Toyota Going 100% Hybrid By 2020

autofan1 writes "Toyota's vice president in charge of powertrain development, Masatami Takimoto, has said cost cutting on the electric motor, battery and inverter were all showing positive results in reducing the costs of hybrid technology and that by the time Toyota's sales goal of one million hybrids annually is reached, it 'expect margins to be equal to gasoline cars.' Takimoto also made the bold claim that by 2020, hybrids will be the standard drivetrain and account for '100 percent' of Toyota's cars as they would be no more expensive to produce than a conventional vehicle."

Re:All Cars or Trucks Too?

[Major Blud]

It sounds like a reasonable goal, if they can first reach their earlier goal of having hybrids available for all models by 2012.... http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/apr2 006/gb20060403_308133.htm [businessweek.com]

Re:All Cars or Trucks Too?

[Charcharodon]

Actually an electric drive train on trucks and SUV's would be more desireable than your typical transmission that we've had for the last 40-50 years. Electric motors make the most torque at zero RPMs for much better load/towing. There is also once they make the switch to independently powered wheels (an electric motor built into the wheel) you could have much more interesting steering suspension options since there would be no drive shafts getting in the way.

As far as they've said they mean all their vehicles will have hybrid drivetrains. The only sad thing is going to be our grandkids asking us what it means to drive "stick".

Re:Batteries

[esampson]

From Toyota's own website (http://www.toyota.com/about/environment/technolog y/2004/hybrid.html [toyota.com])

Is there a recycling plan in place for nickel-metal hydride batteries?

Toyota has a comprehensive battery recycling program in place and has been recycling nickel-metal hydride batteries since the RAV4 Electric Vehicle was introduced in 1998. Every part of the battery, from the precious metals to the plastic, plates, steel case and the wiring, is recycled. To ensure that batteries come back to Toyota, each battery has a phone number on it to call for recycling information and dealers are paid a $200 "bounty" for each battery.

So I suppose that yes, they will have a battery recycling program in place since it is doubtful they would discontinue their current one.

Re:Batteries

[Devil's Advocate]

From Toyota's web site:

Is there a recycling plan in place for nickel-metal hydride batteries?

Toyota has a comprehensive battery recycling program in place and has been recycling nickel-metal hydride batteries since the RAV4 Electric Vehicle was introduced in 1998. Every part of the battery, from the precious metals to the plastic, plates, steel case and the wiring, is recycled. To ensure that batteries come back to Toyota, each battery has a phone number on it to call for recycling information and dealers are paid a $200 "bounty" for each battery.

Re:Batteries

[Charcharodon]

They use big NiMH battery packs. If you were to eat one about the only thing it would do is maybe make you constipated. They are about as toxic as a hotdog, oh wait never mind, hotdogs are pretty damn toxic, but oh so good.

Really though NiMH batteries are some of the more environmentally friendly battery types out there compaired to all the rest.

Re:All Cars or Trucks Too?

[Anonymous Coward]

The problem with in wheel motors is that they have a really high un-sprung weight. This means that on bumps, the momentum that the wheel/motor has will be hard to stop with a shock absorber and thus the tire will lift off the ground resulting in poor cornering / braking and a rough and noisy ride. Having an individual motor for each wheel mounted to the car's frame that has a small axle to the wheel is required for decent performance.

in hub motors are bad, unless they are really light, like around 4-8kg.

Hybrids can be better at highway speeds too

[dfoulger]

Your assumption that hybrids are "dead weight" at highway speeds is wrong. I get my best hybrid mileage on the highway (often at or over 70 MPG). It doesn't have to be that way. A hybrid designed for torque rather than economy might now do any better than a standard engine at highway speeds, but a hybrid designed for economy rather than torque (like my Honda Insight) does.

Re:Hmm...

[esampson]

From Toyota's own site (http://www.toyota.com/about/environment/technolog y/2004/hybrid.html [toyota.com])

How long does the Prius battery last and what is the replacement cost?

The Prius battery (and the battery-power management system) has been designed to maximize battery life. In part this is done by keeping the battery at an optimum charge level - never fully draining it and never fully recharging it. As a result, the Prius battery leads a pretty easy life. We have lab data showing the equivalent of 180,000 miles with no deterioration and expect it to last the life of the vehicle. We also expect battery technology to continue to improve: the second-generation model battery is 15% smaller, 25% lighter, and has 35% more specific power than the first. This is true of price as well. Between the 2003 and 2004 models, service battery costs came down 36% and we expect them to continue to drop so that by the time replacements may be needed it won't be a much of an issue. Since the car went on sale in 2000, Toyota has not replaced a single battery for wear and tear.

So it isn't as though you will be replacing the battery every few years. 7 years without a single replacement makes me suspect that if you bought a new Prius now the battery would last on average at least 10 to 15 years (since the batteries being installed now are even better than those installed 7 years ago).

Also because of Toyota's battery recycling program paying $200 per battery (though I expect that would drop as the cost of the batteries get lower) you won't, or at least shouldn't, have any form of disposal charge.

Re:I'm sorry but

[ect5150]

Maybe because batteries can be recycled? http://www.batteryrecycling.com/ [batteryrecycling.com]

Re:Hmm...

[MojoRilla]

Well, if you had actually read yesterday's article [wired.com], you would have seen that the mileage estimate on your regular civic has also dropped. The Prius combined estimate dropped 16%, while the non hybrid Civic dropped 12%. Even after the milage drop, the Prius still gets 58% better combined fuel economy than your Civic (46 mpg vs. 29 mpg combined).

Of course, these are just estimates, and your mileage may vary.

Re: '100 percent' of Toyota's cars

[xealot]

Why not? The new Lexus 600h has a 5 litre V8 hybrid engine, so I don't see why they wouldn't put something similar in trucks designed for towing/4-wheeling. There's plenty of power/torque to be had from this kind of setup.

Re:All Cars or Trucks Too?

[pebs]

If it has an electric drive train, then yes it does mean no stick, other than maybe stop, forward and backwards. You are correct though they could create a gas/electric hybrid that has a typical standard/automatic drive train. When they say hybrid it could be any of a variety of configurations.

The Honda Insight and the earlier Honda Civic had manual transmissions. Of course that is an "assist" type hybrid and does not run on the electric motor alone. Those options are no longer available in the Civic, and the Insight has been discontinued. We'll see if they reintroduce these options in the future.

Then don't make it a cash bounty

[homer_ca]

They already do this. Many recyclable car parts have a "core" charge. It works like a bottle or can deposit. You either bring in the old battery when you buy a new one, or you pay the core charge and get it refunded if you bring back the old battery. Simple.

Re:What a dreadful idea

[djmurdoch]

Driving long stretches on the highway there is no braking involved and air resistance is high. You are limited by the power of the gas engine (because you'd drain your battery if you tried to use it continually), so most of the time the weight of the electric portion is a disadvantage.

At constant speeds weight doesn't matter. It's only when you're accelerating that you pay the cost of the weight, and (in a hybrid) you recover some of it when you brake.

At constant highway speeds you don't need a lot of power from your engine, so having a small gas engine (like a hybrid) gives better efficiency than having a great big engine which is hardly being used at all.

Re:What a dreadful idea

[ArsonSmith]

Unless you drive the exact same speed on perfectly flat ground for the entire trip what you are saying isn't true.

It is more than just regenerative braking. Every time you slow from 75 to 70 then speed back up, the hybrid engine will help. Need to pass that slow poke in a hurry? stomp the gas pedal and the hybrid will assist you in speeding up, get pass him and the recharge cycle will kick in to recoup some of the waste used to speed up in the first place.

Re:Hybrids can be better at highway speeds too

[Anonymous Coward]

Is that 70MPG for a brief period of time (i.e, going downhill) or 70MPG average for the whole trip? Either way, the good highway mileage is more likely due to low-rolling-resistance tires and good aerodynamics, and not really from the hybrid powertrain (which is just dead weight when traveling at a constant speed)

If you were to hypothetically take a prius, rip out its electric motor and battery pack, and tinker with the internal combustion engine so it gives its maximum efficiency @ 60mph - You'd end up with a car that would have even *better* highway MPG than before.

Re:unsprung weight won't stop it

[Moofie]

"So the unsprung weight situation isn't definitely worse, and could sometimes be a bit better."

You think a 75 hp electric motor is going to be lighter than an axle? Your gravity is broken. Yes, I see your point. No, I don't think you're correct.

Re: '100 percent' of Toyota's cars

[DragonWriter]

That's great, except that their new cash cow is trucks. I don't think Tundras are included in that prediction.

Why not? Its not like there is something magic about "truck" that makes a hybrid drivetrain less useful, and Toyota already makes hybrid SUVs.

Re:Conservation alternative

[lgw]

If you think carbon release is important, coal is by far the place to focus your concern. America generates more CO2 from burning coal to produce electrical power than all the CO2 generated from all transportation combined. A lot of change could be made in 12 years (without asking anyone to lower their standard of living) by simply replacing coal-burning power plants.

Nuclear power may have it's risks, but those risks are well studied, and even if every single American nuclear power plant had a Three mile Island style meltdown all in the same year, the collective environmental impact would still be less than normal coal usage. (And of course modern nuclear power plant designs make that kind of meltdown physically impossible.)

Re:All Cars or Trucks Too?

[zippthorne]

Yeah I did the bicycle thing for a bit. It worked really well when the one-way commute was only three and a half miles. I'm not sure I'm patient enough to do much further than twice that though.

I think the main barrier to bicycling though is that it's not considered at all when building roads, so you end up with roads with no shoulder, and maybe a sidewalk. Neither option is really safe for a daily commute. (although the second is safe for the cyclist...) There really needs to be a grade-separated bicycle lane, at least for main roads. I think more people would bike if they weren't putting their lives in their hands every time they did.

Prius experience...

[dtjohnson]

After owning a 2006 Prius for a little over a year, I can say that a hybrid is about more than just miles per gallon. Yes, the mpg is good but that isn't the only good thing about them. Some other good things:

1) The electric/hybrid drive is nicer to drive in traffic because the electric drive makes it pull away from a stop much more cleanly and strongly than a non-hybrid drive with no revving-up motor.

2) The wear-and-tear stuff like like brake pads, mufflers, batteries, starter motors, clutch, transmission, starter motor, etc. is either gone or morphed into a much longer lifespan due to reduced wear. The only significant maintenance items on the Prius are oil changes and tire replacement.

3) The battery gives you a backup power source. I've already managed to run out of gas and the battery lets you keep on going for a couple of more miles to the freeway exit which was very cool.

4) The car can run a lot of electrical gear (if you get an inexpensive inverter) if you go car camping since it is basically a very quiet, efficient 60 hp generator. Toyota should offer an inverter option and a built-in outlet plug on the side for RV owners who tow one behind the RV.

5) The Prius is very cheap to drive.

6) The Prius has a very nice interior space layout (for a small car) with much more legroom than is typical thanks to its small transverse motor.

Re:Hybrids can be better at highway speeds too

[evilviper]

Your assumption that hybrids are "dead weight" at highway speeds is wrong.

No, it's exactly correct.

I get my best hybrid mileage on the highway (often at or over 70 MPG).

Mileage, yes. "Hybrid," no. Your car's hybrid system (electric motor/generator) shuts off at 35MHz, and can't possibly help your gas mileage, in any way, above that speed.

Re:More likely hybrids will be gone by then.

[buraianto]

Hybrid sales have increased year over year in every month since 2004, at least. http://www.greencarcongress.com/images/2007/05/03/ hybrid_sales_apr07_1.png [greencarcongress.com]

Re:Hmm...

[Anonymous Coward]

Hmm, you should check your facts. My 93 civic sedan, automatic, with a smaller 1.5 liter engine and no V-tec does the 0-60 deed in 8.8 seconds.

Re:All Cars or Trucks Too?

[nasch]

A Toyota Prius is a gas assisted electric car. The electric motor drives the wheels and the gas motor powers the batteries.

Actually in Toyota's HSD [wikipedia.org] the gas engine is connected to an electric motor-generator. I don't fully understand everything on the WP page, but it's not like the gas engine drives an alternator which charges the batteries, while the batteries discharge to power the motors. The ICE is connected directly to one of the electric motors.

And just for some pedantic fun, it's "braking energy" not "breaking energy", and "all intents and purposes" not "all intensive purposes". The latter seems like a fairly common mistake.

Re:Hybrids can be better at highway speeds too

[dfoulger]

You are clearly thinking Prius rather than Insight. The Insight's electric motor/generator operates at all speeds above 20 MPH (and under some conditions under 20MPH). When I reach highway speeds and feather back on the accelerator to match the speed I want to go (usually the same as the traffic around me), the electric motor draws on the batteries on uphills and charges it whenever the power output of the engine exceeds the power required to maintain speed. There are many ways to design a hybrid drivetrain. Some, like the Prius, are optimized to give great mileage in the city and don't significantly improve on that mileage on the highway. Some, like the Insight, give great mileage on the highway and merely good mileage in the city. Others improve performance at the expense of mileage. I know. I own one and have tested most of them.

Re:What a dreadful idea

[AaronW]

You are mistaken. My Prius routinely uses its electric motor at freeway speeds, alternating between charging the battery or supplementing the gasoline engine while driving a steady speed on a flat highway. The only limitation above 42MPH is that the gasoline engine must also turn to prevent one of the motors from spinning too fast. The electric motor will often assist the gasoline engine at freeway (and above) speeds. This is clearly visible on the display. When driving up a steep grade the electric motor certainly kicks in as I can see the battery charge drop at freeway speeds. When accelerating to overtake another vehicle the electric motor almost always kicks in to assist.

Re:Conservation alternative

[notamisfit]

That's a meltdown, all right, but Three Mile Island was a joke by comparison. There was some core melting, but it never left the containment vessel. I think the total radiation released to the atmosphere was something like 20 curies of iodine (1 curie will give a radiation dose of ~1 REM from a distance of 1 meter. Radiation doses lower than 5 REM per year are thought not to cause any significant risk of cancer, and radiation poisoning levels are in hundreds of REM. Just for comparison.)

I operated pressurized water reactors when I was in the US Navy, and I'm convinced that a properly trained staff is more than capable of safely handling any potential incident involving one. While TMI and Chernobyl were disasters, the lessons learned are carried on.

Re:"Smart Chips" In These Batteries Too

[Linagee]

Google for "Smart Battery Specification" (SBS). It's real. I've seen it in action. (Dell D600 laptop.)

Re:What a dreadful idea

[toddestan]

At constant speeds weight doesn't matter. It's only when you're accelerating that you pay the cost of the weight, and (in a hybrid) you recover some of it when you brake.

That's true as air resistance goes, but the extra weight is going to increase the friction between the car and the road (not to mention the internal friction in the car between the wheels and the rest of the car), so the extra weight will drop your economy a bit.