient Mayans predicted this as well as Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce and that Uri spoon bendy guy. This is (for sure) the end of times!
  • Show me Netcraft confirms it or it doesn't happen...
  • by erroneus (253617) on Tuesday December 07, 2010 @03:36PM (#34477956) Homepage

    Sorry, but no. Nothing beats the keyboard for input. We write and write and write all day long. Touch screens are no substitute for a keyboard. There is no substitute for a keyboard yet. Even if they made a hat that lets you think words, it would still not replace the keyboard.

"Stupidity, like virtue, is its own reward" -- William E. Davidsen

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