End of Moore's Law in 10-15 years? 248
javipas writes "In 1965 Gordon Moore — Intel's co-founder — predicted that the number of transistors on integrated circuits would double every two years. Moore's Law has been with us for over 40 years, but it seems that the limits of microelectronics are now not that far from us. Moore has predicted the end of his own law in 10 to 15 years, but he predicted that end before, and failed."
A law is an observation (Score:4, Informative)
Nope, nope, and nope (Score:3, Informative)
Secondly it's not so much a "law", as a consequence of how long it takes to amortize the cost of a fab plant.
Thirdly, it's tied to 2-D circuit layouts. If and when 3-D IC technology becomes practical, then all we need is 2^1/3 percent or about 22% linear shrink every year, which is somewhat more maintainable for a few more generations.
It's not a law it's an observation (Score:3, Informative)
Re:It's a law of econmics (Score:3, Informative)
Your point on economics is well taken. However, there is one aspect of physics in Moore's law - that the equations governing a MOS transistor scale with size. That is, if you make a transistor that is 1/2 the size in all dimensions, and you run it at 1/2 the voltage, it will behave exactly the same as the original. So there has always been a clear development path for doubling your transistor density - cutting the size in half.
Other technologies (internal combustion engines, batteries, etc) improve in fits and starts - sometimes dramatically - but not by the continuous scaling of a single parameter.
(This is in no way minimizing the enormous technical challenges of making and designing smaller and smaller transistors. It's just that you know that if you can figure out the fabrication, you know it will work.)
Moore's Law has nothing to do with CPU clock freq (Score:2, Informative)
Re:CPU speed already on the wane as consumer bait (Score:3, Informative)
Moore's Law is a law of economics, scale and progress.
The gist is that computing power at a given cost will double every 18 months. It does not matter if this progression is achieved by cranking the frequency (MHz rule) or by increasing the number of transistor and parallel processing (Core rule). This is all about the economics of processing power.
It comes from the fact that the industry transitions to a new, finer technology every 12-18 months and hence can build more, faster transistors in a given area of silicon.
The problem is that each new transition comes with new challenges and as long as the challenge is not overcome or at least has a roadmap to a solution, there is a risk the progression stops here. This happens every few years. This mostly tells us they have plans for progressions for the next 10-15 years and unless we have newer discoveries in the mean time (which has always happened so far), we will not overcome this limit. 10 years is a long time in term of scientific discoveries...
Moore's Law as Energizer Bunny: not about silicon. (Score:4, Informative)