Gulf Gusher Worst Case Scenario 799
An anonymous reader writes "Here's a listing of several scientific and economic guides for estimating the volume of flow of the leak in the Gulf of Mexico erupting at a rate of somewhere around 1 million barrels per day. A new video released shows the largest hole spewing oil and natural gas from an aperture 5 feet in diameter at a rate of approximately 4 barrels per second. The oil coming up through 5,000 feet of pressurized salt water acts like a fractionating column. What you see on the surface is just around 20% of what is actually underneath the approximate 9,000 square miles of slick on the surface. The natural gas doesn't bubble to the top but gets suspended in the water, depleting the oxygen from the water. BP would not have been celebrating with execs on the rig just prior to the explosion if it had not been capable producing at least 500,000 barrels per day — under control. If the rock gave way due to the out-of-control gushing (or due to a nuke being detonated to contain the leak), it could become a Yellowstone Caldera type event, except from below a mile of sea, with a 1/4-mile opening, with up to 150,000 psi of oil and natural gas behind it, from a reserve nearly as large as the Gulf of Mexico containing trillions of barrels of oil. That would be an Earth extinction event."
Oh god. (Score:5, Funny)
I Saw That (Score:4, Funny)
Wasn't this the movie that killed John Cusak's career?
Re:My Estimate ... (Score:5, Funny)
I don't understand, how many in Library of Congresses?
bad at math (Score:3, Funny)
4 BPS*24 hrs/day*60min/hr*60sec/min = 345 600 barrels per day, not 1 million.b
It's volume, dumbass . . . (Score:5, Funny)
use Volkswagen beetles, not LOCs.
Re:bad at math (Score:3, Funny)
Shame on you, dont you know that there is no place for real science or math when fear-mongering an ecological disaster? Had you not pointed that out, thousands would be up in arms about the 1 billion Bpd filling the gulf of Mexico. Oh wait, it is 1 million this week, 1 billion is next weeks number.
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:1, Funny)
"Extinction" is a very high bar to clear, except for losers like panda bears that are large enough to shoot and barely capable of reproducing without assistance.
Barely capable of reproducing without assistance can refer to many slashdot readers. However, you do make one good point:
(source [wikipedia.org])
The moral: Pandas are SUCH assholes!
This post was a volcano of punctuation marks (Score:5, Funny)
I think that the second half of this post says that that the oil leak is bad, or could cause the end of the world, or something. However, it's such a gusher of spastic sentence fragments that I can't quite be certain.
Someone should drop a containment dome over this guy's keyboard until he's learned to organize his thoughts.
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:5, Funny)
Most people would starve to death.
The obesity epidemic cured in one blow! Thanks BP, Transocean, and Halliburton!
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Exponential rate (Score:4, Funny)
There are 42 gallons, not 55, in a barrel of oil.
Not that it makes it any less of a disaster, but it is the correct number.
Ah, you're thinking in METRIC barrels, not IMPERIAL barrels
Re:This just doesn't make any sense... (Score:4, Funny)
Agreed. Personally, my reaction to the situation is "Eh, whatever." and will likely remain such right up until there's a flaming cloud of shit hanging overhead. Freaking the hell out never improves situations.
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:5, Funny)
Pfff, that can’t happen until after Revelation 8:7.
Re:My Estimate ... (Score:3, Funny)
So, at a rate of 4 barrels per second, there is a library of congress worth of oil being dumped into the Gulf about every 47 hours.
Can we have that converted to the Firkin/Furlong/Fortnight system of units please?
Re:This post was a volcano of punctuation marks (Score:3, Funny)
They did! That was their failsafe, but he uses DVORAK!
Re:It's volume, dumbass . . . (Score:3, Funny)
Re:a prophecy fulfilled (Score:3, Funny)
Meh. I won’t be worried about that until verse 7 happens...
The first angel sounded his trumpet, and there came hail and fire mixed with blood, and it was hurled down upon the earth. A third of the earth was burned up, a third of the trees were burned up, and all the green grass was burned up.
Re:bad at math (Score:3, Funny)
4 BPS? My god, look at the disaster caused by just 1 BP. Certainly we don't need 4 of them.
Re:Oh god. (Score:5, Funny)
I'm in Florida so I'm stealing a Cessna 172 and flying to the Bahamas! My last moments will be sipping a beer watching the fireworks from the dock of the Big Game Club in Bimini. Who's with me?
For some reason, spending my last moments alive with a really hot woman is better. If life on this planet was about to die, I might actually stand a chance.
Re:It's volume, dumbass . . . (Score:1, Funny)
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:3, Funny)
The other other white meat.
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:5, Funny)
"Extinction" is a very high bar to clear, except for losers like panda bears that are large enough to shoot and barely capable of reproducing without assistance.
You realize that you just described most overweight geeks, nerds and dweebs on the planet, don't you?
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:5, Funny)
But what if, when Jesus said "and the first shall be last, and the last shall be first", he was talking about those angels? ;)
Clearly he was describing a LIFO queue data structure, not angels.
Re:It's volume. . . (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Reality Check (Score:4, Funny)
Re:My Estimate ... (Score:5, Funny)
Is that in Imperial or Metric?
First one, then the other.
Re:Oh god. (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Oh god. (Score:3, Funny)
For some reason, spending my last moments alive with a really hot woman is better. If life on this planet was about to die, I might actually stand a chance.
Wally: "This is gonna be great."
Dilbert: "What are you talking about? It's gonna be like living under martial law in some kind of post-apocalyptic nightmare."
Wally: "Exactly. Do you know how desperate women get under martial law in some kind of post-apocalyptic nightmare?"
Dilbert: "I guess I haven't studied it as extensively as you."
Wally: "You got that right."
Dilbert [youtube.com]
Re:Oh god. (Score:3, Funny)
Wait, you're not a hot woman? Sorry, this plane is full.
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:4, Funny)
Unless all written knowledge is wiped clean (I doubt it), then our books would still be around to transfer the knowledge.
At least, until Amazon decides to remove them from our Kindles.
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:3, Funny)
Economic calculations: (Score:3, Funny)
Cost to drill well and get oil to coastal refinery: $1 Bn
Daily cost to run the well and pump oil to refinery: $150 K
Average value of oil over repayment period: $85 / barrel
Prevailing Interest Rate (opportunity cost of using the cash to drill and run the well): 10% -- this roughly BP's return-on-assets for 2010
Years to repay: 3
We can figure that the well would have to produce around 16K to 17K barrels per day to pay for itself at the end of 3 years of operation.
These numbers are still rough, but it gets us in the ballpark. 5 years takes you to 13K barrels per day. 2 years is about 20K barrels per day.
If you assume that the well could expel 2x to 3x per day than a controlled well, you get a range of 26k to 60k barrels per day being spewed into the gulf.
That's 1.8M US gallons of oil per day.
Someone else needs to take over from here. How many gallons of water does a gallon of oil pollute in this scenario? 100 gallons of water plluted per gallon of oil?
That means 180M gallons of water polluted per day. Or 18B gallons of water polluted by the end of 100 days when we expect the oil to stop flowing due to the new well being drilled.
If that is polluting the water to a depth of 100 feet and there are 7.5 gallons of water per cubic foot, you get almost 1 square mile of water polluted to a depth of 100 feet. But we already know that the slick is over 10,000 square miles on the surface. Either the depth of the pollution is far less than 100 feet or the gallons of oil being spewed is far greater than 10's of 1000's of gallons per day and is well into the 100's of thousands of gallons per day range.
In any case TFA's reasoning about the tar suspended in the water seems to be bourne out by the fact that there are many areas where the surface slick has not reached the shore but there are tall balls washing up on it.
I would guess that TFA is generally correct and that what we are facing is, in fact, a "volcano" of oil.
I thank the Lord each day.. for the Apocalypse (Score:3, Funny)
The population is greatly decreased,
and now the odds are greatly increased,
that I may someday get a chance
to kiss your lips.
I thank the Lord each day,
for the Apocalypse.
Folks are mostly disfigured or dead,
but sugar I won't let it go to my head
My Mammas face has dripped down into the dirt,
but I'm still chasing chittlins, whiskey and skirt.
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:5, Funny)
panda bears that are large enough to shoot
But after eating and before leaving?
Re:Oh god. (Score:3, Funny)
What part of "...not ever if you were the last man on Earth!" don't you understand?
I have never had that said to me.... yet.
I keep being told I am a 'nice guy'. I need to cure this nice guy syndrome as fast as possible.
Re:It's volume, dumbass . . . (Score:5, Funny)
4.45 OSPs/fortnight.
easily approximated by looking at your fingers
Note: Precision of the approximation may be greater for shop teachers.
Re:Oh god. (Score:3, Funny)
Don't worry, everyone's really hot when they're covered in burning oil!
Re:Oh god. (Score:5, Funny)
I keep being told I am a 'nice guy'. I need to cure this nice guy syndrome as fast as possible.
Getting drunk and stealing a plane might be a good place to start.
Re:Actually it wouldn't... (Score:3, Funny)
No, no, White meat, not Wight meat!
Re:Oh god. (Score:4, Funny)
Yes in fact we are all going to die. ... Most of us in 30 to 50 years but yes we are all going to "die."
But, but... that's not supported by statistics!
Only about 50% of all the people from all History has ever died, and those that did, died just once!
Re:Who is this guy... (Score:3, Funny)
Hey, it doesn't stop all of the software engineers here giving their unqualified opinions on climatology.
Or software engineering, for that matter.
Re:Oh god. (Score:3, Funny)
Maybe not today or even next week....
....but soon, and for the rest of your life.
-Rick from Casablanca
Re:Just Think.. (Score:5, Funny)
I just had a troubling thought... imagine telling them how the sun works.
I can see it now: A mad rush to mail/telephone their representatives to ban that burning thermonuclear device in the sky.