The Dying PC Market 307
An anonymous reader writes "The PC's role in Japanese homes is diminishing, as its once-awesome monopoly on processing power is encroached by gadgets such as smart phones that act like pocket-size computers, advanced Internet-connected game consoles, digital video recorders with terabytes of memory
NEC's annual PC shipments in Japan shrank 6.2 percent to 2.72 million units in 2006, and the trend is continuing into the first quarter of fiscal 2007 with a 14 percent decline from a year earlier. Sony's PC shipments for Japan shrank 10 percent in 2006 from a year earlier.
"The household PC market is losing momentum to other electronics like flat-panel TVs and mobile phones," said Masahiro Katayama, research group head at market survey firm IDC.
"Consumers aren't impressed anymore with bigger hard drives or faster processors. That's not as exciting as a bigger TV," Katayama said. "And in Japan, kids now grow up using mobile phones, not PCs. The future of PCs isn't bright.""
fast enough (Score:5, Interesting)
Since my PC died the other week (Score:5, Interesting)
In fact, I'm typing this comment with it.
It works well, especially since the wiiware USB keyboard code upgrade, but for some reason, I can't reply to my gmail messages or view videos made with a more recent version of flash... hopefully these issues will be resolved soon with an update.
For the rest of my online needs, I use the workplace computer.
report from the field (Score:5, Interesting)
In the big electronics stores, like K's or Yamada Denki, PCs aren't the big draws - it's other stuff, including TVs.
Out of my middle school students, many of them don't use PCs on a regular basis and many of the high school students I know don't either (though I am in basically the Arkansas of Japan, but even when I lived in Osaka, I felt like this was true). Those that do don't have their own, they use their parent's. Most of what we do on a PC, including casual games, e-mail, and web surfing (and increasingly other things - my cell phone has a decent 2MB camera [a friend of mine has the summer's top of the line au phone with a 5MB], an MP3 player with iTunes like software ([au's lismo service]), Japanese/English dictionary, and simple Japanese OCR).
It's part of the reason why the web channel on the web was a big deal. For Americans, it just meant we might not have had to get out of bed to check Gmail, but for a lot of Japanese is was an important vector onto the Internet.
That said, when I went to college in Japan a lot of my friends ending up buying laptops or using them extensively in the school's various computer labs. And at work now, everyone can use a PC and desktop publishing / graphics (granted, I work at a town cultural hall, so they might come to the job with some of those skills already). One of my coworkers is even a Mac guy and another, the main graphics guy is thinking about upgrading from his Toshiba to a MacBook. Stuff like Macs and the iPod are going more ground here.
And the internet culture here is still pretty big - most people my age know about 2chan, even if they don't post and the big drama from two years ago was Densha Otoko, based on a supposedly true story about a nerdy anime fan who met a beautiful girl, began dating her, and asked for help on 2chan. You can still get 2chan's mascot, noma neko dolls around as well. Mixi (an invite only Japanese facebook site) and other internet groups are still pretty big here, so it's not like the things computers represent are going away, but rather PCs like devices, like phones and game consoles, are taking their place.
Which is why (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Yeah, well (Score:3, Interesting)
"They" don't want to; "they" are home users.
None of those could exist without the PC.
Prior to the PC, a lot of that stuff was done on UNIX workstations. And after the PC stops being the darling of home users, it will be done on UNIX workstations again.
The fact that home computers and professional workstations are the same right now is a temporary state of affairs.
Re:Yeah, well (Score:3, Interesting)
None of those could exist without the PC.
I think the days of home PCs are numbered. Considering that cell phones and PDAs are now more powerful than "supercomputers" from 30 years ago, I see a dedicated box called a "PC" will dissolve, and instead the functionality will evolved into other devices.
I have a powerful computer at my house that I rent from my cable TV company. It has something like a 120 GB harddrive, a RISC processor, a clock that automatically changes with DST rules. It records audio and video. Has a GUI that is easy to navigate from my couch with about 10 buttons on a remote control. Anyway, my point is that its a computer, but nobody calls it a computer they call it a digital recorder, a cable box, a PVR or a DVR.
Video game consoles, cell phones, PDAs are computers, but people don't call those computers.
I see this trend increasing, where standalone computers will simply be a thing of the past, and their functionality will just be integrated into other things.
Actually, what is a "computer" anyway? A home PC seems to be some kind of box with video and audio for output to the human, and a keyboard and pointing device for the human to input to the computer. My DVR is not perceived as a "computer" because it does not have a keyboard or pointing device.
So, once we figure out how to get rid of this archaic technology called a keyboard and a mouse for input from a human into the device, then the computer as we know it is gone.
Re:Yeah, well (Score:2, Interesting)
Personally I'm thinking about a Nokia phone with an Internet package that allows me to use it "as a broadband modem" [sic] and a Nokia N810 Internet Tablet, essentially because of the "freedom" to futz with the thing. I'm not sure I really want to futz with the phone (really not cool if you mess that up) but I don't want to only have the applications they say I can have. Here in the UK I think this will actually be cheaper than an iPhone (admittedly not that much cheaper).
Again I actually think there are real advantages to having the "smart" bits of this setup in a separate box (so you can hold the phone to your head AND still read the display on the N810). Of course, this is more nerdish than an iPhone... and perhaps I'll still want santa to bring me an iPod Touch. Of course, the Nokia doesn't look geeky so I can always leave the N810 in my pocket if I don't want to come off as a doofus (I'll need to remember to keep my mouth shut too [grin]) But I also think that an N810 will be more useful for what I do (YMMV).
Hidden Computers... (Score:5, Interesting)
He asserted that computers were going the same way -- you might end up with dozens of powerful computers in your house, but you wouldn't call them that. You'd call them a "newspad" or a "TV" or a "reader" or whatever. They'd be invisible, with specialized interfaces for whatever task was at hand.
So far, his prediction appears to be on track.
Technology plateau (Score:3, Interesting)
The PC industry plateaued in the 1970s (miniframes and hobby computers), 1980s (death of 8-bit computers), 1990s (death of 8088 based PCs and 68000 series Macs), and we'll soon happen again, likely marked as the end of the Intel age. This is normal as technology doesn't develop in nice, easy to manage chunks. Moore's law just says that transistors will double every 18 months, not that everyone will have a use for all of them.
The growth in the market these days seems to be in microcontrollers, using designs that are becoming just as powerful as a PC without the OS tax. It is interesting to note that the trend is following the same software curve as before: authoring in assembler, migrating to simple microcode languages, stripped down OS (tiny Linux), custom OS (like Windows mobile smartphones and OS X on the iPhone). I wonder if the people writing the OS for these devices will realize that at one time Windows and DOS would fit on a few floppies.
Re:Hidden Computers... (Score:3, Interesting)
I wonder what things we take for granted now will be next to impossible in the future. All kinds of hardware mods, obviously. Changing OS, probably. Maybe even typing on a keyboard, who needs that when there's gestures and voice commands?
John Gage was right... (Score:2, Interesting)
xbox (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Yeah, well (Score:3, Interesting)
That's achievable - eyeglass monitors or Head mounted displays [ucf.edu]
And a full keyboard and a mouse.
For flat surfaces:
http://www.virtual-laser-keyboard.com/images/virtual-laser-keyboard-hand.jpg [slashdot.org]
Alternatively:
Senseboard - which doesn't project a keyboard at all [senseboard.com]
or
Lightweight eyetracker [qinetiq.com] with any number of On screen keyboards [google.com]
Well said - Saturated and Stagnant (Score:1, Interesting)
Also, I think the Windows interface, as a concept, has done all it can. We started with the DOS text interface, and anything up to a 286 handled that just fine. With graphical windows - you can add semitransparent windows, toolbars, right-click context menus, etc - but the basic OS interface is pretty fixed; and the computer has the power to handle it. The impetus with the run up from Win3.11 to 95, 98, XP, etc. was that the computer did not have the horsepower to meet the demand of the interface. (Remember screen redraws that could be a significant fraction of a minute? Especially AutoCad or print previews?) Now, computers breeze through that stuff.
I'm not sure what the next step will be. Voice interface? Context guessing (like Google tries to do)? 3D holographic? Virtual reality? Whatever it will be, that will probably be the driver for the next big advance in computers.
I used to think - the average Joe doesn't need a home computer. An embedded browser device that allows you to check your mail, compose simple office documents, and surf the web and read your email - that's all they need. However, the economics is such that there is no major cost savings in an appliance - the screen and keyboard are probably so much of the cost, that a crippled processor doesn't save you much. (Except maybe the OEM cost of Windows?) I suppose using the gaming console as the internet appliance bypasses that flaw in the argument. You buy something you need anyway, and it comes with whatever AJ would buy a computer for...
I think the computer of the future will "devolve". The focus will shift from the device and OS to the standards. The USB drive is a prime example. The standard "storage media" simply plugs into the standard interface. Watch for the same to happen with Ethernet. (It's pretty well there; think Apple Airport, NAS storage). Yourscreen device becomes a simple terminal - browser, basic appliance. your storage is a disk or several on your home network. Your printer, your camera, your scanner, your TV/PVR, speaker system, etc. If you have to do serious processing, you buy a server or 2 and plug them into the network.
All these devices are controlled via standard interfaces. We don't care what each embedded OS is, as long as we can do what we want with Web, Java, remote terminal protocols, streaming or whatever. Files are defined by the standard with which they are written - txt, jpg, mpg, mp3, xls, oo, avi, doc, pdf.
Re:PC/Vista sales are fine, Japan is problem (Score:3, Interesting)
Currency wise, thats a poor increase. (Score:2, Interesting)
Japan has exported its inflation by lending out trillions at less than one percent.
When you increase your currency circulation (ie numbers in spreadsheets) by 15 - 20% yearly, eventually something is going to crack, its like legalized mass counterfeiting.
This money hasnt come from wealth generation, just a print button set to 1000000000000 copies.